SAG Nominations FULL LIST

19th ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS® NOMINATIONs

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES / Mark – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker – “FLIGHT” (Paramount Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Maya – “ZERO DARK THIRTY” (Columbia Pictures)
MARION COTILLARD / Stephanie – “RUST AND BONE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
HELEN MIRREN / Alma Reville – “HITCHCOCK” (Fox Searchlight)
NAOMI WATTS / Maria – “THE IMPOSSIBLE” (Summit Entertainment)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel – “ARGO” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JAVIER BARDEM / Silva – “SKYFALL” (Columbia Pictures)
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr. – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Lancaster Dodd – “THE MASTER” (The Weinstein Company)
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
HELEN HUNT / Cheryl – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Charlotte Bless – “THE PAPERBOY” (Millennium Entertainment)
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly – “THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL” (Fox Searchlight)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
ARGO (Warner Bros. Pictures)
BEN AFFLECK / Tony Mendez
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel
KERRY BISHÉ / Kathy Stafford
KYLE CHANDLER / Hamilton Jordan
RORY COCHRANE / Lee Schatz
BRYAN CRANSTON / Jack O’Donnell
CHRISTOPHER DENHAM / Mark Lijek
TATE DONOVAN / Bob Anders
CLEA DUVALL / Cora Lijek
VICTOR GARBER / Ken Taylor
JOHN GOODMAN / John Chambers
SCOOT McNAIRY / Joe Stafford
CHRIS MESSINA / Malinov

THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL (Fox Searchlight)
JUDI DENCH / Evelyn Greenslade
CELIA IMRIE / Madge Hardcastle
BILL NIGHY / Douglas Ainslie
DEV PATEL / Sonny Kapoor
RONALD PICKUP / Norman Cousins
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly
TOM WILKINSON / Graham Dashwood
PENELOPE WILTON / Jean Ainslie

LES MISÉRABLES (Universal Pictures)
ISABELLE ALLEN / Young Cosette
SAMANTHA BARKS / Eponine
SACHA BARON COHEN / Thénardier
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Madame Thénardier
RUSSELL CROWE / Javert
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine
DANIEL HUTTLESTONE / Gavroche
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Marius
AMANDA SEYFRIED / Cosette
AARON TVEIT / Enjolras
COLM WILKINSON / Bishop

LINCOLN (Touchstone Pictures)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln
JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT / Robert Todd Lincoln
HAL HOLBROOK / Preston Blair
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens
JAMES SPADER / W.N. Bilbo
DAVID STRATHAIRN / William Seward

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (The Weinstein Company)
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr.
ANUPAM KHER / Dr. Cliff Patel
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany
CHRIS TUCKER / Danny
JACKI WEAVER / Dolores

PRIMETIME TELEVISION

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)
WOODY HARRELSON / Steve Schmidt – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
ED HARRIS / John McCain – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CLIVE OWEN / Ernest Hemingway – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN“ (HBO)
BILL PAXTON / Randall McCoy – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Martha Gellhorn – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN” (HBO)
JULIANNE MOORE / Sarah Palin – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING / Eva Delectorskaya – “RESTLESS” (Sundance Channel)
SIGOURNEY WEAVER / Elaine Barrish Hammond – “POLITICAL ANIMALS” (USA)
ALFRE WOODARD / Ouiser – “STEEL MAGNOLIAS” (Lifetime)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
JESSICA LANGE / Sister Jude – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: ASYLUM” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson
CHRIS CALDOVINO / Tonino Sandrelli
BOBBY CANNAVALE / Gyp Rosetti
MEG CHAMBERS STEEDLE / Billie Kent
CHARLIE COX / Owen Sleater
JACK HUSTON / Richard Harrow
PATRICK KENNEDY / Dr. Douglas Mason
ANTHONY LACIURA / Eddie Kessler
KELLY MACDONALD / Margaret Thompson
GRETCHEN MOL / Gillian Darmody
VINCENT PIAZZA / Lucky Luciano
PAUL SPARKS / Mickey Doyle
MICHAEL STUHLBARG / Arnold Rothstein
SHEA WHIGHAM / Elias “Eli” Thompson
ANATOL YUSEF / Meyer Lansky

BREAKING BAD (AMC)
JONATHAN BANKS / Mike Ehrmantraut
BETSY BRANDT / Marie Schrader
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White
LAURA FRASER / Lydia Rodart-Quayle
ANNA GUNN / Skyler White
RJ MITTE / Walter White, Jr.
DEAN NORRIS / Hank Schrader
BOB ODENKIRK / Saul Goodman
AARON PAUL / Jesse Pinkman
JESSE PLEMONS / Todd
STEVEN MICHAEL QUEZADA / Gomez

DOWNTON ABBEY (PBS)
HUGH BONNEVILLE / Robert, Earl of Grantham
ZOE BOYLE / Lavinia Swire
LAURA CARMICHAEL / Lady Edith Crawley
JIM CARTER / Mr. Carson
BRENDAN COYLE / John Bates
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley
JESSICA BROWN FINDLAY / Lady Sybil Crawley
SIOBHAN FINNERAN / O’Brien
JOANNE FROGGATT / Anna
IAIN GLEN / Sir Richard Carlisle
THOMAS HOWES / William
ROB JAMES-COLLIER / Thomas
ALLEN LEECH / Tom Branson
PHYLLIS LOGAN / Mrs. Hughes
ELIZABETH McGOVERN / Cora, Countess of Grantham
SOPHIE McSHERA / Daisy
LESLEY NICOL / Mrs. Patmore
AMY NUTTALL / Ethel
DAVID ROBB / Dr. Clarkson
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham
DAN STEVENS / Matthew Crawley
PENELOPE WILTON / Isobel Crawley

HOMELAND (Showtime)
MORENA BACCARIN / Jessica Brody
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Finn Walden
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison
RUPERT FRIEND / Peter Quinn
DAVID HAREWOOD / David Estes
DIEGO KLATTENHOFF / Mike Faber
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody
DAVID MARCIANO / Virgil
NAVID NEGAHBAN / Abu Nazir
JACKSON PACE / Chris Brody
MANDY PATINKIN / Saul Berenson
ZULEIKHA ROBINSON / Roya Hammad
MORGAN SAYLOR / Dana Brody
JAMEY SHERIDAN / Vice President Walden

MAD MEN (AMC)
BEN FELDMAN / Michael Ginsberg
JAY R. FERGUSON / Stan Rizzo
JON HAMM / Don Draper
JARED HARRIS / Lane Pryce
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS / Joan Harris
VINCENT KARTHEISER / Pete Campbell
ROBERT MORSE / Bertram Cooper
ELISABETH MOSS / Peggy Olson
JESSICA PARÉ / Megan Calvet Draper
TEYONAH PARRIS / Dawn Chambers
KIERNAN SHIPKA / Sally Draper
JOHN SLATTERY / Roger Sterling
RICH SOMMER / Harry Crane
AARON STATON / Kenneth Cosgrove

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 ROCK (NBC)
SCOTT ADSIT / Pete Hornberger
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon
JUDAH FRIEDLANDER / Frank Rossitano
JANE KRAKOWSKI / Jenna Maroney
JACK McBRAYER / Kenneth Parcell
TRACY MORGAN / Tracy Jordan

THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
MAYIM BIALIK / Amy Farrah Fowler
KALEY CUOCO / Penny
JOHNNY GALECKI / Leonard Hofstadter
SIMON HELBERG / Howard Wolowitz
KUNAL NAYYAR / Rajesh Koothrappali
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper
MELISSA RAUCH / Bernadette Rostenkowski

GLEE (FOX)
DIANNA AGRON / Quinn Fabray
CHRIS COLFER / Kurt Hummel
DARREN CRISS / Blaine Anderson
SAMUEL LARSEN / Joe Hart
VANESSA LENGIES / Sugar Motta
JANE LYNCH / Sue Sylvester
JAYMA MAYS / Emma Pillsbury
KEVIN McHALE / Artie Abrams
LEA MICHELE / Rachel Berry
CORY MONTEITH / Finn Hudson
HEATHER MORRIS / Brittany Pierce
MATTHEW MORRISON / Will Schuester
ALEX NEWELL / Wade Adams/Unique
CHORD OVERSTREET / Sam Evans
AMBER RILEY / Mercedes Jones
NAYA RIVERA / Santana Lopez
MARK SALLING / Noah “Puck” Puckerman
HARRY SHUM, JR. / Mike Chang
JENNA USHKOWITZ / Tina Cohen-Chang

MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
AUBREY ANDERSON-EMMONS / Lily Tucker-Pritchett
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy
JESSE TYLER FERGUSON / Mitchell Pritchett
NOLAN GOULD / Luke Dunphy
SARAH HYLAND / Haley Dunphy
ED O’NEILL / Jay Pritchett
RICO RODRIGUEZ / Manny Delgado
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett
ARIEL WINTER / Alex Dunphy

NURSE JACKIE (Showtime)
MACKENZIE ALADJEM / Fiona Peyton
EVE BEST / Dr. Ellie O’Hara
BOBBY CANNAVALE / Dr. Mike Cruz
JAKE CANNAVALE / Charlie Cruz
PETER FACINELLI / Dr. Fitch Cooper
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton
DOMINIC FUMUSA / Kevin Peyton
ARJUN GUPTA / Sam
LENNY JACOBSON / Lenny
RUBY JERINS / Grace Peyton
PAUL SCHULZE / Eddie Walzer
ANNA DEAVERE SMITH / Gloria Akalitus
STEPHEN WALLEM / Thor Lundgren
MERRITT WEVER / Zoey Barkow

THE OFFICE (NBC)
LESLIE DAVID BAKER / Stanley Hudson
BRIAN BAUMGARTNER / Kevin Malone
CREED BRATTON / Creed Bratton
CLARKE DUKE / Clark
JENNA FISCHER / Pam Halpert
KATE FLANNERY / Meredith Palmer
ED HELMS / Andy Bernard
MINDY KALING / Kelly Kapoor
ELLIE KEMPER / Erin Hannon
ANGELA KINSEY / Angela Martin
JOHN KRASINSKI / Jim Halpert
JAKE LACEY / Peter
PAUL LIEBERSTEIN / Toby Flenderson
B.J. NOVAK / Ryan Howard
OSCAR NUÑEZ / Oscar Martinez
CRAIG ROBINSON / Darryl Philbin
PHYLLIS SMITH / Phyllis Vance
CATHERINE TATE / Nellie Bertram
RAINN WILSON / Dwight Schrute

SAG AWARDS HONORS FOR STUNT ENSEMBLES

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN (Columbia Pictures)
THE BOURNE LEGACY (Universal Pictures)
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (Warner Bros. Pictures)
LES MISÉRABLES (Universal Pictures)
SKYFALL (Columbia Pictures)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
BREAKING BAD (AMC)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
SONS OF ANARCHY (FX)
THE WALKING DEAD (AMC)

LIFE ACHIEVEMENT AWARD

Screen Actors Guild 49th Annual Life Achievement Award
DICK VAN DYKE

SAG Awards No Guts No Glory

Next Story »

SAG Nominees Reactions Statements

237 Comments

  1. December 12, 2012

    Does anyone know of a stream?

  2. December 12, 2012
  3. December 12, 2012

    Ty Ryan

  4. December 12, 2012

    Ahaha Les Mis did have a stunt nom. lol

  5. SJ
    December 12, 2012

    The just announced stunt nominees matched the leaked version. I guess the leaked list is real

  6. December 12, 2012

    Les Mis gets in for Stunt Ensemble over The Avengers.

    You just know what’s coming next…

  7. December 12, 2012

    Looks like the nominees indeed got leaked. At least the stunt ensemble ones! (No Avengers, wow).

  8. Uncle Jay
    December 12, 2012

    The Walking Dead!!

  9. December 12, 2012

    You guys are no fun, looking at leaks. :P

  10. mecid
    December 12, 2012

    it seems it is going how we expected :)

  11. December 12, 2012

    Anyone else having sound problems with the stream?

  12. JP
    December 12, 2012

    This live stream is every year mediocre and they can’t fix it.

  13. December 12, 2012

    Leaky leaky leaks all the way!

  14. December 12, 2012

    They were all leaked! Lol

  15. December 12, 2012

    Hmm… Looks like SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK is in it to win it.

  16. Federico
    December 12, 2012

    Wow, no Phoenix.

  17. Koleś
    December 12, 2012

    Nothing fof Django. No Adams and no Phoenix, but Hoffman is in. Dang.

  18. Waltizzle!!!
    December 12, 2012

    seems as though these nominations were NENE leaked!!!!!!

  19. Filipe
    December 12, 2012

    The Joaquin Phoenix snub is one of the most outrageous ever! He should win the damn thing!

  20. Yogsss
    December 12, 2012

    Bardem! YES! Also woah, no ZD30 for ensemble.

  21. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    The only surprise I like is the leaving off of Phoenix, which, frankly, isn’t that much of a surprise. I figured it would be he or Hawkes who was the odd man out.

    Sad to see ZDT off Ensemble, but if the voters didn’t get the screener in time, I guess that’s the way it goes.

    Wow, Hollywood really does like Nicole Kidman.

  22. Uncle Jay
    December 12, 2012

    The leak was correct, which means the screeners for “Zero Dark Thirty” (1 nod to Chastain and no ensemble?!?!) and “Django” weren’t seen.

    Boring nods. I hope the Globes and BAFTAS are more exciting.

  23. Lara
    December 12, 2012

    So glad Marion Cotillard made it! Now people will finaly understand she had her nomination in the bag since may.

  24. December 12, 2012

    Naomi AND Nicole. Epic win.

    No Joaquin, no Emmanuelle, no Amy. Epic fail.

    You just knew they’d like Best Exotic and hate The Master lol.

  25. Robert A.
    December 12, 2012

    Ugh! And just when I was theorizing last night about how Phoenix was safe! Ah well. I just can’t see this result being duplicated at the Oscars. The Oscars are dependent on those #1 votes, and Phoenix seems more likely to get #1 votes than many of the other actor contenders. But I may just be wrong again…

  26. JP
    December 12, 2012

    kkkkkk They nominated Nicole Kidman! It won’t be only the Globes then! And what a poor showing by The Weinstein Co. today… but Harvey will fix it in the next weeks till january 10. And… relieved Anthony Hopkins missed… he definitely doesn’t deserve or need that nomination.

  27. Zooey
    December 12, 2012

    Cotillard and especially MIRREN over Riva? Mirren gets nominated for mediocre work AGAIN! After The Last Station fiasco again?!?!?!

    Kidman’s nomination is a JOKE.

    No Phoenix is probably the BIGGEST travesty they’ve done! Bradley Cooper?! Denzel Washington’s performance? Come on, have they seen it??!

    The SAG winners will be:
    Les Miserables
    Jackman
    Lawrence OR Chastain
    Tommy Lee Jones OR Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Anne Hathaway

  28. jorge
    December 12, 2012

    OMG MY KIDMAN IS NOMINATED IN SUPPORTING!!!!

    PLS OSCARS DO THE SAME SHE WAS TERRIFIC!!!

    GLAD TO SEE AMY ADAMS SNUBBBED, I HAVE A FEELING THAT SHE WILL SNUBBED FOR THAT OVERRATED PERFORMANCE….

    MARION IS IN JUST BECAUSE SHE IS POPULAR AMONG THE ACTORS, ACADEMY WILL PUT RIVA IN HER PLACE…

    STILL JAVIER BARDEM? IT IS WORTHY? I MEAN HE WAS FINE BUT OSCAR-WORTHY?

    HELEN MIRREN? I MEAN I LOVE HER BUT NOT HAPPENING

    I RATHER TO SEE RACHEL WEISZ THAN NAOMI WATTS

  29. Koleś
    December 12, 2012

    So it’s Lincoln – 4, SLP – 4, Les Miserables – 4 (hey, stunts count, right?:))

  30. Glenn UK
    December 12, 2012

    I guess Best Exotic Marigold Hotel should be a consideration for a Picture nom at Oscar now. I think I put that down in my predix – LOL. Poor show for The Master and Django and where did Nicole Kidman come from? There has been little or not talk of her! No Amour love either – scandalous!

  31. twodollars
    December 12, 2012

    I expected more love for The Master. No Phoenix for actor or Adams for supporting actress. Not thrilled with Watts getting a SAG nod. I was hoping Weisz would slip in.

  32. December 12, 2012

    When I saw Supporting Actor, it just hit me that they probably just picked who they think are the best actors in contention and didn’t bother watching the damn movies.

    This is not how I thought this year was going to go. At all.

    Pfft. I’m gonna go get breakfast.

  33. JP
    December 12, 2012

    Weinstein will fix things here. Joaquim and Amy Adams will enter this game in the Oscar…. but Ann Dowd now is very likely to be overlooked by… Nicole!

    From the others, I think John Hawkes, Helen Mirren, Javier and Maggie Smith miss the Oscar nominations.

  34. mecid
    December 12, 2012

    The same as the leaked ones :)

  35. Aaron
    December 12, 2012

    What is this news about the nominations being leaked? Can anyone extrapolate? I feel like I am living under a rock…

    Obviously the actors were NOT feeling The Master which is a CRYING shame. Phoenix’s snub is EGREGIOUS. UGH!

    Nicole Kidman?!?!? HOLY SHIT. That was wayyy ballsy! Props to the guild for honoring her!

    So it looks like Bradley Cooper is receiving an Oscar nomination. I’m hoping the actors in the Academy can come to Joaquin Phoenix’s defense and help him get an Oscar nomination, but it will probably come at the expense of Washington or Hawkes.

    One of the best actress ladies is getting left out come Oscar time in lieu for Emmanuelle Riva. And I’m thinking it’s going to be Helen Mirren.

    Really disappointed Best Exotic Marigold Hotel got in over Perks of Being a Wallflower or Moonrise Kingdom. Not surprised, but really felt like the latter had a really good shot.

  36. SJ
    December 12, 2012

    SAG ensemble is their least reliable marker for Oscar nominations but you have to go all the way back to their first year to find an Oscar best picture winner(Braveheart in 1995) was not nominated for SAG ensemble. The year No country for old men won, it was the only best picture nominee that received a SAG nomination. Not good news for Zero Dark Thirty, but hopefully it’s because they didn’t get the screeners in time.

  37. twodollars
    December 12, 2012

    On the TV side, only 1/2 of Modern Family cast got nods. Love that Sophia is one of them.

  38. ang
    December 12, 2012

    what a shame Phoenix wasn’t nominated!
    cotillard over riva??
    and no ensemble comedy nomination for parks and rec???

  39. Chung
    December 12, 2012

    Lincoln might have a shot now. ZDT, no ensemble? The Hurt Locker did get one. SAG is waging a war against ZDT like L.A film critics??lol

  40. Miley
    December 12, 2012

    Screeners were sent for ZDT but not Django– many of my friends on the SAG nominating committe loved ZDT but felt the movie is really not much of an ensemble piece (despite having a large cast) and is more of an actor (chastain) driven film

  41. Bella
    December 12, 2012

    Uh… Helen Mirren over Riva? No Wallis? Nicole Kidman instead of Ann Dowd. No Adams.

    No Phoenix… Really?

    Javier Bardem for Skyfall. He was great, don’t get me wrong. But…

    Wow.

  42. Christophe
    December 12, 2012

    They must adore Maggie Smith: 4 noms with Downton Abbey and Best Marigold! As much as the leading movies.

  43. PaulH
    December 12, 2012

    Star frakking abound…FOUR nominations for Maggie Smith. Two for Kidman, whose most memorable scene in The Paperboy was taking a whizz on a prone Zac Efron? Shame, SAG. And nice tossing a mini-crumb to TDKR when The Avengers had a lot more stuntwork.

  44. Radich
    December 12, 2012

    As expected, Lincoln got in, so I am happy. And happy to see Javier Bardem nominated as BSA as well. Nice.

    I am sorry to see no love for Phoenix by his own peers, though.

  45. Evelyn Garver
    December 12, 2012

    I have thought for a while that Oscar nomination chances for Phoenix depended on how the Academy felt about the film itself. Does anyone have any insights on that?

  46. PaulH
    December 12, 2012

    Bella, Amour was little else but a 2-hour + death scene, and that’s what turned SAG off, I guess.

  47. December 12, 2012

    Hooray for Nicole Kidman!

  48. PaulH
    December 12, 2012

    Radich and all Phoenix partisans; the nimrod sealed his own fate when he went off his virtual meds and ripped the Oscars a new one.

  49. superkk
    December 12, 2012

    wow i am shocked by a LOT of these omissions. no dowd. REALLY? just the other day i thought she was safe and a lock *sigh* no AMY ADAMS?! wow. no phoenix. we knew wallis and henry were ineligible for the sag for beats(ok understandable) not one person from django unchained. im shocked mirren knocked out riva!!! where did kidman and maggie smith come from?? definitely an unpredictable race. got my head spinning. sags 85% of the time determine who will be nominated. i just am floored because we all know the globes are a complete joke and dont mean squat lol.

  50. December 12, 2012

    The Avengers had a lot more stuntwork.

    it’s not an award for Most Stuntwork.

  51. Kane
    December 12, 2012

    Maybe all the “awards bashing” is finally catching up to him…but in WHAT WORLD is Phoenix and Adams left out of the Screen Actors Guild nominees? The Master is absolutely an actor’s showcase and the “processing scene” is an actor’s dream and Phoenix nailed the hell out of it. I loved Bradley Cooper and have yet to see Hugh Jackman (and I’m sure he’s in fine form) but those two over Phoenix? This might spell something bad for The Master at the Oscars.

  52. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    Someone told me “beware the British bump” come BAFTA time. I don’t think we could be much more British than this with all the love for Best Exotic, Les Mis, Mirren, Downton Abbey, etc.

    I think you should expect to see Best Exotic sniping some of the British vote though. That’s why if I were a betting man, I’d pick Lincoln for Best Ensemble. I’m NOT a betting man, by the way.

    Big winners: Lincoln, SLP, Les Mis
    Held firm: Argo, ZDT [arrived on scene way later than THL which got a nom, I didn't expect it to though]
    Losers: Django, Moonrise, The Master, lots of other stuff

    I don’t think all the screeners made it to the 2,000 folks who nominated. That’s a bad job by the studios, IMO.

  53. Robert A.
    December 12, 2012

    I agree with the people who are saying that Riva will most likely still get an Oscar nomination. Also, Wallis wasn’t eligible for a SAG nomination, so we still don’t quite know how she factors into the race (she got a BFCA nomination yesterday, and we’ll see if she can swing a Globe nod tomorrow). I’m willing to bet money that the SAG Best Actress list is not going to be the same as the Oscar Best Actress list. One or two SAG-nominated actresses will miss out on an Oscar nomination.

    My guess for the Oscar nominated list: Lawrence. Chastain. Riva. Watts. Then Cotillard/Wallis/Mirren duke it out for #5.

  54. Radich
    December 12, 2012

    @ PaulH

    I completely understand that, but it’s still sad. I am not sorry for feeling disappointed.

  55. Jim
    December 12, 2012

    Worst nomination of the morning has got to be Mirren for that Hithcock crapfest, but thrilled for Bardem, Kidman and the Amy Adams snub.

  56. Aragorn
    December 12, 2012

    I dont understand all this “Helen Mirren” bashing now…It did not come out of nowhere…Some people had already put her in top 5, mainly because she is Helen Mirren!

    I also hope that this will end the “wishful thinking” called Middle of Nowhere…

    Nicole Kidman is a nice surprise as she was good in that movie (I believe again many people say “nay” without even seeing the movie).

    At least there will be some tension on the nomination morning. Still believe that Amy Adams may sneak in.

  57. bob w
    December 12, 2012

    I’m genuinely surprised by the lack of love for The Master, but other than that it’s not too surprising. Except maybe the Mirren and Kidman noms… but that’s not SHOCKing.

  58. GoldenRam
    December 12, 2012

    Wait…Lee Pace didn’t do enough to be in Lincoln’s ensemble? Le Miz has like 800 people listed there.

    No new TV shows here…all snubbed. Not even VEEP.

    Chastain is do not winning here. Go Jennifer.

  59. Evan
    December 12, 2012

    Joaquin gave the best male performance of the year. Did they even watch the movie? Are you kidding me?

  60. Fat Tony
    December 12, 2012

    The ‘Beasts’ cast were ineligible, correct?

    and Phoenix sealed his own fate with all his “I hate the Oscars” talk. (and probably his mumbling as well. and the fact that it’s Anderson’s least satisfactory film so far.)

  61. gbocampo
    December 12, 2012

    Ensemble: Les Miserables
    Actor: Hugh Jackman
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Supporting Actor: Robert de Niro
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

  62. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    Aragorn – Being left off the NAACP Image Awards noms effectively killed Middle of Nowhere. The NAACP’s “image” is decidedly tarnished.

    I’m sad that Richard Gere didn’t get nommed for Arbitage. And Ann Dowd, natch.

    I think Riva is the mostly likely non-SAG nominee to creep into the Oscar race. Best Actress is way unsettled — ditch Mirren, pick up Riva. BSA is far from locked down too.

    The Golden Globes will rebuild some buzz for the ladies and gents and films that are down and out right now (mainly because they have so many damn categories that there won’t be many people left out).

  63. superkk
    December 12, 2012

    globes wont clear up anything for best actor/actress. they will throw lawrence and cooper into best actor/actress in comedy and musical. same goes for jackman. they will probably throw mirren in there as well. its what they do with supporting that will probably determine who really has a chance.

  64. Patryk
    December 12, 2012

    Phoenix omission is disgraceful. In what universe is his performance less brilliant than Denzel Washington’s or Bradley Cooper’s?

    Kidman getting in must be a mistake.

    Riva not being honored is astounding.

    Les Miserable for Stunt Ensemble? Huh?

  65. December 12, 2012

    BFCA: Jessica Chastain

    Golden Globes
    Drama: Naomi Watts
    Comedy: Jennifer Lawrence

    Sag: Jennifer Lawrence

    Bafta: Riva

    And the Oscar goes to…
    Naomi Watts…

  66. AD
    December 12, 2012

    I love SAG politcs you sell yourself to them and they nominate you, Watts (for craying in bed for 2 hours) Mirren (for a mediocre film again she is become the new Dench) and Kidman(?). Also no Adams, no Phoenix? As usual these people baffle me…I am happy though that Wallis and Riva will be back soon enough.

  67. The Dude
    December 12, 2012

    Holy crap, DDL will really win a 3rd Oscar, won’t he? I figured that since Hawkes wasn’t well known enough, Washington won’t win a 3rd before him with a much less acclaimed performance, and Cooper and Jackman would be considered too lightweight, Phoenix had the best chance of beating him, but with him absent of the SAG, I don’t see how.

    And 5 Oscar winners in the best supporting actor category, that’s gotta be a first.

  68. December 12, 2012

    Where´s supportings for TV?
    This list is fake.
    No Phoenix, no Adams?
    I can´t believe.
    It´s fake!

  69. GoOnNow
    December 12, 2012

    I’m so happy for Maggie Smith and Nicole Kidman, I almost cried!

    The Maggie nomination in Supporting – I saw it coming,

    Kidman – I did not, so I’m just IN HEAVEN right now ;)

    Shame they did not nominate Riva, but this will teach some of the arrogant folk around not to be so cocky next time.

    And by they way, as I said back in October:

    -> of the Cotillard/Riva/Wallis unorthodox trio, they will recognize only 1, was I right? Yes I was.

    Let’s see what the Globes have to say tomorrow.

  70. L Ron Hubbard
    December 12, 2012

    No nomination for Joaquin…. my servants Tom and John have done well. #BoycottTheMaster…. They through Hoffman a bone, didn’t want to make it look to obvious.

  71. Ari
    December 12, 2012

    Is Jacki Weaver still not able to be nominated because she isn’t a SAG member?

  72. Carl
    December 12, 2012

    No Phoenix, No DiCaprio, No Adams. This is just plain sad!!!!!

  73. PaulH
    December 12, 2012

    Fabinho, there are no supporting categories for TV, only movies. One of SAG’s quirks, chalk that up to…

  74. Fat Tony
    December 12, 2012

    @Ari

    Um…Jacki Weaver IS nominated in Ensemble.

  75. Daveylow
    December 12, 2012

    I’m really not surprised by the Phoenix omission. It’s a polarizing performance. And Hoffman should not be in supporting.

    The Kidman nomination for The Paperboy surprises me.

    I’m happy for Naomi Watts. I think Tom Holland or Ewan McGregor should have been nominated, too. The Impossible is a wonderful film.

  76. Montage
    December 12, 2012

    What’s this regret abt Amy Adam not nominated and nicole Kidman being nominated instead?
    ! Amy Adams is just over over rated, Nicole Kidman deserves this nomination!! Totally!! Hollywood finally gets it!!

  77. Carl
    December 12, 2012

    Is this a trick by Harvey?!?!?!!?

  78. Robert A
    December 12, 2012

    “And by they way, as I said back in October:

    -> of the Cotillard/Riva/Wallis unorthodox trio, they will recognize only 1, was I right? Yes I was.”

    Hey, I said that! You mean someone else is having my brilliant and original thoughts?! Or maybe we’re just doppelgangers?

    You’re not right yet, though, in terms of Oscar nominations. We have yet to see what direction AMPAS will take. I think one from the “unorthodox trio” will be nominated and maybe two, but not all three.

    I need new material. I’ve been typing this speculation way too often. I’m going to mock me if all three of the trio do make the Oscar cut.

  79. John
    December 12, 2012

    Joaquin gave the best performance of the year. Lincoln was an overrated piece of garbage. DDL playing Lincoln was going to be hard to screw up. Joaquin took on a deep and complex role, within one of the most thought-provoking films in years. This is a clear snub because Hollywood does not like being made to look stupid- so I guess he did it to himself with I’m Still Here, which in its own way was an amazing performance.

    Anne Dowd’s omission is another travesty. The SAGs is all about friends voting for friends.

    And Javier Bardem for Skyfall…

  80. Christophe
    December 12, 2012

    The omission of Moonrise really hurts. It was so much better than Marigold, should’ve been nommed for Ensemble.

  81. Someone
    December 12, 2012

    WHERE IS PHOENIX?
    “Zero Dark Thirty” won’t win Oscar without nomination for best cast.
    And that’s all we know now. :P

  82. Claire
    December 12, 2012

    It’s funny because I have 4/5 on every category,

    Best exotic… over The master
    Cooper over Phoenix
    Watts over Riva
    Kidman (WTF?) over Adams
    Bardem over DiCaprio (a bad guy for another)

    Not really surprised except for Kidman maybe. IMO, in the actress category, 3 actresses could potentially win (Chastain-Lawrence-Cotillard) Chastain is the frontrunner here, Lawrence’s age makes me a bit worried notably among actors or they could give it to Cotillard because if they didn’t gave it to her back in 2008, she proved she’s not a one time thing and she eventually won the oscar so they could make up for it and since she shot with every fucking A-lister in Hollywood (DiCaprio, Bale, Mann, Nolan, Depp, Day Lewis, Allen, Marshall, Dench, Winslett…). That’s a freaking good “entourage” to have.

  83. houstonrufus
    December 12, 2012

    Jesus. I’m sort of not surprised, but the snubs of Phoenix, Adams and Riva are egregious. But again, this is SAG. They have their favorites like Smith. But happy for Watts and Kidman.

  84. December 12, 2012

    It’s fucking rude that Joaquin Phoenix was snubbed! This is the second year in a row where these bitches left me breathless with their stupidity!

    Am I about to live in a world where Bradley Cooper will be an Oscar nominee while Michael Fassbender still isn’t? The hell?

  85. tonyr
    December 12, 2012

    You would think actors of all people wouldn’t give a shit about Phoenix’s comments, but it seems they might’ve. I mean, seriously? This is as bad as Fassbender’s snub last year. Maybe industry people just don’t like performances where the actor masterbates frequently.

  86. December 12, 2012

    It´s true.
    Im really speechless.
    No matter personal choices, but…

    Where´s Phoenix?
    Where´s Adams?
    Where´s Riva?
    Where´s Dowd?
    Where´s DiCaprio?

    Ok, theu will shine at Oscars, (maybe not Dowd…), but it´s really a shame!

  87. Bryce Forestieri
    December 12, 2012

    When are we gonna start seeing the JESSICA CHASTAIN backlash? lol

  88. tony r
    December 12, 2012

    Can someone explain to me why Dicaprio is getting snubbed AGAIN? It made sense in previous years because he either wasn’t deserving (Inception, Shutter Island) or the film he was starring in disappointed critically (J. Edgar), but this time? He’s deserving AND the movie is great.

  89. Lila
    December 12, 2012

    Here’s a stat for Sasha! Of the 50 individual acting noms, only 3 are for actors of color: Denzel Washington, Alfre Woodard and Sofia Vergara (Bardem is white Spaniard, he’s not Latino, in case you are wondering). That’s 2 down from last year (Davis, Spencer, Bichir, Fishburne and Vergara).

    Shutting out Middle of Nowhere and disqualifying Beasts has had its consequences! Bummer! =/

  90. JP
    December 12, 2012

    This noms were likely a dead shot in the head of Zero Dark Thirty’s BP win chances. Argo and SLP survived… and the critics are kind of putting Lincon in front right now considering Les Mis’ reviews. Jeff Wells must be prepared…. Lincoln IS the frontrunner.

  91. efe
    December 12, 2012

    HOW CAN THEY SNUB WALLIS? did they see the film? what’s going on?

    and Denzel being nominated over Joaquin is a joke. JOKE. Adams and Dowd should have been nominated.

  92. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    No MCconaughey, but Bardem, DeNiro, Arkin get in?

    And Mirren?
    Maggie Smith for doing the same thing she’s been doing in every movie for the last 30 years, but no Dowd?
    It’s popularity contest isn’t it?
    Bardem and Mirren have become like Streep – great actors but they tend to get noms for even their mediocre work. MM had Killer Joe, Magic Mike, The Paperboy, Bernie – was fantastic in each one…
    Bardem plays another psycho while on vacation in London and gets in. Too bad.
    Sorry Penelope, your ex deserved it more this year.
    I haven’t even seen the Riva film, but I have a feeling from people’s love here and elsewhere that she probably should have taken Mirren’s place.
    Not a fan of the Master, but Cooper’s performance was not more interesting or oscar-baity than Phoenix.
    Oh well, that makes Hathaway Sally’s real threat, and he and DDL are more securely poised to make Oscar history.

  93. GoOnNow
    December 12, 2012

    @ Robert A, you’re right, this is not the Oscars, I just wanted my moment of cockyness I suppose :D

    Btw, If these noms are not fake, then 1 more point needs to be made:

    A couple of years ago when Rabbit Hole came out some people here (I won’t mention any names) were spreading manure slide theories on how SAG doesn’t like Kidman, how she wasn’t even nominated for Lead in Moulin Rouge! and so on.

    But what do you know! It is SAG that brings her Paperboy work to life ;) well done actors.

  94. December 12, 2012

    After all this shit, happy for Kidman´s excellent performance getting a nom.

  95. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Critics top 10 lists site has updated, they have no collated 30 lists (the final tally will be way over 800 eventually)

    But if it’s like last year, the top 10 doesn’t change that much, although some mainstream films gain and foreign films drop as time passes (I guess the later critics live in the hinterlands and might not get to screen all the foreign films, or maybe their tastes are just different)

    But don’t expect the final list to look that different…

    http://criticstop10.com/

  96. mel
    December 12, 2012

    @efe who would want to nominate Wallis when you can nominate Jennifer Lawrence who will give you more ratings for a mediocre performance?

  97. Carl
    December 12, 2012

    @Tony R

    They are probably shutting him off for next year’s Wolf of wall street or gatsby. enough with the snubs right?!?!?!?!

  98. Geraldo
    December 12, 2012

    I’m Sorry, Skyfall haters, but Bardem deserved this nod. Oh, and I didn’t see anything special on Arkin’s performance.

  99. Robert A.
    December 12, 2012

    “Can someone explain to me why Dicaprio is getting snubbed AGAIN? It made sense in previous years because he either wasn’t deserving (Inception, Shutter Island) or the film he was starring in disappointed critically (J. Edgar), but this time? He’s deserving AND the movie is great.”

    Have you seen Django? I think DiCaprio’s absence from the list does make sense. 1) Django Unchained is such a late release that a lot of voters may not have seen the movie yet. 2) There’s also talk of Waltz and Jackson’s work in the film, which is causing that “internal competition” thing. When Waltz was moved to supporting, it seems like he’s stolen a lot of whatever thunder DiCaprio may have had.

  100. John
    December 12, 2012

    Thoughts:

    -Whatever you think of Hitchcock, I think that Mirren was wonderful in it and SAG members clearly love her.

    -Kidman getting in? Great. It’s nice to know that stellar actresses giving stellar performances in otherwise crap can still get nominated for the work they give.

    Maggie Smith. She is a legend. Her performance in Downton is the glue/heart of it and her funny/controversial performance in Best Exotic obviously made an impression. At least she has a character arc. And I think that commentary on her “doing the same thing for 30 years” is a little unfair.

  101. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Oh, and Metacritic updated too. Not much new, but ZDT now has 7 100′s out of 11 reviews and is up to 99.

    I really think ZDT is a near lock for Best Pic. And I think Les Miz has the only shot of defeating ZDT. Lincoln, while probably the #2 option overall doesn’t have much of a shot, in my opinion, because I think most who like Lincoln will like ZDT more. Les Miz will get lots of #1 votes and maybe #2 after Silver Linings but I think Les Miz will be ranked low when it’s not in the top 2. I suspect Argo will get the most mentions in the top 3, but will probably get the fewest #1 votes of the top 5 five possibilities so it will be eliminated too quickly.

    I know, I really am talking out of my ass here, but that’s the way I see it.

  102. Carl
    December 12, 2012

    There is a reason why Joaquin, Amy and Leo arent on these lists. :) Bradley Cooper wasn’t that crazy compared to Freddie Quell, and Bardem is like a blonde-dyed Anton Chigurgh! :( Screw SAG!

  103. John
    December 12, 2012

    Now, does that mean that I think Maggie Smith deserves the nod or would make my top 5. No, not necessarily. But this will likely be her last or nearly last crack at a nom in a career that has been going on for over 50 years.

  104. @Pokernatic
    December 12, 2012

    So what about the rumor that the Weinstein Company did not send any Django Screeners to SAG Members?

  105. Bennett
    December 12, 2012

    Just like I’m being telling you guys, they just WON´T put Helen Mirren aside, she’s one of the most beloved actress there is out there, with here in America AND in Britain, so it’s asking too much to consider she’ll be out.

    Mirren is going to get her Academy Awards nominations… that’s a solid task.

    And now… what the fuck” Joaquin Phonix got left behind? They must have commited a mistake, I’m sure SAG will correct it with a press release any time soon.

  106. Radich
    December 12, 2012

    Exactly what I thought, tonyr. I’m more disappointed because I would’ve thought the actors branch would be more understanding of Phoenix’s feelings, or at least take what he said with a grain of salt and recognize his craft, the work, and not a brain fart. But since we don’t live in an ideal world, this is what we’ve got.

    As I see it, Phoenix and DDL would make for an interesting race. I don’t want to think about a world where DDL won’t win his 3rd Oscar because he is British, or because he already has two and they want to give to an American first. Or whatever the fvck reason they might find to not give him a deserving 3rd Oscar. Oh well, we’ll see.

  107. A.J
    December 12, 2012

    Did anyone really expect Zero Dark Thirty to be nominated? It’s not an ensemble movie.

  108. PaulH
    December 12, 2012

    Geraldo: “I’m Sorry, Skyfall haters, but Bardem deserved this nod.”

    Tom Hardy (as Bane) would profoundly disagree with you.

  109. Carl
    December 12, 2012

    @Pokernatic
    So what about the rumor that the Weinstein Company did not send any Django Screeners to SAG Members?

    Might be true! Most of the Weinstein bets arent nominated.

  110. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    Why are there so few names on the Ensemble for Lincoln?? It has 7 compared to around 12 or so for Les Mis and Argo. The fact that Gloria Reuben, Michael Stuhlbarg, John Hawkes, Jackie Earle Haley and some others aren’t on there really kind of bugs me.

  111. Nic V
    December 12, 2012

    There is not one unpopular actor nominated and there is not one polarizing performance in the bunch. And anyone who questions the talent of anyone in that list is really grinding a wheel because their favorite didn’t get acknowledged. I was pulling for Riva and that’s the only argument I would put up for these nominations. I’m sitting looking at this and thinking wow what a group of actors. Names alone make it a publicists dream. Day Lewis, Jackman, Washington, Hawkes, and Cooper. It’s kind of interesting for me from that angle. Chastain, Lawrence, Coitllard, Mirren, and Watts.

    The only thing I’d ask is that people get Anne Hathaway away from the TV Talk Shows she talks too much and is going to hurt her own chances if she doesn’t shut up. It’s almost like each talk show is a “performance” for her.

  112. GoOnNow
    December 12, 2012

    @ John, I agree with you

    the “last 30 years” comment evidently comes from a person who is not well acquainted with Smith’s career.

    2012 – 30 = 1982

    Since 1982 Maggie has had interesting and non-Maggiesh roles.

    Some examples: Suddenly Last Summer, The Lonely Passion of Judith Hearne (probably her best performance), My House in Umbria.

    And in fact, her character in “Nanny McPhee Returns”, while being very uninteresting, is again not your typical Maggie performance.

  113. A.J
    December 12, 2012

    To be nominated in Ensemble you need to have your own title card at the beginning and/or the end of the film. Aka you need to have your name be the only name on the screen

  114. KT
    December 12, 2012

    This is just devastating. So many “name” nominees. Too many Oscar winners. I think this shows you how impossibly difficult it is to break through as an up and coming artist/not quite A-lister. God I hope the Academy gives credit where credit is due. I honestly think Zero Dark Thirty didn’t get the ensemble nod since Bigelow chose to again steer away from name recognition. Probably wasn’t seen by everyone too, which was Django’s problem.

  115. Lila
    December 12, 2012

    Other staggering stat for Sasha! Of the 50 individuals complaining about DiCaprio being snubbed, only 3 actually saw Django Unchained.

  116. Carl
    December 12, 2012

    @Lila You’re going to eat dirt, come Oscar nominations time.

  117. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    AJ – Thank you for that explanation. Lincoln really owed its cast better than only 7 “lone” title cards. I am particularly sorry that Gloria Reuben and Michael Stuhlbarg are not acknowledged. But there are at least 5 others that could have helped Lincoln’s cause in this vote (though I won’t pretend that it’s as important as the 13th Amendment vote in the House).

  118. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    ‘The only thing I’d ask is that people get Anne Hathaway away from the TV Talk Shows she talks too much and is going to hurt her own chances if she doesn’t shut up. It’s almost like each talk show is a “performance” for her.’
    lol….
    That’s fine with me, because I want Sally to win SO Freakin Bad…..
    And John. I love Maggie Smith – but she’ll be nominated again, just Mirren and Dench for that matter. The only thing that would possibly get in her way would be a health issue)
    The UK treat their elder actresses like institutions – and more importantly, they work consistently.
    There will be endless Brit/period-costume dramas to come. (Merchant/Ivory are still alive right??)Smith will work and be nominated again.
    Your argument about it possibly being her last chance could apply more to Field. Unless you’re Meryl, Hollywood does not cast woman of a certain age. Spacek, Lange – all her peers from the 80s….they’re lucky to play somebody’s estranged grandma in a Hallmark or Lifetime movie..maybe a tv series. But Oscars? The window of opportunity closes shut for these women after 50.
    Unless Lincoln signals some kind of resurgence for Field, this could be her last shot – albeit her third…but still, Smith has Oscars too so that argument is moot.

  119. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    Yvette – Meryl Streep is no spring chicken.

  120. phantom
    December 12, 2012

    LOVE
    Naomi Watts (finally she is looking good for a long-overdue second Oscar-nod)
    Jessica Chastain (nice to see her emerging as one of the best and most consistent)
    Hugh Jackman (criminally underrated, remarkably talented actor FINALLY in the mix)
    John Hawkes (I was worried the film will be too small, I’m glad they went for it)
    Helen Hunt (ditto)

    HATE
    no Keira Knightley (6th critically acclaimed performance, still no SAG-nod)
    no Amy Adams (she was pitch-perfect in this and once again, played against type)
    no Joaquin Phoenix (so I guess ‘the rant’ DID hurt, I see no other explanation)
    no Ewan McGregor (CRIMINALLY underrated, consistently great actor)
    no The Dark Knight Rises (one of the most impressive ensembles of all time)
    Alan Arkin (unspectacularly good, in my opinion NOT Awards-worthy)

    SHOCKED
    The all-over-the-place supporting actor lineup matched the BFCA-lineup (minus the 6th nominee, McConaughey), I expected at least a few new names here.

    SUMMARY
    - Even if the screeners were late, this is NOT good for supposed frontrunner Zero Dark Thirty. No film could win Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nod, at least not since the first year of SAG Awards (1995 – Braveheart).
    - Life of Pi doesn’t have the Actors which isn’t a big surprise, but still, it is supposed to be a serious BP-contender and unless it pulls off the PGA/DGA/WGA trio of nominations, it will be tough to land any important Oscar-nods in the end.
    - The Master isn’t doing as well as it should. Even if it is divisive, the performances were universally praised. Ironically Hoffman was snubbed by the LAFCA and the Phoenix-Adams duo won there, here they didn’t even make the top5, Hoffman did. I still think they could sneak in at the Oscars, but it will be hard without the SAG. Is Harvey playing favorites again ?
    - Django Unchained needs damn strong Golden Globe-love tomorrow or its perception is down the toilet.
    - Helen Mirren shouldn’t have been underestimated, she now has the crucial SAG-nod, she will probably pull off the BAFTA-nod, as well, and the Golden Globe nomination shouldn’t be a problem, either. She will be widely considered a lock VERY soon. Anthony Hopkins is a different story…
    - If the Actors didn’t go for two foreign language performances in Best Actress, do you still think the Academy will ? I could see Riva knocking out Cotillard at the Oscars, but I don’t see both making the cut.
    - Javier Bardem has an excellent shot at a BAFTA nod, and if that happens, he might just have strong enough precursors to provide the BOND-franchise its first acting Oscar nomination.
    - Nicole Kidman is back in the conversation, but she will need probably more to go all the way to the Oscar-top 5.
    - If Maggie Smith (Marigold) receives Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations, she will also have strong enough precursors to land an Oscar-nod…and for the record, she could EASILY pull off those two.

    …and about the so-far ignored contenders, WHO could be the Bafta-nominee landing an Oscar-nomination against all odds ?

    1. Keira Knightley (Iconic role in a British production, the top2 Best Actress contenders are American in genre films, so there is even a tiny chance she could WIN Bafta, not that would matter due to the early Academy-deadline. She will NEED the Academy’s British-vote long before the BAFTA-announcements…good news ? The last time she was up for an Oscar with an iconic lead role, the Academy nominated her against all odds (no SAG/BAFTA nods).)
    2. Anthony Hopkins (He is a British acting legend, I wouldn’t be surprised if he knocked out someone like Cooper or Washington at the BAFTAs and if that happens, he will be back in the conversation, though still far from the top5…but at least IN the conversation.)
    3. Samantha Barks & Eddie Redmayne (Their parts are iconic and baity, in a film that could still emerge as a stronger-than-expected contender. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they had the Bafta-nod and with that the British-vote in the Academy, too.)
    4. Ewan McGregor (He has a very passionate campaign, VERY similar to Oldman’s and Bardem’s when their big shot peers were campaigning for them…and in the end Oldman and Bardem GOT the Oscar-nod with only a Bafta-nomination under their belt.)
    5. Ezra Miller & Emma Watson (Both have been gaining significant traction lately, though on paper not enough for mainstream recognition. Could they surprise at the BAFTAs and later the Oscars ?
    6. Quartet’s Maggie Smith & Pauline Collins (British beloved veterans, enough said.)
    7. Judi Dench for Skyfall (I’m almost certain she will get a BAFTA nomination, question is will that translate into Oscar-love, as well ?)
    8. Kelly Reilly, Jennifer Ehle, Emily Blunt (They have done spectacuarly well in their respective roles, but the fact that they are overshadowed by their co-stars and their films are genre films, will probably make it impossible for them to stand out in voters’ minds.)
    9. Jude Law (IF he has the British-vote to begin with AND the HFPA goes for him and his film in a big way, THEN he might have the perception to trick the Academy-voters with their early deadline.)

  121. g
    December 12, 2012

    Omg! I can’t take it, this week is too crowded with awards and nominations! Javier Bardem! Marion Coittard! Argo!Lincoln! Woohoo!

  122. helios
    December 12, 2012

    I know, I really am talking out of my ass here, but that’s the way I see it.

    Anything new? We know that you know Les Liz can’t win and so your only hope is ZDT to stop Spielberg from winning. ZDT didn’t get an ensemble nod which should make you more nervous than you already are.

  123. Magically Delicious
    December 12, 2012

    And the SAGs follow the ridiculous trend of the Emmys in not nominating John Noble or Nick Offerman. It’s too early for these shenanigans.

  124. mileshigh
    December 12, 2012

    People talk how SAG didn’t get to see Zero Dark Thirty. If this is true, how did Chastain get a Best Actress nomination?

  125. Pierre de Plume
    December 12, 2012

    Bradley Cooper over Joaquin Phoenix? Now that’s odd.

    Helen Mirren is lucky to be invited — she’s great but the role wasn’t very substantial.

    Amy Adams is always good but here absence has more to do with the role (and maybe SAG’s relative lack of interest in the film).

    Looks like Maggie Smith (Marigold) edged out Judi Dench (Skyfall).

    SAG is starting to become a wee bit Oscary, I think.

  126. caleb roth
    December 12, 2012

    Has anyone seen Flight? Because I just can’t understand people bashing one of our great actorts delivering such an incredible performance. Go, Washington!

  127. Odee
    December 12, 2012

    No Phoenix? Shocking!

  128. December 12, 2012

    Most of these nominations are expected but two, obviously, floor me.

    To me the race for Best Actor comes down to Daniel Day-Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix. No matter what your thoughts on The Master may be, he is INCREDIBLE in the film. How was he snubbed?? Makes no sense.

    On the other side of the spectrum is what I felt to be one of the most embarrassing performances in recent years, Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy. Sure, she goes for it, but should that be rewarded? What are they going to show for her clip? Her pissing on Zac Efron’s face, or her having outrageous non-touching sex with John Cusack at the jail? Field or Hathaway will win, but still, what a joke. I was hoping for Judi Dench in Skyfall :(

    Solid list, though. I’m excited to see Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, and The Impossible!

  129. VVS
    December 12, 2012

    what an embarrassment for a group of actors to not nominate Joaquin Phoenix.

    Think on your sins.

  130. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    Danemychal,
    I qualified my statement with ‘Unless you’re Meryl..’
    Because she is the only actress in that age group that works in good films CONSISTENTLY. I love Streep…she’s brilliant most of the time. But there are very few American actresses of a certain age that get a chance to work in quality films year in and year out.
    Everyone else gets the scraps.
    Someone on a red carpet interview quoted Meryl’s statement about how difficult it is for older actresses to find good roles to Glenn Close, to which she laughed uproariously and replied:
    ‘She never has problems getting good roles!’
    Because she takes them all!
    This isn’t a rant about Streep, like I said, I love her, always have – and the brits have a lock on Oscar season in that age group too. So it’s nice to see a female vet like Sally Field get some recognition for a change.

  131. Kane
    December 12, 2012

    Caleb, Flight was fantastic. Denzel was great, Goodman was great, James Badge Dale had an exceptional cameo that, if he had longer screentime, could be in the conversation for a nomination. Though Denzel rocked it, his isn’t my favorite performance of the year. But I guess that’s what happens when you have MANY good films and performances in one year. It’s been a helluva ride.

  132. Phil Boroff
    December 12, 2012

    Sadly, the SAG awards are nothing more than a popularity contest. One must remember that most members of SAG are people who may have perhaps had only one or two roles that qualified them for SAG membership. They probably know little or nothing about acting, let alone “good” acting. Consequently, they vote for names that are “familiar” to them — those who have successful careers that are desired by, but highly unlikely for most other SAG members. It is a sad and somewhat pathetic and naive situation — an admiration society of the “have-nots” and “wannabes” who have desires that may be based on nothing more than self-deception and impossible dreams.

    Nominees selected by a committee of experienced, well-trained and knowledgeable actors would be much more valid. Otherwise, SAG nominees will continue to be geared to celebrities rather than to the best performances.

  133. unlikely hood
    December 12, 2012

    Nic V – The only thing I’d ask is that people get Anne Hathaway away from the TV Talk Shows she talks too much and is going to hurt her own chances if she doesn’t shut up.

    Word of advice, Nic: please also suggest that some man should sit down and shut up for a while. Cause if you don’t, you’re that guy.

  134. William Best
    December 12, 2012

    Yes Javier Bardem!!!! Truly great!
    No Django Unchained or Amour? No Joaquin Phoenix

  135. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    What did they say?

    Joaquin Phoenix: “I’m still not here, and I don’t care”.
    Amy Adams: “2000 handjobs is just way too much”.
    Emmanuelle Riva: “SAG, mon amour. Je vous déteste”.
    Ann Dowd: “If my publicist calls, I’ll do anything he says”.
    Cast of Zero Dark Thirty: “Mel Gibson just called…”
    Cast of Les Misérables: “I dreamed a dream where we would win. No Eddie, Barks, but stunt ensemble. At least there’s still our Anne and Hugh. And if Lincoln wins we’re not forgiving.”

  136. petros
    December 12, 2012

    truly believe these are unworthy for awards or noms performances (especially vs. competition)
    –HELEN MIRREN ( obv. RIVA)
    –ALAN ARKIN (obv. mmc CONAUGHEY, LEO, SL JACKSON, EZRA ETC)
    –DAME SMITH & NICOLE (obv. DOWD)
    well, each to his own, i have strong disagreements every year

  137. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    I’m not remotely worried that ZDT didn’t get a SAG Ensemble nomination. I’m not one of those people that believes in such folly. I’m not one to equate SAG Ensemble with Best PIC even though others love to do it. The two are distinct entities and if you can’t see that then you are the one who is not the critical thinker here.

    I think looking at these “rules” prevents one from actually thinking about the substance of the movies and what the academy seems to pick. Your way of Best Picture Picking is fine for a computer programmed by an 8th Grader. My way actually forces you to use your brain.

  138. unlikely hood
    December 12, 2012

    phantom – Great observations as always. Do you have your own blog? Because you sure as hell are adding a lot of value to this one. Sasha should throw you a few bucks.

    danemychal good point. I blame the studio for not promoting more of the Lincoln cast in that case, and that is a damn shame.

    Best Actress is now at best a 7-person race, with these 5 and Wallis and Riva. No way anyone else gets in.

    Best Actor is still the 6-person race we’ve known about for a while. No one from Life of Pi, Django, or Arbitrage is going to upset that now. Don’t really get the hate for Denzel, I thought it was a subtle yet urgent performance. But yes, someone will miss and at this point I’d still bet on Hawkes. Phoenix lovers, your boy may yet rise from the ashes – well, to get nom’d.

    Norbit…Norbit, Norbit, Norbit.

    I am one of these people who thinks that Eddie Murphy would have won an Oscar for Dreamgirls if it hadn’t been for the rather ill-timed release of Norbit. And Alan Arkin would have still been…you know, Ben Gazzara or J.T. Walsh, great actor, but not automatic awards-royalty.

    On one level I love the unthinking esteem for Arkin, because he has always been one of the least appreciated of his wave of everyman character-actors-becoming-leads like Hoffman, Nicholson, Wilder, Pacino, Hackman, etc. His big break should have been Catch-22 (1970) – Mike Nichols was right to cast him as Yossarian, he was perfectly the guy from the book. But the film fizzled at the box office and like Kris Kristofferson ten years later in Heaven’s Gate, the stench of failure someone accrued to this leading man. So Arkin plugged away for the next 3 1/2 decades until Little Miss Sunshine, and a surprise Oscar win, made him the next Chris Walken. On one level, that is awesome and I love great third acts in American lives.

    But if he gets in to the BSA 5 over DiCaprio or even McConaughey, I don’t like that. He had one scene in Argo; he made fun of a studio executive. The rest of it, he could have phoned in from his trailer. (Actually, he might have.) Arkin doesn’t need to be Judi Dench-automatic like that. Even he doesn’t care about it. Share the wealth, Oscar.

  139. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    BP is still a three-way contest. Actors are 1/4 of Academy members and they don’t all think that the winner of the main prize should have the best acting ensemble of the year (or one of the year’s best). ZDT is very much in the game with Lincoln and Les Mis… and any of these three can win. Other films (like Argo)? Not so much.

    The 1996-2011 is just too short of a time period to be a rule. To be exact science. And even then, rules are broken every year.

    But I do believe that today Lincoln and Les Mis upped their game a little.

  140. Gerd
    December 12, 2012

    Maggie might be nominated by bafta for lead in quartet, but she won’t get supporting for marigold as it came out in the uk last year where she failed to be nominated

  141. Jerry Grant
    December 12, 2012

    Yeah what the hell is Alan Arkin doing being nominated? It’s like lazy voting.

  142. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    I agree with rufus for once (lol): The Best Ensemble is not Best Picture. They cross paths often but are not the same. To say that ZDT [a film dominated by a female character who got nominated by SAG even though they didn't get screeners] is not a strong contender for BP because it missed a nom in Ensemble is like saying that Best Exotic Marigold Hotel should now be considered one of the top 5 contenders for Best Picture. The Help was not only nominated for Ensemble last year, it WON…and yet it was never really perceived to be ahead of The Artist, The Descendants or Hugo in the race. Basterds won too but lagged behind THL and Avatar in the 2009 duel for Best Picture.

    They are different, my friends. In the eyes of SAG voters, this is their chance to maybe award something that won’t walk away with all the other awards of the season. If they didn’t see it that way, how did Best Exotic Marigold Hotel get in?

  143. Bennett
    December 12, 2012

    See it in a funny way. Look, 9 of the 10 supporting performances are playes by actors/actresses who already have an Oscar.

    I go further: 18 out of 20 already have Oscar Wins or Nominations. The only newly ones are Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman.

    It’s not a good thing in my opinion…

  144. December 12, 2012

    rules are broken every year

    Each awards season it its own beast. It’s much safer, I’ve found, to go with your gut, rather than follow the rules to the letter.

  145. PJ
    December 12, 2012

    Nicole kidman! Wow!

  146. M
    December 12, 2012

    Nicole Kidman! Finally. Two times. She absolutley deserved it.

  147. Corvo
    December 12, 2012

    Laughable nominations. I can’t take them seriously. SAG people are just unqualified to judge.

  148. Rodrigo JP
    December 12, 2012

    Predicting the winners :

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    LINCOLN (Touchstone Pictures)
    DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln
    SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln
    JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT / Robert Todd Lincoln
    HAL HOLBROOK / Preston Blair
    TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens
    JAMES SPADER / W.N. Bilbo
    DAVID STRATHAIRN / William Seward

  149. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    “18 out of 20 already have Oscar Wins or Nominations. The only newly ones are Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman.”

    It’s been obvious for months that 2012 is not a year of newcomers but of previous nominees and winners (even multiple winners). I think 17/20 at the Oscars.

  150. Lars
    December 12, 2012

    Tero, that was very funny!
    Also, even though Riva’s performance is devastating, but I have a feeling that Cotillard will get in instead. She’s beautiful, talented, and loves campaigning. Of course I would be disappointed, but it’s the Oscar. Also, in life, you can’t have everything lol.

  151. deniz
    December 12, 2012

    guys, can i watch any of these films online? for free? outside US? thank you.

  152. BedBath&Beyonce
    December 12, 2012

    Hooray for Mirren!

  153. Zach
    December 12, 2012

    deniz, you can go to solarmovie for at least some films, which is how I saw Beasts of the Southern Wild and Compliance (feel free to delete this post if it’s against the rules!).

    Speaking of Compliance, I do hope Ann Dowd resurfaces with the Oscars. She won’t be nominated by the Globes either, and Maggie Smith will. Hell, Maggie will also get that BAFTA nod, so does she move into 4th place ahead of both Dowd and Adams?

  154. Free
    December 12, 2012

    So Bardem got both the Critics Choice AND SAG nominations? Holy shit, he might actually get nominated like he deserves to be!

  155. kasper
    December 12, 2012

    I think it’s weird that there’s this outcry for no Leo DiCaprio… has anyone in the comments actually watched the movie? Or are you basing it on the trailer alone?

  156. Cosme Fulanito
    December 12, 2012

    BRYAN CRANSTON with 3 noms!!!!!!!

  157. JP
    December 12, 2012

    Honestly, who do you think hurt the most Avatar’s winning possibilities in 2009? Obviously the actors… They would never crown a CGI driven film. My persinal pick then would be Basterds but I was OK with THL winning. And THL was also a film driven by one character and it still got an ensemble nod over Up In the Air, the only film that year that scored 3 acting noms. Slumdog Millionare also WON this with absolutely no well known actor from the general public. ZDT is not the frontrunner and its win is very very unlikely. Lincoln IS the frontrunner and probably only loses it if Les Miserables becomes a Titanic-esque success. SLP has no tech support and Argo’s nominations possibilities are very restricted: picture, directing, Arkin, screenplay, editing and score. In the rest, its a really long shot.

  158. Zach
    December 12, 2012

    Based on the trailer alone, Leo doesn’t look that good, though it’s nice to see him not take himself so seriously for a change.

    It’s interesting to hear the theories about Leo canceling out with Waltz, but I thought Waltz was submitted lead for SAGs, which is a real blow to Leo. Plus, Waltz won’t be nominated again for playing the same kind of character as in Inglourious Basterds. OK, this time he may not be the evil Nazi, but as good as he is, his post-Oscar parts are all looking the same.

  159. deniz
    December 12, 2012

    @zach THANKS

  160. December 12, 2012

    Comment

  161. Zach
    December 12, 2012

    Welcome! Does anyone know where I can see The Sessions, The Master, or The Paperboy online (let alone in theaters)?

  162. Ryan Adams
    December 12, 2012

    > “OK, this time he may not be the evil Nazi, but as good as he is, his post-Oscar parts are all looking the same.”

    They look different because he’s dressed up in different outfits. But no matter what funny hats you put on his head he’s always going to sound like an evil Nazi. Sorry, just ask the three musketeers. Cardinal Richelieu was an evil Nazi.

  163. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    “Honestly, who do you think hurt the most Avatar’s winning possibilities in 2009? Obviously the actors…”

    Honestly, I think what hurt Avatar’s chances the most was Avatar.

    So, how do you WIN an Oscar without a SAG nomination? Thinking about Riva and Phoenix mainly. When has it happened?

  164. John
    December 12, 2012

    I know that it’s irksome at this stage to start thinking of reasons why people didn’t get nominated. But. Is it true that There were minimal or no screeners sent of SAG for Django?

    That, along with Waltz’ category confusion could be part of there being no noms anywhere.

  165. phantom
    December 12, 2012

    Thanks unlikely hood !

  166. Sugar
    December 12, 2012

    @ Kasper Every year people cheer or complain about people who are or are not nominated from films they may not have seem. So what? Why can’t Leo’s fans do the same?

  167. Maxim
    December 12, 2012

    Glad to see Spader be included but they should have recognized more actors from Lincoln, especially in the ensemble category. All those actors delivering top notch work were a pleasure to watch.

  168. Icestorm
    December 12, 2012

    And the Oscar winners will be>

    Best picture> “ZERO DARK THIRTY”

    Best director> Kathryn Bigelow

    Best Actor> Joaquin Phoenix

    Best Actress> Jessica Chastain

    Best Sup. Actor> Javier Bardem

    Best Sup. Actress> Sally Field

    I told you first!

  169. Maxim
    December 12, 2012

    “Glad to see Spader be included”

    I meant included in the ensemble category.

  170. Maxim
    December 12, 2012

    Icestorm, I think there are other reasons for why you are first with that lineup.

    Also, Day Lewis deserves that Oscar for the most inmpressive work of his career. His entire body was giving a performance. It was incredible to watch.

  171. Jonathan
    December 12, 2012

    WOW. The supporting actress category is wayyyyyy different from what I expected. No Amy Adams? I was also expecting to see Joaquin Phoenix nominated, as well as The Master in Best Ensemble. Didn’t expect to see Bardem nominated, either. Glad to see that Hitchcock is getting some recognition with Mirren. Also glad to see Marion (that’s always a good thing).

    This is shaping up to be an interesting awards season.

    Hoffman for Supporting Actor?

  172. melvel
    December 12, 2012

    Tero, I remember Marcia Gay Harden won without a SAG nomination.

  173. mdbDuke
    December 12, 2012

    No love for 0D30. We’ll see if the other guilds warm up to the movie. I’m surprised, honestly. Phoenix not being nominated is a joke.

  174. melvel
    December 12, 2012

    Is January Jones no longer part of Mad Men?

  175. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    Yeah, I was thinking that it may have happened in Supporting categories, but never in Lead. Maybe.

  176. Icestorm
    December 12, 2012

    Maxim,

    ZDT and Bigelow are a lock.

    Phoenix will win the Oscar he deserves (no third Oscar yet for DDL)

    Jessica Chastain is competing against Jennifer Laurence… but Silver Linings, together with Les Mis, will be this year’s flop at the Oscars in the 5 big categories

    Bardem has been praised by critics from all over the world and thanks to his sublime acting the last Bond movie has become a global blockbuster…he will be this year’s surprise.

    As for Sally Field… they would love to give her an Oscar for all her career… even if she already has two… her colleagues love her and the public as well

  177. P
    December 12, 2012

    YESSSS. SAG got it right with Nicole Kidman and The Paperboy. Hope she goes all the way!

  178. Dominik
    December 12, 2012

    Tero: “So, how do you WIN an Oscar without a SAG nomination? ”

    Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock”.

    But I don´t see this happen for Riva or Phoenix. Day-Lewis is unbeatable, playing such an american icon. Doesn´t matter if he won twice before, he´ll do it again. The only candidate to beat him would be an overdue, well-beloved aged actor. But there is no candidate in the game this year.

  179. menyc
    December 12, 2012

    Most upset by no Joaquin and Amy Adams. And completely disagree that she was overrated. She is the pure evil in the film – all boiling inside. She was incredible.

  180. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    I agree that DDL will win, but Phoenix was supposed to be a possible upset. I’ve had Riva to win for weeks now, and I am not changing this because of SAG (even when I should).

    I don’t see Hawkes getting an Oscar nomination, so there’s room in Best Actor.

  181. Dominik
    December 12, 2012

    Tero, what speaks against Riva winning is that “Amour” is not that kind of movie that people will respond to emotionally. Not many, I guess. It´s a film many people respect quite a lot, ok, but it´s tough to sit through and it´s actually pretty cold – like all Haneke movies. They will probably honoring the film in the Foreign Language Category (plus nominations for Director and Riva), but I don´t see multiple wins for it.

  182. JP
    December 12, 2012

    @Tero

    It definitely didn’t deserve to win. But films that don’t deserve and win… We see them every year… I’m not talking about desrving or not. I’m talking about the Oscar game. If the actors are really into a film, they will make this film their winner. Or they will not put this film in trouble, like they did with, for example, The Artist and THL, which lost SAG. But when they don’t like a film… They destroy its chances and they clearly did not like Avatar. What I was trying to say is that THL was really strong… It got in over UIA, which I definitely see as a better cast achievement. THL has many other qualities but the acting is good, nothing special. Avatar was not strong enough to score a nod… Not surprisingly it did not win BP.

  183. McGregor
    December 12, 2012

    I haven’t seen it yet, but I really believe the only actor who can beat Daniel Day Lewis at the Oscars is Hugh Jackman in LES MISERABLES. I realize the film is getting divisive reviews, but I really think that if the film is loved by the guilds, Jackman will win.

    I do hope that Joaquin at least gets nominated. I wasn’t a fan of the movie as a whole, but his performance was beyond brilliant.

  184. joe
    December 12, 2012

    Lincoln has a shot at winning. With 13 nominations and more nominations today, it’ll be a lucky winner come Critic Choice’s Night and SAG Night.

  185. Kim
    December 12, 2012

    @ Lila and Kasper

    I haven´t seen Django, but I have seen all the other performances DiCaprio has been snubbed for. So it´s an educated guess that he is Oscar-worthy again. And really, if De Niro can get nominated as a “thank you for not sleep-walking”, I would be absolutely fine if DiCaprio got some extra points for doing exceptional, largely ignored work for a decade.

  186. joe
    December 12, 2012

    the surprise nomination is javier bardem for skyfall for best supporting actor.

  187. Zach
    December 12, 2012

    I’m worried about the influence of the British contingent of actors. The BAFTAs often get their wildcard picks nominated at the Oscars, or at least foretell Oscar snubs with their own snubs. British actors in movies the Brits love can edge out lesser less steady American actors. Similarly, it helps Denzel Washington and Q. Wallis (and Javier Bardem, even though Spanish people are really white!) to be people of color in a year where there are few non-white contenders.

    I though Smith was terrific but par for the course. The Critics Choice omitted her, but if she gets the Globe and the BAFTA, I hope that doesn’t mean an Oscar snub for the more deserving Ann Dowd. And I haven’t seen Amy Adams, so I don’t know what to make of her. Some are saying she was excellent; others, forgettable. And of course, with or without a Globe nomination, I figure Nicole Kidman’s nominations end this week.

    I’m the only one advocating a Denzel snub, but I wasn’t impressed by the movie. If Phoenix is volcanic, then he shouldn’t be left out; Denzel was too subtle for me to appreciate. And how many more chances will Hawkes and Cooper get?

    As for Wallis and Riva, I would prefer Riva based on the performances. Granted, I’m rooting for Watts without having seen her movie. The Brits could also make Helen Mirren a nominee at both the Globes and BAFTAs, but I don’t see her getting an Oscar nod for her “wife-of” role in a lukewarmly received movie (even if Alma Hitchcock was important, yadda yadda yadda).

  188. Zach M.
    December 12, 2012

    No Phoenix!? WTF, SAGs, I mean, really, WTF?? Disappoint doesn’t even *begin* to describe my reaction to that.

    …awesome about Bardem, though.

  189. Kholby
    December 12, 2012

    When I saw that Nicole Kidman was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for The Paperboy, I through my hands in the air in excitement and almost dropped my computer on the ground!

    Yess!

  190. SallyinCHicago
    December 12, 2012

    Sorry that BEASTS doesn’t have SAG membership, because it would have been a hoot to have Q. Wallis in the Best Actress race.

  191. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    If the SAG Ensemble Curse is a valid curse, Lincoln won’t be the beneficiary, the winner will be Les Miz. But methinks Zero Dark will reverse the curse.

    You heard it here first.

    But if Lincoln took the purse, well, I could think of worse.

    LIke that piece of shit Silver Linings Playbook. EGADS!

  192. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    If the SAG Ensemble Curse is a valid curse, Lincoln won’t be the beneficiary, the winner will be Les Miz. But methinks Zero Dark will reverse the curse.

    You heard it here first.

    But if Lincoln took the purse, well, I could think of worse.

    LIke that piece of crap Silver Linings Playbook. EGADS!

  193. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Curious as to what triggered the previous post to await moderation (yes, all three of them!)

  194. unlikely hood
    December 12, 2012

    Tero is right – it’s still a 3-way race for BP. ZDT needed a little cold water and it got it. It’s in fact the best 3-way race since Gladiator, Crouching Tiger, and Traffic. Arguably better; I’ll know after I see the 2 of those 3 movies that us normal civilians haven’t had a chance to see yet.

    McGregor is right – Jackman is probably DDL’s only real competition. And he better BRING IT.

    And I’m with Kim – I trust early reviewers on DiCaprio – certainly this category is hardly anything like, oh, say, the first year Leo got a nod, when we had the likes of Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive and John Malkovich in In the Line of Fire and Rafey boy in Schindler’s list. Of the so-far winners and nominees, only Jones and PS Hoffman really gave undeniable performances. So yeah, sorry, but Leo deserves more sight-unseen love, including from voters who have the Django DVD on their piles but haven’t felt like dedicating 3 hours yet.

  195. December 12, 2012

    Might be because they were 3 duplicates. Did you only post once? We let one of them loose.

  196. CB
    December 12, 2012

    Alan Arkin keeps being nominated – why? Frankly, he wasn’t that good in Little Miss Sunshine either. He’s ok, but the idea that either of his performances is awards-worthy is a joke. It’s like Sandra Bullock – they want to give her an award that’s worth something so that they can be nice.

    Glad to see Amy Adams and Joaquin Phoenix snubbed. I could smell the method acting off the screen from him, and from her – what exactly did she do but look determined the whole time? And Philip Seymour Hoffman wasn’t that good either.

    Really happy to see Bradley Cooper and Robert de Niro – both were wonderfully, believably manic. Russell’s script is incredible and should be getting more accolades.

    Sad Django isn’t here but the fact is, it’s QT and the movie is a gift enough.

  197. Linc4Jess
    December 12, 2012

    As I have yet to see “ZDT”, “SLP”, “Djano Unchained” and “Les Miserables” I won’t go into all the inane babble of who should be or shouldn’t be on the list. This said I would agree that I would have had Joaquin Phoenix in for the lurid “The Master” rather than Denzel Washington for the inane “Flight”. However, there is one thing that is very obvious. The marvelous masterpiece “Lincoln” is the definite frontrunner and the three film yet to premiere are going to have to be massive hits in order to derail “Lincoln” from taking best picture. “Lincoln” has become and continue to be such a prestigious film much like “Schindler’s List” was and the award groups circuit thus far is shouting this very fact out to all. I mean when was the last time you heard school teachers and college professor actually suggesting their students to see the film some even taking groups of students to view the film. The last time I heard of this happening was for “Schindler”s List’ and that film went on to win “OSCAR” best pic.

  198. Mattoc
    December 12, 2012

    This is what happens when you fuck a stranger in the ass, Joaquin!

  199. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    Glad I’m not the only one who feels that way about Arkin and DeNiro being nominated this year. Great actors, but they were not even close to great this year and they probably crowded out MM. But if Oscar follows suit, that will make it easier for Jones to win. He’s the only one of these noms in SA that comes close to Oscar-worthy.

  200. Casey
    December 12, 2012

    EXCITED ABOUT:
    * kidman! I actually enjoyed the movie, especially her balls out performance! Good for her!

    * Jessica Lange over on the tv side! She won last year and this year with a new role, she’s even better! So happy to see her back! And desperately hoping she will have a film role that puts her into Oscar talk again!

    SO ANGRY ABOUT:

    * no Ann dowd! The actors probably didn’t see this, because if they did she would easily be in. It’s one of the five best performances if the year IMO

    * the master almost shut out. WTF?! It is a disgrace to not nominate Pheonix! This is a performance that will be remembered for years to come! Shame shame. It’s about the acting people, not the interviews. Also leaving Amy Adams off is offensive as well.

    * mirren over Riva . No no no. Mirren was lovely in hitchcock, agreed. But over Riva? I think not.

  201. Casey
    December 12, 2012

    Also mad that they couldn’t find a spot for Matthew mc! They had 4 chances: killer joe, magic mike, Bernie, and the paperboy.

  202. w.j.
    December 12, 2012

    Don’t get the Bardem hate at all. Easily the best Bond villain EVER!! Very sympathetic AND scary performance. Well-deserved nomination.

  203. Gage Creed
    December 12, 2012

    I’m just starting to follow this year’s race, but as far as I could see, it seems like this:

    Best Picture – Hard to name a frontrunner at this point. A few movies still remain to be seen and most prelims remain to announce their nominees/winners. I would probably give a slight edge to Zero Dark Thirty based on its critical acclaim and how it’s sweeping the precursors so far.

    Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis looks pretty good for a 3rd win. After Meryl won hers last year, I immediately thought of him when I wondered who would be the next to join that club.

    Actress – If AMPAS loves Zero Dark Thirty as much as critics do, I see a solid shot of winning for Jessica Chastain. Otherwise, it’s Jennifer Lawrence’s to lose.

    Supporting Actor – Another rather unpredictable category. Tommy Lee Jones seems to have the edge at this point though.

    Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway is going strong right now. Sally Field could possibly threaten her, but I don’t see her sneaking into the 3-time-winners club after a controversial 2nd win in 1984.

    Director – As interesting as it may seem, I could easily see Bigelow snagging her 2nd win. Or Spielberg getting his 3rd.

    All in all, this year’s shaping up to be a “Welcome back to the podium” year for actors and directors! LOL

  204. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    “But if Oscar follows suit, that will make it easier for Jones to win. He’s the only one of these noms in SA that comes close to Oscar-worthy.”

    Jones needs to shave his head in February. You know, for consistency.

  205. Gustavo
    December 12, 2012

    Very few are considering it, and Sasha says it has been killed by Zero Dark Thirty, but Argo’s omnipresence shouldn’t go unnoticed. IMHO, we have now a totally unpredictable race with five films equally strong (regarding its odds, not quality): Argo, Les Mis, Lincoln, SLP and ZDT.

  206. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Thanks for advocating that a film that’s historical enough for students to see is worthy of winning the Oscar Best Pic. It almost makes me wish there was a category for Best Filmstrip.

  207. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    We need a GG thread to post our predictions so we can all look stupid in the morning.

  208. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    Rufus, you have this “anything but Lincoln” -vibe coming out of you. You didn’t like it at all?

  209. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    The HFPA takes voting very seriously. This year it was an 11-page document that takes a lot of time to go through. One of the voters, that I know, took his/her time and complained that for some categories it was hard to find five and to some five was surely not enough. We feel the same way, often. And yes, they have seen everything, so expect Django Unchained and the likes in there.

  210. Jonathan
    December 12, 2012

    Brian Rowe –

    “On the other side of the spectrum is what I felt to be one of the most embarrassing performances in recent years, Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy. Sure, she goes for it, but should that be rewarded? What are they going to show for her clip? Her pissing on Zac Efron’s face, or her having outrageous non-touching sex with John Cusack at the jail? Field or Hathaway will win, but still, what a joke. I was hoping for Judi Dench in Skyfall.”

    You’d rather Judi Dench for a role she’s played half a dozen times and that she could do in her sleep, rather than the performance of an actress who keeps pushing boundaries and challenges herslf? Yes, “going for it” should be rewarded, otherwise Helen Mirren, Judi Dench and Maggie Smith (all of whom I love) will keep getting nominated year in year out.

  211. Doug
    December 12, 2012

    Glee for Best Ensemble Comedy? Really?

  212. Winston
    December 12, 2012

    Helen Mirren got a nomination cuz she’s Helen Mirren. Not fair when your in a shitty, overrated movie/performance.

    Riva will hopefully get her spot.

  213. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    ‘a film that’s historical enough for students to see is worthy of winning the Oscar Best Pic.’
    Rufus,
    And that’s a bad thing?
    Tero,
    Some seem to resent the fact that Lincoln is about Abraham Lincoln thus making it an obvious favorite among voters…
    Oh, and that’s its well-done and acted.
    It has an unfair advantage by being good and actually about something important.
    I mean, I GUESS…because that’s the vibe I get from some.

  214. danemychal
    December 12, 2012

    “Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway is going strong right now. Sally Field could possibly threaten her, but I don’t see her sneaking into the 3-time-winners club after a controversial 2nd win in 1984.”

    Gage, regarding this post above: You are approaching the Oscars from an “awards fan” perspective rather than from the perspective of someone in the business. I guarantee you no one in the Academy will think “Ooh…controversial” when they see the name “Sally Field” on their ballots. They probably won’t even know how many times she has won an Oscar. They are more likely to think, “I know Sally; what a nice lady she is — CHECK” or “She was really good in Lincoln — CHECK”. The only way she doesn’t win is if they see Anne Hathaway’s name and go “She was far and away the best part of Les Mis — CHECK” or “She really did well at the Oscars, propping up James Franco the whole time — CHECK”.

  215. Free
    December 12, 2012

    Just saw HITCHCOCK today and I don’t really get all the Mirren hate. Say what you will about the film itself, she was great in it. I would have to agree with those complaining about Arkin, though. Neither he nor De Niro were particularly memorable in their respective films, but both will likely get nominated anyway. At this point, so long as Bardem makes the cut, I’m fine.

  216. Linc4Jess
    December 12, 2012

    “Thanks for advocating that a film that’s historical enough for students to see is worthy of winning the Oscar Best Pic.”

    Your welcome. Actually it is students or those in high school range that are NOT seeing the film. If student would go and see the film they actually might get motivated enough to go out and pick up a book on history and really learn something worthwhile, but judging from reports like we saw yesterday where they stated only 8 percent of students can read in Detroit, I suppose this might be too much too ask. I believe it was Detroit.

  217. Linc4Jess
    December 12, 2012

    Sorry. I miss spoke on the 8 %. It should be “Only 7% of Detroit Public-School 8th Graders Proficient in Reading”

  218. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    Everyone, or most, seem to be so confident about Hathaway winning. Don’t underestimate Sally. Just naming her costars: Hanks, Robin Williams, Kevin Kline(also a former boyfriend), Jeff and Beau Bridges, James Garner…and her Hollywood friends like Goldie Hawn, Jane Fonda, Julia Roberts and on and on…And people seem to genuinely like her(not funny anymore)
    I know I’m semi-glorifying cronyism, but in this case I don’t care…
    The 84 win wasn’t so much controversial as it was just just timing…it was a weak year for actresses…but somebody had to win…it happens all the time. Shes also won SAG awards for tv work…
    Besides, Anne still has that Garland biopic to come. Mary Todd is a role–of-a-lifetime in a once-in-a-liftime film for an actress…
    I think Sally is sitting pretty.

  219. unlikely hood
    December 12, 2012

    Yvette – plus Sally has never lost an Oscar after being nominated. She’s 2 for 2. Like the 49ers in Super Bowls – once they get there, you don’t bet against them.

  220. unlikely hood
    December 12, 2012

    (If the 49ers go to the Super Bowl in early February, and win it, let’s watch and see if all the Vegas odds on Hathaway shift to Field.)

  221. memorytape
    December 12, 2012

    it’s like…of course Quvenzhané Wallis shouldn’t get nominated. She’s just a kid, right? At least SAG thought so.

  222. tellows
    December 12, 2012

    So I started to have a feeling that Phoenix will be this year’s Fassbender. and Riva/Wallis this year’s Swinton.
    Take it easy. The best performances might not always get recognized. C’est la vie, la vie en Oscar.

  223. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Tero, I don’t have an anything but Lincoln point of view.

    Of the 6 movies deemed most likely to get a BP nom, I’ve seen 4 and I rank them

    1) Life of Pi
    1a) Argo
    3) Lincoln
    4F) Silver Linings Playbook.

    Lincoln is a good film, but it likely won’t finish in my top 10 of the year, and, well, I’d prefer a BP winner to be in my personal top 10.

    I have two major faults with Lincoln.

    1) The ending was too long, it should have ended when Lincoln was walking out of the White House. That take was so long I thought it was the ending and was shocked there was more. How someone as supposedly talented as Spielberg cannot see that he had the perfect ending is beyond me.

    2) The vote on the 13th Amendment went on way too long and there was so much clown acting in that scene it made it practically unbearable to watch. A simple roll call as we see the faces of the voters we needed to say would have been just fine. Put them into a montage with swelling John Williams music. It still would have sucked, but it would have been 1 minute rather than 15. There was nothing new or interesting in that scene, it didn’t inform us in any way. It was pure schlock.

    What you might be detecting in me, Tero, is an exasperation at some of the people who are supporting Lincoln. They act like Lincoln is some new Gospel that was found under a rock in upstate New York. It’s tiresome.

  224. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    And how easily forgettable they are, until someone mentions Swinton and you’re like… “Yeah, FUCK!!!”

    Of course, it is mandatory to mention this in all current We Need to Talk About Kevin reviews: “Can you believe that she was not even nominated?”.

  225. Tero Heikkinen
    December 12, 2012

    Well, there’s a Gospel going on in many camps. Have you not read Stephen Holt’s posts? He’s in your camp. You are also vocal about Les Mis.

    I have not seen many yet, but Life of Pi is my #1 so far, and will remain in Top 5 until the end which is months from now (takes time to see many of the smaller indies/foreign etc…)

  226. alan of montreal
    December 12, 2012

    I have a hard time taking the SAGs seriously when Betty White keeps getting nominated for a role she can do in her sleep (and same with Maggie Smith for Exotic). I think you’ll see Kidman and maybe Smith disappear from the Oscar list and Adams and maybe Dowd or Barks replace them. I also think Denzel will be replaced by Joaquin and Cotillard replaced by Riva–I think the latter may not have been nominated because she might not be an SAG member? I doubt they’d nominate two French actresses for perfs in two different French films, anyway. I think that the supporting actor category will remain intact–the only vulnerable one might possibly be Robert de Niro, with a possible replacement in John Goodman, Eddie Redmayne, Ewen McGregor, or Russell Crowe. I think Naomi Watts will benefit from Angelina Jolie’s push for the film, just as Javier Bardem did from Julia Robert’s.

  227. Aaron
    December 12, 2012

    @Danemychal….I respectfully disagree. I oftentimes think we don’t give the Academy enough credit when it comes to their specificity in picking winners. I’ll bet you MANY Academy members are well aware of Sally Field’s two Oscars. True, there is nothing controversial about Field and her second win wasn’t nearly as scandalous as many think it was now (other than Judy Davis, who was a relative newcomer then, all of the other nominees were previous winners, so it was very likely that someone was going to be a two-time Oscar winner). The truth of the matter is that how many Oscars you have MATTERS…how else can you explain Meryl Streep’s nearly thirty year wait before she finally got her third Oscar? I think Field is excellent in Lincoln, and she definitely has a shot, but her film career has beem bumpy, to the say the least. And I’m sure the Academy is aware of this fact and will take it into consideration when casting votes–that may be unfair, but I’m sure that’s how many think when giving away the most prestigious prize in the world for film.

  228. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    I’m not Pro Les Miz in that I think it’s the greatest thing since unsliced bread was first baked. Heck, I haven’t even seen it.

    I am hopeful it wins Best Pic for reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of the movie (assuming a film I truly love doesn’t get nominated)

    And what I’ve posted is how much I think the Academy and general audiences will like the film. I’m dialing back a bit because I am quite surprised the film isn’t getting better critical notices, while I am no fan of Tom Hooper, I’ve always assumed he was competent enough to put together a good version of the musical. Maybe that assumption was wrong.

    What I am increasingly vocal about is that I think ZDT will win and only Les Miz can challenge it. I firmly believe that most people will pick ZDT over Lincoln if they like both. It appears to be a better made film based on critics responses alone, and since both films appeal to a more cerebral crowd, I think the critic’s notices matter (not that these people are sheep, but that they will come to the same conclusion as the critics.)

  229. steve50
    December 12, 2012

    I thought the same, too, rufus – that Les Mis would be the main competition to Lincoln. That will probably stay the case, unless the general public notices what critics are discovering: Tom Hooper has all the directing panache of a crossing guard.

    The music will carry it through, probably. Not enough people will have seen Zero Dark Thirty.

  230. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Enough critics are liking Les Miz, though, to make me think that maybe the “top critics” that Metacritic uses are a bit snobby. Les Miz has been a force from the moment it was announced and I wonder if there is some anti-Hooper bias or some other bias that’s subtly at play here.

    I guess we’ll find out when it opens, when us peons get to see it.

  231. rufussondheim
    December 12, 2012

    Oh, and Steve, if you haven’t already, I suggest you find a copy of 12 years a slave and read it. I’ve only just started it and I can see why McQueen was drawn to this material. It’s only making me more anxious to see what he’s going to present us with.

    Unless you want to go into the film blind.

  232. Sato`
    December 12, 2012

    “1. Keira Knightley (Iconic role in a British production, the top2 Best Actress contenders are American in genre films, so there is even a tiny chance she could WIN Bafta, not that would matter due to the early Academy-deadline. She will NEED the Academy’s British-vote long before the BAFTA-announcements…good news ? The last time she was up for an Oscar with an iconic lead role, the Academy nominated her against all odds (no SAG/BAFTA nods).)”

    @phantom I agree with you and I’m really hoping for the best for Knightley… I just don’t get why the Actors don’t like her and the love for Mirren… So disappointing of them… Now I’m thinking that her shot is a “No Guts, no Glory” prediction…. Also I feel for Phoenix in “The Master”, favoring Washington for “Flight”… Really????

    Even though, I was really ecstatic for Kidman making the cut… Say whatever thing about The Paperboy but she does give a hell of a performance there!

  233. Kili
    December 12, 2012

    haters to the left! BARDEM all the way!!!!

  234. Yvette
    December 12, 2012

    Aaron,
    We have to remember that unlike Meryl, Sally (and other older actresses) have not had the opportunities year in year out…
    This is the first meaty, well written significant role Sally has had since …well, her last Oscar.
    She got typecast in lighter, secondary roles in big films (Gump) and lighter, secondary roles in big films(Mrs. Doubtfire…then she settled into a steady tv series…
    Meanwhile Streep gets role after role and gets nominated. Not a fair comparison.
    You could argue the ‘bumpy’ ride gives her the edge….as a beloved vet who is kind of the underdog …its that bumpyiness that makes you root for her…

  235. Max
    December 13, 2012

    Of all the potential nominees, Lincoln seems to have the most consistent showing in the awards circuit. As for Les Miserables, the critical backlash has quenched its fire somewhat. Zero Dark Thirty was on a roll this past week, but the costly SAG Ensemble snub will diminsh its momentum. Still, despite the statistics, don’t count it out yet. It is remains second only to Lincoln in the race. If the rave reviews continue to show up in a consistent rate, ZD30 will sweep or it will be TSN all over again. But I think the film will split votes with fellow thriller Argo(they are even edited and scored by the same two people), which will dilute the support for both films. By the way, I’m enjoying Django Unchained’s wild card status, which I hope it will maintain all the way to Oscar Night. Oscar could use some unpredictability.

    My Oscar Predictions:

    Best Picture
    Locks:
    1. Lincoln
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Argo
    Near Locks:
    5. Silver Linings Playbook
    6. Life of Pi
    Likely:
    7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    8. The Master
    Quite Probable:
    9. Django Unchained
    10. Amour
    11. Moonrise Kingdom
    12. Flight
    13. The Dark Knight Rises
    Longshots/Dark Horse:
    14. The Impossible
    15. Skyfall
    16. The Sessions
    17. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    18. Cloud Atlas

    Best Director
    Locks:
    1. Steven Spielberg(Lincoln)
    2. Kathlyn Bigelow(Zero Dark Thirty)
    3. Ben Affleck(Argo)
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    4. Tom Hooper(Les Miserables)
    5. Ang Lee(Life of Pi)
    6. Paul Thomas Anderson(The Master)
    7. David O. Russell(Silver Linings Playbook)
    Longshots/Dark Horse:
    8. Michael Haneke(Amour)
    9. Quentin Tarantino(Django Unchained)
    10. Benh Zeitlin(Beasts of The Southern Wild)

    Best Actor
    Lock:
    1. Daniel Day-Lewis(Lincoln)
    Likely/Quite Probable
    2. Hugh Jackman(Les Miserables)
    3. Joaquin Pheonix(The Master)
    4. Bradley Cooper(Silver Linings Playbook)
    5. Denzel Washington(Flight)
    6. John Hawkes(The Sessions)
    Longshots/Dark Horse:
    7. Anthony Hopkins(Hitchcock)
    8. Jean Louis-Trintgant(Amour)
    9. Richard Gere(Arbitage)
    10. Jamie Foxx(Django Unchained)

    Best Actress
    Locks:
    1. Jessica Chastain(Zero Dark Thirty)
    2. Jennifer Lawrence(Silver Linings Playbook)
    Likely:
    3. Marian Cotillard(Rust and Bone)
    4. Emennualle Riva(Amour)
    5. Quvenzhane Wallis(Beasts of the Southern Wild)
    Quite Probable:
    6. Naomi Watts(The Impossible)
    7. Helen Mirren(Hitchcock)
    8. Keira Knightley(Anna Kareinna)
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    9. Rachel Weisz(The Deep Blue Sea)
    10. Meryl Streep(Hope Springs)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Lock:
    1. Tommy Lee Jones(Lincoln)
    Near Locks/Likely:
    2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman(The Master)
    3. Robert De Niro(Silver Linings Playbook)
    4. Leonardo Dicaprio(Django Unchained)
    Quite Probable:
    5. Matthew McConaughey(Magic Mike)
    6. Alan Arkin(Argo)
    7. Christoper Waltz(Django Unchained)
    8. Dwight Henry(Beasts of the Southern Wild)
    9. Javier Bardem(Skyfall)
    10. Eddie Redmayne(Les Miserables)
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    11. John Goodman(Flight/Argo)
    12. Samuel L. Jackson(Django Unchained)
    13. Jason Clarke(Zero Dark Thirty)
    14. James Spader/David Strahairn(Lincoln)
    15. Jim Broadbent(Cloud Atlas)

    Best Supporting Actress
    Locks:
    1. Anne Hathaway(Les Miserables)
    2. Sally Field(Lincoln)
    3. Helen Hunt(The Sessions)
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    4. Maggie Smith(The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
    5. Amy Adams(The Master)
    6. Ann Dowd(Middle of Nowhere)
    7. Samantha Barks(Les Miserables)
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    8. Jacki Weaver(Silver Linings Playbook)
    9. Donna Bae(Cloud Atlas)
    10. Judi Dench(Skyfall)

    Best Original Screenplay
    Locks:
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. The Master
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    3. Django Unchained
    4. Amour
    5. Moonrise Kingdom
    6. Looper
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    7. Flight
    8. Arbitage

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Locks:
    1. Lincoln
    2. Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Argo
    Likely:
    4. Beasts of The Southern Wild
    5. Life of Pi
    Quite Probable:
    6. Les Miserables
    7. Perks of Being A Wallflower
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    9. The Dark Knight Rises
    10. The Sessions
    11. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

    Best Production Design
    Locks:
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Lincoln
    Near Locks:
    3. Anna Kareina
    4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    5. Life of Pi
    6. Cloud Atlas
    7. The Master
    8. Zero Dark Thirty
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    10. Django Unchained
    11. The Dark Knight Rises

    Best Editing
    Locks:
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Argo
    Near Lock:
    3. Lincoln
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    4. The Master
    5. Life of Pi
    6. Les Miserables
    7. Django Unchained
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    8. Cloud Atlas
    9. Flight
    10. Silver Linings Playbook
    11. The Dark Knight Rises

    Best Cinematography
    Locks:
    1. Life of Pi
    2. The Master
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    3. Skyfall
    4. Zero Dark Thirty
    5. Lincoln
    6. Les Miserables
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    7. The Dark Knight Rises
    8. Django Unchained
    9. Argo
    10. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    11. Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Costume Design
    Locks:
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Anna Kareina
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    3. Lincoln
    4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    5. Mirror Mirror
    6. Django Unchained
    7. A Royal Affair
    8. The Master
    9. Moonrise Kingdom
    10. Snow White and the Huntsman

    Best Makeup
    Locks:
    1. Lincoln
    2. Cloud Atlas
    Likely:
    3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Hitchcock
    6. Anna Kareina

    Best Visual Effects
    Locks:
    1. Life of Pi
    2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Near Lock:
    3. Cloud Atlas
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    4. The Dark Knight Rises
    5. Prometheus
    6. John Carter
    7. The Avengers
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    8. The Amazing Spiderman
    9. Snow White and the Huntsman

    Best Sound Editing
    Locks:
    1. The Dark Knight Rises
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. The Avengers
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Life of Pi
    6. Skyfall
    7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    8. Lincoln
    9. Flight

    Best Sound Mixing
    Locks:
    1. Les Miserables
    2. The Avengers
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    3. The Dark Knight Rises
    4. Life of Pi
    5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    6. Zero Dark thirty
    7. Lincoln
    8. Skyfall
    9. Argo
    10. Flight

    Best Score
    Locks:
    1. Lincoln
    2. The Master
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    3. Life of Pi
    4. Cloud Atlas
    5. Anna Kareina
    6. The Dark Knight Rises
    7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    8. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Longshot/Dark Horse:
    9. Argo
    10. Flight
    11. Zero Dark Thirty
    12. Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Song
    Locks:
    1. “Suddenly”(Les Miserables)
    2. “Skyfall”(Skyfall)
    Likely/Quite Probable:
    3. “Touch The Sky”(Brave)
    4. “Everybody Needs a Friend” (Ted)
    5. “Still Alive”(Paul Williams is Still Alive)
    6. “Learn Me Right”(Brave)
    7. “Song of The Lonely Mountain”(The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

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