19th ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS® NOMINATIONs
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES / Mark – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker – “FLIGHT” (Paramount Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Maya – “ZERO DARK THIRTY” (Columbia Pictures)
MARION COTILLARD / Stephanie – “RUST AND BONE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
HELEN MIRREN / Alma Reville – “HITCHCOCK” (Fox Searchlight)
NAOMI WATTS / Maria – “THE IMPOSSIBLE” (Summit Entertainment)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel – “ARGO” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JAVIER BARDEM / Silva – “SKYFALL” (Columbia Pictures)
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr. – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Lancaster Dodd – “THE MASTER” (The Weinstein Company)
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
HELEN HUNT / Cheryl – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Charlotte Bless – “THE PAPERBOY” (Millennium Entertainment)
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly – “THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL” (Fox Searchlight)
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
ARGO (Warner Bros. Pictures)
BEN AFFLECK / Tony Mendez
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel
KERRY BISHÉ / Kathy Stafford
KYLE CHANDLER / Hamilton Jordan
RORY COCHRANE / Lee Schatz
BRYAN CRANSTON / Jack O’Donnell
CHRISTOPHER DENHAM / Mark Lijek
TATE DONOVAN / Bob Anders
CLEA DUVALL / Cora Lijek
VICTOR GARBER / Ken Taylor
JOHN GOODMAN / John Chambers
SCOOT McNAIRY / Joe Stafford
CHRIS MESSINA / Malinov
THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL (Fox Searchlight)
JUDI DENCH / Evelyn Greenslade
CELIA IMRIE / Madge Hardcastle
BILL NIGHY / Douglas Ainslie
DEV PATEL / Sonny Kapoor
RONALD PICKUP / Norman Cousins
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly
TOM WILKINSON / Graham Dashwood
PENELOPE WILTON / Jean Ainslie
LES MISÉRABLES (Universal Pictures)
ISABELLE ALLEN / Young Cosette
SAMANTHA BARKS / Eponine
SACHA BARON COHEN / Thénardier
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Madame Thénardier
RUSSELL CROWE / Javert
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine
DANIEL HUTTLESTONE / Gavroche
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Marius
AMANDA SEYFRIED / Cosette
AARON TVEIT / Enjolras
COLM WILKINSON / Bishop
LINCOLN (Touchstone Pictures)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln
JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT / Robert Todd Lincoln
HAL HOLBROOK / Preston Blair
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens
JAMES SPADER / W.N. Bilbo
DAVID STRATHAIRN / William Seward
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (The Weinstein Company)
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr.
ANUPAM KHER / Dr. Cliff Patel
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany
CHRIS TUCKER / Danny
JACKI WEAVER / Dolores
PRIMETIME TELEVISION
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)
WOODY HARRELSON / Steve Schmidt – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
ED HARRIS / John McCain – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CLIVE OWEN / Ernest Hemingway – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN“ (HBO)
BILL PAXTON / Randall McCoy – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Martha Gellhorn – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN” (HBO)
JULIANNE MOORE / Sarah Palin – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING / Eva Delectorskaya – “RESTLESS” (Sundance Channel)
SIGOURNEY WEAVER / Elaine Barrish Hammond – “POLITICAL ANIMALS” (USA)
ALFRE WOODARD / Ouiser – “STEEL MAGNOLIAS” (Lifetime)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
JESSICA LANGE / Sister Jude – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: ASYLUM” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson
CHRIS CALDOVINO / Tonino Sandrelli
BOBBY CANNAVALE / Gyp Rosetti
MEG CHAMBERS STEEDLE / Billie Kent
CHARLIE COX / Owen Sleater
JACK HUSTON / Richard Harrow
PATRICK KENNEDY / Dr. Douglas Mason
ANTHONY LACIURA / Eddie Kessler
KELLY MACDONALD / Margaret Thompson
GRETCHEN MOL / Gillian Darmody
VINCENT PIAZZA / Lucky Luciano
PAUL SPARKS / Mickey Doyle
MICHAEL STUHLBARG / Arnold Rothstein
SHEA WHIGHAM / Elias “Eli” Thompson
ANATOL YUSEF / Meyer Lansky
BREAKING BAD (AMC)
JONATHAN BANKS / Mike Ehrmantraut
BETSY BRANDT / Marie Schrader
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White
LAURA FRASER / Lydia Rodart-Quayle
ANNA GUNN / Skyler White
RJ MITTE / Walter White, Jr.
DEAN NORRIS / Hank Schrader
BOB ODENKIRK / Saul Goodman
AARON PAUL / Jesse Pinkman
JESSE PLEMONS / Todd
STEVEN MICHAEL QUEZADA / Gomez
DOWNTON ABBEY (PBS)
HUGH BONNEVILLE / Robert, Earl of Grantham
ZOE BOYLE / Lavinia Swire
LAURA CARMICHAEL / Lady Edith Crawley
JIM CARTER / Mr. Carson
BRENDAN COYLE / John Bates
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley
JESSICA BROWN FINDLAY / Lady Sybil Crawley
SIOBHAN FINNERAN / O’Brien
JOANNE FROGGATT / Anna
IAIN GLEN / Sir Richard Carlisle
THOMAS HOWES / William
ROB JAMES-COLLIER / Thomas
ALLEN LEECH / Tom Branson
PHYLLIS LOGAN / Mrs. Hughes
ELIZABETH McGOVERN / Cora, Countess of Grantham
SOPHIE McSHERA / Daisy
LESLEY NICOL / Mrs. Patmore
AMY NUTTALL / Ethel
DAVID ROBB / Dr. Clarkson
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham
DAN STEVENS / Matthew Crawley
PENELOPE WILTON / Isobel Crawley
HOMELAND (Showtime)
MORENA BACCARIN / Jessica Brody
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Finn Walden
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison
RUPERT FRIEND / Peter Quinn
DAVID HAREWOOD / David Estes
DIEGO KLATTENHOFF / Mike Faber
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody
DAVID MARCIANO / Virgil
NAVID NEGAHBAN / Abu Nazir
JACKSON PACE / Chris Brody
MANDY PATINKIN / Saul Berenson
ZULEIKHA ROBINSON / Roya Hammad
MORGAN SAYLOR / Dana Brody
JAMEY SHERIDAN / Vice President Walden
MAD MEN (AMC)
BEN FELDMAN / Michael Ginsberg
JAY R. FERGUSON / Stan Rizzo
JON HAMM / Don Draper
JARED HARRIS / Lane Pryce
CHRISTINA HENDRICKS / Joan Harris
VINCENT KARTHEISER / Pete Campbell
ROBERT MORSE / Bertram Cooper
ELISABETH MOSS / Peggy Olson
JESSICA PARÉ / Megan Calvet Draper
TEYONAH PARRIS / Dawn Chambers
KIERNAN SHIPKA / Sally Draper
JOHN SLATTERY / Roger Sterling
RICH SOMMER / Harry Crane
AARON STATON / Kenneth Cosgrove
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 ROCK (NBC)
SCOTT ADSIT / Pete Hornberger
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon
JUDAH FRIEDLANDER / Frank Rossitano
JANE KRAKOWSKI / Jenna Maroney
JACK McBRAYER / Kenneth Parcell
TRACY MORGAN / Tracy Jordan
THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
MAYIM BIALIK / Amy Farrah Fowler
KALEY CUOCO / Penny
JOHNNY GALECKI / Leonard Hofstadter
SIMON HELBERG / Howard Wolowitz
KUNAL NAYYAR / Rajesh Koothrappali
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper
MELISSA RAUCH / Bernadette Rostenkowski
GLEE (FOX)
DIANNA AGRON / Quinn Fabray
CHRIS COLFER / Kurt Hummel
DARREN CRISS / Blaine Anderson
SAMUEL LARSEN / Joe Hart
VANESSA LENGIES / Sugar Motta
JANE LYNCH / Sue Sylvester
JAYMA MAYS / Emma Pillsbury
KEVIN McHALE / Artie Abrams
LEA MICHELE / Rachel Berry
CORY MONTEITH / Finn Hudson
HEATHER MORRIS / Brittany Pierce
MATTHEW MORRISON / Will Schuester
ALEX NEWELL / Wade Adams/Unique
CHORD OVERSTREET / Sam Evans
AMBER RILEY / Mercedes Jones
NAYA RIVERA / Santana Lopez
MARK SALLING / Noah “Puck” Puckerman
HARRY SHUM, JR. / Mike Chang
JENNA USHKOWITZ / Tina Cohen-Chang
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
AUBREY ANDERSON-EMMONS / Lily Tucker-Pritchett
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy
JESSE TYLER FERGUSON / Mitchell Pritchett
NOLAN GOULD / Luke Dunphy
SARAH HYLAND / Haley Dunphy
ED O’NEILL / Jay Pritchett
RICO RODRIGUEZ / Manny Delgado
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett
ARIEL WINTER / Alex Dunphy
NURSE JACKIE (Showtime)
MACKENZIE ALADJEM / Fiona Peyton
EVE BEST / Dr. Ellie O’Hara
BOBBY CANNAVALE / Dr. Mike Cruz
JAKE CANNAVALE / Charlie Cruz
PETER FACINELLI / Dr. Fitch Cooper
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton
DOMINIC FUMUSA / Kevin Peyton
ARJUN GUPTA / Sam
LENNY JACOBSON / Lenny
RUBY JERINS / Grace Peyton
PAUL SCHULZE / Eddie Walzer
ANNA DEAVERE SMITH / Gloria Akalitus
STEPHEN WALLEM / Thor Lundgren
MERRITT WEVER / Zoey Barkow
THE OFFICE (NBC)
LESLIE DAVID BAKER / Stanley Hudson
BRIAN BAUMGARTNER / Kevin Malone
CREED BRATTON / Creed Bratton
CLARKE DUKE / Clark
JENNA FISCHER / Pam Halpert
KATE FLANNERY / Meredith Palmer
ED HELMS / Andy Bernard
MINDY KALING / Kelly Kapoor
ELLIE KEMPER / Erin Hannon
ANGELA KINSEY / Angela Martin
JOHN KRASINSKI / Jim Halpert
JAKE LACEY / Peter
PAUL LIEBERSTEIN / Toby Flenderson
B.J. NOVAK / Ryan Howard
OSCAR NUÑEZ / Oscar Martinez
CRAIG ROBINSON / Darryl Philbin
PHYLLIS SMITH / Phyllis Vance
CATHERINE TATE / Nellie Bertram
RAINN WILSON / Dwight Schrute
SAG AWARDS HONORS FOR STUNT ENSEMBLES
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN (Columbia Pictures)
THE BOURNE LEGACY (Universal Pictures)
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (Warner Bros. Pictures)
LES MISÉRABLES (Universal Pictures)
SKYFALL (Columbia Pictures)
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
BREAKING BAD (AMC)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
SONS OF ANARCHY (FX)
THE WALKING DEAD (AMC)
LIFE ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
Screen Actors Guild 49th Annual Life Achievement Award
DICK VAN DYKE
Of all the potential nominees, Lincoln seems to have the most consistent showing in the awards circuit. As for Les Miserables, the critical backlash has quenched its fire somewhat. Zero Dark Thirty was on a roll this past week, but the costly SAG Ensemble snub will diminsh its momentum. Still, despite the statistics, don’t count it out yet. It is remains second only to Lincoln in the race. If the rave reviews continue to show up in a consistent rate, ZD30 will sweep or it will be TSN all over again. But I think the film will split votes with fellow thriller Argo(they are even edited and scored by the same two people), which will dilute the support for both films. By the way, I’m enjoying Django Unchained’s wild card status, which I hope it will maintain all the way to Oscar Night. Oscar could use some unpredictability.
My Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Locks:
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Les Miserables
4. Argo
Near Locks:
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
Likely:
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. The Master
Quite Probable:
9. Django Unchained
10. Amour
11. Moonrise Kingdom
12. Flight
13. The Dark Knight Rises
Longshots/Dark Horse:
14. The Impossible
15. Skyfall
16. The Sessions
17. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
18. Cloud Atlas
Best Director
Locks:
1. Steven Spielberg(Lincoln)
2. Kathlyn Bigelow(Zero Dark Thirty)
3. Ben Affleck(Argo)
Likely/Quite Probable:
4. Tom Hooper(Les Miserables)
5. Ang Lee(Life of Pi)
6. Paul Thomas Anderson(The Master)
7. David O. Russell(Silver Linings Playbook)
Longshots/Dark Horse:
8. Michael Haneke(Amour)
9. Quentin Tarantino(Django Unchained)
10. Benh Zeitlin(Beasts of The Southern Wild)
Best Actor
Lock:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis(Lincoln)
Likely/Quite Probable
2. Hugh Jackman(Les Miserables)
3. Joaquin Pheonix(The Master)
4. Bradley Cooper(Silver Linings Playbook)
5. Denzel Washington(Flight)
6. John Hawkes(The Sessions)
Longshots/Dark Horse:
7. Anthony Hopkins(Hitchcock)
8. Jean Louis-Trintgant(Amour)
9. Richard Gere(Arbitage)
10. Jamie Foxx(Django Unchained)
Best Actress
Locks:
1. Jessica Chastain(Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Jennifer Lawrence(Silver Linings Playbook)
Likely:
3. Marian Cotillard(Rust and Bone)
4. Emennualle Riva(Amour)
5. Quvenzhane Wallis(Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Quite Probable:
6. Naomi Watts(The Impossible)
7. Helen Mirren(Hitchcock)
8. Keira Knightley(Anna Kareinna)
Longshot/Dark Horse:
9. Rachel Weisz(The Deep Blue Sea)
10. Meryl Streep(Hope Springs)
Best Supporting Actor
Lock:
1. Tommy Lee Jones(Lincoln)
Near Locks/Likely:
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman(The Master)
3. Robert De Niro(Silver Linings Playbook)
4. Leonardo Dicaprio(Django Unchained)
Quite Probable:
5. Matthew McConaughey(Magic Mike)
6. Alan Arkin(Argo)
7. Christoper Waltz(Django Unchained)
8. Dwight Henry(Beasts of the Southern Wild)
9. Javier Bardem(Skyfall)
10. Eddie Redmayne(Les Miserables)
Longshot/Dark Horse:
11. John Goodman(Flight/Argo)
12. Samuel L. Jackson(Django Unchained)
13. Jason Clarke(Zero Dark Thirty)
14. James Spader/David Strahairn(Lincoln)
15. Jim Broadbent(Cloud Atlas)
Best Supporting Actress
Locks:
1. Anne Hathaway(Les Miserables)
2. Sally Field(Lincoln)
3. Helen Hunt(The Sessions)
Likely/Quite Probable:
4. Maggie Smith(The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
5. Amy Adams(The Master)
6. Ann Dowd(Middle of Nowhere)
7. Samantha Barks(Les Miserables)
Longshot/Dark Horse:
8. Jacki Weaver(Silver Linings Playbook)
9. Donna Bae(Cloud Atlas)
10. Judi Dench(Skyfall)
Best Original Screenplay
Locks:
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. The Master
Likely/Quite Probable:
3. Django Unchained
4. Amour
5. Moonrise Kingdom
6. Looper
Longshot/Dark Horse:
7. Flight
8. Arbitage
Best Adapted Screenplay
Locks:
1. Lincoln
2. Silver Linings Playbook
3. Argo
Likely:
4. Beasts of The Southern Wild
5. Life of Pi
Quite Probable:
6. Les Miserables
7. Perks of Being A Wallflower
Longshot/Dark Horse:
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. The Dark Knight Rises
10. The Sessions
11. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Production Design
Locks:
1. Les Miserables
2. Lincoln
Near Locks:
3. Anna Kareina
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Likely/Quite Probable:
5. Life of Pi
6. Cloud Atlas
7. The Master
8. Zero Dark Thirty
Longshot/Dark Horse:
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. Django Unchained
11. The Dark Knight Rises
Best Editing
Locks:
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Argo
Near Lock:
3. Lincoln
Likely/Quite Probable:
4. The Master
5. Life of Pi
6. Les Miserables
7. Django Unchained
Longshot/Dark Horse:
8. Cloud Atlas
9. Flight
10. Silver Linings Playbook
11. The Dark Knight Rises
Best Cinematography
Locks:
1. Life of Pi
2. The Master
Likely/Quite Probable:
3. Skyfall
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Lincoln
6. Les Miserables
Longshot/Dark Horse:
7. The Dark Knight Rises
8. Django Unchained
9. Argo
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild
11. Moonrise Kingdom
Best Costume Design
Locks:
1. Les Miserables
2. Anna Kareina
Likely/Quite Probable:
3. Lincoln
4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
5. Mirror Mirror
6. Django Unchained
7. A Royal Affair
8. The Master
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Snow White and the Huntsman
Best Makeup
Locks:
1. Lincoln
2. Cloud Atlas
Likely:
3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Longshot/Dark Horse:
4. Les Miserables
5. Hitchcock
6. Anna Kareina
Best Visual Effects
Locks:
1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Near Lock:
3. Cloud Atlas
Likely/Quite Probable:
4. The Dark Knight Rises
5. Prometheus
6. John Carter
7. The Avengers
Longshot/Dark Horse:
8. The Amazing Spiderman
9. Snow White and the Huntsman
Best Sound Editing
Locks:
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. The Avengers
Likely/Quite Probable:
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Skyfall
7. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
8. Lincoln
9. Flight
Best Sound Mixing
Locks:
1. Les Miserables
2. The Avengers
Likely/Quite Probable:
3. The Dark Knight Rises
4. Life of Pi
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
6. Zero Dark thirty
7. Lincoln
8. Skyfall
9. Argo
10. Flight
Best Score
Locks:
1. Lincoln
2. The Master
Likely/Quite Probable:
3. Life of Pi
4. Cloud Atlas
5. Anna Kareina
6. The Dark Knight Rises
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Longshot/Dark Horse:
9. Argo
10. Flight
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Moonrise Kingdom
Best Song
Locks:
1. “Suddenly”(Les Miserables)
2. “Skyfall”(Skyfall)
Likely/Quite Probable:
3. “Touch The Sky”(Brave)
4. “Everybody Needs a Friend” (Ted)
5. “Still Alive”(Paul Williams is Still Alive)
6. “Learn Me Right”(Brave)
7. “Song of The Lonely Mountain”(The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Aaron,
We have to remember that unlike Meryl, Sally (and other older actresses) have not had the opportunities year in year out…
This is the first meaty, well written significant role Sally has had since …well, her last Oscar.
She got typecast in lighter, secondary roles in big films (Gump) and lighter, secondary roles in big films(Mrs. Doubtfire…then she settled into a steady tv series…
Meanwhile Streep gets role after role and gets nominated. Not a fair comparison.
You could argue the ‘bumpy’ ride gives her the edge….as a beloved vet who is kind of the underdog …its that bumpyiness that makes you root for her…
haters to the left! BARDEM all the way!!!!
“1. Keira Knightley (Iconic role in a British production, the top2 Best Actress contenders are American in genre films, so there is even a tiny chance she could WIN Bafta, not that would matter due to the early Academy-deadline. She will NEED the Academy’s British-vote long before the BAFTA-announcements…good news ? The last time she was up for an Oscar with an iconic lead role, the Academy nominated her against all odds (no SAG/BAFTA nods).)”
@phantom I agree with you and I’m really hoping for the best for Knightley… I just don’t get why the Actors don’t like her and the love for Mirren… So disappointing of them… Now I’m thinking that her shot is a “No Guts, no Glory” prediction…. Also I feel for Phoenix in “The Master”, favoring Washington for “Flight”… Really????
Even though, I was really ecstatic for Kidman making the cut… Say whatever thing about The Paperboy but she does give a hell of a performance there!
Oh, and Steve, if you haven’t already, I suggest you find a copy of 12 years a slave and read it. I’ve only just started it and I can see why McQueen was drawn to this material. It’s only making me more anxious to see what he’s going to present us with.
Unless you want to go into the film blind.
Enough critics are liking Les Miz, though, to make me think that maybe the “top critics” that Metacritic uses are a bit snobby. Les Miz has been a force from the moment it was announced and I wonder if there is some anti-Hooper bias or some other bias that’s subtly at play here.
I guess we’ll find out when it opens, when us peons get to see it.
I thought the same, too, rufus – that Les Mis would be the main competition to Lincoln. That will probably stay the case, unless the general public notices what critics are discovering: Tom Hooper has all the directing panache of a crossing guard.
The music will carry it through, probably. Not enough people will have seen Zero Dark Thirty.
I’m not Pro Les Miz in that I think it’s the greatest thing since unsliced bread was first baked. Heck, I haven’t even seen it.
I am hopeful it wins Best Pic for reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of the movie (assuming a film I truly love doesn’t get nominated)
And what I’ve posted is how much I think the Academy and general audiences will like the film. I’m dialing back a bit because I am quite surprised the film isn’t getting better critical notices, while I am no fan of Tom Hooper, I’ve always assumed he was competent enough to put together a good version of the musical. Maybe that assumption was wrong.
What I am increasingly vocal about is that I think ZDT will win and only Les Miz can challenge it. I firmly believe that most people will pick ZDT over Lincoln if they like both. It appears to be a better made film based on critics responses alone, and since both films appeal to a more cerebral crowd, I think the critic’s notices matter (not that these people are sheep, but that they will come to the same conclusion as the critics.)
@Danemychal….I respectfully disagree. I oftentimes think we don’t give the Academy enough credit when it comes to their specificity in picking winners. I’ll bet you MANY Academy members are well aware of Sally Field’s two Oscars. True, there is nothing controversial about Field and her second win wasn’t nearly as scandalous as many think it was now (other than Judy Davis, who was a relative newcomer then, all of the other nominees were previous winners, so it was very likely that someone was going to be a two-time Oscar winner). The truth of the matter is that how many Oscars you have MATTERS…how else can you explain Meryl Streep’s nearly thirty year wait before she finally got her third Oscar? I think Field is excellent in Lincoln, and she definitely has a shot, but her film career has beem bumpy, to the say the least. And I’m sure the Academy is aware of this fact and will take it into consideration when casting votes–that may be unfair, but I’m sure that’s how many think when giving away the most prestigious prize in the world for film.
I have a hard time taking the SAGs seriously when Betty White keeps getting nominated for a role she can do in her sleep (and same with Maggie Smith for Exotic). I think you’ll see Kidman and maybe Smith disappear from the Oscar list and Adams and maybe Dowd or Barks replace them. I also think Denzel will be replaced by Joaquin and Cotillard replaced by Riva–I think the latter may not have been nominated because she might not be an SAG member? I doubt they’d nominate two French actresses for perfs in two different French films, anyway. I think that the supporting actor category will remain intact–the only vulnerable one might possibly be Robert de Niro, with a possible replacement in John Goodman, Eddie Redmayne, Ewen McGregor, or Russell Crowe. I think Naomi Watts will benefit from Angelina Jolie’s push for the film, just as Javier Bardem did from Julia Robert’s.
Well, there’s a Gospel going on in many camps. Have you not read Stephen Holt’s posts? He’s in your camp. You are also vocal about Les Mis.
I have not seen many yet, but Life of Pi is my #1 so far, and will remain in Top 5 until the end which is months from now (takes time to see many of the smaller indies/foreign etc…)
And how easily forgettable they are, until someone mentions Swinton and you’re like… “Yeah, FUCK!!!”
Of course, it is mandatory to mention this in all current We Need to Talk About Kevin reviews: “Can you believe that she was not even nominated?”.
Tero, I don’t have an anything but Lincoln point of view.
Of the 6 movies deemed most likely to get a BP nom, I’ve seen 4 and I rank them
1) Life of Pi
1a) Argo
3) Lincoln
4F) Silver Linings Playbook.
Lincoln is a good film, but it likely won’t finish in my top 10 of the year, and, well, I’d prefer a BP winner to be in my personal top 10.
I have two major faults with Lincoln.
1) The ending was too long, it should have ended when Lincoln was walking out of the White House. That take was so long I thought it was the ending and was shocked there was more. How someone as supposedly talented as Spielberg cannot see that he had the perfect ending is beyond me.
2) The vote on the 13th Amendment went on way too long and there was so much clown acting in that scene it made it practically unbearable to watch. A simple roll call as we see the faces of the voters we needed to say would have been just fine. Put them into a montage with swelling John Williams music. It still would have sucked, but it would have been 1 minute rather than 15. There was nothing new or interesting in that scene, it didn’t inform us in any way. It was pure schlock.
What you might be detecting in me, Tero, is an exasperation at some of the people who are supporting Lincoln. They act like Lincoln is some new Gospel that was found under a rock in upstate New York. It’s tiresome.
So I started to have a feeling that Phoenix will be this year’s Fassbender. and Riva/Wallis this year’s Swinton.
Take it easy. The best performances might not always get recognized. C’est la vie, la vie en Oscar.
it’s like…of course Quvenzhané Wallis shouldn’t get nominated. She’s just a kid, right? At least SAG thought so.
(If the 49ers go to the Super Bowl in early February, and win it, let’s watch and see if all the Vegas odds on Hathaway shift to Field.)
Yvette – plus Sally has never lost an Oscar after being nominated. She’s 2 for 2. Like the 49ers in Super Bowls – once they get there, you don’t bet against them.
Everyone, or most, seem to be so confident about Hathaway winning. Don’t underestimate Sally. Just naming her costars: Hanks, Robin Williams, Kevin Kline(also a former boyfriend), Jeff and Beau Bridges, James Garner…and her Hollywood friends like Goldie Hawn, Jane Fonda, Julia Roberts and on and on…And people seem to genuinely like her(not funny anymore)
I know I’m semi-glorifying cronyism, but in this case I don’t care…
The 84 win wasn’t so much controversial as it was just just timing…it was a weak year for actresses…but somebody had to win…it happens all the time. Shes also won SAG awards for tv work…
Besides, Anne still has that Garland biopic to come. Mary Todd is a role–of-a-lifetime in a once-in-a-liftime film for an actress…
I think Sally is sitting pretty.
Sorry. I miss spoke on the 8 %. It should be “Only 7% of Detroit Public-School 8th Graders Proficient in Reading”
“Thanks for advocating that a film that’s historical enough for students to see is worthy of winning the Oscar Best Pic.”
Your welcome. Actually it is students or those in high school range that are NOT seeing the film. If student would go and see the film they actually might get motivated enough to go out and pick up a book on history and really learn something worthwhile, but judging from reports like we saw yesterday where they stated only 8 percent of students can read in Detroit, I suppose this might be too much too ask. I believe it was Detroit.
Just saw HITCHCOCK today and I don’t really get all the Mirren hate. Say what you will about the film itself, she was great in it. I would have to agree with those complaining about Arkin, though. Neither he nor De Niro were particularly memorable in their respective films, but both will likely get nominated anyway. At this point, so long as Bardem makes the cut, I’m fine.
“Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway is going strong right now. Sally Field could possibly threaten her, but I don’t see her sneaking into the 3-time-winners club after a controversial 2nd win in 1984.”
Gage, regarding this post above: You are approaching the Oscars from an “awards fan” perspective rather than from the perspective of someone in the business. I guarantee you no one in the Academy will think “Ooh…controversial” when they see the name “Sally Field” on their ballots. They probably won’t even know how many times she has won an Oscar. They are more likely to think, “I know Sally; what a nice lady she is — CHECK” or “She was really good in Lincoln — CHECK”. The only way she doesn’t win is if they see Anne Hathaway’s name and go “She was far and away the best part of Les Mis — CHECK” or “She really did well at the Oscars, propping up James Franco the whole time — CHECK”.
‘a film that’s historical enough for students to see is worthy of winning the Oscar Best Pic.’
Rufus,
And that’s a bad thing?
Tero,
Some seem to resent the fact that Lincoln is about Abraham Lincoln thus making it an obvious favorite among voters…
Oh, and that’s its well-done and acted.
It has an unfair advantage by being good and actually about something important.
I mean, I GUESS…because that’s the vibe I get from some.
Helen Mirren got a nomination cuz she’s Helen Mirren. Not fair when your in a shitty, overrated movie/performance.
Riva will hopefully get her spot.
Glee for Best Ensemble Comedy? Really?
Brian Rowe –
“On the other side of the spectrum is what I felt to be one of the most embarrassing performances in recent years, Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy. Sure, she goes for it, but should that be rewarded? What are they going to show for her clip? Her pissing on Zac Efron’s face, or her having outrageous non-touching sex with John Cusack at the jail? Field or Hathaway will win, but still, what a joke. I was hoping for Judi Dench in Skyfall.”
You’d rather Judi Dench for a role she’s played half a dozen times and that she could do in her sleep, rather than the performance of an actress who keeps pushing boundaries and challenges herslf? Yes, “going for it” should be rewarded, otherwise Helen Mirren, Judi Dench and Maggie Smith (all of whom I love) will keep getting nominated year in year out.
The HFPA takes voting very seriously. This year it was an 11-page document that takes a lot of time to go through. One of the voters, that I know, took his/her time and complained that for some categories it was hard to find five and to some five was surely not enough. We feel the same way, often. And yes, they have seen everything, so expect Django Unchained and the likes in there.
Rufus, you have this “anything but Lincoln” -vibe coming out of you. You didn’t like it at all?
We need a GG thread to post our predictions so we can all look stupid in the morning.
Thanks for advocating that a film that’s historical enough for students to see is worthy of winning the Oscar Best Pic. It almost makes me wish there was a category for Best Filmstrip.
Very few are considering it, and Sasha says it has been killed by Zero Dark Thirty, but Argo’s omnipresence shouldn’t go unnoticed. IMHO, we have now a totally unpredictable race with five films equally strong (regarding its odds, not quality): Argo, Les Mis, Lincoln, SLP and ZDT.
“But if Oscar follows suit, that will make it easier for Jones to win. He’s the only one of these noms in SA that comes close to Oscar-worthy.”
Jones needs to shave his head in February. You know, for consistency.
I’m just starting to follow this year’s race, but as far as I could see, it seems like this:
Best Picture – Hard to name a frontrunner at this point. A few movies still remain to be seen and most prelims remain to announce their nominees/winners. I would probably give a slight edge to Zero Dark Thirty based on its critical acclaim and how it’s sweeping the precursors so far.
Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis looks pretty good for a 3rd win. After Meryl won hers last year, I immediately thought of him when I wondered who would be the next to join that club.
Actress – If AMPAS loves Zero Dark Thirty as much as critics do, I see a solid shot of winning for Jessica Chastain. Otherwise, it’s Jennifer Lawrence’s to lose.
Supporting Actor – Another rather unpredictable category. Tommy Lee Jones seems to have the edge at this point though.
Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway is going strong right now. Sally Field could possibly threaten her, but I don’t see her sneaking into the 3-time-winners club after a controversial 2nd win in 1984.
Director – As interesting as it may seem, I could easily see Bigelow snagging her 2nd win. Or Spielberg getting his 3rd.
All in all, this year’s shaping up to be a “Welcome back to the podium” year for actors and directors! LOL
Don’t get the Bardem hate at all. Easily the best Bond villain EVER!! Very sympathetic AND scary performance. Well-deserved nomination.
Also mad that they couldn’t find a spot for Matthew mc! They had 4 chances: killer joe, magic mike, Bernie, and the paperboy.
EXCITED ABOUT:
* kidman! I actually enjoyed the movie, especially her balls out performance! Good for her!
* Jessica Lange over on the tv side! She won last year and this year with a new role, she’s even better! So happy to see her back! And desperately hoping she will have a film role that puts her into Oscar talk again!
SO ANGRY ABOUT:
* no Ann dowd! The actors probably didn’t see this, because if they did she would easily be in. It’s one of the five best performances if the year IMO
* the master almost shut out. WTF?! It is a disgrace to not nominate Pheonix! This is a performance that will be remembered for years to come! Shame shame. It’s about the acting people, not the interviews. Also leaving Amy Adams off is offensive as well.
* mirren over Riva . No no no. Mirren was lovely in hitchcock, agreed. But over Riva? I think not.
Glad I’m not the only one who feels that way about Arkin and DeNiro being nominated this year. Great actors, but they were not even close to great this year and they probably crowded out MM. But if Oscar follows suit, that will make it easier for Jones to win. He’s the only one of these noms in SA that comes close to Oscar-worthy.
This is what happens when you fuck a stranger in the ass, Joaquin!
As I have yet to see “ZDT”, “SLP”, “Djano Unchained” and “Les Miserables” I won’t go into all the inane babble of who should be or shouldn’t be on the list. This said I would agree that I would have had Joaquin Phoenix in for the lurid “The Master” rather than Denzel Washington for the inane “Flight”. However, there is one thing that is very obvious. The marvelous masterpiece “Lincoln” is the definite frontrunner and the three film yet to premiere are going to have to be massive hits in order to derail “Lincoln” from taking best picture. “Lincoln” has become and continue to be such a prestigious film much like “Schindler’s List” was and the award groups circuit thus far is shouting this very fact out to all. I mean when was the last time you heard school teachers and college professor actually suggesting their students to see the film some even taking groups of students to view the film. The last time I heard of this happening was for “Schindler”s List’ and that film went on to win “OSCAR” best pic.
Alan Arkin keeps being nominated – why? Frankly, he wasn’t that good in Little Miss Sunshine either. He’s ok, but the idea that either of his performances is awards-worthy is a joke. It’s like Sandra Bullock – they want to give her an award that’s worth something so that they can be nice.
Glad to see Amy Adams and Joaquin Phoenix snubbed. I could smell the method acting off the screen from him, and from her – what exactly did she do but look determined the whole time? And Philip Seymour Hoffman wasn’t that good either.
Really happy to see Bradley Cooper and Robert de Niro – both were wonderfully, believably manic. Russell’s script is incredible and should be getting more accolades.
Sad Django isn’t here but the fact is, it’s QT and the movie is a gift enough.
Tero is right – it’s still a 3-way race for BP. ZDT needed a little cold water and it got it. It’s in fact the best 3-way race since Gladiator, Crouching Tiger, and Traffic. Arguably better; I’ll know after I see the 2 of those 3 movies that us normal civilians haven’t had a chance to see yet.
McGregor is right – Jackman is probably DDL’s only real competition. And he better BRING IT.
And I’m with Kim – I trust early reviewers on DiCaprio – certainly this category is hardly anything like, oh, say, the first year Leo got a nod, when we had the likes of Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive and John Malkovich in In the Line of Fire and Rafey boy in Schindler’s list. Of the so-far winners and nominees, only Jones and PS Hoffman really gave undeniable performances. So yeah, sorry, but Leo deserves more sight-unseen love, including from voters who have the Django DVD on their piles but haven’t felt like dedicating 3 hours yet.
Curious as to what triggered the previous post to await moderation (yes, all three of them!)
Might be because they were 3 duplicates. Did you only post once? We let one of them loose.
If the SAG Ensemble Curse is a valid curse, Lincoln won’t be the beneficiary, the winner will be Les Miz. But methinks Zero Dark will reverse the curse.
You heard it here first.
But if Lincoln took the purse, well, I could think of worse.
LIke that piece of crap Silver Linings Playbook. EGADS!
If the SAG Ensemble Curse is a valid curse, Lincoln won’t be the beneficiary, the winner will be Les Miz. But methinks Zero Dark will reverse the curse.
You heard it here first.
But if Lincoln took the purse, well, I could think of worse.
LIke that piece of shit Silver Linings Playbook. EGADS!
Sorry that BEASTS doesn’t have SAG membership, because it would have been a hoot to have Q. Wallis in the Best Actress race.
When I saw that Nicole Kidman was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for The Paperboy, I through my hands in the air in excitement and almost dropped my computer on the ground!
Yess!
No Phoenix!? WTF, SAGs, I mean, really, WTF?? Disappoint doesn’t even *begin* to describe my reaction to that.
…awesome about Bardem, though.
I’m worried about the influence of the British contingent of actors. The BAFTAs often get their wildcard picks nominated at the Oscars, or at least foretell Oscar snubs with their own snubs. British actors in movies the Brits love can edge out lesser less steady American actors. Similarly, it helps Denzel Washington and Q. Wallis (and Javier Bardem, even though Spanish people are really white!) to be people of color in a year where there are few non-white contenders.
I though Smith was terrific but par for the course. The Critics Choice omitted her, but if she gets the Globe and the BAFTA, I hope that doesn’t mean an Oscar snub for the more deserving Ann Dowd. And I haven’t seen Amy Adams, so I don’t know what to make of her. Some are saying she was excellent; others, forgettable. And of course, with or without a Globe nomination, I figure Nicole Kidman’s nominations end this week.
I’m the only one advocating a Denzel snub, but I wasn’t impressed by the movie. If Phoenix is volcanic, then he shouldn’t be left out; Denzel was too subtle for me to appreciate. And how many more chances will Hawkes and Cooper get?
As for Wallis and Riva, I would prefer Riva based on the performances. Granted, I’m rooting for Watts without having seen her movie. The Brits could also make Helen Mirren a nominee at both the Globes and BAFTAs, but I don’t see her getting an Oscar nod for her “wife-of” role in a lukewarmly received movie (even if Alma Hitchcock was important, yadda yadda yadda).
the surprise nomination is javier bardem for skyfall for best supporting actor.
@ Lila and Kasper
I haven´t seen Django, but I have seen all the other performances DiCaprio has been snubbed for. So it´s an educated guess that he is Oscar-worthy again. And really, if De Niro can get nominated as a “thank you for not sleep-walking”, I would be absolutely fine if DiCaprio got some extra points for doing exceptional, largely ignored work for a decade.
Lincoln has a shot at winning. With 13 nominations and more nominations today, it’ll be a lucky winner come Critic Choice’s Night and SAG Night.
I haven’t seen it yet, but I really believe the only actor who can beat Daniel Day Lewis at the Oscars is Hugh Jackman in LES MISERABLES. I realize the film is getting divisive reviews, but I really think that if the film is loved by the guilds, Jackman will win.
I do hope that Joaquin at least gets nominated. I wasn’t a fan of the movie as a whole, but his performance was beyond brilliant.
@Tero
It definitely didn’t deserve to win. But films that don’t deserve and win… We see them every year… I’m not talking about desrving or not. I’m talking about the Oscar game. If the actors are really into a film, they will make this film their winner. Or they will not put this film in trouble, like they did with, for example, The Artist and THL, which lost SAG. But when they don’t like a film… They destroy its chances and they clearly did not like Avatar. What I was trying to say is that THL was really strong… It got in over UIA, which I definitely see as a better cast achievement. THL has many other qualities but the acting is good, nothing special. Avatar was not strong enough to score a nod… Not surprisingly it did not win BP.
Tero, what speaks against Riva winning is that “Amour” is not that kind of movie that people will respond to emotionally. Not many, I guess. It´s a film many people respect quite a lot, ok, but it´s tough to sit through and it´s actually pretty cold – like all Haneke movies. They will probably honoring the film in the Foreign Language Category (plus nominations for Director and Riva), but I don´t see multiple wins for it.
I agree that DDL will win, but Phoenix was supposed to be a possible upset. I’ve had Riva to win for weeks now, and I am not changing this because of SAG (even when I should).
I don’t see Hawkes getting an Oscar nomination, so there’s room in Best Actor.
Most upset by no Joaquin and Amy Adams. And completely disagree that she was overrated. She is the pure evil in the film – all boiling inside. She was incredible.
Tero: “So, how do you WIN an Oscar without a SAG nomination? ”
Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock”.
But I don´t see this happen for Riva or Phoenix. Day-Lewis is unbeatable, playing such an american icon. Doesn´t matter if he won twice before, he´ll do it again. The only candidate to beat him would be an overdue, well-beloved aged actor. But there is no candidate in the game this year.
YESSSS. SAG got it right with Nicole Kidman and The Paperboy. Hope she goes all the way!
Maxim,
ZDT and Bigelow are a lock.
Phoenix will win the Oscar he deserves (no third Oscar yet for DDL)
Jessica Chastain is competing against Jennifer Laurence… but Silver Linings, together with Les Mis, will be this year’s flop at the Oscars in the 5 big categories
Bardem has been praised by critics from all over the world and thanks to his sublime acting the last Bond movie has become a global blockbuster…he will be this year’s surprise.
As for Sally Field… they would love to give her an Oscar for all her career… even if she already has two… her colleagues love her and the public as well
Yeah, I was thinking that it may have happened in Supporting categories, but never in Lead. Maybe.
Is January Jones no longer part of Mad Men?
No love for 0D30. We’ll see if the other guilds warm up to the movie. I’m surprised, honestly. Phoenix not being nominated is a joke.
Tero, I remember Marcia Gay Harden won without a SAG nomination.
WOW. The supporting actress category is wayyyyyy different from what I expected. No Amy Adams? I was also expecting to see Joaquin Phoenix nominated, as well as The Master in Best Ensemble. Didn’t expect to see Bardem nominated, either. Glad to see that Hitchcock is getting some recognition with Mirren. Also glad to see Marion (that’s always a good thing).
This is shaping up to be an interesting awards season.
Hoffman for Supporting Actor?
Icestorm, I think there are other reasons for why you are first with that lineup.
Also, Day Lewis deserves that Oscar for the most inmpressive work of his career. His entire body was giving a performance. It was incredible to watch.
“Glad to see Spader be included”
I meant included in the ensemble category.
And the Oscar winners will be>
Best picture> “ZERO DARK THIRTY”
Best director> Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor> Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress> Jessica Chastain
Best Sup. Actor> Javier Bardem
Best Sup. Actress> Sally Field
I told you first!
Glad to see Spader be included but they should have recognized more actors from Lincoln, especially in the ensemble category. All those actors delivering top notch work were a pleasure to watch.
@ Kasper Every year people cheer or complain about people who are or are not nominated from films they may not have seem. So what? Why can’t Leo’s fans do the same?
Thanks unlikely hood !
I know that it’s irksome at this stage to start thinking of reasons why people didn’t get nominated. But. Is it true that There were minimal or no screeners sent of SAG for Django?
That, along with Waltz’ category confusion could be part of there being no noms anywhere.
“Honestly, who do you think hurt the most Avatar’s winning possibilities in 2009? Obviously the actors…”
Honestly, I think what hurt Avatar’s chances the most was Avatar.
So, how do you WIN an Oscar without a SAG nomination? Thinking about Riva and Phoenix mainly. When has it happened?
Welcome! Does anyone know where I can see The Sessions, The Master, or The Paperboy online (let alone in theaters)?
Comment
@zach THANKS
Based on the trailer alone, Leo doesn’t look that good, though it’s nice to see him not take himself so seriously for a change.
It’s interesting to hear the theories about Leo canceling out with Waltz, but I thought Waltz was submitted lead for SAGs, which is a real blow to Leo. Plus, Waltz won’t be nominated again for playing the same kind of character as in Inglourious Basterds. OK, this time he may not be the evil Nazi, but as good as he is, his post-Oscar parts are all looking the same.
> “OK, this time he may not be the evil Nazi, but as good as he is, his post-Oscar parts are all looking the same.”
They look different because he’s dressed up in different outfits. But no matter what funny hats you put on his head he’s always going to sound like an evil Nazi. Sorry, just ask the three musketeers. Cardinal Richelieu was an evil Nazi.
Honestly, who do you think hurt the most Avatar’s winning possibilities in 2009? Obviously the actors… They would never crown a CGI driven film. My persinal pick then would be Basterds but I was OK with THL winning. And THL was also a film driven by one character and it still got an ensemble nod over Up In the Air, the only film that year that scored 3 acting noms. Slumdog Millionare also WON this with absolutely no well known actor from the general public. ZDT is not the frontrunner and its win is very very unlikely. Lincoln IS the frontrunner and probably only loses it if Les Miserables becomes a Titanic-esque success. SLP has no tech support and Argo’s nominations possibilities are very restricted: picture, directing, Arkin, screenplay, editing and score. In the rest, its a really long shot.
BRYAN CRANSTON with 3 noms!!!!!!!
I think it’s weird that there’s this outcry for no Leo DiCaprio… has anyone in the comments actually watched the movie? Or are you basing it on the trailer alone?
So Bardem got both the Critics Choice AND SAG nominations? Holy shit, he might actually get nominated like he deserves to be!
deniz, you can go to solarmovie for at least some films, which is how I saw Beasts of the Southern Wild and Compliance (feel free to delete this post if it’s against the rules!).
Speaking of Compliance, I do hope Ann Dowd resurfaces with the Oscars. She won’t be nominated by the Globes either, and Maggie Smith will. Hell, Maggie will also get that BAFTA nod, so does she move into 4th place ahead of both Dowd and Adams?