The press release announcing the BAFTA nominations on January 9th has just been sent out. They give a time, 7:35, but I don’t know what time zone they mean by that.

The BAFTA noms will livestreamed at bafta.org and full nominations at 7:45. Again, I am not yet sure what time zone we’re talking about.

What to look for in the BAFTAs are potential trends up or down for certain films.

Expect to see: a big splash for Skyfall, a lot of nominations for Les Miserables (conversely, if those aren’t there, as expected), whether the Brits have gone for Lincoln or not; there’s this notion that the film might not play internationally.  Where Zero Dark Thirty will sit — they gave Bigelow and Boal a big win for The Hurt Locker.

Last year, Their big winner was The Artist which received 12 BAFTA nominations.  And the previous year, of course, The King’s Speech won big.  Prior to that, The Hurt Locker and before that, Slumdog Millionaire.  You have to then go back to 2007 to find Atonement beating No Country for Old Men to find a mismatch.

The BAFTA is not releasing a long list this year so we really have no clue as to how it will play out.  Since the BAFTAS changed their date to happen BEFORE the Oscars only once has the Oscar Best Picture winner not been nominated for a BAFTA and that was Million Dollar Baby and I am fairly certain that it wasn’t eligible.

I have really no earthly idea how the BAFTA will go. But if  either Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty aren’t nominated, that makes them extreme long shots to win.  For BAFTA, it’s more important what isn’t nominated than what is.  Again, like most awards this year, Oscar ballots were turned in before BAFTA’s announcement.

They don’t generally match Oscar’s 100%, when there were five.
2002 5/5
2003 3/5
2004 2/5
2005 4/5
2006 4/5
2007 3/5
2008 5/5
2009 5/5 (out of 10 noms)
2010 5/5 (out of 10 noms)
2011 3/5 (out of 9 noms)

As far as the acting categories, it mostly applies that you need a nod there to win but of course, several Best Actress winners weren’t BAFTA nommed and went on to win.  Best Director is mostly the same — their nominations don’t match but to win you are better off getting a nomination there.

I would guess, though, that their nominees might look something like:

Best Picture
Skyfall
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook, Beasts of the Southern Wild or Les Miserables

I have absolutely no clue here, I must say, other than Skyfall for Best Picture.  Then again, Skyfall could get bumped for Best Picture and end up in Best British Film. I expect Helen Mirren, Daniel Craig, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Wilkinson and Judi Dench will all make it in.  Beyond that, it’s a mystery!

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