Zero Dark Thirty

New York Film Critics Awards, 3 apiece for Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln!

  • Best Film: Zero Dark Thirty
  • Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Best Actress: Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea
  • Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
  • Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
  • Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Bernie and Magic Mike
  • Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
  • Best Cinematography: Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Best Foreign Language Film: Michael Haneke, Amour
  • Best First Film: David France, How To Survive a Plague
  • Best Nonfiction Film: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon, The Central Park Five
  • Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie

New York Film Critics – Last Minute Predictions?

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Zero Dark Thirty Takes Early Lead in Oscar’s Race for Best Picture

420 Comments

  1. dreamphoenix
    December 3, 2012

    Anywhere we can follow the event online, do those guys have a twitter account or something?

  2. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Jim Broadbent takes S Actor

  3. Josh
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Nicole Kidman wins Best Supporting Actress

  4. Heath87
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG Les miserables wins Best Film

  5. Idrosak
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG , naomi watts Best actress

  6. Lara
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG, Marion Cotillard wins Best Actress

  7. Paul8148
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: John Goodman wins Supporting Actor for his body of work

  8. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    https://twitter.com/NYFCC/

    The last Tweet is still “The Artist”, but hopefully it’ll change soon :)

  9. Filmboymichael
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG Richard Gere wins best actor for arbitrage.

  10. December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Django Unchained wins Picture, Director, Supporting Actor for Samuel L. Jackson, Screenplay and Cinematography

  11. steandric
    December 3, 2012

    Jennifer Lawrence takes the Razzi.

  12. hrh
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG:
    Holy motors, Best screenplay.
    Nicole Kidman, Best Supporting Actress.
    Ewan McGregor, Best Supporting acto.

  13. Robbie
    December 3, 2012

    Predictions -

    Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty, (2nd place: The Master)
    Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (2nd place: Katherine Bigelow)
    Best Actor: Juaquin Phoenix (2nd: DDL)
    Best Actress: Marion Cottilard (2nd: Chastain)
    Best Screenplay: Lincoln (2nd: Argo)

  14. Mikhail Shurygin
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: TDNR FTW)

  15. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    At this point predicting anyone else than DDL is a No Guts No Glory pick. The NYC Critics love to award him.

  16. Kane
    December 3, 2012

    Les Mis takes best cinematography
    Jason Clarke is runner-up supporting actor

  17. Dion Blackler
    December 3, 2012

    Best picture: Holy Motors
    Best actor: Denis Lavant

  18. Heath87
    December 3, 2012

    Can we assume that ZD30 is already winning this thing??

    Hope it’s not another boring season, awards-wise…

  19. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG

    The Impossible for the win

  20. TB
    December 3, 2012

    I can’t see lincoln losing. Maybe the nyfcc will not realize this is the best film in quite some time but come Oscar time people and academy members will. The only stone on the road for this great film is a little thing called “backlash”… Which has cost other great films the oscar.

    I thought I would never feel that Spielberg would be a frontrunner for the Oscar again. With the expectations he carries in the people’s and critics minds, this is unbelievable. But the truth (and the bottom line) is that he made the best film of recent memory, not to mention the most an important one. This film will no doubt pass the test of time.

  21. m
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Nicole Kidman wins Best Supporting Actress

  22. December 3, 2012

    NGNG: No wins best foreign language film. ¡Vamos Chile!

  23. vv
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Life of Pi takes Best Picture

  24. TOM
    December 3, 2012

    Beasts of the Southern Wild wins nothing…maybe a ‘Best Newcomer’ certificate.

  25. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    Edelstein has listed ZDT as his #1 in his just-published Top 10 (Lincoln at #2). We already know Corliss loved ZDT as did Yahoo! Movies. ZDT might be a popular choice right now. Lincoln has a shot. My spoiler pick would be The Master.

  26. César
    December 3, 2012

    Trintignant wins Best Actor

  27. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    It just occured to me how much I like this moment. The season actually begins, THIS IS IT!!! :)

  28. Bane
    December 3, 2012

    Let the games begin!

  29. Mark
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Jacki Weaver takes supporting actress, Eddie Redmayne supporting actor.

  30. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    I predict Corliss follows the Edelstein model and has ZDT / Lincoln as his top 2. Just a hunch — he had War Horse at 5 last year which bodes really well for Lincoln making it higher on his list.

  31. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Do they announce at 10 or is that when voting begins???

  32. mileshigh
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG Pick: The Master for Best Film

  33. Paul8148
    December 3, 2012

    No one brought this up but does Anna get credit for TDKR too for supporting Actress?

  34. Bridget von Hammersmarck
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Not only does the NYFCC not give anything to Beasts of the Southern Shakey Handheld Camera, they actually issue a statement recommending that it be nominated for Razzies.

  35. December 3, 2012

    Are they the ones that do it one by one? If they are I’m gonna go get snacks.

  36. Alfredo
    December 3, 2012

    I’m refreshing like a mad man over here. Antoinette get me a pepsi, please…:)

  37. Radich
    December 3, 2012

    You are not alone, Alfredo…Damn, this is nerve wracking, and crazy. But I have nothing better to do right now, so refresh the page I will. :D

  38. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    At first I thought it was 7am in NEW YORK. Dang. Then I read here that they only start voting at that time and I guess actual announcing could be hours away. Dang. I have to go to work.

  39. Andrep
    December 3, 2012

    Matthew McConaughey best supporting actor, Best actor: Denis Lavant

  40. Jesus Alonso
    December 3, 2012

    Lincoln sweeps Picture, Director, Lead Actor. Maybe.

  41. Shashwat
    December 3, 2012
  42. Rg
    December 3, 2012

    Ngng. Doona Bae wins supporting actress

  43. Radich
    December 3, 2012

    Damn, you are completely right, Tero. I’m not in the USA anymore, so my time is a bit screwed up right now. Hope it won’t be long for us to know. I will keep refreshing from time to time though.

    And Jesus…Amen! But for some reason I think they will bring back The Master from the shadows. We’ll see.

  44. Jesus Alonso
    December 3, 2012

    A couple of shockers that would rock my world.

    Tom Holland as either lead or supporting, The Impossible and Bruce Willis for Looper

  45. vv
    December 3, 2012

    Best First Film: David France (HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE)

  46. white russian
    December 3, 2012

    Eh their twitter feed clearly isn’t updating yet but they have how to survive a plague for best first film on their offical website.

    I think it’s just under awards.

  47. December 3, 2012

    *hands Alfredo a Coke*

    I went to McDonald’s. They don’t have Pepsi. Maybe we can get God to change it. :D

    I see I didn’t miss nuthin’.

  48. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    First award of the season and I’m already pissed :’(

  49. December 3, 2012

    In other news, it looks like Kate Middleton’s tummy has a voice! :)

  50. Bridget von Hammersmarck
    December 3, 2012

    First award of the season and I’m already ecstatic!

  51. Rg
    December 3, 2012

    First award of the season,and I am already hungry lol

  52. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @Antoinette
    OMG!!! That trumps all the award news!!! The future king or queen of England is on the way!!!
    When does Hooper gets the CBE by the way?? After he sweeps the Oscars with Les Miz?

  53. Alfredo
    December 3, 2012

    Thanks Antoinette! Still waiting here…they must be having a serious debate about who to give the awards to…

  54. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    “Central Park Five” wins Best Non-Fiction Film. DUH. It’s about New York. ;)

  55. Akumax
    December 3, 2012

    sooo slow… they are so slow…

  56. Alfredo
    December 3, 2012

    While we’re waiting…can anyone explain how the NYFCC process works? Do they sit and vote anonymously or is more Hunger Games style with each tribute representing a different film and last one standing is awarded?

  57. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    Who knew that critics are a little slow. OK.

    Fuck it, I have to go to work. I’ll see the winners in 7hrs or so.

  58. andrew
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG

    OMG!

    Best Actor: Tom Holland

    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried

  59. Rodrigo JP
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG : Best Picture – Moonrise Kingdom

  60. December 3, 2012

    1 out of 2 so far.

    Best Picture: Argo
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook and The Hunger Games
    Best Supporting Actor: Robert de Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt – The Sessions
    Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner – Lincoln
    Best First Film: Beasts of the Southern Wild – Benh Zeitlin
    Best Cinematography: The Master – Mihai Malaimare, Jr.
    Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
    Best Documentary: Central Park Five

    http://tanfoi305.tumblr.com/

  61. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    If I recall, this group is the slowest of them all. Took almost all day last year.

  62. December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Chris Nolan takes Director, and Les Miz takes Picture.

  63. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    Oh YEAH!!! FRASIER!!!

  64. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    Oh my! I’d better go watch a movie (or two, or three) and check the results back later then.

  65. Bridget von Hammersmarck
    December 3, 2012

    Ugh. The dreaded shakey-zoomey handheld camera crap wins. Stupid critics, you shouldn’t encourage this horrible technique!

  66. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    ZD30 !!!

  67. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Cloud Atlas takes Best Picture
    Michael Fassbender takes S. Actor for Prometheus

  68. jgfjd
    December 3, 2012

    I hoped Deakins would get the cinematography(((( oh well (

  69. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    Woot! the critics show signs of life. Can’t wait to see ZD30

  70. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    hmm. Over Pi and The Master (cinematography)? If they like it that much, we might have a foregone conclusion here.

  71. Zooey
    December 3, 2012

    It’s a competitive year. That’s why it takes so long time. Given how they vote (3p, 2p, 1p and you need 50 percent plus one to win the award on a first ballot and they start blocking each other’s favorites until a compromise choice takes the award) it’s no surprise it takes that much time.

    Last year Meryl won on the first ballot and it took 5 minutes to vote for best actress but this time around I see it a very contestes best actress race here with Riva, Lawrence and Chastain head to head for the win.

    If Zero Dark Thirty is that much of a favorite, it could win picture, directing, actress, screenplay in addition to the cinematography win. How did it beat The Master?????

  72. Paul8148
    December 3, 2012

    any NY critic tweeting durning the voting?

  73. Max G
    December 3, 2012

    NGNG: Looper for Screenplay, Phoenix for Actor, Arkin for Supporting, Argo for Picture, Affleck for Direction, ZDT for Cinematography, Chastain for Actress

  74. Laquifa Wadley
    December 3, 2012

    The long wait is understandable. Unlike all other award shows, the NYFCs don’t have any one else to shadow; they are the ones that set the standard. With that said, I think Twilight will sweep, the FX on baby Nessie’s face were one of a kind.

  75. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    I’m guessing supp. actress is next. It’s taking them a long time to decide, maybe Hathaway isn’t a sho-in like everyone says she is.

  76. LillyB45
    December 3, 2012

    “While we’re waiting…can anyone explain how the NYFCC process works? Do they sit and vote anonymously or is more Hunger Games style with each tribute representing a different film and last one standing is awarded?”

    Several years ago (around 1988 or 1989) there was a really informative and very funny piece published in Premiere magazine explaining this very thing.

    I’d post a link but I haven’t clue how to find it. Anyway, the author of the piece explained that frequently the NYFCC’s choices come down to voting for the consensus movie that nobody really hates, because the other choices tend to be too difficult to agree about.

    He also said that sometimes it comes down to which producers, actors and directors they want to invite to their party. Evidently, Meryl Streep sometimes won, not just because of her great performances, but also because she’s really a lot of fun at awards ceremonies.

    The writers are also sometimes just being impish with their choices as when they voted Steve Martin as Best Actor for “Roxanne.” The way the system works is that they have rounds of voting to narrow down the lists, and Martin’s name happened to unexpectedly appear on late round ballots.

    Seeing Steve’s name that late in the voting made everyone get conspiratorial smiles on thier faces as if to say, “Can we really get away with voting Steve Martin as Best Actor?” Well, they could and they did.

  77. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    They like her, they REALLY LIKE her!

    S Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln

  78. GoOnNow
    December 3, 2012

    I do think Jessica will snatch Actress :) not only here but at the Oscars.

    But frankly speaking, it would be COOL to see them have an unorthodox choice, like Maggie Smith, or Keira or something not considered a top-3;

  79. GoOnNow
    December 3, 2012

    So happy it did not go Hathaway’s way :) So So So happy about that :P

    Yayyy

    I’m not hating on Anne, just LOVING variety and this year’s race more and more :)

  80. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    Field it is. Well, I guess there is a race in that category after all.

  81. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    Awards for ZDT and Lincoln right off the bat; I like it so far.

  82. dinasztie
    December 3, 2012

    I’M FUCKING ELATED THAT SALLY FIELD WON!!! Snatch Anne’s wig please! :)))

  83. therealmike
    December 3, 2012

    If Forrest Gump´s mom wins another Oscar I shoot myself.

  84. d2
    December 3, 2012

    Sally Field? Really? How original.

  85. December 3, 2012

    I wanna see how much I can get done while this is going on. I just took a shower. So now it’s time to iron my hair.

    I also just realized that I don’t know who I was rooting for in Supporting Actress. But it wasn’t Sally Field. lol

    Supporting Actor is always my favorite category but it’s going to be another bad year for me as Guy Pearce is my fave. *sigh*

  86. akumax
    December 3, 2012

    “If Forrest Gump´s mom wins another Oscar I shoot myself”

    Please don’t arm yourself… shelby drink your juice is going home with Oscar number 3 ; )

  87. Rg
    December 3, 2012

    Oh boy! Anne Vs Sally Field! Woot woot!

  88. Lynn
    December 3, 2012

    I’m having the huge feeling right now that Cotillard will win best actress.

  89. d2
    December 3, 2012

    Why must the Oscar almost always go to the film I loathe the most. First Crash, then Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, then The Artist and now Lincoln. Christ. This amid fantastic wins by No Country for Old Men and The Hurt Locker.

  90. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Yay for Sally! Love her. Truly hope this transfers to Oscar!!!

  91. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    haha! no idea if nyfcca is accurate but it sure is funny

  92. therealmike
    December 3, 2012

    @akumax: Honey, even Mrs. Euphegenia Doubtfire doesn´t approve this.

  93. Alfredo
    December 3, 2012

    Holy smokes! Sally Field beat out Anne Hathaway!

  94. Bridget von Hammersmarck
    December 3, 2012

    I would’ve preferred La Kruger — at the very least to give her some traction in this race — but I can totally accept Sally Field. She is magnificent in Lincoln.

  95. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    supporting actor: Mathew McConaghey, Bernie/Magic Mike.

    Uh…….umkay…

  96. rodrigo jp
    December 3, 2012

    matthew mcconaghey? is he really that good in magic mike?

  97. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    McConaughey!!!!!!!!!

  98. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    MMMMATTTTHHHHEWWWWWWW!!!!!! Love it!

  99. Bridget von Hammersmarck
    December 3, 2012

    McConaughey!!! LOVE it!!!!

  100. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    Good god – MMc best supporting actor? Hell just froze over.

  101. Spout
    December 3, 2012

    Greig Fraser! Absolutely 100 percent, fucking deserved!!!

  102. therealmike
    December 3, 2012

    Wait, what?

  103. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    McConaughey might just sneak in after all, between this very prestigious early award, career-best year and passionate campaign (Soderbergh-letter etc.), he pretty much has everything a solid contender could ask for.

  104. December 3, 2012

    ALRIGHT, ALRIGHT!!! :D

    Go Matthew!!!

  105. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    You gotta give it to him, he had a great year. “Killer Joe”, “Paperboy”, “Mud”.

  106. Brad
    December 3, 2012

    Congrats to McConaughey!

  107. GoOnNow
    December 3, 2012

    7 more awards to be announced, right?

  108. Yashar
    December 3, 2012

    WTF!? McConaughey wins SA for Berine and MM but not for Killer Joe!? Seriously?

  109. Joey
    December 3, 2012

    Matthew. Effing. McConaughey. SO excited! This Oscar season is so insane already.

  110. Calvin
    December 3, 2012

    Sally and Matthew over Anne and Tommy? That’s weird… Me gusta weirda :D

  111. Rg
    December 3, 2012

    What?!?!!?

  112. Film Fatale
    December 3, 2012

    Yes Paul, Mkay.

    McConaghey had a banner year and his work in both films as well as his GREAT turn in Killer Joe makes him more than deserving.

  113. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    Yeah – if they are going to award for multiple performances, they should be for the entire body of work that year. For everyone.

  114. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    FRANKENWEENIE! YES!!!

  115. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    Oh man, I hope Burton will get the Oscar. He is way due.

  116. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    no supporting for hathaway?? maybe she’ll just get best actress for batman and les miz

  117. Nic V
    December 3, 2012

    Well I’m elated about Sally Field. Sorry but it was the best performance by a Supporting Actress this year and I could have lived with Anne Hathaway. I’m really thrown by Maththew winning. I thought he played a character in Magic Mike I’d never seen him do before so I kinda get it. I think I like Alan Arkin more though in Argo but I can live with Matthew as well.

  118. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Animated Film: Frankenweenie

  119. Alfredo
    December 3, 2012

    Oh wow…these awards are not turning out the way I thought…very exciting

  120. BF
    December 3, 2012

    Anne has no chance at the oscar based on what she did to the telecast 2 years ago

  121. December 3, 2012

    Yeah – if they are going to award for multiple performances, they should be for the entire body of work that year. For everyone.

    Which also makes it weird for Field to win over Hathaway.

  122. kjbacon
    December 3, 2012

    LOVED Bernie. “Love lifted me!!”

  123. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    “FRANKENWEENIE! YES!!!”

    HA! Now there’s a post you don’t want to take out of context.

  124. Alfredo
    December 3, 2012

    I’m still trying to wrap my brain around the idea of Academy Award nominee Matthew McConaughey…

  125. Joey
    December 3, 2012

    You mean save the telecast? Be genuine? Be one of the only enjoyable things about that telecast?

  126. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @BF
    what did she do except save the night and keep a good face despite Franco? hollywood loves her, it’s in the bag.

  127. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    She is not gonna win best Actress for Les Miz & Dark Knight Rises today.

  128. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    Frankenweenie win might be a bad thing though if nyfcca gets everything wrong…. well that one might just escape the curse

  129. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    Amour best foreign, no surprise here

  130. Mister Mr.
    December 3, 2012

    What makes you so sure that McConaughey will be an academy award nominee? Last years winner Albert Brooks didn’t get there either.

  131. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Foreign Language: Amour

  132. Joseph
    December 3, 2012

    McConaughey also had The Paperboy which could have been cited as well. It’s an actor’s movie.

  133. Ted
    December 3, 2012

    I’m thinking that cinematography win for ZERO DARK THIRTY is a hint at what’s to come.

  134. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    I don’t see any balls-out powerhouse performance in the supp actor category this year, and there such performances won last 5 years in a row. This year any thing can happen, we could have a Gooding Jr. or a Coburn on our hands.

  135. Daniel
    December 3, 2012

    Two actors I think nothing of win the supporting awards. Well this award doesn’t decide on the Oscar wins outright. Still holding out for DDL to win for Lincoln.

  136. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Koles, they could decide to throw a bone to Tom Hardy (TDKR) or Woody Harrelson (Hunger Games); supporting actor is deep this year if you just let *all* quality movies into the tent.

  137. Kane
    December 3, 2012

    I swear to Christ I almost picked Matthew McConaughey for NGNG

  138. December 3, 2012

    I’m not surprised by McConaughey’s victory. It remains to be seen if he’ll win the Oscar, but he’ll certainly be nominated. I mean, at Halloween, I saw two guys dressed as his MAGIC MIKE character. If your performance has entered the zeitgeist like that, then it’s inevitable that it’ll be remembered at awards time. He was tremendous in all three of his 2012 movies, and his has easily been deemed the “comeback” of the year. I’m extremely excited by this and many of the NY critic’s choices so far. By the way, I am expecting Kushner for screenplay, Chastain for Actress, Day-Lewis for Actor, Haneke for director, and The Master for picture.

  139. December 3, 2012

    @Koleś

    Allow me to show you some balls:

    Guy Pearce in LAWLESS
    Tom Hardy in THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
    Benicio Del Toro in SAVAGES
    John Travolta in SAVAGES
    Hugh Grant in CLOUD ATLAS
    Hugo Weaving in CLOUD ATLAS
    Javier Bardem in SKYFALL
    James Gandolfini in KILLING THEM SOFTLY
    Michael Fassbender in PROMETHEUS
    and the winner here today, McConaughey whose balls were nearly seen due to wardrobe malfunction in MAGIC MIKE.

    and I’m sure there are some balls I haven’t seen yet.

  140. Zach
    December 3, 2012

    Sasha, did you see’s Oprah’s interview with Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, and (separately) Sally Field? It was an hour and a half (that’s including commercials) well spent for fans of Lincoln and these artists.

  141. scary
    December 3, 2012

    Anyone sleep?

  142. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    ngng hathaway for best actress

  143. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    Antoinette

    Nice list. You’ve reminded me why I love the forums on this site!

    Don’t forget:
    Dwight Henry in BOTSW
    Mark Ruffalo in The Avengers
    Bruce Willis in Looper

  144. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    Well, it’s been 25 min since the last award (they’ve averaged 16 min,). They are either on break or battling over best actress(?)

  145. December 3, 2012

    I really don´t get the love/praise for Matthew McConaughey in the awful Magic Mike. He was way better in Bernie, the movie itself it’s great (too bad that Jack Black will go unnoticed), so if he scores an Oscar nomination I hope it would be for the Linklater movie

    Greetings from Argentina, where none of these movies have even premiered in theatres yet :/

  146. Leocdc
    December 3, 2012

    Matthew was great in Bernie. Very, very good movie by the way, with an amazing performance from Jack Black, and a great script.
    I’m loving this awards. They’re against the tides, and that’s brave in this “industry” of critics and awards.

  147. Tim
    December 3, 2012

    Matthew McConaughey received Best Supporting Actor. The end is nigh! I guess I’ll have to had Magic Mike to my “to see” list. The consolation is that they and Oscar seem to think different (since 2000, only 3 winners have gone on to win the Oscar).

    Sally Field really surprises me as well. I would have guessed Anne Hathaway based on all the reviews. Never count out a veteran, I guess.

  148. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Geremy, thanks for the reminder:

    Tom Hiddleston, The Avengers

  149. Larry
    December 3, 2012

    Is Bruce Willis up for Supporting in MOONRISE KINGDOM as well, or is that considered lead? Because I thought he was great in that as well as in LOOPER.

  150. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Gosh – 4 hours in and still nowhere near complete!!!!

  151. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (!!!!)

  152. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    OMG Rachel W – fucking amazing – hope this gets her in the Oscar race

  153. scary
    December 3, 2012

    Best Actress: Rachel Weisz (THE DEEP BLUE SEA)

    Gosh!

  154. Leocdc
    December 3, 2012

    And greetings from Chile, where, as the rest of the non-USA countries, majority of films haven’t been released on cinemas, but at least we have torrent.

    By the way, new award is Best Actress for:
    What!!!??
    Rachel Weisz for “The Deep Blue Sea”. I really didn’t see that coming.

  155. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    The Deep Blue Sea: $1,126,525. A movie only critics saw ;)

  156. December 3, 2012

    Gosh – 4 hours in and still nowhere near complete!!!!

    It’s like they have a meal between every vote. I’m gonna have to leave soon. I guess I can get the tweets.

  157. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    WOWZA! Love Rachel Weisz!

  158. Eric P.
    December 3, 2012

    Guys, the site does not have Weisz as best actress. I just refreshed it like 5 times.

  159. December 3, 2012

    Oh wow. I don’t even like her. lol

  160. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    Brace youselves. DDL is comming.

  161. GoOnNow
    December 3, 2012

    really happy with these people’s choices, they are clearly not trying to satisfy Uncle Oscar but doing their own thing ;)

  162. Gautam
    December 3, 2012

    Just made this important discovery, NYFCC hardly ever gives Best Cinematography or Best Screenplay to the film that eventually wins Best Picture. Basically they try to diversify. So Zero Dark Thirty is not getting Best Picture for sure. My hunch is either it’s Argo or The Master.
    They can’t award Sally Field if they are not going to give Best Actor to DDL. So that’s very evident.

  163. December 3, 2012

    Leocdc: ” but at least we have torrent.” – hahaha, you read my mind (btw, I’m currently rewatching La vida de los peces, I just love Matias Bize filmwork)

    As for Rachel Weisz, she was amazing in that movie, but the movie itself left me cold.

  164. Eric P.
    December 3, 2012

    My bad. I see it now. AWESOME!!!! Fucking love her

  165. Joey
    December 3, 2012

    Ok, I think this is going to turn into one of the best Oscar seasons in the last 10 years. Hell yeah Rachel Weisz!!!

  166. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Well now we know why Rachel was in the Actress round table interviews – they clearly had an idea she would show! And she was so great in the interview too!

  167. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    Could someone tell me what in the world THE DEEP BLUE SEA is? And why I’ve never heard of it?

  168. filmboymichael
    December 3, 2012

    very pleasant surprises today – Weisz was superb in Deep Blue Sea!

  169. Siam
    December 3, 2012

    @Leocdc

    against the tides? They gave it to Sally Field for playing Lincoln’s wife in a Spielberg film. That’s the safest you can get.

  170. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    WOW, Weisz has been making the rounds lately (THR Roundtable, SAG screening etc.) and it clearly paid off, didn’t think, it would. She is now officially back in the game. Not that this secures her a place in the Oscar top5, but it’s definitely a damn good start.

  171. efe
    December 3, 2012

    Rachel Weisz? Wow. Talk about a shocker. Instead of Lawrence, Chastain, Cotillard, and that girl from Beasts of the Southern Wild.

  172. what
    December 3, 2012

    Where did Rachel Weisz come from!?!?!

  173. Robert A.
    December 3, 2012

    Now this is starting to look more like the NYFCC of yesteryear–when they would make some risky and whack choices! The past few years they’ve been playing it a touch safe with their picks.

    Love how the win for Weisz just further complicates an already complicated category.

  174. Candy
    December 3, 2012

    Wow I definitely did not see Rachel Weisz winning at all, let alone being nominated for any award this season.

  175. Omar
    December 3, 2012

    Deep Blue Sea s listed as a 2011 release. How is it even eligible?

  176. Jason
    December 3, 2012

    Uhmmm.. didn’t “Deep Blue Sea” come out last year? Late 2011? Hmmmm…. SMH

  177. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    NYC clearly envies LA Critics their odd choices in Best Actress category :)

  178. December 3, 2012

    btw, you guys are right. Tom Hiddleston and Woody Harrelson were great. And I forgot Frank Grillo in THE GREY. Supporting Actor is always the best. I’m tellin’ ya.

  179. SallyinChicago
    December 3, 2012

    Sorry….where were the noms listed online? Are these the winners? Where’s Beast for first time filmmaker win?

  180. Nic V
    December 3, 2012

    Well so far the only thing that wasn’t a surprise for me has been Amour as Foreign Film. It’s almost like they’re picking one from column A and one from column B. Maybe they’re having lunch in a Chinese Restaraunt.

  181. LillyB45
    December 3, 2012

    These folks are playing with people’s heads.

  182. Joey
    December 3, 2012

    In the previous 10 years (before this year), the only two women to win actress at NYFCC that didn’t get Oscar nominations were Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky and Hope Davis for American Splendor. In the past 10 years, though, only 3 have gone on to win Best Actress at the Oscars. Helen Mirren, Reese Witherspoon, and Meryl Streep.

  183. Gautam
    December 3, 2012

    Just going through reviews of Deep Blue Sea over metacritic will tell you why Weisz won. Every New York based critic just loved her performance and the movie too.

  184. SallyinChicago
    December 3, 2012

    what is NGNG?

  185. Jasper
    December 3, 2012

    The Deep Blue Sea came out in March.

  186. Gautam
    December 3, 2012

    I have seen Deep Blue Sea, and have to say, however good Rachael is in it, the film sucks big time. And therefore I feel she has little to no chance of getting nominated at the Oscar.

  187. Zooey
    December 3, 2012

    When people say stuff like They can’t give it to Sally if they don’t go with DDL, it’s funny.

    Maybe Sally won because of a split.

    It happens all the time with NYFCC. It’s not the Oscars.

  188. SallyinChicago
    December 3, 2012

    Is that Blue Sea movie the one with Daniel Craig? When they met and married? Why is nom’d this year?

  189. d2
    December 3, 2012

    Rachel Weisz could inject some originality and quality into the Best Actress race.

    Best Actress hopefuls-

    Naomi Watts – The Impossible
    Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
    Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
    Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    Judi Dench – Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (secretly for her work in Skyfall)

  190. SallyinChicago
    December 3, 2012

    Hm….where’s the edit button? Here’s the RT rating for Deep Blue Sea?
    http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_deep_blue_sea/

  191. Joey
    December 3, 2012

    That’s Dream House…that abysmal horror movie…

  192. Joey
    December 3, 2012

    Last minute NGNG!!!

    Channing Tatum in Magic Mike!

  193. SallyinChicago
    December 3, 2012

    Is the Deep Blue Sea available to see online? Never heard of this movie.

  194. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    lincoln wins best actor!!!

  195. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Sally,The Deep Blue Sea was one of those ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ art house movies that didn’t hang around long, even for an art house indie.

  196. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    I feel like their goal is to pick awards winners just to shock people. Can’t complain though

  197. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    actor: DDL, Lincoln

  198. Kane
    December 3, 2012

    Wow, between McConaughey and Weisz winning this is what No Guts No Glory is all about! Although (like every other critics groups) the NYFCC will occassionally award people that won’t go any further and they are the big surprises. Secret Lives of Dentists winning screenplay, Samuel L. Jackson and Harry Belafonte winning supporting actor for Jungle Fever and Kansas City. Maybe Weisz will go further…I know McConaughey will.

  199. Josh
    December 3, 2012

    I am beginning to understand something about Lincoln; it is not a DDL film. It is a Steven Spielberg film about Abraham Lincoln that stars DDL. Therefore its success does not depend on DDL himself, but on the director, subject matter and star-studded cast.

    Also, it is not impossible for others in a DDL film to be noticed, men included (see In the Name of the Father).

  200. December 3, 2012

    And the whole world says “DUH!” lol

  201. E
    December 3, 2012

    Actor just went to DDL!!!!!!!!!!!

  202. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    DDL winning should surprise or upset precisely NO ONE.

  203. mecid
    December 3, 2012

    DDLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  204. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    funny how the best actress vote took so long and the best actor vote went so fast…

  205. Calvin
    December 3, 2012

    Everybody knew that DDL had it coming (Rachel, on the other hand…)

  206. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    WOW, I’ve just realized I saw ‘The Deep Blue Sea’ 14 months ago at the London Film Festival. Strange to see it getting recognition NOW. Anyway, absolutely brilliant performance, but I didn’t find the film fascinating…at all.

  207. Gautam
    December 3, 2012

    @ Zooey

    I told you, they can’t award Sally Field without rewarding DDL. It would have have seemed just so odd.

    Now wait for my other prediction which is either Argo or The Master wins Best Picture. It would be clearer once we have the Best Screenplay winner which if it happens to be ZDT, which would make the way for others even more easier.

  208. Kane
    December 3, 2012

    Dane,
    Although I’m not really surprised I half expected Joaquin Phoenix to pull this one off

  209. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    I say Boal wins for screenplay.

  210. Siam
    December 3, 2012

    Well, let’s hope Lincoln doesn’t win best picture then.

  211. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    Well FINALLY!!! I can proudly say that predicted one of the winners today :P

  212. Claudice
    December 3, 2012

    What the… Out of all the top contenders this year including Marion Cotillard, Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Noami Watts and other performances, they awarded the most randomn one? I have nothing against Rachel Weisz but it is really out of nowhere.

  213. hrh
    December 3, 2012

    Right now: Argo and The Master are the only ones that need to be recognized… so… P. T. Anderson as Best director? Argo as best screenplay?…

  214. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    Aaand the DDL-sweep has officially started. I don’t see any other contender winning ANYTHING but the Comedy/Musical Globe, the only scenario he does NOT go all the way, is a potential Les Miserables-sweep, but that film will need to deliver A LOT (reviews, BO, guilds etc.) first.

    Also, Field is now a very viable threat for supposed frontrunner Hathaway. My NGNG pick for the Oscars will be a Sally Field nomination…in lead. I could easily see the Academy pulling a ‘Reader’ on her.

  215. Ryman
    December 3, 2012

    Or let’s DO hope Lincoln wins Best Picture. In fact ANYTHING except Les Mis.

  216. Bharat
    December 3, 2012

    @Ryan Adams
    Did you like The Deep Blue Sea?

  217. kiwi
    December 3, 2012

    At least we all saw Daniel Day Lewis winning. Pretty obvious he is going to take home ALL the awards this season. Everyone backs out when he’s up for any award and critics vote for him no matter what. What was really shocking to me was Rachel winning though.

  218. Leocdc
    December 3, 2012

    @Mily I liked a lot “La vida de los peces”. I’d recommend you to see “Violeta se fue a los cielos”. It’s one of the few chilean films I truly admired. From Argentina I just have seen “Nueve Reinas” and the (IMO) masterpiece “El Secreto de sus Ojos” (really deserved Oscar for best foreign movie, in a notable competitive year in that category).

  219. kjbacon
    December 3, 2012

    Has Django even screened for anyone?

  220. Zach
    December 3, 2012

    Rachel Weisz is a wonderful actress. I haven’t seen her movie, but I hope this at least pushes her into the WEAK Best Actress race. Good for her.

  221. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    DDL – FIVE awards from NYFCC (so far). Four lead and one supporting. Amazing.

  222. unlikely hood
    December 3, 2012

    Phantom – Wrong. The Reader was different. Not sure if Sasha keeps records of these things, but 4 years ago she asked us to cast our own ballots – early, before the noms were even announced. I chose to vote for Winslet as LEAD in The Reader just because that felt right – again, before the noms had come out. (Again, Sasha may have the proof laying around somewhere.)

    Such a move does not feel right this year. Field is in 15 minutes of that film. Comparatively, Witherspoon dominated Walk the Line; Hopkins was in at least 2x that much of Silence of the Lambs. Basically, you’re wrong. Field is going supporting.

    I’d still bet on Hathaway for the win. Field has to lose an Oscar at some point in her career.

  223. CCA
    December 3, 2012

    Very happy for Rachel Weisz win. I saw the film recently and found her performance exquisite. I hope she’ll go all the way to the Oscar nomination. I liked the film. It reminded me of “The End of Romance”, although with a slower pace.

  224. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @kjbacon
    not in new york apparently

  225. Phil Boroff
    December 3, 2012

    I saw “The Deep Blue Sea” both in a theatre and on DVD. Based on a Terence Rattigan play previously filmed with Vivien Leigh, it is quite good, and Ms. Weisz certainly deserves an Oscar nomination for her work.

  226. Yashar
    December 3, 2012

    @SallyinChicago, NGNG is the No Guts, No Glory prediction.

    Back to NYFCC I can’t believe I was watching the THR actress roundtable and told a relative that Weisz is the only one here with ZERO chance of winning anything (Not talking about her performance but about the general buzz and awards talk). So much for my zero.

    Really, REALLY surprised. Heck, so far, most of these awards have been surprising though in a pleasant way.

  227. December 3, 2012

    @Leocdc Thanks for the recommendation, I will watch that film! Yes, I love Matias movies, I had a chance to talk to him (I’m a film critic in my country) in a Chilean festival they did here a few months ago (I also saw En la cama and loved it as well). And yes, Nueve reinas and El secreto de sus ojos are great argentine movies, though I prefer the films of Ezequiel Acuña (Nadar solo, Como un avión estrellado, Excursiones). Watch them if you can!

  228. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    unlikely hood

    As I said…NGNG. But I haven’t seen the film, you have, so if you tell me her screentime is THAT limited, I believe you, thanks for the info.

  229. December 3, 2012

    THE DEEP BLUE SEA is a very good film, directed by Terrence Davies, that bears comparison to adaptation of THE HOUSE OF MIRTH in 2001. Weitz plays a 50s-era woman who suffers a nervous breakdown after her adulterous involvement with a war veteran. It hits MIRTH’s notes of a woman sent into destitution by the strict mores of her times. It might be a bit dull to some, but no one can deny that Weitz is superb in it, as is much of the cast. A deserved win, as is Day-Lewis (this was almost a given; he’s going to end up winning everything for this performance).

  230. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    Woo-hoo Rachel Weisz would be on my Oscar ballot, even though the movie as a whole was a bit tepid for me (and I am a HUGE HUGE Terence Davies fan: I would say The Long Day Closes is easily in my gun-to-the-head Top 20 of all time). I haven’t seen ZD30 or Middle of Nowhere yet, though.

  231. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    Dean: I agree. In an ideal world, Tom Hiddleston & the man who plays Rachel Weisz’s husband should get recognition as well.

  232. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    here we go again the calm before he storm…

  233. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    lincoln wins screenplay!, sweep or swan song?

  234. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    Kushner takes it and (IMO) is on his way to deliver a Sorkin-kind-of sweep. Now BP/BD will be interesting, will NYFCC go all-in and give it to Lincoln/Spielberg OR will they spread the love ?

  235. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln

  236. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Looks like Lincoln will be the big winner – Actor, S Actress and now Screenplay. It should take Director and Film now unless they want to throw a Rachel Weisz curve ball.

  237. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    @Christophe

    Duh Doo… Duh Doo… Duh Doo doo doo doo DOO!

    That’s what it feels like right now

  238. mecid
    December 3, 2012

    Lincoln – 3 yeahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!

  239. SeattleMoviegoer
    December 3, 2012

    one remarkable thing about a DDL win (or even Sally Field) at the Oscars will be the fact that no one has ever won an acting Oscar under Spielberg’s direction. the champ overall is William Wyler, who guided 36 thespians to nominations and 14 winners.

  240. unlikely hood
    December 3, 2012

    Fair enough Phantom – cheers.

    Oscar voters, allow me to paraphrase Tim Curry as Frank-N-Furter in the Rocky Horror Picture Show:

    “You better Weisz up…Rachel Weisz!”

  241. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    @Seattle. That’s incredible! 14 winners. I wonder how far 2nd place is behind Wyler’s record?

  242. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    I sense a change in direction coming. Most critics circles seldom “sweep”.

  243. Julie
    December 3, 2012

    I liked Rachel Weisz in Deep Blue Sea, but didn’t she get nominated and win a few critics’ awards for it LAST YEAR? I feel as if it’s been in InDemand and DVD for a really long time. I think it’s ineligible for any major award consideration this year, no?

  244. Kane
    December 3, 2012

    Well, Clint Eastwood has a heckuva track record with actors. 3 wins for supporting actor and a win for best actress…unless I’m missing a few.

  245. Matt
    December 3, 2012

    I’m thinking Lincoln wins Best Director or Best Film… but not both.

    Watching the winners thus far, I’m anticipating at least one more surprise.

  246. Daniel
    December 3, 2012

    @kasper. I’d say Elia Kazan: 21 nominations, 9 wins.

  247. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Ben Affleck, Argo: Director.

  248. Gautam
    December 3, 2012

    Ok this is interesting. I am 100% sure, Lincoln is not going to sweep this thing. Now that it has got Screenplay, it won’t win Best Pic. I think it’s coming Argo way now. Or is ZDT still breathing under it ??

  249. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    @Daniel. Thanks dude. That makes sense.

  250. steandric
    December 3, 2012

    SLP wrapped up nada! Congratulations!

  251. Evan
    December 3, 2012

    That was an awfully long time spend deliberating what we already figured, Kushner for Lincoln. Speed it up, NYFCC!

  252. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Wow New Yorkers really do hate Spielberg. Shocking. Is ZDT going to get Picture – wowzer!!!!!

  253. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    Kathryn Bigelow YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!

    ZD30 FTW!

  254. Siam
    December 3, 2012

    Now The Master for Best Picture.

  255. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    Kathryn Bigelow pulled it off !!! Now BP will be VERY interesting…ZD30, Lincoln OR something else ?

  256. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    It seems to weird to expect anything other than Lincoln or ZDT announced for Best Film. But I like the idea of either one. Will they go for one or will they shock the world with Les Mis?

  257. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    Wonderful!

  258. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Apologies on my call of Affleck. somebody jumped the gun.

    Fuck. Bigelow???? For fucks sake, Bigelow?

  259. Joseph
    December 3, 2012

    Sasha – You must be loving these awards!

  260. Geremy
    December 3, 2012

    YEEEESSS!! Bigelow is on her way to a second Oscar

  261. Waltizzle!!!
    December 3, 2012

    i’m thinking life of pi takes picture! totes out of left field

  262. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    I think Daniel Day-Lewis just tied Jack Nicholson & Robert DeNiro with most wins in this category, but hasn’t beat their overall record since Jack & Bobby have two wins in supporting, vs. DDL’s one.

  263. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    I call BULL FRAKKING SHIT on Director. Outrageous.

  264. December 3, 2012

    PaulH. Please try not to be Karl Rove for the next 3 months.

  265. Jackson
    December 3, 2012

    wow at Katherine! i am so excited for this movie. I am sure Jessica Chastain will be nominated but not win. i have read her performance is amazing but lacks the big emotional moments. i think besides Meryl, she is the best actress in Hollywood right now. she is simply amazing. I think there is a chance she may become an A LIST box office star if ZDT takes off and her upcoming Mama.

  266. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    PaulH, did you watch Zero Dark Thirty?

  267. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    2009 all over again. And sequels usually are worse than the original. Let this be an aberration, !deity!, OK? Christ almighty, anybody but that hack Bigelow.

  268. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    …aaand Sasha’s BEST-ever-tweet is :

    “Actually love Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty equally so haters can you know, suck it? ”

    :)

  269. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    I don’t believe Zero Dark Thirty is a sequel.

  270. Yashar
    December 3, 2012

    Kinda bummed about Chastain not winning the best actress. Really happy about Bigelow win though. Unless Argo, The Master, SLP or Le Miz make a surprising come back, the best film will go to ZDT (Here, though I am rooting for Chastain / Bigelow for Oscars too).

  271. Daniel
    December 3, 2012

    Can K. Bigelow “pull an Oliver Stone” (Academy awards for directing Platoon and Born on the 4th of July) at the Oscar night?

  272. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    It isn’t released nationally until January 4. But the name Kathryn Bigelow just brings back too many memories of ’09 and how she and her minions snookered everybody into believing The Hurt Locker was a better film than Avatar. Mass osmosis.

  273. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Hard to believe Spielberg has never won and yet Bigelow has TWO!!!!

  274. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    Ummmmm….. because Fern Gully: The Next Rainforest was better than Avatar!

  275. Robert
    December 3, 2012

    @PaulH: do you seriously think Zero Dark Thirty is a sequel to The Hurt Locker?

  276. Mike
    December 3, 2012

    Since “Les Miz” is embargoed until Dec. 10th, was it still eligible to win anything here? Have all of the critics that vote for this seen it yet? Just curious how it works on movies that are embargoed. Was The Hobbit, Lez Mis and Django even eligible? Because if not we really haven’t seen how pre-cursor awards will impact the Oscars yet.

  277. December 3, 2012

    Oh, brother. AVATAR? You mean, the most depressing, empty movie ever made?

  278. Leocdc
    December 3, 2012

    @Mily: I was just seeing your blog and FB. Great to see a film critic around the neighborhood. I will look for the films you’ve recommend me, including “En la Cama”.
    And what are your favourite movies you’ve seen this 2012? (I think those could resemble more my tastes than all of this top 10 lists of movies I haven’t seen). Anyway, torrent and cuevana FTW.

  279. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @GlennUK
    exactly, that’s why all this awards business is fun but doesn’t mean a thing at the end of the day…. at the end of the day!

  280. dave
    December 3, 2012

    kinda random but does anyone know how Knightley’s chances for a nomination are and is there still buzz? Also how did the AK screening go for the AMPAS??

  281. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    PaulH

    Watch ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ before trashing it, also consider the possibility that it becomes a Box Office hit, what then ? How will your ‘Bigelow is a hack because her film didn’t make money’ theory or your even more general ‘only blockbusters deserve Oscars’ theory will fly ?

  282. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    @PaulH
    “Mass osmosis.”

    Is this your argument against “The Hurt Locker” and in favor “Avatar”? SERIOUSLY?

  283. preacher
    December 3, 2012

    @PaulH

    The Hurt Locker was a better movie than Avatar.

    Unfortunately there were several movies that were superior to both of those (A Single Man, An Education, Inglourious Basterds).

  284. unlikely hood
    December 3, 2012

    Kasper: Yeah, you can’t see it until you’ve seen Zero Dark 15, otherwise you’ll just be confused.

  285. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    I sincerely doubt the over 70 year old white men of AMPAS will be ready to hand a second Oscar to a woman. And the same woman at that! Not happening!

  286. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    No, Robert, I don’t think ZD30 is a Hurt Locker sequel; i was suggesting a sequel in its path to THL in this awards season only. Just to clarify.

  287. Elton Almeida
    December 3, 2012

    BigelozZzZzZzZz

    LincozZzZzZzZzZz

    Bitch, please! What year is today?

  288. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    ZDT wins Best Film!

    Much better picks than last year, guys!

  289. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    twitter joke: bigelow best MILFmaker of the year!

  290. Leocdc
    December 3, 2012

    It’s interesting to notice that they just needed 12 minutes to give Bigelow that award. Still believe Lincoln can win its 4 prize today.

  291. December 3, 2012

    @Leocdc Thanks! :)

    I’m actually trying to make a Top Five for my blog but it’s getting difficult since I haven’t seen many of the major films we talk about here (I can´t find a decent torrent of The Master, which is the film I am most looking forward to see, being a Paul Thomas Anderson fan and all); and also many of the films I watched and liked a lot are from last year (Like Crazy and Take This Waltz, for instance), but just to name a few: Bernie, Argo, The Five-Year Engagement (seriousy underrated), Your Sister’s Sister and Safety Not Guaranteed

    How about you?

  292. kasper
    December 3, 2012

    GOOD CALL SASHA!

  293. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Grrr. Aargh.

    *headdesk*

  294. J
    December 3, 2012

    ZDT wins bp

  295. Maxim
    December 3, 2012

    And what a pretentious waste of time that was!

  296. Zach
    December 3, 2012

    Guess ZDT is more than just a Chastain vehicle (LOL at that).

  297. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    dave

    I think Keira Knightley is widely considered as a top10 contender a.k.a. definitely not a sure thing for a nomination, but wouldn’t be shocking if she made the cut in the end. What might help her case is that her previous Wright-films both overperformed at the Oscars : she scored the Best Actress nod for ‘Pride & Prejudice’ without a SAG or even a BAFTA nod, and then Atonement pulled off picture, writing, acting nominations without any significant guild love. So if the Academy once again loved the Wright/Knightley collaboration MORE than the other organizations, the film – and especially Knightley – COULD surprise. But considering that unlike those films, it is a divisive, love/hate experience, they might be more easily persuaded IF Knightley had stronger precursors this time around…at least two nominations from the SAG/BAFTA/HFPA/BFCA quartet. For now, I think she could pull off the BAFTA/HFPA nods.

  298. Ryman
    December 3, 2012

    YES! Zero Dark Thirty!

    Suck it PaulH. Avatar was a Razzie winner in comparison to any Bigelow film.

  299. TB
    December 3, 2012

    0dark30 maybe a great film, but I bet anyone out there 100 bucks it won’t win bp at the oscars.

  300. Film Fatale
    December 3, 2012

    Mike- The embargo is only for reviews, tweets, publicly stated opionions, etc. LES MISERABLES is, and was, most certainly eligible for voting/winning in any category and the entire body of the NYFCC has seen it.

  301. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Well Bigelow brought her movie out at the last minute and it worked for New York. No love for Argo, Les Miz, SLP, The Master. BUT this is only the beginning of the season. Until we have half a dozen more critic circle results nothing is set in stone. And the critics can say what they like …. it all comes down to the Guilds, if you ask me. So we are in for one hell of a long ride. Loved some of those results today tho. Go Sally …… Go Rachel!!!!

  302. Jerry
    December 3, 2012

    I knew New York critics HAD to vote for the film about bringing down Osama Bin Laden so I at least got Best Picture and Bigelow as Best Director correct. Only other one I got was best foreign film. Better luck guessing L.A. critics.

  303. Daveylow
    December 3, 2012

    I know I’m in the minority but I didn’t love The Hurt Locker but now I have to see Zero Dark Thirty, I guess.

  304. Christopher
    December 3, 2012

    Ryan-Do you know how Les Mis factored in here? Had the critics all seen it?? Was in consideration? I am a little shocked it didn’t take anything at all. Very curious!

  305. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    WOW,

    Les Miserables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Argo
    Life of Pi

    completely shut out !

  306. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    Apparently the Les Mis screening in New York wasn’t as orgasmic as reported!

  307. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Glad to see these awards shake out the way they did even though I would have preferred some alternate awardwinners. Just had a feeling that if Lincoln won BestPic/Director it would have been the start of a sweep. As for now, this win for ZDT keeps things interesting. Of course, if it wins everything this week, it may not be interesting for long. But I doubt that will happen.

  308. JP
    December 3, 2012

    Sasha is probably very happy today. Her two favorites started very strong.

  309. Akumax
    December 3, 2012

    Go Kathryn go!

  310. Matt O'Callaghan
    December 3, 2012

    @Mily – as a serious fan of PT Anderson myself, I can’t wait for a good torrent to become available so I can watch the glorious 70mm on my iPod.

  311. Yogsss
    December 3, 2012

    This was just the push ZD30 needed, but let’s wait for more critics before we call it the sure thing for BP. I personally think is not happening. Lincoln won big also at NYFCC. Sad for both Argo and The Master.

  312. Bob Burns
    December 3, 2012

    excellent result. love to see these two come out on top the rest of the awards.

  313. danemychal
    December 3, 2012

    daveylow – I thought it was pretty good, especially well-directed and realistically tense (and authentic) action sequences. But Inglorious Basterds was a superior film, especially in terms of the script (Tarantino was robbed).

    Zero Dark Thirty looks to be on a different level. Most people are saying it’s easily better than THL. And the procedural nature of it right up my alley (Zodiac was my favorite film in a crowded 2007). Plus, the subject here isn’t a psychologically damaged soldier — it’s the hunt for the most notorious man on the planet. I AM SO THERE.

  314. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    Will they release the 2nd/3rd places ?

  315. December 3, 2012

    @Matt O’Callaghan

    Of course I would prefer to watch it at the cinema, but we have to wait an eternity here and it’s getting frustrating reading all the reviews about and having to wait so long. Or maybe is my anxiety speaking.

  316. Raygo
    December 3, 2012

    ZDT not an acting vehicle, so no win for Chastain. I’d like to see BA come down to Rachel Weisz Keira Knightly.

  317. Josh
    December 3, 2012

    What we learned today:

    *Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are in the driver’s seat for Best Pic

    *Les Miz losing a ‘lock’ with Hathaway is a baaaaaaad sign for things for that movie. Poo poo that all you want but it’s true.

    *All acting races besides best actor are pretty wide open with a few ‘locks’ in each catetory. That should be fun.

  318. Jerry Grant
    December 3, 2012

    It is becoming increasingly clear that the two best movies of the year are “Lincoln” and “Zero Dark Thirty”. My guess is that over the coming weeks, “Les Miz,” “Silver Linings,” and “Argo” will all look increasingly minor in comparison to the magnitude of these two films.

    Other prediction: Expect “Django” to enter the BP nom mix!

  319. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    This does not have to mean anything oscarwise. The NY Critics have given the Best Picture and Best Director award to the same movie lots of times. And quite often that didn’t mean bupkis – “The Social Network”, “Far From Heaven”, “Topsy-Turvy”, “L.A. Confidential”, “The Player”. So no worries “Lincoln” fans, you still may be satisfied at the end of the season.

  320. Calvin
    December 3, 2012

    1- I do not believe that AMPAS is going to reward Bigelow again so soon and for very similar movies (sorry if they are not, I haven’t watched 0D30).
    2- Where are the runner-ups?

  321. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @danemychal
    inglourious was the closest thing to an oscar movie tarantino could ever make, too bad the academy missed this once in a lifetime opportunity to reward him

  322. MattY
    December 3, 2012

    Any one else feel like Argo could be losing its thunder to ZD30?

  323. Leocdc
    December 3, 2012

    @Mily My most anticipated movie of 2012 was TDKR and The Master, but the new trailers of Django have made me change my mind. Anyway, The Master is a close second (I’m also a fan of PTA, easily one of the best directors working today, and the mastermind behind TWBB, the best film of last decade, IMO).
    I saw Bernie the other day while I was travelling on bus. I was totally surprised by that one. My top 10 of this year are (in order): Looper, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild (you have to see that one! :D ), TDKR, the beautiful and brilliant “Monsieur Lazhar” from Canada, The Secret World of Arriety, Lawless, End of Watch, The Grey (my favourite underrated movie of the year) and The Raid Redemption (pure action joy). How did you see Safety? Your Sister’s Sister is great as well (by little, is out of my top 10).
    I’ll see Five-Year-Engangement.
    Thanks for sharing your top 5 :D

  324. therealmike
    December 3, 2012

    @Matt O´Callaghan: Wow, my brain works in crazy ways. I was pretty sure I read “theatre” instead of “torrent”. But then your comment made me read it again. Weird. I´m not shocked someone uses torrents as moviesource and I certainly don´t judge them, but to write something like that on this site makes me sad. Mily, please go.

  325. Wellington
    December 3, 2012

    Rachel Weisz… Look at that! But I don’t think this will say much to the academy.

    About best picture NEITHER… I don’t see the Academy going “The Hurt Locker – Part II”

    Award for Matthew McConaughey… Are you kidding me? He’s so annoying in “Magic Mike”.

    And finnaly I get my confirmation that Tim Burton WILL win his first Oscar next year with Frankenweenie! :)

  326. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Don’t get your panties in a bunch – These years the eventual Best Pic Oscar Winner got no awards at NY Film Critics

    2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
    2005 – Crash
    2002 – Chicago
    2001 – A Beautiful Mind
    2000 – Gladiator
    1999 – American Beauty
    1997 – Titanic
    1996 – The English Patient
    1995 – Braveheart
    1994 – Forest Gump
    1990 – Dances With Wolves

    So Les Miz, Argo, Life of Pi, The Master, Django Unchained, The Impossible supporters shouldn’t be in a panic just yet.

  327. Jerry Grant
    December 3, 2012

    @MattY
    “Argo” already lost its thunder with “Lincoln,” but now with “ZDT” it’s become clear that it will not be the one to rise to the top. Good as it is, “Argo” simply looks minor in comparison to those two.

  328. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    Can’t believe it’s already over for Les Mis before it even began…. I just wanted some buzz for it to still exist by the time it came out. All but dead now.

  329. ZeroDarkJess
    December 3, 2012

    WOW. NFCC had no love for “Les Miserables”. I wonder what this will say about its future as far as awards go. The trailer for “ZDark30″ didn’t impress me that much and the thought of such an important event being fictionalized by Hollywood doesn’t impress me either but I suppose I will see the film any way for entertainment purposes if for no other reason. Glad to see “Lincoln” do so well. I still think as far as OSCAR goes “Lincoln” is the film to beat. BTW, Stone’s assessment of the marvelous film “The Dark Knight Rises” is dead on.

  330. Koleś
    December 3, 2012

    One more thing. Keep in mind that “All the president’s men” also won for best film and director over here.

  331. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @rufus
    I do get the Titanic vibe from Les Miz (fangirls et al.) oscar season is far from over ;)

  332. ZeroDarkJess
    December 3, 2012

    Sorry. That should be NYFC.

  333. Jerm
    December 3, 2012

    The wins of Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor and possibly Actress will probably not translate to wins for Oscar….just saying.

  334. Evan
    December 3, 2012

    I might be worried if I’m The Master, Rufus. Of the films you list, only The English Patient and American Beauty are critics’ movies. The rest were big crowd-pleasers (I’ll count ABM since many people seem to like it, though it’s not uplifting in any regard).

    I think The Master has been schooled this season, unfortunately.

  335. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    no love for Moonrise Kingdom either :(

  336. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Watching all of these people making sweeping declarations based on these awards is making me kind of annoyed, and not in a good way.

    You people (it took me great willpower to not use “idiots” there) need to realize this is merely step 1 of probably close to 20 steps. Nothing can be inferred from this. Nothing.

    So when all of you continue to make a new set of sweeping statements on Wednesday when the NBR announces and then yet again on Friday when LA announces, all I have to sing to you is “It’s not gonna stop until you wise up.” And may a frog land on your keyboard.

  337. ZeroDarkJess
    December 3, 2012

    The thought that “Les Miserables” could be another “Titanic” with moviegoers and thus with OSCAR voters is very much a possibility. I remember “LA Confidential” won all but one, I believe, Critics group awards that year only to be sunk by the late addition of “Titanic” to the mix. OSCAR voters got pulled in. I haven’t seen “Les Miserables” or “ZD30″ but as of now I am hoping it doesn’t happen to “Lincoln”. Of course, if Day-Lewis, Field, Jones and Kushner get the OSCAR I wouldn’t be at all upset if it did happen.

  338. Jerry
    December 3, 2012

    @Jerry Grant:
    This is ONE critics group, can’t make any conclusion about the race based on one critic’s group. New York was always going to vote for the 9/11-Osama Bin Laden film. No brainer. You still have other critics groups and of course the Guilds. It’s hubris to write off Les Miz, Argo, SLP, Life of Pi based on what one regional critics group thinks.

  339. December 3, 2012

    @therealmike I’ll go, or maybe you can come to Argentina, where most of the movies are nowhere near of being screened – that if they are even screened at all – and you don´t have a chance of seing them. I don´t want use other methods to watch them, but I’m telling it like it is here. Now that is sad.

    @Leocdc I totally forgot TDNR! Yeah, it’s also on my Top Ten list ;)
    As for Safety…I’m probably not telling you how I watched it because it seems to offend people around here

  340. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    It’s hard not to think though that Les Mis died today. Being completely shut out in a city where it was reported to have been received very well is a diaster. It’s not an LA type film so it won’t win there. It’s down to the NBR to save it from a shocking early death.

    If you think I’m wrong, feel free to tell me why you think that.

  341. Laquifa Wadley
    December 3, 2012

    Suck on that right-wingers!

    Thanks President Obama!!!!

  342. Josh
    December 3, 2012

    I am with you LSUduck. The face Hathaway didn’t win in the city where this beloved musical has lived for so long, and supposed cheers and tears were all over the place in screenings, it IS noteworthy and a big red flag.

  343. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    Josh, it just hurts me to see this happen before the film even comes out. My excitement may be dying along with the film itself…

  344. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    rufussondheim

    True, all contenders are good for now, IF one misses the respective guild AND the Bafta nod (both have a lot of Academy voters), now THEN the contender in question can start worrying…but BAFTA nominations are still a month away, so no need to write down anyone just yet. If I learned anything today it is NOT to write down ANYONE before January, especially not in November…Rachel Weisz taught me that.

  345. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @mily
    i don’t approve but i understand. American movies/tv shows should be released/broadcast day and date around the world, that would help fight against piracy big time.

  346. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Gee, LSU Duck, I think I told you why you are completely off-base in a recent post. Or are you one to just read what you post and skip over everything of substance?

  347. December 3, 2012

    @Christophe Yeah, exactly. I will gladly pay for my ticket, or travel and watch films on the big screen (Submarine, for instance, one of my favourite films of the past few years didn´t even screened here and I would have loved it to see in a theatre)

  348. PJ
    December 3, 2012

    Now I really wish I had waited. Would have done better in contest by adding ZDT.

  349. Scottish Jellyfish
    December 3, 2012

    Finally! Some excellent news. Other than the current overwhelming positive response to Zero Dark Thirty.

  350. ZeroDarkJess
    December 3, 2012

    I can’t comment on Hathaway performance in “Les” because I haven’t seen it but I can say that little amiable Sally Field is surprisingly powerful and mesmerizing in her performance as Mary Todd Lincoln.

  351. Matt O'Callaghan
    December 3, 2012

    “these awards is making me kind of annoyed, and not in a good way…”

    My coffee just came out my nose.

  352. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    phantom, I wouldn’t write anyone off until after the Globe nominations are announced. And with 10 pictures and Actresses and Actors getting nommed that day, I’m guessing most people we are discussing now will still be in the mix.

    Although by the end of the week if films like The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom get no mentions then seeing them as a BP nominee is a bit of a stretch.

  353. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @LSUduck
    Les Miz will be a commercial success whatsoever. it doesn’t matter much if it doesn’t click with critics, even if it fails to win oscars (it’ll get nominated thx to british mafia), hooper can live with it.

  354. Jerry Grant
    December 3, 2012

    @Jerry
    You’re right, it’s not proof of any sort, just a prediction. My sense is that that the high quality of “Lincoln” and “ZDT” is extremely robust–that is, it is evident from a variety of sources, and seems unlikely to go away. They are each good enough such that their support will last and will broaden. “Argo” and “Life of Pi,” as much as I loved each, could slip downwards.

    Ultimately, I think Lincoln-ZDT-Les Miz will have a three-way shoot-out, and “Lincoln” will ultimately prevail.

  355. Film Fatale
    December 3, 2012

    Raygo, wake up. I’ve seen Zero Dark Thirty and it definitely IS an acting vehicle for Chastain — start reading what’s being said about her performance — there is a lot.

  356. ZeroDarkJess
    December 3, 2012

    My biggest gripe with all these film awards is that these awards are being announced and handed out without all the films having being released to the general public. This should be an outrage.

  357. Reform the Academy
    December 3, 2012

    Well, we can be thankful at least PTA and/or The Master didn’t win!

  358. superkk
    December 3, 2012

    definitely did not see magic mike, nor do i really intend too haha but im happy for matthew. although i thought he was great in killer joe. all around very surprising and great choices!! great start to a hopefully unpredictable race. hopefully the adding of the hobbit and django will spice things up even more.

  359. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    rufussondheim,

    The problem is though that Les Mis was expected to win with Anne. Slumdog and many of those other shut-out films did not have any “locks” heading into the NYFCC. Also, almost none of those had the alleged NYC reaction Les Mis supposedly had but apparently actually did not have.

  360. Free
    December 3, 2012

    I hope Weisz relishes this win, because it will probably be the biggest one she gets all year for The Deep Blue Sea. I wouldn’t even bet on a nomination at this point.

  361. Jack Traven II
    December 3, 2012

    Too sad Argo didn’t win a thing. I hope it’s not a bad sign.

  362. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Yes, ZDJ, I too am outraged that these awards are being announced before the films are released.

    At leat it made me forget about the Death Camps in the Congo.

  363. Eric P.
    December 3, 2012

    Loving the “Magnolia” reference above

  364. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    I don’t think anyone ever said that Anne Hathaway was a lock for NY Film Critics award. And if they did, they can keep you company in the Awards Prediction Beginner’s Lounge.

  365. Ernst Dante
    December 3, 2012

    Of course Les Miserables is not out of the running. It’ll win Best Musical/Comedy at the Globes (with Silver Lining Playbook being its main competition, but SLP’s relatively weak box office will hurt its chances) and set up a battle with Lincoln (or Zero Dark Thirty). Les Miserables is such a crowd-pleaser (unless the buzz at sneak peeks were a facade) like King’s Speech I think it has a good chance of winning. TKS didn’t win NYFCC in 2010 either (though Colin Firth did win an acting award). Looking more like Best Director will be a repeat winner (Bigelow, Spielberg, or Hooper)

  366. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    rufussondheim,

    I don’t think I saw a single prediction say anything besides Anne Hathaway. Even Sasha had her winning over Sally if I’m not mistaken.

    Also, I’ve been doing the awards following/predicting thing for almost 10 years now thank you very much.

  367. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    Good god – all this talk about so-and-so’s race being over. This is the first face-off of a very long game in a very good year and you can bet that Boston, LA, NSFC, etc are all going to spread the love around.

    I’m guessing, by the time we get to the Oscar noms, people who rely on “guidance” to choose what they like and what to vote for won’t be able to tell their asses from their elbows because there won’t be any clear winner.

    We still have a 5/6 film race for the lead. All but one of the acting categories are wide open. Take a breath and get ready because it’s going to be an exciting couple of weeks.

  368. Patryk
    December 3, 2012

    Thrilled for Bigelow, Day-Lewis and Field. In a just world, they all repeat at the Oscars.

  369. Jeremy
    December 3, 2012

    Man, the way some of ya’ll reacting in here is like your first Oscar race. I bet your thought the election was over when Romney looked much better then Obama in that first debate, too.

    Argo aint winning shit, though. It never could.

  370. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    You all keep telling me Les Mis isn’t dead but if it doesn’t win in LA (and it won’t) wouldn’t a loss at the NBR basically leave it with no buzz whatsoever? Hard to win with little to no critical buzz. At least TKS was the presumed runner up behind TSN through the critics awards. Right now Les Mis isn’t even that…it’s in third at best.

  371. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    At the end of the day, oscar voters rule the day, no matter what critics say!
    Oh my I should write a musical…

  372. Radich
    December 3, 2012

    I don’t give a damn if winning the NYFCC means nothing at first, I’m happy. I want Lincoln to win the major ones in all of the awards, but even if all it gets is BA and screenplay in the end, I will die a happy woman. :)

    Congrats to all the (first) winners of this awards season. This will be a great one!!!! :D

  373. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    Jeremy,

    I know…it’s far from my first…I just need to step away from the ledge. The Sally Field win just absolutely stunned me.

  374. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    rufussondheim

    As for Les Miserables, I don’t think it needs to deliver much to land a BP nomination at this point BUT I do think it will need plenty to become a viable top5 contender/potential runner-up/frontrunner :

    1. Excellent reviews (82+ Metacritic)
    2. Excellent Box Office (100M+ US)
    3. Perfect Guild Track Record (PGA-DGA-WGA-SAG Ensemble nominations)
    4. At least 3 acting nominations INCLUDING Best Actor
    5. Strong precursor-love in the technical categories

    If it misses ANY of those, say ‘only’ gets good reviews (70s MC) OR ‘only’ makes WarHorse-numbers (80ish US) OR fails to receive a crucial guild nod (WGA could be its trickiest one) OR the Academy doesn’t consider its lead seriously, it won’t come even close…mainly because Lincoln ALREADY has all those in the bag.

    What continues to fascinate me about a potential Lincoln/LesMiz battle is the simple fact that latter STILL has the potential to best former in crucial aspects (90s MC, 200M+ US, more than 3 acting nominations etc.).

    And now with ZD30 getting excellent early word and awards, all I can say is : FINALLY ! FINALLY an exciting Oscar Season…it has been a while.

  375. superkk
    December 3, 2012

    i cant believe so many of you all are crying because hathaway LOST ONE AWARD. BOOHOO. did you expect her to sweep basically every little thing possible? that would just make things very boring and then youd all be crying about how predictable things are. cant think of when an actor has done that. even monique didnt win every.single.award and she gave a hell of a performance. seriously quit you alls crying, its JUST the beginning. geesh!

  376. Ricardo
    December 3, 2012

    McConaughey should be one of the frontrunner’s for any acting award this year because of…Killer Joe. Not Magic Mike nor Bernie. Only Joaquin was as good as him. He’s simply amazing as Joe. I was very surprised by his work.

    Very interested in seeing Zero Dark. Let’s hope Bigelow upped her game from the very very very fictional Hurt Locker. A good movie but very unrealistic. Military advisors that worked on that movie should never be allowed to work again. Its embarrassing.

  377. steve50
    December 3, 2012

    “Hard to win with little to no critical buzz.”

    What? Not at all! Check the list of BP Oscar winners against the critics winners for the same years. Critical “buzz” is really coincidence – especially for a musical or an epic.

  378. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    OK stepping back from the cliff…. (begins to rock back and forth in a corner) Les Mis will be like Titanic…Les Mis will be like Titanic… haha

  379. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    And to the ones who think Hathaway is now in trouble, think again! Octavia Spencer WON the OSCAR/SAG/BAFTA/GOLDENGLOBE/CRITICS CHOICE quintet without winning NYFCC, actually she was barely present during the critics’ group – phase and then BAMM. As influential as these early awards might seem, their impact on the Oscar-race is usually nothing compared to the Guilds and even the BAFTA and HFPA.

  380. December 3, 2012

    @rufus That list you got there includes mostly the sucky winners. That’s not good news.

  381. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    phantom, I generally agree with your assessment, although a hard and fast 82 on Metacritic is not as necessary, I think. We all know about Crash, but Beautiful Mind got a 72. Braveheart and Gladiator are in the 60′s. Now I don’t necessarily trust this score since this is a fairly new Benchmark/Stat that was probably not relevant when any of these picks won.

    But, still, I get your general gist.

    I think if Les Miz fails to make the top 10 list on NBR’s Wednesday announcment, then I think that could be a sign of things to come. But I give that such a small chance of happening right now since Les Miz is a film that’s right up their alley. It might even win.

    —-

    Oh, and LSUDuck, how old are you? Just curious.

  382. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    I know Antoinette!

    I just think, though, that there’s a real shot at a truly good movie still winning Best Pic this year that didn’t get a mention today. After all, only 2 of the Big Guns won an award today. Make that 3 if you think Magic Mike is a Big Gun.

    ——-

    What’s interesting to me about the Golden Globes Award is the potential Best Drama Film winner.

    SLP and Les Miz will be in Musical/Comedy.

    But then films that seem most likely to win would the Drama (Lincoln, Argo, and Zero Dark Thirty) are all films that center around American History. And this is the FOREIGN PRESS.

    Which makes me think little ol’ Life of Pi might just sneak in and get a win. Not sure how the calendar works out but that might just be a development that could throw a wrinkle into the mix (which would probably be a push for Les Miz)

  383. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @rufus
    the artist didn’t win anything at NBR! didn’t even make their top 10. Critics awards are just what they are: critics awards, sometimes they coincide with the oscars sometimes they don’t. end of story.

  384. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @myself
    the artist made the NBR list! Learn how to read dumbass!

  385. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    Cannot believe some of the things I read on here. Already the season is over for some people after the FIRST critic group gives its awards. I have three words for you naysayers – THE SOCIAL NETWORK. Lincoln and ZDT can receive every single critic award going for the next 6 weeks – means very little these days. It’s the Guilds where it all happens. The critics hope they can influence but they truly haven’t done for a while. And if the Academy wants feel good then damn it they WILL have feel good.

  386. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    rufussondheim,

    I am 24. I know I am acting like a child today…I know…

    Anyway, I’ve been following the awards circuit like a mad man through high school. Love this time of year.

    Also, fwiw, Andrew O’hehir of Salon said Anne was “pretty darn close” to winning today. Possible runner up?

  387. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Yes, Christope, I 100% aqree with you.

    The only thing these early critics awards can do is bring someone into the mix that wasn’t there before. Not getting a mention doesn’t really hurt you.

    But Matt McConaughey got a nice push today. For the critics to mention an actor that’s never been considered Oscar Bait, especially over such people as Robert DeNiro, is a big surprise and such a development probably shouldn’t be ignored. But what works against him is that it wasn’t for one film. So the impact is ultimately limited at this point in the game.

    the Rachel Weisz win throws her into the conversation. But since it’s a small film that’s mostly forgotten, well, who knows. I think if she can get a Golden Globe nomination as well then she will become a viable candidate. And getting a GG nom is not out of the question since a good portion of the HFPA is English.

  388. December 3, 2012

    Best Picture is now a two horse race between LINCOLN and ZERO DARK THIRTY

  389. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    one more frog just fell to an early death

  390. keifer
    December 3, 2012

    I’m actually quite surprised at some of the picks out of this group.

    I think Rachel Weiz came out of nowhere, as did Mathew McConaughey. Somebody else on the web mentioned his work in “Killer Joe”, which I think undoubtedly helped him with this group, i.e., showed off his versatility in 2012.

    I was surprised as well by no mention of “Argo” in any of the awards (perhaps it scored in “runner-up” voting).

    I liked the mention of Greig Fraser for Best Cinematography, but they got the film wrong. His work on “Snow White and the Huntsman” was far superior. He deserved the award, but for SWATH instead of “Zero Dark Thirty”. Just an observation.

  391. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    I meant to say “SINCE high school” a few comments ago. Time to step away from the laptop.

  392. Bryce Forestieri
    December 3, 2012

    Unlike most of ya’ll peoples I have NOT seen ZERO DARK THIRTY cuz I ain’t important like that, but if the movie is just as good or better than THE HURT LOCKER, I sure don’t mind the love!

  393. John Oliver
    December 3, 2012

    I am so happy for Sally Field. When it was announced that she would play Mary-I immediately saw Oscar nomination.
    What is going to help her is how she won the role-a very funny story.

  394. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @DanAshcroft
    If you’re looking for trouble, you’ve come to the right place :@

  395. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    Apparently Weisz was an accidental win according to Lou Lumenick. Chastain and Lawrence tied for the win on the third ballot forcing a fourth ballot which Weisz somehow won on. Wow!

    http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/movies/linings_playbook_thirty_lincoln_Mjl8pWpUK3uLGFUQhmR6mO#axzz2E1uoBD8y

    I would still love to see the alternates/runner ups for the other categories though.

  396. Denni
    December 3, 2012

    Not worrie about the outcome! It’s the critics. There’s been plenty of times The Academy went a different route. Les Mis, Anne, The Master, Jennifer Lawrence and silver linings playbook are all still in the running! IT’S NOT OVER UNTIL IT’S OVER!!!!

  397. Broadwayjayb
    December 3, 2012

    Very Interesting! J

  398. Jerry
    December 3, 2012

    @LSUduck: interesting about the Lawrence-Chastain vote split. I thought they would go completely for Chastain. So if this happens with the guilds both Chastain and Lawrence lose allowing a third party like maybe Riva to win the final prize. As much as people on this site would like to see Chastain as different than Lawrence because they don’t think Lawrence’s character is a good female role model, they look the same on paper: attractive, young, White, respected actress, prior nominee. So there will be splits in the hot young actress demographic.

  399. Denni
    December 3, 2012

    Lol! Charlize’s “Monster” character is not a good role model yet it won. So did Natalie’s “Black Swan”…

  400. Aaron
    December 3, 2012

    Good lord, all of this fatalistic, hyperbolic ranting going around here is ridiculous. It’s only the first critics awards and there’s still a million more to go. Some people saying “All but dead now” for Les Miz…wtf? Is it really that surprising a musical didn’t score well with critics? Even back in 2002, Chicago wasn’t a huge critics awards magnet (Far From Heaven was the huge one that year, if I remember correctly, as well as Adaptation and The Pianist), but it still won the best picture Oscar.

    Frankly, if anything I am excited for the rest of the season so far, because many of these choices were entirely unexpected (Rachel Weisz? WTF? So excited for her but I did not see that coming). I’m even surprised ZDT/Bigelow pulled out a win so early. But everyone shouldn’t get their panties in a wad just yet, because it’s still so early. I have a feeling LAFCA will go their own merry way and put their weight behind something like Amour or The Master, or perhaps Beasts of the Southern Wild.

  401. Calvin
    December 3, 2012

    Joaquin Phoenix for Actor, Naomi Watts for Actress, Robert DeNiro for Supporting Actor and Helen Hunt for Supporting Actress. It’ll not happen, and I don’t want it to, but THAT would leave some people veeeery upset :D

  402. Reno
    December 3, 2012

    Hope Rachel Weisz makes it all the way to the Oscars.

  403. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    Anyone calling Les Mis dead at this point is not very smart, I say. I am happy about today’s outcome and I feel bad that Les Mis didn’t get anything. Mainly because I have huge respect for Rufus who is rooting for it. But let’s just see, Les Mis is going to be on MANY future lists/award shows (incl. Oscars).

    Btw, I don’t even know why I’m “Camp Lincoln” without seeing any of these films yet. Oh yeah, I’m a Spielberg fan. Yes. I know it has to be good because I have liked his lesser ones, too.

  404. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    This is going to be an ugly year in comment sections all over. I try to be kind, and I apologise beforehand for being mean.

  405. DaneM
    December 3, 2012

    I respect Rufus, too, but he is clearly biased towards musicals. I mean, his name has “Sondheim” in it! This might be the only guy on this board who is still stoked that Chicago won BP.

    Once. Now there’s a musical I would have liked to see nominated. Unfortunately it was too small, had no prestige, and came along during the best year in film since 1994 (2007). The Best Original Song Oscar was enough for me.

  406. SallyinChicago
    December 3, 2012

    I wish the Academy would change it’s staid old fashioned categories. My god people this is 2012. Why isn’t there a “best child actor” category? How about a “first feature film” category? How about a best comic actor category?
    These are the reasons some of us don’t watch the Awards show anymore, because they are so 1950s.

  407. Bud
    December 3, 2012

    McConaughey is he biggest surprise to me. I was thinking he would be a player next year for “Dallas Buyers Club”. At least he is beginning to move away from those ridiculous date flicks he has been doing for the last few years.
    I know I will get some hate for this but I really doubt DDL will be picking up his 3rd Oscar for Lincoln. I am not the only one that thought he was almost campy in some scenes. He made me feel like I was watching one of those old robots at Disneyland.

  408. Mark F.
    December 3, 2012

    I wouldn’t say that anything is a “frontrunner” yet based on one critic’s group. Looks like “Zero Dark Thirty” has a good shot at a BP nomination though. We all knew “Lincoln” would be a contender already.

    I think “Argo” wins LA.

  409. PaulH
    December 3, 2012

    Dean: “Oh, brother. AVATAR? You mean, the most depressing, empty movie ever made?”

    The one that made 3/4ths of a BILLION dollars in North America alone? That would be the opposite of depressing, and theaters were not even close to empty for months back then ;)

  410. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Thanks for the love, but let me be clear, while Chicago was a fun little romp through divaland, it wouldn’t rank in my top ten for that year.

    A quick non-scientific perusal of my top 10 for that year would include, in no specific order

    Dirty Pretty Things
    The Son
    Russian Ark
    Talk to Her
    Infernal Affairs
    Irreversible
    Rodger Dodger
    About a Boy
    In This World
    The Quiet American

    Outside of Talk to Her, I don’t think any of these were nominated in any category. (I could be wrong)

    Right now, of the films I’ve seen, I would want The Perks of Being a Wallflower to win. Of the big films, for political reasons, I do want Les Miz to win, not because I think it will be the Best Pic, but because I am hoping that more musicals might get filmed as a result.

  411. rufussondheim
    December 3, 2012

    Avatar is a shit movie. 57 Million People voted for Mitt Romney, a shit candidate and probably an even shittier person.

    Quantity is not quality.

  412. g
    December 3, 2012

    Wow I’m completely dashed! I can’t believe some of the winners..big surprises. I’m so happy for Sally Field, DDL, and Tony!

  413. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    Yeah, Avatar is easily one of the worst Blu-rays I own. Normally I wouldn’t stand anything like that, but after next year’s True Lies and The Abyss, I’m only waiting for my Piranha II and then I have all James Cameron films on BD. Piranha II would be my worst film, beating Avatar and a few other guilty pleasures.

    Seriously, I want to have the same shit Academy members smoked when they nominated Avatar in MULTIPLE categories. Haha. Unforgivable, actually. And they know it. Embarassing.

  414. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    To clarify, True Lies and The Abyss are GOOD movies.

  415. Tero Heikkinen
    December 3, 2012

    Oh, yeah. And I have had The Deep Blue Sea on BD for 6 months now, so it was kinda old news to me. Never thought that Rachel would go this far, and I think it was a one-off. No Oscar nomination for her. Great film, though.

  416. wetcnt
    December 4, 2012

    “Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Bernie and Magic Mike”

    Whatever these guys are smoking I want some.

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