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Best Picture, Best Director, How Often do they Repeat?

The new Gurus of Gold just went up. Lincoln still tops, with Spielberg for director. Just behind Spielberg, though, is Ben Affleck, followed by Tom Hooper, David O. Russell and Kathryn Bigelow. Only Affleck and Russell haven’t won before. Les Miserables is at the number 2 spot. This is the opposite of Gold Derby currently, which has Les Miz to sweep.

The question keeps coming up as to whether it’s too soon to give Tom Hooper or Kathryn Bigelow a second win.  Does the Academy reward directors with a second Oscar so soon after their first one?

This year, the potential repeat winners in director + picture would be Tom Hooper, Kathryn Bigelow, and Robert Zemeckis.  For Ang Lee it would be statue #2, and his first Best Picture win if Life of Pi were to win.  Steven Spielberg would be winning statue #3, but only his second win with Best Picture.   John Ford won 4 directing Oscars but only one of those efforts, How Green Was My Valley, won Best Picture. Frank Capra won three directing Oscars, but only two of those films won Best Picture. Only William Wyler has won three Oscars along with three Best Picture wins. If Spielberg wins a third directing Oscar, he will be only the third director in Academy history to win three.

But before we get to Spielberg’s chances, let’s look at those directors who won Best Director along with Best Picture and then came back and did it again, as Hooper and Bigelow might do:

Clint Eastwood
Unforgiven – 1992
Million Dollar Baby – 2004
=12 year span

Milos Foreman
One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest – 1975
Amadeus – 1984
=9 year span

Elia Kazan
Gentleman’s Agreement – 1947
On the Waterfront – 1954
=7 year span

David Lean
Bridge on the River Kwai 1957
Lawrence of Arabia – 1962
=5 year span

Bill Wilder
The Lost Weekend-1945
The Apartment-1960
=15 year span

Robert Wise
West Side Story – 1961
The Sound of Music  -1965
=4 year span

Fred Zinnemann
From Here to Eternity – 1953
A Man for All Seasons – 1956
=3 year span

The most recent winner to win again was Eastwood, who had a 12 year gap between films. Between Hooper and Bigelow I give Bigelow the edge because, in addition to having a slightly longer gap between films, she would also make Academy history being the only woman to do this twice.

I also have no context for determining Les Miserables’ place in the race yet since the reviews are still under embargo and will remain so until December 10.  Pundits predicting it to sweep before seeing any reviews makes me extremely nervous.  The reactions have been mixed, and I predict it to be received in a love it/hate it fashion, which can’t lead to a win with a consensus vote the way the Academy rewards winners. You have to have broad support among all types of people, not just those who respond to a musical.

Clint Eastwood did not just make two movies that voters liked. He himself was not merely liked but was beloved within the industry. His vet status by the time Million Dollar Baby came along was confirmed.  Moreover, Eastwood was celebrated then for having a success relatively late in life and Oscar loves a comeback. Well, as Louis CK says, you can’t come back if you never went away, so the odds for either Hooper or Bigelow winning are not impossible, they are just longer odds.

In all of the instances above, these directors who won double were veterans, director workhorses, in some cases, but men who had directed many many successful films. They just didn’t represent the kind of newbie success we see this year.  Back then, though, the studio system kept these directors in play. Now, the field is much more wide open since basically anyone can make a film now.

If Les Miserables wins double for Tom Hooper it will be because voters liked his movie best. If Bigelow wins double it will be partly because they liked the movie but more because they like the director, and the director is enjoying success relatively later in life. But no one in the race, or in the whole town, can really top Steven Spielberg in terms of veteran heft, and being the comeback kid.  The only one currently in the race who can touch him is Ang Lee, possibly Robert Zemeckis for Flight.

How many directors have won second Oscars for directing after they won big with Best Picture?

Oliver Stone
Platoon – 1986
Born on the Fourth of July – 1989

Steven Spielberg
Schindler’s List – 1993
Saving Private Ryan – 1998

And the opposite:

Leo McCary
The Awful Truth – 1937
Going My Way – 1944

I may have a few stats wrong and if I know you readers you will correct me!  I got my information here.  

 

79 Comments on this Post

  1. The Great Dane

    It still amazes me that Ford won 4 Best Director Oscars and only ONE of them won Best Picture.

    Can’t wait to see what happens with this Oscar season. The critics will go in all directions this year, I think. Even if Les Misérables is overlooked by the critics, it’s still the type of acceptable popcorn “sweeping weeper” that the Globes and Oscar could go for, so we’ll never know. If the critics decide to back Beasts, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Middle of Nowhere, Amour and titles like that we’ll have an even MORE interesting race. Cause we know Lincoln, Argo, Les Misérables and Silver Linings will factor at the Oscars – but which of the smaller critics films will then get in?
    But again, about Silver Linings: Now that it seems to be kind of ‘failing’ at the box office, how sure of a safe bet IS it? People were like “it’ll get in to ALL the major categories cause it’s a great crowd pleaser that’ll be hugely successful”. But now that it actually ISN’T that successful, is there room for it then? And if so, how much room is there? If Jennifer Lawrence was to win for a film and performance like this, it would only happen if the film was a box office winner. But it just isn’t.

  2. So Sasha, I wonder why do you think that KB will make it but Tom Hooper wont! Because he won sooner than she did or he won over David Fincher? or just because he is not American???

  3. dinasztie

    A Man for All Seasons won in 1966 so there was a 13-year gap. :)

    I so want Spielberg to win. :/ But I’d much more rather see Hooper win a second than Affleck. Is Argo mediocre! Боже мой!

  4. Sasha Stone

    It obviously has nothing to do with him being not American. I think that this year, since the DGA will not dictate how Academy members vote, for director you literally have 400 directors in the directing branch who will decide. For some reason, I don’t think they will go for Les Mis as much as Ang Lee’s Life of Pi. The other four are locks. That’s just my opinion, of course.

  5. Sasha — great analysis, as always, but Fred Zinnemann won again for Man For All Seasons in 1966, not ’56, making it a 13 year difference.
    He didn’t deserve that second one, not over Mike Nichols’
    extraordinary film debut with Virginia Woolf.

  6. Christophe

    Sasha must really hate seeing Europeans winning Best Picture or Best Director. In 2010, it was the Brits, last year the French, and now the Brits with a movie about the French! “What a shame! when there are so many great Real American movies!” sorry but you’re not fooling anyone Sasha…

  7. coldplums

    Even though Ang Lee won both DGA and Oscars BD that year, there’s always been a sense of ‘he wuz robbed’ because Brokeback didn’t win BP that year. So my bet would be that he would be included in the five nominees, but be a very long shot for winning. To use your comeback story formula, I would think Ben Affleck and Spielberg both figure into that narrative. Bigelow (as much as I love her work) has already had her ‘vindication’ moment–esp. over her overbearing ex!–so this time around she won’t have that extra narrative boost for her win.

  8. SeattleMoviegoer

    just to note…he didn’t repeat with Best Picture wins, but Joseph L. Mankiewicz won the only set of Back to Back Directing Oscars in 1950 and 1951. he also won back to back screenplay Oscars for the films–A Letter to 3 Wives and All About Eve. Quite a feat.

  9. Pond still keeping ZDT at number one — interesting. Do we know if he has seen it yet? Also no Hammond voting — what film did he have at 1 the last time?

  10. I am torn between adding Django Unchained and Flight.

    I saw the red band trailer for DJANGO UNCHAINED before KILLING THEM SOFTLY yesterday. It was basically blood everywhere. KILL BILL style blood. A lot of people don’t like that so I don’t know about QTs chances now.

  11. The race is between Spielberg and Affleck. Full stop.

  12. The Gurus list has been updated now with Hammond’s picks.

  13. “DGA will not dictate how Academy members vote, for director you literally have 400 directors in the directing branch who will decide.”

    This will be a great new wrinkle to follow. Review the Director’s Roundtable from a few days ago and watch the faces of the others when Ang Lee speaks – then watch the same faces as Tom Hooper speaks. There’s a discernable difference in reactions. Sorry, but it’s true and very noticeable, and obviously has nothing to do with being “American”.

    Agree that the “comeback” scenario works for both Spielberg and Affleck, with Ben having the advantage.

  14. I noticed exactly the same thing, steve50. The silence when Ang Lee speaks compared with the silence when Tom Hooper speaks feels so different. Lee inspires reverence, while I think the other directors either don’t even recognise Hooper or don’t respect him.

    I’m gonna need major proof to believe in Hooper getting a Best Director nomination. This year, it feels like there’s more heat behind too many other contenders. I’d even say Michael Haneke, Paul Thomas Anderson and Wes Anderson have equally good shots at stealing a slot in Director as Hooper.

  15. Bob Burns

    they will love having a good reason to vote for Spielberg

  16. Jack Traven II

    Spielberg (Hello, it’s Spielberg. No further explanation necessary, right?)

    Affleck (Would really deserve a nomination. One film better than the previous one.)

    Hooper (TKS was, well, nice. But not as much of an impressive feelgood film as Slumdog Millionaire, IMO. But the Academy will probably not overlook him for Les Mis.)

    Lee (Just like Spielberg. No further explanation needed.)

    Zeitlin (He might have made THE zeitgeisty film that could make him sneak in)

  17. Well how ’bout this… what if the field is so full that BP and BD barely even match? Like Affleck gets a nod for director but ARGO misses a BP spot. LES MIS misses BD but gets BP. Anderson gets BD nod but MK doesn’t make it. LIFE OF PI and maybe LINCOLN get both but neither win.

    OMG it could be anarchy! But wicked fun.

  18. Too many good films this year. BP and BD will be split to spread the wealth. I don’t see Hooper winning again since most critique of Les Mis has been the direction. It seems an actor’s film. Whereas I can see Bigelow winning again. ZD30 reviews make it out to be a director’s piece. The subject matter will help create a good narrative for her.

  19. DDL complete sweep 14 N1.

  20. Bball_Jake

    I think the Academy will either go two ways this year in the BP race. They could be the same as they were last year and nominate:
    Lincoln
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Anna Karenina
    Amour

    Or they could be great and nominate:
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    The Dark Knight Rises
    The Hobbit
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Life of Pi
    The Master
    -Silver Linings Playbook

  21. Really insightful article. I think it is real interesting that directors that won twice that you listed had pretty much ‘no doubt’ films. Amadeaus, On the waterfront, Lawrence of Arabia, etc. That almost makes a stronger case for Lincoln since I think looking back on a reflection of this year, Lincoln has most gravitas then rest of field. Or they could just decide to not award BD to a director that has already won.

  22. The Great Dane

    Sasha, I don’t agree with you (for once, hehe) about Hooper. The thought of “they will vote for Ang Lee’s Pi before Hooper as i directorial acchievement” makes little sense to me just by the very fact that they thought that “The King’s Speech” was the best directiorial acchievement of 2010, ahead of some of the best directors in the world making some of their best films that year. If they think that highly of Hooper’s acchievement for that film, surely “Les Misérables” could at least get nominated, just by how amazing so many (many, not all) seem to think after the screenings so far.

  23. Jack Traven II

    @ Antoinette

    You’ve got some pretty interesting ideas. But I do really hope Argo will get nominated for BP AND BD. If not, then I would rephrase one of its lines: Academy, fuck yourself!

  24. Tom Hooper may not have been the directors branch’s pick for 2010. By the time voting for the awards had come around, The King’s Speech had assumed the position of frontrunner, which was not the case as Academy members were voting for the nominations. Plus, the entire Academy decided to award Tom Hooper, which I doubt would have happened had it been the choice of the directors branch alone.

  25. Sasha Stone

    @The Great Dane, Ang Lee is a living legend who’s won the DGA twice and the Oscar once. Moreover, he has been making films a lot longer than Tom Hooper, who is considered a newbie. Yes, he’s won previously, but more recently than Ang Lee, whose Brokeback Mountain got the major shaft for Best Picture and everyone knows it. Add to that, Life of Pi is going to be far more universally loved than Les Miz (yes, despite what New York and some Oscar pundits are saying). Actors will be Les Miz’ primary support, which means it will draw strength on its actors and less on its director…but again, let’s wait to see what the reviews say…Box office already tells us that the universally loved films in the race thus far are Lincoln, Argo and Life of Pi. Also Moonrise Kingdom did surprisingly well.

  26. Man, there are some serious Haters on Tom Hooper because of his DESERVED win for TKS. People need to get over it.

    Bigelow won’t win, because of the reason you justified her chances of winning Sasha. When the academy has a chance to make history they rarely do it. Hate to say this but she won’t win again because she is a female. Sorta like black woman in leading acting categories…..they’ve rewarded one each, but struggle to reward another…it’s terribly sad, but that’s how I see it.

  27. Christophe

    @Paddy Mulholland
    They still liked him enough to give him a nomination, at a time when as you say TKS wasn’t the frontrunner, whereas this year some people argue he could get shut out of the race altogether.

  28. People love Ang Lee, it’s been almost seven years since his win, and he has a history with getting recognized for mastering varying genres, and, as Sasha mentioned, the whole Brokeback/Crash debacle gives Lee an air of “Under-recognition.”

    Hooper, while The King’s Speech was lost on many on this site (including myself), it was beloved by others (ala Shakespeare in Love) or else how do you explain its high MC, RT, and IMDb scores (taken as a whole, not individually)? However, the win still seemed forced (especially considering how close Best Director must have been). And, I was surprised recently listening to all the chatter on Hollywood Elsewhere as to Hooper’s personality and the opinions he elicits in others. Perhaps just gossip. Still.

    Lee is totally getting a nod BEFORE Hooper, if they don’t both get in.

    Ang Lee once again put something on the screen that we’ve never seen before.

  29. I think he’ll get shut out altogether.

    Ask me in a month? I might have changed my mind…

  30. Trevarius Jackson

    What a list of movies! I never thought I’d see a year as good as 2007 again, much less so soon. Whoever ends up winning, we should count ourselves fortunate that the contenders are all of high quality for once.

  31. Ang Lee has been under-recognised by the Academy since Sense & Sensibility.

    Sense & Sensibility: Golden Globe, NBR, BAFTA, Berlin Golden Bear, Critics Choice, Boston Society of Film Critics Best Picture winner. NYFCC, NBR, Boston Best Director winner, Golden Globe, BAFTA Best Director nominee, LAFCA Best Director 2nd place. No Best Director Oscar nomination

    Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: DGA, Golden Globe, Independent Spirit, BAFTA, Chlotrudis Best Director winner, NYFCC Best Director 2nd place, NSFC Best Director 3rd place, LAFCA Best Picture winner, NYFCC Best Picture 2nd place, TIFF People’s Choice winner. Neither Best Picture nor Best Director Oscar winner

    Brokeback Mountain: PGA, Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice, NYFCC, LAFCA, NBR, Venice Golden Lion, Independent Spirit, Southeastern Film Critics Association, San Francisco Film Critics Circle, Boston Society of Film Critics, London Critics Circle Best Picture winner, Oscar, DGA, Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice, NYFCC, LAFCA, NBR, Independent Spirit, Southeastern Film Critics Association, San Francisco Film Critics Circle, Boston Society of Film Critics, London Critics Circle, Chlotrudis Best Director winner. No Best Picture Oscar

    He’s had a tough ride all the fucking way.

  32. Sasha I’m looking forward to your review of Les Miz. So now I’ve got to wait nine more days? It’s not the kind of movie I’d normally rush to see but I thought if you loved it that it might be more than just a mess of Broadway songs. Judging from your pre-review comments it sounds like it didn’t totally razzle dazzle.

  33. Christophe

    @Scott
    Don’t you worry… I’m starting to think Sasha has a secret fetish for Tom Hooper’s movies, so she uses reverse psychology to make Academy members vote for him.

  34. Ang Lee is the most versatile director alive. From Sense and Sensibility to Life of Pi. From traditional period Brit film to overwhelming use of technology in benefit of a story. I guess he misses the Oacar nomination and I’m confident fith spot (Spielberg, Hooper, Bigelow and Affleck are locks) goes to one of the The Weinstein Company’s. Not sure if David O Russell.

  35. Jerry Grant

    The agony is, out of the six following directors, one will get the shaft:

    Ben Affleck, Ang Lee, Steven Spielberg, David O. Russell, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper

    I honestly have no way of determining. I think Spielberg and Bigelow are the safest for nominations. But it is hard to imagine Affleck, Lee, Russell, or Hooper not getting in. People really want Affleck, Lee, and Russell to be nominated, I feel. I would be very sad if any of them didn’t get a nod. But I’m sure Hooper is hugely deserving for “Les Miz”, and I can see how some would feel his huge achievement to be more deserving than either Affleck or Russell, and I think Sasha is slightly underrating his film’s chances. Then again, maybe Lee’s film will be seen as too slight or not serious enough, and will be ignored, which would be sad indeed. Who knows.

    In any case, I feel very solid about this Best Picture Six:

    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Damn fine movie year.

  36. You know what we’ve got to do? We’ve got to look at who would actually walk away with a statuette if the films win BP. For example, Clooney is a producer on ARGO right? Would he get an award if it won or is he one of those other producers? And if he was one of the ones who would get a statuette would that work for or against the film in a crowded year when they may want to recognize newbies over the heavily awarded.

    What about the other movies? Who produced what? I think this is vital.

  37. Clooney isn’t heavily awarded by the Academy despite great contributions like Good Night and Good Luck, The Descendants and Up in the Air. He has a Best Supporting Actor statue and that’s it. That’s an award for the least of his many contributions to Hollywood. He has lost 6 Oscars for combined for acting, writing and directing. But it is good question as to who is eligible on Argo: Affleck, Clooney and Heslov carry the “Producer” designation on IMDB but that’s not always “Academy accurate”.

  38. Goodvibe61

    Sasha: Are you at the Django screening at the DGA? Or did you not get the invite for that?

  39. I seriously misremembered that Clooney had won two. What the hell was I thinking of? Did he win something twice?

  40. danemychal

    If you want to talk about a producer who is overdue to win an Oscar, let’s talk Kathleen Kennedy. She has lost 7 Best Picture Oscars and has never won one (she was only an Exec Producer on Schindler’s List).

    One of the most prolific female producers of all-time — and the woman just entrusted with the Star Wars franchise by George Lucas himself — could use some Oscar love. Sure, not all of the her nominated films were amazing (War Horse was terribly overrated by the Academy), but with contributions like E.T., Munich, Seabiscuit and The Sixth Sense, I definitely wouldn’t be upset to see Lincoln finally get the job done for her Oscar-wise. She’s had a wonderful, “Oscar-worthy” career.

  41. unlikely hood

    Behind these statistics is a fact that I also consider important: David Lean is the only person to have won BD/BP for his own consecutive movies. In other words, yes he took his time, but he won BD/BP twice in a row (his own row).

    THAT is the august company that Hooper and Bigelow are threatening to join if either were to accomplish a BD/BP double play.

    David Lean and that’s it.

    This is like a baseball player threatening to co-own a record with Willie Mays.

    Three years ago on this forum, before Avatar had actually come out, and Ryan Adams was a lot more rah-rah-blue-aliens, I mentioned this. I said ok, so you’re saying James Cameron is going to be in a club with just David Lean and him. And Ryan in response (keep responding Ryan, we love it!) was, to put it succinctly, sure-why-not-it’s-not-that-big-a-deal.

    But I did and do think it’s a big deal. As we’ve said many times, Oscars aren’t Golden Globes where, say, Jim Carrey can win 3 and no one gives a crap. Oscars are carefully parsed out by the voters. They resisted giving Meryl #3 for almost 30 years mostly because – well, that’s a lot for any person.

    So yeah, I’ll bet a sizable wad of cash right now that neither Hooper nor Bigelow will win BD *while* their picture also wins BP. Les Mis freaks, please step up to this comment thread and I will email you privately and we can Dream a Paypal Dream.

  42. unlikely hood

    Jerry Grant: great point. I always think about that. At this point I feel certain that on nomination day, one of those six directors will be headlined as a major “snub.” We will know, of course, that they had only five roses for six great bachelorettes.

    (Anyone predicting Zeitlin or Jackson or anyone else sneaking in is a crazy dreamer. But hey, so was Fantine.)

    If I had to guess now, I think Ang Lee will be the snubbed. This in no way reflects on my sincere love for Life of Pi…it’s just a wild guess.

  43. Yeah, if you are putting Hooper’s two films in the same company as Lean’s Larry of Arabia and River Kwai, that is sacred ground which Hooper has not earned the right to tread.

  44. Referring to the film as “Larry” of Arabia undermines the sacred argument.

  45. Good point about Kathleen Kennedy, @danem. Could be the tipping point in a close race.

  46. What are Hooper’s “issues” that the other posters are referring to?

    Honestly think the David Lean comparisons knock Hooper and Bigelow out of the running

  47. Sasha Stone

    Sasha: Are you at the Django screening at the DGA? Or did you not get the invite for that?

    Did not get an invite. Only a select few did. Don’t really care. Fuck ‘em.

  48. Sasha Stone

    @Scott, I just watched Les Miz a second time and I liked it a LOT better. I will do a write-up soon, probably not a review but a “case for”

  49. Finally saw Lincoln and found it impressive on various levels but ultimately underwhelming and a bit overrated. I am honestly surprised by how passionately some pundits are hyping it, and it’s unfortunate that their fickleness has helped relegate Joaquin Phoenix to the dugout. If he doesn’t get nominated, it will be proof positive that blogger/pundits have negatively transformed the nature of the Oscars.

  50. Daveylow

    If anyone gets the shaft this year it should be Russell. I can’t believe his so-so rom-com is considered Best Picture material.

  51. Vince, I don’t. I think it’s awesome.

  52. Daveylow

    I’m not a big Hooper fan but I wish people would stop ignoring his fine work on The Damned United and his TV mini-series Elizabeth I and John Adams. But Ang Lee’s work on Life of Pi is so special I would be angry if the Academy ignored him this year.

  53. Keil – If he gets snubbed, I have no idea how it will be the fault of the pundits (who have no voting authority). It might instead have something to do with his widely publicized statement that he hates the fucking Oscars. Even if you were underwhelmed by Lincoln overall, you can’t lay any blame on DDL. He was magnificent. It was never a case of nominating Phoenix OR DDL in the BA race. It’s a case of DDL vs 4 other guys. It’s more likely Jackman or Washington or Cooper who would be to “blame” for edging out Phoenix. But again, no one would be more to blame than Phoenix himself.

  54. Terometer

    Django twitter reviews arrive! So, best picture: Les Mis; best director: Tarentino?

  55. @The Great Dane-Weinstein hasn’t put SLP in more than 400 theaters yet. It’s per theater average is very good and word of mouth is very good. Just can never tell if this platform strategy ever works. Does Weinstein even know how to get a hit at the box office?

    As far as Lawrence, if she has the best performance she deserves to win. At the end of the day it’s just acting. This whole “Oscar-formula” idea needs to be put to rest, especially if Hollywood wants these awards to remain relevant. Giving the award not to the best performance but to the best performance in the film that best fits into the stereotypical notion of an “Oscar-type” movie cheapens it completely. But Hollywood can never seem to get out of its own way.

  56. Pierre de Plume

    Comment

  57. Pierre de Plume

    Let’s face it, the handwriting is on the wall: Spielberg will win director and Lincoln will win picture. This year they go together. There’s no reason for a split. His film has an extensive backstory and its director is integral to it. I also agree with Sasha that Bigelow’s chances of a nomination are better than Hooper’s (but Ang Lee’s odds are better than both of them).

  58. I predict Affleck will win best director – it’s the one way to honor the film completely with one single award since it’s a (kind of) vanity project for its director/star. Spielberg has won enough awards to last ten lifetimes. Hooper already won and recently. Bigelow already won and recently. Lee has done better. O’Russell’s movie isn’t cinematic enough – plus he’s still in mean eccentric guy prison, right? I think the closest competition is P.T. Anderson, because that award would similarly be one way to honor the whole movie – but the likeability factor isn’t there for the movie the way it is for Argo.

  59. Spielberg
    Hooper
    Zeitlin
    Affleck
    Lee

    Bigelow will get the shaft!

  60. Just read the tweets on Django and they are consistent with the initial screenings a few weeks back. What I gather from all this is that Waltz is probably in the mix now for Lead Actor and ditto for Jackson and possibly DiCapro. Cinematography, Editing and Sound will all be shoo ins…and the man himself? He has an uncanny way of simplifying things which can make more serious fare look stupid in comparison. From all accounts it is a crowd pleaser, and I read a lot into that given the subject matter and the extreme violence in the film.

  61. mileshigh

    This is depressing to realize Paul Thomas Anderson isn’t considered for Best Director! Ang Lee is slightly overrated and Life of Pi was VERY underwhelming!

  62. Al Robinson

    I think for “Best Picture”:

    Likely:
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    *Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    More (less likely):
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom

    Wishful thinking (but probably not for either BP or Director):
    The Avengers
    The Dark Knight Rises
    The Hunger Games

    For Director:
    Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
    *Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
    Ang Lee – Life of Pi
    David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
    Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

    So I see Tom Hooper winning for Director this year, because musicals require more elaboration for the narrative, and Lincoln winning Best Picture because 2012 was all about politics / elections, and america want’s to re-love the greatest president of them all.

  63. It is a small possibility but Peter Jackson could become a major upset. Also, he could be another director that gets 2 oscars in less than a decade. I feel Spielberg is the only absolute lock. Affleck, Bigelow and Russel are near locks but imagine seeing Jackson taking their place.

    I’m pretty sure The Hobbit will be nominated for BP just to fill the “blockbuster” slot (TDKR, Avengers, Skyfall and Hunger Games have zero chance, even though are great movies).

  64. danemychal

    Al Robinson – I can’t see ANY scenario in which Lincoln wins BP and Hooper takes BD. That is a wild theory you have going on there…

  65. Tero Heikkinen

    Those voters who look at people more than the films themselves will probably give a little edge for Lincoln. As said before, Kathleen Kennedy has never won (seven losses) and everybody in Hollywood knows her. Yes, everybody knows Kathy.

  66. The producers for Les Mis, I should add, were nominated twice (and lost) for Elizabeth and Atonement. Snubbed for United 93. They are not as “due” for an Oscar as Kennedy but its not like they haven’t paid their industry dues either.

  67. It seems that Django Unchained IS happening in the end. So… Mr. Weinstein, if possible, please… help Samuel L. Jackson get an Academy Award.

  68. Well my beef with SLJ and Oscar is that he’s said in the past that he just votes for his friends. So although I am a fan of his I’m not worried about him getting an Oscar.

    That Kathleen Kennedy stuff is interesting. I didn’t realize she was Oscarless. That is something to take into account, imo. My thinking on votes like that is not that people will vote for someone or something just for that reason. But if they are torn between two films and one of them would award a well-liked person who doesn’t have one, then I think that could make the difference.

  69. Yashar, the whole nonsense with Del Toro and turning a very short book into three cash grab movies pretty much keeps Jackson out of the conversation entirely. He wanted to be Lucas without realizing that would make him into Lucas

  70. Prediction: despite the talk on here of reaction being “mixed,” Les Miz will get at least an 80% on RT. I’d place the odds of it getting over 90% at 3-1.

  71. Did Ang Lee do anything more visually stunning than Avatar. What was groundbreaking. If we are talking groundbreaking then lets talk about doing an entire movie with live singing. Someone said that Les Miz is being critiqued for its direction ….. where??? No reviews out and most tweets stating nothing but raves. With the exception of a couple of bloggers stating that they really do not get sung through musicals then half the stuff I read on here is crap. Les Miz will have its lovers and haters …. BUT IT’S GROUNDBREAKING!

  72. So what? There are weeds in front of my house that are groundbreaking. :P

    Live singing is not groundbreaking. We’ve been over this like 90 gazillion times. http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2012/09/21/les_mis_rables_movie_actors_singing_live_is_this_new_.html

  73. Glenn UK

    It’s groundbreaking Antoinette – move on. Yeah lets go back to the glory days of musicals back in the 30’s that had 8 or 9 live songs (only because they did not have the superior technology of today) …. fastforward to today and an almost 3 hour movie sung live – where has that ever happened before? Hence – GROUNDBREAKING. But feel free to beat up on Les Miz – its totally expected on this site – Fanboy central.

  74. tonytr87

    My problem with Les Miz and other movies of its kind is it was very obviously made to win awards. I prefer to see movies like The Departed and The Social Network win, those that were not made to win awards. It’s so much more refreshing. And they often are better than the “Oscar films.”

  75. rufussondheim

    yes Les Miz was only made to win awards. Profit had nothing to do with it.

    I would bet even money right now that Les Miz will end up with the highest Box Office of any BP nominee.

  76. @Glenn UK

    That doesn’t make it GROUNDBREAKING. You can argue that it’s a step forward, but not groundbreaking. The Best Picture doesn’t need to be a GROUNDBREAKING film anyway, so “move on”.

    You’re right though, “fanboy central” indeed…

  77. “Did Ang Lee do anything more visually stunning than Avatar”

    Fuck, yeah, he did. He based ALL of his fx on things that occur naturally and enhanced them to a dreamlike state.

    Singing isn’t groundbreaking, live, recorded, dubbed by somebody else, or around a campfire. It just isn’t.

  78. Glenn UK

    Ahhhh I’m bathed in Fanboys!!!!

  79. cant wait to see the results..

    see also my blog click here

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