AwardsDaily’s 14th Annual Predict the Oscar Contest Open for Business

predictoscars

It’s hard to believe that it will all come down to this. The same rules apply – you may enter more than once but we’ll always keep your most recent entry. CONTEST PAGE IS OPEN.

Here are some key upcoming dates:
January 24-PGA ballot deadline
January 25-PGA awards, WGA ballot deadline
January 28-SAG awards
February 1-DGA ballot deadline
February 2-DGA awards
February 8-AMPAS final ballots go out
February 19–AMPAS final ballots in
February 24–The Oscars, baby, the Oscars

31 Comments on this Post

  1. Going through that exercise, what sticks out more than anything is the inability to give Affleck a vote apart from BP.

    I can’t see him going away without an award.

  2. Btw- there are a couple of things in this form that have carried over from another form.
    ( best song 4 and BP wording asking for 5)

  3. And everybody votes on 23 Feb. :)

  4. When is BAFTA?

  5. You are right Fabinho. I want to wait until I see who wins PGA, SAG and DGA before I decide. I will still probably change my predictions 50 times. Tough year to predict. So far all we ever knew has been thrown out the window!

  6. AnthonyP

    Some of the categories are wrong aren’t they?

    The Painter – Animated?
    SOund Mixing – Total Recall?
    Anim Shorts doesn’t have Fresh Guac

  7. Christophe

    yes, it should be Pirates! Band of Misfits instead of The Painting in best anim feature. how dare you confuse the two? Pirates! was so much better!

    also, will there be a simulated ballot later on?

  8. I believe that SAG will definitely go with Affleck. And I’m judging from the following:
    * the standing ovation at the Golden Globes
    * the standing ovation at the Critics’ Choice
    * it’s a big ensemble that includes some terrific actors
    * two things: Halle Berry & Julia Roberts at the Globes, they were HAPPY to give the award to Affleck; just look at their faces and how they looked at him before announcing!

    The film will take cast.
    Then: the PGA could still push it. Of course they could push for Kathleen Kennedy as well, but with the sentiment for Affleck, I doubt it.
    Which leaves the DGA and with Spielberg having 3 DGA wins, a win for Affleck is likely. He has too much going for him. WGA will probably back Lincoln, but Argo is a possibility – LAFCA winner. In the end if DGA, SAG, WGA, Cinema Editors Guild and PGA go for the film, predictions would be a hard thing to do.

  9. OT: bored and in mourning over what seems near the end of the road for this year, I went and had a look ahead to see what’s coming up. The future looks fine, but I gotta say the box office may not be as healthy as 2012.

    This is not comprehensive, i started looking at it for Oscar bait and then gradually incorporated films that sound, on paper, top shelf.

    The Great Gatsby
    Elysium
    Prisoners
    Captain Phillips
    Monument Men
    Saving Mr Banks
    Twelve Years a Slave
    Serena
    Nebraska
    The Nymphomaniacs
    Only God Forgives
    Only Lovers Left Alive
    The Look of Love
    Malavita
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    Kill Your Darlings
    Labour Day
    Grace of Monaco
    Gravity
    Her
    How I Lived Now
    I’m so Excited
    Don Jon’s Addiction
    The Double
    Effie
    Frank
    Freezing People is Easy
    Counselor
    Dallas Buyers Club
    The Devil’s Knot
    Diana
    About Time
    August Osage County
    Bling Ring
    The Butler

    Sure there’s more. So if anyone feels a bit punchy, take a ganders.

  10. so who won the oscar nominations contest?

  11. Tory Smith

    I’m going to bet my money and choose David O. Russell as being named Best Director. They’re going to award Silver Linings Playbook somewhere, and I feel most confident in that specific category.

  12. I agree. For all reasons, Affleck will win.
    The Academy is crazy this year. I hppe DGA aren’t too.
    Matt Awards,
    It’ s a so weirdo year, that I think there’s no prediction to do.

  13. Right now, my feelings are similar to Mattoc, so my first (of probably many) ballot submissions will have Argo for BP. It’s a long stretch between now and Jan 24th and would be fun to look at some other categories/nominees like score, cinematography, art direction, etc.

    Regarding 2013, I’ve already drawn a bead on Twelve Years a Slave and Only God Forgives. Hopefully McQueen and Winding Refn can get more attention than they did last pass.

  14. I have seen the movie Amour and man this should sweep all the awards looking at the competition. This is by far the best movie of the year. Just awesome and touching. I personally recommend all of you watch this movie before the oscars.

  15. @Fabinho – Affleck cannot win anything from now on. Lee, Haneke, Zeitlin – all have better directorial achievement in their movies. Globes always liked to award what is popular – that is their way of doing things – a small group which needs attraction from media to keep going on. But come oscar night it will be a completely different story – believe me.

  16. @Tory – SLP has the best chance of getting an award in supporting actor category – DeNiro, if they decide to award something to the movie. All other categories have at least one better competition than SLP. This is the fact.

  17. Christophe

    Well, I have just watched the movie Amour too and it was dreadful. I had to hit pause several times, because it was so hard to bear. I was very relieved when it ended. The only movie directed by Haneke I ever really liked was the piano teacher, now that was smth.

  18. rufussondheim

    Mattoc, curious if you deliberately left off Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher off the list or if it was an oversight.

  19. rufussondheim

    So I just went to the imdb page for 12 years a slave to see if it’s been updated and sadly it’s not. Still trying to figure out what character Brad Pitt is playing. But I chuckle when I see such important roles as “Patsey” listed below “Child in the Park” and “Dining Room Patron.” So I go over to Wikipedia and at least they have Brad Pitt’s character down. (It’s a small role, so no Oscars are in his future for this film) but even they don’t have listed the crucial roles of Eliza and Patsey in their cast section. I can’t imagine Steve McQueen has diminished their importance in the film so I’m just left to chuckle some more.

  20. Greg Robinson

    Right now Lincoln is like a champion race horse about to come down the straight holding itself back in about second or third place ready for that final burst to the finish line which it will do at a canter simply because it has so much left in the tank. Lincoln will sweep the Oscars. The Critics awards and Golden Globes have no bearing on the Oscars as voting for these groups closed before the Oscar nominations were announced. Also there is no crossover voting. Mention has been made of Driving Miss Daisy’s victory in 1990. If i remember back to then Born on the 4th of July started out as a big favourite following a haul of 4 Globes but in the end Miss Daisy won because Born stated attracting a lot of of political controversy and it was deemed by many to be an excellent but ugly film. It probably put off a lot of voters. Miss Daisy’s charm and likeability was the next logical choice notwithstanding it not getting a directing nod. It was for me no surprise when it won. One could sense the tide turning against Born even though Stone was winning Best Director by a mile. Lincoln is not attracting controversy unlike Born did back then. Voters are not going to turn away from it because of politics. It is in fact too an important film to ignore – a film for the ages, historical, important, topical, inspiring, elegant, brilliantly acted, written and directed and coated with technical prowess of seasoned campaigners. It has critical and audience approval, the necessary precursor nominations and the prestige to make it more than a worthy Best Picture winner.

  21. rufussondheim

    Somehow comparing Lincoln and Driving Miss Daisy is a perfect analogy, thematically speaking.

  22. I think it’s going to come down between “Argo” and “Lincoln”.

    “Life of Pi” seems a bit too artsy for AMPAS (and with no acting nominations, it probably won’t get that particular branch’s vote).

    I think “Argo” has the edge now, as everyone wants to see Affleck rewarded now. His speech at the Globes helped to cement the likeability factor.

    With DDL practically a foregone conclusion as Best Actor in “Lincoln” (can you really see anybody else winning this award?), Best Actor, Best Supportting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director for Spielberg would be excellent consolation prizes.

    I remember reading in this site last year about how the film editing category is a key indicator for Best Picture. And I can see that group embracing “Argo”. If “Argo” wins film editing, it has a more-than-excellent chance of winning Best Picture. So I’m very anxious to see which picture ACE chooses. The film editors guild could tip the hat to “Argo” taking the big prize in February.

  23. I also think the Oscars will spread around the wealth next month:

    Life of Pi – Best Score / Best Cinematography / Best Visual Effects (3)
    Argo – Best Picture / Best Film Editing / Best Sound (3)
    Lincoln – Best Director / Best Actor / Best Supporting Actor / Best Adapted Screenplay (4)
    Amour – Best Actress / Best Foreign Film (2)
    Moonrise Kingdom – Best Original Screenplay (1)
    Anna Karenina – Best Costume Design / Best Production Design (2)
    Les Miserables – Best Supporting Actress / Best Makeup (2)
    Skyfall – Best Song / Best Sound(2)

    Silver Linings Playbook – I predict this film will walk away empty-handed.

  24. The more I think about it, the more I realize that everybody REALLY wants to see gorgeous Affleck and dreamy Clooney both onstage holding those golden men. It’s a photo opportunity from heaven. So “Argo” wins Best Picture Oscar.

  25. Rufus, Foxcatcher was an oversight.

  26. Emmanuel Riva – Best actress

  27. Just saw Silver lining Playbook, wanted to hate it because of the talents involved (director, cooper) but it was easily the most enjoyable time I had in theater this year. Can’t imagine it not winning something.

  28. No way Argo can win without a BD nod. There are only two movies that deserve BP – Lincoln and Amour.

  29. OK. Here are my predictions. As always the shorts are kind of tricky. Might have to resubmit it later!

    Best Picture of the Year Lincoln
    Best Director- check only five Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Best Actress Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    Best Supporting Actor Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
    Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Original Screenplay Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
    Adapted Screenplay Tony Kushner, Lincoln
    Best Editing Zero Dark Thirty
    Best Cinematography Lincoln
    Best Costume Design Les Miserables
    Best Makeup and Hair The Hobbit
    Best Original Score Lincoln
    Best Production Design Les Miserables
    Best Animated Feature Wreck-it-Ralph
    Best Foreign Language Film Amour
    Best Documentary Feature Searching for Sugarman
    Best Sound mixing Les Miserables
    Best Sound Editing Argo
    Best Visual Effects Life of Pi
    Best Original Song Skyfall
    Live Action Short Asad
    Animated Short Head over Heels
    Documentary Short Kings Point

  30. I would like to see Amour getting Best Director along with the Best Actress and Original Screenplay awards.

  31. It would almost be impossible for Lincoln to get more than three or four awards. It has almost lost all the major awards to competition up until now. It has no BAFTA BD nod. It still can take the Oscar BP award but without probably Best Director, Best Screenplay and Best Editing. It can win the original score and Best Actor.

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