THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES”
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
ARGO
PRIMETIME TELEVISION
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
JULIANNE MOORE / Sarah Palin – “GAME CHANGE”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK”
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
DOWNTON ABBEY
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
MODERN FAMILY
SAG AWARDS HONORS FOR STUNT ENSEMBLES
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
SKYFALL
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
GAME OF THRONES
LIFE ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
Screen Actors Guild 49th Annual Life Achievement Award
DICK VAN DYKE
I don’t want JLaw to win even though her performance was outstanding. She is too young to win. I believe Chastain or Riva might win the Oscar because their performances were more stronger. I rather JLaw have a similar career as Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Kate Winslet rather than Halle Berry, Sandra Bullock and Gwyneth Paltrow. I’m a JLaw fan.
I’m a JLaw fan but I don’t want her to win an Oscar this year, her performance was outstanding but Jessica’s and Emmanuelle’s performance was more stronger. I rather have JLaw have a similar career path as Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams or Kate Winslet(a lot of nomination) than Gwyneth Paltrow and Sandra Bullock (one win and never again nominated.) She is too young to win an Oscar.
I do hope Chastain or Riva wins the Bafta. JLaw is a excellent actress.
SNL was atrocious but not all can be placed on JLaw – the writing was terrible. That show should have gone away years ago…
Speaking of range, not saying this is a true measure of it, but JLaw! was God-awful in SNL. She really lacked the skills and comedic timing to sell any of the jokes.
My problem with JLaw is that she often looks dead behind the eyes. Eyes are a selling point for any film actor, she’s usually so vacant and has to rely of blinking multiple of times or pouting her face to convey emotion when she’s not screaming something “I volunteer!” or crying.
The only time I felt something real about a performance of hers was in Winter’s Bone’s climax when she had to hold on to her father’s hands in the water. Now, that’s the JLaw I enjoyed.
Helen
“So you see, don’t say Lawrence doesn’t have range.”
That will be easy considering I never said that. I said :
“I don’t doubt for a second that she is a “phenomenal actress” with a long and bright future ahead of her and that still doesn’t mean I automatically have to consider her the best and most worthy Best Actress contender this year.
(…) as talented as Lawrence is, her range and skill set doesn’t even come close to Chastain’s. Not for now at least.
(…) I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance…only they are doing it in the wrong category.”
Just because I consider Jessica Chastain the more accomplished actress doesn’t mean I don’t have great respect for Jennifer Lawrence.
Mel
It was such a great experience being at the SAG awards yesterday and it made me think about all of the yet to be recognized actors out there who do the work while they think no one is watching. We are a community, a family – and I’m watching. I root for you. xxjes
Would that be Jessica Chastain???
She’s such a class act… = )
@phantom
“Jessica Chastain’s, a tough, unlikable, no-nonsense, emotionally crippled female who has to convey emotions with silence and only a look or a muscle in her face…”
That sounds a lot like Jennifer’s performance in THG. Carrying the film with just subtle emotion in her face reflecting the character’s thoughts.
…
So you see, don’t say Lawrence doesn’t have range.
claire danes rly???
Jessica Lange should have won!
rufussondheim said: Very nice performance by whomever that woman is. It just shows there is a lot of talent out there that never gets recognized. But then we all knew that anyway.
It is true. Guess who acknowledged that on her Facebook page today? Where she also happens to answer everyone who posts there? Clue: It was not Jennifer Lawrence.
It was such a great experience being at the SAG awards yesterday and it made me think about all of the yet to be recognized actors out there who do the work while they think no one is watching. We are a community, a family – and I’m watching. I root for you. xxjes
The meltdown on here if/when Lawrence wins the Oscar is going to be a sight to behold. Anyone who thinks a Riva win would spike ticket sales for Amour is not thinking clearly. It will be as much a what the eff decision and a backlash at the ticket window as some of Oscar’s other howlers over the years. It would be reverse ageism at its most venal if they go the career achievement route and give it to Riva.
Winston
“You also contributed the claim that Lawrence being under the weather was some devious stratgem. No offense but LOL.”
Problem with that is, that I might not have any proof that the pneumonia-story was a publicity stunt, but you don’t have any that it wasn’t, although few would argue that her appearance yesterday was anything but sickly and especially not pneumonia-sickly. That’s probably why I didn’t try to sell my take as a fact and quickly said : “Again, I can’t blame her or anyone else for ‘playing the game’ and campaigning HARD for an Oscar, I’m just saying this was my impression. Whether it was the truth or not, now that we’ll never know.” For the record, I HAD my first ever pneumonia very recently, I was coughing my tonsils out, I lost my voice and was weak like a bird. Lawrence didn’t cough, had her voice and looked rather energetic on stage. My guess is she had a running nose the day before and Harvey decided to exaggarate a little for dramatic effect, and that’s not a conspiracy theory, just an educated guess considering Weinstein LOVES those little stunts, his most recent ones involved a dog called Uggie and a Cinderella-moment for Meryl Streep co-starring Colin Firth.
By the way, I didn’t reference Jennifer Lawrence as ‘the uberlikable hottie in THE crowdpleaser’, I referenced her CHARACTER which is the type of character that tends to win Oscars…ask Helen Hunt, Gwyneth Paltrow Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, Sandra Bullock!
Let’s just agree to disagree on this one but for future reference, don’t take my words out of context especially when you leave off my whole point stated in the same sentence you quote : “I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance…only they are doing it in the wrong category.“
Yeah, that video had 53 views when I caught it. I bet it has a million by the end of the week.
Very nice performance by whomever that woman is. It just shows there is a lot of talent out there that never gets recognized. But then we all knew that anyway.
@Phantom-We disagree over the roles, the quality of the performances, which actor showed “nuance.” Now my initial point seemed harmless enough. I claimed that I believed Lawrence had the best performance, but that whether anyone agreed or not, the conspiracy theories were nonsense. You responded with a post that Lawrence’s role was not so tough, that all her rivals were better, etc. You also contributed the claim that Lawrence being under the weather was some devious stratgem. No offense but LOL.
My response was that I disagreed. In reply to that, you offer a post again insisting that your favorite had the tougher role and the better performance and adding terms like “uberlikable hottie”.
Sorry, but between conspiracies about faking illnsses and claims that Lawrence garner’s votes because she is attractive and not on the merits (who knew Chastain was so ugly?), it seems like you were the one that kept insisting that there is no bona fide competition and that no one can reasonably disagree with you. As I pointed out, SAG did. The AACTA did whether you care or not. And the critics groups were split despite ZDT being the critic’s darling in the run up to the Oscars. Even the Critic’s Choice was a wash as they would not give Lawrence all three critics awards. And the GG involved no direct competiton.
Point is I clearly stated that I was expressing my opinion, that people were free to disagree, but that the conspiracy theores were nonsense. Forgive me if between claims of fake illneses and Weinstein machinations and Lawrence’s supposed hotness I misunderstood. (Incidentally, my point was that I think Lawrence was better in the HGs than Chastain in ZDT). I will take you at you word: “I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance.” That’s all I ask.
Lynne
H-I-L-A-R-I-O-U-S 🙂 Sasha or Ryan should post it on the main page 🙂
OMG!
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION – Anne Hathaway reminds the Academy why she must (and will) win the Oscar: http://youtu.be/y4yxsRRnvkE
LOL, I can’t breathe!
Winston
“Btw-Is it possible that Chastain didn’t have the “luxury” of expressing her emotions more forcefully because her role does not require the same degree of emotional range? Exactly. The rationzlizations are endless.”
You nailed your problem on the head, Winston. Now I’m certain you have this lazy idea of acting that only big flashy scenes can express emotions well and that’s just ignorant. The skill set and nuances ‘Maya’ required, INCLUDING conveying emotions in a low-key yet effective and powerful manner, is something only the best actresses could have pulled off.
And you’re right, the rationalizations ARE endless…and it would be refreshing if you didn’t pretend that yours aren’t part of it.
Winston
“Chatain played the woman who tracked down bin ladin. Watts played a woman in the aftermath of a tsunami. Riva played a woman struck by the ravages of old age. Heck, Cotillard played a woman tragically confined to a wheelchair. There is a lot more of the usual oscar bait in those roles that Tiffany in SLP.”
TRANSLATION : Female performances in two genre films and two foreign language films are MORE Oscar-bait than the uberlikable hottie in THE crowdpleaser (Sandra Bullock, Reese Witherspoon, Julia Roberts, Gwyneth Paltrow, Helen Hunt). Clearly you base that on the (non-existent) fact that there are so many Best Actress winners from historical thrillers, disaster films and foreign language films. Well, that theory won’t fly.
“Lawrence even outacted Chastain in the Hunger Games. None of her rivals have the skill to do what she does. Sorry.”
I didn’t know Chastain was in The Hunger Games, well, I guess you learn something new every day. And once again, “none of her rivals have the skill to do what she does” is ridiculously subjective and if you want to hear MY subjective response here it is : as talented as Lawrence is, her range and skill set doesn’t even come close to Chastain’s. Not for now at least.
“You are entitled to your opinion right or wrong.”
And here I thought an opinion is ONCE AGAIN subjective therefore cannot be flat out right OR wrong…
“But so are the SAG voters, the AACTA voters, the voters from numerous critics groups and individual film critics.”
With all due respect, have you EVER gave a fuck about AACTA before Lawrence won it ? I have a hard time understanding how that is an award worth bringing up over and over again in an Oscar-conversation. NBR is a stronger Oscar-predictor and that went to Chastain. The HFPA awarded Chastain, too, and in a much more competitive category (Lawrence run basically unopposed), and 8 of the last 10 Best Actress Oscar winners were GG Drama winners, and only 2 were GG Comedy winners. The BFCA awarded Chastain instead of Lawrence and their Oscar-track record in the category is identical with SAG (6 out of 10 in the last 10 years). Sure, Lawrence won SAG, THAT is why she is the frontrunner at the moment. My problem is that you are trying to convince everyone that she doesn’t have competition when she so clearly does. And I wouldn’t bring up critics groups, if I were you, Chastain has as many wins as Lawrence, only these groups awarded ZD30 Bp/Bd wins, as well and they weren’t that into Silver Linings Playbook.
“I think Lawrence delivered the best performance. I don’t think Chastian’s performance was any better than the role and the role was petty flat.”
That’s your take, my highly arguable personal opinion is that ‘Maya’ had more dimensions and layers than the four SLP principal characters combined. And for the record, I did love those four performances, even though I didn’t like the film.
“But rather than just admit that the numerous people and voters who disagree with you may have a valid point, instead we get nonsense and conspiracy theories.”
Are you even attempting to listen to what I’m telling you or you are just answering without reading my comments ? I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance…only they are doing it in the wrong category.
“Apparently a lot of people that matter do not agree with you.”
Big whoop. A lot of people that matter do not agree with YOU, if they did, Chastain wouldn’t have won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and 12 (!) critics awards. You do realize that I am ONLY trying to convince you to admit that Lawrence isn’t the only strong, viable BA contender this year, right ? Because that’s my sole problem with you. You act like Lawrence is alone in her category. She isn’t. Nor should she be. Not in a year like this.
Btw-Is it possible that Chastain didn’t have the “luxury” of expressing her emotions more forcefully because her role does not require the same degree of emotional range? Exactly. The rationzlizations are endless.
@Phantom-Chatain played the woman who tracked down bin ladin. Watts played a woman in the aftermath of a tsunami. Riva played a woman struck by the ravages of old age. Heck, Cotillard played a woman tragically confined to a wheelchair. There is a lot more of the usual oscar bait in those roles that Tiffany in SLP. Lawrence even outacted Chastain in the Hunger Games. None of her rivals have the skill to do what she does. Sorry.
But all of this misses the point. You are entitled to your opinion right or wrong. But so are the SAG voters, the AACTA voters, the voters from numerous critics groups and individual film critics. I think Lawrence delivered the best performance. I don’t think Chastian’s performance was any better than the role and the role was petty flat. The SAG voters shared my opinion. But rather than just admit that the numerous people and voters who disagree with you may have a valid point, instead we get nonsense and conspiracy theories. Apparently a lot of people that matter do not agree with you. Nor should they. If people can’t handle that then don’t watch the ceremony.
Life is full of disappointments.
If we were at some kind of public event, I’d stand up and clap very loudly after hearing what phantom just said.
Well said sir. Well said.
Winston
“Lawrence simply outacted her peers, and without any of the standard Oscar trappings (…) The simplest explanation, that maybe Lawrence is a phenomenal actress, cannot possibly be true, right?”
See, you just simply don’t want to understand that no matter how many times you claim things like she ‘simply outacted her peers’ it will still remain your very subjective, very arguable personal opinion and not some kind of fact that should secure Jennifer Lawrence the Oscar. I don’t doubt for a second that she is a “phenomenal actress” with a long and bright future ahead of her and that still doesn’t mean I automatically have to consider her the best and most worthy Best Actress contender this year. And with all due respect “without any of the standard Oscar trappings” ? Are you kidding me with this ? Tiffany is a TEXTBOOK Best Actress performance – hot, likable, endearingly neurotic with a few VERY Academy-friendly flashy crazyscreamingcrying Oscar scenes. You know whose performance isn’t typical Oscar-bait ? Jessica Chastain’s, a tough, unlikable, no-nonsense, emotionally crippled female who has to convey emotions with silence and only a look or a muscle in her face. She doesn’t have the luxury of just losing it big time in a diner and with teary eyes fall into the arms of her big strong male love interest. You know who else don’t have those luxuries? Naomi Watts and Emmanuelle Riva. They had to deliver their performances from the neck up and were truly remarkable. All three of Lawrence’s closest ‘rivals’ delivered expertly executed, outstandingly difficult performances playing strikingly strong female characters, so no, I do not think Lawrence gave the best Lead Actress performance this year, first of all because I don’t consider Tiffany lead, and second because she nailed a complex performance that had the advantage of remarkably Oscar-friendly (=calculated) writing and execution, something Chastain, Watts and Riva didn’t have and in my opinion, that’s exactly why they ended up delivering considerably stronger and more memorable performances.
P.S. If someone like Parker Posey or Amy Ryan had played Tiffany (the character in the novel is that type, not a 21 year old bombshell), I can guarantee you the actress in question wouldn’t have ended in the Lead race. Lawrence did because she is a huge movie star now and has Oscar-magician Weinstein in her corner who didn’t have any other viable Best Actress contenders this year. If he had Zero Dark Thirty, as well, I’m fairly certain he would have placed Lawrence in supporting so he can win both actress categories. Just a theory.
Listen guys, JL is gonna win b/c, AACTA! Because, Winter’s Bone! Because, better! Yet nothing of substance in her role or performance…..just because. She’s winning because.
We got your argument, Winston. If you aren’t gonna say anything new or different or meaningful, stop wasting bandwidth and comment space.
The pneumonia claim last night took the fucking cake. Lie of fucking lies. Anyone who has had pneumonia or been close to someone with pneumonia knows it doesn’t just go away without a trace for special occasions. They know she isn’t the strongest, so they are cultivating the Oscar in all the old dirty ways. It is sad really, b/c Lawrence doesn’t need it. She’s so very young and has more Oscar bait out next year. But if they want to shoot her wad on this mess, cool. I guess her people would rather she be a Gwyneth instead of a Meryl.
Oh I missed one. @JLaw!-So studios have pushed Lawrence’s career Let’s see. She won outstanding performance from the LA film critics for Poker House. What studio was associated with that? Skipping ahead, she received her first Oscar nomination for Winter’s Bone. Again which studio pushed her forward? In fact in both cases these were dirt cheap indies that had no studio backing.
So now we have theory No. 3-She is just some grand studio creation. Could she just be extremely talented? Nah. `
If you have the talent you make your own breaks.
If Jennifer Lawrence wins the Oscar will be one of the worst Oscar gave ever, like Reese Whiterspoon or Sandra Bullock.
A bunch of comments to respond to:
@Phantom-This is subjective, but in that case you cannot tell me that Lawrence being 22 and also the lead in a major franchise is not a factor here. In fact it drives the hipster wannabes crazy. So now Riva is the great anti-Lawrence hopeful? I guess we should overlook that Lawrence just beat her head to head at the AACTAs. Lawrence simply outacted her peers, and without any of the standard Oscar trappings. Take it or leave it. People are certainly free to disagree. However instead people are acting like the very idea is inconceivable and are therefore trying to find other explanations that are delusional and insulting. Weinstein bribed everyone. Or voters are a bunch of dirty old men with sexual fantasies. (Why shouldn’t that also apply to Chastain who is very attractive?). The simplest explanation, that maybe Lawrence is a phenomenal actress, cannot possibly be true, right?
@Mel-Name one major female acting talent that first emerged when she was in her mid 30s. Chastain is a good actress. But it seems she gets a lot of hype based on issues of pedigree.
Jerry Grant, now that you’ve given us the honest truth, I was wondering if you could give us the dishonest truth?
Here’s the honest truth. Lincoln is the #1 most likely to win in the following categories:
Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Supporting actor.
How strange it is that it is also not in the lead to win Best Picture.
I think Ryan is right (above) that the breakdown was probably (almost certainly) VERY close.
Lincoln is certainly still in it.
AMPAS has a mind of its own.
Argo has peaked, and there will be a knee-jerk reaction to put Spielberg in the spotlight again.
Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. It has all the “King’s Speech” elements that AMPAS likes: historical sweep, perfect casting, screen adaptation from beloved biographies, technical savy, some good acting, and, most importantly, it is now the underdog.
AMPAS likes to reward the underdog, even though the movie has made a zillion fucking dollars.
Ryan’s theory is unsubstantiated but probably correct. I think all of the top films are ridiculously close in terms of overall support. That Argo keeps winning could be a statistical curiosity just as easily as it is a runaway leader.
I suspect the lack of enthusiasm is due to the fact that these poor Hollywood folks were all attending thier third awards ceremony in three weeks. As much as it sounds like fun to us, to them it must be horribly dull. Especially for the people who have to do this on an almost annual basis. I bet January is Meryl Streep’s least favorite year.
At the risk of sounding remarkably cynical, what’s the source for this Lawrence-pneumonia story ? Because I’ve had pneumonia last year and when I wasn’t coughing my tonsils out I was lying in bed half dead with a horrible, barely existent version of my voice and she looked just fine to me, no sign of any sickness at all, definitely no sign of something as serious as pneumonia. Frankly, the moment I heard about this, my instant first thought was : classic Harvey. The brave little trooper attends the event then ‘ohmygod’ she even wins, gets the award from her acting legend co-star (who else ?) and then delivers a bland, completely uncharacteristic (=overly calculated and respectful), though still occasionally funny speech that once again reeks of Harvey who clearly felt the need to do some SNL-damage control and ordered her to tone it down and class it up. Again, I can’t blame her or anyone else for ‘playing the game’ and campaigning HARD for an Oscar, I’m just saying this was my impression. Whether it was the truth or not, now that we’ll never know. What we do know that Lawrence has been campaigning her ass off, so we can’t really pretend that she doesn’t want this bad, because she clearly does…and there is nothing wrong with contenders who publicly WANT it, it’s more annoying when they claim they don’t and it’s obvious they do (Mr. ‘awardsarethedevilbutiwillstillattendeveryceremonyifiamnominatedjustincase’ Joaquin Phoenix, whose performance I admired, his attitude ? Not that much.)
Before everyone jumps over to the new article and topic of discussion (why Argo is winning everything) I just wanna say that
Jennifer Lawrence winning last night was predictable and disappointing. JLaw! pounds the nail on the head that gets more and more lodged inside a reasonable brain: she’s winning because she’s the IT girl at the moment. And that pisses me right off.
Here’s hoping Riva or Chastain pull the rug right under her and Harvey on Oscar night.
Ryan, I so agree with that theory that Argo can’t possibly be leading by that much. But to be fair, the SAG crowd wasn’t particularly excitable last night anyway. There was hardly a standing ovation for Daniel Day-Lewis. And as much as it confuses me to think that Argo could be an across-the-board industry favorite like ROTK, Slumdog, and Chicago, how has it won every televised award, even ones it plainly doesn’t deserve like SAG, if it’s not an overwhelming favorite? So the question then is not how strongly the guilds prefer Argo but how closely the Academy vote will resemble theirs.
@JLaw
Sure, we could do that. We really could do a lot of things. Find out more about their favourite shampoos and see how that influences their picks. There is really a shitload of things that you can dig up to discredit the choice of any group for that matter. The question is – why? If the Critics are nor Critics anymore, if the guilds are just a bunch of people who don’t know jack shit about movies and if the Academy is just a bunch of 50-60 year old white men, then I have to ask you. Why bother? Why do you still comment on these awards? You know what movies you liked and didn’t, that’s your chocice. Why crap all over a group of people who don’t seem to share your opinion? Do you need them to award the movies you likes? Are you that insecure about your choices? Live and let live for fucks sake. Instead of being on a constant quest to undermine the reason for the decision of SAG, DGA, PGA or whatever do what a person who doesn’t seem to care about their opinion should do. Leave it be. Don’t like their choices? Fine, you know what movies you liked. Why care about the people, who don’t share your opinion. I guarantee that they sure as shit don’t care about yours.
I like your predictions except that they may be optimistic, and also Anna Karenina will win Costumes. Not sure about Wreck-It Ralph vs. Frankenweenie, or those pesky sound categories.
I just have to say:
Argo won SAG — Ben Affleck is an actor
Argo won PGA — Ben Affleck is a producer
Argo won the Globe — Ben Affleck is a star
Argo won the Critics Choice — Ben Affleck is a popular, likable star who was considered one of the Oscar frontrunners before the nominations
Argo will win the DGA? — Ben Affleck is the director
Argo will win the WGA?? — Ben Affleck didn’t write the film, but he has an Oscar for writing
Argo will win multiple Oscars??? — It isn’t the best film nor the best in most categories for which it’s nominated. Does the Academy care about who Ben Affleck is??
Ron Howard was a boy wunderkind everyone had grown up with on Happy Days, who went on to make comedy hits like Splash, but that didn’t make the Academy listen to the guilds and vote for Apollo 13 (a superior film to Argo and much more challenging) over a popular, epic film and star they preferred.
Grasping at straws here. Does Lincoln have the juice to do what Braveheart did?
I don’t mind being a contrarian. Otherwise this will be a borefest until Cannes.
Assuming Argo wins the DGA and even the WGA, which I don’t think will happen but for the sake of theorizing, Current and possibly final prediction-desires hybrid
Best Picture: LINCOLN
Best Director: Steven Spielberg,LINCOLN
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR
Best S. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN
Best S. Actress: Anne Hathaway, LES MIZ
Best Original: Michael Haneke, AMOUR (alt: Quentin Tarantino, DJANGO UNCHAINED)
Best Adapted: Tony Kushner, LINCOLN
Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda, LIFE OF PI
Best Score: John Williams, LINCOLN
Best Editing: William Goldenberg, ARGO
Best Production Design: LINCOLN
Best Costume Design: MIRROR MIRROR (alt: LINCOLN)
Best Make-up: THE HOBBIT
Best Sound E.: LIFE OF PI
Best Sound M.: LIFE OF PI
Best Visual Effects: LIFE OF PI
Best Foreign Film: AMOUR
Best Animated Film: FRANKENWEENIE (Alt: WRECK-IT RALPH)
Best Documentary: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
Best Song: SKYFALL (throw up a little in my mouth)
Koles,
How astute you are. Now we should use the scientific method to figure out how these things work as opposed to hypotheses and defenses of a decision based on supposition (no matter how close the person is to the industry) that…EVERYONE who talks about awards tend to use.
I agree with JLaw though. There IS a double standard when it comes to awarding actresses, whereas Actor and Supporting Actor almost always go to the strongest, richest performance. And certainly this year, it’s not hard to imagine voters recognizing the typical brilliance of Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones, but in the Best Actress category, they are stuck with Lawrence because she’s the only one with a fully fleshed-out character. I have a feeling many of them would actually prefer to award Chastain, based on her age, training, and slow-rise backstory, and the fact that her character on paper is the best one, but the role isn’t meaty enough, and now the movie is untouchable. One would hope that they are itching to award Naomi Watts, too, let alone Julianne Moore and Claire Danes, if they ever acquire the right film role.
The sad thing is — and I know you’re not supposed to do this — that anyone could have played Lawrence’s role in SLP. Bradley Cooper to his credit had the more challenging role. 10 years ago Naomi Watts would have aced the role, and what the movie would have lost in tween cred it might have gained in emotional depth. Hell, even Chastain might have pulled it off; she seems to have the dramatic chops for it, and The Help proved she can do light comedy, but she just doesn’t have the look or appeal. Lawrence was good and she was certainly well suited for the part in terms of her looks, popularity, and sardonic personality, but it just isn’t a well written or very unique role that should be winning Oscars. She was so much more interesting and impressive in Winter’s Bone, and I’m sure she’ll go on to bigger and better projects in the future.
Argo winning the SAG ensemble and PGA are the only sympathetic votes for Ben’s snub at the oscars. The Critics Chouce and Globes final ballots were out before the Oscar nods but these wins are very deserving.
This will be a picture/director split year.
Ang and Steven are not due at all. Spielberg has 2 oscars and ang has one. Drop it.
Jen’s win makes her front runner and can easily win the BAFTA. Even if she loses, the movie will win an Oscar somewhere with all it’s support in nominations. She’s the best chance and the “it girl” right now. And she should have won for Winters Bone and we know how the Academy loves to make up for those awards.
Also, if Anne and Jen win next month, maybe it’s fur their year they had in great films. Anne for Dark Knight and Les Mis and being the best thing about both films, and Jen for Hunger Games and SLP. Think about it.
@JLaw
“As for SAG, well, let’s just say some of those bit actors probably fantasize about her and her meteoric rise, while some of the veterans think she’s a cute young thing and it’d be great to give her an award just for being herself.”
So what does that say about them awarding Daniel Day-Lewis? There was this guy from Wolverine who is cute and is singing, why didn’t they give it to him? Or Tommy Lee Jones for that matter? He’s just an old timer with a grumpy cat face. Why not award the ultra-cute Bardem?
The way I see this, if you want to find a shit reason for some group awarding someone you don’t aprove of you’ll find it without any trouble. These guys are assholes, those guys are perves, “so called actors, what do they know” ect. So go ahead, keep digging this funny shit up. See how far you’ll get in changing reality with these funny facts that’s only purpose is to justify that ABOVE ALL YOU ARE RIGHT!!!
Good luck, have a safe trip.
JLaw’s estimation is revelatory! Great job!
Lawrence does indeed look like the winner for nearly all these reasons, but we can all still dream of Riva, Watts or Chastain walking up to the podium!
After reading some disparaging remarks about why Chastain hasn’t “made it” until her mid-30s while Lawrence is kicking doors down now and kicking ass as a true measure of Lawrence’s talent…I have to state the obvious.
Studios are pushing for Lawrence and her career. She has turned into a commodity now with her hit blockbuster franchise coming up, and it will behoove the studios to reward her while the iron is hot. It’s like the Grace Kelly thing where she signed up for like five new movies before the Oscars and therefore had Hollywood studio support.
She’s a studio’s dream. She has the hipster crowd who thinks its cool to like her and her irreverent attitude, she has the male demographic who just ogles over her (look at David O. Russell’s camera work in SLP), she has the tween vote (omg, Hunger Games is like the best book ever!), and she has the young adult vote (like, I have a mad crush on her as Mystique!). I think a lot of the critic groups are full of nerdy guys or pervy old men who are just lusting after her. As for SAG, well, let’s just say some of those bit actors probably fantasize about her and her meteoric rise, while some of the veterans think she’s a cute young thing and it’d be great to give her an award just for being herself.
Too bad all this success comes with a premature Oscar nomination and critical acclaim.
Discussion of the relative meits of Lawrence and Chastain is like discussion of the relative merits of Argo and SLP…. meh vs meh.
Why should we care if either wins?
Best Actor: Hugh Jackman
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Why is Argo not in bold font?
Argo – 4 stars – Decent, but not great. But, this has been a year of mediocrity, and this is the most watchable mediocre movie of the year.
Lincoln – 2.5 stars – Boring. Not engaging in any way. Cliched in terms of story telling and music. Tommy Lee Jones is the only stand out. I’d venture to say DDL won’t with the Oscar either.
Life of Pi – 3 stars – Alright.. didn’t enjoy it much.
Les Miserables – 4 stars – The most passionate movie of the year. A true epic. Good performances too. I am tempted to predict Hugh Jackman for the Oscar ahead of DDL.
Django Unchained – 4 stars – My favorite movie of the year so far. The most fun to watch.
Really loved Argo so I am very pleased that it won. Surely Argo winning is the Big news of the weekend and not Lincoln winning two awards. Bias much?
The only real disappointment was the win for Jennifer Lawrence This has nothing to do about her performance but has everything to do with Harvey’s push. She is a good actress but this performance is not an Oscar worthy one. I hope there are some surprises on Oscar night. It looks like Argo is in the lead to get Best Pic.
PS: feel bad for the people sitting next to Jennifer Lawrence last night since she has pneumonia (and yes it is contagious). Between the two awards who knows how many people she got sick (she had the flu at the GG)
@ VITAMIN168
We are talking about the SAG here. Life of Pi didn’t even feature an ensemble cast. would you nominate the tiger and the fish? It is a movie that is well told and visually brilliant and it featured a small cast. Not to mention that the story just revolved in a single person.
Karl, I’m sorry to disagree with you but Lawrence doesn’t deserve to be named alongside Witherspoon or Bullock as mistakes. Witherspoon should’ve contended in supporting and Bullock shouldn’t have gotten further than a GG nod. Lawrence did some very fine work for someone of her age, exceptional even. Did she give the best female lead performance of the year? Probably not, I haven’t seen Amour to even make a call. But they could award worse people than her. I have a feeling when SLP comes out on DVD and I watch it again the 2nd time, I’ll be greatly rewarded. After seeing some of those clips last night of the ensemble, De Niro, Cooper and Lawrence I had forgotten how great the movie is.
What? Lawrence won? If she wins the Oscar will be one of the worst Oscar gave ever, like Reese Whiterspoon or Sandra Bullock.
Please Academy, give the Oscar to Jessica Chastain, Emmanuelle Riva or Naomi Watts.
Is the title of this thread serious? The biggest news is Argo for ensemble not Lincolns two awards. Your cheerleading for this film is embarassing guys
david b;
” I predicted Argo because of its international appeal.” What is its international appeal? Argo is having something 70 something international box office and many other best oscar film nominations have already topped that. Not to mention Life of Pi with a hefty 424 million international box office, that is an art house movie with a real international appeal.
Argo is one of the year’s best and surely deserved the SAG!
My predictions:
Picture – Argo
Director – Spielberg
Actor – Day-Lewis
Actress – Lawrence
S. Actor – Jones
S. Actress – Hathaway
@phantom. You totally nailed it with your reading of the Best Actress race. Couldn’t agree more with your analysis. Also worth noting that SAG didn’t receive screeners of ZD30. Last year they got The Help but not Streeps movie, and we know what happened then.
I know this likely doesn’t count but when Argo won for ensemble, I didn’t see the reaction of the crowd that I was expecting to see. It was not like their stunned for a good reason, it was just a bland reaction from the actors around. Remember, 2000+ actors are assigned for the nomination. For selecting the winners, 160,000+ “actors” are allowed to vote. Even MARIA SHARAPOVA, is a member of the SAG-AFTRA union. If I’m not wrong, the union was just merged on MARCH 2012.
I predicted Argo so I wasn’t that surprised. I predicted 4/4 in films. I predicted Argo because of its international appeal. Remember, there are 160,000 members of the SAG-Aftra union around the WORLD, and some of the films released haven’t even opened on other territories that might be a factor why SLP or Lincoln lost. Les Mis is not everyone’s cup of tea but majority of people loved it while Argo, is consistently like all around. But it is still a surprise when Argo won mainly because it is not the strongest “ensemble” among the nominees.
So my point exactly is that, let’s imagine that the 2000+ nominating committee, were the only allowed voters to choose the winners. And let’s say that the 2000+ actors are members of the Academy, would they still vote for ARGO? I don’t think so. If they were the only allowed voters, I think Argo would not win considering SLP’s popularity among the actors.
I’m still not convinced about ARGO winning the Oscar and that’s only a gut feeling. The Academy is surprisingly very different this year, so I consider them not going with the flow. They chose good films to nominate and some of them might even think that it will be a fluke if they will just vote ARGO considering the fact that they nominated a lot of films that voting Argo would be such a waste of time on the nominations that they have worked hard for.
This is a brave thing to say, but ARGO will not win the OSCAR. I don’t follow stats this year and I assume that it will not translate to BP.
I’m not fan of any films but I still think that it’s Lincoln vs. SLP at the OSCARS.
I know this likely doesn’t count but when Argo won for ensemble, I didn’t see the reaction of the crowd that I was expecting to see.
My theory. Argo doesn’t feel like an overwhelming favorite. Argo did not win like this:
55% Argo
25% Lincoln
15% SLP
5% Other
No, Argo won more like this:
25% Argo
24% Lincoln
21% SLP
20% Les Mis
10% Marigold
We didn’t see half the SAG crowd hoop and holler when Argo won because when Argo won 75% of the crowd were thinking, “oh, ok, but that’s not what I wanted.”
What we are seeing, I think, is verification of what many of us have already sensed for weeks. In light of Best Director confusion, there’s a waffling at the top of the BP stack between 3 popular contenders running close beside one another. That’s where the preferential system edged Argo ahead with the PGA, but the actors seem less enthused thatn the producers guild and there are more far actors in the Academy than anybody else.
There’s a phrase for a situation when two alternatives show nearly equal support: it might almost come down to a coin toss.
The only thing we can say for 100% certain is the Ben Affleck is not winning an Oscar for Best Director.
When is the DGA?
Wouldn’t it be nice if Ang Lee wins that, and suddenly everything becomes truly wide open for Picture / Director / Screenplay ?
Locks seem DDL and TLJ for Lincoln, though I would pick other performances for those categories.
Argo is a perfectly executed film, with a perfect script and a perfect cast. It never gets boring and never outsays its welcome.
That being said, it was a wonderful year for the movies – foreigns and documentaries included – which will be hard to top. My favorite is Life of Pi, but I am OK with it just walking away with all those nominations, without a win. But I sure do hope it does a “Hugo” and takes over the techs (and, please, screenplay and director). But even it doesnt, everyone got thrown a bone this year, between the guild awards, the baftas, the globes, the critics and the academy.
All except maybe “Tabu”, from my country, which I think could have been pushed for awards season but wasn’t.
I too will, like Tony above, will be somewhat relaxed come Oscar night. Unless Lincoln sweeps, then I’ll turn into a raving bear and storm into Hollywood and paw everyone
T.
Congratz to all the winners of SAG!
J-Law’s now the youngest SAG winner! Harvey did it again. Like it or not, but she’s the frontrunner now.
I doubt anyone can beat DDL and Hathaway. TLJ got a huge boost, but it’s not that secure at all. In that case maybe the BAFTA will tell.
Although the category is full of previous winners, so one of them will win a second Oscar. How crazy is that?!
I’m not sure if the BAFTA win for best actress is a game changer this year, even if Riva wins it (and she’s the most likely imo right now).
Last year it was of course. If you’re playing a real person, a combo of Golden Globe+BAFTA can even overpower a BFCA+SAG combo. It happened three times now and I’m curious if it happens again.
Does anyone here want to read what is likely a very good book (since it’s written by Ron Rash) that is the source for one of the more high profile Oscar Bait 2013 movies that will star one of tonight’s four feature film acting winners?
Seems I have a spare copy of “Serena” by Ron Rash for the Kindle (weird how things work out) and I can forward it to someone who wants to read it. If you want the copy, not sure exactly how I or Ryan will get it to you, but one of us will get it to you. (You see, Ryan has access to your e-mail, I do not)
Christiannw wins comment of the day! Way to go!
This is not a hard and fast rule, but it seems the most thoughtful people here like Chastain, and the poorly thought out comments generally favor Lawrence.
I, of course, am the exception to the above rule.
Best acceptance speech of the evening? Tommy Lee Jones or Kevin Costner, I can’t decide.
As much as I would like to see Riva win, “Amour” most likely will swipe at least one (foreign) or maybe even two (o. screenplay). Third Oscar to a movie with only 5 nods (and far from being a frontrunner) in major categories is just too much. SLP is going to bomb at the Oscars, but with 8 nods it’s bound to win at least one and that’s Jennifer Lawrence. I have no idea who wins director, but I’m pretty sure O’Russell is out of the race, same goes for Zeitlin. So it’s Haneke vs. Lee vs. Spielberg. Haneke gets foreign and possibly screenplay, so he already has plenty. Lee can only win if he gets some love from the DGA, but that’s not very likely to happen. So my guess is that Spielberg wins. Right now my predicts look like this.
Picture – Argo
Director – Spielberg
Actor – Day-Lewis
Actress – Lawrence
S. Actor – Jones (still not sure about this one, but SAG helped him a lot)
S. Actress – Hathaway
O. Screenplay – Amour
A. Screenplay – Argo
Cinematography – Life of Pi
Editing – Argo
Art Direction – Les Miserables
Costumes – Anna Karenina
Make-up – Les Miserables
Score – Life of Pi
Song – Skyfall
Sound Mixing – Skyfall
Sound Editing – Skyfall
Visual Effects – Life pf Pi
Foreign – Amour
Argo – 3
Lincoln – 3
Life of Pi – 3
Les Miserables – 3
Skyfall – 3
Amour – 2
SLP – 1
Anna Karenina – 1
Zero Dark Thirty – 0
Django Unchained – 0
Beasts of the Southern Wild – 0
If the DGA and WGA goes Spielberg’s way, then “Lincoln” wins also Picture and Screenplay and “Argo” looses editing to “Zero Dark Thirty” ending up with no Oscars. We’ll see.
Argo’s late surge has made the Best Director race wide open to the likes of Haneke and Lee especially if Spielberg loses DGA which obviously is not a long shot.
that’s to Mel, of course!