Los Angeles Film Critics Preview and Predictions Contest

This Sunday, the Los Angeles Film Critics will announce their awards. LA has been known to occasionally step out of the zone – they chose The Descendants last year, There Will Be Blood the year No Country was sweeping. It is nonetheless assumed that their winner will still be Zero Dark Thirty. The only possible upset, I figure, will be The Master. One of their members, and writer of the Gold Standard, Glenn Whipp, said on Twitter that he didn’t think the LA critics were going to go for Zero Dark Thirty.

ENTER OUR CONTEST!

What our Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has to say about them:

Here are some stats and trends that may help in predicting the LAFCAs. On average, a LAFCA Best Film winner wins 3 awards total, compared to an average of 2 total at the NYFCC and the NBR. This is due to a a number of factors: Film and Screenplay are more likely to match at LAFCA (44%) than either NYFCC or the NBR (18% and 33%, respectively); Best Film gets both Director and Screenplay 3.5 times as often than at the NYFCC and the NBR. LAFCA also has additional tech awards (cinematography, production design and original score). At LAFCA, the Best Film winner gets Director 60% of the time, an acting award 51% of the time, and a tech award 27% of the time.

Regarding BP, NYFCC and NBR have matched 10 times during the lifespan of the LAFCA. LAFCA has gone along with its East Coast peers only three times (Schindler’s List, L.A. Confidential, and The Social Network). Of the 7 times LAFCA went a different route with BP, the LAFCA prevailed over NYFCC + NBR at the Oscars three times, all three occurring within the first 10 years of LAFCA’s existence. Since then, however, the coastal divergence has gone in favor of the NYFCC + NBR combo. It must be noted that a film that wins at least two of the LAFCA, NYFCC, and NBR is very likely (90+%) to be Oscar nominated; in fact, the only film to have not done so is Leaving Las Vegas.

The coastal comparison in Director is a bit more hazy. NYFCC and NBR have coincided 12 times in this category since LAFCA was created. LAFCA has gone along with them 5 times; in the 7 cases LAFCA dissented, only once did the LAFCA winner come out on top at the Oscars (Milos Forman over David Lean in 1984). NYFCC + NBR prevailed twice (Jonathan Demme in 1991, The Coens in 2007), and in the other 4 cases an entirely different director won (usually the DGA winner except in 1995, when Mel Gibson won for Braveheart). Like with BP, any director who wins at least two of the three groups is extremely likely (95%) to be Oscar nominated; the only anomaly occurred in 1995 (again!!), when Ang Lee won both the NBR and NYFCC but was inexplicably left off the Best Director lineup at the Oscars.

Sometimes when Picture and Director split, the director goes on to win Best Picture too, like Peter Jackson for Return of the King. Also worth noting, Kathryn Bigelow won Picture and Director from New York and Los Angeles before going on to win the Oscar too.

New York has a much better track record for predicting Best Picture, with 7 matches since 2000, whereas LA has only four.  Though in fairness, matching with Oscar does not appear to be the LA Film Critics’ goal.

My predictions for LAFCA (we’ll do a more thorough list before Sunday):

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor: Matthew McCoughaughey
Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Cinematography: (something completely obscure or) The Master
Production Design: The Master
Score: The Master
Animation: Frankenweenie

The Chart

LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture

2010 Zero Dark Thirty
2010 The Descendants The Artist The Artist
2010 The Social Network* The Social Network* The King’s Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Wall-E Milk* Slumdog Millionaire
2007 There Will Be Blood* No Country for Old Men+ No Country
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima* United 93  The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain* Brokeback Mountain* Crash
2004 Sideways* Sideways* Million Dollar Baby
2003 American Splendour Return of the King Return of the King
2002 About Schmidt Far From Heaven Chicago
2001 In the Bedroom* Mulholland Drive A Beautiful Mind
2000 Crouching Tiger* Traffic* Gladiator
1999 The Insider* Topsy-Turvy American Beauty
1998 Saving Private Ryan* Saving Private Ryan* Shakespeare in Love
1997 L.A. Confidential* L.A. Confidential* Titanic
1996 Secrets & Lies* Fargo* The English Patient
1995 Leaving Las Vegas Leaving Las Vegas Braveheart
1994 Pulp Fiction* Quiz Show* Forrest Gump
1993 Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List
1992 Unforgiven+ The Player Unforgiven
1991 Bugsy* The Silence of the Lambs+ Silence of the Lambs
1990 Goodfellas* Goodfellas* Dances With Wolves
1989 Do the Right Thing My Left Foot* Driving Miss Daisy
1988 Little Dorrit The Accidental Tourist* Rain Man
1987 Hope and Glory* Broadcast News* The Last Emperor
1986 Hannah and Her Sisters* Hannah and Her Sisters* Platoon
1985 Brazil Prizzi’s Honor* Out of Africa
1984 Amadeus+ Passage to India* Amadeus
1983 Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment
1982 E.T.* Gandhi+ Gandhi
1981 Atlantic City* Reds* Chariots of Fire
1980 Raging Bull* Ordinary People+ Ordinary People
1979 Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer
1978 Coming Home* The Deer Hunter+ The Deer Hunter
1977 Star Wars* Annie Hall+ Annie Hall
1976 Network* All the President’s Men* Rocky
1975 Dog Day Afternoon* Nashville* One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest
1974 Armacord Godfather II
1973 La Nuit Américaine The Sting
1972 Viskningar och rop The Godfather
1971 A Clockwork Orange* The French Connection
1970 Five Easy Pieces* Patton
1969 Z* Midnight Cowboy
1968 Lion in Winter* Oliver
1967 In the Heat of the Night+ In the Heat of the Night
1966 A Man for All Seasons* A Man for all Seasons
1965 Darling* the Sound of Music
1964 My Fair Lady+ My Fair Lady
1963 Tom Jones+ Tom Jones
1962 none Lawrence of Arabia
1961 West Side Story+ West Side Story
1960 The Apartment+ Billy Wilder, The Apartment
1959 Ben Hur+ Ben Hur
1958 THe Defiant Ones* Gigi
1957 Bridge on the River Kwai+ Bridge on the River Kwai
1956 Around the World in 80 Days+ Around/World in 80 Days
1955 Marty+ Delbert Mann, Marty
1954 On the Waterfront+ Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront
1953 From Here to Eternity+ From Here to Eternity
1952 High Noon* The Greatest Show on Earth
1951 Streetcar Named Desire* An American in Paris
1950 All About Eve+ All About Eve

Here are the members:

The LAFCA members:

STEPHEN FARBER, PRESIDENT
TIM GRIERSON, VICE PRESIDENT
JUSTIN CHANG, SECRETARY
ALONSO DURALDE, TREASURER

ROBERT ABELE
LEONARD KLADY
JOHN POWERS
DAVID ANSEN
ANDY KLEIN
CLAUDIA PUIG
ANDREW BARKER
ROBERT KOEHLER
PETER RAINER
CHARLES CHAMPLIN
CHRISTY LEMIRE
MICHAEL RECHTSHAFFEN
JUSTIN CHANG
EMANUEL LEVY
HARRIET ROBBINS
PETER DEBRUGE
SHERI LINDEN
JAMES ROCCHI
ALONSO DURALDE
LAEL LOEWENSTEIN
BETSY SHARKEY
DAVID EHRENSTEIN
KARINA LONGWORTH
RICHARD SCHICKEL
ANNLEE ELLINGSON
JUSTIN LOWE
HENRY SHEEHAN
STEPHEN FARBER
WADE MAJOR
BRENT SIMON
F.X. FEENEY
LEONARD MALTIN
CHARLES SOLOMON
SCOTT FOUNDAS
WILLARD MANUS
BOB STRAUSS
TODD GILCHRIST
TODD MCCARTHY
ELLA TAYLOR
MIKE GOODRIDGE
MYRON MEISEL
KEVIN THOMAS
JAMES GREENBERG
JOE MORGENSTERN
LUKE Y. THOMPSON
RAY GREENE
AMY NICHOLSON
KENNETH TURAN
TIM GRIERSON
MARK OLSEN
GLENN WHIPP
KIRK HONEYCUTT
JEAN OPPENHEIMER
CHUCK WILSON
MARK KEIZER
HJ PARK
ALYNDA WHEAT

Awards Daily’s 14th Annual Predict the Golden Globes Contest!

Next Story »

Los Angeles Film Critics No Guts, No Glory

20 Comments

  1. Gautam
    December 6, 2012

    Sasha, Best Actress Field is missing from the Prediction form.

  2. Ian
    December 6, 2012

    You can’t pick Actress

  3. Miguel
    December 6, 2012

    I feel like it will be Denzel Washinton’s first win.

  4. PJ
    December 6, 2012

    I am going crazy with LAFC. Lots of Masters and Amours mentions.

  5. PaulH
    December 6, 2012

    This will be Revenge of the Foreign Language Movies (Amour, specifically).

    Also, teaser trailer released today for Star Trek: Into Darkness (May 13, 2013)
    http://youtu.be/9jFZOicwtBw (USA)
    http://youtu.be/BrHlQUXFzfw (Japan, with more at the end…)

    Nine minutes of STID will precede IMAX-only screenings of The Hobbit next weekend.

  6. Yvette
    December 6, 2012

    I like Sasha’s list.
    Love for MM, Sally (two great comeback stories to root for)and ZD30 and Lincoln.
    My heart will be full.

  7. Kelly Garrett
    December 6, 2012

    Don’t count out Argo here. Hollywood saving a bunch of Americans hiding out in Iran is soooo L.A.

  8. Eric S.
    December 6, 2012

    And remember, whoever wins Best Director from LAFCA gets a Best Director nom from the Academy. It’s happened every year since Spike Lee won for Do the Right Thing.

  9. keifer
    December 6, 2012

    I love LAFC awards. At the very least, they are unperdictable and embracing. I remember when they chose in 1985 “BraziL” (for all you youngsters out there . .. it was probably the BEST picture of that year that went unnoticed by AMPAS.

    So, here is an old movie picture’s predilection of LAFC this year.

    Best Picture: Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

    Best Actress: Maggie Smith – Quartet

    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

    Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Wilton – The Best Exotic Mirigol Hotel

    Best Director – Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Screenplay – Moonrise Kingdom

    If any out-at-the-front organization is going to recognize Moonrise Kingdom, it is going to be LAFC.

    Ah, well. I can dream, can’t I?

  10. December 7, 2012

    This will be Revenge of the Foreign Language Movies

    Perhaps not. Wait for NSFC. You can usually be quite sure of that.

  11. bob w
    December 7, 2012

    Hmm I don’t know… Only 4 times ever have NYFCC, LAFCA, and NBR agreed on Best Pic– 2 times they predicted the Oscar and 2 times they did not. More troubling, it was the two most recent times that they did not agree. I still think if the hype about ZD30 is real, then it will NOT win LAFCA.

    He’s wrong about his stat on the 7 times that LAFCA differed from the NYFCC+NBR consensus– only ONCE (Amadeus) was the LAFCA choice the Oscar winner for Best Pic. The other 6 times the winner was something else entirely.

    What it means is that if ZD30 wins LA as well, it would most likely suggest it WON’T win the Oscar (like Social Network), although it technically has a 50% chance based just off of precedent. If it does NOT win LA, the precedent is a 57% chance that ZD30 will win the Oscar, 14% chance that the LA choice will win, and a 29% chance that a 3rd option will win.

  12. Marshall Flores
    December 7, 2012

    “He’s wrong about his stat on the 7 times that LAFCA differed from the NYFCC+NBR consensus– only ONCE (Amadeus) was the LAFCA choice the Oscar winner for Best Pic. The other 6 times the winner was something else entirely.”

    In 1975, NYFCC + NBR went for Nashville, LAFCA went for One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (and Dog Day Afternoon). Yes it was a tie, but for all intents and purposes, Oscar matched with LAFCA over the east coast pick. Same thing in 1976, when LAFCA went with Rocky (and Network) while NYFCC + NBR went for All the President’s Men. So I stand by my assessment.

  13. bob w
    December 7, 2012

    I stand (somewhat) corrected– I missed the ties in those years. However, since those were 75 and 76, it lessens their impact some (as does the fact that they were ties).

  14. Marshall Flores
    December 7, 2012

    “However, since those were 75 and 76, it lessens their impact some (as does the fact that they were ties).”

    Which I specifically addressed by mentioning that the three times the LAFCA winner prevailed at the Oscars over NBR + NYFCC, all occurred within the first 10 years of LAFCA’s existence. Since then (1984), the NBR + NYFCC choice has won out if there is a coastal divergence.

    I’m not assigning any predictive power or anything to this: I’m just stating the historical stats and trends. Take of them what you will. And don’t you tell me of my business again.

  15. lane
    December 7, 2012

    wow, love seeing LAFCA’s past winners, i agree with them most. Wall-E, In the Bedroom, Pulp Fiction, Do the Right Thing, Network, ET, Star Wars, and Raging Bull serving as the stand outs in ‘best of the year’ justice.

  16. bob w
    December 7, 2012

    Marshall, it’s not personal. People are allowed to, and should question, other people if they think they’ve made a mistake. No one’s infallible. And I wasn’t even trying to argue against any of your conclusions, I just thought you had a fact wrong.

  17. Jerry
    December 7, 2012

    Sticking with Life of Pi for LAFCA and Riva for Best actress.

  18. ChrisFlick
    December 7, 2012

    Since this is often a reaction to the more prestigious New York Film Critics Award, unless there is a genuiune critical concensus across the board you can predict that LAFC will choose a different picture. Historically they will award an Actress from a foreign film, or one from an English language film but of whom you have not really heard. Then there will be the local-boy-makes-good nod in either Lead or Supporting Actor, or both. Supporting Actress will be an interesting but not-out-of-left-field choice.

  19. December 7, 2012

    film:dark zero thirty;actor:daniel day-lewis-linccoln;actress:jessica chastain-dark zero thirty;s. actor: matthew mcconaughey-magic mike;s.actress:anne hathaway-les miserables;director:kathyrn bigelow-zero dark thirty;screenplay:tony kuschner-lincoln;animated:frankenweenie;foreign:amour;documentary:central park five.

  20. February 18, 2014

    Buut few, if any libertarians advocate complete emancipation from any of these; they simply want the
    freedom to choose how, when, and if to adhere tto them. A hig passs rte is indicative of an excellent
    classroom theory program coupled with extensive test preparation.

    To save money and achieve the same ressults Peralta suggests buying based on
    active ingredients, buying from companies that utilize FDA audited labs and buying
    direct online.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *