How Many Oscar Best Picture Nominees will there be? A Poll!

We don’t know, for the second year in a row, whether there will be five or more nominees.  Voters pick five of their favorites. The Academy then counts them down using the preferential system, as they’ve done for decades.  The only difference now is that they include movies that reach a certain threshold, or get very close to the five.

[poll id="7"]

Oscar Ballot Deadline 5pm Today – A (sort of) Cliffhanger

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The State of the Race: Fumbling At Last Towards Final Oscar Predictions

40 Comments

  1. Zach
    January 7, 2013

    I say 9 like the majority, but I have so many NGNG this year.

  2. January 7, 2013

    Argo
    Django Unchained (undeserved)
    Les Miserables (undeserved)
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Silver Kinings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    8 movies.

    Wish: The Perks of Being a Walkflower nominated.

  3. steve50
    January 7, 2013

    Going with 7 – which would be a shame, but there’s a clear line between the top five and the rest of the pack.

  4. January 7, 2013

    Looking over Critics Choice nominations and realized that Lincoln had record 13 nominations but Les Mis got 11 – Only two less and they were in categories where Les Mis wasn’t eligible: Adapted Screenplay and Score. So basically they are tied. We’ll see what happens with BAFTA and Oscar noms, but I still think it is Lincoln Vs. Les Mis when all is said and done.

  5. Reno
    January 7, 2013

    9

  6. Jason
    January 7, 2013

    If they could find nine films to nominate for Best Picture last year, then I don’t see how they could find any less than that this year, considering the number of quality films they have to choose from this time is much higher.

  7. Bryce Forestieri
    January 7, 2013

    5

    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Les Miz
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Argo

    LOL jk! but imagine that, many many people pissed.

  8. steve50
    January 7, 2013

    Jamie – I think there are 3 or 4 who could pull in double-digit noms (could be a record?), but I also think two of those could go home empty handed.

    Leaders getting noms by the buckets should be easy this time, but it’s the final push that will count.

  9. m1
    January 7, 2013

    I say six: Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, and Life of Pi. There are just too many great movies this year for there to be more. But I would love to be proven wrong.

    Alt. Moonrise Kingdom

    NGNG: Cloud Atlas

  10. PJ
    January 7, 2013

    I only have confidence to predict 8. SLP, Argo, Lincoln, Django, ZD30, Les Mis, Life of Pi, and Beasts. The maybe 9th spot between Best Exotic, Impossible, Master, etc is a toss up, IMO.

  11. karl
    January 7, 2013

    Argo
    Django Unchained
    The Impossible
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Rust and Bone
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

  12. Bball_Jake
    January 7, 2013

    7 or 8. No more or no less.
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Life of Pi
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Argo

    Its an easy year to predict!

  13. Chase
    January 7, 2013

    This year reminds me of 2010 when they easily filled all ten slots with deserving pictures (127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone). Last year, not so much (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’s inclusion made me throw things). While there are more than ten deserving films this year, I’m sticking with seven:

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Life of Pi
    Silver Lining Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    If 8? Django
    If 9? The Master
    If 10? Amour

    My NGNG pick is Amour. I’d cry tears of joy if it swooped in and knocked Django or Les Miserables out.

  14. January 7, 2013

    *sigh* I think I need to read the rules again.

    Anyhoo, I picked 7 but I fear less.

  15. Danemychal
    January 7, 2013

    At the NYFCC awards gala tonight, Field, DDL, Kushner AND Spielberg all showed up. Spielberg read the letter DDL sent him originally declining to play Lincoln. Really hope he breaks that out again in a televised event somehow, some way. Lincoln folks are really making this push. Reports are that Field has impressed the hell out of people two nights in a row now — in Palm Springs and now NY.

  16. Danemychal
    January 7, 2013

    Chase, but they could have easily filled 10 slots last year too if they picked the right films: Drive & Dragon Tattoo over ELIC and War Horse.

  17. January 7, 2013

    Ok guys, wait a minute. Didn’t they rank ten movies last year and only five this year? I think that’s a huge deal and will make it much more likely that we’ll get closer to five nominees. Don’t you think ranking fewer movies will make them more conservative? Meaning don’t you think they’ll be more likely to try to pick the “winners” instead of feeling free enough to pick their personal favorites?

    Or am I completely nanners and they picked five last year?

  18. Erik Anderson
    January 7, 2013

    9

    01. Argo
    02. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    03. Django Unchained
    04. Les Miserables
    05. Life of Pi
    06. Lincoln
    07. Moonrise Kingdom
    08. Silver Linings Playbook
    09. Zero Dark Thirty

    If they keep the same voting pattern/style I don’t see it ever being less than 8.

  19. Al Robinson
    January 7, 2013

    Best guess are these for noms:

    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

  20. rufussondheim
    January 7, 2013

    I voted for seven, but I hope there will be ten. And I hope it’s these ten (for now)

    Zero Dark Thirty
    Oslo, August 31st.
    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Les Miserables.
    Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
    How to Survive a Plague
    Safety Not Guaranteed
    Take This Waltz
    Argo
    The Kid With a Bike

  21. JP
    January 7, 2013

    Maybe 9. 6 locks. Django very likely. Beasts/Moonrise likely.

    Argo (LOCK)
    Beasts of the Southern Wild (vulnerable but has a large fanbase)
    Django Unchained (a bit vulnerable but still in… some Girl With the Dragon Tattoo feelings… but it’s Weinstein Company)
    Les Miserables (LOCK)
    Life of Pi (LOCK)
    Lincoln (LOCK)
    Moonrise Kingdom (vulnerable… but has built a fanbase and will get number ones; it’s Scott Rudin’s only bid this year)
    Silver Linings Playbook (LOCK)
    Zero Dark Thirty (LOCK)

    BUT… since the academy changed for 10 (or, after, up to 10) there was only one year without the WTF-Blind Side-ELIC. In 2010, we had a very set in the stone top 11. The only doubt was Winter’s Bone or The Town. And we usually have at least one WTF, not in a bad way in many cases, in the acting categories (Laura Linney, Kate Winslet deservingly for lead in The Reader, Maggie Gyllenhall, Javier Bardem and Max Von Sydow). My bet is the WTF could go to The Impossible, a kind of underrated film in my opinion. It was much better than I thought it would be. If there’s a 10, the logic would be The Master or Amour but… don’t know. I never believed in Amour for a BP nom and has always believed in The Master but some snubs were just too damaging for the PTA film. As much as I’m a fan of PTA’s job, I don’t think he is as respected as Malick and that give me some doubts about it pulling a Tree of Life thursday.

    And what is gonna be this year’s WTF in the acting categories? Ann Dowd, Dame Judi Dench for Skyfall…?

  22. g
    January 7, 2013

    I’m hoping for 9, it’s been a great year!

  23. January 7, 2013

    And what is gonna be this year’s WTF in the acting categories? Ann Dowd, Dame Judi Dench for Skyfall…?

    Guy Pearce for LAWLESS! BOOYAH!

    lol j/k I dunno. But there usually is something weird. But doesn’t the WTF generally show up at SAG first?

  24. Tero Heikkinen
    January 7, 2013

    Don’t count out Piranha 3DD. The power of Harvey Weinstein can never be underestimated. I keep hearing that he really wants to push Hasselhoff for Supporting, and I was invited to the Academy screening and ALLLLLL of them loved it. Standing ovation and not a dry eye in the theater. I’ve never seen such reaction. NEVAH.

  25. January 7, 2013

    Did Hasselhoff sing live though? And does the Academy have a German block?

  26. Tero Heikkinen
    January 7, 2013

    He did, and cut his hair, OMG!!!

    Not sure about the German members, though.

  27. Christophe
    January 7, 2013

    Plenty of contenders = votes spread all over the place = harder than ever to reach 5% votes = less nominees…. 5, 6, 7 at best

  28. Christophe
    January 7, 2013

    @christophe
    I hope I’m wrong and very bad at mathematical logic.

  29. arjecc
    January 8, 2013

    Argo
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    The Impossible
    Skyfall
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Zero Dark Thirty

  30. Christophe
    January 8, 2013

    @antoinette
    they already picked five last year, since pwc accountants admitted the choices beyond #5 were almost never taken into account and voters couldn’t find the inspiration to fill their ballots completely anyway.
    but like I said three comments ago, there are so many bp contenders this year, that votes will likely be spread in such a way, that only the biggest frontrunners can get in (the 5 usual suspects + 1 or 2 others like Pi or Moonrise).

  31. JP
    January 8, 2013

    There are many high quality films bidding for a BP nom this year but not exactly many of them. Apart from the 9 I previously listed, we have Amour, The Master,The Impossible, Skyfall and Marigold with a shot, even if it’s a small one. But in terms of quantity, just look at 2011. After top 9, there were TGWTDT, Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March, Bridesmaids and Drive. Basically the same quantity.

  32. Evan
    January 8, 2013

    Basically, I have no idea and that’s what is so fun about this year. A lot of people seem to think that in this competitive year, there will be as many if not more nominees than last year. It will be very interesting if that’s not the case, and I think it’s very possible. While it should be the case in theory, I see no reason why this system should facilitate a correlation between the quality of the film year and the number of nominees.

  33. Gentle Benj
    January 8, 2013

    Now that the DGAs are in, I feel like it’s 6:

    ARGO
    LES MISERABLES
    LIFE OF PI
    LINCOLN
    SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
    ZERO DARK THIRTY

    It doesn’t seem l ike there are a lot of #1 votes out there for MOONRISE KINGDOM or DJANGO UNCHAINED, and though SKYFALL may be close, it’s probably not close enough.

    I could see THE MASTER or even AMOUR pulling a TREE OF LIFE to make it 7, but that’s about it.

    There’s a strong temptation to look for a film that could do what EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE did (overcome downright bad reviews and an almost total lack of other nominations). And I suppose if we’re gonna cram one of this year’s films into that mold, it’d be PROMISED LAND. But when it comes to tearjerking, fracking wank <<< 9/11. So, no.

  34. Rob Wills
    January 8, 2013

    I didn’t think it was a great year for movies. I have only scored 4 movies 9/10 at IMDb and no 10/10′s. A couple of those would only have scored 8.5 if I had been allowed to give half point ratings. Still waiting on a couple of movies, but still…where are this year’s classic films that will be watched over and over again with renewed pleasure? What am I missing? Maybe I’m too tough in my ratings.

  35. January 8, 2013

    I voted 7, Argo, Lincoln, ZD30, Lez Miz, SLP, Django and one wild card out of Life of Pi, Beasts, Amour, The Impossible, TDKR, Moonrise Kingdom, The Sessions or The Master. But seriously, I don’t see more than seven

  36. Sam
    January 8, 2013

    Argo

    Life of Pi

    Flight

    The Master

    Silver Linings Playbook

    Lincoln

    Les Miserables

    Django Unchained

    Zero Dark Thirty

    Moonrise Kingdom

    I thnk 10 or 8 , i doubt they will nominate The Master and Flight

  37. unlikely hood
    January 8, 2013

    JP – I made your exact case for WTF yesterday. First comment on the Seth MacFarlane story. Just FYI

  38. unlikely hood
    January 8, 2013

    Less than 8 noms, if that happens, will lead to more hand-wringing and calls for changes to the 2-year-old system

  39. RMP
    January 8, 2013

    It would be nice to see The Master and Moonrise Kingdom receive nominations, even though I was disappointed by both. There is still enough in each that they deserve some recognition (especially The Master), and I am a fan of both filmmakers.

    That being said, I think both will miss out, and we will have eight nominees:

    Zero Dark Thirty
    Lincoln
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Life of Pi
    Django Unchained
    Beasts of the Southern Wild

  40. Osman Jameel Khan
    January 8, 2013

    I think there will be 10

    Amour
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

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