The State of the Race: Fumbling At Last Towards Final Oscar Predictions

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“You put too much stock in human intelligence, it doesn’t annihilate human nature.”
― Philip Roth, American Pastoral

As we quickly glance behind to see 84 years of Oscar history already, each one of those years full of stories, moments of madness, glorious victories, regrettable choices that happened in an instant to reward films and actors that, for what looks like a minute, thrilled the privileged few enough to earn their vote, we wonder — will this year be any different? It sure feels different. It even smells different.  When Argo wins Best Picture we will sift through through the wreckage of this year and find yet another movie that was plucked out of Telluride or Toronto that ran the gauntlet, came out the other side unscathed — one that flew under the radar so that it never became anyone’s imaginary whale, or controversy du jour. It succeeded for the reason Oscar movies always succeed: it entertained.

Or we might look back on 2012 and think, how could we ever think any movie could have beaten Lincoln? As it closes in on $150 million, the Spielberg film is officially a phenomenon. Its greatness throughout the country confirmed, and yet here within the beast, Lincoln comes with much baggage. Steven Spielberg himself, loved by many but also diminished somehow by his 30 years of entertaining crowds, has made his best film in 20 years.  But others mutter it’s too boring and too talky and it reminds them of CSPAN and who cares anyway? Sure, if you don’t care about the 13th amendment, the past, present and future of African Americans in this country, you ain’t going to care about Lincoln.  You probably could get more women talking about 50 Shades of Grey than slavery in 2012.  But oh, what a film.

Or in ten years we might look back on 2012 and say, of course Zero Dark Thirty was going to win. How could it not have? It won all of those critics awards — it was such a great follow-up to The Hurt Locker and a woman was about to make Academy and DGA history? How could we not have known? We didn’t know because Zero Dark Thirty has now been branded as a pro-torture, pro-right wing CIA fantasy flick and no amount of protesting seems to stop the tsunami of hate directed at the filmmakers.  Of course, in the end, this could work in their favor — sometimes the worm can turn back around the other way and people feel like propping Bigelow and Boal up.

Or in the end will it really just come down to good old-fashioned human emotion? Will Les Mis ultimately prevail and those whose faith in it can rejoice? Cynicism won out, at least so far with Les Miserables. It isn’t a film that can play with a straight face, not to this crowd.  Even still, could a split year with heavy dramas give way to the musical? It isn’t entirely impossible.

The great thing about 2012 is that, for the first time in a while, it’s a wide open Best Picture race.

Add to that, a year where Oscar voters were grabbed by their shirtcollars and yanked into the modern era of online voting.  Age didn’t seem to be a factor in figuring out their ultra-secure, Anonymous-proof voting system because nearly everyone who chose to vote online seemed to have trouble.  If you didn’t put in the right password in the allotted time you had to then wait 24 hours to reset. If you were voting on the last day you wouldn’t have those extra 24 hours.  No one will ever know how many voters didn’t get to vote but if it’s any comfort, every year many ballots aren’t gotten in on time, even when there was plenty of time.  And can you imagine the outcry if the Oscar ballots had been hacked?

The films themselves are a vibrant array one of the best years for Oscar movies. What do we mean by Oscar movies? They come either from organic buzz, like Beasts of the Southern Wild, or they are positioned early by the studio, primped and groomed by publicists for Oscar season. In years past, most of those have been failed but noble efforts that never ignited the critics much, or the fans. Oscar voters turned towards indie fare, resulting ultimately in an odd dynamic where the Oscar race happened with movies most of the general public had not seen. Ratings tanked.  That won’t be the case this year as most of the films that will be up for the Best Picture win are going to have made, at the minimum, $100 million.  Many people will have seen them, which will make for a TV broadcast more viewers care about. It will funnel money back into the studio system, which is really the thing the Oscars were designed to do.

The BAFTA added the latest twist in an awards race full of twists and turns. Because they greatly altered their voting this year for the first time since 2000 (when they switched their awards to precede the Oscars), that led to both Steven Spielberg and Tom Hooper being shut out of the Best Director race. Why? Because usually the whole membership does the nominating.  They release a shortlist which had asterisks by names that received the most votes from members in that branch — the whole of the membership would then pick final nominations from that refined list.  It’s quite possible both Spielberg and Hooper might have gotten in if the whole of the membership voted on the long list.

Everything we thought we knew about what the nominations meant before this year and all our knowledge of BAFTA history must now be thrown out. We’re flying blind again, as we are with all of the Oscar precursors this year.  Applying this system to previous years might also have amounted to directors being left off the list. Or it could also be that Lincoln is decidedly American and the Brits just don’t really get it. After all, they got rid of slavery a long time before we did. Perhaps, what Lincoln did, who Lincoln was, means less to them than it does to us.  Or perhaps they figured Spielberg and Hooper were givens and that they ought to put their votes where they thought they would matter more — or maybe they just didn’t like Lincoln, those British directors. Who knows. No one can say for sure where the tide is turning until one of the movies in the race wins something significant.

The way it looks right now only three can: Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln

Only Argo has a solid green light all the way down the line. Zero Dark Thirty is missing the crucial SAG ensemble nod, and now Spielberg misses the BAFTA. In all other ways, though, these films have an equal shot at the win.

Human nature is such, however, that not seeing Spielberg’s name — I imagine by now Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere has tripped the light fantastic in his ongoing take-down effort of Lincoln — in itself becomes some kind of ripple effect. Seeing his opportunity to stick the harpoon into that imaginary whale, Wells will delight in this, as will many, very likely, who are hoping to see a different film win Best Picture. Don’t ask me to explain this phenomenon. It is merely human nature. We are a warring people, we gather on teams and we want to win. I have found, after 14 years, it has very little to do with what is really the best film of the year.

Screen-Shot-2013-01-08-at-1.15

Right now, Movie City News has Lincoln in the top slot. Editor David Poland sent out the notices before the DGA announcement. Some of those predictors had switched their vote for Les Miserables to Lincoln, though some switched to Argo.  No one put Les Miserables at number one. But now that Tom Hooper got a DGA nod, that puts Les Mis back in the game not just to get nominated for Oscar, but to win.   That makes me wonder whether it will get back into the number one slot at Movie City News by any of those pundits.  Over at Gold Derby, die hard Les Miserables devotee’s faith never wavered. Les Mis began in the number spot and there it remains, even today, even though Lincoln still leads their overall predictions. Similarly, with Spielberg out at BAFTA watch for a healthy number of pundits to switch their prediction from Lincoln to Argo.  The next headline you will see, I predict, will be “Argo now predicted to win Best Picture,” which brings us back to Telluride.

What the DGA proved, though, is that if there were five nominees for Best Picture: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty.  I believe four more will be added to the list, Silver Linings Playbook, Django Unchained, Moonrise Kingdom, and Beasts of the Southern Wild. If there is a tenth it could be Skyfall or Amour. I feel like I’ve written that very same sentence about twenty times now as the race has unfolded. Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook seemed to be fighting it out for that fifth slot until Django Unchained came along and that very likely took away some of Silver Lining’s votes.

Django also came too late in the game. Because ballots were due so soon in the season, Les Miserables negative buzz hadn’t fully taken hold and Django’s positive buzz is also coming late in the game. Django’s box office is increasing while Les Miserables is tapering off. But that could change in the coming days.  Oscar nominations could continue to push Les Miserables back on top, especially if enthusiasm and love shut down the bad reviews and negative buzz — hey, it could happen. It’s a long shot but not impossible.

So the obvious headline was “The Weinstein Co out of the Best Picture race for 2012.” Stats-wise, that could prove true. But dig a little deeper and you see a winning studio with too many good films.  They had three and they were all good: The Master, Django Unchained and Silver Linings Playbook. The David O. Russell dramedy won the Toronto Audience award so they really had no choice but to push it. And yet, a Tarantino movie, or even a Paul Thomas Anderson movie, is an event onto itself.   So you tell me, is it a failure to have backed those three films just because they aren’t in the Best Picture race? I don’t think so, especially considering what did get in.

The awards race fools us into thinking that film awards are greater than film achievement. If you’ve been reading me for a while you will know what I think about that and I hope you agree: the achievements are the films themselves. The awards must chase after them in hopes that they can somehow catch their fire.  The awards voters sometimes get lucky and pick something wildly great. Most of the time, though, they pick the thing that troubles them the least.  The good part about that is 2012 is a great year for movies so in a way, there is really no losing this year.

“As the preacher said, I could make shorter sermons but once I get started I get too lazy to stop.”

That brings us to our final predictions for the 2012 Oscar year.  My friends, it has all come down to this.

Still, only two films have hit the significant guilds for Best Picture:

SAG=Screen Actors Guild, WGA=Writers Guild, PGA=Producers Guild, DGA=Directors Guild, CAS=Cinema Audio Society, ADG=Art Directors Guild

Lincoln–SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, DGA, CAS, ADG,CAS
Argo — SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, DGA, ADG, BAFTA

After that, you have the only film to hit all of the industry awards, though without the all-important SAG ensemble is:

Zero Dark Thirty – SAG, PGA, DGA, WGA, ADG,CAS, BAFTA

Life of Pi – PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA

After that, Les Miserables – SAG ensemble, PGA, DGA (not eligible for WGA), ADG, CAS, BAFTA

Silver Linings Playbook–SAG ensemble, PGA, WGA

I am predicting these in order of most likely to win.  I may change up my predictions though. Just be warned.

78 correct out of 98 possible

Best Picture
Lincoln

Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alt. Skyfall in the 10th slot, Or The Impossible
8/9

Best Directing
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Alt. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
2/5

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Alt. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
4/5

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alt. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4/5

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master, Leonardo DiCaprio, Django
4/5

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Alt. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
4/5

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Moonrise Kingdom
Middle of Nowhere
Alt. The Master
4/5

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Lincoln
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
5/5

Best Animated Feature
Frankenweenie
Brave
Wreck-it Ralph
Paranorman
The Painting
4/5

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Intouchables
A Royal Affair
Beyond the Hills
War Witch
3/5

Best Documentary Feature
The Gatekeepers
Searching for Sugarman
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
The Imposter
4/5

Best Music (Original Score)
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
Alt. Anna Karenina
3/5

Best Music (Original Song)
Skyfall
Suddenly
Song of the Lonely Mountain
Freedom
Learn Me Right
2/5

Best Film Editing
Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Alt. Les Miserables
5/5

Best Cinematography
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt. Argo
4/5

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi

The Hobbit
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Alt. Cloud Atlas
5/5

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Hitchcock
3/5

Best Makeup
Lincoln
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
2/5

Best Sound Mixing
Skyfall
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
3/5

Best Sound Editing
Skyfall
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Brave
Lincoln
Alt. Life of Pi
2/5

Best Visual Effects
Life of Pi
The Hobbit
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Cloud Atlas
3/5

 

How Many Oscar Best Picture Nominees will there be? A Poll!

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The State of the Race: The Heart is a Lonely Hunter

136 Comments

  1. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    I hate to sound overbearing but it’d be really cool if we could have the results from the AD Oscar ballot simulation before the actual Oscar nominations… Pleeeaaaaseee!!!

  2. Gage Creed
    January 9, 2013

    I’m very curious to know who will co-announce the nominees tomorrow. I suspect it will probably be some actress nominee from last year (it’s been like that ever since Tom Sherak became president). So it could be Glenn Close, Rooney Mara, Meryl Streep, Octavia Spencer, Melissa McCarthy, Michelle Williams…
    And I’m also curious to see how Tom Sherak will pronounce “Quvenzhané Wallis” in case she’s actually nominated. My ears hurt when I heard how he pronounced “Hazanavicius” last year…

  3. Bob Burns
    January 9, 2013

    no Hoffman?

  4. Loyal
    January 9, 2013

    I don’t expect to see many pundits, if any, switching from Lincoln to Argo because of the BAFTA snub for Spielberg. It’s a voting anomaly, not a harbinger. And why switch now when Lincoln will likely lead all nominees in overall nominations tomorrow?

  5. CJ
    January 9, 2013

    It’s a common mistake made by Sasha, but Spielberg has been directing films for 40 years – not 30.

  6. Christophe
    January 9, 2013
  7. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    Ouch… sorry GagE!

  8. AD
    January 9, 2013

    Gage I thought that Emma Stone and Seth McFarlane where annoucing tomorrow. I think that Bradley Cooper will be in instead of Joaquin Phoenix and Riva instead of Wallis. Ideally I would prefer Wallis and Riva over Watts, and Phoenix over Cooper.

  9. JP
    January 9, 2013

    Cool predictions.

    Sasha’s sort of no guts is on the success of the BOTSW actors. It could happen.

    I also agree Joaquin is scoring the nomination and it’s so tough to figure who will he bump out. My bets are that it’s Danzel but…

    Question: Does anyone here remember ANY acting category since each of you have started following awards season that reached nominations day with ONLY one lock?

  10. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    And Tom Sherak is no longer president of the Acad, it’s Howard Koch now.

  11. @Gage Creed
    January 9, 2013

    It’s Emma Stone and Seth MacFarlane.

  12. db
    January 9, 2013

    hoffman’s in contention to win the category let alone be nominated. you gotta put him in there! also chastain could definitely edge lawrence.

  13. david leary
    January 9, 2013

    I’m goin to give three no guts no glory predictions they won’t happen but what the hell Colin Farrell gets a best actor nom for seven psychopaths Liam neesom also gets a best actor nom for the grey and like I’ve been saying juno temple gets a best actress nom for little birds there you go no guts no glory

  14. rufussondheim
    January 9, 2013

    Some of Sasha’s nominations seem batshit crazy right now. Like Dwight Henry.

    But, then, there are surprises every year.

    Like how everyone is coming up with explanations as to why Spielberg didn’t get the BAFTA nod. Sasha’s most curious new one is that England got rid of slavery before the US so the subject material may not be as urgent. But I thought a great film is a great film regardless of the subject matter. I still like the most obvious explanation, they didn’t think Lincoln was good enough. But then partisans often don’t see the truth that’s staring at them in the face.

    It’s funny that some of the most ardent anti-Les Miz people use the explanation that any enjoyment from Les Miz comes from the source material not Hooper’s direction. And that’s supposedly a cogent arguement.

    But then these same people will argue that Lincoln deserves the win because of the subject and the iconic status of the central figure and how much he means to us Americans.

    Does anyone else see the disconnect?

  15. Alex Brando
    January 9, 2013

    Not putting Phillip Seymor Hoffman in Suporting is ridiculous… (just saying)

    Also, they are probably gonna nominate The House I Live In for documentary, it’s Eugene Jareky with one of the strongest docs in years. Check it put yo..

  16. Jerry
    January 9, 2013

    “Because usually the whole membership does the nominating.  They release a shortlist which had asterisks by names that each branch voted for — the whole of the membership would then pick nominations.  It’s quite possible both Spielberg and Hooper might have gotten in if the whole of the membership voted on the long list.”
    >>>Sasha, I think it is the reverse. It used to be the longlist released first with astrisks denoting names specifically selected by each chapter. Then it went to the whole membership to select only five names for the short list AKA the nominees. This year I believe they just had the chapters doing the short list straight with no input from the larger membership for specific categories like directing, costume. Here is the piece on the changes: http://www.deadline.com/2012/06/bafta-shifts-nominations-date-tweaks-voting-procedures/
    >> Bravo to BAFTAS members for leaving out Hooper, he didn’t deserve it this year and they were object enough to leave him out even though he is one of their own. Although Spielberg should have been included I have no complaints about those who were chosen instead since they were all deserving.

    >>>Knew they would fall for SKYFALL, Les Miz and BEst exotic merigold hotel only surprise was the lack of Daniel Craig, Maggie Smith, Watts and major love for Argo including the Affleck BA nom. Overall I’m happy with the nominees not sure if can make any Oscar predictions though.

  17. micahs
    January 9, 2013

    I really really hope that dicaprio doesnt get snubbed. Ive seen django twice now and his performance is awesome. I still think he has a chance to get in. Id like to see him win but I honestly think TLJ will pick it up and honestly. And I couldnt agree with that more but at the same time….dicaprio was just as good but in a different way.

  18. JP
    January 9, 2013

    Sasha probably forgot PSH. He’s in definitely regardless of what they do with the film.

    Another thing: the Razzies nods are out. Their Return of the King leads the nominations with 11. They waited until the last film to honor Twilight.

  19. Gage Creed
    January 9, 2013

    Christophe and AD, thanks for the information

  20. Elton Almeida
    January 9, 2013

    I’m brazilian and I live in Brazil. Here, like in the whole West, we study some things about USA History and I knew Lincoln’s history, his political importance, his iconic figure etc. Then, I watched “Lincoln”. I must confess that I’m not a Spielberg fan. I usually think his movies are too much tacky melodramatic. But I really loved “War Horse” because it pays tribute to Hollywood Golden Era and filmmakers like John Ford and Victor Flemming. I felt in “Lincoln” the same kind of language that Spielberg used in “War Horse”, and I loved it and I think it’s totally appropriate. “Lincoln” it’s a good film, everything in it is good. But maybe for non-americans it’s only a good movie. I didn’t embrace it. I didn’t care about the plot (I’m a black man and I live in the last country in the world to abolish slavery, so I really think it talks about something very important. But not in a very interesting way). I was not giving a fuck about Lincoln or his clichés family dramas.

    Perhaps “Lincoln” it’s that kind of historic drama that foreigns can’t really enjoy.

  21. Sasha Stone
    January 9, 2013

    I don’t know, Bob. I feel torn. I just don’t know what they’ll make of The Master but I have a feeling they will like it a lot better than SAG did. Whom should I dump?

  22. Winston
    January 9, 2013

    Would rather not see Wallis nominated.

  23. January 9, 2013

    Jerry, is that not what Sasha wrote about the BAFTA voting?

    I think there’s maybe a little of Lincoln’s popularity in America reflected in Spielberg’s BAFTA snub. But I think they just tend to have slightly alternative choices there. Last year, they nominated Lynne Ramsay. Tomas Alfredson and Nicolas Winding Refn were also in. Martin Scorsese was not.

    Perhaps “Lincoln” it’s that kind of historic drama that foreigns can’t really enjoy.

    Silly generalisation. I enjoyed it, and I’m a ‘foreigner’. I don’t feel very foreign, though.

  24. steve50
    January 9, 2013

    “Does anyone else see the disconnect?”

    No, but then I’m not in either the Lincoln camp or the Les Mis camp, for the simple reason that both tend to promote themselves with revered source material. One is obviously better made than the other, but then supporters for the musical itself are incredibly passionate, which is missing from the Lincoln supporters (out loud, anyway).

    Somebody has obviously tied ZDT’s shoelaces together and Argo has come alive after an obviously very refreshing nap.

    Life of Pi is not a frontrunner, but it is an outstanding piece of work by a truly great director, so I’m happy to remain sitting in my little boat, watching the world go by.

  25. Darko
    January 9, 2013

    sorry, but the only lock for the Master is Hoffman! No idea why you thinm he won’t be in. He has hit every marker.

  26. Bryce Forestieri
    January 9, 2013

    As of now or more like yesterday, LINCOLN is the underdog! ARGO and LES MIZ are the frontrunners. Seriously. What are the chances of LINCOLN not being the film with the most nominations tomorrow? That would be almost fatal.

  27. January 9, 2013

    Sasha, I don’t think you should dump anyone for Philip Seymour Hoffman. Those are your choices, stand by them! Alex, it’s not ridiculous. There’s a fair chance that they won’t like The Master at all. However, I don’t see Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams both being nominated, and Hoffman being snubbed. He’s the strongest contender of the three by far.

    I can see a Dwight Henry nomination happening for sure. I could even put it on a par with Robert De Niro. Sasha, if I was to dump someone from your list, it’d be De Niro. Not feeling it. I’m feeling Javier Bardem atm. Not literally, alas…

  28. Winston
    January 9, 2013

    Lincoln to me played like a stage play or the type of film you would see in the late 1930s. That isn’t a bad thing, and it emphasized the dialogue and the acting, which were sharp. But it may have come across as more of an actor’s film as opposed to a director’s film.

  29. Carl
    January 9, 2013

    I hope they give the awards to first time winners. Dicaprio was so against-type in Django which shouldnt be snubbed. Tommy Lee Jones always robs Oscars. His Hope Springs performance was even better than the Lincoln role.

  30. david leary
    January 9, 2013

    Anybody think Bill Murray will get nominated for Hyde park on the Hudson he certainly deserves it

  31. Sasha Stone
    January 9, 2013

    Sasha’s sort of no guts is on the success of the BOTSW actors. It could happen.

    Why is it batshit crazy? God, I hate that term. Beasts was not eligible for the SAG so we only have the Globes or BFCA as precursor and they’ve failed us before. I think he has a really good shot at a nom.

  32. phantom
    January 9, 2013

    Sasha Stone

    “Or it could also be that Lincoln is decidedly American and the Brits just don’t really get it.”

    Yet they showered it with 10 nominations, the most any film received this year ? Also, isn’t Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained all ‘decidedly American’, too and they DID make the BD-cut. Usually the BAFTA can be accused of playing favorites with their fellow countrymen AND voting for them instead of worthy American contenders, but definitely NOT this year. They have 3 (!) American directors in BD (Affleck, Bigelow, Tarantino), telling VERY American stories, and not ONE British director (no Hooper, Mendes etc.), so I think it’s more than fair to say they were VERY objective this year, even if for some reason Spielberg was shockingly snubbed. I would have preferred Spielberg instead of Tarantino whose film I didn’t enjoy as much as most people, and you’re right, Lincoln is Spielberg’s best film since…well…to me, his best film PERIOD.

    Also, interesting fact : Ben Affleck is the odd man out in the BAFTA Best Actor lineup…the last two of those (Gary Oldman, Javier Bardem) DID manage to sneak into the Oscar top5…and Argo is not only universally loved with an unblemished track record (even got the SAG Ensemble nod, so the most dominant Academy branch loves it, too), it also had spectacularly succesful Academy screenings…I think Affleck could easily pull a M$B in Best Actor. Question is, if Affleck makes the cut, Hawkes OR Washington will be snubbed ? Maybe both if Phoenix sneaks in, too ? Argh, Best Actor is so strong this year, I literally couldn’t pick five.

  33. Sasha Stone
    January 9, 2013

    Phantom, did you read the rest of my quote?

    “Or perhaps they figured Spielberg and Hooper were givens and that they ought to put their votes where they thought they would matter more – or maybe they just didn’t like Lincoln, those British directors. Who knows. No one can say for sure what it will do until one of the movies in the race wins something significant.”

  34. Free
    January 9, 2013

    My Predix

    Here’s the link to my article
    http://mandawg9.hubpages.com/hub/Oscar-Predictions-2013

    or you can just find them below. . .

    BEST PICTURE (8 Nominees)
    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    DIRECTOR
    Argo – Ben Affleck
    Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
    Les Miserables – Tom Hooper
    Life of Pi – Ang Lee
    Zero Dark Thirty – Kathryn Bigelow

    ACTOR
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    John Hawkes – The Sessions
    Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
    Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
    Denzel Washington – Flight

    ACTRESS
    Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
    Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
    Naomi Watts – The Impossible

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Alan Arkin – Argo
    Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
    Samuel L. Jackson – Django Unchained
    Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams – The Master
    Sally Field – Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
    Helen Hunt – The Sessions
    Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Amour
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Silver Linings Playbook

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    Brave
    Frankenweenie
    ParaNorman
    Rise of the Guardians
    Wreck-It Ralph

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    Chasing Ice
    The Gatekeepers
    The Imposter
    The Invisible War

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    The Education of Mohammad Hussein
    Inocente
    Mondays at Racine
    Open Heart
    Redemption

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    Amour
    The Intouchables
    Kon-Tiki
    A Royal Affair
    Sister

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Anna Karenina
    The Deep Blue Sea
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master

    COSTUME DESIGN
    Anna Karenina
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Mirror Mirror

    FILM EDITING
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    The Master
    Zero Dark Thirty

    MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
    Hitchcock
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Lincoln

    MUSIC SCORE
    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Hithcock
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln

    ORIGINAL SONG
    “Hashishet Albi” – Where Do We Go Now?
    “Not Running Anymore” – Stand Up Guys
    “Skyfall” – Skyfall
    “Still Alive” – Paul Williams: Still Alive
    “Suddenly” – Les Miserables

    SHORT FILM – ANIMATED
    Adam and Dog
    Fresh Guacamole
    Head Over Heels
    Paperman
    Tram

    SHORT FILM – LIVE ACTION
    A Fabrica (The Factory)
    Asad
    Curfew
    Death of a Shadow (Dood von een Schaduw)
    When You Find Me

    SOUND EDITING
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    SOUND MIXING
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    Cloud Atlas
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    John Carter
    Life of Pi
    Marvel’s The Avengers

  35. phantom
    January 9, 2013

    Here is a little Pre-Oscar Summary, two charts, one of the critics’ winners and another of the Guild-Bafta-GoldenGlobe-Critics Choice nominations :

    http://www.awardscorner.blogspot.hu/2013/01/pre-oscar-summary.html

  36. Daveylow
    January 9, 2013

    It’s possible that Oscars and BAFTAs are going in different directions this year. Life of Pi is popular in the UK so it’s conceivable that Pi will get a major prize from BAFTA in a few weeks. That won’t happen with the Oscars.

  37. Free
    January 9, 2013

    ^ Searching for Sugar Man should be the other doc there. Don’t know why it cut off.

  38. phantom
    January 9, 2013

    Sasha Stone

    Fair enough.

  39. Robert A.
    January 9, 2013

    “Anybody think Bill Murray will get nominated for Hyde park on the Hudson he certainly deserves it.”

    No, he won’t be nominated. Best Actor is overcrowded as it is. Stick to the main six and try to figure out which one gets left off. It’s maddeningly fun! I’m going to predict that Phoenix makes it onto the Oscar slate, so I have to cut one of the boys who got a SAG nod. Obviously I’m not cutting DDL. I used to think maybe Cooper and Jackman were vulnerable, but after BAFTA, it’s looking like their films are going to help carry them into the Final Five. Washington and Hawkes both missed out on BAFTA, but it’s traditional for Denzel to get overlooked by BAFTA, and it’s hard for me to see AMPAS doing the same.

    I think I’ll flush Hawkes because of the low buzz for The Sessions. Not sure if that’s the right call, but my deadline to have these things figured out is fast approaching!

  40. SeattleMoviegoer
    January 9, 2013

    despite all the snipping and wailing on these comment pages, i’m just glad that some good movies from VARIOUS genres are getting recognized this year and MAKING MONEY. i want more historical epics, dramas and musicals. that used to be the norm and when they are regularly made and distributed, you get good ones. look at the proficiency and craft that we get in today’s comic book films. movies are more than just scifi extravaganzas and teen-boy fantasies and fast-edited thrillers and unromantic romantic comedies. this year gives me hope that we can still get great movies for adults. remember adults? educated adults used to be the target audience.

  41. Bob Burns
    January 9, 2013

    who to dump indeed?

    having him alongside DiCaprio makes more sense, IMO.

  42. Elton Almeida
    January 9, 2013

    Ana Maria Bahiana, a brazilian journalist who works in US and who is a Golden Globe voter, said in her blog that she talked with a few Academy members and the five films that they cited most was “Argo”, “Lincoln”, “Zero Dark Thirty”, “Les Miserábles” and “Silver Linings Playbook”.

  43. PJ
    January 9, 2013

    Ben Affleck only nonwinner of frontunners. Lock him in for everything.

  44. Jorge
    January 9, 2013

    If there’s any justice Amy Adams will be snubbed she is ok not Oscar worthy even in the fighter was very average same for Leo , she was phenomenal in doubt

    Dwight Henry will be nominate in supporting mark my words and please wallis is out please understand

    I love Mirren but hope to see her snubbed I don’t see her gettin a lot of number one votes and since Rachel Weisz could have a lot of besides the fact she shares the same publicist with Michelle Williams she could pull off a surprise like Williams did in blue valentine

    It is cotillard or riva not both and I predict riva

    Pls no Ann dowd her campaign is pathetic as well Anne Hathaway please give the Oscar to Sally and if dowd make the cut she better has to win to never see her back

    Pls Nicole Kidman !! I know the film sucks but if Penelope can get a nomination for an awful film Kidman should !

  45. ramiro
    January 9, 2013

    i don’t see why moonrise kingdom would be nominated.

  46. phantom
    January 9, 2013

    The Weinstein-films might be ignored in BD completely, but I wouldn’t worry about them, I think all three of their films (Django Unchained, Silver Linings Playbook, The Master) will receive Best Picture nominations.

  47. kasper
    January 9, 2013

    I think Beasts could get in too. Don’t they like rewarding a movie that the precursors missed out on? And Beasts being ineligible for those other awards has become part of the story. It’s the type of movie people are passionate about. It’s a movie that I can see people proudly placing at their number one spot and I say this as not caring for the movie. So yes, I say Beasts makes it.

  48. Gage Creed
    January 9, 2013

    @Elton Almeida

    Not surprised.

  49. JP
    January 9, 2013

    “Sasha’s sort of no guts is on the success of the BOTSW actors. It could happen.

    Why is it batshit crazy? God, I hate that term. Beasts was not eligible for the SAG so we only have the Globes or BFCA as precursor and they’ve failed us before. I think he has a really good shot at a nom.”

    Don’t think it’s crazy. As I’ve said, it could happen. It’s undoubtedly risky because those noms will have to happen instead of, for example, Helen Mirren, who just seems an automatic nominee, or the Weinstein Company guys in Supporting Actor. I have both Wallis and Henry ranked 7 on my predictions. Wallis deserves so hard this nomination. She and Emanuelle Riva would make this Actress category that I once thought weak as a historical one: the youngest and the oldest with two bravura performances.

  50. Gage Creed
    January 9, 2013

    Boy, oh boy, these predictions sure are tough this year! I feel dizzy already trying to figure them out!!

  51. unlikely hood
    January 9, 2013

    I can’t believe Sasha did it again! This is at least Sasha’s FIFTH mainpage post to say that Spielberg has had a 30-year career. Sasha – E.T. was not his first film!!!! 40 years.

    I am now past correcting and actively looking for reasons for this “mistake.” We know Sasha is in the tank for Lincoln, so how does this help? 30 years makes him seem younger, because they don’t want to give it to a guy who’s career is over? 30 is lucky, because the #4 is bad luck in China?

    Anyone have any better ideas? I’m fascinated by this ongoing misinformation.

  52. kasper
    January 9, 2013

    @Jorge I don’t think Ann Dowd’s campaign is pathetic. I think it’s smart and brave of her. She doesn’t have the publicity muscle as the big stars do. I mean it’s not as pathetic as Melissa Leo, who didn’t need any of that stuff since she was going to win anyway. And speaking of Melissa Leo, whom I’ve loved since Homicide, I really thought Amy Adams had the harder role in the Fighter, elevating the typical “girlfriend” role for sure, definitely more subtle. She’s great in The Master as well, but her subtlety might come off as not having much to do.

  53. kasper
    January 9, 2013

    @unlikelyhood. I do the same thing. I still think the 90s was ten years ago. The other day for example, I was shocked to realize that Clueless came out almost 18 years ago!!!

  54. CJ
    January 9, 2013

    I am too unlikely hood (I pointed it out as well). It’s gone past the point of a simple mistake with as many times as people have pointed it out.

  55. Kim
    January 9, 2013

    I remember in 2008, Sasha had seen Revolutionary Road and wrote that this could very well get Leo his first Oscar. Last year Kris Tapley tweeted, after seeing Eastwoods´s movie, that J. Edgar would get Leo an Oscar.
    But “DiCaprio is Oscar-worthy” usually means “not even a nomination”. So I´m not optimistic, to put it mildly.

  56. rufussondheim
    January 9, 2013

    Maybe she’s just lazy, unlikely hood. When she made the same error again, I was like “oh boy!” knowing it would draw your complaint.

    Maybe she has a crush on you and this is here way of expressing it. Maybe you should sneak a frog into her lunch box.

  57. rufussondheim
    January 9, 2013

    DiCaprio gave a performance that would work wonders on the stage. He was definitely playing to the back row. The movie itself is just an over the top festival of excessiveness, heck they even overstuffed Jamie Foxx’s pouch!

  58. Jules
    January 9, 2013

    I would love to see DiCaprio get a nom tomorrow. My favorite “Django” performance. He made Calvin Candie his own– buffoonish, childish, slimy and vile. I know he won’t get nommed but given all the times Leo has been overlooked, it would be nice.

  59. brendon
    January 9, 2013

    It’s cripplingly depressing to see two terrible movies (Beasts, Les Mis) as this year’s “passion” films for voters.

    Why can’t Oscar voters become passionate for, say, Holy Motors or The Deep Blue Sea?

  60. Kim
    January 9, 2013

    I think I read somewhere that if DiCaprio gets snubbed, he´s one of only three NBR best supporting actor winners to be snubbed by AMPAS.
    And if Django gets a best picture nomination, that´s like the fourth time DiCaprio´s picture gets in, but not him, isn´t it? Titanic, The Departed, Inception, Django. Is that common, or is it some sort of record, Sasha?

  61. mecid
    January 9, 2013

    Lincoln sweeps Iowa Film Critics Association awards:

    Best Film
    “Lincoln”

    Best Director
    Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

    Best Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”

    Best Actress
    Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”

    Best Supporting Actor
    Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”

    Best Animated Film
    “Brave”

    Best Film Yet to Open in Iowa
    “Amour”

  62. unlikely hood
    January 9, 2013

    Fair enough fellas. And Rufus – way to bring it back to ET. Clever.

    This time tomorrow, all the buzz will be about the Best Picture exclusion of any of these seven:

    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark 30

    and/or…the Best Picture inclusion of anyone else. I like how confident people are in Beasts and The Master, because tomorrow’s buzz will either be sweet, sweet validation or a splash of cold water. Ditto Amour, though I don’t see as much over-confidence there.

    Anything else – I’m looking at you, Skyfall and Moonrise Kingdom – is decidedly left-field and will be worth its own article here and at every other Oscar site. And if that turns out to be The Impossible, I will officially link to my stated reasons for that on this site the other day.

    Anyone not betting on that core 7 is a braver wo/man than I.

  63. Daniel Kenealy
    January 9, 2013

    My final predictions for what they’re worth:

    Best Picture
    1. “Argo”
    2. “Lincoln”
    3. “Zero Dark Thirty”
    4. “Les Miserables”
    5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
    6. “Life of Pi”
    7. “Django Unchained”
    8. “Amour”
    9. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
    —–
    (If) 10. “Skyfall”

    Best Achievement in Directing
    “Amour” (Michael Haneke)
    “Argo” (Ben Affleck)
    “Life of Pi” (Ang Lee)
    “Lincoln” (Steven Spielberg)
    “Zero Dark Thirty” (Kathryn Bigelow)

    On the hunch that musicals often struggle in this category, and Haneke has many admirers (BAFTA went there!).

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
    Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”)
    John Hawkes (“The Sessions”)
    Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”)
    Joaquin Pheonix (“The Master”)
    Denzel Washington (“Flight”)

    On the hunch that Cooper will be a ‘Giamatti-esque easy to overlook despite its brilliance’ performance.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
    Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
    Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”)
    Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
    Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”)
    Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)

    Because this category has been so up-in-the-air I’m simply betting on quality shining through and for boring fillers like Watts and Mirren to be snubbed. I really hope they are …

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
    Alan Arkin (“Argo”)
    Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
    Dwight Henry (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”)
    Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”)

    My no guts, no glory prediction given that all others seem a bit out of place (Bardem, McConaughey) or vote-splitters (Django guys). I was toying with Ewan MacGregor …

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
    Amy Adams (“The Master”)
    Sally Field (“Lincoln”)
    Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)
    Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”)
    Nicole Kidman (“The Paperboy”)

    On the hunch that Dowd just hasn’t been seen by enough people and that Smith will be seen boring, predictable, and not all that great.

    Best Achievement in Cinematography
    “Anna Karenina” (Seamus McGarvey)
    “Les Miserables” (Danny Cohen)
    “Life of Pi” (Claudio Miranda)
    “Lincoln” (Janusz Kaminski)
    “Skyfall” (Roger Deakins)

    I see no reason to quibble with the ASC here.

    Best Achievement in Costume Design
    “Anna Karenina” (Jacqueline Durran)
    “Les Miserables” (Paco Delgado)
    “Lincoln” (Joanna Johnston)
    “Mirror Mirror” (Eiko Ishioka)
    “Snow White and the Huntsman” (Colleen Atwood)

    There’ll be some wildcards here …

    Best Achievement in Film Editing
    “Argo” (William Goldenberg)
    “Les Miserables” (Chris Dickens)
    “Lincoln” (Michael Kahn)
    “Silver Linings Playbook” (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers)
    “Zero Dark Thirty” (William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor)

    I reckon Silver Linings will surprise. Tim Squyres and Ang Lee movies generally often struggle here.

    Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
    “Les Miserables”
    “Lincoln”
    “Men in Black 3″

    They’ll embrace Baker and the two ‘biggies’.

    Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
    “Anna Karenina” (Dario Marianelli)
    “Argo” (Alexandre Desplat)
    “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Benh Zeitlin, Dan Romer)
    “Life of Pi” (Mychael Danna)
    “Lincoln” (John Williams)

    Not too sure here.

    Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)
    “Brave” (Learn Me Right)
    “Django Unchained” (Ancora Qui)
    “Les Miserables” (Suddenly)
    “Paul Williams Still Alive” (Still Alive)
    “Skyfall” (Skyfall)

    Ditto!

    Best Achievement in Production Design
    “Anna Karenina”
    “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
    “Les Miserables”
    “Lincoln”
    “The Master”

    A rogue technical nom for The Master, on merit.

    Best Achievement in Sound Editing
    “The Avengers”
    “The Dark Knight Rises”
    “Django Unchained”
    “Skyfall”
    “Zero Dark Thirty”

    Some summer movies and three obvious picks.

    Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
    “Django Unchained”
    “Les Miserables”
    “Lincoln”
    “Skyfall”
    “Zero Dark Thirty”

    Sub out the summer movies and replace them with prestige.

    Best Achievement in Visual Effects
    “The Avengers”
    “Cloud Atlas”
    “The Dark Knight Rises”
    “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
    “Life of Pi”

    Boring but likely.

    Best Animated Feature Film
    “Brave”
    “Frankenweenie”
    “ParaNorman”
    “Rise of the Guardians”
    “Wreck-it Ralph”

    No comment.

    Best Documentary Feature
    “The Gatekeepers”
    “The Imposter”
    “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
    “Searching for Sugar Man”
    “This Is Not a Film”

    Ditto.

    Best Foreign Language Film
    “Amour” (Austria)
    “Beyond the Hills” (Romania)
    “The Intouchables” (France)
    “Sister” (Switzerland)
    “War Witch” (Canada)

    Ditto.

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    “Argo” (Chris Terrio)
    “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
    “Life of Pi” (David Magee)
    “Lincoln” (Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb)
    “Silver Linings Playbook” (David O. Russell)

    Could easily see Pi missing out to Perks.

    Best Original Screenplay
    “Amour” (Michael Haneke)
    “Django Unchained” (Quentin Tarantino)
    “The Intouchables” (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
    “Moonrise Kingdom” (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)
    “Zero Dark Thirty” (Mark Boal)

    Surprise snub for The Master, which rambled oh so terribly (IMHO).

    Nominations Tally
    “Lincoln” – 13
    “Les Miserables” – 10
    “Zero Dark Thirty” – 7
    “Argo” – 6
    “Life of Pi” – 6
    “Amour” – 5
    “Beasts of the Southern Wild” – 5
    “Django Unchained” – 5
    “Silver Linings Playbook” – 5
    “Anna Karenina” – 4
    “The Master” – 4
    “Skyfall” – 4
    “The Avengers” – 2
    “Brave” – 2
    “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” – 2
    “The Intouchables” – 2
    “The Sessions” – 2

    HAPPY NOMINATIONS EVE :-)

  64. Jerry Grant
    January 9, 2013

    Lincoln is my #1 for the year but stating objectively that it’s his best movie in 20 years is really iff-y, because “Saving Private Ryan” will still probably go down in history as a greater film, more important, more influential, and all that.

    My BP predictions look just like Sasha’s, except no “Moonrise Kingdom”. 8 nominees:
    Argo
    Beasts
    Django
    Les Mis
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings
    ZDT

    I predict John Hawkes will NOT get in for Best Actor. Having seen “The Sessions” and all the others, I seriously think Joaquin and Bradley have better chances. And it won’t be an example of “oh they forgot the little guy.” Hawkes was great, but you simply can’t leave out Joaquin, and I think people really really want to applaud Bradley Cooper for this movie.
    DDL
    Hugh Jackman
    Denzel
    Joaquin
    Bradley Cooper

    Best Director: Oh the big question. Tom Hooper or Quentin Tarantino? When it’s such a tight year, I feel I have to stick to the policy: WHAT MOVIE DO THEY LIKE MORE. And that will be “Les Mis,” much to the chagrin of this website.
    Affleck
    Bigelow
    HOOPER
    Lee
    Spielberg

    Supporting Actor: Now this is a really fun category this year. Gotta go with fun predictions, like Sasha’s Dwight Henry. I feel I have stakes in it. Because WHY ON EARTH WOULD ANYBODY NOMINATE ALAN ARKIN WHEN THIS IS SUCH A STRONG YEAR. Seriously, I cannot believe it. I’ve seen “Argo” twice and I love his role, but… why not Bryan Cranston by that logic? John Goodman? My god I’ll never understand it. Still, he’s been nominated in all the precursors.
    Alan Arkin, sigh. what a waste
    Hoffman
    T.L. Jones
    Christoph Waltz
    …and for my last wild prediction…SAMUEL L. JACKSON !!! It could happen.

  65. Nik
    January 9, 2013

    Well, I think Sasha might be very close with her predictions. Personally I’d like to have seen Helen Mirren and especially Anthony Hopkins nominated for Hitchcock, but that’s not going to happen.
    I hope Rise of the Guardians will be in, and it’s welcome to take Wreck-It-Ralph’s spot in my book.
    I hope Hoffman and Kidman will make it as well. Both are great.
    But what a year it is…

    I’m rooting for Lincoln (brilliant!). But is Zero Dark Thirty really losing traction? You guys base that on the missing SAG ensemble nod or is word of mouth killing it? The torture debate on the film hasn’t started in Europe yet, and won’t until the movie opens. But is that the reason? It seemed like it was gonna overtake Argo and Lincoln only days ago…

  66. Casey
    January 9, 2013

    THANKS SASHA for still believing in Ann Dowd!

  67. kasper
    January 9, 2013

    @Kim: Don’t forget Gangs of New York.

  68. January 9, 2013

    heck they even overstuffed Jamie Foxx’s pouch!

    No, rufus, I don’t believe they did…

    http://daily-dilf.tumblr.com/

  69. January 9, 2013

    BEST PICTURE

    Zero Dark Thirty
    Lincoln
    Life of Pi
    Argo
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Les Miserables
    Amour
    Django Unchained
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    The Dark Knight Rises [NO GUTS NO GLORY!]

    ALT: Moonrise Kingdom

    BEST ACTOR

    Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
    John Hawkes – The Sessions
    Denzel Washington – Flight
    Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

    ALT: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
    Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
    Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
    Naomi Watts – The Impossible

    ALT: Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
    Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
    Alan Arkin – Argo
    Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

    ALT: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
    Sally Field – Lincoln
    Amy Adams – The Master
    Helen Hunt – The Sessions
    Maggie Smith – Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

    ALT: Ann Dowd – Compliance

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
    Ben Affleck – Argo
    Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
    Michael Haneke – Amour
    Ang Lee – Life of Pi

    ALT: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Lincoln
    Life of Pi
    Silver Linings Playbook
    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Argo

    ALT: Beasts of the Southern Wild

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Zero Dark Thirty
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Amour
    Moonrise Kingdom

    ALT: Looper

    My full predictions are here: http://grapevinepics.com/oscar-nom-predix/

  70. danemychal
    January 9, 2013

    Sasha – I know he’s your “Alt” so you aren’t completely forgetting him, but there’s no way Bradley Cooper’s name is NOT getting called out tomorrow morning for Best Actor. He’s probably 2nd or 3rd after DDL or DDL/Jackman. He has hit every pre-cursor and many voters probably felt that it really went hand-in-hand with nominating Lawrence. Like it or not, Denzel is vulnerable as is Hawkes.

  71. RJ
    January 9, 2013

    Anne Hathaway is a lock for the WIN in Best Supporting Actress!!!!

  72. Jules
    January 9, 2013

    @ Kim, U guess the best thing for DiCaprio is not to have either Tapley or Stone suggest he’s getting nominated.

  73. PiersD.
    January 9, 2013

    Smells like “spread the love year” to me.

  74. January 9, 2013

    I’m with the folks here who are predicting 8 nominees now and no Moonrise Kingdom. It feels right. Hell, as upset as it would make me, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were only 7 and Beasts got shut out as well.

    Lincoln and Life Of Pi tie for the most noms, with Les Mis and Argo close behind. Argo gets the surprise Actor nom. Washington and Hawkes get bumped for Affleck and Phoenix. Cotillard out, Riva in. Wallis replaces Mirren. Ann Dowd makes it into Supporting. Perks Of Being A Wallflower shows up in Adapted Screenplay. Amour shows up in Best Director in that 5th slot joining Spielberg, Bigelow, Lee and Affleck.

  75. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    @paddy
    nice little link! almost better than your blog, almost… yeah you should totally add nsfw pics, that drives a lot of traffic.

  76. danemychal
    January 9, 2013

    Also, I agree with everyone PSH is getting a nomination. If you have Phoenix in there, it especially makes sense that you list PSH too. Since you don’t have Cooper on there, you might as well drop DeNiro to make room for Hoffman. I think one hand washes the other on that one — if they don’t nominate Cooper, you won’t see DeNiro either. I’d say keep DeNiro and remove Dwight Henry, but I realize he is one of your wildcard surprise picks.

    Personally, I think Henry out and PSH in then Phoenix out and Cooper in. But that’s me.

  77. Winston
    January 9, 2013

    Would like to see Cooper nominated. Maybe it’s time to make best acting categories more flexible (minumum 5, maximum 7).
    Wallis hopefully is not nominated. If you can reasonably debate whether a six year old was actually acting, I’m not sure what the fervent need is to nominate said six year old for the highest honor in her craft. She didn’t learn lines. Didn’t step into the shoes of another person. Was below the age of self-awareness. Was often filmed without even being aware she was in front of a camera. The persona to credit is really the director. If we are going to start giving traction to notions like intuitive instinct or unconscious emotional intelligence, we can go back and nominate Benji or Lassie while we are at it because a six year old (any six year old) is only slightly more aware. Maybe do what the Bafta awards do and create a fan voted best up and comer award. Still remember the Castle-Hughes nomination for Whale Rider as a low point.

  78. January 9, 2013

    I’ll start doing porno reviews, Christophe.

  79. January 9, 2013

    I disagree. I believe this is not a wide open year for a best picture win:

    Lincoln has this in the bag. Mind, I only enjoyed it. Sally Field, Tommy Lee but specially James Spader carry the movie brilliantly for me. But Daniel Day Lewis channels Ben Stiller’s Zoolander all the way through and its just annoying.

    Yet: Box office hit, spectacular cast, great directing from an acclaimed director, good script, good cinematography: we’re in for a sweep of the major awards. Sadly, because most other films in the running are so, so much better.

    T.

  80. kasper
    January 9, 2013

    What do you mean he channels Zoolander? Not even close.

  81. Joseph
    January 9, 2013

    A lot of people like Beasts so Dwight Henry is a good call. But Hoffman will not be out. Bradley Cooper is also definitely in. He’s in 2nd or 3rd.

  82. JP
    January 9, 2013

    DDL Lincoln in the same sentence as Ben Stiller Zoolander…. woooow! Armond White is likely proud now.

  83. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    @paddy
    now, seriously, I like reading your comments, always full of interesting insights and I’d go to your blog more often if you went beyond the usual announcements/reviews to include opinion pieces/analyses in the vein of what you write on AD. but I realize this is already tremendous work and you may not have the time to write more stuff.

  84. Scottish Jellyfish
    January 9, 2013

    I’m still sticking with the safe bets. Argo, Les Mis, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty. Anything else enters hopeful territory, and I don’t want to step on any toes. I say let them have the faith that their film at the very least has a chance to be nominated…somewhere…anywhere…on that large list.

  85. Kim
    January 9, 2013

    @Jules – I like the way you think:-)

  86. keifer
    January 9, 2013

    I can see Javier Bardem and Judi Dench getting supporting nods for “Skyfall”, thereby knocking out 2 on Sasha’s list, although which 2 I’m not sure.

  87. Bryce Forestieri
    January 9, 2013

    Damn! Jamie Foxx is super hot for a guy in his mid 40′s!
    Seriously. Who is the frontrunner if Tim Hooper isn’t nominated? ARGO right?

  88. Josh
    January 9, 2013

    I am starting think we could see some ‘shockers’ in the acting categories. Not huge shockers but surprises nonetheless.

    I am not sure DeNiro makes it
    I am not sure Adams makes it
    I wouldn’t be surprised if both Hawkes AND Hunt aren’t nominated…that movie really has no buzz whatsoever.
    Don’t know what but I think an out of left field nom like Frances McDormand for Promised Land could happen

  89. January 9, 2013

    ty Christophe! I would write opinion pieces if I thought anyone would read them! Perhaps I might start!

  90. desmond
    January 9, 2013

    Life of Pi no ADG ?

  91. A.J
    January 9, 2013

    I think you’re predictions are excellent. Just the right mix of locks, almost locks, and surprise nominees. You surely won’t be 100% right but your reach choices are definitely within the realm of possibility.

  92. AnthonyP
    January 9, 2013

    The trick is just waiting till tomorrow

  93. david leary
    January 9, 2013

    Here are my predictions for the Oscars in the acting group on the movies I’ve seen:

    Best actor:
    1.Daniel day Lewis. Lincoln
    2.Bradley Cooper. silver linings playbook
    3.Colin Farrell. seven psychopaths
    4.Liam neesom. the grey
    5.Ben affleck. zero

    best actress
    1.Jennifer Lawrence silver linings playbook
    2.Jessica chastain. Zero dark thirty
    3 juno temple little birds
    4. Naomi watts the impossible
    5. Marion cotillard rust&bone

    supporting actor
    1.Tommy Lee Jones
    2 christoph walz django unchained
    3.Brian cranston. argo
    4 Chris coy. little birds
    5 Robert deniro. silver linings playbook

    supporting actress
    1 Anne Hathaway. les miserables
    2 Sally field. Lincoln
    3 Amy Adams. trouble with the curve
    4 Kay panabaker. little birds
    5 Helen hunt. the sessions

    these are my picks from the movies I’ve seen

  94. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    @paddy
    you don’t have to beat yourself into writing anything too complicated or time-consuming. Just write whatever’s on your mind, follow your inspiration and have fun with it! Even if readers don’t flock there’s no regrets to be had if you enjoy the process.

  95. mecid
    January 9, 2013

    Meanwhile Lincoln leads Awardsdaily Stimulated Oscar Ballot Nomination.

  96. Mike
    January 9, 2013

    We will really know absolutely nothing until nominations tomorrow. So to distract from the anxiety of everything, lets have some fun. The last 10 Best Picture nominees were, “Chicago”, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”, “Million Dollar Baby”, “Crash”, “The Departed”, “No Country For Old Men”, “Slumdog Millionaire”, “The Hurt Locker”, “The Kings Speech”, and “The Artist”. According to new academy rules there can be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees. Of these 10 how many would get nominated for Best Picture? If it was all 10, what would be the winner? Not what SHOULD win, but what WOULD win. I think it would come down to ROTK Vs. Departed with ROTK ultimately still coming out on top. I feel like that was one of those movies that would win in any year. Sash and the rest of the readers, what do you think the scenario would be?

  97. rufussondheim
    January 9, 2013

    Of those ten, I would pick The Hurt Locker.

  98. The Japanese Viewer
    January 9, 2013

    “…FIFTH mainpage post to say that Spielberg has had a 30-year career…. E.T. was not his first film!!!! 40 years…. Anyone have any better ideas? I’m fascinated by this ongoing misinformation.”

    unlikely hood,

    You’ve made a fair observation.

    Well, if you are still interested….

    In my opinion, with regards to Spielberg filmography and how could possibly come up with the magic number “30 years” despite the obvious, perhaps might intentionally start factoring it in from The Sugarland Express, Spielberg’s feature film directorial debut, which was released in 1974. I am aware that if that’s the case, it makes for 38 years – 8 years different from the said figure originally mentioned. However, at least I’d like to give a benefit of doubt provided that The Sugarland Express be the case in truth on one’s mind; that is, somehow one might feel more comfortable rounding it all up from 38 to 30 (years) when writing; perhaps the figure zero, which to some might look like an oval shape, is the real culprit, the accomplice of one’s mood, something that reminds one of maternity or the most delicate, feminine side of theirs, etc.

    I know it sounds absurd, but I am just trying to make sense of it regardless.

    The point is, I find it hard to infer that […] really believes that ET, or Poltergeist, was the maestro’s first film.

    -

    By the way, my own version if you like, is 44 years, 41 years or 38 years, give or take, depending upon an angle of choice. Cheers.

  99. Jerry Grant
    January 9, 2013

    Mike: fun question! I would immediately eliminate “Chicago,” “Crash,” “King’s Speech,” and “The Artist”, because they would not merit director nominations in comparison to the rest: Jackson (“ROTK”), Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby”), Scorsese (“Departed), Coens (“No Country”), Boyle (“Slumdog”) and “Hurt Locker” (Bigelow), with one of those getting the shaft, my guess might actually be for Scorsese. All in all, I agree: ROTK would probably win BP. In general, LOTR stands out as being the biggest and most obvious award winner of the 21st century.

  100. Jerry Grant
    January 9, 2013

    But if I were to pick my personal BP nominees for the 21st century, they would be:

    Adaptation
    Brokeback Mountain
    Cache
    Children of Men
    Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
    Moulin Rouge
    Mulholland Drive
    Talk to Her
    There Will Be Blood
    The Tree of Life*

    * = winner

  101. Christophe
    January 9, 2013

    Hesitating between TKS and ROTK, but I think I’d go with The King’s Speech.

  102. Mike
    January 9, 2013

    Jerry Grant: Thanks!! Yea that makes sense. I wonder if Chicago would be eliminated bc at the time it really impressed everyone and it was one everyone was still obsessed with musicals after “Moulin Rouge” but your right in that comparatively it doesn’t measure up against the other directors. I think of the directors you listed, Eastwood and Bigelow are the most vulnerable to Scorcese and Rob marshall. I think of the BP nominees, Crash, M$B, TKS and The Artist are all the most vulnerable to not being nominated.

  103. Tero Heikkinen
    January 9, 2013

    Guys, when you say out loud that you’ve been a fan of Spielberg throughout his whole career, it makes you look younger when you say the career is 30 and not 40 years long. Very simple. It’s a girl thing.

  104. Tero Heikkinen
    January 9, 2013

    That, or copypasting the previous article and adapting it for whatever news just came out.

  105. superkk
    January 9, 2013

    Man, I cant believe tomorrow is the day. So its come down to this…

    Oscar Wishful Thinking: would love to see Ann Dowd nominated. Seriously her performance was just too good. it would be very dissapointing if she was snubbed. Cmon oscars lets get it right.

    Samuel L. Jackson. holy hell he was amazing and its a fucking shame hes being overlooked. Just irks my soul. Get it right.

    Other honorable mentions: Gina Gershon, Ezra Miller, Logan Lerman, Garrett Hedlund… I know these people wont be nominated but their performances definitely were some of my favorites this year. would make my day if they made it in!

    Oh and I thought Helen Hunt and Tommy Lee Jones were amazing too but we all know theyll be nominated anyway.
    Thats really it for acting.

    I would love to see a Perks Best Pic Nom and also one for Silver Linings. Django had better be in there. Maybe even some TDKR love??

    I think the most dissapointing thing this year is how so many precursors have just been following suit with what everyone else is doing especially when the performance is beyond overrated. Its really annoying but who knows they could surprise us tomorrow. -Or Not-

  106. McGregor
    January 9, 2013

    Best Picture
    Argo
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables

  107. danemychal
    January 9, 2013

    Way to go out on a limb there, McGregor (btw, there has to be at least 5 BP noms).

  108. McGregor
    January 9, 2013

    Oops.

    PREDIX

    BEST PICTURE
    Argo
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Ben Affleck, Argo
    Katherine Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
    Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    (If you are truly predicting Spielberg to miss, I think you are slightly crazy.)

    BEST ACTOR
    Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    Denzel Washington, Flight

    BEST ACTRESS
    Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Emanuelle Riva, Amour
    Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Naomi Watts, The Impossible

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Robert Deniro, Silver Linings Playbook
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    EWAN MCGREGOR, THE IMPOSSIBLE <<<< NGNG

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams, The Master
    Ann Dowd, Compliance
    Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Sally Field, Lincoln

  109. Jerry Grant
    January 9, 2013

    Dear mcgregor: Nice try putting your own name in the supporting actor column. We’re on to you, ewan

  110. JP
    January 9, 2013

    McGregor,

    If someone is predicting Spielberg to miss or the person is totally insane or just knows nothing about awards.

  111. JMC
    January 9, 2013

    Of all your predictions, I hope you are most right about Dwight Henry getting nominated. Most wrong about Anna Karenina missing cinematography.

  112. tr
    January 9, 2013

    I’m sick and tired of previous winners and perennial nominees being favored over great actors who can’t seem to get a leg up no matter how good or against-type they are…yes, I’m talking about Leo.

    How on gods green earth is Waltz getting more attention from the critics and precursors than Dicaprio? Waltz has

    1. Already won an Oscar
    and
    2. He’s not stretching AT ALL in Django

    Yes, it’s a good performance, but it’s not a WOW performance. Dicaprio as Calvin Candie is WOW performance, and everybody’s ignoring him. Not only is everyone ignoring him, but the pundits and bloggers aren’t even talking about how everyone is ignoring him. This, despite the fact that he was considered a frontrunner for the WIN months ago.

  113. Aaron
    January 9, 2013

    @ Winston.

    I agree with you regarding Beasts of the Southern Wild. I’m a fan of the film and I enjoyed Quvenzhane Wallis in it, although I don’t understand what world we live in when people proclaim her superior to Rachel Weisz, Emmanuelle Riva, or Mary Elizabeth Winstead, for example…you know, actors who know their craft, did the research, created a character, and made magic. You know good and well a 5-year-old girl did not go through these pains to give the performance she did, and no matter how natural she is–much of the credit must be given to Benh Zeitlin.

    As far as Dwight Henry, I DO think he could sneak into supporting actor like Sasha predicts. I’m currently however predicting Ewan McGregor to be the WTF nomination, considering he, Naomi, and the film itself has gotten such a devoted, Hollywood following. I don’t think Robert De Niro is as “locked” as people claim he is. He has missed both GLOBE and BAFTA nominations–two major ones. I would not be surprised if he was snubbed and replaced by Javier Bardem or one of the actors from Django Unchained, or Dwight Henry.

  114. Robert A.
    January 9, 2013

    “(If you are truly predicting Spielberg to miss, I think you are slightly crazy.)”

    24 hours ago I probably would have agreed with you, but since Spielberg was left off the BAFTA director’s list, I no longer think it’s crazy to think he’ll miss out. Do I personally think he’ll get ignored by Oscar? No. Am I predicting he will get nominated? Yes. But BAFTA is evidence that Spielberg isn’t the unquestionable lock in this category that some people have been assuming.

  115. The Dude
    January 9, 2013

    Hoffman is, alongside TLJ, the heavy favorite to WIN and you’re leaving him out?

    Sorry Sasha, but, yet AGAIN your love for some movies clouds your judgement entirely. There’s a snowball chance in hell of Henry being nominated, and, no, Walis almost certainly won’t be nominated either.

  116. Aaron
    January 9, 2013

    @TR…I agree regarding Waltz. I thought he was good, but it was basically a variation on his Landa character except this time he had some strange acting tics that got on my nerves at times.

    DiCaprio was great and really captured the vile, degrading, inhumane, yet seductively charming nature of Calvin Candie (I agree with what someone said earlier about Leo “playing to the crowd”…yes, the performance did veer a bit stage dramatic at times).

    But the real standout was Samuel L. Jackson in what was truly a BALLSY performance. He was hilarious, evil, original, disturbing…a really fascinating role and probably one of the best of Jackson’s career. If I had to pick one of the Django guys for an Oscar nomination, it would definitely be him.

  117. tr
    January 9, 2013

    Didn’t feel Leo was stagey at all? Believe it or not, people like that existed and still do exist. For me, Jackson was the one playing it over-the-top. His performance was entertaining, but it veered close to SNL-sketch type broadness.

  118. January 9, 2013

    Best Picture: (I’ll go with 9)

    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. Zero Dark Thirty
    4. Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Les Miserables
    6. Life of Pi
    7. Django Unchained
    8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    9. Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Director:

    1. Ben Affleck, Argo
    2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    3. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    5. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Actor in a Lead Role Male:

    1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    3. John Hawkes, The Sessions
    4. Denzel Washington, Flight
    5. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Actor in a Lead Role Female:

    1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    4. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
    5. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role Male:

    1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Alan Arkin, Argo
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role Female:

    1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    2. Sally Field, Lincoln
    3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    4. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
    5. Amy Adams, The Master

    Best Original Screenplay:

    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Moonrise Kingdom
    3. The Master
    4. Django Unchained
    5. Amour

    Best Adapted Screenplay:

    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Life of Pi
    5. The Perks of Being a Wallflower

    Best Foreign Film:

    1. Amour
    2. The Intouchables
    3. A Royal Affair
    4. No
    5. War Witch

    Best Animated Film:

    1. Frankenweenie
    2. ParaNorman
    3. Brave
    4. Wreck-It Ralph
    5. Rise of the Guardians

    Best Documentary:

    1. Searching for Sugar Man
    2. How to Survive a Plague
    3. The Invisible War
    4. The Gatekeepers
    5. The House I Live In

    Best Film Editing:

    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Argo
    3. Lincoln
    4. Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Skyfall

    Best Cinematography:

    1. Life of Pi
    2. Skyfall
    3. Lincoln
    4. Zero Dark Thirty
    5. Django Unchained

    Best Production Design:

    1. Les Miserables
    2. Anna Karenina
    3. Lincoln
    4. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    5. Django Unchained

    Best Visual Effects:

    1. Life of Pi
    2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    3. Prometheus
    4. Cloud Atlas
    5. The Avengers

    Best Costume Design:

    1. Anna Karenina
    2. Les Miserables
    3. Mirror Mirror
    4. Lincoln
    5. A Royal Affair

    Best Makeup and Hairstyle:

    1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    2. Lincoln
    3. Les Miserables

    Best Score:

    1. Life of Pi
    2. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    3. Lincoln
    4. Argo
    5. Anna Karenina

    Best Sound Editing:

    1. Life of Pi
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Lincoln
    4. The Dark Knight Rises
    5. Skyfall

    Best Sound Mixing:

    1. Les Miserables
    2. Life of Pi
    3. Skyfall
    4. Zero Dark Thirty
    5. The Dark Knight Rises

    Best Song:

    1. Skyfall, Skyfall
    2. Suddenly, Les Miserables
    3. Touch the Sky, Brave
    4. Song of the Lonely Mountain, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    5. Pi’s Lullaby, Life of Pi

  119. unlikely hood
    January 9, 2013

    Thanks the Japanese Viewer for making a go of it! She knows perfectly well that Duel was released in theaters around the world (though not here). I like the idea of a ’rounding error’ (as a double entendre, perhaps)

    Tero – Good point.

    I agree that Jones and Hoffman are the favorites in BSA, but if Waltz misses a nod and either DiCaprio or his Uncle Tom get one – and won’t split votes with each other – look out. Those guys haven’t won and they’re duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuue. Morgan Freeman didn’t need too many precursors in 2004; once they saw he was on the ballot, they jumped at the chance.

  120. Jerry Grant
    January 9, 2013

    @unlikely hood:
    Exactly right on the state of the Supporting Actor race. If neither DiCaprio or Jackson gets in, then it will probably be Tommy Lee Jones again. But if either do…. the Academy (and many others) will be eager to see either stand on that Oscar stage.

  121. rufussondheim
    January 9, 2013

    My NGNG pick in any category is Eddie Redmayne for Les Miz. I think those three actors will split the support for Django, all are better than the overrated DeNiro performance. I hope at least one gets in over that guy.

    Jones, Hoffman and Arkin appear to be locks, but that leaves room for two more, and there are a lot of people who could surprisingly get a spot.

  122. Bruce L
    January 9, 2013

    Why am I getting this unsettling vibe about Spielberg getting snubbed tomorrow????

    Hey Ryan,

    You have Edward Lachman’s phone #? I need to get a hold of that hat he donned while photographing Mildred Pierce!!!

  123. Bruce L
    January 9, 2013

    For Luck.

  124. Jules
    January 9, 2013

    Quote: “DiCaprio was great and really captured the vile, degrading, inhumane, yet seductively charming nature of Calvin Candie (I agree with what someone said earlier about Leo ‘playing to the crowd’ yes, the performance did veer a bit stage dramatic at times).”

    I think what’s missed by everyone regarding “Django” is that everyone is “playing” a role in the film. Some you are told about, i.e. Foxx and Waltz pretend to be “mandingo buyers.” But DiCaprio and Jackson are also role playing — which may be why they both seem “stagey” to some. You see elements of the real Candie and Stephen on and off, when they are alone or when confronted with something they don’t like. It’s not until the end, however, that you understand what is the truth about each man.

    Tarrentino has done this in other films, most notably “Reservoir Dogs” (the Roth character).

    Given that, I think DiCaprio and Jackson were the standouts here, in particular DiCaprio. There is an arch to his character — not see in Waltz’s Schultz. You understand what Candie’s motives are. I never felt that with Schultz.

    It’s a shame that Waltz will get nominated, and not DiCaprio, who I think was the better of the two (even if I’m in the minority). It was a far more risky role for a star like DiCaprio and I wish more people gave him credit for that.

  125. Chris138
    January 9, 2013

    Eh, what the hell, here are my predictions…

    BEST PICTURE:

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Alternatives: The Master, Skyfall, Amour

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
    Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

    Alternatives: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Michael Haneke (Amour)

    BEST ACTOR:

    Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
    Denzel Washington (Flight)

    Alternatives: John Hawkes (The Sessions), Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Jack Black (Bernie)

    BEST ACTRESS:

    Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
    Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

    Alternatives: Noami Watts (The Impossible), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

    Alan Arkin (Argo)
    Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

    Alternatives: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

    Sally Field (Lincoln)
    Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
    Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
    Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

    Alternatives: Amy Adams (The Master) Judi Dench (Skyfall), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Lincoln
    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Alternatives: Life of Pi, Les Miserables

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    Amour
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Alternatives: Looper, Flight

  126. January 9, 2013

    It even smells different.

    You know the photos you chose look like the three of them are reacting to a fart. XD

    As far as predictions for tomorrow go, I got zilch. I don’t know what the hell is going to happen. I hope it’s not predictable but it probably will be in the end. I’ll just have to see what happens and then figure out who to root for after the dust settles.

    As far as TWC goes, they also had LAWLESS which is why it was never going to get play although it was amazeballs. And the only movie I saw Harvey Weinstein pushing in TV interviews was THE INTOUCHABLES. And wasn’t there a big push early for BULLY? Yeah they had a lot to juggle this year.

  127. January 9, 2013

    p.s. Jennifer Lawrence just won a People’s Choice Award over Anne Hathaway. Just sayin’.

  128. g
    January 9, 2013

    I’ve made my dinner for the critics choice awards tomorrow! It’s going to be a great day, my birthday, Oscar nominations, and an award show! Woohoo!

  129. January 9, 2013

    I made some Oscar predictions for my blog, it would be nice if you guys read them/commented some opinions. Thanks.

    http://thescreenteen.blogspot.com/2013/01/final-oscar-predictions.html

  130. Patrick
    January 9, 2013

    Just a last minute thing that I wanted to point out. Here’s a list of all the years when the Oscars used a preferential voting system to pick the Best Picture winner:

    1934: It Happened One Night – 5 (2nd most)
    1935: Mutiny On The Bounty – 7 (most)
    1936: The Great Ziegfeld – 7 (most)
    1937: The Life Of Emile Zola – 10 (most)
    1938: You Can’t Take It With You – 7 (most)
    1939: Gone With The Wind – 13 (most)
    1940: Rebecca – 11 (most)
    1941: How Green Was My Valley – 10 (2nd most)
    1942: Mrs. Miniver – 12 (most)
    1943: Casablanca – 8 (3rd most)
    1944: Going My Way – 10 (most)
    1945: The Lost Weekend – 7 (2nd most)
    2009: The Hurt Locker – 9 (most)
    2010: The King’s Speech – 12 (most)
    2011: The Artist – 10 (2nd most)

    I’ve listed the number of nominations that the Best Picture winner received, as well as where it ranked in terms of nominations (in brackets). Notice that:

    For 10 of the 15 years, the Best Picture had the most nominations.
    For 4 of the 15 years, the Best Picture had the 2nd most nominations.
    For 1 of the 15 years, the Best Picture had the 3rd most nominations.

    Takeaway:
    Since the Best Picture winners are picked via preferential voting, and since the nominations for all categories are also picked via preferential voting, the Best Picture winners tend to be among the nomination leaders. I predict that Lincoln, Les Mis and Life Of Pi will lead the nominations this year.

  131. Jason Travis
    January 9, 2013

    Harvey Weinstein says DiCaprio is getting a nomination. That’s pretty assuring in my book. He also won the NBR and is a Globe nominee. Remember that voters are voting based on number 1, 2- placements. Do we really think Arkin and De Niro will generate that much support over DiCaprio? Perhaps, but I think a lot of people are just being sheep and ignoring DiCaprio when they are in for a nice little surprise tomorrow. Get ready to have egg on your face.

  132. Prakshid Meshram
    January 10, 2013

    #OSCARS My The 85th Annual Academy Awards Nominations Prediction:
    Best Picture
    Argo
    Beasts Of The Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Director
    Ben Affleck “Argo”
    Kathryn Bigelow “Zero Dark Thirty”
    Tom Hooper “Les Miserables”
    Steven Spielberg “Lincoln”
    Ang Lee “Life of Pi”

    Best Actor in a Leading Role
    Bradley Cooper “Silver Linings Playbook”
    Daniel Day-Lewis “Lincoln”
    John Hawkes “The Sessions”
    Hugh Jackman “Les Miserables”
    Denzel Washington “Flight”

    Best Actress in a Leading Role
    Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”
    Marion Cotillard “Rust & Bone”
    Jennifer Lawrence “Silver Linings Playbook”
    Helen Mirren “Hitchcock”
    Emmanuelle Riva “Amour”

    Best Supporting Actor
    Alan Arkin “Argo”
    Robert DeNiro “Silver Linings Playbook”
    Leonardo DiCaprio “Django Unchained”
    Philip Seymour Hoffman “The Master”
    Tommy Lee Jones “Lincoln”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Nicole Kidman “The Paperboy”
    Sally Field “Lincoln”
    Anne Hathaway “Les Miserables”
    Helen Hunt “The Sessions”
    Maggie Smith “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Argo
    The Perks of a Being Wallflower
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Original Screenplay
    Amour
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Animated Feature
    Brave
    Frankenweenie
    Rise of the Guardians
    ParaNorman
    Wreck-It Ralph

    Best Documentary Feature
    Bully
    The Gatekeepers
    How To Survive a Plague
    Searching for Sugar Man
    The Imposter

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Amour (Austria)
    The Intouchables (France)
    War Witch (Canada)
    No (Chile)
    A Royal Affair (Denmark)

    Best Cinematography
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Film Editing
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Life Of Pi
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Production Design
    Anna Karenina
    The Hobbit
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    The Master

    Best Costume Design
    Anna Karenina
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Mirror Mirror

    Best Makeup and Hair
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables

    Best Original Score
    Anna Karenina
    Argo
    Beasts of The Southern Wild
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln

    Best Original Song
    Brave- Touch The Sky
    Life of Pi- Pi Lullaby
    Les Miserables – Suddenly
    Django Unchained – What did that to you
    Skyfall – Skyfall

    Best Sound Mixing
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Sound Editing
    The Avengers
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Life of Pi
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Visual Effects
    The Avengers
    The Dark Knight Rises
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Life of Pi
    Skyfall

    Nominations for the 85th Annual Academy Awards® will be announced by the show’s host, Seth McFarlane & Emma Stone on Thursday Jan.10 at 5.30am PT & 7.00pm IST

  133. January 13, 2013

    Here were our predictions for this year. We were shocked as well!!!

    Final Pre-Nomination Oscar Predictions http://themoviefrog.blogspot.com/2013/01/final-pre-nomination-oscar-predictions.html?spref=tw … … … Marvel at my foresight! Mock my ignorance!

  134. January 13, 2013

    Stay Tuned for the http://www.THeMovieFrog.com Oscar Winning predictions as we were as surprised as everyone else with the nominations. In the mean-time, please check out our movie reviews as well as the predictions for the nominations.

    The Movie Frog latest review: Of Snubs and Triumphs http://themoviefrog.blogspot.com/2013/01/of-snubs-and-triumphs.html?spref=tw … My in-depth reaction and analysis regarding the recent nomination announcements!

    As always Thank You Daily Awards for being a TRUE source for information for the Movie and Film industry…. To you from your Friends at The Movie Frog in Atlanta, GA…

    Also Thank You Tyler Perry Studios…

  135. BrandStrategyGuru
    January 23, 2013

    I predict Lincoln will win the SAG ensemble, the PGA and the Oscar

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