The Oscars are the Land of Oz, complete with illusionary finery and the jarringly ordinary old man behind the curtain. The Yellow Brick Road gets us there. All of the characters and traumas along the way are all part of this crazy season. Winners and losers, all in the name of the game. The momentum usually builds, with each nomination announcement whipping up the frenzy of expectations, dashed hopes, and ongoing victories all culminating in — at last, the Oscar nominations.
The frenzy has given way to general unease this year as everyone kind of looks around at how different everything looks all of a sudden. Oscar ballots were turned in first — before the PGA, WGA and DGA nominations. Those guideposts have been kicked to the wind and Oscar voters are going rogue. No one knows how this experiment will play out but for us Oscar watchers it’s like we were chasing something that suddenly just isn’t there.
Now, as we wait for the Oscar nominations on Thursday, the DGA announcements on Monday seem almost as an afterthought. Do we really care who gets nominated for the DGA? Does it even matter now? Do any of them matter now? Are we actually, for once, going to have to look at the guild honors as honors unto themselves and not stepping stones that lead to Oscar? I think we just might.
Tuesday, the DGA will neither confirm nor deny what the Oscar voters will do. All they can do is tell us is what the 14,500 DGA voters did and wait and see if those match what the 400 or so Academy voters have already done in the Director category. Typically, the DGA and Oscar and Oscar don’t match up 100%. The DGA is better for predicting Best Picture (when there were only five) than it ever has been for predicting a 5 for 5 match in Best Director.
Clusterfuck be damned, we are still diving right in.
We are pretty sure that the leaders in this category are locked for Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty and Ben Affleck for Argo. Probably Ang Lee for Life of Pi is the fourth.
That leaves one slot open at the DGA, and possibly one slot open at the Academy, though it’s theoretically possible Ang Lee will be popular with one group but not the other. Put it this way, if he isn’t nominated it will be a bit of a shocker since he’s won two DGA awards and one Oscar.
Ang Lee being announced as one of the five DGA nominees would confirm what we suspected about the race but it would also lend legitimacy to Life of Pi more than any other previous announcement thus far.
But more in need of that legitimacy are the three names vying for that fifth slot – and they are David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained and Tom Hooper for Les Miserables.
All of these directors have previously been nominated for DGA awards except Ben Affleck. This will be his first DGA nod for director and probably his first Oscar nod as director. Other actors turned directors got lucky on their first time out. Robert Redford, Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson all won Director and Picture the first time they were nominated in the director category at the Oscars. For Redford and Costner, they won their first and only DGA nomination. Affleck could follow in those footsteps, or he could be like George Clooney, Ron Howard, Clint Eastwood and other more tried and true actors-turned-directors who get nominated, and sometimes win.
Argo is one of those films that’s very hard to hate. It’s not a punishing sit and is the one with the least baggage, and sadly, the Oscar race for Best Picture is often like a political election. Votes gets divided up between people who vote for what they love and people who vote for what they can tolerate. Someone who backs Paul Thomas Anderson and has no favorite in the five nominated films might pick Argo because it isn’t Lincoln and it isn’t Zero Dark Thirty and it isn’t Les Miserables. There are likely going to be many independents, if you will, who will embrace Argo even if it isn’t their number one. Funny, tense, moves along in a clip — probably what Argo has going for it most is that it’s a movie about a movies — a movie that says movies are the universal language and even Iranians who hate Americans still love our movies.
It says much about Kathryn Bigelow’s work that she is once again in the running for Best Director. This time it certainly doesn’t feel like they’re just going to reward her as a woman, as many accused them of doing during The Hurt Locker days. This proves that, no, she is truly thought of as one of the boys. She has always maintained that she would prefer to be thought of as a filmmaker rather than a “woman filmmaker.” You can’t really make history twice but Bigelow could do just that by become the only woman to win a second DGA award and a second Oscar for director.
There is no getting around the torture controversy. I’ve never really seen a film ride so high in the race and then get hit so hard with a political controversy quite like Zero Dark Thirty. What does that mean in the end? It’s hard to say. I like to think that it still comes down to the movie. And this movie is a dark thriller with no easy answers. It doesn’t soothe its audience — and it doesn’t provide a victorious ending. It is very well written, directed and acted — and a film that says much about our past, present and future. It is complex and in fact, it has officially become a film that can’t really be talked about without talking about the torture. If you say you love Zero Dark Thirty and you’re aware of the content you have to then decide how you feel about torture, the capture of Bin Laden, the truth, the CIA and everything else. It isn’t just a movie anymore. It also seems kind of trivial to even talk about Oscars up against such a serious topic, which makes wrapping your arms around Zero Dark Thirty complicated.
Ang Lee would be looking at his fourth DGA nomination. Life of Pi is not a film about “finding God on a boat.” It’s a film about human existence, really, making sense of this mortal coil. It is at once the Buddhist credo, that life is suffering, as much as it is a glorious celebration of the spectrum of beauty the natural world provides. Life of Pi takes you under but then brings you back, revives you and sends you back out on the street as though you’ve experienced something deeply profound. That’s powerful stuff, though not for everyone. The target demo seems to be having trouble with this one, as they are having trouble with Lincoln. They like movies like The Master and can tolerate Argo. But they’re a long way from emotions deeply felt. Thus, Life of Pi is a tricky sell. Those of us who love it, however, love it with unbridled passion.
Tom Hooper would be looking at his second nomination after having won in 2010. Les Miserables is an even tougher sell than Life of Pi and is one of those movies that you’re either swept up in or you’re not. Another one of those this year was Cloud Atlas. The difference between the two is that Les Miserables had a built-in, multi-generational audience that has waited years for it to hit the big screen. They’re bringing all of that context with them. It will just depend on how many voters are among the people who loved Les Miserables. For those who love it they will tell you that it’s a sad movie about struggling, unwashed masses. Other themes people are taking away from it, or projecting onto it, are its positive take on adoption, feminism and as a living memorial to AIDS. I saw none of these things but Les Mis appears to be a template that works on a variety of levels for many people. It is the most divisive film in the race.
David O. Russell would be looking at his second nomination. Silver Linings Playbook is one of those movies that many people love regardless of their age, sex, economic status or language even. It is the only love story in the bunch and has the most desirable actress in Hollywood starring in it. This is one of those movies, like The Artist, like The King’s Speech, where a man’s ego is on the line. Everyone in the film, especially the women, eventually helps him prop his ego back up and then he can believe in himself. This is apparently a very popular motif among Oscar voters. Is it because they all feel like failures and these movies make them feel like winners? Is it because they have to vote for characters they want to see win? Either way, Silver Linings is the movie I hear people talking about most. It’s got strong word of mouth and remains every bit the crowd-pleaser it was when it won the audience award in Toronto.
Quentin Tarantino only just joined the DGA but even still has been nominated twice. This would be his third. Amid so many gloomy films with deep, heavy themes, Django Unchained offers the opposite: a total release. The music, the funny moments and the ultimate bloodshed, Django is one of the more unforgettable films in the race, I’d say, though it isn’t easy to sit through, particularly in the last twenty minutes. Like Lincoln, it brings our history and memory of slavery back to the surface. It has been caught up in some controversy from the African American community and from people who think it goes too far with its graphic violence. For me, the best thing about the movie is Jamie Foxx. Also, Tarantino can direct the shit out of a movie.
And that brings us to someone who might be dubbed the King of the DGA, Steven Spielberg. Spielberg has been nominated by the DGA 10 times and has won three of those, along with also having received a Lifetime Achievement Award. Spielberg is both the most awarded and most nominated director in the Feature film category in the history of DGA.
Lincoln is the best film of 2012 in its writing, acting and directing (in my humble opinion). It hasn’t won any major critics awards yet and it may never win a single thing from here on through the Oscars but it really doesn’t change what Lincoln is, what a success it is for Spielberg so late in his impressive, prolific career. In the bubble Lincoln is not what is sexy to film critics. Outside the bubble, Americans are quietly coming out of their homes and driving down to their local multiplex and paying to see a film, something many of them do maybe once a year, if that. To have earned $140 million with a film about the 13th amendment with no special effects, 3-D, or sweeping battle scenes to drive people in. No, this is a movie about people talking. But oh, what they’re talking about!
So yes, in all of the years I’ve been covering the Oscar race I’ve never seen one of these films come along. I missed Titanic and I missed Schindler’s List so I don’t really know if those films were being underestimated the way Lincoln now is. And I don’t even know if the film will win anything. What I do know is that it is the best film of the year and hats off to Steven Spielberg for having directed it.
My predictions for the DGA as follows:
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
I will not be surprised if either Tom Hooper for Les Mis or Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained take that fifth spot. The reason I’m sticking with Russell is twofold.
The Weinstein Co, possibly aiming for their third Best Picture win in a row know that they need David O. Russell to be nominated here to win. Without a DGA nom, it is nearly impossible to win.
Silver Linings Playbook is very very likable by both sexes and across all ages. The DGA, unlike the Academy, are not dominated by straight white dudes. I feel the power of Tarantino and I feel the power of Les Miserables — I know both are very strong contenders here — but I can’t help but think the crowd-pleasing Silver Linings will prevail.
As for the Oscars, David O. Russell also has to get in there if Silver Linings has a shot at winning. Ditto Tom Hooper. The only name I could imagine being bumped is Ang Lee for Life of Pi — and even that doesn’t seem likely to me.
Finally, when we’re talking about the directing category for the Oscars it’s a slightly different ballgame. Michael Haneke or Paul Thomas Anderson could show up there instead of Russell, Hooper or Tarantino.
FEATURE FILM AWARD DGA’S Site
DGA | Oscar
*film nominated/+ won Best Picture at the Oscars
2011
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+ |
Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo* |
Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants* |
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris* |
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Terrence Malick, Tree of Life* |
2010
Tom Hooper The King’s Speech | Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ |
David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network* |
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* |
David O’Russell, The Fighter | David O’Russell, The Fighter* |
Christopher Nolan, Inception* | The Coens, True Grit* |
2009
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ |
Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious* |
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* |
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds* |
Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar* |
2008
Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog+ |
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* |
Gus Van Sant, Milk | Gus Van Sant, Milk* |
David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button* |
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader* |
2007
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Jason Reitman, Juno* |
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
2006
Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen* |
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* |
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine* | Paul Greengrass, United 93 |
Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ |
2005
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain * |
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* |
Paul Haggis, Crash | Paul Haggis, Crash+ |
Bennett Miller, Capote | Bennett Miller, Capote* |
Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich * |
2004
Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways* |
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* |
Taylor Hackford for Ray | Taylor Hackford for Ray* |
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Mike Leigh for Vera Drake |
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ |
2003
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* |
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* |
Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK+ |
Peter Weir, Master and Commander | Peter Weir, Master and Commander* |
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit* | Fernando Merielles, City of God |
2002
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese* |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* | Pedro Almodovar |
Roman Polanski, The Pianist | Roman Polanski* |
Rob Marshall, Chicago | Rob Marshall+ |
Steven Daldry, The Hours | Steven Daldry* |
2001
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+ |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings | Peter Jackson, LOTR* |
Christopher Nolan, Memento | Robert Altman, Gosford Park* |
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down | Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down |
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge* | David Lynch, Mulholland Drive |
2000
Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous | Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot* |
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Ridley Scott, Gladiator | Ridley Scott, Gladiator+ |
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich | Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich * |
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic* |
1999
Frank Darabont, The Green Mile* | Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules* |
Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich | Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich |
Michael Mann, The Insider | Michael Mann, The Insider* |
Sam Mendes, American Beauty | Sam Mendes, American Beauty+ |
M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense | M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense* |
1998
Peter Weir, Truman Show | Peter Weir, Truman Show |
Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line | Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line |
John Madden, Shakes in Love | John Madden, Shakes in Love* |
Steven Spielberg, SPR | Steven Spielberg, SPR |
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful | Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful |
1997
James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets* | Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty* |
Steven Spielberg Amistad | Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter |
Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting | Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting* |
James Cameron, Titanic | James Cameron, Titanic+ |
Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential | Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential* |
1996
Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire* | Milos Forman for The People vs. Larry Flynt |
Joel Coen, Fargo | Joel Coen, Fargo* |
Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies | Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies * |
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient | Anthony Minghella, The English Patient+ |
Scott Hicks, Shine | Scott Hicks, Shine* |
1995
Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas | Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas |
Mel Gibson for Braveheart | Mel Gibson for Braveheart+ |
Ron Howard for Apollo 13* | Chris Noonan for Babe* |
Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility* | Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking |
Michael Radford for Il Postino | Michael Radford for Il Postino* |
1994
Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral* | Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway |
Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption* | Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red |
Robert Redford for Quiz Show | Robert Redford for Quiz Show* |
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction | Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction* |
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump+ |
1993
Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* | Robert Altman for Short Cuts |
Jane Campion for The Piano | Jane Campion for The Piano* |
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day | James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day* |
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence | Jim Sheridan for In the Name Of the Father* |
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List+ |
1992
Robert Altman for The Player | Robert Altman for The Player |
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men* | Martin Brest for Scent Of a Woman* |
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven+ |
James Ivory for Howards End | James Ivory for Howards End* |
Neil Jordan for The Crying Game | Neil Jordan for The Crying Game* |
1991
Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides* | John Singleton for Boyz N the Hood |
Oliver Stone for JFK | Oliver Stone for JFK* |
Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise | Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise |
Barry Levinson for Bugsy | Barry Levinson for Bugsy* |
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs | Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs+ |
1990
Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III | Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III* |
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves | Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves+ |
Barry Levinson for Avalon | Stephen Frears for The Grifters |
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas | Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas* |
Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso | Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune |
For the win only
+also won Best Picture
(best picture that didn’t match director)
2010 | Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech | Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech+ |
2009 | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker+ |
2008 | Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire | Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire+ |
2007 | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ |
2006 | Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ |
2005 | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain* (Crash+) |
2004 | Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood, MDB+ |
2003 | Peter Jackson, Return of the King | Peter Jackson, Return of the King+ |
2002 | Rob Marshall, Chicago | Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Chicago) |
2001 | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+ |
2000 | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic (Gladiator) |
1999 | Sam Mendes, American Beauty | Sam Mendes, American Beauty+ |
1998 | Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan | Steven Spielberg (Shakespeare in Love) |
1997 | Jim Cameron, Titanic | Jim Cameron, Titanic+ |
1996 | Anthony Minghella, English Patient | Anthony Minghella, English Patient+ |
1995 | Ron Howard, Apollo 13 | Mel Gibson, Braveheart+ |
1994 | Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump+ |
1993 | Seven Spielberg, Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List+ |
1992 | Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven+ |
1991 | Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs | Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs + |
1990 | Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves | Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves+ |
1989 | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA) |
1988 | Barry Levinson, Rain Man | Barry Levinson, Rain Man+ |
1987 | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+ |
1986 | Oliver Stone, Platoon | Oliver Stone, Platoon+ |
1985 | Steven Spielberg, Color Purple | Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+ |
1984: | Milos Forman, Amadeus | Milos Forman, Amadeus+ |
1983: | James Brooks, Terms of Endearment | James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+ |
1981: | Warren Beatty, Reds | Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire) |
1980: | Robert Redford, Ordinary People | Robert Redford, Ordinary People+ |
1979: | Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer | Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
1978: | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+ |
1977: | Woody Allen, Annie Hall | Woody Allen, Annie Hall+ |
1976: | John Avildson, Rocky | John Avildson, Rocky+ |
1975: | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
1974: | Frances Coppola, Godfather II | Frances Coppola, Godfather II+ |
1973: | George Roy Hill, The Sting | George Roy Hill+ |
1972: | Frances Coppola, The Godfather | Bob Fosse, Cabaret (Godfather) |
1971: | William Friedkin, The French Connection | William Friedkin, The French Connection+ |
1970: | Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton | Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+ |
1969: | John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy | John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+ |
1968: | Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter | Carol Reed, Oliver+ |
1967: | Mike Nichols, The Graduate | Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night) |
1966: | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+ |
1965: | Robert Wise, The Sound of Music | Robert Wise, the Sound of Music+ |
1964: | George Cukor, My Fair Lady | George Cukor, My Fair Lady+ |
1963: | Tony Richardson, Tom Jones | Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+ |
1962: | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+ |
1961: | Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story | Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+ |
1960: | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | Billy Wilder, The Apartment+ |
1959: | William Wyler, Ben Hur | William Wyler, Ben Hur+ |
1958: | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+ |
1957: | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
1956: | George Stevens, Giant | George Stevens, Giant (Around/World in 80 Days) |
1955: | Delbert Mann, Marty | Delbert Mann, Marty+ |
1954: | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+ |
1953: | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity+ |
1952: | John Ford, The Quiet Man | John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth) |
1951: | George Stevens, A Place in the Sun | George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris) |
1950: | Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve | Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+ |
1949: | Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men | Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives (All the King’s Men) |
1948: | Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives | John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet) |
1947 | Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement | |
1946 | William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives | |
1945 | Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend | |
1944 | Leo McCary for Going My Way | |
1943 | Michael Curtiz for Casablanca | |
1942 | William Wyler for Mrs. Miniver | |
1941 | John Ford for How Green Was My Valley | |
1940 | John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath (Rebecca) | |
1939 | Victor Flemming, Gone with the Wind | |
1938 | Frank Capra, You Can’t Take it With You | |
1937 | Leo McCary, The Awful Truth (The Life of Emile Zola) | |
1936 | Frank Capra, Mr. Deed Goes to Town (The Great Ziegfeld) | |
1935 | John Ford, The Informer (Mutiny on the Bounty) | |
1934 | Frank Capra, It Happened One Night | |
1933 | Frank Lloyd, Calvalcade |
—–And NOT a single essential, genuinely original
or even fresh offering in the entire batch.
Such is the reality of franchise slum mafia Hollywood
these decades on.
2nd January – PGA nominations
3rd January – WGA nominations
4th January – deadline for Academy Award nominations (and they could have been made on-line)
I would say that at least part of them (nominations for the Academy Awards, that is) were delivered after PGA and WGA nominations announcements. That’s obvious.
Only DGA will come to late to have any impact on them.
^ I second what Rufus said.
So glad I was meandering on the Netflix website or I never would have noticed How to Survive a Plague was streaming. They certainly didn’t have it in a prominent location.
And it was just wonderful. Most people, when looking to compare Zero Dark Thirty look to Argo, but they should be looking at How to Survive a Plague. After all, both films center around people fighting against the powers that be to accomplish a goal many thought impossible. And they succeed.
How to Survive a Plague is a wonderful look into the anti-AIDS activism of the late 80’s until 1996, the year a true breakthrough in the treatment of AIDS occurred. It is filled with passion, love, sorrow, anger, disappointment and triumph. This is an important document, it’s the first I’ve seen, on film, the pursuits of the gay activists lobbying the scientific community. It’s informative, entertaining and enriching.
You need to see this film.
“perfect even with its flaws”
Reminds me of Tom Hanks and the kid in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close playing the oxymoron game.
Someone mentioned Django should have been shorter….if you want to make it shorter, while you are at it please make Zero Dark Thirty shorter too. That was just waaayyyyyyyy to long. I loved Django cause it was entertaining and perfect even with its flaws. Through the middle of Zero I had to take an energy drink to stay awake. It was still a good movie, but nothing special. Just Bigelow being Bigelow. Like Tarantino being Tarantino. The difference was Tarantino made an awesome long movie and Bigelow made a good long movie.
I have to agree with Sasha on the matter of Spielberg. The man has fully earned to be named on the DGA shortlist, as his direction of LINCOLN rates among the best five achivements in that category this year without question.
Sasha wrote: “Daveylo – that person is kind of a douchebag, sorry”
I asked him why no Spielberg. He liked the movie but he liked the other directors more. Gosh, now you’re insulting my friends. Not cool at all.
Netflix wins for having Bernie and Take This Waltz streaming. Wish they had more stuff like that!
Since Netflix is amazing at getting documentaries on streaming, I’m really disappointed they haven’t gotten Undefeated (last year’s Best Doc). I’ve been really wanting to see it.
Just discovered that How to Survive a Plague is streamable on Netflix.
Christophe, if you have to ask whether or not you’re a douchebag, there’s a good chance you are one. But especially if you can’t admit that DDL put in at least one of the top 5 lead actor performances this year, thus causing you to list him on your AD ballot.
I’m so over the ZD30 torture fights but this news story is for our friend Mohammed who keeps beating this dead horse:
@YahooNews: Bigelow Calls Torture ‘Reprehensible’ – http://t.co/K29IRron via @YahooNews”
Ryan, at least one cunt was mine. I can still smell it.
I douche before I go out on the pull – can I be number 28????
How to operate douche nozzle: Insert card. Remove card. Type 5-digit zip code. Lift nozzle. Press type of douche. Begin filling horrid cunt.
^some kind of physiological phenomenon, guys?
Paddy, I reckon 3 are yours, 1 is Tero’s and the other mine apparently.
not counting today’s cuntapalooza, only 5 c-words in comments in the past 4 months
If none of those comments are mine, I’m letting myself down.
Lol Reno!
No, a prick needs to be aimed, the cunt is the target!
Yes, if you’ve got a horrid cunt, you need to douche it!!!
Kirsten Stewart is a talentless nasty whore. There! much <3!
How many corrid hunts?
How many corrid hunts?
not counting today’s cuntapalooza, only 5 c-words in comments in the past 4 months
one of those comments was one of yours, Mattoc
(but you weren’t aiming it at anyone)
@Zach
In my opinion, SLP is more of a director’s movie than were Little Miss Sunshine or Juno. It is an auteur’s movie (though it is an adaptation); it is David O. Russell’s idiosyncratic movie language. That’s why I think he has pretty good Directing nomination chances for the DGA and the Oscars. I think that puts it closer to “Lost in Translation”–while SLP is not quite as good as LIT, it is the concentrated personal vision of a writer-director who tells a good story in an idiosyncratic way, and people happen to love it.
What time is the announcement?
Agreed with a majority of the article (locks and all).
However, the guilds merely being an honor unto themselves with no strong indication as to the future of the Oscars is wishful thinking. The biggest one being the DGA. The sad state of the utterly predictable outcome will be very clear tomorrow. Any hope for any left field nomination or “shower of nominations” for that film you (not you in particular) loved and most people didn’t is shot. We’ve all been there before.
@Christophe
Amen. I list Spielberg as my favorite direction of the year, but I certainly don’t think someone who voted Zeitlin, Bigelow, Wes Anderson, Lee, Affleck is a douche.
That said, I agree with Sasha’s lineup:
Spielberg
Bigelow
Affleck
Lee
Russell
(I’ll say I’m hoping Russell gets in. In my opinion, he deserves it.)
Sasha, we love you! Actually it’s really pleasant for me that this is one year when I completely agree with Sasha. Having not yet seen ZDT, I would easily award Lincoln. It’s not that it’s so undeniable, though it’s terrific; it’s that the other contenders, though respectable, all have their flaws.
When I think of SLP at the DGA, I always wonder whether it will be like Little Miss Sunshine (DGA nod, Oscar BP nod, but deservedly no Best Director nod) or Juno (no DGA nod, but BP and Best Director nods, both deserved, especially since other contenders were flawed). Or Lost in Translation or Up in Air (DGA, Best Picture, and Best Director nods, all expected).
It may be a diverse year with major directors in the race, but Django and Les Mis are very flawed. People love SLP and David O. Russell is no Dayton/Faris duo. Tricky!
I love Les Miz the musical but you can’t watch Les Miz the film and seriously nominate Hooper for Best Director. He is out for both the DGA and Oscars. I agree with Sasha’s lineup. I debated Russell vs.Tarantino but left Tarantino out due to the messy final half hour, of course the DGA could choose to overlook that.
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
” For those who love it they will tell you that it’s about struggling, unwashed masses, adoption, feminism and as a living memorial to AIDS. I saw none of these things ”
I’m almost starting to enjoy that you can’t seem to see what all of us who love the show see instantly whether or not we are disappointed in the film. The entire core message of virtually every page of the book and every single song in the whole show not to mention the final line in the death scene is love: Love of child, friend, spouse, family, country, ideals and finally God in whatever form you recognize a divinity or higher cause. “To love another person is to see the face of God.” So of course everyone who loves the show has an individual reaction to it – as individual as the people and causes in their life that they have chosen to love.
Sister Theresa once asked a reporter if he wanted to meet God. When he answered yes, she took him to to hospital to see the nuns cleaning the sores of the lepers. “There He is on that bed”. That’s Les Miserables.
DGA likes Lee but I am not sure of Oscar. AMPAS screwed him for S&S and to a lesser degree, both CTHD and BBM.
I think Russell is solidly in considering his film hit all Guilds except the vaunted art directors guild. I think DGA will vote for Lee and Oscar will go to Tarantino. Though Tarantino being a first time member gives me pause to think they may vote for him and DGA and Oscar will match 5/5.
The nomination should be Benh Zeitlin, Kathryn BIgelow, David O. Russell, Michael Haneke, and Steven Spielberg .Zeitlin will not be nominated but Lee should not be nominated as Beast is much better than pi
DGA:
1. Ben Affleck
2. Steven Spielberg
3. Kathryn Bigelow
4. Ang Lee
5. Quentin Tarantino
OSCAR:
1. Ben Affleck
2. Steven Spielberg
3. Kathryn Bigelow
4. Tom Hooper
5. Paul Thomas Anderson
yeah, uh
Spielberg
Bigelow
Lee
Affleck
Tarantino
I expect the Golden Globe five will make the cut for DGA.
My DGA list:
Bigelow
Spielberg
Tarantino
Lee
Affleck
OSCARS:
Affleck
Spielberg
Bigelow
Anderson
Haneke
Spielberg
Bigelow
Affleck
Lee
Russell
Alt: PTA
also, last year, I would have listed spielberg and his movie war horse if I had been aware of AD back then, bc I liked it way more than Lincoln, I hope that doesn’t make me a double douchebag, does it?
I didn’t list spielberg or anything related to Lincoln on my AD simulation ballot, simply bc I was very disappointed by the movie. I hope I’m not a douchebag, am I?
Perhaps if the voter chose Rupert Sanders for Snow White and the Huntsman as one of his/her five, “kind of a douchebag” might be more applicable.
Perhaps if the voter chose Rupert Sanders for Snow White and the Huntsman as one of his/her five, “kind of a douchebag” might be more applicabl
I understand but a person can only take so much sanitization of language around here. I agree that if any commenter had said what I said they would have been run out of town on a rail and it’s hypocritical of me to say such a thing. And mean. I get all that. My unfiltered impression of that list is that it was annoying to me that it didn’t include Lincoln, Life of Pi, etc. Douche? I suppose that’s harsh — but come on, I’m hoping we can be a little freer with how we talk around here and not always have to be so “polite.”
searching the comments for ‘douche,’ I see 27 readers have called somebody a douche in the past 4 months.
(I have to go all the way back to Jan 22, 2012 to find myself calling Newt Gingrich a ‘douche nozzle’ )
Rufus: “but I still find Django distasteful”
No, you are not the only one. There was no artistry to most of the violence, so it was generally pointless to even show it. And, the abuse of Brunhilde, among others, without establishing a deep emotional connection with the characters/material (considering the subject matter) lacked foresight and taste. Strip the film of its first hour and it’s easily one of the worst, most deplorable movies to come out this year, regardless of Tarantino’s intentions. But, what do I know. One of the shrewdest, most accurate criticisms of the film came from someone who didn’t even see it (Spike Lee).
“I know you readers see things differently but to me, best is best.”
This is based on the presumption that “us readers” don’t believe: “best is best,” leaving the alternative, “best is less than best.”
“But deliberately leaving Spielberg off that list is just annoying.” I’m sure there are some Les Mis, Django Unchained, and Silver Linings fans who are equally annoyed. Or, is there a hierarchy to being annoyed? Was there any evidence that Daveylo’s acquaintance was deliberately being contrary and “deliberately leaving Spielberg off that list”? Or did they simply see an evidence of quality and artistry in five (or more) directors greater than Spielberg this year?
“A bitch, a horrid cunt.” Is this how you see yourself? Because I certainly never said or insinuated the such in all of my years on AD.
When I hear douchebag, I think of someone who cheats on their partner and then lies about it. When you hear it, you think someone who thought that the direction of Lincoln the Movie was sixth best at best. Okay.
“I understand leaving off big names in hopes of getting smaller names in, I totally get that. But I completely pucker at people who are different just to be different. I know you readers see things differently but to me, best is best.’
But you’re assuming, Sasha, that Daveylo’s DGA friend left Spielberg off just because he’s Spielberg and he wanted to make room for smaller names, when in reality, that DGA member could just prefer the directing jobs of Bigelow, Affleck, Lee, Anderson, and Zeitlin. You’re assuming he’s being different just to be different, when he might be (and probably is) voting his honest opinion.
I understand that Lincoln and Spielberg is best for you. But not everyone shares the same point-of-view, and that doesn’t make them douchebags who are just trying to be different. I agree with Paddy–I also wouldn’t put Spielberg in my top five, just because I don’t personally feel his direction merits top five inclusion. That’s my opinion. I don’t think you’re a douchebag for not agreeing with me.
And I meant credibility not credit of course.
Yeah, Spielberg wouldn’t even make my top ten, nor would it on the majority of critics.
Out of 538 lists (on criticstop10) Lincoln only made 190 of those lists. So even ranking it in the top 10 is the minority opinion.
Only Zero Dark Thirty is on the majority of lists, and it’s a bare majority in that it’s 270 out of 538. If this were the presidential election we’d almost have to go to a second ballot!
But heck, why have a diversity of opinion when we can all think lock-step!
@sasha
“best is best”
best to you isn’t necessarily best to someone else! Pls stop taking your own opinions as an objective measure of excellence, they’re just this: opinions! And the opinions of someone else, be it a reader or a voter are just as worthy as yours, no more no less. So pls stop the horrid name-calling that doesn’t give you any credit.
But deliberately leaving Spielberg off that list is just annoying.
Spielberg wouldn’t be in my top five. No better reason other than that I don’t think his direction was among the five best of the year.
Vince, I had to scroll up to see if I missed something.
Yeah, the person didn’t choose Spielberg, must be a massive dick!
Heck, it’s almost like the person put down Bay as his top choice.
“that person is kind of a douchebag, sorry.”
(describing a voter who chose three frontrunners [not all of which are complete locks] and two others with BP-contenders in the mix–five directors with their own unique films.)
Real classy!
Classy? And I was supposed to strive for class when exactly? Dude, I have strong opinions – deal with it. I understand leaving off big names in hopes of getting smaller names in, I totally get that. But I completely pucker at people who are different just to be different. I know you readers see things differently but to me, best is best. Honesty is important – of those, a couple are great choices and a couple aren’t. In my opinion. But deliberately leaving Spielberg off that list is just annoying. Sorry to have offended. No, not a classy person. A bitch, a horrid cunt, sure. I can live with that description.
Online Film Critics Society winners:
http://screenonscreen.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/online-film-critics-society-winners.html
Spielberg, Affleck, Tarantino, Bigelow and Haneke.
Russell as an alternate. Yes, I don’t believe Hooper is in. However, Les Miz will indeed earn a BP nom at the Oscars, wether we like it or not.
I’m not a fan of David O. Russell, so I’m thinking – and hoping – that the 5th slot (I agree with Sasha up to this point) goes to Hooper even though I’m not a fan of him either. Although I found Django entertaining, Tarantino would more likely get recognition for his writing. Hooper gets points for working well with actors. The surprise, I’d say – and the DGA throws curve balls – would be PTA.
No Academy president at the announcement???
Yeah! Front page news! That kind of shit gets traffic!
It’s not particularly relevant to anyone’s life, but people love it lol!
DGA Predictions
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Ben Affleck (Argo)
3. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
4. Tom Hooper (Les Misérables)
5. Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
OSCAR Predictions
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Ben Affleck (Argo)
3. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
4. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
5. Tom Hooper (Les Misérables)
I would be VERY happy if Ang Lee made the cut, I simply don’t feel the kind of buzz/love a critically acclaimed smash hit (500M+ worldwide) should have at this point.
For some reason I don’t see David O. Russel, either, haven’t for weeks. I could be completely off there, the film IS a remarkably well-received crowdpleaser that has been picking up steam at the Box Office and of course it has the Weinstein-machine . Yet I think the Academy will make Russell settle with a writing nod…and they could do the same to Tarantino. Weinstein-backlash ? I don’t know.
Anyway, I still think Michael Haneke and Paul Thomas Anderson could surprise and considering how well his film played at the Academy-screenings, I think Sam Mendes has the potential to shock, too.
Clearly <bTom Hooper is the most vulnerable, especially because there several more than viable contenders who could take his slot. Still, the Academy screenings were reportedly smash hits and the film has a very passionate fanbase, those are the reasons I think he will have the edge in the end. I wasn’t a big fan of the film, but I think it’s undeniable its Oscar-chances are still damn good.
Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone will be announcing the Oscar nominees on Thursday:
http://www.deadline.com/2013/01/seth-macfarlane-emma-stone-to-announce-oscar-noms/
Thanks Paddy – was debating whether to make that front page news or not…
I know someone in the DGA who voted for: Benh Zeitlin, Kathryn Bigelow, Wes Anderson, Ang Lee, and Ben Affleck.
So it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Daveylo – that person is kind of a douchebag, sorry.
Ben Affleck, “Argo”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”
Final answer.
I think people are too caught up in the torture debate. I think if you think it’s relevant than you are sitting too close to the fire. Take a step back. No one cares except the political media. Saying this film is about torture is the same as saying Django Unchained is about slavery and Moonrise Kingdom is about Wilderness Survival. (Can I extend that metaphor to yet another film? Wait and see!)
Zero Dark Thirty is far more a character study. And secondarily a look at what these highly trained and dedicated people go through, what we ask of them and how they form their own families because they can’t share their work with anyone (I know a Navy Seal personally, and their family, it’s heartbreaking to talk to his mother who is always in the dark with what her son is up to). How they caught bin Laden is almost a side issue here, if we weren’t invested in these people, the ending wouldn’t be so tense. And that’s the brilliance in Zero Dark Thirty, it’s masterful in its trickery in those regards.
I don’t give a shit about the graphic violence in Django, nor am I African-American, but I still find Django distasteful. I hope I’m not in a group of one.
OT – BAFTA Rising Star noms:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/bafta-announces-5-actors-shortlisted-rising-star-award-125734850.html
This is still so blurry that I’m just gonna predict the same 5 for the DGA and Oscar:
Spielberg
Bigelow
Affleck
Russel
Hooper
Haven’t seen ZERO DARK THIRTY so I can’t talk about Ms. Bigelow, but aside from Spielberg I’d throw any of any of them under the bus for Haneke, Tarantino, PT Anderson, CLOUD ATLAS’ trio, and hell even Ridley Scott’s direction of PROMETHEUS! Am I the only one who thought ARGO was finished after the embassy siege? I was done after that point. Boring stuff, and for a patriot like me this shit should be right up my alley. And the “editing” in the airport scene? Highly overrated in my book. Upon second viewing Argo went in my scale from 3/5 to 2/5.
For the record, I still love THE TOWN and GONE BABY GONE; those movies I can still see. Won’t be seeing ARGO again soon if ever.
On a diffident note finally saw ON THE ROAD(2/5) and it’s mostly worthless, boring, and well, dead. Best thing about it? Kirsten Dunst. Garrett Hedlund was good and gorgeous but nobody fucking helped him! Well Dunst did, in like 1 or 2 short scenes. K-Stew, Riley, Sturridge all dreadful.
Mike, so… Go, Affleck, go!!!
And this pic above is a shame… Still can’t believe…
Four other actors who won the first time they were nominated for Best Director: Woody Allen, Annie Hall; Richard Attenborough, Gandhi; Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven; Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind – and all four films won Best Picture.
Well, I’m thinking the same, danemychal, but the photo above makes me fear the worst.
Spielberg, Affleck, Bigelow, Russell, Lee. Same as Sasha’s I think. However, if Hooper gets in it’ll be at the expense of Lee. Lee is hardly a lock even though I want him to be in there. And QT and PTA are your wildcards.
Ryan, great words.
I’ll watch Django tomorrow – João Marcelo, will you be there too?- but I don’ expect anyting new.
I’m really tired of Mr. Tarantino and his recyled movies.
Make an oririginal and different movie, fucking man!!!!
Affleck, Argo
Lee, Life of Pi
PTA, The Master
Spielberg, Lincoln
Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
My impression of Django Unchained was that it missed Sally Menke. A tighter edit could have made it a more interesting, better paced, less flabby (and shorter) film. I think Fred Raskin was too respectful of Tarantino’s work, and failed to see the flaws therein. Sally Menke was close to Tarantino; their professional relationship was second-to-none in the industry. I think she helped tidy up his mess.
Also, what struck me about Django was that it was one little story after another, with the narrative stopping and starting throughout the films. Tarantino’s films usually feature multiple narrative threads, but all intermingled. He laid them out individually in Django, and it was dissatisfying, particularly from a pacing perspective.
I think Hooper will be the DGA’s fifth nominee. The DGA is full of not only film directors, but TV directors as well, and he’s still well-respected among that lot for John Adams. Tarantino would be my second choice – the heat around Django atm is undeniable. But I may be underestimating Russell. I think Silver Linings Playbook could turn out to be a big contender. People just aren’t talking about it a lot currently, and I doubt that’ll be a stumbling block for it – it’s too beloved among too many people.
Bigelow
Affleck
Spielberg
Lee
Tarantino
T.
Got it. Keitel and Kingsley for “Bugsy” back in 1991. “Departed” had a good chance of repeating that, but THE JACK got snubbed.
@Joao
Crazy idea indeed. I can’t remember the last time two actors scored a supporting nod for the same movie. Django has very slim chances of doing that as well.
Men, just stuck at my home office, can’t attent “Cloud Atlas” press screening half hour from now.
Spielberg
Bigelow
Affleck
Tarantino
Lee
Yesterday a crazy idea just occur to me: Could “Django” repeat “Godfather” I and II, and puts three actors nominated for Supporting roles?
The DGA won’t go for Haneke, but I’m darn near certain that the Oscars will. Not so sure about BP, but IMHO Haneke has the Best Director nod allmost in the bag. There is a long line of foreign directors that manage to squeeze in a nod at the end, even without a BP nod. I can very well see “Amour” being this year’s “Vera Drake” or “Talk to Her” and scoring at least four nods – Director, Actress, Screenplay, Foreign.
At the Oscars, Haneke is a good pick for the fifth slot, cause the Academy often finds room for at least one artsy candidate. The DGA is much more mainstreamy with their choices.
Haven´t seen Django yet, Ryan, but I see that the typical Tarantino-coolness can leave you a bit underwhelmed. Tarantino has his own style, but it´s kind of repetitive. “Pulp Fiction” is still his masterpiece, nothing comes close in his oeuvre.
Spielberg
Hooper
Bigelow
Affleck
Russell
Always had a gut feeling Ang Lee and Tarantino would not be nommed – at the Oscars too. And something is telling me in my gut that either the DGA or AMPAS will avoid giving Bigelow a second nomination, but you cannot ignore the reviews and critical success of ZDT so I have put her in. With AMPAS not being able to be guided by the Guilds, they just may have looked at how the critics went. It’s going to be interesting as there clearly is no front runner ……. YET!
@Ryan
for once I agree with you, though I never really liked Tarantino movies, except Inglourious Basterds which is a true masterpiece, but Django is like the bottom of the barrel.
I think that this is the year where both DGA and the academy will have the same nominations.. At least 4 of 5 if not all of them.
Spielberg
Affleck
Lee
Bigelow
Russell
North Texas Dilm Critics winners:
Lincoln sweep.
http://www.northtexasfilmcritics.com/home/best-of-2012-from-ntfca
Any number of people could have taken Django’s script and directed the same movie (though I hope somebody else would have done it with better pacing).
To me, Django feels like someone tried and failed to direct a Tarantino-esque movie.
I don’t like it very much so I’m blind to its charms. Maybe someday someone can take a moment to explain what’s special about the way Django was directed. (Was it that 70s-era fast zoom-in to close-up when DiCaprio turns? woo woo, stylish!) Has the real Tarantino ever directed a movie that was this flatout boring and visually mundane?
Has anybody read that list of tropes that show up repeatedly in Tarantino films? Because apparently Tarantino has read about those tropes and maybe that’s why Django looks like a laundry list of QT checking off the tropes one by one, to be sure he’s following the formula.
Occurs to me that Tarantino’s Django is much like Hitchcock’s Family Plot.
Just saw “Silver Linings Playbook” yesterday with two female friends. Your description, Sasha, reads like this is a typical movie for men, but we all three liked it very much. It´s conventional, yes, at times predictable, but hell of a pleasure to watch. With intresting written and played characters. Lawrence, Cooper and De Niro all deserve at least nominations.
That said, I´m pretty sure about Russell to receive both DGA and Oscar nominations (I liked SLP much much better than The Fighter, which was kind of trash), and Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck all locked too (although I don´t really understand the hype about “Argo”, which was fine and all, but not very memorable).
Fitfth slot? I´d rather go with Tarantino over Ang Lee. Tom Hooper would be a huge surprise, this is not his year and “Mes Mis” received too mixed reviews.
4 locks: Spielberg, Affleck, Bigelow and Hooper. It’s Ang Lee who’s slugging it out with Russell, Tarantino and Haneke.
Sasha I would really love your opinion on this. Since we are in a world where there will now almost always be more than 5 Best Picture nominees (unless the academy changes the rules again) and ONLY 5 Best Director nominees, do you still think a movie missing BD still has its chances blown like it did if it missed BD with 5 BP nominees. I think the most recent example of the closest a movie came to winning Best Picture w.o a best director nomination was “Little Miss Sunshine”. And that was a year of 5 best picture nominees. So, for example, if Les Mis and SLP get nominated for BP like everyone thinks they will but one or both of them misses for BD, do you think it is still as hard for either to win BP since there will almost never be a BD/BP nominations exact match. If SLP or Les Mis wins the Sag Ensemble award, wins best picture at the GG’s, gets a best editing nomination, both get nominated for BP, but one or both doesn’t get nominated for BD…can you still see a scenario where its extremely hard/Impossible for either to win Best Picture? Do you get the sense that this is the year where we will see a real consequence of the academy’s decision to expand the Best Picture Nominees?
ONLY 5 Best Director nominees, do you still think a movie missing BD still has its chances blown like it did if it missed BD with 5 BP nominees.
Mike, I with more than five Best Picture nominees there is a better chance to split but in all of Oscar history Driving Miss Daisy is still that movie that won without a director nomination. It’s possible in the same way that Beasts of the Southern Wild might win Best Picture. You know, “possible” in a wild card situation if you want to think about it like that. Once in 84 years? Not LIKELY.
Im gonna go with:
Steven Spielberg
Tom Hooper
Quentin Tarantino
Ben Affleck
Christopher Nolan
The DGA and Oscar rarely match five out of five. Last time David Fincher got the DGA nomination but not an Oscar nomination. I think that this time Tarantino gets either an Oscar or a DGA nomination. Similar with David O Russell.
It is also possible this year because of the DGA’s lack of influence that just three directors get both DGA and Oscar nominations – Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck. Two will get one or the other. Then you can add Hooper or Hanecke to the mix.
The good news is that the Academy has really had to think about what to nominate instead of using the guilds as a lazy crutch.