Golden Globes Preview

The HFPA are announcing their nominees tomorrow.   With all of the dates being pushed back this year, the Globes aren’t as early as they usually are so they might actually be more useful than they’ve been in the recent past. Although the HFPA takes a lot of crap for being bought and paid for by studios, and/or foreign journalists nobody can identify, the truth is that it doesn’t really matter in the end; their nominees and winners do matter. They have as much an impact on the race as any other major critics awards, and are the second most watched awards show after the Oscars.  Winning a Globe gives you the world stage, and it ups your chances to win an Oscar significantly. Except when it doesn’t.

I’ll contend that after James Cameron won the Globe for Avatar it was an uncomfortable moment that eventually led to Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker’s victory.  Sometimes wins can feel “wrong” as much as they can feel “right.” It just depends on how much gratitude the contender decides to show. It’s always a good thing, for instance, to turn on the waterworks. People who bestow awards like to feel like they’re doing a good deed. So the wrong reaction is entitlement. The right reaction is gratitude. Hey, you asked. Well, maybe you didn’t ask but I’m offering up this theory which probably has one foot in a big pile of bullshit and the other foot in the truth. I won’t tell you which is which.

I have posted my predictions over at Gold Derby but I will go over them now.  Try to hide your excitement.

The question is what movie do well here. Many are assuming that movie with be Les Miserables. The Globes have traditionally embraced musicals and musicals with that much emotion appears to be up their street.  We shall see tomorrow.

Best Picture, Drama

Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
alts. Atonement, The Impossible

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
This is 40
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt. Hyde park on Hudson

Best Actor, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
Alt: Ben Affleck, Argo

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Cruise, Rock of Ages
Jack Black, Bernie
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs

Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Alt: Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guild Trip
Bette Midler, Parental Guidance
Leslie Mann, This is 40

Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

The rest you can check out over at Gold Derby.  This is the last ugly morning until the Oscar nominations are announced.

Actor SAG 2011 GLOBES OSCAR
Jean DuJardin, The Artist Jean DuJardin, The Artist Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar Fassbender, Shame Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Demian Bichir, A Better Life Demian Bichir, A Better Life Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants George Clooney, The Descendants George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball Brad Pitt, Moneyball Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress 2011 2011
Viola Davis, The Help Viola Davis, The Help Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo
Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Supporting Actor 2011 2011
Christopher Plummer, Beginners Christopher Plummer, Beginners Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Nick Nolte, Warrior Albert Brooks, Drive Nick Nolte, Warrior
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball Jonah Hill, Moneyball Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar Viggo Mortensen, Dangerous Method Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close
Supporting Actress 2011 2011
Octavia Spencer, The Help Octavia Spencer, The Help Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help Jessica Chastain, The Help Jessica Chastain, The Help
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist Bérénice Bejo, The Artist Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Shailene Woodley, Descendants Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting GLOBES OSCAR
The Help The Help The Help
The Artist The Artist The Artist
Bridesmaids Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris
The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants
Hugo Hugo
Moneyball Moneyball
War Horse War Horse
The Ides of March
Actor GLOBES OSCAR
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jeff Bridges, True Grit Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours James Franco, 127 Hours James Franco, 127 Hours
Actress GLOBES OSCAR
Natalie Portman, Black Swan Natalie Portman, Black Swan Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Hillary Swank, Conviction Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Supporting Actor GLOBES OSCAR
Christian Bale, The Fighter Christian Bale, The Fighter Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone Michael Douglas, Wall St 2 John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right Andrew Garfield TSN Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right
Jeremy Renner, The Town Jeremy Renner, The Town Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, TKS Geoffrey Rush, TKS Geoffrey Rush, TKS
Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS Helena Bonham Carter, TKS Helena Bonham Carter, TKS
Mila Kunis, Black Swan Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Mila Kunis, Black Swan Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting Globes Oscar
The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
The Kids Are Alright The Kids Are Alright The Kids Are Alright
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Inception Inception

 

Gold Derby Check-in – Most Say Les Miserables Will Win

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Golden Globes, No Guts, No Glory!

56 Comments

  1. David
    December 12, 2012

    Atonement as a BP Drama alternate?

  2. David
    December 12, 2012

    Atonement is a contender this year too? Damn, Redgrave for the oscar!

  3. Lynne
    December 12, 2012

    I don’t know how Nicole Kidman manage to do this, but kudos to her! She went from having some buzz, completely silence (panned film), then getting award buzz again!

  4. Joey
    December 12, 2012

    I bet Anna Kendrick gets in for Pitch Perfect.

  5. Joey J Glover
    December 12, 2012

    I fucking LOVE Atonement…

  6. scary
    December 12, 2012

    Where is The Exotic Marigold Hotel?
    Best Picture in Comedy or Musical
    Best Actress in Comedy or Musical, Judi Dench
    Best Supporting Actress, Maggie Smiths
    maybe Best Actor in Comedy or Musical, Bill Nighy

    Django Unchained will replace Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Anthony Hopkins gets in Best Actor Drama
    Alan Arkin in Best Supporting Actor

  7. Dylan
    December 12, 2012

    Atonement?? do u mean Anna Karenina?

  8. Casey
    December 12, 2012

    I like the predictions Sasha. Some really bold pics.

    Below are mine – with my changes to yours in all Caps. I have this crazy feeling in some categories – I could be wrong and they mostly could be NGNG. We shall see tomorrow!! (its the most wonderful time of year!)

    Best Picture, Drama

    Lincoln
    Argo
    Zero Dark Thirty
    DJANGO UNCHAINED
    Beasts of the Southern Wild

    I think globes will be the first burst for Django

    Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Les Miserables
    Moonrise Kingdom
    This is 40
    Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

    we agree 100%

    Best Actor, Drama
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    Denzel Washington, Flight
    Richard Gere, Arbitrage
    ANTHONY HOPKINS – Hitchcock

    I agree they would want Brad and Angie there – but I feel Hitchcock is very Globey.

    Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
    Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    SETH ROGAN – The Guilt Trip
    Jack Black, Bernie
    Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs

    I just cannot get on board with the cruise nom in lead. But who knows, stranger things have happened.

    Best Actress, Drama
    Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
    Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    EMMANUEL RIVA – Amour

    I think Globes will be Riva’s breakthrough in larger scale noms. (at least I am hoping)

    Best Actress Musical/Comedy
    Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
    Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
    KRISTIN WIIG – Imogen
    Leslie Mann, This is 40

    * Taking a HUGE chance on this one. I feel like no one has seen or heard of this movie. And it is more of a drama than a comedy for sure – but the globes love to nominate Wiig – and I think she may be the big surprise.

    Supporting Actor
    Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    LEONARDO DiCAPRIO – Django Unchained
    EDDIE REDMAYNE – Les Miserables

    I think they cannot resist DiCaprio. And I predict huge love for les mis, and Eddie Redmayne is looking to be the next in line for attention

    Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Sally Field, Lincoln
    Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    ANN DOWD – Compliance
    SAMANTHA BARKS – Les Miserables

    I think the Kidman support is too late – and SAG is the big surprise (although a great one). I think Dowd will get in, because shes that good. And Barks picks up on the love from Les Mis.

    Director
    Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    Ben Affleck, Argo
    QUENTIN TARANTINO – Django Unchained
    Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
    Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

    They want Quentin there.

  9. Mark F.
    December 12, 2012

    I hate this group and their Awards Show. It’s been absurd from Day One.

  10. December 12, 2012

    I don’t see a scenario in which Ted doesn’t get nominated for Best Musical / Comedy.

    Also, last year they went hard for The Ides of March (on the Clooney factor, of course). That film was dead and nearly buried by that stage, and it went on to be embraced also by the PGA, and then receive an Oscar nomination for its screenplay. They might do something similar this year, and revive a film we had all ruled out. Maybe Anna Karenina? Or something unproven like The Impossible (they like international productions, being the Hollywood Foreign Press Association)? Even Flight?

  11. Ascaris born
    December 12, 2012

    Look for Ang Lee nominated for Best Director.

  12. December 12, 2012

    A few things worth considering:

    - They love their stars. Nobody would watch the Golden Globes if they didn’t have a red carpet packed full of A-listers, because they lack the prestige of the Oscars. That’s why I think your call for Brad Pitt, Sasha, is a smart one, although it’d be more likely to come true were Killing Them Softly not bombing hard at the box office. The Tom Cruise call is smart too, and they love Nicole Kidman, so she’s sure to get in (particularly what with her SAG nomination today).
    - They’re not as staid as you might think. Their reputation isn’t great for picking outside-the-box contenders, but this reputation is false. Every year, there’s at least one WTF moment from the Globes. Sometimes, it’s a WTF moment for the wrong reasons, if the film is shit (The Tourist in ’10) or the nominee ousted a much better contender (Will Ferrell over Jake Gyllenhaal in ’05). But sometimes, they pick a surprise gem, like Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom, or Sally Hawkins beating four better-known actresses in ’08. Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, Ann Dowd – all would be unconventional choices for a big-time association like the HFPA, but all have a good shot at getting in.
    - They love giving their musicals and comedies loads of nominations. They like to sneak directors and actors from the films nominated for Musical/Comedy-only categories into other categories. It helps give the category divisions some credibility. Every year, it’s clear that the Drama categories are much stronger (to the extent that the press regularly reports the Best Picture – Drama category as simply Best Picture), yet contenders from dramas miss out on nominations, which will go to musicals and comedies. It strengthens the Musical/Comedy categories.
    - They love foreign / international productions. It’s the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after all. This makes me expect to see both Marion Cotillard and Emmanuelle Riva in for Best Actress, and to see Life of Pi show up in four categories (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Score), maybe five (Song), and The Impossible to potentially do very well too.

    #longestcommentever

  13. steve50
    December 12, 2012

    Oh, god – this morning SAG, tomorrow the Globes. I’ll be sure to put my coffee in a sippy cup, something I didn’t do this morning – big mistake. Still cleaning my keyboard.

    I expect that there will be no major surprises, except for the annual “Pia Zadora WTF” nomination, which actually make the Globes kind of fun. They also often spot the overlooked and put them back in the limelight.

    I’m guessing they don’t go all Django (unless Harvey got the entire HFP laid recently). Pi, The Master, and Beasts have the most to lose and all three need this nomination or the awards trek is over for them. ZDT, Lincoln, and Argo are sure bets.

    It won’t matter what else they put against Les Miserables and SLP because they have no prayer whatsoever.

    Same for Supporting Actress – the race is between Mary Todd and Cat-erwauling-Woman. (C’mon, you knew it was coming)

    Best Supporting Actor – it will probably appear as though they used a giant wheel with names on it. Nobody is a lock and nobosy will surprise, that’s how wdie open I think it is.

    Best Actor – they remembered Fassbender last year, so Phoenix is assured a spot. Maybe they’ll surprise with someone like Denis Lavant?

    Best Actress – a MINIMUM of two French-speaking ladies, please.

  14. unlikely hood
    December 12, 2012

    You’re kicking John Hawkes to the curb for Richard Gere and Brad Pitt? Whoa. That IS an unlikelihood.

    I’m a little surprised the Rachel Weisz is your alternate on Actress and Emmanuelle Riva is MIA. Weisz got one split vote in NY. Amour is getting much more scattered support. I think Riva is in this thing and will probably bump out Knightley.

    Glad you *don’t* have Alan Arkin (for reasons I made clear on the other thread), but I’m skeptical on Waltz. If they go Django, they go DiCaprio. Orgo f themselves.

    Best Supporting Actress – sure. Kidman is shaky, but she’s as good a guess as any.

    These Best Director nods will be fascinating. Whoever is not Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg, or Hooper – whoever gets the fifth slot – just got a HUGE inside lane to a nomination. Russell is as good a bet as there is, but Lee, Tarantino, even Zeitlin, wouldn’t be shocks.

  15. kasper
    December 12, 2012

    Here are my differences from Sasha’s:

    I have The Master instead of Beasts of the Southern Wild.
    I have Quartet instead of This is 40
    Ben Affleck & John Hawkes instead of Richard Gere & Brad Pitt
    Bill Murray instead of Tom Cruise
    Emmanuelle Riva & Helen Mirren instead of Quvenzhane Wallis & Keira Knightley
    Judi Dench & Maggie Smith instead of Leslie Mann & Bette Middler
    Leonardo DiCaprio instead of Christoph Waltz
    Maggie Smith instead of Nicole Kidman
    Ang Lee instead of David O. Russell

    But for the most part I am not confident of these differences (except for Actor Drama, maybe)

  16. Bella
    December 12, 2012

    I read this really interesting article from the Guardian that shed light on the reasons why The Master was snubbed by the SAGS. The author suggests that Phoenix’s past comments may have played a part in his snub, but that it’s highly unlikely. Amy Adams, who is beloved by the Guild, was not nominated either. That in itself speaks more to how the film was generally received than Joaquin Phoenix’s comments.

    The author also suggests that the reason Joaquin Phoenix may have been snubbed was because the actors were uncomfortable with the performance – that it bordered on being “exploitative” in it’s possible depiction of a real damaged soul. According to the author, Phoenix’s performance is the kind that makes people wonder “how much of this is acting and how much is he going through a breakdown?”

    I think that’s a really interesting way of looking at it. The argument may not hold any weight (after all, they probably just hated the film) but it does make you wonder how they consider the nominations.

    The author goes on to state that there’s a good chance Phoenix (and Adams) will receive Oscar nominations since, with ballots being mailed in less than a week, actors will feel compelled to stand up for his performance even more.

    We’ll see what happens. I hope Phoenix gets nominated but you never know… You can find the article here:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2012/dec/12/sag-awards-snub-joaquin-phoenix?CMP=twt_fd

    In any case, he should be nominated tomorrow and that will make me happy:) If Richard Gere makes it through, I’ll be ecstatic!

  17. Golden
    December 12, 2012

    D-J-A-N-G-O – The D is not silent.

    Django will walk away with the most noms tomorrow.

  18. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    I think The Impossible is a lock for Best Drama.

    I’m not 100% sold on Lincoln getting the nom for Best Drama. It’s such an historically based film, and it doesn’t explain very much along the way, that I’m wondering if non-Americans will enjoy it in the same way many Americans have. Something tells me that if it gets a nom it will be because the voters know they are supposed to support it rather than wanting to support it.

    I think Rachel Weisz and Helen Mirren will both get nominated. They are English and a good portion of the HFPA is English and both are credible nominees.

    I think Beasts of the Southern Wild is out. I think it is this year’s Drive in that it’s a critical success but not in these, let’s face it, mildly stupid awards organizations. Plus, there’s no big stars in it.

    Best Drama
    1) Zero Dark Thirty
    2) Argo
    3) The Impossible
    4) Life of Pi
    5) Lincoln

    Best Other
    1) Les Miz
    2) Silver Linings Playbook
    3) Moonrise Kingdom
    4) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    5) The Sessions (not sure if it’s a comedy, but the trailer sure wants us to think so)

    Best Actor Drama
    1) Daniel Day-Lewis
    2) Joachin Phoenix
    3) Anthony Hopkins
    4) Denzel Washington
    5) Ben Affleck

    Best Actor Other
    1) Hugh Jackman
    2) Bradley Cooper
    3) John Hawkes
    4) Mark Wahlberg
    5) Tommy Lee Jones

    Best Actress
    1) Jessica Chastain
    2) Naomi Watts
    3) Helen Mirren
    4) Marion Cotillard
    5) Emanuelle Riva

    Best Actress Other
    1) Jennifer Lawrence
    2) Helen Hunt
    3) Judi Dench (Isn’t she a lead in Exotic?)
    4) Meryl Streep
    5) Barbra Streisand

    Best DIrector
    1) Tom Hooper
    2) Ben Affleck
    3) Kathryn Bigelow
    4) Ang Lee
    5) David O’Russell

    (And this was my NGNG pick – excluding Spielberg)

    Best Male Support
    1) Robert DeNiro
    2) Tommy Lee Jones
    3) Russell Crowe
    4) Eddie Redmayne
    5) Javier Bardem

    Best Female Support
    1) Anne Hathaway
    2) Samantha Barks
    3) Sally Field
    4) Judi Dench
    5) Maggie Smith

  19. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Oops, I was stupid, take away Emanuelle Riva and add Rachel Weisz in the number 5 slot.

  20. helios
    December 12, 2012

    I’m not 100% sold on Lincoln getting the nom for Best Drama.

    If it were up to you Lincoln would be shut out of the entire awards race. In the real world however it is getting nominated for Best Drama, you can bet on it.

  21. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Yes, it probably will. That’s why I included it in my predictions. But if it doesn’t, my draw won’t be dropping. I see the other four as really strong pics, though and I see Lincoln as being the most vulnerable of the five. Lucky for Lincoln, there’s not a real strong #6 unless you want to count Django Unchained.

  22. Five Easy Pieces
    December 12, 2012

    NGNG Golden Globes — Aubrey Plaza, best actress in a comedy, “Safety Not Guaranteed,” either Judi Dench or Javier Bardem in supporting for “Skyfall” and “Amour” for Best Picture, Drama.

  23. Five Easy Pieces
    December 12, 2012

    One more NGNG — Jennifer Garner, Best Actress in a Comedy for “Butter.” It’s a Weinstein movie, plus with Ben Affleck nominated for director and maybe actor for “Argo,” they can have their Hollywood power couple attend, even without Pitt and Jolie.

  24. G.R.A.Y.
    December 12, 2012

    NO GUTS NO GLORY

    JOHNNY DEPP for BEST ACTOR in DARK SHADOWS!!!!!!

  25. Felipe
    December 12, 2012

    Marion Cotillard deserves the Golden Globe Actress Drama and Oscar nomination or winning!

  26. Daniel
    December 12, 2012

    Atonement for Drama is the ultimate NGNG pick.

  27. casey
    December 12, 2012

    NGNG:

    Michelle Pfieffer – Dark Shadows
    Helena Bonham Carter – Les Mis
    Gina Gershon – Killer Joe
    John Goodman – Argo
    Matthew McConaghey/Shirley McClaine – Bernie
    Sascha Barron Cohen – The Dictator
    Macy Gray – The Paperboy

    I would DIE for one of these to happen

  28. Proman
    December 12, 2012

    James Cameron was in the running with Avatar. Terms “wrong” and “right” don’t apply when he was nominated.

  29. A
    December 12, 2012

    Lincoln is the easiest call in the Drama category as well as a likely and deserving winner. It is undeniable.

  30. Danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    If you’ve convinced yourself for even one second that Lincoln won’t be nominated for Best Drama, its time to step away from the Les Mis punch table. You’ve had too much.

  31. A
    December 12, 2012

    Man, Lincoln is such a rare and great film too. Yes, it is historical but explores history without exploiting it. It’s very focus and avoidance of Lincoln’s “greatest hits” is valuable. I felt that I got to know the characters and felt the period better than in most any “true” decade spanning biopic.

  32. kasper
    December 12, 2012

    My god, Lincoln is so in. More in than anything else really.

  33. Em
    December 12, 2012

    I will be happy with pretty much any nomination as long as they don’t nominate Kristen Stewart for On the Road. That would be too much for even the Globes I hope.

  34. JP
    December 12, 2012

    “I think The Impossible is a lock for Best Drama.
    I’m not 100% sold on Lincoln getting the nom for Best Drama. ”

    It seems Jeff Wells is not alone. Shall we Stop this Bleeding?! Last year we, the Spielberg fans, said that next year he was coming to get everything… be prepared… feb. 24 is coming faster and faster… pray for James Cameron’s guardian angel… If Les Mis doesn’t Titanicate at the Box Office many will share tissues with Jeff Wells.

  35. Adam
    December 12, 2012

    Why is everyone going nuts for Barbra Streisand in The Guilt Trip? Isn’t it being released next year? Has anyone seen it/screeners sent out?

  36. Zach
    December 12, 2012

    NGNG:
    Whitney Houston for Sparkle
    Ann Dowd for Compliance (I’m frowning)

    Ooh, I like the Johnny Depp Dark Shadows pick! It just isn’t his year, but that film was terribly underrated (compared to some Oscar-baity films which are overrated, as always happens, but I won’t name names). It’s not Depp’s best, but as usual, he is terrific, elevates the material, and does something most actors can’t do. I didn’t even think of predicting him.

  37. steve50
    December 12, 2012

    Heads up, kiddies. Following the the last sentence in usually-middle-of-the-road Lisa Schartzbaum’s EW review of Les Miserables:

    “And even if you do come to Mr. Hooper’s neighborhood loving the show, having seen seven stage productions and named your cat Gavroche after the urchin who hitches his fate to those of grown-up revolutionaries, well, you’re in for a gobsmacking: This ”prestige” production is at heart a minor road-show carnival, leaving behind little but tinsel as it rumbles through the streets of Awardstown. C”

    It will do well tomorrow, but I predict stormy weather ahead.

  38. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Wow, all I say is that I’m not 100% convinced Lincoln will get a nomination, but I include it in my nominations and still the pro-Lincoln crowd has issues.

  39. PaulH
    December 12, 2012

    Let’s trot out the Big Truth one more time. The HFPA got it right in 2009. End of discussion. They were the beacon of light in an ocean of darkness. They. Got. It. Right.

  40. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Oh, PaulH, you sound like a crazy street preacher. I almost want to give you some peanuts for some sustenance.

  41. PJ
    December 12, 2012

    NGNG This is Django’s coming out party

  42. kasper
    December 12, 2012

    Are we still on this whole Avatar is better movie than The Hurt Locker kick, PaulH? Seriously, it’s been 3 years!!

  43. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    I think…

    BEST PICTURE: DRAMA
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Zero Dark Thirty

    BEST PICTURE: MUSICAL/COMEDY
    The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    Les Misérables
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Ted

    BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    Richard Gere – Arbitrage
    Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
    Suraj Sharma – Life of Pi (NGNG)
    Denzel Washington – Flight

    BEST ACTOR: MUSICAL/COMEDY
    Jack Black – Bernie
    Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
    Tom Cruise – Rock of Ages
    Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
    Tommy Lee Jones – Hope Springs

    BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
    Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard – Rust & Bone
    Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
    Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
    Naomi Watts – The Impossible

    BEST ACTRESS: MUSICAL/COMEDY
    Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    Bette Midler – Parental Guidance (NGNG)
    Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
    Barbra Streisand – The Guild Trip

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
    Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
    Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
    Eddie Redmayne – Les Misérables

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams – The Master
    Samantha Barks – Les Misérables
    Sally Field – Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
    Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Ben Affleck – Argo
    Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
    Tom Hooper – Les Misérables
    Ang Lee – Life of Pi
    Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

    BEST SCREENPLAY
    Argo
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    Amour
    Barbara
    The Intouchables
    Lore
    Rust & Bone

    I did the other categories in the contest thingy, too. Somehow it gave me 6 Supporting Actor nominees with Albert Brooks as one, and THAT was not my intention.

  44. Jim
    December 12, 2012

    NGNG
    Julia Roberts for Mirror Mirror, Ezra Miller Best Supporting Actor

  45. Dave L
    December 12, 2012

    I loved Atonement, too. I’m predicting Hannah and Her Sisters as the alternate, though.

  46. Adam
    December 12, 2012

    @Dave L

    HAHA!

  47. Mike
    December 12, 2012

    I’m scared :P. I’m really hoping that The Perks of Being a Wallflower can get in here. Best shot would probably be Watson for Supporting Actress but I’m still doubtful :(.

  48. Sato
    December 12, 2012

    “I don’t know how Nicole Kidman manage to do this, but kudos to her! She went from having some buzz, completely silence (panned film), then getting award buzz again!”

    Well we all got surprised by SAG nomination for Kidman…. Her shot before that is definitely a NGNG for me… But hey, you can never put a great performance down eh?

  49. LSUduck
    December 12, 2012

    Y’all are getting my hopes up about Samantha Barks. I think yesterday was her shot. She was either going to make both the SAG and GG groups or neither of them. It wasn’t going to be one or the other.

    As a huge Sam fan, I will be pleasantly surprised if I am proven wrong tomorrow morning.

  50. December 12, 2012

    After SAG’s unbelievable snubs for Phoenix, Adams, The Master and Dowd, I’ m still shocked to an other NGNG.
    Anyway, good luck for The Perks and his cast and screenplay, for DiCaprio and for Streisand (anyway, they will have everithig next year for Gatsby and Gipsy/ Skinny & Cat).

    Oops… I include The Three Brionys. (Ronin, Garai and Redgrave) nominated as supporting. :D

  51. PaulH
    December 12, 2012
  52. Mike
    December 12, 2012

    Spot on about Cameron/Bigelow. It just felt wrong to see him up there. And it didn’t help that he said something like “I really have to take a piss”.

    I think we should watch out for Bill Murray, Julia Roberts (Mirror Mirror), and Channing Tatum (21 Jump Street).

    And on the television side, I would die laughing if Lindsay Lohan got in for Liz and Dick!

  53. DANIEL KENEALY
    December 13, 2012

    My predictions, under the wire:

    BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
    “Argo”
    “Django Unchained”
    “Hitchcock”
    “Lincoln”
    “Zero Dark Thirty”
    6th. “Anna Karenina”

    BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
    Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”)
    Jamie Foxx (“Django Unchained”)
    Anthony Hopkins (“Hitchcock”)
    Joaquin Pheonix (“The Master”)
    Denzel Washington (“Flight”)
    6th. Richard Gere (“Arbitrage”)

    BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
    Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
    Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”)
    Keira Knightley (“Anna Karenina”)
    Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock”)
    Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”)
    6th. Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)

    BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
    “Les Miserables”
    “Moonrise Kingdom”
    “Seven Psychopaths”
    “Silver Linings Playbook”
    6th. “Bernie”

    BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Jack Black (“Bernie”)
    Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
    Tom Cruise (“Rock of Ages”)
    Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”)
    Omar Sy (“The Intouchables”)
    6th. Mark Wahlberg (“Ted”)

    BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Judi Dench (“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”)
    Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
    Leslie Mann (“This is Forty”)
    Barbara Streisand (“The Guilt Trip”)
    Meryl Streep (“Hope Springs”)
    6th. Bette Middler (“Parental Guidance”)

    BEST DIRECTOR
    “Argo” (Ben Affleck)
    “Django Unchained” (Quentin Tarantino)
    “Les Miserables” (Tom Hooper)
    “Lincoln” (Steven Spielberg)
    “Zero Dark Thirty” (Kathryn Bigelow)
    6th. “Silver Linings Playbook” (David O. Russell)

    BEST SCREENPLAY
    “Argo”
    “Django Unchained”
    “Moonrise Kingdom”
    “Silver Linings Playbook”
    “Zero Dark Thirty”
    6th. “The Master”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”)
    Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”)
    Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”)
    Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”)
    6th. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Django Unchained”)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams (“The Master”)
    Sally Field (“Lincoln”)
    Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)
    Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”)
    Maggie Smith (“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”)
    6th. Samantha Barks (“Les Miserables”)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    “Anna Karenina”
    “Argo”
    “Cloud Atlas”
    “Life of Pi”
    “Lincoln”
    6th. “The Master”

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG
    “Brave” (Learn Me Right)
    “Lawless” (Cosmonaut)
    “Les Miserables” (Suddenly)
    “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
    “Snow White and the Huntsman” (Breathe of Life)
    6th. “Kate Perry: Part of Me in 3D” (Wide Awake)

    BEST ANIMATED FILM
    “Frankenweenie”
    “Hotel Transylvania”
    “ParaNorman”
    “Rise of the Guardians”
    “Wreck-it Ralph”
    6th. “Madagascar 3″

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    “Amour”
    “Barbara”
    “The Intouchables”
    “A Royal Affair”
    “Rust and Bone”
    6th. “Lore”

    So that means “Lincoln” leads with 6 noms …
    Then with 5-a-piece we have “Silver Linings”, “Django” and “Les Mis” …
    With 4 are “Argo” and “Zero” …
    Then 3 noms each for “Hitchcock”, “Marigold” and “The Master”.

  54. Tero Heikkinen
    December 13, 2012

    This could be interesting:

    What it comes to actually winning, FIVE films have won FIVE GG’s, no film has won 6. Lincoln actually stands a chance at 6, even 7 if three actors won and John Williams took home one. But… BUT… there’s ZDT to prevent this.

  55. Samka
    December 13, 2012

    Paramount already has a spot up on their YouTube channel touting Streisand as a Golden Globe nominee. So we know that one already.

  56. Tero Heikkinen
    December 13, 2012

    If that’s true… SON OF A!!!

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