The National Board of Review announces Wednesday. While most people go on and on about how they don’t matter, the truth is that yes, they DO matter. Any major awards precursor matters because they give a contender publicity and legitimacy, no matter who they are. The National Board of Review really pushed Hugo into the race last year and set The Social Network up for its sweep of the critics awards. To date, it’s the only film that ever won Film, Director and Screenplay; usually they split up the awards. Will NBR recognize a woman with their best director award for the first time in their 77 year history, or give Spielberg his first win there since Empire of the Sun. Will DDL also finally win Best Actor there?
According to our Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores:
Historically, NBR Best Film winners have an average total haul of two wins, and it’s more likely that the best film winner takes an acting award with it instead of director or screenplay; unlike LAFCA or NYFCC, where pic and director match more than half the time (56% at NYFCC, 60% at LAFCA), pic and director/screenplay match only 33% of the time at the NBR, so splits are more common here. Also worth noting: No Country for Old Men is the only film in NBR history to win both Best Film and Best Ensemble, while The Social Network is the only film to have won Film, Director, and a screenplay award.
Finally, it is uncommon (though not rare) for both the NBR and the NYFCC to select the same Best Film winner – this has occurred 25% of the time in the past 67 years (although this match frequency is twice as high compared to NBR and LAFCA). Eleven of the 17 films NBR and NYFCC both agreed on for Best Film did go on to win the Best Picture Oscar; however, the last time this occurred was back in 1993 with Schindler’s List. Take from these stats and trends what you will.
You got that last part? When they DO match, that movie, unless it’s something brave and exceptional like LA Confidential or The Social Network it goes on to win Best Picture. If Zero Dark Thirty wins the NBR and Los Angeles, we now know it could still not win Best Picture, as The Social Network proved. To win the Oscar you have to win the guild awards, specifically the DGA (not always, but it helps).
The Best Picture winner has been on NBR’s list 9 out of the last 12 years. Only twice have they matched Best Picture with Oscar since 2000- No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire. Since 1934, 19 NBR winners have won the Best Picture Oscar. Since 2001, all of their winners have at least gone on to be nominated for Best Picture.
But something tells me the NBR will not go for Zero Thirty, although it’s certainly possible. In 2009, for instance, they didn’t go for The Hurt Locker. They don’t really have any specific taste but tend to be more general audience friendly than the NYFCC. They used to be the first critics group that announced until the New York Film Critics cockblocked them. Usually this would be considered too early to start deciding winners but everything has been shifted back and Oscar voters get their ballots on the 17th.
To that end, egads, I’m going to predict the winner and then the ten best. For our contest, you will do the same. I didn’t add the other categories in the previous versions of the contest so we’ll just leave it at the 11.
Best Picture winner
Argo (alt Les Miserables)
Top Ten:
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables (alt Argo)
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The past winners:
2000:
*Quills
Traffic
Croupier
You Can Count On Me
Billy Elliot
Before Night Falls
Gladiator
Wonder Boys
Sunshine
Dancer in the Dark
2001:
*Moulin Rouge!
In the Bedroom
Ocean’s Eleven
Memento
Monster’s Ball
Black Hawk Down
The Man Who Wasn’t There
A.I. Artificial Intelligence
The Pledge
Mulholland Drive
2002:
*The Hours
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Quiet American
Adaptation.
Rabbit-Proof Fence
The Pianist
Far from Heaven
Thirteen Conversations About One Thing
Frida
2003:
*Mystic River
The Last Samurai
The Station Agent
21 Grams
House of Sand and Fog
Lost in Translation
Cold Mountain
In America
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
2004:
*Finding Neverland
The Aviator
Closer
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Kinsey
Vera Drake
Ray
Collateral
Hotel Rwanda
2005:
*Good Night, and Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
A History of Violence
Match Point
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana
Walk the Line
2006:
*Letters from Iwo Jima
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil
2007:
*No Country for Old Men
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
2008:
*Slumdog Millionaire
Burn After Reading
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
WALL-E
The Wrestler
2009:
*Up in the Air
(500) Days of Summer
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Where the Wild Things Are
2010:
*The Social Network
Another Year
The Fighter
Hereafter
Inception
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
2011: (in alphabetical order except for 1)
Hugo
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Just winners
2011 Hugo
2010 The Social Network
2009 Up in the Air
2008 Slumdog Millionaire
2007 No Country for Old Men
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima
2005 Good Night, And Good Luck
2004 Finding Neverland
2003 Mystic River
2002 The Hours
2001 Moulin Rouge
2000 Quills
1999 American Beauty
1998 Gods and Monsters
1997 L.A. Confidential
1996 Shine
1995 Sense & Sensibility
1994 Pulp Fiction
1993 Schindler’s List
1992 Howards End
1991 The Silence of the Lambs
1990 Dances With Wolves
1989 Driving Miss Daisy
1987 Empire of the Sun
1986 A Room with a View
1985 The Color Purple
1984 A Passage to India
1983 Betrayal
1982 Gandhi
1981 Chariots of Fire
1980 Ordinary People
1979 Manhattan
1978 Days of Heaven
1977 The Turning Point
1976 All the President´s Men
1975 Nashville
1974 The Conversation
1973 The Sting
1972 Cabaret
1971 Macbeth
1970 Patton
1969 They Shoot Horses, Don´t They?
1968 The Shoes of the Fisherman
1967 Far From the Madding Crowd
1966 A Man for All Seasons
1965 The Eleanor Roosevelt Story
1964 Becket
1963 Tom Jones
1962 The Longest Day
1961 Question 7
1960 Sons and Lovers
1959 The Nun´s Story
1958 The Old Man and the Sea
1957 The Bridge on the River Kwai
1956 Around the World in 80 Days
1955 Marty
1954 On the Waterfront
1953 Julius Caesar
1952 The Quiet Man
1951 A Place in the Sun
1950 Sunset Boulevard
1949 The Bicycle Thief
1948 Paisan
1947 Monsieur Verdoux
1946 Henry V
1945 The True Glory
1944 None But the Lonely Heart
1943 The Ox-Bow Incident
1942 In Which We Serve
1941 Citizen Kane
1940 The Grapes of Wrath
1939 Confessions of a Nazi Spy
1938 The Citadel
1937 Night Must Fall
1936 Mr. Deeds Goes to Town
1935 The Informer
1934 It Happened One Night
Lots of people mentioning The Hobbit. They never went for LOTR so I don’t see why they’d go for it this time.
My list:
Winner: Lincoln
Top Ten:
Argo- my alternate win pick
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Flight
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Magic Mike
Moonrise Kingdom
Trouble with the Curve
Zero Dark Thirty
FYI, They only have 10 films total on their year-end lists, including the winner (unless there is a tie). So it should be 1 winner and 9 nominees.
Predictions:
1. Lincoln
Others:
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hunger Games
Skyfall
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
End of Watch
Silver Linings Playbook
picture:lincoln;actor daniel day-lewis;actress jessica chastain;s.actor matthew mcconaughey;s.actress anne hathaway;director steven spielberg;o.screenplay moonrise kingdom;a.screenplay lincoln;animated frankenweenie;foreign amour;documentary theinvisible war.
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
The Master
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Perks of Being A Wallflower
Skyfall
ALT:
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
The Avengers
Best Film: Lincoln
Top 10:
Amour
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
The Impossible
Les Miz
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Screenplay: Tony Kushner
Screenplay is split Original: Quentin Tarantino
Foreign Film: Amour
In addition to those Ricky mentioned that should be highlighted in blue: Seabiscuit was also nommed for BP.
Also, hilarious that the Hollywood Film Awards have awarded best ensemble to:
The cast of “The Help” – BEN AFFLECK, BRYAN CRANSTON, ALAN ARKIN, JOHN GOODMAN
Hey it seems that you, like most people, forgot that A Serious Man was nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars as well. Toy Story 3 too
PICTURE: Lincoln
DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams, The Master
SCREENPLAY: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Amour
DOCUMENTARY: The Invisible War
TOP TEN:
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Argo
The Master
The Sessions
Winner: The Master
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Actress: Emmannuelle Riva, Amour
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Original Screenplay: The Master
Top Ten:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Flight
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
NBR is so hard to predict. they always award to someone out of the blue
I have a gut feeling its going to be Lincoln or Life of Pi.
Winner:
Lincoln
Top 10:
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
The Sessions
Amour
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Bernie
Best Picture winner
Life of Pi
Top Ten:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
For those not in the know KFCSC = Kentucky Fried Chicken Society of Critics. It’s a collection of critics that weigh 300 pounds. Their Best Pick is expected to go to Searching for Sugar Man.
Expect a lot of love for Beasts of the Southern Wild. I don’t think NBR will go for Zero Dark Thirty either. I am hoping Life of Pi wins something here!
Actor – Daniel day Lewis
Actress – Jessica chastain
S actor – Matthew m – magic mike
S actress – Ann dowd
Lincoln
Argo
Holy motors
Les miz
Cloud atlas
Django unchained
The master
Dark knight rises
Beasts of the southern wild
Life of pi
Moonrise kingdom
Winner – zero dark thirty
Sasha is putting entirely too much stock into NYFCC results at this point.
Then KFCSC will come along with their own set and will be largely ignored despite being the second oldest critics group organization in the country.
To: One of the Niks – I think the completely fictional scene in which Ben Affleck was panicked about the plane tickets shows how emotionally invested he was.
As for the meat of the thread, I kind of have to agree with Steve50. They awarded Hugo last year and not too long ago they gave the award to The Hours. Both of these are major award winning books that were made into strong films. Neither were BP Frontrunners either.
So when another major award winner comes along and is made into a strong film it shouldn’t be discounted. And it was an extremely faithful adaption of a book that when you read it you say to yourself “They could never make this into a film!” and yet it’s a very good film.
I have a sneaking suspicion the award will go to Life of Pi.
Somewhat confirming the post above from Evelyn…
OT: new prints of Lincoln are headed to theaters to meet the demand.
http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/4e67281c3f754d0696fbfdee0f3f1469/Article_2012-12-03-Film-Lincoln/id-d9b066e4966d4f68aa5f3815d64f2218
Against naysayers, Lincoln is a complete success critically and commercially, Oscar or not. Sweet. I completely embrace my ‘fangirling’ for this film. I believe I will like the others I haven’t seen yet, mostly 0D30 and Les Mis, but Lincoln settled in my heart and will not go away. Sue me. 😀
For Glenn and anyone else who fears that LINCOLN is dull or didactic, the film is witty, moving and funny. I live in the Shenandoah valley of Virginia, not a hotbed of film sophistication, and audiences here have embraced the film with sold out showings. People were weeping at the end when we saw it. It is in no way a boring history lesson. It deserves every award it can get, especially the incomparable DDL.
I personally think that the NBR will either select Lincoln or Argo. Both are very good films but technically Lincoln surpasses Argo. The other issue is that Affleck shows he has become a “director” and doesn’t need to prove himself to anyone anymore but his performance in Argo leaves a bit to be desired. He manages to exude the worn and tired emotion but that’s about all he manages to bring across the screen. His performance comes off more like a “job” than anything more important than that and perhaps that’s exactly what he wanted to communicate but I can’t imagine being involved in such an endeavor and not becoming emotionally involved in the process. That’s the only fault I can find with Argo.
NBR Best Picture Lincoln
Argo
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Amour
Looper
Les Miserables
Silver Lining Playbook
me smells an Emmanuelle Riva victory for Best Actrees at NBR
What time does this stare today?
Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook
The NBR looks to be the most “literate” of the groups in that a huge percentage of their winners are adaptations of books or films that contain strong historical or biographical elements in the narrative. This is probably due to the tastes of the primarily academic membership of the NBR.
Given that past winners include Finding Neverland, Moulin Rouge, Quills, and Gods and Monsters, I think this will boost films like Cloud Atlas and Les Miserables. In the end, though, I’m guessing that Lincoln or Life of Pi will benefit the most, with the latter having a sight edge.
Winner – Life of Pi
top 10
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
My feeling is that they’ve been somewhat unreliable of late in regard to gauging the consensus of the season due to their position in said season. They’ve gone first, while other major groups have held back and had the time to see what directions the race was taking, enabling them either to follow suit and contribute towards the success of the frontrunners or to give a struggling contender a significant push. NBR has never had such strategic advantages. Other groups have been able to ignore their choices very easily, although that might be more to do with the fact that their choices have been easy to want to ignore…
They may not be first out of the gate any more, but they’re still very early in the race, so things probably won’t have changed much these past two years.
Best Picture Winner:
Lincoln
Top Ten:
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Skyfall
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
The Dictator
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
Hyde Park on Hudson
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Argo
Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, Compliance
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
I loved this from the Hollywood Awards site:
HOLLYWOOD ENSEMBLE AWARD: The cast of “The Help” – BEN AFFLECK, BRYAN CRANSTON, ALAN ARKIN, JOHN GOODMAN
I am hoping that we have a year of “spread the wealth”. It’s been such a fantastic movie year that to have a two horse race at this stage would be totally deflating. I’m really looking forward to seeing ZDT – its my kind of subject matter but I certainly do not want it to sweep. My feelings for Les Miz are so strong but I adore the stage show, so I am biased there. But it has an epic feel and epic is what the Academy usually pushes. Argo is a great film and I would love to see Ben win Director. Life of Pi I have not seen but again looks epic but in the style of Avatar, ie visually stunning. Lincoln I feel mixed about. As someone said yesterday, its like having a great dinner but being told to eat your sprouts and I really don’t like sprouts. But I adore Sally and I will go and see it just to see her. It’s truly a bumper year and I would love to see it all mixed up and see how the Guilds decide to fall. I know Sasha thinks the critics have a place in the race but I sense a divide between the critics and the Guilds. Yes there will always be exceptions but on the whole there is a split at the moment. Wonder if this year will bring them back into alignment?
Winner: Lincoln
Top 10:
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
The Silver Linings Playbook
Moonrise Kingdom
The Hobbit
Flight
Life Of Pi
Les Miserables
The Impossible
Beasts Of The Southern Wild
The NBR is one of the more unpredictable groups and I could see any number of unexpected entries here. A few possible surprises:
The Deep Blue Sea
Seven Psychopaths
Anna Karenina
Bernie
Magic Mike
The Avengers
I watched all five clips of Les Miserables and the production looks amazing! Looks like a Producer’s Guild winner and Screen Actor’s Guild as well, which obviously bodes well for Oscar. Maybe I’m jumping the gun, but I’m picking it as NBR winner with Lincoln as alt.
I also, keep wondering where in the best picture race The Great Gatsby would be right now if it was never pushed back to 2013.
Sasha, do you think it could have been a front-runner?
HOLLYWOOD FILM AWARDS
http://www.hollywoodawards.com/awards-2/honorees/
Winner – Argo
Top 10 (alphabetical order):
Argo
Django Unchained
Flight
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Picture Winner: Lincoln
Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Actor: DDL, Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, SLP, THG
Sup Actor: PSH, The Master
Sup Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Mis, TDKR
Top 10:
Les Miserables
Argo
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
The Hobbit
TDKR
Skyfall
Winner: Argo
Top 10
Argo
SLP
Life of Pi
Lincoln
ZDT
Les Miserables
The Master
Beasts of Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained.
How many fucking Clint Eastwood movies did they recognize?! Talk about overrated!!!
We need a rallying cry for Beasts of the Southern Wild – it was the most original and visually-told film of the year. I think it trumps the well-made but far more conventional movies topping the lists.
Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones , Lincoln
Supporting Actress:
Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Original Screenplay:
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Breakthrough Performance:
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Top 10:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
I could see how much they love Clint Eastwood
Winner – Lincoln
top 10
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Flight
Killing Them Softly
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
it’s really impossible to predict the winners based on the trend.. most of the winners were unexpected (including acting categories)..even i don’t see any actors from musical film won something (for the past decades) .. So i don’t see Anne Hathaway to win for supporting category..
I have a hard time believing that Cloud Atlas will make it. Not even too sure about TDKR. I could see either of them (or perhaps both) being taken out for Skyfall.
Winner: Lincoln
Top 10:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Trouble with the Curve (they always have something bizarre in the top ten, and they love Clint regardless of the quality of his work. So there).
Zero Dark Thirty
(there are so many other worthy contenders that it’s hard to predict a top ten. The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Moonrise Kingdom, The Hobbit, Cloud Atlas, Rust and Bone, Skyfall, The Impossible, The Hunger Games, Anna Karenina, etc., are all very plausible, too).
Director:
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress:
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Supporting Actor:
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables and The Dark Knight Rises
Best Original Screenplay:
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Breakthrough Performance:
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Argo
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Something tells me that the NBR will go for Lincoln. If not that then probably Argo.