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For the first time in probably their entire history, the DGA will announce their five nominees after the Oscar ballots have been turned in. That means that they can’t be counted to on as a “true north” this time.  Some people don’t think they ever were but I have a feeling they lend legitimacy to an otherwise fringe contender.  I could be wrong, of course.

The DGA membership is huge — 14, 500 members, where Oscar’s directing branch is much smaller, less than 500.   That accounts for the disconnect between the DGA and Oscar most years.  You can easily figure out three of the Best Director contenders this year.  Right now, the hot three are:

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck Argo

It looks like the fourth name might be:

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

From there, you have one slot and three names:
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Wild cards: Michael Haneke, Amour; Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master, Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises (thanks, readers, I had forgotten him but you’re right…could sneak in there)

The truth is that I have no idea, nor does anyone else, what five names the thousands of DGA members will pick. My instinct is to go for David O. Russell because I really think Silver Linings Playbook is likable enough to get a large consensus vote like that. DGA ballots have a longer time to gestate than Oscar ballots so those members will have more time to see the later breaking films, like Zero Dark Thirty, Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty.

But that slot could go to any of these three.  According to Anne Thompson, Life is Pi is popular with voters.  Neither David O. Russell nor Tom Hooper are particularly well liked, not as well liked as Ang Lee and Quentin Tarantino, both of whom are beloved in the industry.

Finally, a twist: the Golden Globe hasn’t matched Oscar 5/5 for many years.  I think it’s 1977 when last they matched 100%.

 

I will post my final predictions as we get closer to the date.

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

2012

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck, Argo Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

2011

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist* Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+
Martin Scorsese, Hugo Martin Scorsese, Hugo Martin Scorsese, Hugo Martin Scorsese, Hugo*
Alexander Payne, The Descendants Alexander Payne, The Descendants Alexander Payne, The Descendants Alexander Payne, The Descendants*
Stephen Daldry, Loud/Close Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris*
Steven Spielberg, War Horse George Clooney, Ides of March David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick, Tree of Life*
Refn, Drive

2010

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Tom Hooper The King’s Speech Tom Hooper The King’s Speech Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+
David Fincher, Social Network David Fincher, Social Network David Fincher, Social Network David Fincher, Social Network*
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan*
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours David O’Russell, The Fighter David O’Russell, The Fighter David O’Russell, The Fighter*
Christopher Nolan, Inception Christopher Nolan, Inception Christopher Nolan, Inception
The Coens, True Grit The Coens, True Grit*

2009

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ Bigelow, Hurt Locker+
Lee Daniels, Precious Lee Daniels, Precious* Lee Daniels, Precious Lee Daniels, Precious*
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Jason Reitman, Up in the Air*
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Clint Eastwood Invictus Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds*
Eastwood, Invictus
Jim Cameron, Avatar Jim Cameron, Avatar* Jim Cameron, Avatar Jim Cameron, Avatar*

2008

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Danny Boyle, Slumdog Danny Boyle, Slumdog Danny Boyle, Slumdog+
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon*
Gus Van Sant, Milk Sam Mendes, RR Gus Van Sant, Milk Gus Van Sant, Milk*
David Fincher, Benjamin Button David Fincher, Benjamin Button* David Fincher, Benjamin Button David Fincher, Benjamin Button*
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Stephen Daldry, The Reader* Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Stephen Daldry, The Reader*

2007

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+
Sean Penn, Into the Wild Ridley Scott, American Gangster Sean Penn, Into the Wild Jason Reitman, Juno*
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement* Joe Wright, Atonement* Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton*
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood*

2006

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Stephen Frears, The Queen Stephen Frears, The Queen Stephen Frears, The Queen Stephen Frears, The Queen*
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel*
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima*
Paul Greengrass, United 93 Paul Greengrass, United 93 Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine* Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ Martin Scorsese, The Departed Martin Scorsese, The Departed+
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls Clint Eastwood Flags of Our Fathers Bill Condon, Dreamgirls

2005

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain* Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain *
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck*
Paul Haggis, Crash Meirelles, Gardener Paul Haggis, Crash Paul Haggis, Crash+
Woody Allen, Match Point
Ron Howard, Cinderella Man Peter Jackson, King Kong Bennett Miller, Capote Bennett Miller, Capote*
Steven Spielberg, Munich Steven Spielberg, Munich * Steven Spielberg, Munich Steven Spielberg, Munich *

2004

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Alexander Payne for Sideways Alexander Payne for Sideways* Alexander Payne for Sideways Alexander Payne for Sideways*
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* Martin Scorsese for The Aviator Martin Scorsese for The Aviator*
Taylor Hackford for Ray Mike Nichols, Closer Taylor Hackford for Ray Taylor Hackford for Ray*
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* Mike Leigh for Vera Drake
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+

2003

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation*
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Clint Eastwood, Mystic River*
Peter Jackson, ROTK Peter Jackson, ROTK+ Peter Jackson, ROTK Peter Jackson, ROTK+
Tim Burton, Big Fish Peter Weir, Master and Commander* Peter Weir, Master and Commander Peter Weir, Master and Commander*
Jim Sheridan, In America Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain Gary Ross, Seabiscuit* Fernando Merielles, City of God

2002

BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York Martin Scorsese*
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* Pedro Almodovar
Alexander Payne, About Schmidt Roman Polanski, The Pianist Roman Polanski*
Spike Jonze, Adaptation
Rob Marshall+ Rob Marshall, Chicago Rob Marshall+
Steven Daldry* Steven Daldry, The Hours Steven Daldry*

2001

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Peter Jackson, LOTR*
Robert Altman, Gosford Park Robert Altman, Gosford Park*
A.I. Artificial Intelligence Steven Spielberg Christopher Nolan, Memento Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge* Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge*

2000

Globes | DGA | Oscar

István Szabó, Sunshine Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot*
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*
Ridley Scott, Gladiator Ridley Scott, Gladiator Ridley Scott, Gladiator+
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich *
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic Steven Soderbergh, Traffic Steven Soderbergh, Traffic*

1999

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Neil Jordan, The End of the Affair Frank Darabont, The Green Mile* Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules*
Anthony Minghella, The Talented Mr. Ripley Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich
Michael Mann, The Insider Michael Mann, The Insider Michael Mann, The Insider*
Sam Mendes, American Beauty Sam Mendes, American Beauty Sam Mendes, American Beauty+
Norman Jewison,The Hurricane M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense*

1998

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Shekhar Kapur,Elizabeth Peter Weir, Truman Show Peter Weir, Truman Show
Robert Redford,The Horse Whisperer Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line
John Madden, Shakes in Love John Madden, Shakes in Love John Madden, Shakes in Love*
Steven Spielberg, SPR Steven Spielberg, SPR Steven Spielberg, SPR
Peter Weir, The Truman Show Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

1997

Globes | DGA | Oscar

James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets* Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty*
Steven Spielberg Amistad Steven Spielberg Amistad Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter
Jim Sheridan, The Boxer Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting*
James Cameron, Titanic James Cameron, Titanic James Cameron, Titanic+
Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential*

1996

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Alan Parker, Evita Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire* Milos Forman for The People vs. Larry Flynt
Joel Coen, Fargo Joel Coen, Fargo Joel Coen, Fargo*
Milos Foreman, Larry Flint Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies *
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient Anthony Minghella, The English Patient Anthony Minghella, The English Patient+
Scott Hicks, Shine Scott Hicks, Shine Scott Hicks, Shine*

1995

Globes | DGA | Oscar

The American Pres, Rob Reiner Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas
Mel Gibson for Braveheart Mel Gibson for Braveheart Mel Gibson for Braveheart+
Ron Howard for Apollo 13 Ron Howard for Apollo 13* Chris Noonan for Babe*
Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility* Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking
Casino, Martin Scorsese Michael Radford for Il Postino Michael Radford for Il Postino*

1994

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Ed Zwick, Legends of Fall Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral* Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway
Oliver Stone, NBK Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption* Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red
Robert Redford for Quiz Show Robert Redford for Quiz Show Robert Redford for Quiz Show*
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction*
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump+

1993

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* Robert Altman for Short Cuts
Jane Campion for The Piano Jane Campion for The Piano Jane Campion for The Piano*
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day*
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence Jim Sheridan for In the Name Of the Father*
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List+

1992

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Robert Altman, The Player Robert Altman, The Player Robert Altman, The Player
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men* Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men* Martin Brest for Scent Of a Woman*
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven+
James Ivory for Howards End James Ivory for Howards End James Ivory for Howards End*
Through It Robert Redford, A River Runs Neil Jordan for The Crying Game Neil Jordan for The Crying Game*

1991

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides* Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides* John Singleton for Boyz N the Hood
Oliver Stone for JFK Oliver Stone for JFK Oliver Stone for JFK*
Terry Gilliam, The Fisher King Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise
Barry Levinson for Bugsy Barry Levinson for Bugsy Barry Levinson for Bugsy*
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs+

1990

Globes | DGA | Oscar

Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III*
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves+
Bernardo Bertolucci, The Sheltering Sky Barry Levinson for Avalon Stephen Frears for The Grifters
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas*
Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune

For the win only

Globes | DGA | Oscar

+also won Best Picture

1989 Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA)
1988 Clint Eastwood, Bird Barry Levinson, Rain Man Barry Levinson, Rain Man+
1987 Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+
1986 Oliver Stone, Platoon Oliver Stone, Platoon Oliver Stone, Platoon+
1985 John Huston, Prizzi’s Honor Steven Spielberg, Color Purple Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+
1984: Milos Forman, Amadeus Milos Forman, Amadeus Milos Forman, Amadeus+
1983: Barbra Streisand, Yentl James Brooks, Terms of Endearment James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+
1982: Richard Attenborough, Gandhi Richard Attenborough, Gandhi Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+
1981: Warren Beatty, Reds Warren Beatty, Reds Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire)
1980: Robert Redford, Ordinary People Robert Redford, Ordinary People Robert Redford, Ordinary People+
1979: Frances Ford Coppola, Apocalypse Now Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+
1978: Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+
1977: Herbert Ross, The Turning Point Woody Allen, Annie Hall Woody Allen, Annie Hall+
1976: Sidney Lumet, Network John Avildson, Rocky John Avildson, Rocky+
1975: Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+
1974: William Friedkin, The Exorcist Frances Coppola, Godfather II Frances Coppola, Godfather II+
1973: George Roy Hill, The Sting George Roy Hill, The Sting George Roy Hill+
1972: Frances Coppola, The Godfather Frances Coppola, The Godfather Bob Fosse, Cabaret (Godfather)
1971: William Friedkin, The French Connection William Friedkin, The French Connection William Friedkin, The French Connection+
1970: Arthur Hiller, Love Story Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+
1969: Charles Jarott, Anne of a Thousand Days John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+
1968: Paul Newman, Rachel Rachel Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter Carol Reed, Oliver+
1967: Mike Nichols, The Graduate Mike Nichols, The Graduate Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night)
1966: Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+
1965: David Lean, Doctor Zhivago Robert Wise, The Sound of Music Robert Wise, the Sound of Music+
1964: George Cukor, My Fair Lady George Cukor, My Fair Lady George Cukor, My Fair Lady+
1963: Elia Kazan, America America Tony Richardson, Tom Jones Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+
1962: David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+
1961: Stanley Kramer, Judgment at Nuremberg Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+
1960: Jack Cardiff, Sons and Lovers Billy Wilder, The Apartment Billy Wilder, The Apartment+
1959: William Wyler, Ben Hur William Wyler, Ben Hur William Wyler, Ben Hur+
1958: Vincent Minnelli, Gigi Vincent Minnelli, Gigi Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+
1957: David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+
1956: George Stevens, Giant George Stevens, Giant George Stevens, Giant (Around/World in 80 Days)
1955: Joshua Logan, Picnic/Elia Kazan, Baby Doll Delbert Mann, Marty Delbert Mann, Marty+
1954: Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+
1953: Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity+
1952: Cecil B Demille Greatest Show on Earth John Ford, The Quiet Man John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth)
1951: László Benedek, Death of a Salesman George Stevens, A Place in the Sun George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris)
1950: Billy Wilder, Sunset Blvd. Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+
1949: Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives (All the King’s Men)
1948: John Huston, Treasure of Sierra Madre Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet)
1947 Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement
1946 Frank Capra, It’s a Wonderful Life William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives
1945 Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend
1944 Leo McCary for Going My Way Leo McCary for Going My Way Leo McCary for Going My Way
1943 Henry King, Song of Bernadette Michael Curtiz for Casablanca Michael Curtiz for Casablanca