Hardcore SAG Campaigning

Right now two of the strongest ad campaigns for Oscar online are Silver Linings Playbook and Argo. That’s because they figure the Best Picture prize is up for grabs in a wide open race so why not go for it. They are making last minute rallies everywhere I turn. I saw a half hour info-special for Argo the other night and the Weinstein Co., heading for a threepeat of their 3rd consecutive Best Picture win are stepping on the gas hardcore. I really don’t think any other publicity team is better at turning any old movie into a Best Picture contender. They have the Midas touch. In the recent issue of Backstage they had covered the pages with ads for Silver Linings, and had even included a special behind the scenes look at the film DVD.  For its part, the Lincoln campaign were running clips of Lincoln’s second inaugural address (the end of Lincoln) during Obama’s inaugural ceremonies.  Check out how they’re snagging SAG voters for that coveted ensemble award:

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Dr. Oz Goes to Bat for Silver Linings

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76 Comments

  1. Andrew
    January 23, 2013

    Thank you Sasha for this useful information and your keen observation. Campaigning efforts translate to votes.

    Is Lincoln, the Oscar front runner, campaigning hard?

    Life of Pi–is the buzz quiet?

  2. Christophe
    January 23, 2013

    Well, we’ll see soon enought it this hardcore campaigning really works or if turns voters off… In any case, I’m pretty sure a majority of voters are already firmly set on whom or what to vote for, but it’s undeniable there is a vast enough amount of swing/dispassionate voters to sway the results one way or the other.

  3. Sasha Stone
    January 23, 2013

    Andrew, as I said, I really am only seeing two campaigns fighting it out right now and that’s Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. They sense a weakness in Best Picture and are stepping on the gas – they don’t have anything to lose. Weinstein Co. always comes on hard, even when they have a sure bet. Somehow their films always look like scrappy underdogs that could even though they keep winning.

  4. Sasha Stone
    January 23, 2013

    Christoph, I think with Argo and SLP they don’t have much to lose by going for it. They figure, they aren’t in the lead so they don’t have anything to lose. We all knew it was going to be a battle of Oscar titans this year with many of the biggest and most famous names in Oscar strategy at play. These are people who have been around since the Saving Private Ryan days, some of them. They are all in the mix and it’s a fight to the death.

  5. Christophe
    January 23, 2013

    Nevertheless, it leaves me wondering how advertising in the media compares to direct-to-voter campaigning? I guess they’re fighting on both sides anyway.

  6. Koleś
    January 23, 2013

    I sure can imagine a voter thinking “well this movie has so many noms, I guess I should at least vote for one of them.”

  7. Sasha Stone
    January 23, 2013

    @Christoph the proof is in the pudding – Weinstein Co. has won BP two years in a row. Heading for #3.

  8. Unlikely hood
    January 23, 2013

    I have never understood what the weinsteins do that others dont do, besides more ads. Personal phone calls from Harvey? Better catered affairs? Better swag? Free child care during screenings? What?

  9. Christophe
    January 23, 2013

    @sasha
    sure but TWC is also very aggressive/effective in reaching voters directly, not just advertising in the media. And btw, I actually favored their BP winners over the last 2 yrs, and I supported many of their films over the years, but not this time… so I’m feeling like if they win again with SLP in such a competitive year, then it’ll be the absolute proof their campaigning skills are even more important than their abilities to find the right, oscar-baity films.

  10. Unlikely hood
    January 23, 2013

    I just wonder why other studios dont copy the weinsteins’ techniques. As Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt in Moneyball) can tell you, imitation is the sincerest form…of devastating competition.

  11. Sasha Stone
    January 23, 2013

    Christophe, when they got The Reader in instead of the Dark Knight in 2006 that’s when I felt the full force of their power. They are great at making their frontrunners seem like underdogs and are at their best when they have a real fight on their hands.

  12. January 23, 2013

    I dreamt last night that he had his SLP actors hold focus groups after a screening. Not sure why this would be happening now, and with his actors. He said something like, “I haven’t given up yet.”

  13. Christophe
    January 23, 2013

    weird, I actually liked The Reader very very much, but I agree it was an extremely long shot for a BP nom and I guess only TWC could make it happen.

  14. Sasha Stone
    January 23, 2013

    I didn’t hate The Reader at all – in fact we were behind it. But I guess I never thought it could really have gotten in.

  15. Zach
    January 23, 2013

    If Silver Linings wins Best Picture, what else does it win? Even with enough support to take the top prize, I don’t see it winning Director or Screenplay over Lincoln. Call it my own bias. Director could go to Lee too if they really want, but nobody’s feeling it.

    At most I see SLP winning Picture, Actress, and Supporting Actor (De Niro at least has SAG). This could be a Crash year, no doubt.

  16. January 23, 2013

    Anxiety seems to be running high because of the force of campaigns, as well as PGA/SAG coming up.

    The most SLP is winning pre-Oscar is SAG. And the most Oscars it’s going to win is two, for acting.

    Really, this will all pass and then everyone will forget this ever happened.

  17. January 23, 2013

    “I think it’s well publicized that Lincoln is my favorite President, and so to see an intimate depiction of him in his work and the challenges that faced him even in a relatively compressed period of time was incredibly powerful.”

    The Lincoln campaign should get in quotes on what Obama had to say about the film. Obama had spoken about the lessons from the film. Surely there cannot be a better endorsement than that.

  18. Armando
    January 23, 2013

    I don’t really care who wins but just for fun, I’d love to see any movie but Lincoln take BP at the Oscars. Specially if it is from TWC… even better if it is Silver Linings Playbook.

  19. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    Campaigning makes sense, even if most voters have their number one picks. But then I don’t think the battle is over the #1 slot, it’s over the #2 slots and #3 slots and even down to #4 and #5. In a year such as this where there are truly no weak entries (like last year and ELAIC) every rank could mean the difference.

    Let’s look at my ballot as an example (were I to have one)

    The first two picks are solid.

    1) Zero Dark Thirty
    2) Les Miserables.

    Now most believe these two films are longshots. And if they they are they will be eliminated from consideration, then suddenly my number three becomes the number one. And there’s the first battle.

    I like Life of Pi and Argo both, a lot. And in my rankings I could easily have them at 3 and 4, respectively, or 4 and 3 on the next day. And they are both competitive for the Best Pic.

    So let’s say I rank them thus.

    3) Life of Pi
    4) Argo

    But what if the battle doesn’t come down to them, what if comes down to them, what if they are eliminated before the final round.

    5) Beasts of the Southern Wild.

    OK, that will be eliminated by now most likely. And I haven’t seen Amour, which at this point I would place it 6, preferring a film I haven’t seen thgat I suspect I will like rather than a film I prefer not to win.

    6) Amour – Gone!

    And the bottom 3

    7) Lincoln
    8) Django Unchained
    9) Silver Linings Playbook.

    So if it came down to Lincoln v. SLP, I would have a Lincoln Ballot. To me, I am firm on these bottom three and they won’t change (unless I like Amour less than I suspect I will)

    But for many voters, the bottom four or 5 are probably throwaway positions, one they don’t think about very much. So if Weinstein can convince me that SLP is important or that it’s lovable and fun and not stodgy and uptight, then maybe I would put SLP at #7 rather than #9, and before you know it, my ballot switches to an SLP ballot rather than a Lincoln ballot.

    But hey, I thought I had a Zero Dark Thirty Ballot – so what do I know? I’m just a clueless Academy voter. It doesn’t matter what I put down as #7 and #8, does it?

  20. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    The minute you bring Obama into the conversation, then a rival studio can refer to the fact that he didn’t include Lincoln in his top 3. I can’t recall his top three, but Beasts of the Southern Wild was one of them.

  21. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    Quick research reveals that Obama Listed, in order (though not necessarily ranked order) Beasts, Life of Pi, then Argo.

  22. Christophe
    January 23, 2013

    So Lincoln is in there too! And it SHOULD be made official by the White House. They should totally release a top 10 list + nomination guidelines + winner picks, or the Academy should give the president the right to vote at the Oscars and other privileges like add nominees to any category or veto nominees he doesn’t like.

  23. steve50
    January 23, 2013

    I had previously called this leg of the Oscar race “ugly” because this is the point where the campaigning becomes more about the subject matter than the expertise behind the films. Working our way up the leader board, here’s why.

    Amour, Django Unchained, and Beasts of the Southern Wild have virtually no chance of waking away with Best Picture.

    Amour is brilliant in its examination of the most difficult period in life – the end. It’s difficult, deserves to be in the list and will be remembered long after several of the other nominees have been forgotten, but the road stops here.

    Django Unchained probably doesn’t deserve a berth, but the love for Tarantino’s unique parody style and pre-release hype have carried it this far. Unfortunately, Tarantino is dangerously close to the line of self-parody and many fans, myself included, find this to be wearing a bit thin. Lucky to be here, but I wouldn’t be surprised, or sad, if it goes home empty-handed.

    Beasts of the Southern Wild, the luckiest of all the nominees, is the stunning debut of a new storyteller. It deserves to be recognized in the BP line-up, but will have to be satisfied that this is it.

    Then there’s Les Miserables. Like Django, it had a built-in audience ready and waiting. The pre-release anticipation was higher for this film than any other this year and the question was, could it reach beyond the people who already adored the musical. A well-made version would certainly achieve this, but, as we found it, showstoppers and star turns don’t make for a cohesive or imaginative film, despite the love for the original material. I think it’s over for Les Mis.

    This leave the five leaders:

    Zero Dark Thirty was once a strong leader in the race but has unfortunately fallen victim to its own unflinching expertise. The goal of making the audience question the dark corners of the recent past was so perfectly accomplished that it has stupendously backfired on itself. I’ll wager in ten years time, this will be considered one of the two films considered milestones from 2012, but any accolades right now would be attributed to luck.

    Life of Pi has achieved the remarkable by turning a simple, supposedly unfilmable story into a dazzling allegory that has crossed borders and cultures, judging by the international box office haul. With 11 nominations, its technical achievements are obvious. They are not showy simply in and of themselves, but are used to propel the story and it’s complex layers of thought and mood.

    Zero Dark Thirty and Life of Pi, and to a lesser extent, Lincoln, require effort from the viewer. Multiple viewings reveal just how accomplished these films are. On the second viewing of most films, the seams start to show. These films improve.

    First and foremost, AMPAS voters are like water in that they will choose the path of least resistance. Did they like after one viewing? Is it well made and easy? If you scan the list of past BP winners, there are very few challenging or controversial films on the list.

    There are three nominees this year that fit that bill – Lincoln, Argo and Silver linings Playbook.

    Lincoln does require a bit of effort in that it’s thoughtful, but it is beautifully scripted, acted and presented.

    Argo, along with Silver Linings Playbook, are the most conventional nominees on the list. Argo is an expertly crafted, easily digested crowd-pleaser that requires a single viewing to appreciated. SLP is a romcom that isn’t as deep as it likes to think it is, but audiences seem to be buying it.

    And here’s where it gets ugly. The campaigning is no longer about effective filmmaking technique, but has become a debate on the cuteness and optimism seldom associated (rightly or wrongly) with mental illness versus whether or not Lincoln was really a racist and the drag or political process.

    Argo nipped its potential controversy in the bud last fall and seemed to be avoiding the fray, but both the Lincoln and SLP detractors smell blood and have gotten down into the mud pit to have it out with each other. Supporters of both use the pedigree of the 16th president and the back-patting abolishment of slavery to promote Lincoln or the inspiring challenges of mental health to defend SLP, when both groups should be leaving these peripheral issues aside and let the judging compare the actual quality of the films themselves. Argo has vengeance on its mind and would love SAG win to put it back in the race.

    This steals press and puts those films front of mind, at the expense of equal or better films that survived the annual cull and made the final list. It’s a subtle form of larceny that subliminally asks AMPAS voters to take sides where maybe they wouldn’t have bothered before the arguing started.

    We knew at the start that convention would rule the day. So, that means one of these three films will be crowned Best Picture, but does that make it so? Hardly. It becomes strictly business and appoints the winner of a campaign and the movie of the minute. Only time will determine what is truly “best”, and I daresay that Oscar, once again, misses the boat.

  24. January 23, 2013

    “I’ll wager in ten years time, this will be considered one of the two films considered milestones from 2012, but any accolades right now would be attributed to luck.”

    Well said, Steve50. I wish more people in the industry had the intelligence and balls to go to bat for ZD30. But, who cares. This film will stand the test of time like you said.

  25. Sasha Stone
    January 23, 2013

    That Obama list was misleading, though, because if you read the whole thing it was in the context of films he and his kids would watch again – or rather movies for the whole family. I took it that way anyway – movies his daughters and his wife would want to see again. The girls probably couldn’t sit through Lincoln, lol.

  26. January 23, 2013

    So how does this campaigning get to the voters? I mean we’re not talking about ads in Variety. How to they contact the voters? I know there is stuff to read online but I assume many people are busy with their own lives or not checking on this stuff 24/7. So what do they actually do to campaign negatively against the competition?

  27. brace
    January 23, 2013

    I don’t think that taking The Reader nomination over The Dark Knight is the right example of the Weinstein power. it was WW2 drama based on a famous novel over superhero action flick based on a comic book.

  28. January 23, 2013

    Gosh, if I was the President’s kid, Lincoln would be the last movie I’d want to see.

  29. PJ
    January 23, 2013

    Every single time I keep trying to dismiss Argo, it keeps coming back. I have no idea why it seems to be made of teflon. It just won’t die.

  30. January 23, 2013

    The president named Beasts, Life of Pi, and Argo as movies he and the first family enjoyed.

    He hasn’t officially announced the 2012 White House Film Nominees.

    Obama loved Lincoln.

    Obama is not an Academy member.

    Remind me what Obama thought about Silver Linings and Les Mis.

    Nah. Never mind. Just teasing. You know I don’t give a shit.

  31. Dominik
    January 23, 2013

    “Christophe, when they got The Reader in instead of the Dark Knight in 2006 that’s when I felt the full force of their power.”

    Sasha, I believe the point is, that “The Reader” is the kind of melodrama the Academy always favored over a fantasy-blockbuster like “The Dark Knight” – no matter who campaigned for it.

  32. Robin Write
    January 23, 2013

    Ah campaigning, one of my favourite subjects come Oscar time. The “office” section of my front room where I write is decorated in the ads from Variety and Hollywood Reporter from the last ten years or so. But that is neither here nor there.

    The Reader was a classic campaign victory. For the movie at least. I also think the deaths of Pollack and Minghella {who were involved in The Reader} touched many people and perhaps felt the emotional urge to vote for it. Which is fair enough, and the were great losses. I though did not like The Reader enough to place it in the top five. But voters did. With a gun to their head :-). Shame for The Dark Knight though, even with the loss of Ledger {who would have won Best Supporting Actor if he were alive} it did not make the five…

  33. steve50
    January 23, 2013

    “I don’t think that taking The Reader nomination over The Dark Knight is the right example of the Weinstein power. it was WW2 drama based on a famous novel over superhero action flick based on a comic book.”

    It is the perfect example of Harvey’s power. What you say about a WW2 drama and a superhero action flick makes sense on paper. Lots of voters probably saw neither, so they would be easily drawn to the perceived importance, thanks to the marketing, of the former and dismissed that latter. Anybody that took the time to watch and consider the achievement of both films, however, would definitely come down on the side of TDK.

    The marketeers know what aspects to promote, but even better, they know that many people haven’t – and will not – see both. They vote for the subject, not the film.

  34. Robin Write
    January 23, 2013

    I remember the time when people were excited that a movie like The Dark Knight could make Best Picture. The Reader was nowhere, except Winslet for Supporting Actress. She also had a strong case for Actress for Revolutionary Road, which was wrongly destroyed when all of a sudden The Reader emerged as a Best Picture contender and Winslet was pushed into Lead over Supporting. Tragic. Though Penelope Cruz was delighted…

  35. January 23, 2013

    Sony is falling apart. Sadly. I think they are even selling their magnificent Phillip Johnson building 550 Madison in NYC. So, no, they have other things on their minds, instead of getting Oscars.

    Harvey, OTOH, LOVES this kind of come from behind challenge. He’s already nailed Jennifer Lawrence, and on Sunday, when Robert DeNiro wins the SAG. He’s got TWO for “SLP”….If SLP gets Best Ensemble, too. WHOA, NELLY! Pack it in!Game over.

    Best Ensemble could also be “Argo” but I don’t see A. Arkin winning BSA. HOWever, if that happens!….

  36. Zooey
    January 23, 2013

    To me Harvey’s power is obvious but not exactly in terms of a best picture nod for The Reader, but Winslet’s lead nod. How often does the Academy vote against the campaign – I remember it happening with Keisha Castle-Hughes, but she didn’t have a film in both categories and she didn’t have two Globe wins. So how exactly did it happen? Because judging from Michael Shannon’s nod the acting branch didn’t hate Revolutionary Road? And prior to the Oscar nods I saw the love for Winslet in supporting as a way of giving her an award without feeling really passionate about it? Actually if you check, Penelope was the favorite to win the Globe – over Winslet! And that in the day of the Globes. So how did it happen really??

    And it’s not true that The Reader didn’t have precursors.
    In terms of guilds it had the SAG nod for Winslet and an ASC nod.
    In terms of Globes, it had four nominations and a win.
    In terms of BAFTA’s, it had five nods and a win.
    In terms of the BFCA, it had three nods and a win.

    By the way on paper it works perfectly, haven’t tried it in reality.

    But let’s take a category – actress.
    We take the same 10 voters – voting for SAG and voting for Oscar.
    And when the votes are counted for Oscar, they’re counted based on preferential voting.
    I guess chances are we’ll come up with at least one difference even though voters must have listed the same five names.
    And we have a month between the deadline for SAG and Oscar, so chances are voters must have seen some films and votes change, so the nods for The Reader aren’t shocking but Winslet in lead is.

    I hope SAG really shakes this race once again.

    I’d love to see the DGA going for Ang Lee so that we have another strong contender emerging but I guess they’ll follow the spirit of the race and slap the directors’ branch and give it to Affleck.

    The PGA will go with Argo. Lincoln is a possibility if they want to honor Kennedy but I doubt it.

    The SAG is harder.
    My guts: Argo, Day-Lewis or Jackman, Watts, Tommy Lee Jones, Hathaway

  37. January 23, 2013

    “Obama is not an Academy member.”
    Thx Ryan! Very insightful remark as always! But I do think the Academy is much more likely to trust and follow Obama’s opinion than the House of Reps…

  38. Antoinette
    January 23, 2013

    But let’s take a category – actress.

    We take the same 10 voters – voting for SAG and voting for Oscar.

    And when the votes are counted for Oscar, they’re counted based on preferential voting.

    I didn’t know that. I thought it was just BP that you had to arrange them. I thought you just picked one actress, actor, song, etc. Oh, that makes it different then.

  39. January 23, 2013

    @antoinette
    where did you hear that? it is my understanding preferential voting at the oscars is indeed only for bp, unless an acad member can tell us otherwise.

  40. Antoinette
    January 23, 2013

    @Christophe I was quoting Zooey

  41. January 23, 2013

    Is that right, Christophe? You believe the Academy is likely to follow Obama’s lead, likely to follow Obama’s opinion?

    What movie is the House of Representatives backing? I missed the news about that.

    Or, wow, maybe the Academy does not care what Obama likes. (btw, That’s what I think).

    But if Beasts of the Southern Wild wins Best Picture then you might be onto something.

    My point is this: what the fuck difference does it make which movies Barack, Michelle, Sasha and Malia enjoyed?

    To the Academy it makes No Difference. None. Zero.

    So it’s a stupid point to raise, and that’s why I’m trying to explain it as if I’m speaking to a stupid person.

  42. January 23, 2013

    Ok. Now you guys have done it. I’m getting ads for the 2013 Lincoln MKZ and Barney Frank. XD

  43. Sammy
    January 23, 2013

    The Reader was already nominated by the Globes, BAFTA, BFCA so it was there from the beginning. The Reader deserved its place as a BP nominee. The cinematography by Roger Deakins and Chris Menges and the music from Nico Muhly was awesome and the year’s best. It was much more touching than the other nominees.

  44. Sammy
    January 23, 2013

    One thing is clear. SLP or Argo will not win Best Picture. We should all be prepared for a big surprise.

  45. Sammy
    January 23, 2013

    I believe Sally Field can spring a surprise. Anne Hathaway thing is not a done deal.

  46. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    You’d think Obama would be campaigning hard for Zero Dark Thirty. Heck, he was even in it!

    Not very many people can say the following. “I was US President, I Won a Nobel Peace Prize, and I was in a movie that won a Best Picture Oscar.” That would definitely give him bragging rights at the local bar.

  47. January 23, 2013

    @ryan
    duh! have a sense of humor much? All I’m saying is it’d be easier for Obama to convince the liberal-leaning Academy to back his favorite movie(s) than pass a bill in the house of Reps which is dominated by Republicans if I’m not mistaken. Both events present real challenges, but the latter seems to me even more challenging than the former…

  48. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    Not to get too into politics, but the House of Representatives is saying “No!” a lot less this year.

  49. January 23, 2013

    I think it’s funny to say Sally field has a better chance than Argo.

    Anne will fly over Hollywood in a nun costume before Sally wins.

    And, yes, I believe Sally was better.

  50. Zooey
    January 23, 2013

    @ Antoinette,

    this is for nominations, not winners.

  51. CB
    January 23, 2013

    I’m in the anything but ZD30 category, but now that that’s been neutralized, I’m against Lincoln.

    I hope Harvey can pull his magic and get SLP, the only great film nominated besides Amour, to win. If SLP wins picture, it’ll be the first truly deserving winner since Million Dollar Baby.

  52. January 23, 2013

    M$B truly deserving? Truly deserving of a knockout for being manipulative and obvious.

  53. CB
    January 23, 2013

    Nope! Best movie of ’04.

  54. January 23, 2013

    Nope! The Aviator kicks its sexy little ass big time! Heck even Finding Neverland was much more deserving than M$B.

  55. January 23, 2013

    Sideways and Vera Drake were more intelligent and mature than just about everything else nominated for an Oscar.

    And they were both made by reliable filmmakers who make good to great films in general.

  56. January 23, 2013

    “intelligent and mature”
    Try boring… :-P

  57. daveinprogress
    January 23, 2013

    ^ Try insightful, moving and wonderful.

  58. January 23, 2013

    I dunno, haven’t seen them… have no intention to.

  59. CB
    January 23, 2013

    Vera Drake was fine. Sideways was very overrated and extremely wobbly. Election and About Schmidt are astonishing movies, but Sideways was the beginning of Payne’s slow descent into doing into self-imitation.

  60. daveinprogress
    January 23, 2013

    Always helpful to see a movie BEFORE declaring it boring or useless.

  61. January 23, 2013

    I’ve stopped calling Lincoln boring until I see it a second time.

  62. January 23, 2013

    yeah me too… I really want to love it but I wasn’t impressed the first time, well I guess first times are always a little disappointing, except when they’re not!

  63. Zooey
    January 23, 2013

    I hated Million Dollar Baby – it was way too manipulative and obvious as Vince already pointed out. But to me BEFORE SUNSET was the film I really loved back then. And ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND, with SIDEWAYS being my favorite of the actual nominees. THE AVIATOR was a real bore.

  64. CB
    January 23, 2013

    Agreed, Zooey, on Before Sunset.

    M$B was the best of what was nominated, and that’s why I say it’s the last deserving winner. Everything else was not the best of the lucky batch to be nominated.

  65. Lynne
    January 23, 2013

    Aggressive campaigning is really annoying, but intriguing at the same time, especially if results don’t go their way!

  66. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    Clearly the best film of 2004 is Mysterious Skin.

    Now if you haven’t seen a Gregg Araki film you may be a little put off by his in your face style, but damn this is a great film. And it’s still Joseph Gordon Leavitt’s best performance.

  67. hcu
    January 23, 2013

    Mysterious Skin was a 2005 movie in terms of Oscar.

  68. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    2004 was a shitty year for films, apparently. Having looked over a list I don’t see one great film amongst them all. Lot’s of really good ones, but nothing that amazes me.

    I might just have to go with Mean Creek.

  69. daveinprogress
    January 23, 2013

    Clearly the best film of 2004 is Sideways. Clearly the best Joseph Gordon Leavitt performance is 50/50.

    Rufus, if you can’t beat ‘em. join em!

  70. PaulinJapan
    January 23, 2013

    One of the reasons I follow the Oscars race so closely is for betting purposes. It’s worth taking a moment to see how UK bookies view the race for Best Pic. Lincoln is a solid favorite right now at 1/4 (4 dollars bet to win 1). Argo is 2nd fav at 5/1. You can bet on SLP at 25/1.

    Of course, the bookies often get this race wrong, which is why I like to bet on it. Still, enemies of SLP can put off buying the razor blades for a while yet, as it is still quite a long shot, as the odds reflect.

    My money is on Argo. ZD30 is out of the running due to the controversy, but I reckon this helps Argo, as it’s more likely to pick up the votes of ZD30 fans. The only thing against Argo is the lack of an Affleck nom, but this can be put down to a switch in dates. This weekend will be revealing though. Argo needs the PGA.

  71. Jackie W
    January 23, 2013

    Everytime I see this pic of Jackie Weaver, which lead me to think of her in this movie, I feel embarrassed for her…

  72. rufussondheim
    January 23, 2013

    Definitely bet on Argo.

    Daveinprogress – you got #2 and #2!

  73. January 24, 2013

    While I think AMPAS can’t do other thing than a Lincoln sweep (seriously, how can they resist?), there would be a dark humor side to see Lincoln win Actor, Director and then lose Picture to Silver Linings Playbook. If de Niro, Weaver and Lawrence win, also Screenplay, Picture is almost a given. But I can see de Niro and Lawrence winning, plus screenplay and nothing else.

  74. January 24, 2013

    Sony is falling apart. Sadly. I think they are even selling their magnificent Phillip Johnson building 550 Madison in NYC.

    Dose of reality: That Phillip Johnson building topped out with the Chippendale highboy pediment is a postmodern milestone built for AT&T in the 1980s. AT&T sold it to Sony 20 years ago for $415 million. (side note, AT&T is not “falling apart”)

    Sony is now selling the real estate for $1.1 billion. (That’s a profit of $685 million, if you’re an accountant trying to find out how badly Sony is hurting).

    oh, and as part of the deal, Sony will continue to have its New York offices headquartered in the same building.

    So, no, they have other things on their minds, instead of getting Oscars.

    The Social Network, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty, Elysium — Dear Sony, whatever you have on your mind besides Oscars please keep doing that.

  75. Chris
    January 24, 2013

    To me The Hours is the best picture of all time. Despite its subject matter, Daldry weaved a beautiful tale of life, death and hope. Very thought provoking!

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