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New York Film Critics – Last Minute Predictions?

Tomorrow morning, starting at 7am Pacific, believe it or not, the New York Film critics will announce. We then have two days before National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film critics. The next two weeks are going to be interesting.  Some contenders might shift forward in unexpected ways. No, the critics don’t vote for Oscars. But they can shift momentum, especially for a film or actor who hasn’t really been “in the conversation,” as they irritatingly say.  I guess I can’t it off any longer so here are my predictions for the NYFCC. Would like to hear yours.

Best Film: Zero Dark Thirty (alt. The Master)
Best Director:  Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alt. Bigelow)
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln (alt. Joaquin Phoenix)
Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (alt. Jennifer Lawrence)
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (alt. Robert DeNiro)
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miz
Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Silver Linings Playbook)
Cinematography: The Master
Documentary: Queen of Versailles (alt. Central Park Five)
Foreign film: Amour

Membership after the cut.

Current Chair:
Joshua Rothkopf
Time Out New York

Gave 100s to:

Members:

Thelma Adams
Yahoo! Movies

John Anderson
Variety, Newsday

Melissa Anderson
The Village Voice

Michael Atkinson
The Village Voice

Dwight Brown
NNPA Syndication

Richard Corliss
Time

David Denby
The New Yorker

Karen Durbin
Elle Magazine

Bilge Ebiri
New York Magazine

David Edelstein
New York Magazine

David Fear
Time Out New York

Marshall Fine
Star Magazine, Huffington Post

Owen Gleiberman
Entertainment Weekly

Jim Hoberman
Freelance

Stuart Klawans
The Nation

Lou Lumenick
The New York Post

Joe Morgenstern
The Wall Street Journal

Vincent Musetto
Freelance

Joe Neumaier
The New York Daily News

Andrew O’Hehir
Salon.com

Nick Pinkerton
The Village Voice

Peter Rainer
Christian Science Monitor

Rex Reed
New York Observer

Richard Schickel
Truthdig.com

Lisa Schwarzbaum
Entertainment Weekly

Kyle Smith
The New York Post

Dana Stevens
Slate.com

Amy Taubin
Artforum

Peter Travers
Rolling Stone

Keith Uhlich
Time Out New York

Elizabeth Weitzman
The New York Daily News

Armond White
New York Press

Stephen Whitty
The Star-Ledger/Newhouse Newspapers

Stephanie Zacharek
NPR, Film.com

56 Comments on this Post

  1. Best Film : The Master
    Best Director: PT Anderson
    Best Actor: Phoenix (DDL couldnt dream of giving a performance like this)

  2. Dion Blackler

    Best film: Argo
    Best director: Spielberg
    Best actor: DDL
    Best actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Best supporting actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Best supporting actress: Anne Hathaway
    Best screenplay: Lincoln
    Best foreign language film: Amour
    Best cinematography: Life of Pi
    Best documentary: Mea Maxima Culpa

  3. Jack Traven II

    Film: Lincoln
    Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Master
    Screenplay: Argo
    Cinematography: Argo

  4. Picture: Argo
    Director: Michael Haneke
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
    Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Cinematography: The Master
    Documentary: Marley
    Foreign Language Film: Amour

    I think that correlates exactly with what I put in the contest. I have no idea, though, and can think of many other possibilities in every category, most of which seem equally as plausible as those above.

    EXCITED!

  5. Yeah I think you guys are right about THE MASTER. Someone needs to get it back in the race. NY did go crazy over it right? Anyhoo, I don’t predict really, so good luck everyone. :)

  6. Spiderball

    Best film: Lincoln
    Best director: Ben Affleck
    Best actor: Daniel Day Lewis
    Best actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Best supporting actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Best supporting actress: Anne Hathaway
    Best screenplay: The Master

  7. Picture: The Master
    Director: Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Lead Actor: DDL (Lincoln)
    Lead Actress: Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Supporting Actor: Hoffman (The Master)
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom / The Master (alt)
    Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Foreign Movie: Amour

  8. Robert A.

    I’m most curious to see what happens in director. Spielberg has never won a NYFC award, even for Schindler’s List and SPR. Will this be the first year he breaks through with the Gotham critics? I’m not sure.

    Hoping Riva wins Best Actress here or with the LAFC.

  9. I’m thinking John Goodman for supporting actor for both Argo and Flight – nice to see him back!

    Unrelated – is anyone else offended by the treatment of Bipolar Disorder as a funny situation for a screwy romantic comedy? I didn’t really find Pat’s mental illness funny – nor the casual way O.Russell treated his willful violation of the restraining order. That teacher was right to be scared of him. Not worthy of best picture/screenplay.

  10. Ummm how is ZDT going to win anything when majority of the critics listed up there haven’t seen the film or or reviewed it yet.

  11. Film: Argo (alt. The Master).
    Director: Ben Affleck, Argo (alt. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master).
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln (alt. Denzel Washington, Flight).
    Actress: Quvénzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (alt. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook).
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (alt. Alan Arkin, Argo).
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions (alt. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables).
    Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom (alt. Argo).
    Cinematography: Life of Pi (alt. The Master).
    Documentary: Mea Maxima Culpa (alt. Central Park Five).
    Foreign Language Film: Amour (alt. No).

  12. It will be odd if Argo”, which received as good or better aggregate reviews from this group when compared to the films you’re predicting, receives no awards from them…

  13. I guess the only thing that changed from when I originally entered contest is that ZD30 replaces Argo in BD and BP field.

    Best Picture – Lincoln (alt Zero Dark Thirty)
    Best Director – Katheryn Bigelow (alt Ang Lee)
    Best Actor – DDL (alt. Joaquin Phoenix)
    Best Actress – Jennifer Lawrence (alt. Jessica Chastain)
    Best Supporting Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman (alt. Robert De Niro)
    Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway (alt. Helen Hunt)
    Best Screenplay – Moonrise ingdom (alt. Argo)
    Best Foreign FIlm – Amour (alt. A Royal Affair)
    Best Cinematography – Life of Pi (alt. The Master)

  14. Best Film: Lincoln
    Best Director: Ben AFFLECK, Argo
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miz
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Cinematography: Lincoln

  15. Best Film: Zero Dark Thirty (alt. Life of Pi)
    Best Director: Ang Lee (alt. Bigelow)
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln (alt. John Hawks)
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (alt. Jennifer Lawrence)
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (alt. Phillip Seymour Hoffman)
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Silver Linings Playbook)
    Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Documentary: Marina Abramovic – The Artist is Present
    Foreign film: Amour

  16. Film: Amour (alt. The Master)
    Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (alt. Steven Spielberg)
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (alt. DDL)
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (alt. Jessica Chastain)
    Sup. Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (alt. Tommy Lee Jones)
    Sup. Actress: Sally Field (alt. Helen Hunt)
    Screenplay: Argo (alt. Lincoln)
    Cinematography: The Master
    Documentary: The Central Park Five (alt. This Is Not A Film)
    Foreign Film: Holy Motors (If they decide to spread the wealth, otherwise alt. Amour)

  17. Side note: I just saw THE HOBBIT and it was awesome! I have exactly the feeling I hoped I’d have walking out of the first Star Wars prequel. Jackson/Walsh/Boyens (with a Del Toro assist) were able to transport me directly back into the Tolkien sweet spot. They absolutely nailed it. Lots more I’d like to say, but I’ll allow folks to see it first.

  18. Alternatives are for pussies.

    Best Film: Zero Dark Thirty
    Best Director: Katheryn Bigelow
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Supporting Actor: Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Screenplay: Silver Linings Playbook
    Cinematography: Roger Deakins, Skyfall

  19. Best Film: Zero Dark Thirty (alt. Lincoln)
    Best Director:  Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Screenplay: Argo
    Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man (alt. How to survive a plague)
    Foreign film: Amour

  20. Best Film: Les Miserables (alt. Amour)
    Best Director: Michael Haneke, Amour
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Screenplay: Amour
    Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Documentary: The Queen of Versailles
    Foreign film: Amour

  21. Jeremy E

    Film: The Master
    Director: PTA, The Master
    Actor: Phoenix, The Master
    Actress: Quvénzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miz
    Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
    Cinematography: The Master
    Documentary: The Central Park Five
    Foreign Language Film: Amour

  22. Christopher

    Picture: Argo
    Director: Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Lead Actor: DDL (Lincoln)
    Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Supporting Actor: DDL (Lincoln)
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt (Sessions)
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Cinematography: Zero Dark Thirty
    Foreign Movie: Amour

  23. Christopher

    Whoops!~My supporting actor should be Alan Arkin (Argo)!

  24. Such great predictions here. But can someone PLEASE tell me how Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance in THE MASTER is supporting? Ridiculous!!

  25. Gonna go with: The Master, PT Anderson, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, tommy lee jones, Amy Adams, Lincoln sceenplay… It’s so exciting because even the categories match the oscars in many ways!

  26. Bryce Forestieri

    Just Hope AMOUR and/or LINCOLN win big tomorrow
    I wouldn’t mind some love for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD and MOONRISE KINGDOM tho the latter is extremely unlikely I know…

  27. Bridget von Hammersmarck

    Picture: Lincoln
    Director: Steven Spielberg
    Actor: Thure Lindhardt
    Actress: Rachel Weisz
    Supporting Actor: David Strathairn
    Supporting Actress: Diane Kruger
    Screenplay: Amour

  28. Bball_Jake

    This year is hard to predict. I’ll go with:
    Picture:Les Miserables
    Director:Tom Hooper
    Best Actor:Daniel Day Lewis
    Best Actress:Jennifer Lawrence
    Supp Actor:Robert Deniro
    Supp Actress:Anne Hathaway
    Cinematography:The Dark Knight Rises
    Foreign:Amour

  29. Film Fatale

    Karen-

    The NYFC have all seen Zero Dark Thirty lol.

  30. Best Film: The Master (alt. Zero Dark 30)
    Best Director: Bigelow (alt. PT Anderson)
    Actor: John Hawkes (alt. Phoenix)
    Actress: Jen Lawrence (alt. Quvenzhane Wallis)
    Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (alt. De Niro)
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (alt. Helen Hunt)
    Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Silver Linings Playbook)
    Cinematography: Zero Dark 30 (alt. The Master)
    Documentary: The Central Park Five (alt. The Queen of Versailles)
    Foreign film: Amour

  31. Bridget von Hammersmarck

    Forgot:

    Best Screenplay: “Beasts of the Southern Shakey Handheld Camera Controlled By An Operator Who Was Clearly Drunk Throughout Production”
    Best Cinematography: “The Master”
    Best Foreign Film: “Amour”
    Best Documentary: “The Central Park Five”

  32. Al Robinson

    I just want to say: “I LOVE this stuff” The Academy Awards are soo much fun to predict, and all of the earlier awards that help shape the Academy Awards. We always hope that the (actual) best movies and actors, directors, etc. get nominated and win. Unfortunitelly, that is not always the case. Of my 3 favorite movies of 2011, none of them were nominated. (1. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, 2. Super 8, 3. Drive)

    This year, there are a few truly great movies to choose from, I’ve already seen The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Dark Knight Rises, Argo, and Life of Pi. I can’t wait to see The Hobbit, Zero Dark Thirty, and Django Unchained. I am also planing on still seeing Lincoln and possibly Silver Linings Playbook. And, I usually don’t go for musicals, I do want to see Les Miserables.

    There you go.

  33. Rodrigo Junqueira Perticarari

    Picture: Zero Dark Thirty

    Director: Kathryn Bigelow

    Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis

    Best Actress: Jessica Chastain

    Supp Actor: Robert DeNiro

    Supp Actress:Anne Hathaway

    Cinematography: Lincoln

    Foreign:Amour

  34. This year is difficult to predict so far…here’s how I think NY will pan out…

    Best Picture
    ARGO

    Best Director
    BEN AFFLECK, ARGO

    Best Actor
    DANIEL DAY LEWIS, LINCOLN

    Best Actress
    EMMANUELLE RIVA, AMOUR

    Best Supporting Actor
    TOMMY LEE JONES, LINCOLN

    Best Supporting Actress
    ANNE HATHAWAY, LES MISERABLES

  35. Don’t know whether this helps or hurts him, but just saying: Steven Spielberg has never won a Best Director award from the NYFCC.

  36. I have a feeling Im going to be very disappointed but heck so goes life right?

    What they’ll probably do
    Picture The Master
    Director Ben Affleck Argo
    Actor Daniel Day Lewis Lincoln
    Actress Emmanuelle Riva Amour
    B S Actor Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
    B S Actress Anne Hathaway Les Miserables
    Screenplay The Master
    Cinematography The Life of Pi
    Foreign Amour

    What I’d prefer
    Picture Lincoln
    Director Speilberg Lincoln
    Actor Daniel Day Lewis Lincoln
    Actress Emmanuelle Riva Amour
    B S Actor Alan Arkin Argo
    B S Actress Sally Field Lincoln
    Screenplay Lincoln
    Cinematography The Life of Pi
    Foreign Amour

  37. Evan, that’s a significant discovery. Can’t fathom them not giving him Best Director for at least one of Schindler’s List or Saving Private Ryan. Wonder if they just don’t like him that much or if they’ll finally decide to honor him? To me, it makes a more compelling reason to predict AGAINST him and Lincoln winning.

  38. I’m just so excited for tomorrow! I love awards season…

  39. Best Film: The Master(Alt. Zero Dark Thirty)

    Best Director: P.T Anderson, The Master(Alt. Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty)

    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master(Alt. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln)

    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (alt. Jennifer Lawrence)

    Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master(Alt. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook)

    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

    Screenplay: P.T Anderson, The Master

    Cinematography: The Master

    Documentary: Queen of Versailles (alt. Central Park Five)

    Foreign film: Amour

  40. Film, Director: The Master (Alt: Moonrise Kingdom)
    Actor: DDL
    Actress: Marion Cotillard
    Supp Actor: PS Hoffman (Master)
    Supp Actress: Helen Hunt (sessions)
    Screenplay: Moonrise (or Lincoln)
    Cinematography: The Master
    Foreign: Holy Motors (or Amour)

  41. (Can’t remember what I put in the contest 2 days ago, but it changes hourly anyway)

    Best Film: The Master (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
    Best Director: Katherine Bigelow (alt. Ang Lee)
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
    Supporting Actor: Robert de Niro
    Supporting Actress: Sally Field
    Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
    Cinematography: The Master
    Documentary: Central Park Five
    Foreign film: Amour

    (I’m giving them – NYFCC – more credit than they’re worth, probably and l’ll change my mind about six times before morning)

  42. The rise of The Master and Joaquin Phoenix!!! I’m still firm in predicting that he will get the Actor Oscar. I love DDL too but Phoenix really deserves it!

  43. Bob Burns

    Lincoln.

    Lincoln has a powerful physical presence in NY.

    Kushner/NY is another reason.

  44. Christine

    I already sent in my predictions, but with slight changes my last-minute predictions are:

    Best Film: Argo
    Best Director: Ben Affleck
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Cinematography: The Master
    Documentary: The Queen of Versailles
    Foreign film: Amour

    I don’t know why, but somehow feel like they’re going to recognize The Master in at least one of the the acting categories, and that might be Amy Adams–I know, I know, Anne Hathaway’s bound to sweep crix awards, still.

  45. Picture: The Master

    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis

    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva

    Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro

    Supporting Actress: Judi Dench

    Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

  46. Alternates in Parentheses:

    Film: Zero Dark Thirty (The Master)
    Director: Spielberg (P.T. Anderson)
    Actor: Phoenix (DDL)
    Actress: Riva (Lawrence)
    Supp. Actor: Hoffman
    Supp. Actress: Hathaway (Field)
    Screenplay: Silver Linings (Moonrise)
    Cinematography: The Master (Skyfall)
    Foreign: Amour (Holy Motors)

  47. Question about the predictions contest: after the announcement tomorrow of the NYFCC winners, can we still change our predictions for LAFCA and NBR?

  48. Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
    Runner-up 1: Lincoln
    Runner-up 2: Looper
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Best Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Screenplay: Argo

  49. Al Robinson

    Predictions for NYFC:

    Best Picture: Lincoln
    Director: Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty

    Personally though, I am really hoping for Life of Pi and for Ang Lee. Best movie all year!!

  50. Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
    Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
    S. Actress: Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    S. Actor: Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Screenplay: Tony Kushner (Lincoln) alt. Chris Terrio (Argo) … not 100% sure why

  51. After looking over their history, it seems like the NYFCC are generally much more in line with Oscar than their peers–particularly LAFCA, who are much more eccentric with their choices, in my opinion. Therefore, I can easily see Lincoln scoring really well here and winning picture, director, actor, and screenplay (possibly one of the supporting awards too, although that seems a bit much). Part of me feels like The Master and Amour could score the top prize as well (definitely Argo, too).

    Picture: Lincoln (alt. The Master)
    Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alt. Michael Haneke, Amour or P.T. Anderson, The Master)
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (alt. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master)
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (alt. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook)
    Supporting Actor: John Goodman, Flight and Argo (alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master)
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (alt. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy)
    Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (alt. Tony Kushner, Lincoln)
    Cinematography: The Master (alt. Life of Pi)
    Foreign Language Film: Amour (alt. NONE)
    Animated Film: Paranorman (alt. Brave)
    Documentary: The Central Park Five (alt. Searching for Sugar Man)
    Best First Feature: Beasts of the Southern Wild (alt. The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

  52. Glenn UK

    Picture: Argo
    Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
    S. Actress: Sally Field (Lincoln)
    S. Actor: Eddie Redmayne (Les Miz) – NGNG!!!!

  53. Picture: Amour (alt. the master)
    Director: PTA the master (alt. Bigelow)
    Actress: Emmanuel Riva, amour (alt. Jessica chastain, zd30)
    Actor: Joaquin Pheonix, the master (alt. DDL)
    S. Actress: Anne Hathaway, les miz (alt. Amy Adams, master)
    S. Actor: Phillip seymore Hoffman, master (alt. tommy lee jones, Lincoln)
    Screenplay: PTA, the master
    Cinematography: The Master
    Foreign Film: Holy Motors
    Animated: Frankenweenie
    Documentary: West of Memphis
    First Feature: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  54. christiannnw

    *praying for

    Best Film: The Deep Blue Sea
    Best Director: Terence Davies
    Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
    Best Actor: John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    Best Supporting Actress: Isabelle Huppert (Amour) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner (Lincoln)

    I’m out of my mind.

  55. It’s cool to have DeNiro in the Oscar talk again after so many years!

  56. Best film. Argo
    Best director. Spielberg
    Best actor DDL (JP was awesome but after after seeing Lincoln I knew who Really had it in the bag.)
    Best supporting actor. Tommy lee jones(any word on dicaprios performance in django unchained? I)

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