The HFPA are announcing their nominees tomorrow. With all of the dates being pushed back this year, the Globes aren’t as early as they usually are so they might actually be more useful than they’ve been in the recent past. Although the HFPA takes a lot of crap for being bought and paid for by studios, and/or foreign journalists nobody can identify, the truth is that it doesn’t really matter in the end; their nominees and winners do matter. They have as much an impact on the race as any other major critics awards, and are the second most watched awards show after the Oscars. Winning a Globe gives you the world stage, and it ups your chances to win an Oscar significantly. Except when it doesn’t.
I’ll contend that after James Cameron won the Globe for Avatar it was an uncomfortable moment that eventually led to Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker’s victory. Sometimes wins can feel “wrong” as much as they can feel “right.” It just depends on how much gratitude the contender decides to show. It’s always a good thing, for instance, to turn on the waterworks. People who bestow awards like to feel like they’re doing a good deed. So the wrong reaction is entitlement. The right reaction is gratitude. Hey, you asked. Well, maybe you didn’t ask but I’m offering up this theory which probably has one foot in a big pile of bullshit and the other foot in the truth. I won’t tell you which is which.
I have posted my predictions over at Gold Derby but I will go over them now. Try to hide your excitement.
The question is what movie do well here. Many are assuming that movie with be Les Miserables. The Globes have traditionally embraced musicals and musicals with that much emotion appears to be up their street. We shall see tomorrow.
Best Picture, Drama
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
alts. Atonement, The Impossible
Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
This is 40
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt. Hyde park on Hudson
Best Actor, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
Alt: Ben Affleck, Argo
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Cruise, Rock of Ages
Jack Black, Bernie
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Alt: Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea
Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guild Trip
Bette Midler, Parental Guidance
Leslie Mann, This is 40
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
The rest you can check out over at Gold Derby. This is the last ugly morning until the Oscar nominations are announced.
Actor SAG | 2011 GLOBES | OSCAR |
Jean DuJardin, The Artist | Jean DuJardin, The Artist | Jean DuJardin, The Artist |
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar | Fassbender, Shame | Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
Demian Bichir, A Better Life | Demian Bichir, A Better Life | Demian Bichir, A Better Life |
George Clooney, The Descendants | George Clooney, The Descendants | George Clooney, The Descendants |
Brad Pitt, Moneyball | Brad Pitt, Moneyball | Brad Pitt, Moneyball |
Actress | 2011 | 2011 |
Viola Davis, The Help | Viola Davis, The Help | Viola Davis, The Help |
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady |
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin | Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin | Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo |
Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo | ||
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs |
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn | Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn | Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn |
Supporting Actor | 2011 | 2011 |
Christopher Plummer, Beginners | Christopher Plummer, Beginners | Christopher Plummer, Beginners |
Nick Nolte, Warrior | Albert Brooks, Drive | Nick Nolte, Warrior |
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn | Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn | Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn |
Jonah Hill, Moneyball | Jonah Hill, Moneyball | Jonah Hill, Moneyball |
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar | Viggo Mortensen, Dangerous Method | Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close |
Supporting Actress | 2011 | 2011 |
Octavia Spencer, The Help | Octavia Spencer, The Help | Octavia Spencer, The Help |
Jessica Chastain, The Help | Jessica Chastain, The Help | Jessica Chastain, The Help |
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist | Bérénice Bejo, The Artist | Bérénice Bejo, The Artist |
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs | Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs | Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs |
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids | Shailene Woodley, Descendants | Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | GLOBES | OSCAR |
The Help | The Help | The Help |
The Artist | The Artist | The Artist |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids | |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
The Descendants | The Descendants | The Descendants |
Hugo | Hugo | |
Moneyball | Moneyball | |
War Horse | War Horse | |
The Ides of March | ||
Actor | GLOBES | OSCAR |
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech | Colin Firth, The King’s Speech | Colin Firth, The King’s Speech |
Jeff Bridges, True Grit | Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter | Jeff Bridges, True Grit |
Robert Duvall, Get Low | Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine | Javier Bardem, Biutiful |
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network | Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network | Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network |
James Franco, 127 Hours | James Franco, 127 Hours | James Franco, 127 Hours |
Actress | GLOBES | OSCAR |
Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Natalie Portman, Black Swan |
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright | Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright | Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright |
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole | Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole | Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole |
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone | Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone | Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone |
Hillary Swank, Conviction | Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine | Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine |
Supporting Actor | GLOBES | OSCAR |
Christian Bale, The Fighter | Christian Bale, The Fighter | Christian Bale, The Fighter |
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone | Michael Douglas, Wall St 2 | John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone |
Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right | Andrew Garfield TSN | Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right |
Jeremy Renner, The Town | Jeremy Renner, The Town | Jeremy Renner, The Town |
Geoffrey Rush, TKS | Geoffrey Rush, TKS | Geoffrey Rush, TKS |
Supporting Actress | ||
Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Melissa Leo, The Fighter |
Amy Adams, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter |
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS | Helena Bonham Carter, TKS | Helena Bonham Carter, TKS |
Mila Kunis, Black Swan | Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom | Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom |
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit | Mila Kunis, Black Swan | Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | Globes | Oscar |
The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech |
The Fighter | The Fighter | The Fighter |
Black Swan | Black Swan | Black Swan |
The Kids Are Alright | The Kids Are Alright | The Kids Are Alright |
The Social Network | The Social Network | The Social Network |
Inception | Inception |
If that’s true… SON OF A!!!
Paramount already has a spot up on their YouTube channel touting Streisand as a Golden Globe nominee. So we know that one already.
This could be interesting:
What it comes to actually winning, FIVE films have won FIVE GG’s, no film has won 6. Lincoln actually stands a chance at 6, even 7 if three actors won and John Williams took home one. But… BUT… there’s ZDT to prevent this.
My predictions, under the wire:
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Hitchcock”
“Lincoln”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
6th. “Anna Karenina”
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”)
Jamie Foxx (“Django Unchained”)
Anthony Hopkins (“Hitchcock”)
Joaquin Pheonix (“The Master”)
Denzel Washington (“Flight”)
6th. Richard Gere (“Arbitrage”)
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”)
Keira Knightley (“Anna Karenina”)
Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock”)
Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”)
6th. Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)
BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“Les Miserables”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Seven Psychopaths”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
6th. “Bernie”
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Jack Black (“Bernie”)
Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
Tom Cruise (“Rock of Ages”)
Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”)
Omar Sy (“The Intouchables”)
6th. Mark Wahlberg (“Ted”)
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Judi Dench (“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
Leslie Mann (“This is Forty”)
Barbara Streisand (“The Guilt Trip”)
Meryl Streep (“Hope Springs”)
6th. Bette Middler (“Parental Guidance”)
BEST DIRECTOR
“Argo” (Ben Affleck)
“Django Unchained” (Quentin Tarantino)
“Les Miserables” (Tom Hooper)
“Lincoln” (Steven Spielberg)
“Zero Dark Thirty” (Kathryn Bigelow)
6th. “Silver Linings Playbook” (David O. Russell)
BEST SCREENPLAY
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
6th. “The Master”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”)
Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”)
Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”)
Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”)
6th. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Django Unchained”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (“The Master”)
Sally Field (“Lincoln”)
Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)
Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”)
Maggie Smith (“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”)
6th. Samantha Barks (“Les Miserables”)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Cloud Atlas”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
6th. “The Master”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Brave” (Learn Me Right)
“Lawless” (Cosmonaut)
“Les Miserables” (Suddenly)
“Skyfall” (Skyfall)
“Snow White and the Huntsman” (Breathe of Life)
6th. “Kate Perry: Part of Me in 3D” (Wide Awake)
BEST ANIMATED FILM
“Frankenweenie”
“Hotel Transylvania”
“ParaNorman”
“Rise of the Guardians”
“Wreck-it Ralph”
6th. “Madagascar 3”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Amour”
“Barbara”
“The Intouchables”
“A Royal Affair”
“Rust and Bone”
6th. “Lore”
So that means “Lincoln” leads with 6 noms …
Then with 5-a-piece we have “Silver Linings”, “Django” and “Les Mis” …
With 4 are “Argo” and “Zero” …
Then 3 noms each for “Hitchcock”, “Marigold” and “The Master”.
Spot on about Cameron/Bigelow. It just felt wrong to see him up there. And it didn’t help that he said something like “I really have to take a piss”.
I think we should watch out for Bill Murray, Julia Roberts (Mirror Mirror), and Channing Tatum (21 Jump Street).
And on the television side, I would die laughing if Lindsay Lohan got in for Liz and Dick!
Offtopic: Pacific Rim trailer from Guillermo del Toro. Looks epic:
http://screeninvasion.com/2012/12/watch-guillermo-del-toros-pacific-rim-finally-has-a-trailer/?utm_source=dlvr.it
After SAG’s unbelievable snubs for Phoenix, Adams, The Master and Dowd, I’ m still shocked to an other NGNG.
Anyway, good luck for The Perks and his cast and screenplay, for DiCaprio and for Streisand (anyway, they will have everithig next year for Gatsby and Gipsy/ Skinny & Cat).
Oops… I include The Three Brionys. (Ronin, Garai and Redgrave) nominated as supporting. 😀
Y’all are getting my hopes up about Samantha Barks. I think yesterday was her shot. She was either going to make both the SAG and GG groups or neither of them. It wasn’t going to be one or the other.
As a huge Sam fan, I will be pleasantly surprised if I am proven wrong tomorrow morning.
“I don’t know how Nicole Kidman manage to do this, but kudos to her! She went from having some buzz, completely silence (panned film), then getting award buzz again!”
Well we all got surprised by SAG nomination for Kidman…. Her shot before that is definitely a NGNG for me… But hey, you can never put a great performance down eh?
I’m scared :P. I’m really hoping that The Perks of Being a Wallflower can get in here. Best shot would probably be Watson for Supporting Actress but I’m still doubtful :(.
@Dave L
HAHA!
I loved Atonement, too. I’m predicting Hannah and Her Sisters as the alternate, though.
NGNG
Julia Roberts for Mirror Mirror, Ezra Miller Best Supporting Actor
I think…
BEST PICTURE: DRAMA
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST PICTURE: MUSICAL/COMEDY
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Ted
BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Suraj Sharma – Life of Pi (NGNG)
Denzel Washington – Flight
BEST ACTOR: MUSICAL/COMEDY
Jack Black – Bernie
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Cruise – Rock of Ages
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Tommy Lee Jones – Hope Springs
BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust & Bone
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
BEST ACTRESS: MUSICAL/COMEDY
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Bette Midler – Parental Guidance (NGNG)
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand – The Guild Trip
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
Eddie Redmayne – Les Misérables
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Master
Samantha Barks – Les Misérables
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy
BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper – Les Misérables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
BEST SCREENPLAY
Argo
Lincoln
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour
Barbara
The Intouchables
Lore
Rust & Bone
I did the other categories in the contest thingy, too. Somehow it gave me 6 Supporting Actor nominees with Albert Brooks as one, and THAT was not my intention.
Are we still on this whole Avatar is better movie than The Hurt Locker kick, PaulH? Seriously, it’s been 3 years!!
NGNG This is Django’s coming out party
Oh, PaulH, you sound like a crazy street preacher. I almost want to give you some peanuts for some sustenance.
Let’s trot out the Big Truth one more time. The HFPA got it right in 2009. End of discussion. They were the beacon of light in an ocean of darkness. They. Got. It. Right.
Wow, all I say is that I’m not 100% convinced Lincoln will get a nomination, but I include it in my nominations and still the pro-Lincoln crowd has issues.
Heads up, kiddies. Following the the last sentence in usually-middle-of-the-road Lisa Schartzbaum’s EW review of Les Miserables:
“And even if you do come to Mr. Hooper’s neighborhood loving the show, having seen seven stage productions and named your cat Gavroche after the urchin who hitches his fate to those of grown-up revolutionaries, well, you’re in for a gobsmacking: This ”prestige” production is at heart a minor road-show carnival, leaving behind little but tinsel as it rumbles through the streets of Awardstown. C”
It will do well tomorrow, but I predict stormy weather ahead.
NGNG:
Whitney Houston for Sparkle
Ann Dowd for Compliance (I’m frowning)
Ooh, I like the Johnny Depp Dark Shadows pick! It just isn’t his year, but that film was terribly underrated (compared to some Oscar-baity films which are overrated, as always happens, but I won’t name names). It’s not Depp’s best, but as usual, he is terrific, elevates the material, and does something most actors can’t do. I didn’t even think of predicting him.
Why is everyone going nuts for Barbra Streisand in The Guilt Trip? Isn’t it being released next year? Has anyone seen it/screeners sent out?
“I think The Impossible is a lock for Best Drama.
I’m not 100% sold on Lincoln getting the nom for Best Drama. ”
It seems Jeff Wells is not alone. Shall we Stop this Bleeding?! Last year we, the Spielberg fans, said that next year he was coming to get everything… be prepared… feb. 24 is coming faster and faster… pray for James Cameron’s guardian angel… If Les Mis doesn’t Titanicate at the Box Office many will share tissues with Jeff Wells.
I will be happy with pretty much any nomination as long as they don’t nominate Kristen Stewart for On the Road. That would be too much for even the Globes I hope.
My god, Lincoln is so in. More in than anything else really.
Man, Lincoln is such a rare and great film too. Yes, it is historical but explores history without exploiting it. It’s very focus and avoidance of Lincoln’s “greatest hits” is valuable. I felt that I got to know the characters and felt the period better than in most any “true” decade spanning biopic.
If you’ve convinced yourself for even one second that Lincoln won’t be nominated for Best Drama, its time to step away from the Les Mis punch table. You’ve had too much.
Lincoln is the easiest call in the Drama category as well as a likely and deserving winner. It is undeniable.
James Cameron was in the running with Avatar. Terms “wrong” and “right” don’t apply when he was nominated.
NGNG:
Michelle Pfieffer – Dark Shadows
Helena Bonham Carter – Les Mis
Gina Gershon – Killer Joe
John Goodman – Argo
Matthew McConaghey/Shirley McClaine – Bernie
Sascha Barron Cohen – The Dictator
Macy Gray – The Paperboy
I would DIE for one of these to happen
Atonement for Drama is the ultimate NGNG pick.
Marion Cotillard deserves the Golden Globe Actress Drama and Oscar nomination or winning!
NO GUTS NO GLORY
JOHNNY DEPP for BEST ACTOR in DARK SHADOWS!!!!!!
One more NGNG — Jennifer Garner, Best Actress in a Comedy for “Butter.” It’s a Weinstein movie, plus with Ben Affleck nominated for director and maybe actor for “Argo,” they can have their Hollywood power couple attend, even without Pitt and Jolie.
NGNG Golden Globes — Aubrey Plaza, best actress in a comedy, “Safety Not Guaranteed,” either Judi Dench or Javier Bardem in supporting for “Skyfall” and “Amour” for Best Picture, Drama.
Yes, it probably will. That’s why I included it in my predictions. But if it doesn’t, my draw won’t be dropping. I see the other four as really strong pics, though and I see Lincoln as being the most vulnerable of the five. Lucky for Lincoln, there’s not a real strong #6 unless you want to count Django Unchained.
I’m not 100% sold on Lincoln getting the nom for Best Drama.
If it were up to you Lincoln would be shut out of the entire awards race. In the real world however it is getting nominated for Best Drama, you can bet on it.
Oops, I was stupid, take away Emanuelle Riva and add Rachel Weisz in the number 5 slot.
I think The Impossible is a lock for Best Drama.
I’m not 100% sold on Lincoln getting the nom for Best Drama. It’s such an historically based film, and it doesn’t explain very much along the way, that I’m wondering if non-Americans will enjoy it in the same way many Americans have. Something tells me that if it gets a nom it will be because the voters know they are supposed to support it rather than wanting to support it.
I think Rachel Weisz and Helen Mirren will both get nominated. They are English and a good portion of the HFPA is English and both are credible nominees.
I think Beasts of the Southern Wild is out. I think it is this year’s Drive in that it’s a critical success but not in these, let’s face it, mildly stupid awards organizations. Plus, there’s no big stars in it.
Best Drama
1) Zero Dark Thirty
2) Argo
3) The Impossible
4) Life of Pi
5) Lincoln
Best Other
1) Les Miz
2) Silver Linings Playbook
3) Moonrise Kingdom
4) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
5) The Sessions (not sure if it’s a comedy, but the trailer sure wants us to think so)
Best Actor Drama
1) Daniel Day-Lewis
2) Joachin Phoenix
3) Anthony Hopkins
4) Denzel Washington
5) Ben Affleck
Best Actor Other
1) Hugh Jackman
2) Bradley Cooper
3) John Hawkes
4) Mark Wahlberg
5) Tommy Lee Jones
Best Actress
1) Jessica Chastain
2) Naomi Watts
3) Helen Mirren
4) Marion Cotillard
5) Emanuelle Riva
Best Actress Other
1) Jennifer Lawrence
2) Helen Hunt
3) Judi Dench (Isn’t she a lead in Exotic?)
4) Meryl Streep
5) Barbra Streisand
Best DIrector
1) Tom Hooper
2) Ben Affleck
3) Kathryn Bigelow
4) Ang Lee
5) David O’Russell
(And this was my NGNG pick – excluding Spielberg)
Best Male Support
1) Robert DeNiro
2) Tommy Lee Jones
3) Russell Crowe
4) Eddie Redmayne
5) Javier Bardem
Best Female Support
1) Anne Hathaway
2) Samantha Barks
3) Sally Field
4) Judi Dench
5) Maggie Smith
D-J-A-N-G-O – The D is not silent.
Django will walk away with the most noms tomorrow.
I read this really interesting article from the Guardian that shed light on the reasons why The Master was snubbed by the SAGS. The author suggests that Phoenix’s past comments may have played a part in his snub, but that it’s highly unlikely. Amy Adams, who is beloved by the Guild, was not nominated either. That in itself speaks more to how the film was generally received than Joaquin Phoenix’s comments.
The author also suggests that the reason Joaquin Phoenix may have been snubbed was because the actors were uncomfortable with the performance – that it bordered on being “exploitative” in it’s possible depiction of a real damaged soul. According to the author, Phoenix’s performance is the kind that makes people wonder “how much of this is acting and how much is he going through a breakdown?”
I think that’s a really interesting way of looking at it. The argument may not hold any weight (after all, they probably just hated the film) but it does make you wonder how they consider the nominations.
The author goes on to state that there’s a good chance Phoenix (and Adams) will receive Oscar nominations since, with ballots being mailed in less than a week, actors will feel compelled to stand up for his performance even more.
We’ll see what happens. I hope Phoenix gets nominated but you never know… You can find the article here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2012/dec/12/sag-awards-snub-joaquin-phoenix?CMP=twt_fd
In any case, he should be nominated tomorrow and that will make me happy:) If Richard Gere makes it through, I’ll be ecstatic!
Here are my differences from Sasha’s:
I have The Master instead of Beasts of the Southern Wild.
I have Quartet instead of This is 40
Ben Affleck & John Hawkes instead of Richard Gere & Brad Pitt
Bill Murray instead of Tom Cruise
Emmanuelle Riva & Helen Mirren instead of Quvenzhane Wallis & Keira Knightley
Judi Dench & Maggie Smith instead of Leslie Mann & Bette Middler
Leonardo DiCaprio instead of Christoph Waltz
Maggie Smith instead of Nicole Kidman
Ang Lee instead of David O. Russell
But for the most part I am not confident of these differences (except for Actor Drama, maybe)
You’re kicking John Hawkes to the curb for Richard Gere and Brad Pitt? Whoa. That IS an unlikelihood.
I’m a little surprised the Rachel Weisz is your alternate on Actress and Emmanuelle Riva is MIA. Weisz got one split vote in NY. Amour is getting much more scattered support. I think Riva is in this thing and will probably bump out Knightley.
Glad you *don’t* have Alan Arkin (for reasons I made clear on the other thread), but I’m skeptical on Waltz. If they go Django, they go DiCaprio. Orgo f themselves.
Best Supporting Actress – sure. Kidman is shaky, but she’s as good a guess as any.
These Best Director nods will be fascinating. Whoever is not Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg, or Hooper – whoever gets the fifth slot – just got a HUGE inside lane to a nomination. Russell is as good a bet as there is, but Lee, Tarantino, even Zeitlin, wouldn’t be shocks.
Oh, god – this morning SAG, tomorrow the Globes. I’ll be sure to put my coffee in a sippy cup, something I didn’t do this morning – big mistake. Still cleaning my keyboard.
I expect that there will be no major surprises, except for the annual “Pia Zadora WTF” nomination, which actually make the Globes kind of fun. They also often spot the overlooked and put them back in the limelight.
I’m guessing they don’t go all Django (unless Harvey got the entire HFP laid recently). Pi, The Master, and Beasts have the most to lose and all three need this nomination or the awards trek is over for them. ZDT, Lincoln, and Argo are sure bets.
It won’t matter what else they put against Les Miserables and SLP because they have no prayer whatsoever.
Same for Supporting Actress – the race is between Mary Todd and Cat-erwauling-Woman. (C’mon, you knew it was coming)
Best Supporting Actor – it will probably appear as though they used a giant wheel with names on it. Nobody is a lock and nobosy will surprise, that’s how wdie open I think it is.
Best Actor – they remembered Fassbender last year, so Phoenix is assured a spot. Maybe they’ll surprise with someone like Denis Lavant?
Best Actress – a MINIMUM of two French-speaking ladies, please.
A few things worth considering:
– They love their stars. Nobody would watch the Golden Globes if they didn’t have a red carpet packed full of A-listers, because they lack the prestige of the Oscars. That’s why I think your call for Brad Pitt, Sasha, is a smart one, although it’d be more likely to come true were Killing Them Softly not bombing hard at the box office. The Tom Cruise call is smart too, and they love Nicole Kidman, so she’s sure to get in (particularly what with her SAG nomination today).
– They’re not as staid as you might think. Their reputation isn’t great for picking outside-the-box contenders, but this reputation is false. Every year, there’s at least one WTF moment from the Globes. Sometimes, it’s a WTF moment for the wrong reasons, if the film is shit (The Tourist in ’10) or the nominee ousted a much better contender (Will Ferrell over Jake Gyllenhaal in ’05). But sometimes, they pick a surprise gem, like Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom, or Sally Hawkins beating four better-known actresses in ’08. Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, Ann Dowd – all would be unconventional choices for a big-time association like the HFPA, but all have a good shot at getting in.
– They love giving their musicals and comedies loads of nominations. They like to sneak directors and actors from the films nominated for Musical/Comedy-only categories into other categories. It helps give the category divisions some credibility. Every year, it’s clear that the Drama categories are much stronger (to the extent that the press regularly reports the Best Picture – Drama category as simply Best Picture), yet contenders from dramas miss out on nominations, which will go to musicals and comedies. It strengthens the Musical/Comedy categories.
– They love foreign / international productions. It’s the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after all. This makes me expect to see both Marion Cotillard and Emmanuelle Riva in for Best Actress, and to see Life of Pi show up in four categories (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Score), maybe five (Song), and The Impossible to potentially do very well too.
#longestcommentever
Look for Ang Lee nominated for Best Director.
I don’t see a scenario in which Ted doesn’t get nominated for Best Musical / Comedy.
Also, last year they went hard for The Ides of March (on the Clooney factor, of course). That film was dead and nearly buried by that stage, and it went on to be embraced also by the PGA, and then receive an Oscar nomination for its screenplay. They might do something similar this year, and revive a film we had all ruled out. Maybe Anna Karenina? Or something unproven like The Impossible (they like international productions, being the Hollywood Foreign Press Association)? Even Flight?
I hate this group and their Awards Show. It’s been absurd from Day One.
I like the predictions Sasha. Some really bold pics.
Below are mine – with my changes to yours in all Caps. I have this crazy feeling in some categories – I could be wrong and they mostly could be NGNG. We shall see tomorrow!! (its the most wonderful time of year!)
Best Picture, Drama
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
DJANGO UNCHAINED
Beasts of the Southern Wild
I think globes will be the first burst for Django
Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
This is 40
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
we agree 100%
Best Actor, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
ANTHONY HOPKINS – Hitchcock
I agree they would want Brad and Angie there – but I feel Hitchcock is very Globey.
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
SETH ROGAN – The Guilt Trip
Jack Black, Bernie
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
I just cannot get on board with the cruise nom in lead. But who knows, stranger things have happened.
Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
EMMANUEL RIVA – Amour
I think Globes will be Riva’s breakthrough in larger scale noms. (at least I am hoping)
Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
KRISTIN WIIG – Imogen
Leslie Mann, This is 40
* Taking a HUGE chance on this one. I feel like no one has seen or heard of this movie. And it is more of a drama than a comedy for sure – but the globes love to nominate Wiig – and I think she may be the big surprise.
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO – Django Unchained
EDDIE REDMAYNE – Les Miserables
I think they cannot resist DiCaprio. And I predict huge love for les mis, and Eddie Redmayne is looking to be the next in line for attention
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
ANN DOWD – Compliance
SAMANTHA BARKS – Les Miserables
I think the Kidman support is too late – and SAG is the big surprise (although a great one). I think Dowd will get in, because shes that good. And Barks picks up on the love from Les Mis.
Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
QUENTIN TARANTINO – Django Unchained
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
They want Quentin there.
Atonement?? do u mean Anna Karenina?
Where is The Exotic Marigold Hotel?
Best Picture in Comedy or Musical
Best Actress in Comedy or Musical, Judi Dench
Best Supporting Actress, Maggie Smiths
maybe Best Actor in Comedy or Musical, Bill Nighy
Django Unchained will replace Beasts of the Southern Wild
Anthony Hopkins gets in Best Actor Drama
Alan Arkin in Best Supporting Actor
I fucking LOVE Atonement…
I bet Anna Kendrick gets in for Pitch Perfect.
I don’t know how Nicole Kidman manage to do this, but kudos to her! She went from having some buzz, completely silence (panned film), then getting award buzz again!
Atonement is a contender this year too? Damn, Redgrave for the oscar!
Atonement as a BP Drama alternate?