SAG Awards Preview

Tomorrow morning the Screen Actors Guild will announce their awards, starting early in the morning, around 5:30 am. The SAG awards are reliable predictors when it comes to Oscar’s acting categories. Getting an ensemble nod is always key to the run up for Best Picture. A film can win without it but it’s more difficult.  Beasts of the Southern Wild is not eligible for SAG so any Oscar predictions for that film in the acting categories will have to be made blind.

ENTER OUR PREDICT THE SAG NOMINATIONS CONTEST

Traditionally, like the Globes and the BFCAs, the NBR and now, the New York Film critics, the SAG awards can sometimes represent an earlier stage of the race. For instance, J. Edgar was nominated for SAG last year but then mostly shut out at the Oscars.  It takes time for word to spread, for the consensus to build and if you are doing the voting before the films have a chance to get out to the public you are taking a risk that even a SAG nominated actor or cast will not make the cut come Oscar time.

We have to do this fast, though, because the following day are the Golden Globe awards.  At least we can wait until the new year before we are then hit with the electoral college of the Oscar race, the guilds.

SAG awards are probably among the easier guilds to predict because most of us understand what a great performance is. We know it when we see it. The same way Nate Silver judges polls for the election, by looking at those that agree more than at those that don’t, the early critics awards give us some clue as to how things might turn out. There are a few things we know for sure, and some things we might be surprised by.

The SAG membership is huge. But the nominating committee is a more manageable size of roughly 2,000 compared to their 100,000 membership of active voters.

Like everything in Hollywood, SAG is driven by buzz, celebrity and power.  There is real buzz and fake buzz. Fake buzz will only take you so far. Real buzz can take you all the way. Every year, the studios try hard to push their contenders onto the list of talked about performers and it can sometimes work. Better yet, if a performance is getting lots of buzz already and all voters need is to be pointed in that direction.

The big question for tomorrow will be, which of the four Big Oscar Movies are going to wow the nominating committee? Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook all have a chance to make a bigger show, or not. All four of them could take one lead, one or two supporting and cast.  Lincoln has Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field all right up front. So expect four nominations for that movie. If they really like it a lot you might see someone else show up in the nominations, like James Spader.

Les Miserables should have Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway and cast, at the very least. But if they really like it, it could also have Samantha Barks, Eddie Redmayne or someone else. Silver Linings can get Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Cast, and as such, it could lead the nominations tomorrow.  Zero Dark Thirty can get Actress, and maybe supporting, and maybe cast. If it gets cast that keeps it in the top spot to win. If it doesn’t get a cast nod, it’s going to be a somewhat harder win with an actor-dominated Academy.

There have been many great ensembles this year that would have been excellent choices that won’t make it in, like Cloud Atlas.

Some outside possibilities for nominations could be the excellent cast from Middle of Nowhere, admittedly, none of them stars yet but on the work alone they deserve it.

To that end, I’m going to make some predictions for tomorrow – I have no idea whether they will be right or not.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Alt: Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere, Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Alt: John Hawkes, The Sessions

Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Alt. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables, Javier Bardem, Skyfall, John Goodman for either Flight or Argo

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Amy Adams, The Master
Alt. Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere, Samantha Barks, Les Miserables, Gloria Reuben, Lincoln

Ensemble
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt:
Flight

Screen Actors Guild

Official Site

Actor Comparison Charts

Won SAG | Won Oscar

Actor 2011
Jean DuJardin, The Artist Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Demian Bichir, A Better Life Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress 2011
Viola Davis, The Help Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Supporting Actor 2011
Christopher Plummer, Beginners Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Nick Nolte, Warrior Nick Nolte, Warrior
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball Jonah Hill, Moneyball
J. Edgar: Armie Hammer Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close
Supporting Actress 2011
Octavia Spencer, The Help Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help Jessica Chastain, The Help
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
The Help The Help
The Artist The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris
The Descendants The Descendants
Actor 2010
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jeff Bridges, True Grit Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours James Franco, 127 Hours
Actress
Natalie Portman, Black Swan Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Hillary Swank, Conviction Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Josh Brolin, Milk Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS Helena Bonham Carter, TKS
Mila Kunis, Black Swan Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Fighter The Fighter
Black Swan Black Swan
The Kids Are Alright The Kids Are Alright
The Social Network The Social Network

 

Won SAG | Won Oscar

Actor 2009
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
George Clooney, Up in the Air George Clooney, Up in the Air
Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Josh Brolin, Milk Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
Amy Adams, Doubt Amy Adams, Doubt
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button
Milk Milk
Doubt The Reader

Won SAG | Won Oscar

Actor 2008
Sean Penn, Milk Sean Penn, Milk
Frank langella, Frost/Nixon Frank langella, Frost/Nixon
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Actress
Meryl Streep Doubt Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road Kate Winslet, The Reader
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting marries
Melissa Leo, Frozen River Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Josh Brolin, Milk Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
Amy Adams, Doubt Amy Adams, Doubt
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button
Milk Milk
Doubt The Reader
Actor 2007
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
George Clooney, Michael Clayton George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Actress
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Julie Christie, Away from Her Julie Christie, Away from Her
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth
Ellen Page, Juno Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart Laura Linney, The Savages
Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Casey Affleck, Jesse James Casey Affleck, Jesse James
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Ruby Dee, American Gangster Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
3:10 to Yuma Atonement
Into the Wild Michael Clayton
Hairspray Juno
American Gangster There Will Be Blood

 

Actor 2006
Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Peter O’Toole (Venus) Peter O’Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
Actress
Penelope Cruz (Volver) Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen) Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children) Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children) Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirl)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed) Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Babel Babel
Bobby Letters From Iwo Jima
The Departed The Departed
Dreamgirls Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine Little Miss Sunshine
Actor 2005
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote Hoffman
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain Ledger
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
David Strathairn, Good Night Strathairn
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line Phoenix
Actress
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line Witherspoon
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents Dench
Charlize Theron, North Country Theron
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica Huffman
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana Clooney
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain Gyllenhaal
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man Giamatti
Matt Dillon, Crash Dillon
Don Cheadle, Crash William Hurt, History of Violence
Supporting Actress
Rachiel Weisz, The Constant Gardener Weisz
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain Williams
Catherine keener, Capote Keener
Amy Adams, Junebug Adams
Frances McDormand, North Country McDormand
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain
Crash Crash
Capote Capote
Good Night and Good Luck Good Night, and Good Luck
Hustle & Flow Munich
Actor 2004
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda Don Cheadle
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland Johnny Depp
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator Leo DiCaprio
Jamie Foxx, Ray Jamie Foxx
Paul Giamatti, Sideways Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Actress
Annette Bening / Being Julia Annette Bening
Catalina Sandino Moreno /Maria Full of Grace Cataline Sandino Moreno
Imelda Staunton / Vera Drake Imelda Staunton
Hilary Swank / Million Dollar Baby Hilary Swank
Kate Winslet / Eternal Sunshine Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways Thomas Haden Church
Jamie Foxx, Collateral Jamie Foxx
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby Morgan Freeman
James Garner, The Notebook Alan Alda, The Aviator
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland Clive Owen, Closer
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator Cate Blanchett
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish Natalie Portman, Closer
Laura Linney, Kinsey Laura Linney
Virginia Madsen, Sideways Virginia Madsen
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Sophie Okonedo
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
The Aviator The Aviator
Finding Neverland Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby Million Dollar Baby
Sideways Sideways
Ray Ray
Hotel Rwanda
Best Actor 2003
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River Sean Penn, Mystic River
Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Best Actress
Patricia Clarkson, Station Agent Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Charlize Theron, Monster Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen Samantha Morton, In America
Supporting Actor:
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit Djimon Hounsou, In America
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Tim Robbins, Mystic River Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
Supporting Actress:
Maria Bello, The Cooler Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Holly Hunter, Thirteen Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Ensemble:
In America Master and Commander
ROTK ROTK
Mystic River Mystic River
Seabiscuit Seabiscuit
The Station Agent Lost in Translation

2002

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Pianist Adrien Brody
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Nicolas Cage
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Daniel Day-Lewis
Richard Gere, Chicago Michael Caine
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt Jack Nicholson
Best Actress
Salma Hayek, Frida Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Renee Zellweger, Chicago Renee Zellweger, Chicago
Supporting Actor:
Chris Cooper, Adaptation Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours Ed Harris, The Hours
Alfred Molina, Frida Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can
Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours Julianne Moore, The Hours
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Queen Latifah, Chicago Queen Latifah, Chicago
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
Ensemble:
Adaptation The Pianist
Chicago Chicago
The Hours The Hours
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding Gangs of New York
Best Actor: 2001
Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind) Russell Crowe
Kevin Kline (Life as a House) Will Smith
Sean Penn (I Am Sam) Sean Penn
Denzel Washington (Training Day) Denzel Washington
Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom) Tom Wilkinson
Best Actress:
Halle Berry (Monster’s Ball) Halle Berry
Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind) Nicole Kidman (MR!)
Judi Dench (Iris) Judi Dench
Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom) Sissy Spacek
Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones’s Diary) Renee Zellweger
Best Supporting Actor:
Jim Broadbent (Iris) Jim Broadbent
Hayden Christensen (Life as a House) Jon Voight (Ali)
Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast) Ben Kingsley
Ian McKellen (LOTR) Ian McKellen
Ethan Hawke (Training Day) Ethan Hawke
Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Mirren (Gosford Park) Helen Mirren
Dakota Fanning (I Am Sam) Jennifer Connelly (Beautiful Mind)
Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky) Maggie Smith (Gosford Park)
Judi Dench (The Shipping News) Kate Winslet (Iris)
Cate Blanchett (Bandits) Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom)
Ensemble: Best Picture:
A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park Gosford Park
In the Bedroom In the Bedroom
Moulin Rouge! Moulin Rouge!
Lord of the Rings Lord of the Rings

 

Best Actor: 2000
Jamie Bell, Billy Elliot Ed Harris
Russell Crowe, Gladiator Russell Crowe, Gladiator
Benicio Del Toro, Traffic Javier Bardem
Tom Hanks, Cast Away Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Geoffrey Rush, Quills Geoffrey Rush, Quills
Best Actress:
Joan Allen, The Contender Joan Allen, The Contender
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat Juliette Binoche, Chocolat
Ellyn Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream Ellyn Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream
Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me
Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
Best Supporting Actor:
Jeff Bridges, The Contender Jeff Bridges, The Contender
Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire
Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich
Gary Oldman, The Contender Benicio Del Toro, Traffic
Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator
Best Supporting Actress:
Judi Dench, Chocolat Judi Dench, Chocolat
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
Frances McDormand, Almost Famous Frances McDormand, Almost Famous
Kate Winslet, Quills Kate Winslet, Quills
Julie Walters, Billy Elliot Marcia Gay Harden, Pollack
Best Ensemble
Almost Famous Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Gladiator Gladiator
Billy Elliot Billy Elliot
Erin Brockovich Erin Brockovich
Traffic Traffic

 

Best Actor: 1999
Denzel Washington, The Hurricane Denzel Washington, The Hurricane
Jim Carrey, Man on the Moon Sean Penn, Sweet and Lowdown
Russell Crowe, The Insider Russell Crowe, The Insider
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Flawless Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story
Kevin Spacey, American Beauty Kevin Spacey, American Beauty
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, American Beauty Annette Bening, American Beauty
Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart
Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry
Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair
Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds
Best Supporting Actress:
Cameron Diaz, Being John Malkovich Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich
Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry
Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
Julianne Moore, Magnolia Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense
Best Supporting Actor:
Michael Caine, Cider House Rules Michael Caine, Cider House Rules
Tom Cruise, Magnolia Tom Cruise, Magnolia
Chris Cooper, American Beauty Jude Law, Talented Mr. Ripley
Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile
Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense
Ensemble: Best Picture:
American Beauty American Beauty
Being John Malkovich Sixth Sense
The Cider House Rules The Cider House Rules
The Green Mile The Green Mile
Magnolia The Insider

 

Best Actor: 1998
Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful
Joseph Fiennes in Shakespeare In Love Edward Norton in American History X
Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan
Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters
Nick Nolte in Affliction Nick Nolte in Affliction
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth
Jane Horrocks in Little Voice Fernanda Montenegro in Central Station
Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love
Meryl Streep in One True Thing Meryl Streep in One True Thing
Emily Watson in Hilary and Jackie Emily Watson in Hilary and Jackie
Supporting Actor:
James Coburn in Affliction James Coburn in Affliction
Robert Duvall in A Civil Action Robert Duvall in A Civil Action
David Kelly in Waking Ned Devine Ed Harris in The Truman Show
Geoffrey Rush in Shakespeare In Love Geoffrey Rush in Shakespeare In Love
Billy Bob Thornton in A Simple Plan Billy Bob Thornton in A Simple Plan
Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates in Primary Colors Kathy Bates in Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn in Little Voice Brenda Blethyn in Little Voice
Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love
Rachel Griffiths in Hilary and Jackie Rachel Griffiths in Hilary and Jackie
Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters
ENSEMBLE Best Picture:
Life Is Beautiful Life Is Beautiful
Little Voice The Thin Red Line
Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan
Shakespeare In Love Shakespeare In Love
Waking Ned Devine Elizabeth

 

Best Actor: 1997
Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting
Robert Duvall in The Apostle Robert Duvall in The Apostle
Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold
Dustin Hoffman in Wag the Dog Dustin Hoffman in Wag the Dog
Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets
Best Actress:
Helena Bonham Carter -Wings Of the Dove Helena Bonham Carter – Wings Of the Dove
Judi Dench in Mrs Brown Judi Dench in Mrs Brown
Pam Grier in Jackie Brown Julie Christie in Afterglow
Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets
Kate Winslet in Titanic Kate Winslet in Titanic
Robin Wright Penn in She’s So Lovely
Best Supporting Actor:
Billy Connolly in Mrs Brown Robert Forster in Jackie Brown
Anthony Hopkins in Amistad Anthony Hopkins in Amistad
Greg Kinnear in As Good As It Gets Greg Kinnear in As Good As It Gets
Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights
Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting
Best Supporting Actress:
Kim Basinger in L. A. Confidential Kim Basinger in L. A. Confidential
Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting
Alison Elliott in The Wings Of the Dove Joan Cusack in In & Out
Julianne Moore in Boogie Nights Julianne Moore in Boogie Nights
Gloria Stuart in Titanic Gloria Stuart in Titanic
Enemble: Best Picture:
Boogie Nights As Good As It Gets
The Full Monty The Full Monty
Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting
L. A. Confidential L. A. Confidential
Titanic Titanic

 

Best Actor: 1996
Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes in The English Patient Ralph Fiennes in The English Patient
Woody Harrelson in The People vs. Larry Flynt Woody Harrelson in The People vs. Larry Flynt
Geoffrey Rush in Shine Geoffrey Rush in Shine
Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade
Best Actress:
Brenda Blethyn in Secrets & Lies Brenda Blethyn in Secrets & Lies
Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room
Frances McDormand in Fargo Frances McDormand in Fargo
Gena Rowlands in Unhook the Stars Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves
Kristin Scott Thomas in The English Patient Kristin Scott Thomas in The English Patient
Best Supporting Actor:
Hank Azaria in The Birdcage Edward Norton in Primal Fear
Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire
Nathan Lane in The Birdcage Armin Mueller-Stahl in Shine
William H. Macy in Fargo William H. Macy in Fargo
Noah Taylor in Shine James Woods in Ghosts Of Mississippi
Best Supporting Actress:
Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces
Juliette Binoche in The English Patient Juliette Binoche in The English Patient
Marisa Tomei in Unhook the Stars Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Secrets & Lies
Gwen Verdon in Marvin’s Room Barbara Hershey in The Portrait Of a Lady
Renée Zellweger in Jerry Maguire Joan Allen in The Crucible
Enemble:
The Birdcage Jerry Maguire
The English Patient The English Patient
Marvin’s Room Secrets & Lies
Shine Shine
Sling Blade Fargo

 

Best Actor: 1995
Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas
Anthony Hopkins in Nixon Anthony Hopkins in Nixon
James Earl Jones in Cry, The Beloved Country Richard Dreyfuss in Mr. Holland’s Opus
Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking
Massimo Troisi in Il Postino Massimo Troisi in Il Postino
Best Actress:
Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking
Joan Allen in Nixon Sharon Stone in Casino
Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas
Meryl Streep in The Bridges Of Madison County Meryl Streep in The Bridges Of Madison County
Emma Thompson in Sense and Sensibility Emma Thompson in Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor:
Kevin Bacon in Murder In the First Tim Roth in Rob Roy
Kenneth Branagh in Othello James Cromwell in Babe
Don Cheadle in Devil In A Blue Dress Brad Pitt in 12 Monkeys
Ed Harris in Apollo 13 Ed Harris in Apollo 13
Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects
Best Supporting Actress:
Stockard Channing in Smoke Kathleen Quinlan in Apollo 13
Anjelica Huston in The Crossing Guard Joan Allen in Nixon
Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite
Mare Winningham in Georgia Mare Winningham in Georgia
Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility
Ensemble: Best Picture:
Apollo 13 Apollo 13
Get Shorty Babe
How To Make An American Quilt Braveheart
Nixon Il Postino
Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility

 

Best Actor: 1994
Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption
Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump
Paul Newman in Nobody’s Fool Paul Newman in Nobody’s Fool
Tim Robbins in The Shawshank Redemption Nigel Hawthorne in The Madness Of King George
John Travolta in Pulp Fiction John Travolta in Pulp Fiction
Best Actress:
Jodie Foster in Nell Jodie Foster in Nell
Jessica Lange in Blue Sky Jessica Lange in Blue Sky
Meg Ryan in When a Man Loves a Woman Winona Ryder in Little Women
Susan Sarandon in The Client Susan Sarandon in The Client
Meryl Streep in The River Wild Miranda Richardson in Tom & Viv
Best Supporting Actor:
Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction
Martin Landau in Ed Wood Martin Landau in Ed Wood
Chazz Palminteri in Bullets Over Broadway Chazz Palminteri in Bullets Over Broadway
Gary Sinise in Forrest Gump Gary Sinise in Forrest Gump
John Turturro in Quiz Show Paul Scofield in Quiz Show
Best Supporting Actress:
Jamie Lee Curtis in True Lies Rosemary Harris in Tom & Viv
Sally Field in Forrest Gump Helen Mirren in The Madness Of King George
Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction
Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway
Robin Wright Penn in Forrest Gump Jennifer Tilly in Bullets Over Broadway

 

Ensemble Casts on the Path to Best Picture

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SAG Awards No Guts No Glory

54 Comments

  1. Eric
    December 11, 2012

    I’m just going to chime in quickly. I don’t think Zero Dark Thirty will get cast, I think it’ll be Django instead. For some reason, I don’t see Zero Dark Thirty connecting with SAG outside Chastain.

  2. wade
    December 11, 2012

    What about Moonrise Kingdom for ensemble? Any chance you think?

  3. David Lindsey
    December 11, 2012

    There are a lot of mistakes in these charts. You might want to reevaluate them.

  4. Akumax
    December 11, 2012

    Am I wrong or there are some mistakes in the charts?! You got the supporting actor cat of 2010 wrong. Heath Ledger? That year was Bale the winner for The fighter. Then something happened also with Penelope Cruz…

  5. alan of montreal
    December 11, 2012

    When I click on the link, it just takes me to some html code.

  6. Kevin
    December 11, 2012

    Dear Sasha, Best Supporting Actor/Actress sections of 2008 and 2009 are identical.

  7. Jose P
    December 11, 2012

    I’m also getting the html code only.

  8. Paul
    December 11, 2012

    I still remember when DDL won the SAG for Best Actor but lost the Oscar for Gangs of New York. Could happen again…

  9. Katie
    December 11, 2012

    The prediction page doesn’t seem to be working :(

  10. danemychal
    December 11, 2012

    ZDT ensemble is what I will zero in on the most. If it gets in, it’s chances of BP go up even more. I hope Django gets Ensemble nod. With Basterds winning it, its defintely possible. Actors adore QT movies.

    What id like to see:
    Lincoln
    ZDT
    Django
    Moonrise
    Argo

    What Will Actually Happen Tomorrow:
    Lincoln
    Les Mis
    Argo
    Django
    SLP

  11. Rg
    December 11, 2012

    My no guts no glory would be: PERKS FOR CAST AND SUPPORTING ACTOR AND SUPPORTING ACTRESS.

  12. alan of montreal
    December 11, 2012

    By the way, the NAACP Image award nominations are out. http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/2013-image-award-nominations-announced/ . It’s very Tyler Perry heavy, to the extent that even Middle of Nowhere didn’t receive a nod for best pic.

  13. December 11, 2012

    Contest form should be working correctly now. Apologies for the glitch. You have no idea the tech hoops we’re jumping through this afternoon. Thanks for your patience.

  14. steve50
    December 11, 2012

    Works great – thanks, Ryan.

  15. unlikely hood
    December 11, 2012

    NGNG: Irrfan Khan for Best Supporting Actor

    The rest of that category will be Jones, Hoffman, DeNiro, DiCaprio

  16. December 11, 2012

    All thanks to Sasha. All I do is ring the fire alarm and hold the hose.

  17. rufussondheim
    December 11, 2012

    Go Barks and Redmayne. I’ve not seen your performances nor do I know either of you, but I need you to win because I’ve been predicting you two to get nominated and I don’t want to lose credibility.

    Go cast of Perks! But don’t get up early (or stay up late) expecting your publicist to call.

    My NGNG pick is Ben Affleck for Best Actor.

  18. rufussondheim
    December 11, 2012

    As we all know, holding the hose is critical.

  19. mcahS
    December 11, 2012

    BET awards… denzel wins everything lol. Sag noms…I hope dicaprio gets some more nods for django…

  20. unlikely hood
    December 11, 2012

    Sasha I see that like me you’re feeling the bloom come off of John Hawkes’ rose. Best case against Hawkes nom: Mathieu Amalric, playing pretty much the same role but better, managed not to be nominated in a year where the other nominees were DDL in There Will Be Blood, Viggo Mortenson in Eastern Promises, Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd, and George Clooney in Michael Clayton. I like all those guys, but only DDL was obviously better than Amalric and at least 2 of these others were clearly not as good. I hate to say it but it feels like Cooper is getting his spot on Oscar nom day (sorry, Richard Gere).

  21. December 11, 2012

    Solid picks. Best Supporting Actor may receive a little well-needed clarity with these nominations, particularly if the Golden Globes follow suit on Thursday (or near enough). That’s a total clusterfuck of a category this year, meaning that an outside contender could easily sneak in at any stage. We could have another Michael Shannon on our hands come 10th January.

  22. December 11, 2012

    The bloom is sort of coming off of John Hawkes’ rose, but he’s been doing a little better with the critics’ groups than I had expected him to, having noticed those blooms withering a couple of weeks back. I thought that if Bradley Cooper became the contender I dreaded he might, Hawkes would be the one to make way. Cooper has, but Hawkes hasn’t, and it’s Denzel Washington who’s suffered. That said, I think Washington will reap SAG and HFPA nominations to go with his BFCA nomination today, and will be a prime contender for an Oscar nomination.

    My SAG NGNG pick: The Impossible for Best Ensemble Cast

  23. December 11, 2012

    SAG awards are probably among the easier guilds to predict because most of us understand what a great performance is.

    SAG don’t, though. Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar over Michael Fassbender in Shame? Um, no.

  24. Aaron
    December 11, 2012

    I’m predicting Moonrise Kingdom for Ensemble. It’s terrific ensemble work, and it seems like it’s the type of respected, commercially and critically successful film actors would respond to (like Midnight in Paris from last year)–plus it has beloved actors they enjoy.

    Same could be said for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which may be a bigger threat than we think.

    If Zero Dark Thirty gets in here, I think it’s position as a prime Oscar contender solidifies anymore, because the film itself doesn’t seem particularly ensemble-like, even with supposedly 100+ speaking roles.

    I didn’t predict Bradley Cooper for best actor, but Paddy made a good case for him. He’s definitely one who will sort of sail under the radar this year and end up with an Oscar nomination, to the surprise of others. I just hate that it might come at the expense of John Hawkes! I really can’t imagine an Oscar ceremony where Hawkes is snubbed and Helen Hunt is nominated…just seems so utterly bizarre to me!

    And I think at least one supporting character from Django Unchained will be nominated. I’m still sticking with DiCaprio, but I could definitely see either Waltz or Jackson taking the thunder.

  25. December 11, 2012

    This might be the first year I don’t wake up for this. I’m getting too old for this shit. lol We’ll see how crotchety I am in the morning.

    I know that none of my hopefuls have any hope so…

    Anyhoo, NGNG – Tom Hardy, Best Supporting Actor, TDKR

  26. Harmonica
    December 11, 2012

    No DiCaprio, not even in the honorable mentions? I mean, they nominated him for freaking J. EDGAR!

  27. phantom
    December 11, 2012

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Zero Dark Thirty

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
    Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Amy Adams (The Master)
    Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
    Sally Field (Lincoln)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
    Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)

    Yes, I know. Marion Cotillard and Denzel Washington are near-locks and both could EASILY get in instead of Naomi Watts/Keira Knightley or John Hawkes/Joaquin Phoenix , respectively. Watts and especially Knightley needs stronger buzz and precursor-love to go all the way to the Oscar top5, meanwhile Hawkes’s film is tiny compared to his fellow contenders’ and we still don’t know whether ‘the rant’ will hurt Phoenix in the long run or not.

    Also, I’m fully aware Silver Linings Playbook will probably get a nomination in Cast instead of The Dark Knight Rises , I just thought that because of the influential and highly acclaimed ensemble of the latter, the Actors might consider the film seriously at least for this category.

    I think Jamie Foxx, Helen Mirren, Anthony Hopkins, Jackie Weaver, Kerry Washington and Jude Law are the most viable surprises, as for the most viable shockers, we should take into consideration that the Actors tend to nominate child/youth performances ( Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit, Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire, Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine, Freddie Highmore for Finding Neverland, Evan Rachel Wood for Thirteen, Keisha Castle-Hughes for The Whale Rider, Hayden Christensen for Life as a House, Dakota Fanning for I am Sam, Jamie Bell for Billy Elliot) and underestimated veterans ( James Garner for The Notebook, Cloris Leachman for Spanglish, Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild, Ruby Dee for American Gangster, Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, Robert Duvall for Get low, Nick Nolte for Warrior, Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, etc.), so I wouldn’t count out Suraj Sharma, Tom Holland, Ezra Miller, Emma Watson, Michael Caine, Jean-Louis Trintignant, Richard Gere, Bill Murray, Meryl Streep, Russel Crowe and Maggie Smith , either, at least not yet. I’m not saying they will receive Oscar nominations, I’m saying it is perfectly possible that at least one or two of them get the SAG-nod even if not much afterwards.

    There are several worthy supporting contenders ( Jason Clarke, Kelly Reilly, Jackie Weaver ) who might have enough buzz to make the cut but will be probably overshadowed by their respective leads in the end.

    As for the less-Academy-friendly genre performances ( Matthew McConaughey, Judi Dench, Javier Bardem, Ian McKellen, Jack Black etc.), I just don’t see any of them getting in here, although that doesn’t mean a few of them couldn’t surprise at the Oscars.

    What I cannot decide whether internal competition will seal the fate of the DiCaprio-Waltz-Jackson trio. I don’t see how they could NOT split the votes and cancel each other out, having said that DiCaprio might be able to pull ahead thanks to his star power. And of course internal competition could EASILY knock out Eddie Redmayne and Samantha Barks, too. We’ll see, we’ll see !

    NO GUTS NO GLORY
    Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
    Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
    Jude Law (Anna Karenina)

  28. Reno
    December 11, 2012

    I keep writing Eddie Redmayne’s and Russell Crowe’s names in the “if it’s not in the list” boxes.

  29. Robert A.
    December 11, 2012

    @ Phantom:

    I admire your guts for excluding Cotillard from the SAG list. I’m going to probably predict her for the 5th slot just out of inertia, but I think she’s more vulnerable than a lot of people realize. I’ve also, over the past week, been starting to wonder what the chances are of Denzel getting left off the list instead of John Hawkes if Jackman and Cooper both make it on. I’m really curious to see which of the six main leading actor contenders gets left off tomorrow’s list. Surely DDL and Phoenix are safe, but after that, who knows?

    I’m also wondering about Waltz-DiCaprio-Jackson knocking each other out of Best Supporting Actor entirely. There are shades of L.A. Confidential here, when Crowe and Pearce and Spacey kind of kept each other from breaking through and getting nominated.

  30. JP
    December 11, 2012

    History backs my opinion that a film can’t win BP at the Oscars if it doesn’t get a SAG Ensemble nod. That said, tomorrow is decision day for Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and SLP, which I don’t find a lock at all considering the Up In the Air vibes coming from it. I can hardly see this 3 making the cut together. One of them will say bye bye to the Oscar win tomorrow as I think it’s very unlikely that this year they don’t choose at least one of the big cast films (Moonrise Kingodm, Marigold Hotel and Django). Lincoln/ Les Mis are the only that can feel calm about this noms.

  31. December 11, 2012

    NO GUTS NO GLORY

    Actor: Logan Lerman
    Actress: Helen Hunt (going for lead)
    Supporting Actor: Tom Holland
    Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver
    Ensemble: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

  32. steve50
    December 11, 2012

    NGNG: Both Django and Cloud Atlas will be nom’d for ensemble.

    I don’t know that a miss by ZDT in ensemble will be too tragic – Hurt Locker certainly overcame it. SAG likes to nominate faces they know.

    See you bright and early tomorrow!

  33. Robert A.
    December 11, 2012

    “I don’t know that a miss by ZDT in ensemble will be too tragic – Hurt Locker certainly overcame it.”

    Actually, I think The Hurt Locker was nominated for SAG Ensemble.

  34. phantom
    December 11, 2012

    Robert A.

    I think we are in for at least one surprise-exclusion tomorrow, but I have no idea who. For what it’s worth, I don’t feel the Cotillard-buzz anymore, she had been in my top3 since Cannes, but then ‘Rust & Bone’ opened in the US and I don’t think it made the kind of noise that secures a foreign language performance an Oscar nomination even if the actress in question is an Academy Award winning beautiful movie star. Plus Riva seems very strong at the moment and I don’t think there has ever been more than one foreign language turn in the OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE category. Granted, all that could change tomorrow…OR Cotillard could get it and – gasp – Riva could be snubbed.

    Also, I think the presumed near-lock trio, Hawkes-Phoenix-Washington IS vulnerable. Hawkes’s film is very small and he is neither a sexiestmanalive type of movie star like Cooper and Jackman nor a multiple Oscar winner like Washington and Day-Lewis. Then there is Phoenix whose film is apparently divisive (not according to critics scores, though) and we still don’t know whether his ‘rant’ will hurt him OR that Weinstein is still willing to pull out all the stops for him when he also has Cooper in a well-received crowdpleaser and Foxx in a potential smash hit. And as great as Washington’s performance is, they won’t give him a third, he could be only a filler nominee and the Academy probably won’t feel any pressure to nominate him, either, considering they have already given him TWO Oscars, so why give him a slot in such a strong year if they have no intention to give him another one ?

    Bottom line : I think we have only 3 locks in the lead acting categories : Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Daniel Day-Lewis. I think Cooper and Jackman are safe bets, but wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t make the cut. Although, sight unseen, I’m rooting for Jackman, in my opinion he is one of the most talented yet underrated actors in Hollywood, it would be nice to seem him finally reaching the next level in his career.

  35. unlikely hood
    December 11, 2012

    Paddy: fair. And I agree about Best Supporting Actor. This year is like the one where Ethan Hawke snuck in to a nom for Training Day – I think his average place on prediction charts was 17th.

    Phantom: I don’t agree that Cotillard is lock-y. That film is getting ripped like – eh, never mind my legs joke. Your picks for Best Actress are well within the best bets for tomorrow. Oscars will have to strike one of them for Wallis – or not.

    Picking against Denzel is moderately crazier. You get bigger props if that one pays off. But…

    Robert A. – I don’t actually think Phoenix is a lock. In the nominal Top 6, I still think there’s room for anyone except DDL to get bounced – by Richard Gere or Suraj Sharma or Jamie Foxx, perhaps.

  36. unlikely hood
    December 11, 2012

    Phantom – reading your post that appeared just above mine, I agree with your “bottom line.” That’s one reason this year is so exciting already.

  37. Robert A.
    December 11, 2012

    “I don’t actually think Phoenix is a lock. In the nominal Top 6, I still think there’s room for anyone except DDL to get bounced – by Richard Here or Suraj Sharma or Jamie Foxx, perhaps.”

    NOOOO!!!!! (Robert A. plugs ears and refuses to listen!)

    I just can’t see SAG leaving Phoenix off. I can’t picture a scenario where Hoffman and Adams get nominated and not Phoenix. I may have a blind spot because I loved The Master. I agree that DDL is in first place, but I think Phoenix is second most likely for a nomination.

    I agree with you guys about Cotillard. I’ve been iffy about her since November. I’m sticking by my late October theory that Riva/Cotillard/Wallis won’t all get nominated for the Oscar. (I’m getting way too attached to my own theory, by the way.)

  38. phantom
    December 11, 2012

    unlikely hood

    I’m already doubting my Washington-snub prediction, it would have been wiser to leave Hawkes off my list for reasons I’ve already stated above : Washington is a movie star with raves and Box Office, Hawkes is a character actor with raves and LACK OF Box Office. I don’t know, I have a weird hunch the Actors will go for Hawkes…of course that doesn’t mean they won’t go for Washington, too, but if BOTH make the cut, who will be ignored ? PR-challenged Phoenix OR Jackman whose film isn’t getting the early reviews that were expected OR Cooper who had never been taken seriously as an actor before and who is in a comedy (or at least dramedy) up against massive dramatic competition ? Urgh…all that and we haven’t even touched the viable surprises (Gere, Sharma, Hopkins, Foxx, Holland, Black, Murray etc.)…urgh…I might just give up trying to figure this out and just wait for the announcement. But, hey, I am one of those who ALWAYS whines the Awards-season is boring and predictable, FINALLY we actually have a race in all categories, so I guess I have no reason to complain.

  39. christiannnw
    December 11, 2012

    San Diego Film Critics winners are up: http://www.sdfcs.org MICHELLE WILLIAMS AHHHH!

  40. Evan
    December 11, 2012

    Zero Dark Thirty seems like it’s a one-woman show and so you’d guess it’d be left off, but these groups so often try to predict the Oscars that I think it’ll be included nonetheless. There’s often one ensemble that leaves you wondering…

  41. phantom
    December 11, 2012

    WOW, I’m starting to think we are underestimating ‘The Perks of Being a Wallflower’. Boston gave Best Supporting Actor to Ezra Miller, now Emma Watson got Best Supporting Actress from San Diego, both pulled off the victories with massive competition, the film has just scored an adapted screenplay BFCA-nod also against stiff competition (almost all strong BP-contenders are in adapted this year) and not that it’s THAT relevant, but its 8.4 imdb score is basically unheard of when it comes to teen films. This film probably has a much bigger and more passionate fanbase than I gave it credit for, so as I said earlier… SAG tends to go for underestimated child/youth performances.

  42. Josh
    December 11, 2012

    ANOTHER win for Emma Watson from San Diego and more love for Django from them as well with it up for Best Pic, Waltz winning supporting, up for screenplay as well as other tech categories.

    Django is gonna be up for best pic at the oscars. I hope.

  43. PJ
    December 11, 2012

    I hope my fellow actors are not taking the lazy vote for Arkin.

  44. December 11, 2012

    Really shocked here about Phoenix chances.
    He could easily be the number 2 . But, for me, he’s obiviously the frontrunner, the number 1.
    Day Lewis WON’T WIN A THIRD OSCAR!!! It’ so clear like water for me…

    And I always said “Perks” is a great contender. And I’ m very happy to see you thinking the same now!

  45. Josh
    December 11, 2012

    @Fabhinho Flapp

    I love Phoenix in The Master but he doesn’t beat DDL in my opinion and I think DDL wins his third and THAT is clear as water for me. Willing to put some money down on a friendly bet? :)

  46. Bball_Jake
    December 11, 2012

    I still don’t understand why the cast of TDKR isn’t in the mix of the SAGS, its the strongest Ensemble of the year. And I want Aubrey Plaza to get nominated for Safety Not Guaranteed.

  47. Claire
    December 11, 2012

    I’m with Robert and I cant live in a world where Phoenix is not nominated. He gave the most compelling performance of the season – for me. The guy just goes for it. I think DDL is also solid as is Denzel Washington. It’s those last 2 spots that have me stuck. Who gets in between Hawkes, Jackman and Cooper? Hawkes and Jackman? Hawkes and Cooper ? Cooper and Jackman? Ugh – dont want to wake up at 5 in the morning!!

  48. Zach
    December 11, 2012

    Really interesting to see Sasha have the balls/sense/foresight to predict a Hawkes snub. I don’t mean that as a knock against Hawkes at all as I have yet to see the movie and am sure he’s very deserving. But DDL is a lock; I don’t see Phoenix getting snubbed for this kind of performance and more importantly Weinstein behind him; I strongly believe Jackman will receive nominations from here on out; everyone loves Denzel and paid to see the movie; and Cooper isn’t solid, but worthy enough and likable enough that if they truly love the film, they won’t want to ignore him.

  49. Djangi
    December 12, 2012

    Foxx Jackman & Bardem
    please & thank you

  50. Sato
    December 12, 2012

    @phantom

    It’s great that you included Keira Knightley in your top 5… I really think she’s one of the best female performances this year. But are you really confident that she’ll get in despite the lack of Critic Awards support? I know that critic support might not be a factor in SAG choices but the fact that they snubbed Knightley for “Pride & Prejudice” and “Atonement” makes me think they’ll snub her again this time opting for a veteran choice in Helen Mirren for “Hitchcock”…

  51. phantom
    December 12, 2012

    Sato

    Unfortunately it is perfectly possible SAG won’t go for Knightley, because why would they, if they failed to nominate her for any of her critically acclaimed turns (Pride & Prejudice, Atonement, The Duchess, Never let me go, A Dangerous Method) BUT I think even with the film’s divisive reception, the Actors WILL recognize this performance : in my opinion she excels one of the most iconic, complex and difficult female roles EVER written and her peers should respond to that…hopefully, they will. As much respect as I have for her competition, I don’t think there is a Best Actress contender this year with a more challenging role than Anna. Keira Knightley doesn’t only deserve the nomination, for this performance she deserves to WIN. My two cents.

    P.S. Since the supposed top2-contenders (Chastain, Lawrence) are American in American films, I think Knightley as probably the strongest British contender, MIGHT win the Bafta. And if that happens (hopefully along with the SAG/GG nominations), it will be a whole different ball game. But that’s just a vague theory at the moment. For what it’s worth, Anna Karenina is most certainly the kind of role of a lifetime the Academy tends to go for.

  52. Uncle Jay
    December 12, 2012

    DiCaprio will score a nod here. They didn’t forget him for “J. Edgar” and a few years back, he did a double whammy with “Blood Diamond” and “The Departed”.

    Expect his name to be seen.

  53. arjecc
    December 12, 2012

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    The Master

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
    Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Denzel Washington (Flight)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Amy Adams (The Master)
    Ann Dowd (Compliance)
    Sally Field (Lincoln)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
    Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

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