Remember the good old days when Les Miserables was going to sweep? Now Argo fever.
Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.
Oh so 11 of 12 here are going with ARGO. LINCOLN does however have most of the No. 2 spots, so I am thinking a DGA win for Spielberg would brings on further re-assessment. And yes I do well remember when LES MIS was the talk of the town. Ha!
I don’t know… But this is reminding of Viola vs. Meryl last year. The difference between them was so high after SAG.
Viola vs Meryl?? Argo has won the most critics awards, The Critics Choice, Golden Globe, PGA, SAG, very likely wins the BAFTA, possibly the DGA. That is a sweep. Viola and Meryl was back and forth with no clear domination.
Chris (Boomer) on Goldderby nailed it last night. This race is over. If this was a normal calendar voting year, Affleck easily gets a nomination from the Oscars. Thats the only reason people are still thinking this is a race, because Affleck was snubbed by 300 members of the directors branch. In any normal calendar year he gets in.
I would not have voted for Ben for bd but Kb should have been nominated. I am predicting that directors branch will change their rules next year and nominate the same number of directors as there are bp nominations.
The most critics? Nah. The critics award that truly matter went to Zero Dark Thirty and Amour. I dont get this talk about calendar… Argo was released in October. Beasts in June. Lincoln, Pi and SLP in november. Why did it suffer from the calendar and Amour that was carried all over by foreign members did not? How the calendar made a 26 year old unknown get in instead of him… Did Argo have a poorer campaign when BOTSW’s studio was spending time and money trying to make Hitchcock a contender… What cost them Moonrise Kingdom nomination.
Argo is the frontrunner. But… We’ve seen this changing lots of times this season. Remember… Voting starts only feb. 8… Thats where the calendar could influence.
@JP. It’s like with the big football teams we have here in Europe. No one raises an eyebrow when Real Madrid or Manchest United qualify for Champions League. It is what most people expect based on their quality. Based on the quality of direction most people thought Affleck would get in. The only thing that killed Afflecks chance is the early voting.
Whatever happens from now on, and even if Lincoln wins, it would be a muted victory. The narrative after the Oscars are handed out will be that the Oscar voters didn’t want to be embarassed to have overlooked him first, so they rammed through the wall to make a point.
To be an OSCAR best picture , at least it should get a Director OR Actor OR Screenplay award , Can Argo get Best supporting or best adapted screenplay ?
Sorry but this is really sad and pathetic. Every one of these folks keeps switching back and forth, back and forth depending on who wins the next award.
I think Sasha should get a lot of credit for sticking to Lincoln, which in all honesty makes sense. Let us not forget that the Academy loves to award epics and big and grandiose movies and especially love historic dramas. Moreover, many of the recent best pictures include a strong acting honoree as well. Daniel Day Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones are great examples supporting Lincoln’s win. Silver Linings reminds me of As Good As it Gets and I am sorry its not what the Oscar voters are going to go for. At least Shakespeare in Love had the costumes and sets and grandiose factor, not that I liked that movie at all. Argo, I just don’t know, it just doesn’t feel like a best picture winner. Let us not forget, Ben Affleck was off the directors list for a reason here. We can assume they loved the film, but why not nominate him??
The conclusion is nobody knows anything. You can guess and assume based on the handful of awards that have been given out, but we wont know until February 24th.
I do know however that Emmanuelle Riva will win
But why only Affleck? Why Hazanavicius didn’t miss? Why Hooper, Bigelow… why none of them missed when they were the frontrunners? Why Tate Taylor, Valerie Ferris and Jonathan Dayton, Debra Granik… none of them made the cut like Zeitlin? I can’t see how early voting killed his chances… why it killed his chances but not David O. Russell’s… or Spielberg’s? I don’t see how early voting affected him but not the others… Affleck was a shoo-in but Spielberg wasn’t and they felt the need to vote for Spielberg and not Affleck? Not really I guess. Did Ron Howard or Ang Lee have early voting to blame for the snub in 1995? This is year is special… but I’ve seen lots of competitive years and in none of them the frontrunner missed but in 1995. In 2004, there was a huge change in the calendar… did Peter jackson, Charlize Theron, Sean Penn, Tim Robbins and Renee Zelwegger miss? We’ve seen lots of surprises then… but none of the frontrunners.
I’m starting to wish that David Fincher had missed for The Social Network. Not only he would not have to submit himself to watching Tom Hooper beating him… but… wait… there would be no commotion… no poor David Fincher then. What people would be saying is… ah… The Social Network is so cold… that’s why he missed.
ARGO seems to be taking the “spoiler” role in a repeat of KING’S SPEECH vs. SOCIAL NETWORK two years ago. In both cases, the “warmer” film seems to be winning hearts as opposed to minds. I’ve been steadfastly holding onto LINCOLN as the inevitable winner, but now even I’m beginning to wonder…
WOW, Karger has been changing of opinión more than underclothing.
I never thought that we would be saying Argo is the best picture frontrunner! I still can’t see it winning. I really can’t. I thought they would do another Annie Hall, and give Best Pic to SLP and David O Russell. What a disappointing year if Argo is awarded the best film of 2012, one of the greatest year for movies. I just don’t understand all these awards shows anymore!
“I don’t know… But this is reminding of Viola vs. Meryl last year. The difference between them was so high after SAG.”
Yes, and a lot of them, Sasha included, acted like Viola Davis winning was a done deal…
And the people putting Zero Dark Thirty and Les Miserables over either one of Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook (or both) are just crazy.
This has been the single most amusing part of the season – watching the kittens clamouring after each ball of yarn that’s thrown their way, sight unseen. How many “inevitable” “sure things” have we been handed since September? At least 4?
Sasha has remained pretty solid and thoughtful (a sign of calm confidence, imo) but some of the others have been hysterically grasping at anything that goes by like blind hookers at Fleet Week.
Sad when it’s over, but we have a few fun-filled weeks left.
I have followed Tom O’neil Goldderby for many years but lets be honest here. I don’t think Tom has picked a best picture winner in a long long time. He seems to always side with heart instead of reason when choosing.
I think Sasha should get a lot of credit for sticking to Lincoln
Thanks you guys. You know who else is pretty solid and consistent is Anne Thompson. She is cautious and waits until she knows for sure and then switches. She is waiting for the DGA to decide. I am waiting for the WGA. Not that it really matters if one more pundit predicts Argo or not. No one follows me for that reason, particularly.
Sorry but this is really sad and pathetic. Every one of these folks keeps switching back and forth, back and forth depending on who wins the next award.
They are pretty ridiculous aren’t they? It’s been cracking me up. It’s like watching an only lady pick a 9 for the last number in the price of a car on The Price is Right after standing there and listening for what the crowd is screaming loudest. Then once she picks they yell, “boooo” and she asks to pick again and it keeps going…..only The Price is Right has more integrity and once you pick, you picked. Live with your decision and stand by it. I’ve never understood the fascination with these guys with being “right” when they are not doing it based on any skill or knowledge at all!!! They just ride the wave of the screaming audience. It’s like being proud of predicting a case of the morning shits after a night of cheap booze and White Castle.
Its obvious that the Academy Awards are trying to distance themselves from the major precursors. The other award shows are totally different from the Academy Awards. There might be a percentage of producers, actors, foreign press who voted for other movies besides Argo as well. The Academy has about 6,000 members who think differently then theses other awards shows. So to say Argo is the clear winner is absolute premature.
I did a playful and interesting complete analysis and the numbers may seem silly but if you count up all the number of nominated films in all award shows you will get a total of 63 films nominated from 1995-present. Now I count the SAGS when they first begin giving out awards to their casts along with the golden globes and producers guild if you count it up you only get about 29 winners who won best picture. I got a 46 percent chance that Argo will win best picture. If Argo wins it will be the first movie since The Departed to win best picture without getting the most nominations in one night (beating out Babel who had 7). It will also be the first movie since Driving Miss Daisy to win best picture without a best director nomination. If Argo wins only one award being that of best picture it will be the first movie since probably the 30s to win only best picture and not win anything else. I doubt that this will happen and if it does then it will be a total shocker. But they have a 46 percent chance of winning. So in order for it win best picture it would have to win in other categories. Argo is nominated for Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Score.
In order for them to win best picture my bet is that they will try and win:
Supporting Actor, Screenplay, and Editing
The front runner for
Supporting Actor has to be Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Adapted screenplay has to be Lincoln
Editing has to be Zero Dark Thirty or Argo itself.
My guess is that Argo is only going to win editing or possibly nothing.
Anyways it may seem silly or it may seem interesting to others or intriguing but I concluded Argo is not going to win best picture because the numbers show that they are not in their favor. But who knows I could be wrong. We will see.
these people change with the prevailing winds. unfortunately, it seems, so do the members of the Academy who vote with the common wisdom of the entertainment pundits…and why not? a large percentage don’t even watch the movies.
that “common wisdom” in recent years gives Oscars to performances like those from Reese Witherspoon, Sandra Bullock, and Helen Hunt. now, i’m afraid, in that grand tradition, a similar cheapened honor will go to Jennifer Lawrence for her petulant, sullen, teen-angst-at-22 portrayal of Tiffany in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK. saw it tonite. my gosh…why are these awards going to her? she seems like a good actress, granted, but the women were the weakest part of that movie. Cooper and DeNiro were terrific. but Jackie Weaver? nominated for standing around with an anxious expression and wringing her hands? good lord. from the hype i was expecting an event equal to the contemporary comic-drama of THE GRADUATE or at least a MOONSTRUCK. and still these “experts” have it listed at #3 for the year (rolling eyes and groaning). and i don’t want to hear another complaint out of you guys about the incessant close-ups in LES MISERABLES. i feel like i was in kissing range of most of the SLP characters throughout the movie. oy! c’mon Academy. do the right thing. LINCOLN, please.
The thing that is so f@#$&n ridiculous is people bandwagon jumping! If u like ur prediction stick with it! Even if argo gains momentum, who cares! Like ive said stranger things have happened…..
Most pundits are no more reliable than the average idiot who posts here. They jump ship the moment they think they feel the tide turning. I haven’t been following Gold Derby this year. The Les Mis thing sealed that deal.
Some are waiting for DGA, some for WGA … that’s understandable. But the Academy at large votes for Director and Screenplay.
So for me, I always look to BAFTA in the 2 weeks leading up (who’s winning for acting, writing, etc).
Argo, Life of Pi, and ZD30 look strong ar BAFTA. Lincoln, too.
I feel that if Best Picture goes to anything BUT Argo there, then other films like Lincoln and Life of Pi still have a shot at the Oscars.
I’m actually really hoping for a surprise Life of Pi win there, but, still feeling Argo (as mentioned, that Best Actor nom).
So exactly what does it take to be an Oscar Pundit. I have watched many videos and listened top podcasts, to me the only thing required to be a pundit is a blog or venue to voice your opinion. I watched a video on Gold Derby and they came across as dudes with webcams talking about movies. Personally I think many readers, including myself would do a much better job picking winners.
The experts can’t decide who the real best picture is because the analysis got screwed up this weekend, so now they are picking Argo to win Best picture. Stick to your gun guys and quit being insecure.
@Niles, I love your thinking and all of your numbers. The thing we probably need to all keep in mind is how the nominations came about this year, being announced before Globes and DGA nominations were even out. In a normal Oscar year, the DGA noms come out, Globes are done and without a doubt Affleck gets his directors nod and everyone would be talking how far Argo is out front. But, like you said, stranger things have happened. I just think this is a strange year to start and need to take that into account.
@JP….I didn’t know if the calendar was explained to you where you understood it, it is the calendar of when the nominations came out, not when the movies came out. If the Globes go on and see Affleck win for director, and the DGA nominates Affleck, there is little doubt that the Academy would have went ahead and gave him a nomination.
But this is what the Academy wanted, to look different and be independent from other award shows. They sure have that. They make look different, but they also look silly.
It was perfectly explained to me. And your point of view just makes “poor Ben” theory undeniable.
Once again… if Argo was THE frontrunner, THE movie they preferred, THE one they had fallen in love with before the snub, they would never have snubbed him. Even if they were the only award show in the movie industry. I don’t know if you think the same way but many seem to think that the Academy members thought he was already a shoo-in and voted for something else. If Ben and Argo were the frontrunners, this most certainly would not have happened. Did the Academy member have any doubt that Spielberg… nominated dozens of times… would miss for such a respected film as Lincoln? Come on… one guy is Ben Affleck and the other is Steven Spielberg. Does anyone sincerely think that an Academy member would think: “Ben is safe but old Steve is vulnerable”? If the Academy was truly trying to think for itself and snubbed Ben, it means Argo was not the frontrunner. They may now feel guilty for what they did to him… and this is strongly working in Argo favor. Your last paragraph is just perfect: “But this is what the Academy wanted, to look different and be independent from other award shows. They sure have that. They make look different, but they also look silly.”
But as silly as this snub is an ensemble SAG to Argo… and this was evident by the look in the audience when Argo was announced the winner. This is by far the worst choice I think they’ve ever done in this category. I mean… I would not have given it to The Birdcage, The Full Monty, The King’s Speech… not even one of my favorite hollywood films Apollo 13 but nothing like Argo. They had 3 notable ensemble pieces of work to award: Lincoln, SLP and Les Mis and rewarded one inferior to… I could write one full page of recent blockbusters that had better ensemble. Most of them were not even nominated. The Dark Knight most notably.