It’s hard to believe a whole year has flown by that we were all studiously predicting The Tree of Life and Hugo to win Best Picture at the New York Film Critics only to then see that award go to The Artist. They aren’t as off base with Oscar as you might think. For instance, our trusty Nate Silver Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has compiled nominees chart that says if you win the New York Film Critics you have a 90% chance of getting of nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. 90% if you win Best Actor, and 90% if you win animated feature. Winning both, the percentage drops to 40%. Best Actor has a slightly better percentage, 42%.
ENTER OUR PREDICTIONS CONTEST!
To see how the winners have matched up with Oscar check out our handy dandy chart at the bottom of this post, which also features Los Angeles. Last year LA went a different way than the entire universe and chose The Descendants. But Oscar, well, he went with the status quo on down the line.
You can see that LA and NY can agree and still Oscar might go a different way but if you had to pick between the two groups, New York has a better batting average than Oscar, which means, their taste is far more aligned with the steak eaters than they probably care to admit. Well, it’s either that or they have greater influence, you know, the whole “New York is smarter than Los Angeles” mentality. Either way, we will be finding out on Monday morning what they pick for Best Film. Their awards will trickle down beginning at 7am LA time. They vote and announce, vote and announce.
You can follow us, @awardsdaily or @filmystic, for all of the breaking news.
Now on to the predictions. Last year I ended up going with Hugo, changing my predictions from Tree of Life at the last minute. It didn’t matter because the NYFCC picked The Artist. They usually go for the best reviewed film of the year, though not always. Let’s take a quick look at the Metacritic scores for their recent winners going back five years:
2011: The Artist – 89
2010: The Social Network – 95
2009-The Hurt Locker-94
2008-Milk 84
2007-No Country for Old Men -91
2006-United 93 – 90
2005-Brokeback Mountain-87
The lowest score was for Milk at 84. It’s still kind of a marvel that it won but it was up against Slumdog Millionaire and hell would have to freeze over before the NYFCC was going to pick Slumdog Millionaire. Still, you have to figure, whatever they pick it probably isn’t going to be below their lowest scoring film. It’s possible, of course, that they will pick something divisive that has love it/hate it reviews. It’s also possible that they will pick something that hasn’t been widely reviewed yet, like Les Miserables, Django Unchained or The Hobbit. What? Could happen!
But of the films that has been released what have been the best reviewed, above at least 84, that are in the Oscar conversation (it’s rare that they pick something totally out of the blue – Topsy-Turvy was the last time they did that back in 1999). Sadly, the state of film criticism now, really since The Social Network, has made it so that no movie ever seems to be able to top a score 90 anymore. Used to happen with frequency.
86
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Master
84
Moonrise Kingdom
Looper
81
Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions
78
Life of Pi
76
Flight
Is it any wonder studios hold movies from critics before the awards start being handed out? 2012 has been one of the best years for films in a long while but you’d never know it by the scores you see on Metacritic (and Rotten Tomatoes is far too unreliable).
To that end, I have to wonder if it isn’t down to the highest rated films in the bunch. Since I know many of these critics I know what movies they liked and didn’t like. you could take each one of them and score the reviews they had for each movie but I think that’s overkill. I’ll just go with the overall score and leave it at that.
Predictions:
Best Film: Lincoln (alternate: Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alternate: Kathryn Bigelow)
Screenplay: Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Or Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings)
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Cinematography: The Master
Documentary: The Queen of Versailles
Foreign: Amour
How about you?
The Chart
LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture
*Also nominated for best picture
2010 | The Descendants | The Artist | The Artist |
2010 | The Social Network* | The Social Network* | The King’s Speech |
2009 | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
2008 | Wall-E | Milk* | Slumdog Millionaire |
2007 | There Will Be Blood* | No Country for Old Men+ | No Country |
2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima* | United 93 | The Departed |
2005 | Brokeback Mountain* | Brokeback Mountain* | Crash |
2004 | Sideways* | Sideways* | Million Dollar Baby |
2003 | American Splendour | Return of the King | Return of the King |
2002 | About Schmidt | Far From Heaven | Chicago |
2001 | In the Bedroom* | Mulholland Drive | A Beautiful Mind |
2000 | Crouching Tiger* | Traffic* | Gladiator |
1999 | The Insider* | Topsy-Turvy | American Beauty |
1998 | Saving Private Ryan* | Saving Private Ryan* | Shakespeare in Love |
1997 | L.A. Confidential* | L.A. Confidential* | Titanic |
1996 | Secrets & Lies* | Fargo* | The English Patient |
1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
1994 | Pulp Fiction* | Quiz Show* | Forrest Gump |
1993 | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List |
1992 | Unforgiven+ | The Player | Unforgiven |
1991 | Bugsy* | The Silence of the Lambs+ | Silence of the Lambs |
1990 | Goodfellas* | Goodfellas* | Dances With Wolves |
1989 | Do the Right Thing | My Left Foot* | Driving Miss Daisy |
1988 | Little Dorrit | The Accidental Tourist* | Rain Man |
1987 | Hope and Glory* | Broadcast News* | The Last Emperor |
1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Platoon |
1985 | Brazil | Prizzi’s Honor* | Out of Africa |
1984 | Amadeus+ | Passage to India* | Amadeus |
1983 | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment |
1982 | E.T.* | Gandhi+ | Gandhi |
1981 | Atlantic City* | Reds* | Chariots of Fire |
1980 | Raging Bull* | Ordinary People+ | Ordinary People |
1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
1978 | Coming Home* | The Deer Hunter+ | The Deer Hunter |
1977 | Star Wars* | Annie Hall+ | Annie Hall |
1976 | Network* | All the President’s Men* | Rocky |
1975 | Dog Day Afternoon* | Nashville* | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
1974 | Armacord | Godfather II | |
1973 | La Nuit Américaine | The Sting | |
1972 | Viskningar och rop | The Godfather | |
1971 | A Clockwork Orange* | The French Connection | |
1970 | Five Easy Pieces* | Patton | |
1969 | Z* | Midnight Cowboy | |
1968 | Lion in Winter* | Oliver | |
1967 | In the Heat of the Night+ | In the Heat of the Night | |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons* | A Man for all Seasons | |
1965 | Darling* | the Sound of Music | |
1964 | My Fair Lady+ | My Fair Lady | |
1963 | Tom Jones+ | Tom Jones | |
1962 | none | Lawrence of Arabia | |
1961 | West Side Story+ | West Side Story | |
1960 | The Apartment+ | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | |
1959 | Ben Hur+ | Ben Hur | |
1958 | THe Defiant Ones* | Gigi | |
1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai+ | Bridge on the River Kwai | |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days+ | Around/World in 80 Days | |
1955 | Marty+ | Delbert Mann, Marty | |
1954 | On the Waterfront+ | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | |
1953 | From Here to Eternity+ | From Here to Eternity | |
1952 | High Noon* | The Greatest Show on Earth | |
1951 | Streetcar Named Desire* | An American in Paris | |
1950 | All About Eve+ | All About Eve |
Thelma Adams, US Weekly
John Anderson, Newsday
Melissa Anderson, Time Out New York
David Ansen, Newsweek
Dwight Brown, NNPA & UPSCALE
Richard Corliss, Time
Mike D’Angelo, Esquire Magazine
David Denby, New Yorker
Karen Durbin, Elle Magazine
David Edelstein, New York Magazine
David Fear, Time Out New York
Marshall Fine, Star Magazine
Owen Gleiberman, Entertainment Weekly
J. Hoberman, Village Voice
Andre O’Hehir, Salon
Stuart Klawans, The Nation
Lou Lumenick, New York Post
Joe Morgenstern, Wall Street Journal
Vincent Musetto, New York Post
Peter Rainer, Christian Science Monitor
Rex Reed, New York Observer
Joshua Rothkopf, Time Out New York
Leah Rozen, People Magazine
Andrew Sarris, New York Observer
Richard Schickel, Time
Lisa Schwarzbaum, Entertainment Weekly
Kyle Smith, New York Post
Steve Snyder, New York Sun
Dana Stevens, Slate.com
Peter Travers, Rolling Stone
Elizabeth Weitzman, New York Daily News
Armond White, NY Press
Stephen Whitty, Newhouse Newspapers
Stephanie Zacharek, Salon.com
This has truly been an amazing year worth of movies, I gotta say. I’ve fallen in love with several of them (even had to gush to Sasha about Beasts of the Southern Wild last night because no one I know has seen it, haha!) It seems to be particularly difficult to predict winners this year because I can see it going several different ways. Hell, it’s even going to be hard to predict nominations.
Best Pic: Les Miserables
Best Actor: DDL or Omar Sy
Best Actress: Emayatzy Cornealdi or Marion Cotillard
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway or Lorraine Toussaint
Supporting Actor: David Oyelowo Or Robert DeNiro
Argo seems to be the most likely to win best picture at this point, IMO and I can totally see NYFCC going for Phoenix & Cotillard. Great performances.
Best Picture: Lincoln (alt: The Master)
Best Director: Ben Affleck (alt: P.T.A)
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (alt: Sally Field)
Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (alt: Rober DeNiro)
Best Cinematography: Les Miserables
Best Foreign: Rust and Bone
Best Screenplay: Argo
Best Picture: Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director: Ben Affleck
Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis or Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence or Marion Cotillard
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway or Helen Hunt
Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman or Rober Deniro
Best Cinematography: Les Miserables
Best Foreign: Amour or Rust and Bone
Best Screenplay: Lincoln or Argo
I can’t fathom Silver Linings Playbook winning unless, like the year The Accidental Tourist won, there’s a major schism among the voters and it slips through as a compromise choice. Have they ever voted for a musical? Can’t see Les Miz winning either. New Yorkers have had enough of Les Mis for, oh, 20 years now.
Maybe it’s my art house Tree of Life bias showing, but I still think The Master is going to win this one. Maybe it wins nothing else, but I think it’s a good fit for the NYFCC.
@rufussondheim
I totally agree with you. We have three very good movies, bu I am yet to be wowed by this season.
Nevertheless:
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Steven Spielberg
Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva or Jessica Chastain
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Best Cinematography: The Life of Pi
Best Foreign: Amour
Best Screenplay: Lincoln
My predictions:
Best Picture: Lincoln (alt. Moonrise Kingdom)
Best Director: Wes Anderson (alt. Steven Spielberg)
Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis (alt. Hugh Jackman)
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (that’s probably my wishful thinking)(alt. Jennifer Lawrence)
(this is probably the scenario: winner, Jennifer Lawrence, alt. Jessica Chastain)
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (alt. Helen Hunt)
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman)
Best Cinematography: The Life of Pi (alt. Lincoln)
Best Foreign: Amour (alt. Holy Motors)
Best Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Moonrise Kingdom)
I think one of LAFCA/NYFCC are going to pick Moonrise Kingdom as their Best Picture. The Master faction in both is going to distort things, essentially it won’t have enough support to win, but its supporters aren’t going to switch over to an Argo/Les Miz/Silver Linings Playbook. Moonrise Kingdom is inoffensive enough to the more mainstream people (I think it was Anderson’s most easily digestible film aside from Fantastic Mr. Fox) and still exciting enough to woo the cinephiles from The Master faction. I could be wrong here since I think all award prognosticators are underestimating Moonrise Kingdom (not my favorite movie of the year, but if Wes Anderson can’t get a nomination for that, what will he get one for?) but I think it could happen.
I’m going out on a limb with a few of these. Critics are, I think, harder to predict than the Oscar voters, generally speaking.
Best Film: Les Miserables
Best Director: Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Screenplay: Argo
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (alternate, Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (alternate, John Hawkes – The Sessions)
Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions (alternate, Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Cinematography: The Life of Pi
Foreign: Amour
what i don’t get is how they’re announcing so early. have they all had the chance to see “zero dark thirty” and “les miserables” yet? what about “the hobbit” and “django unchained”? no one has seen those yet, right?
regardless, my predictions:
picture: zero dark thirty (alt: argo)
director: kathryn bigelow (alt: steven spielberg)
actor: joaquin phoenix (alt: daniel day-lewis)
actress: emmanuelle riva (alt: marion cotillard)
supporting actor: philip seymour hoffman (alt: tommy lee jones)
supporting actress: anne hathaway (alt: amy adams)
screenplay: lincoln (alt: life of pi)
foreign film: amour (alt: the intouchable)
I don’t see the NYFC going for the somewhat ponderous and middlebrow Lincoln, or the TV movie-ish Silver Linings, for Best Picture. I’d predict Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Also agree with others that Pheonix seems the front runner for Actor — they will like the intense, Brando quality of his performance, and also his dissing of the Oscars.
Picture: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Director: Haneke — Amour
Actor: Phoenix — The Master
Actress: Emanuelle Riva — Amour
S. Actor: Dwight Henry — Beasts of the SW
phantom
I think Phoenix will win NY award for Best actor, they do usually for performances like his in this movie. Neither Washington or DDL have gotten the praise Phoenix has from the critics.
Can someone please remind me why the NY Times critics don’t participate? Is it something to do with Janet Maslin’s meltdown when NYFC picked The Accidental Tourist (which was a MUCH better film than Rain Man). Especially noticeable since a hack like Rex Reed is a voter! His ridiculous review of Lincoln is just the latest in his absurd history of so-called film criticism.
Going through the chart above I was struck by how often the NYFC gets it right, compared to LA and the Oscars.
Can someone please remind me why the NY Times critics don’t participate?
Probably some misguided attempt by NYTimes editorial board to require their journalist to remain above the fray.
When you think about it in simplest terms, Critics Awards are when reporters moonlight, trying to make news. Instead of doing their day-job: reporting the news.
MovieFan
It would be great if Phoenix scored at least this one important award for his phenomenal performance, but I think it will be a DDL-sweep all the way…unless critics groups go apeshit over Les Miserables, but they rarely go for ‘tentpoles’. Clearly a lot will depend on reviews and BO, but if Jackman’s film hits all the right notes, I firmly believe he will be the only real threat for Daniel Day-Lewis in the long run.
I don’t think Lawrence stands a chance in NY. I think that Amour with a score of 91 will bring the Best Actress Award to Riva and if not her then it will be Chastain.
The only real surprise might be Spader in Supporting for Lincoln. His is the kind of performance that even overshadowed a bit by Jones still is quite noticable by critics and the kind of lack of support that the critics in NY love to say they “found”. I’m really holding out for Field in the Best Supporting Actress category. Here’s the difference in my opinion between Field and Hathaway. Hathaway has the advantage because she has a song which underscores the emotion she brings to the screen. Field doesn’t have that “extra” she has to bring it without having a song to provide her with motivation.
Otherwise not a lot in those predictions to argue about.
BEST PICTURE – Life of Pi
BEST DIRECTOR – Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
BEST ACTRESS – Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
BEST ACTOR – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Helen Hunt, The Sessions
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Ewan Mcgregor (The Impossible)
BEST SCREENPLAY – The Impossible
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Life of Pi
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Amour
I can’t see anyone other than Phoenix winning Best Actor at NYFCC, they absolutely go for showy performances like his over the more subtle turns like DDL in Lincoln.
Oh, Jesus, Ringer invasion has already begun. All those mindless Jacksonites from 2001-2004 are beginning to swarm Oscar blogs and sites pimping their candidate without any regard for reality. Yeah, sure, The Hobbit is so going to suddenly steal all awards from movies that have been building buzz for so long (Lincoln, Argo, SLP) or are getting raves sight recently fresh-in-the-memory seen (ZDT, Les Miserables)…not. This is going to be loooong 3 years with those lunatics back. Looooong.
Rex Reed must have pixie-dusted the petit fours just before the wheels came off during the major categories
LMAO! Yeah, they posit themselves as credible barometers of quality and independent of the Oscar race, yet their choices so often lick Oscar’s arse clean and dry. I’ll always have a soft spot for the NYFCC after they were the only major critic group to award Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain, but other left-field selections they’ve previously made (The Kids Are All Right winning actress and screenplay for example) have been so transparent.
I have a feeling about Argo with NYFCC. But I have another feeling that Argo will follow a similar path to The Descendants’ last year, and miss out on most of the major groups’ top awards.
I thought it was established that the critic’s aren’t too fond of Spielberg, particularly NY who overlooked him for best director in both 1993 and 1998. However, I still think Lincoln could get Best Picture.
Actor: Denzel Washington, Flight
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Picture: Lincoln
No PLEASE, Jennifer lawrence NO, she is the most unbearable and overrated actress of the last years
why not Michael Haneke as best director?
Nicole Kidman, Best Supporting Actress for The Paperboy. NGNG.
i’ve always admired the NYFCC. they don’t always go for the highbrow choice. they even voted AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS (the all time snob trap for film writers nowadays) and BEN HUR for best picture. i heartily agreed with their choice of UNITED 93 over THE DEPARTED, yet am still scratching my head over the best actress selection of Cameron Diaz for “There’s Something About Mary.” I’m anxious to hear what they choose…
I have this funny feeling that Lincoln is going to win a lot of awards. Its main competition is Les Miserables. The rest of the categories are predictable. Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway are going to sweep.
BEST PICTURE
NYFCC – Lincoln
LAFCA – Argo
NBR – Life of Pi
BEST DIRECTOR
NYFCC – Steven Spielberg
LAFCA – Ben Affleck
NBR – Ben Affleck
BEST ACTOR
NYFCC – Daniel Day-Lewis
LAFCA – Daniel Day-Lewis
NBR – Hugh Jackman
BEST ACTRESS
NYFCC – Naomi Watts
LAFCA – Emmanuelle Riva
NBR – Jennifer Lawrence
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NYFCC – Tommy Lee Jones
LAFCA – Tommy Lee Jones
NBR – Ewan McGregor
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NYFCC – Sally Field
LAFCA – Anne Hathaway
NBR – Anne Hathaway
BEST SCREENPLAY
NYFCC – Lincoln
LAFCA – Argo
NBR – Lincoln
I think Lincoln is going to end up winning best picture because it’s an all American film that screams American patiotism. However, I think Ben Affleck will end up taking the best director award and best actor and actress are a given. Daniel Day Lewis and Jennifer Lawrence are taking home those awards. I get that Zero Dark Thirty got a lot of praise but where’s the BUZZ? I don’t see it winning any major awards.
I have a hunch Zero Dark Thirty is right up their alley.
Best Film- Argo
Best Director- Ben Affleck
Best Screenplay-Lincoln
Best Adapted Screenplay- Les Miserables
Best Actor- Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway
Best Cinematography- Life of Pi
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
I’m predicting ‘Argo’ scores big here and regain some thunder from ‘Lincoln’ and ‘Les Miserables’. The NYFCC is usually not a fan well polish films, so I’m guessing ‘Lincoln’ would fare better at NBR (where I’m expecting it to win) and don’t think ‘Les Miserables’ has been screened enough to gain much traction here.
Then again, a complete curve ball for ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’ is just dark enough for these guys.
Best Picture: Les Miserables
Best Director: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables (his first NYFCC award)
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor: Bryan Cranston, Argo (NGNG)
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Screenplay: Lincoln
Best Foreign Film: Pieta (from Korea)
Best Documentary: West of Memphis
I’m predicting Les Miz to win coz Thelma Adams already declared that it won’t.
I’m oppositional-defiant!
Best picture- Les Miserables
Best director- Ben Affleck
Best actor- Daniel Day Lewis
Best actress- Jennifer Lawrence
Best supporting actress- Anne Hathaway
Best supporting actor- Alan Arkin
Wow. If these are the critics voting then Jennifer Lawrence is totally winning for best actress since Peter Travers from Rolling Stone, Time, New York Magazine, Entertainment Weekly, Elle, and other top critics have been campaigning hard for her to win an Oscar.
love the charts!
I’m gonna predict that if they see the hobbit and love it in its pre screenings, they might just pick it cause it’s fresh in their heads.
THE HOBBIT!
Reading the few reviews on Rotten Tomatoes for Zero Dark Thirty makes it sound like the critic’s pick for Best Pic.
Is Mary Elizabeth Winstead out of the running? I thought she was great in Smashed.
Early word on The Hobbit is reallyyy good! Im so pumped for it, Martin Freeman even said its better than LOTR!
For best picture nyc I predict Les Miserables.
NGNG: The Dark Knight Rises or The Hobbit
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln
You know, I think they’re going to go with Amour or The Master. They’ll honor an auteur, but probably not Spielberg.
I live in Aus, so I’m probably way off.
The main awards will probably go to the top players, but wouldn’t it be great to see an underestimated risktaker to emerge like Life of Pi The Master, Cloud Atlas, Anna Karenina, Amour, The Dark Knight Rises, The Impossible, Django Unchained ?
This is the critics’ groups – phase so I am expecting them to A. spread the love B. consider brilliant achievements the mainstream might overlook.
BEST PICTURE – Les Miserables
BEST DIRECTOR – Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
BEST ACTRESS – Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
BEST ACTOR – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
BEST SCREENPLAY – Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Amour
What should be emphasized that they often go with the ‘veteran’ in the Best Actress category, so it could be someone semi-unexpected from the Riva/Mirren/Smith trio AND they seem to prefer original screenplays (they awarded ‘The Kids Are All Right’ in ‘The Social Network’-year, if my memory serves me well this was the ONLY award Sorkin didn’t win.)
P.S. Wishful thinking : Keira Knightley surprises in Best Actress. I can see how the film and the performance can be insanely divisive, textbook love/hate experience, but I firmly believe nailing one of the most iconic, complex and difficult female roles ever written, should garner awards for the actress who was brave enough to take it on and devoted enough to pull it off (clearly the second part is up for debate). I love Chastain, but I’m sure she will be in the top5 without a second consecutive NYFCC award, Knightley on the other hand needs strong precursors to stay in the conversation. I think she paid her dues for a second nomination, she had delivered several critically acclaimed performances since Pride & Prejudice, in my opinion she was magnetic in ‘Atonement’, a powerhouse in ‘The Duchess’ devastatingly heartbreaking in ‘Never let me go’ and remarkably devoted (yet misunderstood by many ignorant laics) in ‘A Dangerous Method’. Hopefully The New York Times rave review will count for something here.
“So foreign language films do have a chance to win BP in NY, its just that they never get enough votes.”
You’re probably right, red_wine. Depends on how they choose to apply it, I guess. I always thought it an odd coincidence that it was reinstated after a strong run of FLF.
Best Film: Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Screenplay: Lincoln
Actress: Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Supporting Actress:Amy Adams, The Master
Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Cinematography: The Master
Foreign: Amour
@steve50
They just re-instated the category in 1978, they had it before but had briefly removed it.
And having such a category does not indicate a reluctance to award foreign films in the top category, infact it indicates a concern that foreign language films are not winning often enough and we need to have a separate category to recognize them.
Look at NSFC. They have rewarded so many foreign films in BP inspite of having a BFLF. And I checked, Talk To Her, Crouching Tiger have been runner-ups in BP at the NY in the new century.
So foreign language films do have a chance to win BP in NY, its just that they never get enough votes.
Correction: It wasn’t that frequent after all, but from 1970 to 75, 4 of the 6 BPs were foreign lang (Day For Night, Cries and Whispers, Z, Amarcord – not in that order). ’78 – new category (actually brought it back from a lot earllier).
Maybe all those subtitled masterworks freaked somebody out – who knows.
Jim >> “The only movie I saw this year that felt like it was GREAT was The Master, and that one was bound to have dissenters.”
My sentiments also, regarding films which have a shot at a BP nod. I also thought Holy Motors was great, but it won’t be showing up on the Gold Derby anytime soon.
@red_wine
Since 1978, they’ve had a sep. category for FLF. Since that time, no FLF has taken BP with the NYFCC, whereas it was frequent before that (which is probably why they split it – gotta try an’ impact Oscar, get some cred with the great unwashed, etc, y’know). I don’t know that there is a rule against it, but it’s an easy out. Like someone said earlier Melancholia was 2nd last year (?) – I haven’t checked.
Jim, I’m starting to agree with you the more I see the Big Guns that everyone is raving about. Three are very good to almost great (Pi, Argo, Lincoln) but I can’t say they are truly great even as a first impression (I can only say that about Perks at this point.) The Master was acceptable (with a high chance I will enjoy it more when I see it again. And Silver Linings is irredeemable. I’ve yet to see the Big 2 from the summer (Moonrise and Beasts) and any of the unreleased ones.
In other words, I’m still waiting for the film that will be in contention for the Oscar that I can get behind without reservation. Zero Dark Thirty is my best hope, but, frankly, there are at least 7 major films I’m excited to see that could conceivably enter the Best Pic race, so I’m not done yet.
As for metacritic not handing out high scores, I think the most likely culprit isn’t the movies themselves but the way metacritic scores them. Maybe they’ve recalibrated their system so that scores wouldn’t be so high.
“steve50 / November 28, 2012
Amour’s metacritic rating is 91 at the moment, so I’m guessing Riva – not Lawrence – for best actress because it would be the only bone they can throw at it. If they hadn’t split film and foreign language film several years ago, it would be Amour’s to lose; as it sits now – Lincoln.”
What is this about? Have they made the rules so that a foreign language film cannot win Best Picture at NY anymore?
We know that they’ve seen Django and Hobbit? Really?
Wish I had waited a day or two before sending it in. I am hoping SLP and ZD30 show strong but I predicted Argo and Lincoln to take BP and BD. But I like that the critics have a chance to get more hype for SLP. This with Spirit Awards and maybe a theater expansion bringing in more box office, and the buzz will be able to compete with Lincoln and Les Mis.
Well, Andrew Sarris is dead, so he certainly won’t be voting.
I’m interested, Sasha, why you think less films can get above a 90 now. Is it a culture of backlash in film criticism? Is it possible that the movies that have come out in the past two years simply aren’t as good? For me, there have been some real revelations this year, but it seems like a pretty weak slate. I look at those 86’s and think that I loved Argo, but it felt very, very good but not exceptional (the stuff with the main character’s son was a bit ham-handed). Beasts of the Southern Wild was a stunning debut, but the last 20 minutes didn’t hold together as tightly as I hoped. Lincoln is an incredibly strong, but not particularly revelatory movie and, frankly, it felt a touch self-congratulatory and occasionally anachronistic. I’m not saying ANY of these are less than wonderful, but are any of them truly great? The only movie I saw this year that felt like it was GREAT was The Master, and that one was bound to have dissenters.
I mean this in a sincere way: I wonder if it might have less to do with the state of film criticism as you say than it might just have to do with the films themselves.
Lord knows I’m hoping for some more truly great this year. I can’t wait for Django, Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, and Les Mis.
Best Film: Lincoln (alternate: Argo)
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alternate: Ben Affleck)
Screenplay: Lincoln
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Cinematography: The Master
Foreign: Amour
Do you think Les Mis will factor in at all? They can’t review it yet, right? So there isn’t really any way to know how much they liked it.
Also, Sasha, for your prediction — did you look at what all these critics rated Lincoln vs. the other big contenders or is it just an educated guess/hope?
How can New York turn down the temption to vote for the hunt to kill Bin Laden? So I will say Zero Dark Thirty.
“I am predicting Beasts of the Southern Wild simply because it has the most 100′s on Metacritic. By far. You think that should count for something.”
I wondered the same thing, Rufus. Their past behavior, though, seems to be to award a film like Beasts as Best First Feature so they can award a splashier/”main attraction”-y movie as Best Film. Got to get some of those stars to show up at the awards gala, after all!
Would love it, though, if their admiration of Beasts propelled Wallis to win the Best Actress prize. I highly doubt that will happen, but it would be funny.
There are several of them who loved Silver Linings, like Joe Morgenstern, for instance. Even though it has a low MC score I could see it doing well there.
I entered the contest, it was tough to pick winners for all 3 awards especially with my Argo and Lincoln tie…ugh why did they both have to be so great…I just can’t decide between them.
I am predicting Beasts of the Southern Wild simply because it has the most 100’s on Metacritic. By far. You think that should count for something.
Marion Cotillard for “Rust and Bone” could score here. Or maybe Jessica Chastain(NY actress on Bway now, albeit in a bomb)but they are NOT awarding Jennifer Lawrence here.
Women aren’t cra-zee about J-Law’s character. And alllll these ladies are feminists and there are a lot of them.
After the exstatic reaction to “Les Mis” here on Thursday…don’t be surprised if it sweeps.
I’m going to guess either Lincoln or Argo takes Best Picture, mostly because I don’t know what else to guess. Beasts will probably win First Feature, and The Master is likely too weird to arrive at a consensus. Hard to say how ZD30 will play into all of this. I doubt Les Mis, Django or any of the other late releases are going to have enough of an impact on the NY crits.
Not sure what to say with director. Spielberg has never won a NYFC Best Director prize, even in the years when his film (Schindler’s, SPR) won Best Film. Will this year break the pattern?
DDL is the most likely Best Actor winner, followed by Phoenix. I’d be surprised if anyone other than one of those two won.
OT: First clip of Zero Dark Thirty: http://www.premiososcar.net/2012/11/primer-clip-de-zero-dark-thirty.html
Actually, Tiffany plays an active role in getting Pat to fall in love with her. She actually took the reigns. Pat thought he was all action, but Tiffany was steering the boat. And the dance competition was her thing. She’s not supporting at all. Jacki Weaver is a supporting actress in Silver Linings Playbook.
Amour’s metacritic rating is 91 at the moment, so I’m guessing Riva – not Lawrence – for best actress because it would be the only bone they can throw at it. If they hadn’t split film and foreign language film several years ago, it would be Amour’s to lose; as it sits now – Lincoln.
BUT – they were so downright mainstream last year (Rex Reed must have pixie-dusted the petit fours just before the wheels came off during the major categories), nothing would surprise me.
Thanks for posting the list, Sasha. I didn’t know there were so many people in the voting process (and didn’t know folks like Travers, for instance, were part of the group).
They’ve added 2 more critics to that list, I think. I know for sure that Keith Uhlich has joined.
Thanks, Sasha. Love when you do these analyses of past results.
*should’ve put this in the above post
The rest of your predictions are excellent choices.
I would fall over dead if Jennifer Lawrence manages to win Best Actress from a (perceived to be) prestigious group as the NYFCC. Granted, she fleshes out Tiffany beyond the constraints placed upon her by the film’s script, creating a woman who turns to empty sex as a distraction from her desire for a richer romantic relationship. But she’s ultimately a supporting character, as her character has no real bearing on the plot of Silver Linings Playbook and only exists to serve Bradley Cooper’s character.
However, I would love if the NYFCC awarded Lawrence with a Supporting Actress citation instead.