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Critics Choice Preview – Announcing Tuesday

The Critics Choice awards have been around for a relatively short time, since 1995, and is made up of a hodge podge of folks, many of which are Oscar bloggers themselves, like David Poland, Jeff Wells, Kris Tapley, Anne Thompson, Steve Pond, Nathaniel Rogers, Ed Douglas. They also include some actual film critics, like James Rocchi, Joanna Langfield and Zorianna Kit.

They give out ratings, or scores, for films that can sometimes be an indication of what will do well at their awards and sometimes not. For instance, An Education was rated higher by them than The Hurt Locker in 2009, but the latter went on to win the BFCA and the Oscar.

Like the New York Film critics, the BFCA prides themselves on their matching with Oscar. The truth about that is that they are really really good at picking what will eventually be the Best Picture nominees, particularly since Oscar expanded to ten, and then their weird procedure now. The BFCA is a bigger group than most critics awards but still not as big as the guilds. Their demographic is all over the place, not unlike Oscar, and it is dominated by males, like Oscar.   I haven’t counted exactly but I would estimate that it’s one woman for every five males.

The Critics Choice are better at predicting rather than pushing through borderline nominees. Drive, their pet film last year was mostly shut out by the Oscars. And in 2009, this was their headline after nominations, “Nine, Inglourious Basterds lead with ten nominations each. Avatar close behind with 9.” 

As we now know, Nine was not well received by the Academy. The films with the most nominations does not always win.

Where the BFCA are weak is in the individual categories. That’s because members of the select branches nominate for the Oscars, not the entire voting membership.

Now onto predictions.

I am going to make the bold prediction that Les Miserables leads the nominations. I will predict it will earn nominations in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress X2, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Art Direction, Sound, Song.  Give or take. If Rob Marshall’s 9 could lead with 9, you have to figure Les Miz will top that with, maybe, 10 or 11 nominations.

Whether this will be a big bump for Les Miserables or not will depend on which way the reviews go from here on out. Right now, Les Miz hovers at a 55 on Metacritic. The lowest ever Best Picture nominee was Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which has a score of 46. But the lowest Best Picture winner to date is Crash, at 69.  By contrast, Chicago has a score of 82.

But I think their top ten will be:

Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Looper

Looper is my wild card pick. Something tells me the BFCA will see fit to give Looper many nods in various categories.

The predictions for the rest of the categories would be to take the temperature of what most people are predicting right now because that is what nominations will look like. Like any other critics group and the Golden Globes, it’s always important to take the nominations with a grain of salt. They can help but they can’t hurt. The guild awards can hurt.

The history:

2011’s Critics Choice nominees:

BEST PICTURE
The Artist+
The Descendants*
Drive
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close*
The Help*
Hugo*
Midnight in Paris*
Moneyball*
The Tree of Life*
War Horse*

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, The Descendants*
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist+
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Brad Pitt, Moneyball*

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, The Help*
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady+
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn*
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior*
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Christopher Plummer, Beginners+
Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist*
Jessica Chastain, The Help*
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids*
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Octavia Spencer, The Help+
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Asa Butterfield, Hugo
Elle Fanning, Super 8
Thomas Horn, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Saoirse Ronan, Hanna
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March

BEST DIRECTOR
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+
Alexander Payne, The Descendants*
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Martin Scorsese, Hugo*
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius*
50/50 – Will Reiser
Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen+
Win Win – Tom McCarthy, Story by Tom McCarthy and Joe Tiboni
Young Adult – Diablo Cody

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash*
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Eric Roth
The Help – Tate Taylor
Hugo – John Logan*
Moneyball – Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Story by Stan Chervin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist – Guillaume Schiffman*
Drive – Newton Thomas Sigel
Hugo – Robert Richardson+
The Tree of Life – Emmanuel Lubezki*
War Horse – Janusz Kaminski*

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist – Production Designer: Laurence Bennett, Art Director: Gregory S. Hooper*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – Production Designer: Stuart Craig, Set Decorator: Stephenie McMillan*
Hugo – Production Designer: Dante Ferretti, Set Decorator: Francesca Lo Schiavo+
The Tree of Life – Production Designer: Jack Fisk, Art Director: David Crank
War Horse – Production Designer: Rick Carter, Set Decorator: Lee Sandales*

BEST EDITING
The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius and Anne-Sophie Bion
Drive – Matthew Newman
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall+
Hugo – Thelma Schoonmaker*
War Horse – Michael Kahn

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Artist – Mark Bridges+
The Help – Sharen Davis
Hugo – Sandy Powell*
Jane Eyre – Michael O’Connor*
My Week With Marilyn – Jill Taylor

BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady+
J. Edgar
My Week With Marilyn

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo+
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
The Tree of Life

BEST SOUND
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo+
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse*

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2*
Puss in Boots*
Rango+

BEST ACTION MOVIE
Drive
Fast Five
Hanna
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8

BEST COMEDY
Bridesmaids
Crazy, Stupid, Love
Horrible Bosses
Midnight in Paris
The Muppets

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In Darkness
Le Havre
A Separation+
The Skin I Live In
Where Do We Go Now?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Buck
Cave of Forgotten Dreams
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Page One: Inside the New York Times
Project Nim
Undefeated+

BEST SONG
“Hello, Hello” – performed by Elton John and Lady Gaga/written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin – Gnomeo & Juliet
“Life’s a Happy Song” – performed by Jason Segel, Amy Adams, and Walter/written by Bret McKenzie – The Muppets
“The Living Proof” – performed by Mary J. Blige/written by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman, and Harvey Mason, Jr. – The Help
“Man or Muppet” – performed by Jason Segel and Walter/written by Bret McKenzie – The Muppets+
“Pictures in My Head” – performed by Kermit and the Muppets/written by Jeannie Lurie, Aris Archontis, and Chen Neeman – The Muppets

BEST SCORE
The Artist – Ludovic Bource+
Drive – Cliff Martinez
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Hugo – Howard Shore*
War Horse – John Williams*

Critics Choice Nominees for 2010

* nominated for, *won

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours*
Black Swan*
The Fighter*
Inception*
The King’s Speech+
The Social Network*
The Town
Toy Story 3*
True Grit*
Winter’s Bone*

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Robert Duvall – Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network*
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech+
James Franco – 127 Hours*
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right*
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone*
Natalie Portman – Black Swan+
Noomi Rapace – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Fighter+
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Sam Rockwell – Conviction
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right*
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Fighter*
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech*
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter+
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit*
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom*

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Elle Fanning – Somewhere
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Chloe Grace Moretz – Let Me In
Chloe Grace Moretz – Kick-Ass
Kodi Smit-McPhee – Let Me In
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan*
Danny Boyle – 127 Hours*
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – True Grit*
David Fincher – The Social Network*
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech+
Christopher Nolan – Inception

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year – Mike Leigh*
Black Swan – Mark Heyman and Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin
The Fighter – Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson)*
Inception – Christopher Nolan*
The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg*
The King’s Speech – David Seidler+

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours – Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle*
The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin+
The Town – Peter Craig and Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard
Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt (Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)*
True Grit – Joel & Ethan Coen*
Winter’s Bone – Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini*

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
127 Hours – Anthony Dod Mantle and Enrique Chediak
Black Swan – Matthew Libatique*
Inception – Wally Pfister+
The King’s Speech – Danny Cohen*
True Grit – Roger Deakins*

BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland – Stefan Dechant and Robert Stromberg+
Black Swan – Therese DePrez and Tora Peterson
Inception – Guy Hendrix Dyas
The King’s Speech – Eve Stewart*
True Grit – Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh*

BEST EDITING
127 Hours – Jon Harris*
Black Swan – Andrew Weisblum*
Inception – Lee Smith
The Social Network – Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter+

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland – Colleen Atwood+
Black Swan – Amy Westcott
The King’s Speech – Jenny Beavan*
True Grit – Mary Zophres*

BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
True Grit

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1*
Inception+
Tron: Legacy

BEST SOUND
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception+
The Social Network*
Toy Story 3

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon*
The Illusionist*
Tangled
Toy Story 3*

BEST ACTION MOVIE
Inception
Kick-Ass
Red
The Town
Unstoppable

BEST COMEDY
Cyrus
Date Night
Easy A
Get Him to the Greek
I Love You Phillip Morris
The Other Guys

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
The Pacific
Temple Grandin
You Don’t Know Jack

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful
I Am Love
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit Through the Gift Shop*
Inside Job+
Restrepo*
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman

BEST SONG
“I See the Light” – performed by Mandy Moore & Zachary Levi/written by Alan Menken & Glenn Slater – Tangled*
“If I Rise” – performed by Dido and A.R. Rahman/music by A.R. Rahman/lyrics by Dido Armstrong and Rollo Armstrong – 127 Hours*
“Shine” – performed and written by John Legend – Waiting for Superman
“We Belong Together” – performed and written by Randy Newman – Toy Story 3+
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me Yet” – performed by Cher/written by Diane Warren –Burlesque

BEST SCORE
Black Swan – Clint Mansell
Inception – Hans Zimmer*
The King’s Speech – Alexandre Desplat*
The Social Network – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross+
True Grit – Carter Burwell

NOMINEES FOR THE 15TH ANNUAL CRITICS CHOICE MOVIE AWARDS

Nine, Inglourious Basterds lead with ten nominations each. Avatar close behind with 9.

BEST PICTURE

Avatar*
An Education*
The Hurt Locker+
Inglourious Basterds*
Invictus
Nine
Precious*
A Serious Man*
Up*
Up In The Air*

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges – “Crazy Heart‚”+
George Clooney – “Up In The Air”*
Colin Firth – “A Single Man”*
Morgan Freeman – “Invictus”*
Viggo Mortensen – “The Road”
Jeremy Renner – “The Hurt Locker”*

BEST ACTRESS

Emily Blunt – “The Young Victoria”
Sandra Bullock – “The Blind Side”+
Carey Mulligan – “An Education”
Saoirse Ronan – “The Lovely Bones”
Gabourey Sidibe – “Precious”
Meryl Streep – “Julie & Julia”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon – “Invictus”*
Woody Harrelson – “The Messenger”*
Christian McKay – “Me And Orson Welles”
Alfred Molina – “An Education”*
Stanley Tucci – “The Lovely Bones”*
Christoph Waltz – “Inglourious Basterds”+

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard – “Nine”
Vera Farmiga – “Up In The Air”*
Anna Kendrick – “Up In The Air”*
Mo’Nique – “Precious”+
Julianne Moore – “A Single Man”
Samantha Morton – “The Messenger”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Jae Head – “The Blind Side”
Bailee Madison – “Brothers”
Max Records – “Where The Wild Things Are”
Saoirse Ronan – “The Lovely Bones”
Kodi Smit-McPhee – “The Road”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
Star Trek
Up In The Air

BEST DIRECTING

Kathryn Bigelow – “The Hurt Locker”+
James Cameron – “Avatar”*
Lee Daniels – “Precious”*
Clint Eastwood – “Invictus”
Jason Reitman – “Up In The Air”*
Quentin Tarantino – “Inglourious Basterds”*

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal – “The Hurt Locker”+
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – “A Serious Man”*
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – “(500) Days Of Summer”
Bob Peterson, Peter Docter – “Up”*
Quentin Tarantino – “Inglourious Basterds”*

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach – “Fantastic Mr. Fox”
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell – “District 9″*
Geoffrey Fletcher – “Precious”+
Tom Ford, David Scearce – “A Single Man”
Nick Hornby – “An Education”*
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – “Up In The Air”*

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Barry Ackroyd – “The Hurt Locker”*
Dion Beebe – “Nine”
Mauro Fiore – “Avatar”+
Andrew Lesnie – “The Lovely Bones”
Robert Richardson – “Inglourious Basterds”*

BEST ART DIRECTION

Dan Bishop – “A Single Man”
Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg – “Avatar”+
John Myhre, Gordon Sim – “Nine”*
Naomi Shohan, George De Titta, Jr. – “The Lovely Bones”
David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds Wasco – “Inglourious Basterds”

BEST EDITING

Dana E. Glauberman – “Up In The Air”
Sally Menke – “Inglourious Basterds”*
Bob Murawski, Chris Innis – “The Hurt Locker”+
Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron – “Avatar”*
Claire Simpson, Wyatt Smith – “Nine”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Colleen Atwood – “Nine”*
Janet Patterson – “Bright Star”*
Sandy Powell – “The Young Victoria”+
Anna Sheppard – “Inglourious Basterds”
Casey Storm – “Where The Wild Things Are”*

BEST MAKEUP

Avatar
District 9
Nine
The Road
Star Trek+

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar+
District 9*
The Lovely Bones
Star Trek*
2012

BEST SOUND

Avatar*
District 9
The Hurt Locker+
Nine
Star Trek*

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
Coraline*
Fantastic Mr. Fox*
Princess And The Frog*
Up+

BEST ACTION MOVIE

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek

BEST COMEDY

(500) Days Of Summer
The Hangover
It’s Complicated
The Proposal
Zombieland

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Gifted Hands
Grey Gardens
Into The Storm
Taking Chance

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Broken Embraces
Coco Before Chanel
Red Cliff
Sin Nombre
The White Ribbon*

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Anvil
Capitalism: A Love Story
The Cove+
Food, Inc.*
Michael Jackson’s This Is It

BEST SONG

“All Is Love” – Karen O, Nick Zinner – “Where The Wild Things Are”
“Almost There” – Randy Newman – “The Princess And The Frog”*
“Cinema Italiano” – Maury Yeston – “Nine”
“(I Want To) Come Home” – Paul McCartney – “Everybody’s Fine”
“The Weary Kind” – T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham – “Crazy Heart”+

BEST SCORE

Michael Giacchino – “Up”+
Marvin Hamlisch – “The Informant!”
Randy Newman – “The Princess and the Frog”
Karen O, Carter Burwell – “Where The Wild Things Are”
Hans Zimmer – “Sherlock Holmes”*

 

12 Comments on this Post

  1. Dion Blackler

    Is your Argo omission an oversight? I hope so! I know it has lost some heat but I still think it’s a shoe-in for a nomination.

  2. Chris138

    Yeah, I think Argo will definitely get in over Looper or Flight.

  3. Sasha Stone

    Yes, a DUMB mistake. Thanks. I knew I was forgetting something.

  4. Predictions contest? Or are there too many categories and y’all have better things to do? :D

    They’ll try as hard as they can to match with Oscar so I’m not sure they’ll go for Looper. Like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, if there are any surprises, I expect them to be baity, like The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Hitchcock or Quartet. Other than that, they’ll follow the crowd in Best Picture, and flail about a bit the less mainstream the categories get.

    But Looper may get a few nominations in tech categories. They like their action / sci-fi movies in categories like Sound and Visual Effects (they just lack the imagination to look beyond these genres in these categories).

  5. They will nominate Django Unchained and probably The Master. They won’t snub both considering in a 10-BP-Oscar-Field both are good bets for the top 10. Looper has zero chance of Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. In such a competitive year and knowing their preferences, they won’t go for it.

  6. Bball_Jake

    I predict:
    Argo
    The Master
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Django Unchained

  7. I’m interested in Django Unchained. Love me some QT. I’ve only read really positive things from the DGA screening but once the real review come in, they could go the way of Les Miserables. Did you leave it off the list because you think it doesn’t stand a chance or it’s too soon to tell?

  8. For what it’s worth, Les Mis has an 89/100 on the Critic’s Choice site and Lincoln has an 88. Heck, ZDT has a 92/100 but not enough reviews to obtain the “Critics’ Choice” seal yet I guess (Still has just the four star rating).

    Seems like Les Mis is going to do well here.

  9. I definitely have a feeling Sally Field is going to win! Lincoln is getting rave reviews, along with a great performance from Sally. Les Misérables is a polarizing film, getting mixed reviews at best, which doesn’t bode well with Anne winning. Even though, she’s getting superb reviews for her performance. I don’t think it will be enough to guarantee her win.

  10. I say…
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Argo
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Life of Pi
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom

    Alternate: Flight

  11. Does the BFCA announce their nominees live on TV?

  12. Amour
    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    *Alternates: Django Unchained, The Master

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