This Sunday, the Los Angeles Film Critics will announce their awards. LA has been known to occasionally step out of the zone – they chose The Descendants last year, There Will Be Blood the year No Country was sweeping. It is nonetheless assumed that their winner will still be Zero Dark Thirty. The only possible upset, I figure, will be The Master. One of their members, and writer of the Gold Standard, Glenn Whipp, said on Twitter that he didn’t think the LA critics were going to go for Zero Dark Thirty.
What our Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has to say about them:
Here are some stats and trends that may help in predicting the LAFCAs. On average, a LAFCA Best Film winner wins 3 awards total, compared to an average of 2 total at the NYFCC and the NBR. This is due to a a number of factors: Film and Screenplay are more likely to match at LAFCA (44%) than either NYFCC or the NBR (18% and 33%, respectively); Best Film gets both Director and Screenplay 3.5 times as often than at the NYFCC and the NBR. LAFCA also has additional tech awards (cinematography, production design and original score). At LAFCA, the Best Film winner gets Director 60% of the time, an acting award 51% of the time, and a tech award 27% of the time.
Regarding BP, NYFCC and NBR have matched 10 times during the lifespan of the LAFCA. LAFCA has gone along with its East Coast peers only three times (Schindler’s List, L.A. Confidential, and The Social Network). Of the 7 times LAFCA went a different route with BP, the LAFCA prevailed over NYFCC + NBR at the Oscars three times, all three occurring within the first 10 years of LAFCA’s existence. Since then, however, the coastal divergence has gone in favor of the NYFCC + NBR combo. It must be noted that a film that wins at least two of the LAFCA, NYFCC, and NBR is very likely (90+%) to be Oscar nominated; in fact, the only film to have not done so is Leaving Las Vegas.
The coastal comparison in Director is a bit more hazy. NYFCC and NBR have coincided 12 times in this category since LAFCA was created. LAFCA has gone along with them 5 times; in the 7 cases LAFCA dissented, only once did the LAFCA winner come out on top at the Oscars (Milos Forman over David Lean in 1984). NYFCC + NBR prevailed twice (Jonathan Demme in 1991, The Coens in 2007), and in the other 4 cases an entirely different director won (usually the DGA winner except in 1995, when Mel Gibson won for Braveheart). Like with BP, any director who wins at least two of the three groups is extremely likely (95%) to be Oscar nominated; the only anomaly occurred in 1995 (again!!), when Ang Lee won both the NBR and NYFCC but was inexplicably left off the Best Director lineup at the Oscars.
Sometimes when Picture and Director split, the director goes on to win Best Picture too, like Peter Jackson for Return of the King. Also worth noting, Kathryn Bigelow won Picture and Director from New York and Los Angeles before going on to win the Oscar too.
New York has a much better track record for predicting Best Picture, with 7 matches since 2000, whereas LA has only four. Though in fairness, matching with Oscar does not appear to be the LA Film Critics’ goal.
My predictions for LAFCA (we’ll do a more thorough list before Sunday):
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor: Matthew McCoughaughey
Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Cinematography: (something completely obscure or) The Master
Production Design: The Master
Score: The Master
Animation: Frankenweenie
The Chart
LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture
*Also nominated for best picture
2010 | Zero Dark Thirty | ||
2010 | The Descendants | The Artist | The Artist |
2010 | The Social Network* | The Social Network* | The King’s Speech |
2009 | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
2008 | Wall-E | Milk* | Slumdog Millionaire |
2007 | There Will Be Blood* | No Country for Old Men+ | No Country |
2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima* | United 93 | The Departed |
2005 | Brokeback Mountain* | Brokeback Mountain* | Crash |
2004 | Sideways* | Sideways* | Million Dollar Baby |
2003 | American Splendour | Return of the King | Return of the King |
2002 | About Schmidt | Far From Heaven | Chicago |
2001 | In the Bedroom* | Mulholland Drive | A Beautiful Mind |
2000 | Crouching Tiger* | Traffic* | Gladiator |
1999 | The Insider* | Topsy-Turvy | American Beauty |
1998 | Saving Private Ryan* | Saving Private Ryan* | Shakespeare in Love |
1997 | L.A. Confidential* | L.A. Confidential* | Titanic |
1996 | Secrets & Lies* | Fargo* | The English Patient |
1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
1994 | Pulp Fiction* | Quiz Show* | Forrest Gump |
1993 | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List |
1992 | Unforgiven+ | The Player | Unforgiven |
1991 | Bugsy* | The Silence of the Lambs+ | Silence of the Lambs |
1990 | Goodfellas* | Goodfellas* | Dances With Wolves |
1989 | Do the Right Thing | My Left Foot* | Driving Miss Daisy |
1988 | Little Dorrit | The Accidental Tourist* | Rain Man |
1987 | Hope and Glory* | Broadcast News* | The Last Emperor |
1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Platoon |
1985 | Brazil | Prizzi’s Honor* | Out of Africa |
1984 | Amadeus+ | Passage to India* | Amadeus |
1983 | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment |
1982 | E.T.* | Gandhi+ | Gandhi |
1981 | Atlantic City* | Reds* | Chariots of Fire |
1980 | Raging Bull* | Ordinary People+ | Ordinary People |
1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
1978 | Coming Home* | The Deer Hunter+ | The Deer Hunter |
1977 | Star Wars* | Annie Hall+ | Annie Hall |
1976 | Network* | All the President’s Men* | Rocky |
1975 | Dog Day Afternoon* | Nashville* | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
1974 | Armacord | Godfather II | |
1973 | La Nuit Américaine | The Sting | |
1972 | Viskningar och rop | The Godfather | |
1971 | A Clockwork Orange* | The French Connection | |
1970 | Five Easy Pieces* | Patton | |
1969 | Z* | Midnight Cowboy | |
1968 | Lion in Winter* | Oliver | |
1967 | In the Heat of the Night+ | In the Heat of the Night | |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons* | A Man for all Seasons | |
1965 | Darling* | the Sound of Music | |
1964 | My Fair Lady+ | My Fair Lady | |
1963 | Tom Jones+ | Tom Jones | |
1962 | none | Lawrence of Arabia | |
1961 | West Side Story+ | West Side Story | |
1960 | The Apartment+ | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | |
1959 | Ben Hur+ | Ben Hur | |
1958 | THe Defiant Ones* | Gigi | |
1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai+ | Bridge on the River Kwai | |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days+ | Around/World in 80 Days | |
1955 | Marty+ | Delbert Mann, Marty | |
1954 | On the Waterfront+ | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | |
1953 | From Here to Eternity+ | From Here to Eternity | |
1952 | High Noon* | The Greatest Show on Earth | |
1951 | Streetcar Named Desire* | An American in Paris | |
1950 | All About Eve+ | All About Eve |
Here are the members:
The LAFCA members:
STEPHEN FARBER, PRESIDENT
TIM GRIERSON, VICE PRESIDENT
JUSTIN CHANG, SECRETARY
ALONSO DURALDE, TREASURER
ROBERT ABELE
LEONARD KLADY
JOHN POWERS
DAVID ANSEN
ANDY KLEIN
CLAUDIA PUIG
ANDREW BARKER
ROBERT KOEHLER
PETER RAINER
CHARLES CHAMPLIN
CHRISTY LEMIRE
MICHAEL RECHTSHAFFEN
JUSTIN CHANG
EMANUEL LEVY
HARRIET ROBBINS
PETER DEBRUGE
SHERI LINDEN
JAMES ROCCHI
ALONSO DURALDE
LAEL LOEWENSTEIN
BETSY SHARKEY
DAVID EHRENSTEIN
KARINA LONGWORTH
RICHARD SCHICKEL
ANNLEE ELLINGSON
JUSTIN LOWE
HENRY SHEEHAN
STEPHEN FARBER
WADE MAJOR
BRENT SIMON
F.X. FEENEY
LEONARD MALTIN
CHARLES SOLOMON
SCOTT FOUNDAS
WILLARD MANUS
BOB STRAUSS
TODD GILCHRIST
TODD MCCARTHY
ELLA TAYLOR
MIKE GOODRIDGE
MYRON MEISEL
KEVIN THOMAS
JAMES GREENBERG
JOE MORGENSTERN
LUKE Y. THOMPSON
RAY GREENE
AMY NICHOLSON
KENNETH TURAN
TIM GRIERSON
MARK OLSEN
GLENN WHIPP
KIRK HONEYCUTT
JEAN OPPENHEIMER
CHUCK WILSON
MARK KEIZER
HJ PARK
ALYNDA WHEAT
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film:dark zero thirty;actor:daniel day-lewis-linccoln;actress:jessica chastain-dark zero thirty;s. actor: matthew mcconaughey-magic mike;s.actress:anne hathaway-les miserables;director:kathyrn bigelow-zero dark thirty;screenplay:tony kuschner-lincoln;animated:frankenweenie;foreign:amour;documentary:central park five.
Since this is often a reaction to the more prestigious New York Film Critics Award, unless there is a genuiune critical concensus across the board you can predict that LAFC will choose a different picture. Historically they will award an Actress from a foreign film, or one from an English language film but of whom you have not really heard. Then there will be the local-boy-makes-good nod in either Lead or Supporting Actor, or both. Supporting Actress will be an interesting but not-out-of-left-field choice.
Sticking with Life of Pi for LAFCA and Riva for Best actress.
Marshall, it’s not personal. People are allowed to, and should question, other people if they think they’ve made a mistake. No one’s infallible. And I wasn’t even trying to argue against any of your conclusions, I just thought you had a fact wrong.
wow, love seeing LAFCA’s past winners, i agree with them most. Wall-E, In the Bedroom, Pulp Fiction, Do the Right Thing, Network, ET, Star Wars, and Raging Bull serving as the stand outs in ‘best of the year’ justice.
“However, since those were 75 and 76, it lessens their impact some (as does the fact that they were ties).”
Which I specifically addressed by mentioning that the three times the LAFCA winner prevailed at the Oscars over NBR + NYFCC, all occurred within the first 10 years of LAFCA’s existence. Since then (1984), the NBR + NYFCC choice has won out if there is a coastal divergence.
I’m not assigning any predictive power or anything to this: I’m just stating the historical stats and trends. Take of them what you will. And don’t you tell me of my business again.
I stand (somewhat) corrected– I missed the ties in those years. However, since those were 75 and 76, it lessens their impact some (as does the fact that they were ties).
“He’s wrong about his stat on the 7 times that LAFCA differed from the NYFCC+NBR consensus– only ONCE (Amadeus) was the LAFCA choice the Oscar winner for Best Pic. The other 6 times the winner was something else entirely.”
In 1975, NYFCC + NBR went for Nashville, LAFCA went for One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (and Dog Day Afternoon). Yes it was a tie, but for all intents and purposes, Oscar matched with LAFCA over the east coast pick. Same thing in 1976, when LAFCA went with Rocky (and Network) while NYFCC + NBR went for All the President’s Men. So I stand by my assessment.
Hmm I don’t know… Only 4 times ever have NYFCC, LAFCA, and NBR agreed on Best Pic– 2 times they predicted the Oscar and 2 times they did not. More troubling, it was the two most recent times that they did not agree. I still think if the hype about ZD30 is real, then it will NOT win LAFCA.
He’s wrong about his stat on the 7 times that LAFCA differed from the NYFCC+NBR consensus– only ONCE (Amadeus) was the LAFCA choice the Oscar winner for Best Pic. The other 6 times the winner was something else entirely.
What it means is that if ZD30 wins LA as well, it would most likely suggest it WON’T win the Oscar (like Social Network), although it technically has a 50% chance based just off of precedent. If it does NOT win LA, the precedent is a 57% chance that ZD30 will win the Oscar, 14% chance that the LA choice will win, and a 29% chance that a 3rd option will win.
This will be Revenge of the Foreign Language Movies
Perhaps not. Wait for NSFC. You can usually be quite sure of that.
I love LAFC awards. At the very least, they are unperdictable and embracing. I remember when they chose in 1985 “BraziL” (for all you youngsters out there . .. it was probably the BEST picture of that year that went unnoticed by AMPAS.
So, here is an old movie picture’s predilection of LAFC this year.
Best Picture: Moonrise Kingdom
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Best Actress: Maggie Smith – Quartet
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Wilton – The Best Exotic Mirigol Hotel
Best Director – Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
Best Screenplay – Moonrise Kingdom
If any out-at-the-front organization is going to recognize Moonrise Kingdom, it is going to be LAFC.
Ah, well. I can dream, can’t I?
And remember, whoever wins Best Director from LAFCA gets a Best Director nom from the Academy. It’s happened every year since Spike Lee won for Do the Right Thing.
Don’t count out Argo here. Hollywood saving a bunch of Americans hiding out in Iran is soooo L.A.
I like Sasha’s list.
Love for MM, Sally (two great comeback stories to root for)and ZD30 and Lincoln.
My heart will be full.
This will be Revenge of the Foreign Language Movies (Amour, specifically).
Also, teaser trailer released today for Star Trek: Into Darkness (May 13, 2013)
http://youtu.be/9jFZOicwtBw (USA)
http://youtu.be/BrHlQUXFzfw (Japan, with more at the end…)
Nine minutes of STID will precede IMAX-only screenings of The Hobbit next weekend.
I am going crazy with LAFC. Lots of Masters and Amours mentions.
I feel like it will be Denzel Washinton’s first win.
You can’t pick Actress
Sasha, Best Actress Field is missing from the Prediction form.