Zero Dark Thirty Takes Early Lead in Oscar’s Race for Best Picture

Buzz is a funny thing. Just because Oscar pundits think they know the buzz before the buzz starts, there’s no mistaking it once it gets here. Right now, the movie that has all of the buzz is Zero Dark Thirty, right behind it is Lincoln. Both films won three awards at the New York Film critics today. Steven Spielberg has never won the New York Film Critics award, not for Schindler’s List, not for Saving Private Ryan and not for Lincoln. However, there was a record broken today — no Spielberg film until now has ever won more than a single NYFCC acting award (Ralph Fiennes for Schindler’s), nor screenplay. Schindler’s List won three categories — Picture, Supporting Actor and Cinematography. Saving Private Ryan won a single award for Picture. So, even without winning Picture and Director, Lincoln’s wins at the New York Film Critics are something to pay attention to.

Lincoln and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Without the white noise at play, I would say the race feels like its down to those two right now. When two strong movies duke it out for the big win, either the awards at the Oscars end up splitting up, or a third movie swoops in and steals their thunder. We don’t know what will happen yet but right now we have to go with what we know today.

A little bit later, we will post our National Board of Review preview and put back up our contest. But for now, let’s look at a couple of things. First, how often do Picture and Director winners at the NYFCC go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars? Here is a handy chart. While it hasn’t happened SO MUCH in history, it’s happened more recently than it used to, which would bode well for Bigelow.

The Chart – New York Film Critics

NYFCC Director, NYFCC Picture | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture
+won Oscar Director

2012 Kathryn Bigelow Zero Dark Thirty
2011 Michel Hazanavicius+ The Artist+ The Artist
2010 David Fincher The Social Network* The King’s Speech
2009 Kathryn Bigelow+ The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Mike Leigh, HGL Milk* Slumdog Millionaire
2007 Joel and Ethan Coen+ No Country for Old Men+ No Country
2006 Martin Scorsese+ United 93  The Departed
2005 Ang Lee+ Brokeback Mountain* Crash
2004 Clint Eastwood+ Sideways* Million Dollar Baby
2003 Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Return of the King Return of the King
2002 Todd Haynes Far From Heaven Chicago
2001 Robert Altman, Gosford Park Mulholland Drive A Beautiful Mind
2000 Steven Soderbergh, Traffic+ Traffic* Gladiator
1999 Mike Leigh Topsy-Turvy American Beauty
1998 Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line Saving Private Ryan* Shakespeare in Love
1997 Curtis Hanson L.A. Confidential* Titanic
1996 Lars Von Trier, Breaking the Waves Fargo* The English Patient
1995 Ang Lee, Sense and Sensibility Leaving Las Vegas Braveheart
1994 Quentin Tarantino Quiz Show* Forrest Gump
1993 Jane Campion, The Piano Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List
1992 Robert Altman The Player Unforgiven
1991 Jonathan Demme The Silence of the Lambs+ Silence of the Lambs
1990 Martin Scorsese Goodfellas* Dances With Wolves
1989 Paul Mazursky (Enemies A Love Story My Left Foot* Driving Miss Daisy
1988 Chris Menges (A World Apart) The Accidental Tourist* Rain Man
1987 James L. Brooks (Broadcast News) Broadcast News* The Last Emperor
1986 Woody Allen Hannah and Her Sisters* Platoon
1985 John Huston Prizzi’s Honor* Out of Africa
1984 David Lean Passage to India* Amadeus
1983 Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment
1982 Sydney Pollack, Tootsie Gandhi Gandhi
1981 Sydney Lumet, Prince of the City Reds* Chariots of Fire
1980 Jonathan Demme, Melvin and Howard Ordinary People+ Ordinary People
1979 Woody Allen, Manhattan Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer
1978 Terrence Malick, Days of Heaven The Deer Hunter+ The Deer Hunter
1977 Woody Allen+ Annie Hall+ Annie Hall
1976 Alan J. Pakula All the President’s Men* Rocky
1975 Robert Altman Nashville* One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest
1974 Federico Fellini Armacord Godfather II
1973 Francois Truffaut Day for Night The Sting
1972 Ingmar Bergman Cries and Whispers The Godfather
1971 Stanley Kubrick A Clockwork Orange* The French Connection
1970 Bob Rafelson Five Easy Pieces* Patton
1969 Costa-Gavras Z* Midnight Cowboy
1968 Paul Newman, Rachel Rachel Lion in Winter* Oliver
1967 Mike Nichols, Graduate+ In the Heat of the Night+ In the Heat of the Night
1966 Fred Zinnemann+ A Man for All Seasons* A Man for all Seasons
1965 John Schlesinger Darling* the Sound of Music
1964 Stanley Kubrick, Dr. Strangelove My Fair Lady+ My Fair Lady
1963 Tony Richardson+ Tom Jones+ Tom Jones
1962 none Lawrence of Arabia
1961 Robert Rossen, The Hustler West Side Story+ West Side Story
1960 Jack Cardiff, Sons and Lovers, Billy Wilder, The Apartment+ The Apartment+ Billy Wilder, The Apartment
1959 Fred Zinnemann, The Nun’s Story Ben Hur+ Ben Hur
1958 Stanley Kramer The Defiant Ones* Gigi
1957 David Lean+ Bridge on the River Kwai+ Bridge on the River Kwai
1956 John Huston, Moby Dick Around the World in 80 Days+ Around/World in 80 Days
1955 David Lean, Summertime Marty+ Delbert Mann, Marty
1954 Elia Kazan+ On the Waterfront+ On the Waterfront
1953 Fred Zinnemann+ From Here to Eternity+ From Here to Eternity
1952 red Zinnemann High Noon* The Greatest Show on Earth
1951 Elia Kazan Streetcar Named Desire* An American in Paris
1950 Joseph L. Mankiewicz+ All About Eve+ All About Eve
1949 Carol Reed, The Fallen Idol All the King’s Men All the King’s Men
1948 John Huston+ Treasure of the Sierra Madre* Hamlet
1947 Elia Kazan+ Gentleman’s Agreement Gentleman’s Agreement
1946 William Wyler+ The Best Years of Our Lives The Best years of Our Lives
1945 Billy Wilder+ The Lost Weekend The Lost Weekend
1944 Leo McCarey+ Going My Way Going My Way
1943 George Stevens, the More the Merrier Watch on the Rhine* Casablanca
1942 John Farrow, Wake Island In Which we Serve Mrs. Miniver
1941 John Ford, How Green was my Valley+ Citizen Kane* How Green was my Valley
1940 John Ford, Grapes of Wrath+, Long Voyage Home The Grapes of Wrath* Rebecca
1939 John Ford, Stagecoach Wuthering Heights* Gone with the Wind
1938 Alfred Hitchcock, Lady Vanishes The Citadel* You Can’t Take it With You
1937 Gregory La Cava, Tagedoor The Life of Emile Zola* The Life of Emile Zola
1936 Rouben Mamoulian, Gay Desperado Mr. Deeds Goes to Town* The Great Ziefeld
1935 John Ford+ The Informer* Mutiny on the Bounty

What the previous winners, who won Picture and Director at the NYFCC and then went on to do the same at the Oscars, have in common is that they won virtually EVERYTHING (neither The Artist nor The Hurt Locker won the National Board of Review, it’s worth noting). No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker and The Artist WON EVERYTHING leading up to the Oscars. We will know this Sunday if Zero Dark Thirty is headed up that road if it wins, mainly, the Los Angeles Film Critics. If something else wins there, we have a real race on our hands. If Zero Dark Thirty wins, we have, possibly, a juggernaut that can’t be stopped.

Some other notes of interest:

Daniel Day-Lewis will likely continue his winning streak. He won, along with Tony Kushner and Sally Field.

Rachel Weisz, with the critical acclaim for her performance and her comely looks, she seems like a definite possibility to break into the Best Actress race.

Sally Field beating Anne Hathaway may be significant or it might not be; after all, the Academy is dominated by actors and they have different criteria for what makes a good performance.   Hathaway still seems like the winner to be beat, to me, unless voters hate Les Miserables. That she didn’t win today may be an early indicator that the critics didn’t really like the film all that much.

Both The Artist and The King’s Speech had early success at the NYFCC, so it’s possible Silver Linings Playbook will not be in the same spot as either of those two last year.

Next up, the National Board of Review and then on the weekend, the Los Angeles Film Critics.

 

New York Film Critics Awards, 3 apiece for Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln!

Next Story »

Field Barely Beat Hathaway, Weisz Barely Beat Lawrence

40 Comments

  1. William
    December 3, 2012

    Don’t you think it’s a little premature to call this a two-horse race between Zero Dark and Lincoln? If Les Mis shows strength, it’s going to be via the Globes and the guilds not necessarily the critics awards (e.g. Chicago). Is this the race as it is or the race as you want it to be? I still think it’s a two-horse race between Lincoln and Les Mis. Zero Dark Thirty is the edgier, cooler film, but Oscar only defaults to that when it doesn’t have the prestige option (eg No Country for Old Men or The Hurt Locker).

  2. Glenn UK
    December 3, 2012

    I still do not see the Academy giving a second Oscar to Bigelow – its just way to soon. Hooper too! I still think its a wide open year. The critics do not really influence these days …. the Guilds do and we are way off those just yet. Les Miz will split the critics so I doubt it will win much on the critics circuit. Argo should show in places as should Life of Pi. Its just too early for my liking to be saying its a two horse race.

  3. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    So even though a critic who was in the room (O’hehir) said Anne was “pretty darn close” to winning supporting actress, Les Mis is dead now? I know I was thinking this at first but Anne just barely losing doesn’t change the status quo for Les Mis. No one of any significance was picking it to win Best Picture today. No one.

  4. TOM
    December 3, 2012

    In regards to Lincoln: I found the film to be too long and soggy at parts. Screenplay? It might be historically accurate…but all that courtroom yakety-yak gave me the yawns. DDL does a credible job (a lot better than Henry Fonda), but (for me), his slowness was making me narcy. My eyes would drop, I’d wake up and think that I was in the Steven Spielberg production of Walt Disney’s Hall of Presidents. (Too many shots of the Lincoln’s wide-eyed, innocent son made the goo even thicker.)
    I haven’t seen LesMis – but, in my opinion, Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln, woke me out of my stupor. The movie needed more scenes/battles between Abraham and his wife. (Bet there was more screen time between Anthony Hopkins and Joan Allen in Nixon.) I wanted to learn more about her problems…not that I wanted a Sybil reinactment, but something was going on inside her cocoanut. When she went off on her husband about their son possibly enlisting…man, that was the real fire that made the movie crackle! I, basically, wanted their son to die in the Civil War just so that I could witness her going off and losing her marbles! But, it never came and all you got later was her waving to folks in the courtroom balcony.
    So, Congratulations on a half-written role.

  5. phantom
    December 3, 2012

    Apparently Hathaway was damn close and Weisz was the ‘lucky third’ after they couldn’t decide between Chastain and Lawrence. Hopefully they will release the 2nd/3rd places.

    Also, am I the only one expecting a surprisingly quiet start and then a BIG, splashy, agressive, very-last-minute Weinstein-push ‘theironlady-style’ ? He has a critically acclaimed crowdpleaser with franchise-all-star leads and an acting legend, a well-received one featuring beloved British veterans, a landmark film from one of the best American directors and a potential smash hit from Tarantino…long story short, I don’t think Harvey will just sit back and watch the Lincoln/ZD30/LesMiz trio take all the glory.

  6. December 3, 2012

    If Zero Dark Thirty does what The Hurt Locker did (and early reviews suggest it’s good enough to), winning all around it, it could easily win both top Oscars. I think it would prove a point – that Bigelow’s THL Oscar win wasn’t just because it was history-making, and that the industry does, actually, rly rly like her. That’s probably a point they wouldn’t mind making.

    I can’t see how 0D30 doesn’t become a major frontrunner from here. With such a strong showing at one of awards season’s most influential groups, against so much competition, this isn’t the kind of result that looks like a left-field shocker. I get a feeling that it’s going to keep winning, and that the box office will benefit from the buzz.

    And declaring 0D30 and Lincoln the frontrunners this early isn’t at all premature. Here’s what Sasha wrote:

    Without the white noise at play, I would say the race feels like its down to those two right now.

    right now

    That’s the important bit. Things could all change. But, right now, how can anybody argue otherwise? No other film has proved itself yet like those two have. This is where we stand today.

  7. December 3, 2012

    Oops. Typing too quickly = ITALICS ERRORS :O :O :O

  8. December 3, 2012

    “When two strong movies duke it out for the big win, either the awards at the Oscars end up splitting up, or a third movie swoops in and steals their thunder.”

    Watch out for DJANGO UNCHAINED, SILVER LININGS or THE HOBBIT to be that third movie. All three are crowd pleasers, each with a pedigree unique to itself. Django and Silver Linings have Harvey and overdue directors, and The Hobbit has the fact that no Rings movie got snubbed for a Best Pic nom. By the way, The Hobbit is incredible. I posted my review yesterday on my blog. It blew me away.

  9. Christophe
    December 3, 2012

    @LSUduck
    Why so much hate against Les Misérables? It was never going to be a critical fave anyway, not when they can go for Lincoln or ZD30, the former being the smart choice and the latter being the cool choice.

  10. TB
    December 3, 2012

    Sasha, don’t be a prisoner of the moment, your too smart for that. I bet you anything that 0d30 will not win the Oscar. I can be wrong but I have fallowed the oscars since I can remember and I just don’t see it winning. 09′ was a special year. It was not only a special film (THL) but it was also about history (woman) and a statement (no blue screens for actor, not ready for the future… Which I agree)

    But this year is different. She’s won before. With the same kind of movie ( I know it’s different but academy members don’t care) I really believed the guilds are the only ones that will give this race some direction. I still believe this is Lincoln’s to lose. It’s a once in a decade movie made from the master himself. Only backlash can stop it that is why it’s fine for other films to win the critics awards at this point. It will only help it come voting time. Trust me.

  11. Nic V
    December 3, 2012

    First of all I think that the quiet commentary about the critics not thrilled with Les Miz may very well have more truth to it than anyone supposes at this moment. Fact is that if they loved Les Miz they would have run with it and they didn’t. Zero and Les Mis along with the Hobbit and Django are all in the same boat. Pretty much unseen by the public and yet screened by the critics obviously to meet the end of the year critics awards so they can be cited during advertising for the general public. They ran with Zero so that tells me Les Miz isn’t going to resound well with at least the NY Critics.

    As for Les Miz doing well at the Globes well that’s kind of a given since it’s a Musical and will fall into the Musical genre awards. If it can win a bag full of globes at the Golden Globes then it’s got a bigger problem than the NY Film Critics. Taking that one step further the Golden Globes are not nearly as important as NYFCC, LAFC, or even the National Board of Review. I mean come on they nearly have to scrap the bottom of the barrell to fill the categories in the Musical/Comedy nominations. Of course that’s a little bit of an exaggeration but not much of one.

    I still don’t think that Zero is going to do all that well with audiences and I wonder if that will translate to Oscar. I think based on what we saw today it’ll get nominations but just as the public is kinda tired of the Middle East and all the bullshit there it kinda runs dry in the awards arena also. We saw that happen with all the post Viet Nam war films. I wonder what kind of backlash Zero will have on the extremists in Northern Africa and the Middle East. There may not be a reason for it but like it or not Bin Laden is a hero to them even though he’s a monster to us.

    Sorry I don’t think Hathaway is the one to beat. I think Supporting Actress is wide open now.

    I like the idea that NY stretched itself with Rachel Weisz and find it a little offensive that you had to do the “comely” thing which in a subtle way diminishes her performance and her worth as an actress. It’s almost like you’re implying that one of the reasons she won was that she was better looking than the other alternatives. If you want to chase that kind of reasoning one could say then Chastain should have won because she’s a New York actress starring on Broadway right now. Obviously the NY Critics weren’t in love with her performance.

    I do agree that right now Zero and Lincoln are the frontrunners. But I think as the critics weigh in little by little in the next few weeks that race may become like a hamster chasing itself in that little wheel in a cage.

    The most shocking win was Zero for cinematography. I would have thought with all I’ve seen of Life of Pi that they would have won that hands down and if not them then The Dark Knight Rises or Skyfall.

    I will never ever understand how you can win the Screenplay award and then loose Best Picture. That is one of the most befuddling things for me. I can see you winning best Screenplay and loosing acting awards and even the directors award but one would think that Screenplay and Best Picture should go hand in hand. Which tells me that the NYFCC were really torn between Lincoln and Zero.

    As for Daniel Day Lewis being boring in Lincoln? He is anything but boring in Lincoln. That performance is so theateresque that it’s amazing to find it on film. In time Lewis’ portrayal of Lincoln will be held up as one of the best performances on celluloid.

    I have to also wonder about why Speilberg has yet to win a NYFCC award. Something just doesn’t sit right with that one considering the body of his work. That leaves you scratching your head a little.

  12. ZDarkJess
    December 3, 2012

    I hate it when film critics and bloggers are saying this and that about a movie or giving this or that film an award for this or that that I haven’t had the chance to see because they haven’t released it to the general public. Its downright awful for these people to do this to us. As for “Lincoln”. I loved every minute of this film. I I have seen it twice already and think it is what many are saying it is .. A MASTERPIECE.

  13. Jack Traven II
    December 3, 2012

    By the time the Critics sat together last minute predictions had spread from millions of computers across the planet. Ordinary computers in offices, homes, everywhere. It was software in cyberspace. There was no system core. It could not be stopped. The announcements began at 7 a.m., just as said they would. Oscar Season. The season during which all that really matters seems to be made unimportant by the films that were made to entertain us. We should realize our destiny is not to take the Oscar Season too seriously. It is merely to enjoy it. Together. Maybe the foundation for the future Oscar winner was laid today. Who knows. All I know is: Never stop enjoying. And I never will. The battle for the Oscars has just begun.

  14. LSUduck
    December 3, 2012

    Christophe,

    Hate for Les Mis? I think you misunderstood my comment. I was just saying Les Mis was not expected to win at NYFCC besides Anne and she was damn close to doing so according to a couple critics in the room. I was just commenting that calling Les Mis out of this race is absurd. I panicked on the other post I know but that was before I knew Anne almost won. To be a close 2nd place finish isn’t so bad at all.

  15. PJ
    December 3, 2012

    Ah, finally two frontrunners with real tangible buzz!

  16. Jerry Grant
    December 3, 2012

    There’s no denying that “Zero Dark Thirty” is looking very strong, especially considering that everyone’s saying it is indeed better than “Hurt Locker”. But there may be a significant difference in the fates of “Hurt Locker” and “Zero Dark Thirty”: their respective competitions.

    “Hurt Locker” had to beat “Avatar” (Cameron). “Zero Dark Thirty” has to beat “Lincoln” (Spielberg) [and not considering "Les Miz"]. It seems to me that “Lincoln” and the Spielberg complex will be a tougher competition. “Lincoln” is a far better movie than “Avatar,” with broader appeal, and indeed “masterpiece” and “classic” accolades are already proclaimed for it. It will draw older voters, and it will draw actors. It will draw screenwriters. It is more inclusive, like the man himself, and makes room for many types in the little democracy that is “Lincoln” fandom.

    I think Sasha is perfectly right to say ZDT is the frontrunner at the moment. But at the end of the day, “Lincoln” will be a very tough competitor.

  17. Scott
    December 3, 2012

    I think Sally Field has a decent a shot at winning supporting actress over Anne Hathaway. Sally has worked with a lot of people in Hollywood and no doubt has many friends in the Academy and as we know, voters skew older which could play into her favour. She’s shown over the years how to forge forward through the bumpy older years of an actress by taking supporting film roles back in the nineties when that was a rarer event than it is today. Actors/Oscar voters may appreciate her career arc and to come back to Oscar gold in her sixties in what truly is a remarkable role would be a sweet feat.

  18. Scott (the other one)
    December 3, 2012

    Awards season starts again, and the pundits are madly staggering from favourite to favourite like some drunk looking to get laid at a party.

    Ten days ago, Argo was perceived by virtually all the pundits as the film to beat. Then Les Mis opens and they all jump over to that ship for about five days. Now, ONE critics award and it seems like they’re all moving over to 0D30 and Lincoln.

    Let’s stop getting so hysterical and announcing “prohibitive front runners” and “races that are over” QUITE yet.

    And I don’t think 99% of Oscar voters give a flying f*** about the New York Film Critics.

    I agree with others who have said that 0D30 is unlikely to win BP this year — it is too much of a piece with The Hurt Locker. Against a well made piece of entertainment like Argo, and a big historical biopic with a big message by Spielberg, and a crowd pleaser like Les Miz, I absolutely see no chance of 0D30 winning. But I admit this is all speculation as, obviously, I have not seen 0D30 or Les Miz yet.

  19. Sasha Stone
    December 3, 2012

    Sasha, don’t be a prisoner of the moment, your too smart for that.

    So many of you either haven’t been following this site for very long or really DO think I’m that dumb.

  20. Sasha Stone
    December 3, 2012

    Don’t you think it’s a little premature to call this a two-horse race between Zero Dark and Lincoln?

    What part of “the way it feels to me right now” wasn’t clear enough?

  21. Yvette
    December 3, 2012

    Scott (not “the other one”),
    I agree with your assessment of Field’s chances with the Academy. Many of these voters are her peers, have either worked with her, watched her career arc. I generally despise sentimental votes, but in this case I would be all for it. It would be a deserved win. She went toe to toe with Daniel Day Lewis, was not overpowered. It would be a “sweet feat” indeed if she won after all these years.
    I’m not so sure about ZD30 at the Oscars. I just don’t see the Academy awarding KB again so soon, or Hooper fot that matter. I mean: think about this way: if Hooper or KB win BD, they will have as many Oscars as Steven Spielberg.

  22. Terometer
    December 3, 2012

    Les Mis will surely be the frontrunner of GG Musical/Comedy, and Zero will edge out Lincoln in the GG drama category. After Globes, it’s so going to be a battle of Zero vs. Les Mis. Even the smart people in NY can’t bring themselves to vote for Lincoln, it’s a terrible sign.

  23. Akumax
    December 3, 2012

    I think that there are years, lucky years, when the silver screen is filled by a number of great films, diverse and challenging uplifting works that make cinema move forward. It seems to me that 2012 has been one of those years, especially in American Cinema. My take on the beginning of this awards season is simple: in a year like this a great cinematic achievement, which is also a “serious/ grown up / smart” film, which deals with History or history in its making and touches some of the key cords of a complex country like USA, has the best chance to be recognized among Academy members. I see Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln standing in that quite rare and fortunate spot, not Le Mis or other films.

  24. Maxim
    December 3, 2012

    Sasha, I guess according to NYFCC Spielberg’s films direct themselves. Him winning best picture twice is a big enough deal in itself.

    STILL, you could have mentioned that Spielberg was the runner-up for Best Director three times.

  25. Denni
    December 3, 2012

    They’re not giving Field her third Oscar for supporting! Not if Meryl Streep’s Third Oscar came after 20 years with consistent nominations every other year!

  26. December 3, 2012

    I was just worried that Les Mis would win and then the “buzz” would be that it was all over. Phew!

  27. BedBath&Beyonce
    December 3, 2012

    Just watched Zero Dark Thirty and it is a contender for many many awards. I really hope Bigelow snags the Directing Oscar, extremely well paced for a close to 3 hour film. The sound design was incredible.

  28. Michael
    December 4, 2012

    I have a feeling Sasha will switch choice for the second time, after going from Argo to Lincoln and now from Lincoln to Zero Dark Thirty. Fence-sitting is her trait you see.

  29. Glenn UK
    December 4, 2012

    Do people really think that when the Academy are voting for Best Supporting Actress that they will think “we can’t give Sally a third, look how long it took Meryl to get her third”! Really if you believe that then there is no hope. Plenty of Meryl’s nominations were for beyond average roles in years when women’s characters were not strong, hence she got in. We are in for one hell of a long and rocky ride!

  30. TOM
    December 4, 2012

    Regarding Bigelow’s chances of being honored a 2nd time – People may dismiss her 09 THLocker win as just winning to be ‘historical,’ (personally, most people probably wanted her to win just so her jerk ex-husband JCameron would lose for Avator and have to watch her get honored ;))) – But, in the Best Director potential category – most of her competitors already have been honored! Spielberg – 2 Best Director awards, Ang Lee has one, Tom Hooper has one…Ben Affleck (well, he shared an ‘original’ screenplay…Zemekis has one…that only leaves David O. Russell who has nothing. If the field narrows down to 5 ‘already honored’…people may slide toward Bigelow again.
    Zero Dark Thirty’s chances for Best Picture – Audiences probably aren’t going to embrace this film…nobody embraced THLocker which is the lowest Best Picture winner of all time (Didn’t it only make $11million total?)
    LesMis ‘sweeping the Globes…It will be lumped into the Musical/Comedy category against Silver Linings Playbook. I suspect ‘the push’ by you know who will sweep LesMis aside. (I’m almost feeling backlash toward Quarter & Django…I’m sure that both will be shoved down our throats like they’re cinematic masterpieces.)
    Spielberg winning for Director again – my only complaint about his direction is that he seemed to want to rewrite history and change Abraham Lincoln into a Democrat. I didn’t get the sense that he wanted to ‘glorify’ anything Republican…(this movie was pushed to after the election just so public curry wouldn’t shift from his guy.) But, I never got the sense that he saluted the Republican Party for it’s crusade against ending slavery…if he embraced that love, it would’ve been Spielberg (not Eastwood) speaking at the Republican convention.

  31. Pete
    December 4, 2012

    Jesus Christ, what is it about Conservatives that makes them act like every iota of culture is meant to be a statement or reflection of their political beliefs? Ever consider for a nanosecond that Spielberg wanted to make a Lincoln film for artistic reasons and not part of a plot to rewrite history or sway an election.

    God, you people are fucking lame

  32. rufussondheim
    December 4, 2012

    Poor Tom, if he ever left his Uncle’s Cabin he would realize that political parties evolve and that the descendants of these slaveowners are far more likely to be Republicans than Democrats. But I’m guessing he doesn’t believe in evolution.

  33. Vagelis
    December 4, 2012

    Hmm i await to see Zero Dark Thirty with interest to understand wether or not it will resonate in any way with audiences beyond the USA, or will be a film for internal consumption like the Hurt Locker was. Since it is thematically more interesting i do hope the director makes some sort of political commentary-stance, something that was completely absent from the Hurt Locker which made it for me nothing more than an action flick. Let us see.

  34. TOM
    December 4, 2012

    As a film in itself – my main problems with Lincoln were:
    - Lack of suspense…if I was supposed to be on the edge of my seat for the ‘final vote’ sequence for the 13th Amendment, I wasn’t. The whole ending to Argo was more riveting. (The will have get past the 3rd security guards and off the tarmac in time..) Lincoln’s voting sequence…I just wanted them to hurry it along.

    - Could’ve used more battle sequences – Though the opening tried to be SPRyan intense, there were more battleground action in WarHorse (and friendly animals.) Having the Civil War in the background, guess, I wanted more.

    - This movie would’ve been better served if it listed the acting credits at the beginning of the film. I became too distracted by the numerous actors that I had to decipher from their (historically accurate, but God-awful) hairpieces, mustaches, sideburns, toupees, goatees and chest hairs. (If they awarded Razzies for Worst Hairdos…) I’d try to be evolved in the movie, but my track of thought would be ‘Is that soldier Lukas Haas? He’s reduced to 2 lines?’ Oh, Hal Holbrook…That must be Tommy Lee Jones under the George Washington wig…the man from Little Children…wait…that is the man from The Sessions….where did I see that little kid before….where oh where oh where…..it wasn’t ’til I got home and looked it up did I realize that it was the kid from Dark Shadows…Finally…is David Crosby in this movie? He did complete a pirate cameo in Hook. What is he doing in this movie? Oh, wait…that jumbo is James Spader!

    -DDL- Of course he did a masterful job. Though Ab changed the course of history…guess I need someone with a more dynamic personality. I kept wanting more There Will Be Blood or Bill the Butcher(Gangs of NY) to get Ab’s wrath. He needed a speech coming from his heart & soul on why he needed slavery to end.

    - Lastly, could’ve used more Ab & Mary interaction. She seems to be a more interesting character, deserving of her own movie (with Ab supporting). Wasn’t there a Movie of the Week with MTMoore?

  35. eveyn garver
    December 4, 2012

    Let’s get this right. Tom’s problem with LINCOLN was his inability to recognize numerous character actors. What on earth does that have to do with the quality of the film? If they were not recognizable immediately, weren’t they doing their jobs? Also, whatever happened to the suspension of disbelief? I thought we went to films to see people become other people and share in that story.

  36. Lenny
    December 4, 2012

    Very easy to say the race could be between Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln after one critics’ group gives both films 3 awards a piece.

    Let’s see how the rest of the week plays out before we start speculating.

  37. mecid
    December 4, 2012

    Wait for director’s cut, Tom. Your points are nowhere conneccted with film’s qality. Stevens wore wig. People had beard. This is 1800s.

  38. Jerry Grant
    December 4, 2012

    Sasha is not just jumping to quick conclusions. Of course, she is saying “the way it feels to me right now.” But also, this is not just based on a single critics’ awards group. It is also based on the sheer quality of two films–”Zero Dark Thirty” and “Lincoln.” To be a very good and insightful prognosticator, you have to be able to not just amalgamate scores, but also see a movie and say, “This will be big, this will not go away.” Both of these movies have this strength.

  39. Mark F.
    December 4, 2012

    “Argo” still looks like the winner to me, but it will have strong competition.

  40. RJ
    December 5, 2012

    To echo what someone said above, I’ll be surprised if the Academy gives Bigelow a second Best Director so soon, and very surprised if they do the same for Hooper. Perhaps this might end up being a split year, with 0h30 or Les Mis winning Picture but Spielberg winning Director. Who knows.

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