The Globes, SAGs – Who’s Up, Who’s Down – Oscar Ballots Go Out in 4 Days

Sounds like we’re talking about bras, doesn’t it? What has come out of the awards rush most prominently is that Lincoln is already breaking records for Steven Spielberg. It isn’t a surprise that it’s just about to cross $100 million, in only 2K theaters. But it is a surprise that it broke a SAG record for Spielberg with 4 nominations (Saving Private Ryan had two), and it’s a surprise that it just broke Spielberg’s Golden Globe record with 7. It also broke the Critics Choice record for any film, much less a Spielberg film, with 13. Maybe you’re thinking it doesn’t matter much until we hear from the DGA and the PGA. But it most certainly does matter, and if you’re paying attention you can see what’s coming. Basically, right now anyway, it is Lincoln vs. everything else. That’s mainly because three films took a little tiny bit of a hit with these awards announcements. This may or may not matter — we’ll trot out those outlier years like Crash and Chariots of Fire and Braveheart — but if you’re looking at how things usually go, Zero Dark Thirty missing a SAG ensemble (even if they didn’t get their screeners in time), and David O. Russell and Tom Hooper missing out on directing nominations at the Globes this morning might be a falter in momentum.

But getting a huge bump was Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, which has already been receiving great buzz by people who’ve seen it.  Earning two supporting actor nominations today, plus director, and screenplay, Django is tied with Argo with 5 nominations. According to Tom O’Neil from Gold Derby, that could bump Tarantino into the DGA five, and perhaps into Oscar’s Best Director race too.  It’s sort of funny since Inglourious Basterds went toe to toe with The Hurt Locker back in 2009.

The factoid about the Globes record for Spielberg came from Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg, and In Contention’s Kris Tapley dug up the Best Director stat: Only Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, The Sting and Chariots of Fire have won BP without a Globe nod for Director. Again, might mean something, might mean nothing but it’s possible that Django Unchained has just unseated David O. Russell in the Best Director race and Ang Lee might unseat Tom Hooper as well.  It is too soon to make any of those calls, of course, but just a heads up.

A quick word about Lincoln. The same way that the size of a hurricane can be forecast by people in the know, if you can’t see the enormity of Lincoln from way back when it started making money at the box office I don’t know what to tell you. That doesn’t mean it’s definitely going to win, or that it can’t be taken down by another film, it just means that anyone who isn’t looking seriously at Lincoln by now ought to find a different hobby than Oscarwatching.

If you’ve worked in the race a long time you can see a “too big to ignore” film coming from a mile away. It isn’t just the movie. It’s the director. It’s the director’s popularity. It’s the level of difficulty. It’s the box office. It’s the actors. It’s the subject matter. Lincoln has, despite what its detractors would like to think about it, the zeitgeist.   For anyone who is passionate about Lincoln the President, and passionate about US history, the film will be one of the most emotionally moving experiences of the year. If you thought it was like a “history lesson,” which in hipster/fanboy speak translates to a “bad thing,” you will not envision it taking the top prize because it didn’t move you at all. It is going to compete with Zero Dark Thirty, the critics favorite — that now has an uphill climb because of the SAG ensemble nod — Django Unchained (ditto), Les Mis (no Globe directing nod — not insurmountable) and Silver Linings Playbook (ditto). Life of Pi is also hovering around the edges and could give Lincoln some heat as well.

Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook could be like Crash — no director nod at Globes, wins Editing + SAG ensemble, loses DGA, wins Oscar for Picture. It’s not impossible. Zero Dark Thirty could be like Braveheart, no SAG ensemble nod but win DGA, then Picture and Director. Not impossible.

It’s been a while since the Oscar race has seen a film as formidable as Lincoln. iIn fact, you might have to go all the way back to Schindler’s List. Sure, the critics were more kind back then, no doubt, and there were less of them, and there wasn’t the internet. But so far, Lincoln’s only stumble is not scoring with the New York or LA critics. I expect Zero Dark Thirty to keep winning critics awards, taking National Society and Southeastern Film Critics.  We will have to wait until the DGA decides to know for sure what film takes the lead in this contentious, volatile race.

In the acting categories, Richard Gere got a nice boost for Arbitrage, as did Joaquin Phoenix and the supporting castmembers from the Master; and the off-the-radar pic Salmon Fishing in the Yemen received three Globes nods. Nicole Kidman, Helen Mirren and Naomi Watts appear to be taking a permanent spot in the race. The Weinstein Co. came in with the most nominations, 15 in total, followed by Sony with 12.

The Globes announcement was the last of the big ones. Oscar ballots will be sent out in just four days.  If they were being sent out a few weeks later, there might be wiggle room for things to change. But the race RIGHT NOW is likely tightening into the race that will turn up when Oscar nominations are announced. Since they won’t have the DGA or PGA to guide them, we might have mix-up all the way down the line.  In the past few years, things have been so predictable there hasn’t even really been a flexible Oscar race. No one can say that about this year.

119 Comments on this Post

  1. Django is on Fire. It is getting great reviews and with globs I can see Tom Missing directed for QT.

  2. Christophe

    I agree Lincoln is the big and only frontrunner at the moment and it will most likely remain that way until the Oscars, since the other main contenders are too controversial and their directors have won very recently.

    But I stand by my belief that THE ACADEMY DOES WHAT THE ACADEMY WANTS and no amount of statistics (there’s nothing less scientific than movie awards) and precursor awards/critics love can dramatically change the minds of the Academy, if they’re determined to look the other way.

    Now when it comes to Les Mis, I will already be very happy if it does well at the BO and receives lots of noms and Hathaway wins Supp. Actress. I could live with Lincoln winning the biggest prizes of the night.

  3. My guess is that Django is about to take the thunder from Les. Django is getting raves. Les Mis is getting decent at best reviews. Also Nicole is in.

  4. Last two days have been great for Django. 22 reviews on RT and still at 100%. 80% on Metacritic and 87 BFCA rating. Now all these globs love. I think the top 3 will be Lincoln, Zero dark thirty and Django.

  5. Sasha what do you think are the chances of either Les Miz or Silver Linings Playbook realistically winning Best Picture at the Oscars at this point. I know if either wins SAG Ensemble that can potentially change things. I know if either get nominaed for the DGA the conversation changes. Do you think they cannot win or is it more of a wait and see what DGA and PGA do? Also are predicting a BP/BD Split? I know you say its really hard and not a good idea to do that, but unless ZD30, Lincoln or Les MIZ sweep it feels like this one of those years for a split.

  6. Pretty nice article. I hear ya on Lincoln. I wanted to see it, I was then surprised by its boxoffice. I saw it after its third week and loved it. Every minute of it was worth watching. It’s the best Best Picture contender I’ve seen so far. (I’ve seen Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, and Lincoln. Along with long-shots The Dark Knight Rises and Anna Karenina). Still up for me is Les Mis, and The Hobbit which seems likely to go for techs only at this point. I’m also looking forward to The Impossible. As for Zero Dark Thirty, it looks great but then I wasn’t a huge fan of The Hurt Locker, but this one isn’t its sequel anyway… Tarantino I’m not a fan of, so I can easily skip on Django.

  7. Tobias (a swede)

    @Christophe
    I think u r wrong, at least when it comes to the acting categories. If u look back at the last few years AMPAS is very (very) limited nominating actors with no SAG or GG attention. And if/ when they do its only performances in films they’re watching anyway.

    SAG- Oscar matchups:
    2008: 17/20
    2009: 19/20
    2010: 17/20
    2011: 17/20

    Acting nominations w no GG and SAG attention:
    2008: Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
    2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart
    2010: Javier Bardem – Biutiful
    2011: Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud…

  8. I also think this is going to be a year where SAG, DGA and PGA split. Obviously I know since ZD30 isn’t nominated for sag it can’t sweep anyway. But I think SAG is down to SLP and Les MIZ (With Lincoln as a possibility) DGA is down to Spielberg or Bigelow and PGA is down to ZD30, Les MIz and Lincoln. Unless SLP, LINCOLN or Les MIZ gets a dga nom and wins and a pga nom and wins and one of those 3 wins the sag ensemble. THis could be a split year and I think makes a BP/BD split at the oscars that more likely

  9. CORRECTION: I meant to say DGA is down to spielberg and Bigelow

    [fixed!]

  10. LOVED Django.

  11. Yep.. This is a tough year for predicting. I do think Nicole is going to sneak in the best supporting Oscar noms. I really hope she does. Her role as Charlotte Bless is something to take note as. Amazing.

  12. Christophe

    @Tobias
    Well of course it matches, because they have similar tastes. What I’m saying is the Academy doesn’t pick up the Sag or any other organization’s list of nominees to decide who they’ll vote for, they decide on their own and most of the time they agree because they came to the same conclusion on their own, not because they were influenced, and of course there’s always room for surprises.

  13. For some reason I keep thinking that this is a well deserved hit on Jeff Wells, but then again I must just be reading too much in between the lines.

  14. Also Sasha, Where are you in terms of the acting races? Any way DDL does’t win? and if so who are you feeling will upset there? Also we all know its down to J.Chastain and J.Lawrence. Do you think it will come down to the wire for either of them or do you see a clear cut winner now? Is Anne Hathaway still locked in for a win? Or do you think Lincoln will sweep and Sally Field as well as Tommy Lee jones are winning. I know all of this is incredibly hard to call since no major awards have actually been given out but im just curious on what your gut is telling you at this point in the oscar race.

  15. The most important thing we learned yesterday is these people vote without seeing the films. Jessica Chastain got a nomination without screeners of her film getting to SAG voters. They vote based on buzz and how much they like the actor/actress.

    I’m kind of thinking Django Unchained might be too violent for the Academy. Les Miz isn’t turning out to be the powerhouse I thought it would be. So it comes down to Lincoln vs ZD30. Death of Bin Laden is recent memory and unifying so I’m going to put my bets on ZD30 for the final win.

  16. I will never forget when Crash won best picture. I was following the race, Brokeback was winning everything and deservedly so. I got back to my college dorm and sadly missed Clooney’s acceptance speech for Syriana, one of my personal favorites. Ang Lee won best director. He couldn’t have missed that. And then…Crash was read aloud. I jumped off my flimsy mattress and yelled at the TV. My friend was laughing because he wanted me to be pissed. I, alongside the film community, was blind sided. The King’s Speech was foreseen with the DGA and SAG ensemble, so beating The Social Network wasn’t a surprise. It was partially inevitable. But nobody saw Crash coming, except Ebert said it was the film of the year. Crash barely had the reviews for a best picture nomination. If I saw an alternate to Brokeback, it was Capote. Crash was last on everyone’s list that night. Zero Dark Thirty can win all the critics awards. Lincoln can win all the guilds. Argo and Les Miz can win at the box office. But in the end The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel could win it all. In the last couple of years I’ve learned to trust nothing. Everything before the Oscars pretty much says who’s in the race. That’s it.

  17. Is it me or is dialogue from Django really ” a refreshment” too close to ” Pulp Fiction” from 18 years ago.

  18. Jerry Grant

    Man this website ignored the possibility of Django for so long, choosing to tout the prospects of Les Miz, which they hadn’t seen either. Anyone who pays attention to Tarantino knows this was never going to be a slight movie or anything less than extremely challenging, unpredictable, fun, and packed with impressive talent. Tarantino is squarely in the 4-way director contest for those 2 spots.

  19. Ang Lee is on the outs. GG loves him, doesn’t mean Oscar will.

  20. The whole record breaking thing for Spielberg angle is widely blown out of proportion.

    SAG or BFCA wasn’t even around for most of his career(!)

    Actors in his films won SAG, GLOBE, BAFTA and critics awards before.

    And, as mentioned, BFCA total is a record for ANY film.

    He just scored 11th Directing nomination at the Globes – that’s the most impressive record of them all.

  21. The real state of the race today:

    *Lincoln
    *Argo
    *ZDT
    *SLP
    *The Life of Pi

    Following this, only 2 movies:

    *The Master ( I really think Academy will embraces PTA movie, and it’s all I want), but I need see the truth, fou Best Pi I think, today, it’s 6th or 7th.)
    *Django Unchained

    TBEMH and Les Mis are only flops and senseless noms.

    This is the naked truth.

  22. filmboymichael

    What is this golden globe record??? It isn’t the most nominated film ever, that goes to nashville, with cabaret, titanic and bugsy in second….

    Is it just that it’s the most nominated Steven Spielberg film?

  23. Man this website ignored the possibility of Django for so long, choosing to tout the prospects of Les Miz

    HUH? Sorry but unlike the majority of Oscar websites we don’t hype movies no one has yet seen. You can splooge all over your Tarantino imaginings but nothing is real until the movie is seen. Period. Anyone who says “I called Django back in the summer” is spitting in the wind and getting lucky.

  24. Also Sasha, Where are you in terms of the acting races?

    I don’t know because winning a 3rd seems unlikely but if it isn’t Day-Lewis whom might it be? Not Phoenix. Maybe Jackman? It’s too soon to know for me. I know who gave the best performance but not who will win. I think Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain could win in Actress. The supporting categories are wide open. If Les Miz’ reviews continue to tank I don’t even know if Hathaway is safe.

  25. Christophe is right. Academy members don’t pay much attention to precursors; if their nominations match closely with those of another group, it’s likely because these two groups share similar tastes and/or memberships. They vote how they want to. Last year, the critics told them to vote for Drive, the guilds told them to vote for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, the Globes told them to vote for The Ides of March, the BAFTAs told them to vote for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. What did they do? They voted for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

    Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook could be like Crash — no director nod at Globes, wins Editing + SAG ensemble, loses DGA, wins Oscar for Picture. It’s not impossible. Zero Dark Thirty could be like Braveheart, no SAG ensemble nod but win DGA, then Picture and Director. Not impossible.

    But Crash also won the editing Oscar, which neither Les Mis nor (particularly, as it may not even be nominated) Silver Linings Playbook are likely to do. Their ACE Eddie win would be easy, for either film, as the ACE separates its categories like the Golden Globes.

    Braveheart didn’t win DGA. It won the ACE Eddie and the Golden Globe for Best Director. That was it. If that’s all Zero Dark Thirty can pull off, it’s in a bad state indeed.

    *Braveheart also won BFCA Best Director, but this was in the BFCA’s infancy. Again, if 0D30 wins this too, it’ll still be in bad state.

  26. It’d be a shame if Daniel Day-Lewis didn’t win, even if it is a third. His performance was amazing. It was like watching Abe Lincoln himself- seeing him in that role you don’t think “this is an actor portraying the president” you think “this IS the president”. I’m looking forward to Les Miz, and Jackman an excellent role to possibly get the win, but it’ll be difficult.

  27. Jerry Grant

    @Sasha I totally agree with that approach, and respect that you hold out on predictions before they were seen. But there was a readiness to put Les Miz at the top of the list once tepid reviews came out and a real slowness and wariness to indicate Django, Tarantino, DiCaprio, or Waltz (Waltz wasn’t even listed on your right tab among the possibilities) even after people had seen it and raved enthusiastically. It made me curious while it was happening is all.

  28. thanks filmboymichael — added missing words to clarify

    Lincoln, 7 GG nominations
    Schindler’s List, 6 GG noms
    Saving Private Ryan, Color Purple, ET, 5 GG noms each

  29. But there was a readiness to put Les Miz at the top of the list once tepid reviews came out

    Not here though, Jerry. Not here.
    The past couple of weeks we’ve acknowledged that others had vaulted Les Mis, but you’ve surely felt wariness here.

  30. Braveheart and Crash-Trash are so bad and the worst BP winners… we only remember them like exeptions…
    History and time never forget.

  31. Jerry Grant wannabe

    How is it a surprise that Lincoln broke those records aside from the GG? As far as the BFCA is concerned, it only added the tech categories in the past couple of years. As far as SAG is concerned, you more than anyone else, has been touting the film and its acting (even though Sally Field’s performance was more repulsive than Nicole Kidman’s in The Paperboy).

    As far as the Globes are concerned, while not surprised they nominated all the heavyweights, I am surprised that it was for such an American movie and not War Horse, a more internationally-minded film, which went mostly unnoticed at the Globes

  32. Where’ s the shame of DDL losing for Lincoln and don’ t winning at his 5th nom?
    Shame is Laurence Olivier (whit 10 noms) and James Stewart (5 noms) have only 1 Oscar.
    Even Streep needed 17 noms to win her 2nd as Leading.
    Please, let’s think whit some historical perspective.

  33. The Globes are not the best precursor to go by. SAG in the acting categories are more important since the same people probably have voting rights with AMPAS. The BAFTAs will let us know if and where any changes are likely to be – gotta remember that this is the state of the race today and not in 4 weeks time. Lincoln has all the heat right now and it should maintain the heat since the actors are practically sweeping the critics awards. I personally think there is still the potential for Bigelow and Hooper to not get a Directing nod because they have both won more recently. And I too can see a split happening this time – not even sure the Academy will want to give Spielberg a third for directing.

  34. When Tom Hooper and David O’Russel wasn’t nominated for Golden Globes, I took a look at some recent history. 2002 was the last year when a director wasn’t nominated for a golden globe and went on to win the oscar for directing. Roman Polanski for “The Pianist”. So there is still some chance that either TH or DOR or both could be nominated and one of them can win, especially since they both were nominated for best picture there and got a SAG ensemble nom. I know though that in all liklihood even if they get an oscar nom, their chance of winning is diminished. Unless Momentum for Les Miz becomes massive once its actually released.

  35. This is definitely one of the most exciting races in a long time. Everytime a clear cut winner looks to be named, another movie comes out and steals its thunder. The Master seemed to kick everything off. Reviews were divisive but there was a lot of love for the performances. Then Argo was released and everybody loved it. That was the frontrunner. THen Silver Linings PLaybook was shown at toronto and that became the crowdpleaser and the new frontrunner. Then Lincoln came out and everybody loved DDL and box office was there and critics went nuts for it. Then Les MIz was screened and the first initial screenings declared that the winner. Then Zero Dark Thirty came out and blew critics away, started winning critics awards. By this point Lincoln seemed to lose its frontrunner status. Now Django is getting great reviews and people are really loving that. Once ZD30 failed to get a Sag ensemble nomination, buzz dipped. Now that Tom Hooper and David O’russell didn’t get bd nominations at the golden globes (chalk that up to there movies being nominated in the best comedy/musical category since they keep getting critics award nominations and got a BFCA nomination) buzz for those movies has dipped. Now Lincoln’s momentum has gone back up. Its definitely an interesting race so far. Different awards groups could split. Add that to the fact that oscar nominations come out 2 weeks earlier, which gives oscar voters more time to think about things, which can be a good or bad thing to any movie’s buzz and momentum; we could not have a clear cut obvious winner anywhere until Oscar night. That would make it a nice change of pace than the last few years considering everything since The Departed was pretty much pre ordained once Sag, Pga and Dga winners were announced. Here’s hoping its the same and we go into oscar night unsure of a lot of winners.

  36. I think the biggest thing to take away from the GG is that it narrows the BP race to three contenders: Lincoln, ZDT, and Argo. Everybody us, take 5.

  37. If Lincoln or Argo don’t win the Sag Ensemble, it will be a real race!

  38. I don’t know why, but I have a felling that Les Mis might go the same route Chicago went 10 years ago: Sup. Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Sound Mixing and Editing*. Then, it takes Best Picture. A giant stretch? Yessssssss. Could happen? Of course (and it would be very funny).
    * Instead of Editing, Les Mis could take Song home.

  39. It’s “Lincoln” by far. Possibly “Zero Dark Thirty”. I still think “The Impossible” will have a late surge once more people see it and make the BP lineup.

  40. In my opinion it’s a shame because his was the best role I’ve seen all year, I understand that history says someone else should win, but IMO it shouldn’t matter if an actor/actress has won multiple time in the past- if their the best of the year than their the best of the year, and so far he’s the best of the year IMO.

  41. Les Miserables is a strange one. The critics definitely are not going for it. BUT, I really feel like a lot of the guilds will (SAG already, probably PGA, the below-the-line guilds). I keep reading how the Academy (on the whole) are really enjoying it. I think it will do very, very well box office-wise. And I believe it will be nominated for Best Picture still.

    All that said, I just think that Lincoln is in the drivers seat. It has everything going for it. It’s timely. It’s got Spielberg. It’s got amazing acting. Wonderful writing. Wonderful below-the-lines. It feels like a consensus; though, ZD30 and Argo are similar.

  42. The Great Dane

    The WEIRDEST Golden Globe stat is the year where Crash won the Oscar for Best Picture. That year the Globes had TWELVE BEST PICTURE NOMINEES in total – and Crash was not among the twelve. :/

  43. The Great Dane

    Les Misérables has ONE shot left to win: If it gets nominated for Best Director and by the time of final ballots have become a big 200 million dollar phenomenon, it can take the price for being so damn popular – in Titanic style. But Les Misérables can go either way: It can end up earning 70 million dollars, and it can end up earning 300 million dollars. There’s just no way of knowing if the public will get behind it or not. And the only way it can with is by being the most ‘popular’, cause it won’t win for being the best, apparently.

  44. rufussondheim

    Clearly the last film that was too big to ignore was Return of the King. People were predicting that 2 years before it was even released.

    The one thing Lincoln has over Zero Dark Thirty in the race is that the cast is well-known enough to generate Oscar Buzz just by being cast in the film. The presence of Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones (and their deserved praise) gives them a two category edge whenever the tallies are announced. Plus ZDT doesn’t have costumes and art direction to rely on for extra noms.

    ZDT, on the other hand has several well-known actors, but for their TV work, not previous Oscar Winners like Lincoln. Plus the actors in ZDT aren’t given scenery-chewing scenes to showcase their best stuff. It’s a tough climb for any of them even to get noticed. Even Jessica Chastain was not considered a strong possibility to win just a month ago.

    It’s a close call. But I think ZDT has the edge here. And I say that because, well, the history angle is a small one. If Hollywood were enthralled with history than we would see far more films based in non-war history. But we don’t. I don’t see the Academy going ga-ga for Lincoln because they have a deep-seated admiration for Lincoln. If they did, they would be history professors or Gettysburg Tourist Guides.

    Zero Dark Thirty, on the other hand is near and dear to every single AMPAS voter since they lived through 9/11. Most have strong ties to New York having made their start there, or was involved in a project based there. I’d be willing to bet that a fairly high percentage have homes in NY or the surrounding area.

    In other words, I don’t get the argument that Lincoln has it over ZDT because for “anyone who is passionate about Lincoln the President, and passionate about US history, the film will be one of the most emotionally moving experiences of the year.”

    One thing I do know, watching that raid on the Bin Laden compound expertly recreated, hearing those footsteps, damn, no that’s riveting and emotional and unforgettable. And award worthy.

  45. I completely agree with The Great Dane. If the movie becomes to popular to ignore, like Titanic, it could win. If Tom Hooper gets nominated for it then it will make it that much more likely. If Tom Hooper doesn’t get nominated than it could make it that much harder since “Driving Miss Daisy” still is the last movie to win without a best director nomination. Although with there being possibly more than 5 Best Picture nominees it makes everything different. We have yet to see the benefits of having more nominees really affect anything. If a best picture nominee from 2009-2011 won without the director being nominated than that stat wouldn’t seem so insormountable. But since the winners were seeminly what would of won had there still ONLY been 5 bp nominees its hard to tell. IF David O’Russel, Quentin Tarantino or Tom Hooper fail to be nominated for Best Director, this could possibly be a year where there is a best picture winner without having its director’s even nominated. If I can remember the 2 times people seriously thought this was a possibility was with “Moulin Rouge” and “Little MIss Sunshine”. So depending on how much academy love “Les Miz”, “Django”, and “Silver Linings PLaybook” get, especially from the actors, this could be year the director doesn’t drive best picture. Now it ZD30, Lincoln or Argo win then this is all moot. However its unclear if there will be a guild favorite or if everything will split. Very exciting nonetheless!

  46. rufussondheim

    The Sound of My Voice is vexing and provocative and enchanting. It’s a must see. And it will be roundly ignored by the Academy. Not sure quite where it’s going in my top 10 right now, but it will be above any film that’s currently released and in the running for BP.

  47. Mike Scott

    ACADEMY – CONSIDER THIS – THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER

    ;)

    At the very least it needs an Adapted Screenplay nomination, but I’d really love to see it get into one of the main categories, like Supporting Actress or Supporting Actor. It’s very unlikely at this point though. Had the Globes gone for Emma Watson I think a nomination for her would have been possible. Logan Lerman deserves so much more attention than he’s gotten but his category is much tougher.

    I still sincerely hope Summit re-expands this film for the holidays. That’s all I want for Christmas :P.

  48. The Great Dane

    And the fact that the Globes nominated the five Best Drama Pictures for Best Director is both a big fat finger to the comedy/musical category in general – but the big category where the Globes are WAY off is always Best Director. It never looks the same at the Oscars.

    In the last ten years, these have been Best Director nominees at the Globes but missed out on a Oscar nomination:
    George Clooney, The Ides of March
    Christopher Nolan, Inception
    Clint Eastwood, Invitus
    Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
    Joe Wright, Atonement
    Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
    Ridley Scott, American Gangster
    Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
    Woody Allen, Match Point
    Peter Jackson, King Kong
    Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
    Mike Nichols, Closer
    Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
    Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
    Spike Jonze, Adaptation
    Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    Alexander Payne, About Schmidt

    That’s a LOT of people in ten years to get a Director Globe nod and then get snubbed by the Oscars. The

    And yes, in 2002 Roman Polanski won Best Director at the Oscars – and was not nominated for the Globe, and that’s not the first time that has happened.

    The last time the Globes went completely five for five with the Oscars for Best Director was 35 YEARS AGO in 1977! So Hooper or O’Russell should/could still make it based on that statistic. So the Globes have existed for 70 years now, and it the last half of that time, 35 years, they have not been able to get this category to mirror the Oscars. :)

  49. Mike Scott

    rufussondheim, I loved The Sound of My Voice. If the world were a just place Brit Marling would have been a contender for Best Supporting Actress. I will say I prefer her previous film, last year’s Another Earth, but both are great pieces of work. Really looking forward to seeing what she does in the future. She’s one to watch for fans of thought-provoking cinema.

  50. rufussondheim

    Yeah, that too!

  51. LaQuifa Wadley

    Sasha,

    It sounds as if your talking about Lindsay’s panties, when she wears them.

  52. Jack Traven II

    This year’s Oscar race is really exciting. And it’s so great to have Spielberg back in the game. Just as I said some time ago (and it seems to become clearer now) next year’s Oscar show could be the long-awaited possibility of letting a new record of a film winning 12 Oscars happen. So, Lincoln might not just be Ms. Right Now, it might even be Ms. Right Now and Forever. If the Academy wants a film to win the full dozen, a film like Lincoln seems to be just perfect for that. It’s got the talent. It’s got the buzz. It’s got the box office. And it’s got the story. A story about a president who fought against unspeakable injustice and bled for his country. A country so divided nowadays that not even the first black president seems to change that, let alone a film. But who knows. Some more publicity for a film basically praising diversity doesn’t hurt either, right?

  53. rufussondheim

    I haven’t seen Another Earth, but that will definitely go up my Netflix Queue that is getting longer and longer. But I am trying to watch as many 2012 films as possible before we have our mock voting here (assuming it happens) so it will have to wait.

  54. Lincoln & Les Mis are my “me” films while Django, Zero Dark Thirty & SLP are my “eat your vegetables” you might like them films. All are obviously good films which mean a great season. Now that being said, I finally read what I consider a totally fair review of Les Mis. It doesn’t gush and it doesn’t slam with slant or ignorance, so kudos to IGN http://www.ign.com/articles/2012/12/11/les-miserables-review#.UMpkjLksYzQ.twitter

  55. The acting nominees for Oscar will be this way:

    ACTOR
    Daniel Day-Lewis
    John Hawkes
    Denzel Washington
    Joaquin Phoenix
    Hugh Jackman

    ACTRESS
    Jessica Chastain
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Quvenzhané Wallis
    Marion Cotillard
    Naomi Watts

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Tommy Lee Jones
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Alan Arkin
    Matthew McCounaghey

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Anne Hathaway
    Helen Hunt
    Sally Field
    Amy Adams
    Anne Dowd

  56. rufussondheim

    SPOILERS FOR SOUND OF MY VOICE

    Now I know this is the second film this year that let us believe that the impossible was possible and it’s been a more common occurrance as of late in film overall (it happened a couple of times last year too) and it’s a device that will wear out pretty quickly if it gets too popular.

    But Sound of My Voice was more than that, it gave us interesting characters with a complex relationship that was thrown into the wringer at film’s end. So it’s far more interesting to me and not just a “is it real” conundrum that we can or can decide for ourselves.

    I may end up hating Sound of My Voice if I put some thought into it. After all something must not be the case and there’s lots of stuff that’s thrown in there with the girl that may not be on the up and up, like what’s with the shot in the toe) and maybe the whole thing is just a gimmick and there’s no consistency in the story.

    But for right now, it’s a gloriously made puzzle that just utterly entranced me.

  57. Les Miserables is a strange one. The critics definitely are not going for it. BUT, I really feel like a lot of the guilds will (SAG already, probably PGA, the below-the-line guilds).

    It will be a tough sell for non-actors.

  58. knee_play

    i think SLP could be this year’s Up in the Air: strong but over-hyped early crowd-pleaser contender which faded quickly, will have a bunch of noms, will (deservedly) go home empty-handed.

    a week ago i would’ve said that Lincoln is definitely winning but after actually seeing it a few days ago, i can’t see that happening. what a dreadfully boring movie. i think it’s probably a lock for Actor, Adapted Screenplay and possibly Supporting Actor, Art Direction and whatnot.

    they’re gonna want to give ZD30 something big so it’ll get Actress, Original Screenplay and possibly Cinematography and/or Editing. Django Unchained might take Supporting Actor from Lincoln. Les Miserables will get supporting actress. Life of Pi might get cinematography.

    finally, i think Argo will take Picture, Director and possibly Editing. Argo’s the perfect middle-ground: entertaining, crowd-pleasing and smart but not too brainy (ZD30, Lincoln). and it’s got charming, well-liked guys like Affleck and Clooney doing the rounds as producers.

    oh, and it’ll be a travesty if Emmanuelle Riva doesn’t get an Oscar nod, which seems quite likely at this point.

    just my thoughts.

  59. Ivan,

    Do you really think Ann Dowd will still get in at the Oscars? I’d love to see it happen. But I almost feel Kidman is getting in now.

    rufussondheim,

    As fascinating as I found Voice I will say that the ending is a little on the unsatisfying side. It raises some intriguing questions and I have no problem with a film leaving viewers to draw their own conclusions, but it’s almost like they ran into a dead-end and didn’t know where to go with the film so it just ends. I need to see it again though to make up my mind. But other than that it’s so well-done with some great scenes that are surprisingly intense. Making these scenes as intense as they were definitely takes skill. That and a bewitching performance by Marling.

  60. who knows

    Every winner is predictable except for best actress category. It’s either Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain that’s going to end up winning. I can’t completely say if Chastain will win at the end because I thought she overreacted a lot in Zero Dark Thirty. She gave a far better performance in The Help. I also can’t say if Lawrence will win because she’s too young… and was in a romcom.

  61. Relax! DDL is a lock. This “oh… it’s number 3″ will not prevent him from winning. Amazingly winning number 3 is less of an impediment than all the others face… and none of them is more respected than DDL or is playing Abraham Lincoln.
    * Jackman is in a musical (hardly ever wins lead) and is “sexiest man alive-guy”… the Academy usually goes for sexiest woman alive… but the male stars don’t share the same luck.
    * Cooper is very good in that role… but he’s not a very respected actor, his body of work is not good and he also faces the male star problem.
    * Danzel has won 2 and his film lacks passion… and even the reviews are good but not in the level of other films. And it’s highly unlikely to get another nomination.
    * Joaquin plays a very tough character in a very divisive film and… in the end he said those things about the Oscars. I think he should have won for Walk the Line instead of PSH, who could easily win now if he had not won a lead before.
    * John Hawkes… just like Danzel I’m not even convinced he will be nominated. Another film that lacks passion despite good to great reviews and that has close to zero buzz. Something tells me he will miss just like Liam Neeson for Kinsey… the reward for the film will be Hunt.

    That said, it’s clear for me that DDL’s win is set in the stone just like he was for There Will Be Blood, Helen Mirren for The Queen or PSH was for Capote… they were the winners months before the ceremony.

  62. I’d like to see Day-Lewis try some comedy. Maybe after that we can annoint him The Greatest Actor Ever.

    His best film by far is There Will Be Blood and it will probably find it’s way into the ranks of The Best Films of All Time, but after that entry there is quite a drop-off. There are solid performances in My Left Foot and he’s the best one, but overall, the movie is a pretty standard biopic.

    If I got a vote, it would be hard to vote for someone other than him as Best Actor, except giving him his THIRD Best Actor Oscar would make me scrutinize each of the other nominees more than anything else, which is what I hope the Academy does.

    Poor Suraj Sharma would have had to play lost-at-sea, shed some weight, grow out his hair, and be named Tom Hanks to get any kind of Academy love.

  63. I have to ask those who continue to make stubborn claim that LES MISERABLES is either tanking with critics or is getting “bad” reviews. Where are you people getting this information from??

    There are two American sites that are usually used for concensus reference, MC and RT. Both of these sites have major faults, but they are really the only and easiest way to figure what is going on.

    First of all, as the film opens on December 25, we won’t have a satisfactory picture as to sufficient numbers until a day or two before that release. Right now as I speak METACRITIC has the film at a mediocre “56” with only a scant 12 reviews tabulated. The number is so tiny that it must realistically be put aside until a far greater number of films come into the tabulation.

    Short of an acceptable number, we are forced to move over to ROTTON TOMATOES, where again as I speak the film has a pretty solid grade of 75% (30 to 10). While even the 40 critics (yes I know about the ‘top critic’ argument) who have been sorted in do not represent anywhere near the final number, at least there are 40, of of those 40 three-quarters love, like or give passing grades to the film.

    Three-quarters of RT “critics” lining up as favorable combined with an inclusive number at MC adds to a solidly favorable if unspectacular response.

    At this point in time the ‘bad reviews for LES MIS’ argument is an illusion, with no facts to stand on.

  64. @The Great Dane

    “The last time the Globes went completely five for five with the Oscars for Best Director was 35 YEARS AGO in 1977! So Hooper or O’Russell should/could still make it based on that statistic.”

    No one is denying that Hooper or O’Russell still can get nominations. You wasted your time pulling up all those directors. The question is can they or their films win in the end after this snub and on those factors, statistics are not in their favor. Anything is possible and we still have DGA to come, but their chances doesn’t look too good right now.

  65. And to add what Sam Juliano said (that Les Mis is actually at 75% RT now) … a lot of those critics who are posting negative reviews are giving Les Miserables mediocre scores (50, 60, 70), but slamming them with their written word.

    I almost feel as if some of them have a prejudice against the material ahead of time and then the film was good enough that they couldn’t get away with giving outright pans (20, 30, 40).

  66. Any way you look at it, I think that the overall buzz that Les Miserables isn’t as strong as Lincoln or ZD30 or Argo or Django, etc.. will hurt it’s chances for a Best Pic win more than the actual reviews will. Because like we always say, the Academy will do what they want, anyway.

  67. Nice blog, Sasha.

    This whole race started for me when I saw Lincoln and was compelled to write my first post ever here at awardsdaily after I had seen it at the NYFF. Before Lincoln, I had seen The Master and Argo. And although I thought those were great films, Lincoln was the one that made me feel exactly the way you said here. (Saw too Flight and Silver Linings Playbook, and they were not so good IMHO)

    I don’t know if Lincoln will win the Oscar, or not, but already is one of my favorite films. I don’t think it is a perfect film, like some people, I do think Spielberg dragged the end a bit. But I love the film as it is, because it inspired me AS IT IS. Like I said before here, I’m not an expert or an academy member, but as a commoner, I like what I like.

    I still have to see Les Mis, 0D30, Life of Pi and Django Unchained. Now back in Brazil, I will be able to see these only starting Dec 25. I cannot wait to see and believe I will enjoy them based on the commentaries so far. And I am sure all of them deserve a shot at the Oscars.

    In the end, the winners are all of us film lovers. There is something for every single one of us in this batch that came out this year. Wonderful…

  68. alan of montreal

    “Sounds like we’re talking about bras, doesn’t it?”

    That line almost made the potatoes I’m eating shoot out of my nose.

  69. LaQuifa Wadley

    Best Actress will be a mothereffing toss-up up until Oscar night. I can see Jess and Jenn winning the globe. SAG going for Jess and Bafta for Marion. It will be a total clusterfuck.

  70. Oh great I just hit something on my keyboard that made everything tiny. lol

    Anyhoo, I think this season’s pretty much over. I thought it was gonna be fun but it’s going the same way where it seems like people vote without watching. I thought with all the great movies this year voters might get into it and make it interesting. But it’s just as predictable as any other year.

    On that note, I think that you’ve done better than I can remember Sasha. Not that you weren’t good before but you seem to have called everything pretty accurately this season. :)

    I need some kind of rehab program to help me get over caring about this stuff. But for now I guess I’ll get behind DJANGO, which I also haven’t seen but at least I’m a fan of most everyone involved. And speaking of, I wanna give extra kudos and thanks to Mr. Harvey Weinstein for organizing that amazing 12-12-12 concert last night. I had the best time rockin’ out in my living room. If the zombie apocalypse comes next Friday at least we went out with a bang. :D

  71. great race. usually i can predict every last thing that will happen. this year ive been stumped and floored. cant wait till the 10th. would be hilarious if django snuck out of nowhere and won best picture. would put a great ending to an unpredictable season.

  72. Yahoo! Movies softens the blow for me by pointing out 2 obvious snubs:

    Snub: “The Dark Knight Rises”
    A dark night fell on “The Dark Knight Rises,” the final in the Christopher Nolan thrillogy that got tremendous reviews, earned $1 billion worldwide, and received an adoring response from audiences. And it still could get no HFPA love, and did not manage a nomination for Nolan or stars Christian Bale, Tom Hardy, and Michael Caine. Not even screenplay?

    Snub: Jennifer Lawrence, “The Hunger Games”
    Sure, Lawrence got her expected due, nominated for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical for “Silver Linings Playbook,” setting up an Oscar match between her and Jessica Chastain. But didn’t she really deserve the love for the blockbuster girl-power movie of the year, “The Hunger Games,” in which she is the ultimate reluctant warrior-princess?

  73. Unlikely hood

    Radich has the right attitude. Some of y’all should take notes.

  74. rufuss, You hit the nail on the head in your comments on Zero Dark Thirty. I was blown away by this movie. I saw it at an early screening and it was one of the most incredible experiences I have ever had at the cinema for a new release. My heart was racing through so many scenes, even those that I already knew the outcome (Jennifer Ehle’s meeting and of course the brilliantly staged and executed raid scene), truly a testament to the outstanding direction and vision of Kathryn Bigelow.

    Having an all-star Oscar-caliber cast like Lincoln is surely a way for a film to get noticed by the Academy. It certainly worked that way for the King’s Speech. Yes, the performances in Zero Dark Thirty aren’t as scene chewing, and the actors not as highly regarded… but Kathryn Bigelow made some truly inspired choices in her casting. I loved Jason Clarke as Dan, his scene with the monkey before he returns to the U.S. in particular is well played. He deserves some attention, along with Jessica Chastain. Jennifer Ehle was also very good. What makes everything work and come together, however, is that no one’s presence takes you out of the movie. It feels inhabited, the scenes and the action real.

    When it comes down to looking at Zero Dark Thirty alongside Lincoln, I feel this story like you said is more urgent, more immediate. Whether that will translate to a Best Picture win remains to be seen. You as the viewer are placed in the middle of everything as it occurs, while also seeing the very personal story of Jessica Chastain’s character unfold. My audience absolutely loved it and surprisingly laughed out loud in a few places–I’m excited to see what the public reaction is in January. Two things stand out to me and I hope can explain why I think it the film is so special: FIRST—It is at the vanguard of the war movie genre, not only as a film telling an honest portrayal of our recent past BUT also as a piece of journalism that reports what went down to the world. This combination of the cinematic + writing of history by Mark Boal so soon after it happened, how they blend seamlessly, is a remarkable achievement on the part of the filmmakers, deserving of awards attention. AND SECOND—Kathryn Bigelow proves for the doubters that she is the real deal, one of our great filmmakers and “least sentimental cultural custodians.” What an accomplishment to bring one of the defining stories of OUR LIFETIME to the screen with such a defined vision in what may be her most personal work. I don’t think there is one scene that does not fit in this film and does not add to the overall work, building to that glorious glorious final moment.


    P.S. Sasha, did you not remember the Return of the King or Titanic Oscar nights? So now winning 11 Academy Awards is not formidable? Especially Lord of the Rings going 11 for 11?? These wins were so undeniable that those telecasts had the highest TV ratings in recent years.

  75. @Sam Juliano

    Les Miserables is still only a quarter of the way to reaching a consensus score on Metacritic, yet it already has more mixed/negative reviews than Argo and Lincoln combined (which have already reached a consensus). And for a movie that’s supposedly “love/hate”, with 12 reviews on Metacritic, Les Miserables has no scores above 80. Where’s the “love”? Argo and Lincoln have 29 and 23 scores above 80 respectively. And Zero Dark Thirty, which also only has 12 reviews on Metacritic, already has 11 scores above 80.

    Now you may not consider that “bad”, but in comparison to the other major contenders, it’s certainly not “good”.

  76. @Sasha

    Why do you say Les Mis will be a tough sell to non-actors?

    (and I wonder if certain people here will ever stop calling him O’Russell…His name is David Russell. His middle name is Owen.)

  77. Well, at the beginning of the year some of us were wondering how HW was going to play his horses this year since he had 3 thoroughbreds. We took a breath when he delivered The Master early, saw the slight of hand attempt at promoting, then downplaying, the success SLP at the festivals so as not to jinx it, giving it a harmless “underdog” feel. I think most of us thought that saving Django for the end of the year was a huge risk given that Tarantino can be a acquired taste, but it looks like Harvey measured that path exactly right.

    Instincts say Weinstein will laser-focus on a full push for Django from now to the end of the Oscar race. The Master and SLP will settle in their appropriate places, oscar-wise, while Django becomes the (critically adored) David to Lincoln’s Goliath.

    Pi and Les Mis will probably be peripheral characters, but I’m guessing is that what we have is a replay of Inglorious Basterds/Avatar/Hurt Locker showdown, and the outcome just might be a little different this time.

  78. David Lindsey

    I have no doubt that Daniel Day Lewis will make history Oscar night, and win Oscar number 3.

  79. rufussondheim

    Lincoln would have been better in 3D with everyone painted blue. Or maybe not.

  80. Lincoln is BY FAR the best film I have seen this year. Unless ZDT completely blows me away, I have a feeling that is the way I will be rooting come Oscar night as well.

    Go team Lincoln.

  81. The first thing anyone has to realize or rather accept about Lincoln is that the public has embraced it. At this time of year with all the hype around the big films being released Lincoln should have begun to slip in the box office. It hasn’t and that’s simply because the public has responded to the experience and like it or not Lincoln is an experience. Maybe it’s box office will begin to fall off but I think it has some time to basque in the winter sun. When you can still see the images created by Spielberg five weeks after seeing the film then you know you’ve seen something that excelled your expectations and probably the expectations of everyone involved in the project.

    To this day I can still see the stark images of the trees in New Zealand that were part of the incredible cinematography of Jane Campion’s The Piano and hear the score. I’m not a big fan of movie score CD’s but The Piano is one of my all time favorite movie scores. Michael Nyman’s score is incredible. I can still see the drug addicted catatonic state of Katherine Hepburn in Long Days Journey and of course Meryl Streep making that choice. The thing that struck me so much about Lincoln wasn’t all the wheeling and dealing but those moments when he related those personal stories to who ever was listening that marked him as just an ordinary man who ended up with an extraordinary job.

    There’s so much that’s right about Lincoln that it’s hard to just say that the only really right thing is Daniel Day Lewis and rarely do you find a performance such as DDL’s. But what Spielberg has achieved here is that he shares the wealth. Lincoln is the star of Lincoln but only because DDL was allowed to find Lincoln. That’s Spielberg’s achievement. He managed to allow his cast to find their own individual voice and then managed for some to control them enough that they didn’t become post scripts.

    Lincoln’s only competition in my opinion is Zero. If Zero had been released next year you wouldn’t have to even consider worrying about Zero and Lincoln splitting the vote and canceling each other out. But at the same time that doesn’t mean that the Best Picture race doesn’t hold a lot of good contenders. Argo is still a standout and now Django enters the fray. It’s not a year when you shake your head and go what the hell were they thinking. It’s almost this year as if film has found an intelligence level that we haven’t seen in a long time. And I don’t mean individually but consistently across the board. The directors have found that there is intelligent life on earth after all and not everyone is satisfied having a piece of Twilight heaped onto their plate. The proof of that is the inclusion by the GG of Salmon Fishing and Exotic Marigold in their line-up. Small films, but good films that don’t reach beyond what they really are to be something else. They’re just pleasant experiences with good performances. Hope Springs was an intelligent look at a marriage that has become pedestrian with time where one committed partner wants more than to walk along yawning. Hope Springs doesn’t over reach. It’s a shame Steve Carrell didn’t get more attention because if you’ve done couples therapy you’d know that his psychologist was pretty right on the money.

    Yes we have the eternal trauma of life in The Impossible and The Master. I still don’t get the Moonrise Kingdom thing but hey you can’t get them all so I’ll just go maybe I just missed something that everyone else found.

    What is a little confusing is that when the SAG nominees were announced there was a lot “well the Oscars nominations might look very different”. SAG is the actors and actors nominate actors for the Acting awards for Oscar so I don’t see how there can be this big shake up come the time the Oscar Nominations are announced. Honestly I don’t see a lot of shakeup. Not this year. I think a lot of films have found their niche or rather what they have managed to eek out in a damn crowded year.

    The one thing to remember about the Golden Globes when it comes to the Musical Comedy nominations is that rarely do you find enough nominees to fill the Musical Comedy slots without grabbing at straws. This year they didn’t really have to grab to deep to find some good performances but I doubt you’re going to see Judi Dench or Emily Blunt show up in the Oscar Nominations. I’m not even sure now that Riva will find her way into the mix. It’s possible but I don’t see it now after the SAG and Golden Globe nominations. I’m not sure about Helen Mirren or Maggie Smith either. I think Naomi Watts is going to steal Mirren’s thunder a bit and that might open the door for the return of Riva.

    I think that Phoenix has the most uphill battle of all the actors because he’s not only bitten the hand that feeds him but he’s pretty damn near gnarled it around in his jaws a bit as well. It’s one thing to be George C Scott and stand by your principal against competing with each other it’s another to spit in the face of an industry that has made you a rich man.

    Oscar loves drama and there’s that quiet little story of three people from one film perhaps winning their third gold statue. Hollywood loves that type of stuff after all that’s what Hollywood dreams are made of. If Field wins her third Oscar they better have a doctor standing in the wings because you’ll have to carry her out and I’d pay good money to watch just that. There’s just something about Hollywood that loves to share that dream or be responsible for making that dream become a reality. I still remember the night Ingrid Bergman won her third Oscar for Orient or hearing Katherine Hepburn’s name when she won her fourth. How can you forget Meryl last year who actually won for a great performance in an gawd awful movie and you could see as someone else said that she was about to say something like she didn’t deserve it out of respect for her fellow nominees and then caught herself. She was right to basque in the glory. That’s why we watch it all. That’s why we follow it all. We all sit around and get too play in the dream a little. We all get to vicariously be a part of the excitement.

    It’s good see Gere noticed. It’s good to see Arkin noticed. I like that fact that Ben Affleck has become a damn good filmmaker and that Argo has done so well and is so good. Regrets. John Goodman is a regret because he was so good. Spader is another regret because I think his performance in Lincoln is as good as Jone’s. But there is only so many spots.

  82. Lincoln is not Schindler’s List.

  83. I have a feeling that “The Master” suddenly will become the front runner after Academy nomination morning. I don’t know, just a hunch.

  84. christiannnw

    While I’m disappointed by the exclusion of Emmanuelle Riva in these two major precursors (ditto Isabelle Huppert from the same film.. sigh), I must say the unpredictably in some of these acting categories is really exciting to watch. Personally, I loved “The Deep Blue Sea”, and it’s my favorite film of the year, with “Lincoln” being a close second. Seeing Rachel Weisz earn a Golden Globe nod was a pleasure considering how unlikely any awards traction seemed, even just a week ago following her NYFCC win. Now an oscar nomination seems entirely in her ballpark.

    I’m still clinging onto the possibility of John Hawkes winning for his surprisingly light and self-deprecating depiction of physical disability in “The Sessions”. As good as I thought Daniel Day-Lewis’s unassuming strength, quiet dignity, and eventual wearied soul were in “Lincoln”, part of me doesn’t want to see him win a third oscar so soon after his second. If he wins, I wouldn’t dare complain since his work justifies it. But a win for John Hawkes would feel more meaningful in the long term.

    And I’m encouraged by the directing omissions of Tom Hooper and David O’Russell. Granted, I haven’t seen “Les Miserables”, but booting out a contender that screams GIVE ME OSCARS! makes room for films that take creative risks, like “Zero Dark Thirty” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild”. And “The Silver Linings Playbook” fell flat for me; not only did the characteristics of mental illness seem like they were reduced to the lowest common denominator for oscar nominations and box office grosses, but the last third of the film was a contrived, visually incoherent mess. Insults towards Islam employed as a device to set up a shift in character for a white protagonist was a red flag, but Jennifer Lawrence citing football stats as a means to alleviate conflict despite her character showing no inclinations towards such knowledge fired a nuclear missile loaded with “blegh” (she’s my favorite part of the film, but for the love of GOD nominate her in supporting actress).

    And Nicole Kidman. Proud to say I picked her as a NGNG prediction for the SAG, but I didn’t do a NGNG for the Globes. Still, I win (on the internet at least)!

  85. I’m actually appalled that the HFPA left out “Pitch Perfect” and Rebel Wilson’s performance.

  86. Here is how I see best pic as of today…

    1-Lincoln
    1A-Zero Dark Thirty
    2-Argo
    3-Django Unchained
    4-Silver Linings Playbook
    5-Les Miz
    6-Life of Pi

  87. Patrick—

    I never said that the reviews so far for LES MISERABLES were very good, I said that it is too early to gage them despite what points of comparison you have now established with the other films. Granted it will NOT match ARGO and ZERO and LINCOLN remotely, and as a musical it never had that chance from the start. This genre is always the victim of bashing from a segment who just don’t buy into that type of thing. You ask “Where are the good” in this love-hate equation? The answer is forthcoming in about 8 or 9 days, when you will see far more responses. As I stated, the RT grades are coming along at a better pace, and even if that membership is diluted it indicates that the concensus appears to be moving well into favorable territory.

    LES MISERABLES will end up with a respectable concensus. Great? No. But certainly in my view good enough that the reviews won’t be a hinderance for a Best Picture nomination. We are taking things one thing at a time. If it gets that nomination, then comes the second step. It’s clear enough though that at this point LINCOLN (a film I do love quite a bit) is the front-runner.

  88. “The Globes announcement was the last of the last big ones”……..hmmmm….BAFTA any one???.

  89. Surprised people think Nicole Kidman will get in. I still find it unlikely. Ann Dowd is worthy, and if anyone goes back and grabs the unlikely but deserving indie spirit actors, it’s the Academy. But they’ll probably frown on The Paperboy and figure Kidman, a former winner, doesn’t need the recognition now. Same reason why De Niro may be done for the season. Still, this must be Kidman’s first critically reviled film to get her this much awards recognition. One thing about Kidman: she dives in head-first and isn’t afraid to come out the other end completely scathed. If, say, Amy Adams is too dry and subtle for the Academy (though that’s never hurt her before), watch out.

    This year feels a bit like 2000, when you had several strong contenders in Gladiator, Traffic, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Of course, Gladiator had it all, with strong production values, powerful performances, and an endearing rise-from-the-ashes story. But there was something for everyone. The following year was also like that with five very different Best Picture nominees, each filling a void.

  90. filmboymichael

    If Les Miz’ reviews continue to tank I don’t even know if Hathaway is safe.

    i love me hathaway, but i would be thrilled to see field win a third!

  91. Bball_Jake

    Les Miserables could get a nomination with a 40 percent on RT! Its that BIG oscar movie, and there’s no stopping it. I still dont see anything except Lincoln beating it. And I really don’t mind if it wins. I also think Life of Pi is overrated, yes its a pretty good film, but I can name about three or four that aren’t considered Oscar Bp nominees that are arguably better, those include The Dark Knight Rises(which I still think has a chance in the bp race), Prometheus, Compliance, and Ruby Sparks. But I know its a lock so I wont even try to downgrade it.Its obvious that these 8 are getting nominated:
    Argo
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Life of Pi

    If there’s a 9th Spot: The Dark Knight Rises
    If theres a EL&IC spot(an Academy favorite they just can’t pass up on):The Hobbit:An Unexpected Journey

    And Ive almost lost hope in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom, they just don’t seem strong enough.

  92. Sorry if posted, but Peter Travers’ review of Django is quite good. 88/100 on Metacritic/3.5 stars out of 4 stars on his scale.

    ‘Wake up, people. Tarantino lives to cross the line. Is Django Unchained too much? Damn straight. It wouldn’t be Tarantino otherwise.’

    http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/reviews/django-unchained-20121213

  93. Sasha always says that each awards show is a dry run for the Oscars. With the acting nominees, each year is different. Some years the BFCA nails it, other years the BAFTAs are telltale, and sometimes the Academy sticks very closely to the SAG nominees. Usually the Globes are the least reliable, particularly in the supporting categories where they can only nominate 5 and ignore indies. But this year, who knows? There was some outcry over Leo’s BFCA and SAG snubs and then redemption when Django rose from the ashes today. Javier Bardem and Robert De Niro got SAG nominations for their lesser work, and maybe the Academy will agree with HFPA and keep them out. The Master’s SAG snubs should rally Academy voters who are passionate about the film’s performances. And at least if you’re a fan of Dowd, Riva, or Wallis, you know to rank her #1 if you want her to secure a nomination.

    With Dowd, being an unknown in an indie hurt her this week. With Wallis and Riva, certainly they were hurt by their age, lack of fame, and being in little-seen movies, Riva’s being foreign-language. But for Riva and Wallis, the nature of their roles is what’s really holding them back. Keisha Castle-Hughes did get a SAG nomination (in supporting), and even Fernanda Montenegro got a Globe nod.

  94. The BAFTAs and the Guilds nominations will tell you more about the Oscar nominations than the Golden Globes.

  95. Erik Dias

    Sad that there has been no love at all for Jackie Weaver…

  96. filmboymichael

    as much as i love jacki weavi and hope that she has a great role in Stoker – her role in SLP was such background….I loved every scene she was in but it was such a thankless role.

  97. The Great Dane

    Wouldn’t it be crazy if the Master turned out to be this year’s Tree of Life? A “thinking man’s film” ignored by SAG, the guilds and the Globes – then getting both Director and Picture at the Oscars?

    Though I can’t see anyone in Best Director out of the 7 frontrunners. Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck are locks. The last two are a toss-up between Hooper, Russell, Lee and Tarantino – it all depends on the critical and public popularity of Django and Les Miz as they’re finally released.

    Haneke is out. And just can’t see Anderson making it in a race this tight and strong.

  98. SeattleMoviegoer

    i’m finding a lot of the reviews of LES MISERABLES to be very entertaining. several–like EW, Huffington Post, film.com–are way out there in terms of acidic hatred and an almost manic desire to tear the damn thing apart. i haven’t read reviews like this in years. it’s almost as though some of these critics are pissed as hell that something could be so universally loved by audiences. it’s like they want to set the fans straight about how stupid they are. on the other end of the spectrum are those reviews calling it a “triumph” and “masterpiece.” this makes me all the more excited to see it. when critics are on opposite ends of the spectrum, it builds anticipation inside of me. often when movies get uniformly great reviews, i can be disappointed because the film, tho excellent, holds one at a distance. LES MIZ could be something that i rarely get nowadays…a movie i can really love.

  99. Christophe

    @SeattleMoviegoer
    exactly my thoughts, it’s pretty clear that there’s some irrational hate behind these scathing reviews, we see the same thing at play here on AD where many commenters have joined the anything-but-les-mis train and are already calling the film a failure even though it hasn’t been released yet and they haven’t seen it either.
    The funniest part though is how some people praise the master, django, argo or zd30 for being nominated at either bfca, sag or gg, but when les mis musters a stronger overall and more constant showing at these three events, they say it’s not enough and it will be forgotten come oscar time, not very logical.

  100. Christophe

    For what it’s worth let’s add up the noms received this week at bfca, sag and gg by the main contenders:

    Lincoln 24
    Les Misérables 19
    Silver Linings Playbook 18
    Argo 14
    Life of Pi 12
    Zero Dark Thirty 10
    The Master 10
    Django Unchained 7
    Moonrise Kingdom 6

  101. Pierre de Plume

    Lincoln is not Schindler’s List.

    Of course not — but that factor alone doesn’t have anything, really, to do with Lincoln’s chances of winning. For what it’s worth, let’s take a look at directors who’ve helmed more than one Oscar-winning film, with the more recent best-picture winner listed first:

    Clint Eastwood: Million Dollar Baby / Unforgiven
    Milos Forman: Amadeus / One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
    Robert Wise: The Sound of Music / West Side Story
    David Lean: Lawrence of Arabia / The Bridge on the River Kwai
    Billy Wilder: The Apartment / The Lost Weekend
    Elia Kazan: On the Waterfront / Gentlemen’s Agreement
    William Wyler: Ben-Hur / The Best Years of Our Lives
    Vincente Minnelli: Gigi / An American in Paris
    Fred Zinnemann: From Here to Eternity / High Noon
    Frank Capra: You Can’t Take It With You / It Happened One Night
    Frank Lloyd: Mutiny on the Bounty / Cavalcade

    So — is Million Dollar Baby better than Unforgiven? Amadeus better than Cuckoo’s Nest? Sound of Music better than West Side Story? Ben-Hur better than Best Years of Our Lives? You Can’t Take It With You better than It Happened One Night?

    Of the eleven examples listed, I’d say 6 of them represent best-picture wins for follow-up efforts that are weaker than the first. So even if one concedes that Lincoln is less strong a film than Schindler’s List, it still has better than even odds of winning the Oscar on this criteria alone.

    This is the sort of thing one does at 3:30 in the morning.

  102. What Pierre de Plume said.

  103. Lincoln, Herbert from Family Guy sent a telegram – he wants his voice back.

  104. “The BAFTAs and the Guilds nominations will tell you more about the Oscar nominations than the Golden Globes.”

    I completely agree with DaveyLow here.

    And great job there Pierre. At three in the morning no less!!!! Ha!

    Seattle Moviegoer’s last comment deserves to be framed!!! Bravo!!

    Bball Jake: I am going to make a prediction. LES MISERABLES will end up with around 80% on RT (with luck a bit higher) and mid 60’s on MC. Those numbers are quite respectable for any film and no hinderance at all for Oscar conquests.

  105. Pierre de Plume

    Thanks, mecid and Sam. I’m simply trying to dispel the notion that Spielberg has to “top” Schindler in order to nab best picture. However, Bigelow can give him some serious heat in the director category though the back story/narrative of Lincoln is so closely entwined with its direction that I think Spielberg has the edge. To be sure, it’s best to wait and see ZDT.

  106. I think Les Miserable sis staying in the 70s, but I think it only desrerves to be mid 60s. My opinion and I am a fan of the show…so, I’m not a musical hater. Just, don’t really hate or love what he did with it. The music makes me cry…the story, not the film.

    Also…I LOVE Alan Arkin…but, seriously? An Oscar nom for his usual self in Argo? He’s probably even shocked. He did nothing new or particularly difficult with the role…he’s just so endearing we love his presence.

    There are SO many great performances from supporting males this year, it’s just ridiculous. No one likes Anna Karinina…fine, I thought it was interesting….BUT the supporting cast was amazing. Domhnall Gleeson should be getting the nomination that Arkin will get. Also, the Swedish actress who played Kitty…wonderful! What is wrong with the awards is that no one really tries to find the Best performances. It’s a bunch of lazy, swag loving, ass kissed critics who get the ball rolling.

  107. Tero Heikkinen

    I wanted to have a little fun with Lincoln cause if that happens to win a lot, there are many familiar faces winning. These from the 13 categories it could be noted in:

    Best Picture
    -Steven Spielberg (8th nom in Picture, 2nd win)
    -Kathleen Kennedy (8th nom, 1st win)

    Best Director
    -Steven Spielberg (7th nom in Directing, 3rd win)

    Best Actor
    -Daniel Day-Lewis (5th nom, 3rd win)

    Best Supporting Actor
    -Tommy Lee Jones (4th nom, 2nd win)

    Best Supporting Actress
    -Sally Field (3rd nom, 3rd win)

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    -Tony Kushner (2nd nom, 1st win)

    Best Film Editing
    -Michael Kahn (8th nom, 4th win)

    Best Cinematography
    -Janusz Kaminski (6th nom, 3rd win)

    Best Original Score
    -John Williams (48th nom, 6th win)

    Best Costume Design
    -Joanna Johnston (1st nom, 1st win), FAMILIAR NAME, BUT FIRST TIME-NOMINEE

    Best Production Design (nominees to be determined with ONE known nominee)
    -Rick Carter (4th nom, 2nd win)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling (nominees to be determined)

    Best Sound Mixing (nominees to be determined)

    So, Spielberg personally is about the get his 15th overall nomination (this is pretty much a certainty) and if he won two more now, his total wins would be at 5. It’s the kind of number the King of Hollywood should have.

    In short, the talent behind Lincoln are “Academy favourites”.

  108. Rodrigo JP

    I still think the Academy will go for The Master.

    BP :

    -Lincoln
    -ZD30
    -Django Unchained
    -Argo
    -Les Misérables
    -Beasts of the southern wild
    -The Best Exotic Hotel Marigold
    -Silver Linings Playbook
    -Life Of Pi
    -Moonrise Kingdom

  109. Tero Heikkinen

    ^but you don’t have The Master in your Top 10.

  110. Tero Heikkinen

    Hmm…

    I kind of have to support Lincoln to the end even if I found ZDT or any other candidate better. It’s different with online medias when you can change your predictions every other minute and no-one remembers your prediction from two weeks ago, but I do this ONCE, and what has been printed, has been printed. I only care about my name.

    http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o158/mew4fin/14122012766_zps257394c7.jpg

    Above link is a part of my 10th Anniversary in Oscar predictions. Have written tens and tens of pages about this subject over the years. The very first issue of this magazine came out in December 2003 and there I predicted ROTK to win (it was easy that year, haha). It’s gonna be fucked now.

  111. Tero Heikkinen

    Yes, there have been so much more. This photo I took a year ago and it’s still a fracture of my Oscar articles:

    http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o158/mew4fin/26022011071.jpg

    I’m Finland’s Oscar Messenger (the one Tom Hooper did not name, of course) :D

  112. I know I’m in the minority, but I really found “Lincoln” boring, coldy, and not an accessible film. I also thought Spielberg’s direction was disappointing. If DDL wasn’t involved and gave such a good performance, this movie would have tanked. I got really sick of seeing phony light shaded through windows in every goddamn scene. What was this? ET: Part II? It infuriated me. And the movie really was more about the passage of the amendment than Lincoln himself (although he had a lot of opposition). The Congressional voting scene just went on and on and on.

    Just bad directing, I think.

    Case in point: at least Joe Wright infused “Anna Karenina” with some brilliant directorial touches. It was thrilling to watch, a different approach to epic film-making with stylistic touches throughout.

    I also thought the first five minutes of “Skyfall” had better directing than all of “Lincoln” put together.

    Just my opinion. I think history will prove that it is a film that will be barely watchable in repeated viewings (if at all).

  113. Tero Heikkinen

    “I also thought the first five minutes of “Skyfall” had better directing than all of “Lincoln” put together.”

    You gave me a reason. I’m officially allowed to say FUCK YOU, KEIFER.

    This came from your stupidity.

    And you better leave soon with all your Spielberg-hatred. IMDb is for your kind.

  114. And fuck you tero heikkinen crazy. Lincoln is so boring.

  115. Tero Heikkinen

    I don’t know about Lincoln being boring or not. I have not seen it :)

  116. steandric

    Reese Witherspoon’s fan letter to Naomi Watts for ‘The Impossible’

    Hi Naomi,

    I know we don’t know each other well. I hope it’s ok that I am reaching out to you, because I simply could not contain my enthusiasm about your performance in The Impossible.

    Wow. Just wow. I was blown away by the film. The story of survival and the incredible images of the tsunami and the performances of the entire cast were astounding. By far, one of the best films I have ever seen in my life.

    I could not speak for 24 hours after seeing the film. It was more than a movie. It was a mediation on life and family and humanity. It was fortifying.

    But the life-breath of the film is you.

    Your brutal physical performance, the ferocity of your mothering spirit and the soul touching moments where you hold on to life with every part of your being were incredible.

    Not since I saw Meryl Streep’s performance in Sophie’s Choice have I been so moved by an actress’s performance. It also reminded me of Sally Field’s Norma Rae as well. Such strength and absolute vulnerability in the same performance. A mother who is determined to teach her child what it means to be a good person even when facing her own mortality. You showed every side of Maria’s story.

    If I have anything to do with it (and I will literally tap dance on Sunset Boulevard for you!), you will be holding every beautiful statue that exists by the end of February.

    But more importantly, you have created a performance that will stand the test of time.

    Congratulations. And thank you sharing your heart and soul so openly.

    With respect,

    Reese

    http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/12/18/consider-this-reese-witherspoons-fan-letter-to-naomi-watts-for-the-impossible/

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