We don’t know, for the second year in a row, whether there will be five or more nominees. Voters pick five of their favorites. The Academy then counts them down using the preferential system, as they’ve done for decades. The only difference now is that they include movies that reach a certain threshold, or get very close to the five.
I think there will be 10
Amour
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
It would be nice to see The Master and Moonrise Kingdom receive nominations, even though I was disappointed by both. There is still enough in each that they deserve some recognition (especially The Master), and I am a fan of both filmmakers.
That being said, I think both will miss out, and we will have eight nominees:
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Less than 8 noms, if that happens, will lead to more hand-wringing and calls for changes to the 2-year-old system
JP – I made your exact case for WTF yesterday. First comment on the Seth MacFarlane story. Just FYI
Argo
Life of Pi
Flight
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
I thnk 10 or 8 , i doubt they will nominate The Master and Flight
I voted 7, Argo, Lincoln, ZD30, Lez Miz, SLP, Django and one wild card out of Life of Pi, Beasts, Amour, The Impossible, TDKR, Moonrise Kingdom, The Sessions or The Master. But seriously, I don’t see more than seven
I didn’t think it was a great year for movies. I have only scored 4 movies 9/10 at IMDb and no 10/10’s. A couple of those would only have scored 8.5 if I had been allowed to give half point ratings. Still waiting on a couple of movies, but still…where are this year’s classic films that will be watched over and over again with renewed pleasure? What am I missing? Maybe I’m too tough in my ratings.
Now that the DGAs are in, I feel like it’s 6:
ARGO
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
It doesn’t seem l ike there are a lot of #1 votes out there for MOONRISE KINGDOM or DJANGO UNCHAINED, and though SKYFALL may be close, it’s probably not close enough.
I could see THE MASTER or even AMOUR pulling a TREE OF LIFE to make it 7, but that’s about it.
There’s a strong temptation to look for a film that could do what EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE did (overcome downright bad reviews and an almost total lack of other nominations). And I suppose if we’re gonna cram one of this year’s films into that mold, it’d be PROMISED LAND. But when it comes to tearjerking, fracking wank <<< 9/11. So, no.
Basically, I have no idea and that’s what is so fun about this year. A lot of people seem to think that in this competitive year, there will be as many if not more nominees than last year. It will be very interesting if that’s not the case, and I think it’s very possible. While it should be the case in theory, I see no reason why this system should facilitate a correlation between the quality of the film year and the number of nominees.
There are many high quality films bidding for a BP nom this year but not exactly many of them. Apart from the 9 I previously listed, we have Amour, The Master,The Impossible, Skyfall and Marigold with a shot, even if it’s a small one. But in terms of quantity, just look at 2011. After top 9, there were TGWTDT, Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March, Bridesmaids and Drive. Basically the same quantity.
@antoinette
they already picked five last year, since pwc accountants admitted the choices beyond #5 were almost never taken into account and voters couldn’t find the inspiration to fill their ballots completely anyway.
but like I said three comments ago, there are so many bp contenders this year, that votes will likely be spread in such a way, that only the biggest frontrunners can get in (the 5 usual suspects + 1 or 2 others like Pi or Moonrise).
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
The Impossible
Skyfall
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
@christophe
I hope I’m wrong and very bad at mathematical logic.
Plenty of contenders = votes spread all over the place = harder than ever to reach 5% votes = less nominees…. 5, 6, 7 at best
He did, and cut his hair, OMG!!!
Not sure about the German members, though.
Did Hasselhoff sing live though? And does the Academy have a German block?
Don’t count out Piranha 3DD. The power of Harvey Weinstein can never be underestimated. I keep hearing that he really wants to push Hasselhoff for Supporting, and I was invited to the Academy screening and ALLLLLL of them loved it. Standing ovation and not a dry eye in the theater. I’ve never seen such reaction. NEVAH.
And what is gonna be this year’s WTF in the acting categories? Ann Dowd, Dame Judi Dench for Skyfall…?
Guy Pearce for LAWLESS! BOOYAH!
lol j/k I dunno. But there usually is something weird. But doesn’t the WTF generally show up at SAG first?
I’m hoping for 9, it’s been a great year!
Maybe 9. 6 locks. Django very likely. Beasts/Moonrise likely.
Argo (LOCK)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (vulnerable but has a large fanbase)
Django Unchained (a bit vulnerable but still in… some Girl With the Dragon Tattoo feelings… but it’s Weinstein Company)
Les Miserables (LOCK)
Life of Pi (LOCK)
Lincoln (LOCK)
Moonrise Kingdom (vulnerable… but has built a fanbase and will get number ones; it’s Scott Rudin’s only bid this year)
Silver Linings Playbook (LOCK)
Zero Dark Thirty (LOCK)
BUT… since the academy changed for 10 (or, after, up to 10) there was only one year without the WTF-Blind Side-ELIC. In 2010, we had a very set in the stone top 11. The only doubt was Winter’s Bone or The Town. And we usually have at least one WTF, not in a bad way in many cases, in the acting categories (Laura Linney, Kate Winslet deservingly for lead in The Reader, Maggie Gyllenhall, Javier Bardem and Max Von Sydow). My bet is the WTF could go to The Impossible, a kind of underrated film in my opinion. It was much better than I thought it would be. If there’s a 10, the logic would be The Master or Amour but… don’t know. I never believed in Amour for a BP nom and has always believed in The Master but some snubs were just too damaging for the PTA film. As much as I’m a fan of PTA’s job, I don’t think he is as respected as Malick and that give me some doubts about it pulling a Tree of Life thursday.
And what is gonna be this year’s WTF in the acting categories? Ann Dowd, Dame Judi Dench for Skyfall…?
I voted for seven, but I hope there will be ten. And I hope it’s these ten (for now)
Zero Dark Thirty
Oslo, August 31st.
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Les Miserables.
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
How to Survive a Plague
Safety Not Guaranteed
Take This Waltz
Argo
The Kid With a Bike
Best guess are these for noms:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
9
01. Argo
02. Beasts of the Southern Wild
03. Django Unchained
04. Les Miserables
05. Life of Pi
06. Lincoln
07. Moonrise Kingdom
08. Silver Linings Playbook
09. Zero Dark Thirty
If they keep the same voting pattern/style I don’t see it ever being less than 8.
Ok guys, wait a minute. Didn’t they rank ten movies last year and only five this year? I think that’s a huge deal and will make it much more likely that we’ll get closer to five nominees. Don’t you think ranking fewer movies will make them more conservative? Meaning don’t you think they’ll be more likely to try to pick the “winners” instead of feeling free enough to pick their personal favorites?
Or am I completely nanners and they picked five last year?
Chase, but they could have easily filled 10 slots last year too if they picked the right films: Drive & Dragon Tattoo over ELIC and War Horse.
At the NYFCC awards gala tonight, Field, DDL, Kushner AND Spielberg all showed up. Spielberg read the letter DDL sent him originally declining to play Lincoln. Really hope he breaks that out again in a televised event somehow, some way. Lincoln folks are really making this push. Reports are that Field has impressed the hell out of people two nights in a row now — in Palm Springs and now NY.
*sigh* I think I need to read the rules again.
Anyhoo, I picked 7 but I fear less.
This year reminds me of 2010 when they easily filled all ten slots with deserving pictures (127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone). Last year, not so much (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’s inclusion made me throw things). While there are more than ten deserving films this year, I’m sticking with seven:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Lining Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
If 8? Django
If 9? The Master
If 10? Amour
My NGNG pick is Amour. I’d cry tears of joy if it swooped in and knocked Django or Les Miserables out.
7 or 8. No more or no less.
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Master
Argo
Its an easy year to predict!
Argo
Django Unchained
The Impossible
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Rust and Bone
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
I only have confidence to predict 8. SLP, Argo, Lincoln, Django, ZD30, Les Mis, Life of Pi, and Beasts. The maybe 9th spot between Best Exotic, Impossible, Master, etc is a toss up, IMO.
I say six: Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, and Life of Pi. There are just too many great movies this year for there to be more. But I would love to be proven wrong.
Alt. Moonrise Kingdom
NGNG: Cloud Atlas
Jamie – I think there are 3 or 4 who could pull in double-digit noms (could be a record?), but I also think two of those could go home empty handed.
Leaders getting noms by the buckets should be easy this time, but it’s the final push that will count.
5
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miz
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
LOL jk! but imagine that, many many people pissed.
If they could find nine films to nominate for Best Picture last year, then I don’t see how they could find any less than that this year, considering the number of quality films they have to choose from this time is much higher.
9
Looking over Critics Choice nominations and realized that Lincoln had record 13 nominations but Les Mis got 11 – Only two less and they were in categories where Les Mis wasn’t eligible: Adapted Screenplay and Score. So basically they are tied. We’ll see what happens with BAFTA and Oscar noms, but I still think it is Lincoln Vs. Les Mis when all is said and done.
Going with 7 – which would be a shame, but there’s a clear line between the top five and the rest of the pack.
Argo
Django Unchained (undeserved)
Les Miserables (undeserved)
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Silver Kinings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
8 movies.
Wish: The Perks of Being a Walkflower nominated.
I say 9 like the majority, but I have so many NGNG this year.