Home / 85th Academy Awards / Oscar Ballot Deadline 5pm Today – A (sort of) Cliffhanger

Oscar Ballot Deadline 5pm Today – A (sort of) Cliffhanger

As the last remaining Oscar voters finish up their voting today and by 5pm the deadline will pass.  It will be interesting to see whether the Academy’s votes reflect what we would have otherwise known from the nominations thus far or whether they will be vastly different from the general picture we’re getting from the consensus votes.  Right now, I feel like there are a few movies whose fate is unknown and those include:

The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Middle of Nowhere

These film are likely to either hit or miss but haven’t thus far been strongly represented in the early awards. In other words, it could go either way.   The rest of them, though, seem fairly solid.  If any of the following aren’t nominated for Best Picture, it would count as an upset:

Two films have hit every marker so far, including the Guild nominations:
Lincoln, Argo – SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, ADG, Globe for director, AFI, NBR

One film has almost the same but minus a SAG ensemble nod:
Zero Dark Thirty -SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, ADG, Globe for director, AFI, NBR

And the fourth lock has all but any SAG nominations:
Life of Pi – WGA, PGA, ADG, Globe for director, AFI

And hanging in but missing the all-important Globe nod for Director:
Silver Linings Playbook – SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, AFI, NBR

Les Miserables – SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, ADG, AFI, NBR

To me, Best Picture has for a while now and remains:

Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild

If there are ten nominees, that tenth place could be taken by: Skyfall, Amour, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Dark Knight Rises.


AFI – Top Ten Movies of the Year
Boston – Actor, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
New York Film Critics – Actor, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
National Board of Review – Top Ten Movies of the Year

Critics Choice – 13 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Score, Costumes, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup, Ensemble
Golden Globes – 7 Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Score
Screen Actors Guild – 4 Ensemble, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress


AFI Movie of the Year
Los Angeles Film Critics – Screenplay
National Board of Review Top Ten Films

Golden Globes 5 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Score
Screen Actors Guild 2 Ensemble, Supporting Actor

Zero Dark Thirty

AFI – Top Ten Movies of the Year
Boston – Film, Director, Editing
Los Angeles Film Critics – Editing
National Board of Review – Film, Director, Actress
New York Film Critics – Film, Director, Cinematography

Critics Choice – 5 Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing
Golden Globes – 4 Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay
Screen Actors Guild – 1 Best Actress

Silver Linings Playbook

AFI Top Ten Films
Toronto Audience Award
National Board of Review  3 – Top Ten Films, Actress, Screenplay
Los Angeles Film Critics: Best Actress

Critics Choice: 10 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Actor in a Comedy, Actor, Best Comedy, Supporting Actor, Ensemble, Actress in a Comedy.
Golden Globes: 4 Picture, Screenplay, Actor, Actress
Screen Actors Guild: 4 Ensemble, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor

Life of Pi

AFI Top Ten Film of the Year

Critics Choice: 9  Picture, Director, Screenplay, Best Young Actor, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, Editing, Visual EffectsGolden Globes: 3 Picture, Director, Score

Les Miserables

AFI Top Ten Film of the Year
National Board of Review – 2 Ensemble, Top Ten Films of the Year

Critics Choice: 11 Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume, Art Direction, Cinematography,  Editing, Makeup, Song, Acting Ensemble
Golden Globes: 4 Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Song

Django Unchained

AFI Top Ten Films of the Year
National Board of Review – 2 Supporting Actor, Top Ten Films

Critics Choice – 2 Picture, Screenplay
Golden Globes – 5 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor (2)

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Metacritic rating: 86
Box office: $11 million

AFI Movie of the Year
Cannes Film Fest – FIPRESCI Prize, Golden Camera, Prix Regards Jeune, Prize of the Ecumenical Jury – Special Mention
Deauville Film Fest – Best Film
Los Angeles Film Fest – Best Score, Best Supporting Actor
National Board of Review – 5 Best Breakthrough Performer, Best Directorial Debut, Breakthrough Performance – Female, Top Films
Sundance – Grand Jury Prize, Cinematography

Critics Choice – 3 Picture, Actress, Best Young Actor/Actress

Contenders that also made AFI”s Top Ten of the Year

Moonrise Kingdom
The Dark Knight Rises

Contenders that also made the National Board of Reviews Top Ten of the Year

The Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Promised Land

Contenders that also made the Critics Choice Top Ten:

Moonrise Kingdom
The Master

Films that really need some top level support to make it in:

The Dark Knight Rises
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Middle of Nowhere
Moonrise Kingdom
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

About Sasha Stone

Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.

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  1. At the moment I really just hope The Perks of Being a Wallflower is nominated for something. Come on Academy!!!!!!!!

    Last night I watched Compliance and I’d be very happy for Ann Dowd if she were nominated.

  2. I still worry that there will be 7 or less nominees. *worries*

  3. SAG > Art Directors

  4. Les Miz only has 4 GG nods.

  5. Again Middle of Nowhere is in that list because????? Any major win? even any major nomination so far? No and no…It is there just because of personal taste and preference at this point, I think…

    It is the least likely in that list to make it to any major category…again just my opinion. I know not making to BP nomination doesnt mean it is a bad movie, but making to that list requires more than wishful thinking….

  6. I think The Impossible should be instead of Middle of Nowhere…

  7. @zizo
    exactly, watched it today and was completely blown away… i expected it to be cheesy and overly sentimental, which it was but I loved every minute of it. it could be the end of the year last minute spoiler. sure the story ain’t perfect but the performances are amazing: that holland kid is incredible, watts is a lock for best actress and mcgregor could very well take a spot as bsa. though it probably won’t get a nom for it, the direction is mind-blowing, a huge technical prowess. kudos to everyone involved!

  8. I remain rather optimistically confident that ‘Amour’ will have enough passion votes to secure a Best Pic nod. And, though seemingly silly, I believe that even if it misses a Best Pic slot, Haneke will “surprise” with a Best Director nod. Director’s Branch, don’t let me down :)

  9. If there are ten nominees, that tenth place could be taken by: Skyfall, Amour, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Dark Knight Rises.

    The Dark Knight Rises wouldn’t get in over The Master in a month of Sundays. No no no.

    Also, Middle of Nowhere doesn’t have a hope. About as much of a chance as I have at being nominated for Best Supporting Actress.

    The Impossible should be there fo sho. It has a very realistic shot at a surprise Best Picture nomination.

  10. Last minute request to Academy members, please consider the cast of The Impossible:

    Tom Holland for Best Actor
    Naomi Watts for Best Actress
    Ewan McGregor for Best Supporting Actor


  11. extra request: if you hesitate about voting for tom holland in the lead category, you can also consider him for best supporting actor, he might actually have a chance to win this thing, so yeah maybe supporting is better after all… it’s up to you anyway, have fun!

  12. Add me to the list of “The Impossible” supporters. Summit should have released it earlier. You should read audience reactions on Twitter.

    Please Academy – Listen to Reese Witherspoon and Angelina Jolie, lol. Nominate “The Impossible” Damn It!

  13. @kb
    the marketing/communication for the impossible was so bad. for ex here in france, we didn’t even hear abt the movie on tv or anything. I knew abt it from movie blogs but the general media were completely mum like it was some obscure indie movie or smth, when in fact it is a big heartfelt spectacle made for mainstream audiences.

  14. Surely you are not saying TDKR has more of a BP shot than the Master. TDKR has been NOWHERE this awards season. I agree the Master is a long shot, but still a more likely alternate than TDKR

  15. Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Life of Pi
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables

    Of these frontrunners, I’m guessing that at least one will (surprisingly) fail.

    Two of these, from the back of the pack, will suddenly come to life:
    The Master
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom
    The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    Middle of Nowhere

    Final prediction is seven BP nominees, maybe eight. Prepare your best groans.

  16. OOPS – forgot to add The Impossible to the second list.

  17. My last minute PLEASE LEAST for academy members include:


    * THE MASTER – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Supporting Actor

    * BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD – Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor

    * THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER – Screenplay, Supporting Actor

    * RUBY SPARKS – screenplay

    * KILLER JOE – anything! Picture/Actor/S Actress/S Actor

    * HOLY MOTORS – Dennis Levant best actor

    * SAMUEL L JACKSON – for Django supporting actor

  18. Les Mis doesn’t have a WGA nod.

  19. Summit had two fine movies this year and didn’t have good campaigns: Perks of Being a Wallflower and The Impossible. Shame on Summit! All that money they made on Twilight they could have tried harder.

  20. “Also, Middle of Nowhere doesn’t have a hope. About as much of a chance as I have at being nominated for Best Supporting Actress.”

    Actually, Paddy, I have your chances ranked as somewhere between Samantha Barks and Amanda Seyfried.

  21. Do people walk their ballots down to Oscar headquarters at the last minute?

  22. As I’ve said before, the biggest crime this season is that Sam Mendes and Skyfall is getting, not only a pass, but awards and praise for essentially re-making Dark Knight, while Nolan is the outsider again and again.

    Kind of ugly in my opinion

  23. @Antoinette:

    I think I remember reading once, maybe on Steve Pond’s The Wrap, that there’s traditionally a rush of ballots that arrive by mail or are hand delivered on deadline day.

  24. somewhere between Samantha Barks and Amanda Seyfried

    I had a dream that was exactly that.


  25. @Robert Thanks. I was just thinking if people did that it might be fun to watch. Like someone running in slow motion with a huge countdown clock overhead with 10 seconds to spare. :)

    Hey maybe we should have a countdown party. I made a clock.

  26. As I write this there’s just 5 minutes till the balloting closes. So I’ll stick my neck out and say the Academy will nominate 7 films this year.

    Early favourite THE MASTER seems to have too limited appeal, SKYFALL too wide appeal and I’m not sure why everyone keeps tipping MOONRISE KINGDOM – didn’t pick up anything at Cannes in competition. Wes Anderson is too much an acquired taste. Would love to be proved wrong about SKYFALL.

  27. You know, right now, The Master and Moonrise Kingdom are 2 and 3 on Poland’s list of Top Tens. Ahead of everything here but ZD30. Moonrise has PGA,WGA and what else?

  28. *throws confetti*

  29. Just got back from Zero Dark Thirty and at this point I can’t imagine it losing Best Picture. I don’t know how anyone could watch this movie and not be swept away by the final act. It’s so expertly done, it’s so tense, it’s so emotional. It’s just so fucking perfect.

    Jessica Chastain is astounding. Only a great director and editor could have put together this performance since it escalates in intensity so gradually, and at times forcefully. And when she opens the body bag and gets on the plane the performance just becomes one of the great recent performances. There is no way that she loses Best Actress.

    There is no way it loses Best Editing either. Or Screenplay.

    Chalk it up for at least 5 wins. Probably more (cinematography, score)

    Really, I just can’t imagine anyone voting against it.

  30. And this “character guide” for Les Miz is pretty fun…


  31. “The all-important Globe nod for Director”

    Lolz. What a ridiculous assertion.

  32. The Japanese Viewer

    Thank you for the brief stats and comparisons, Sasha. It makes Oscars watch much more engaging and enjoyable besides the educative value.

    I wish there could be ten titles and not fewer included on this year’s final list for Best Picture. For such a relatively good year as this ten different titles included should not be too much to wish for in my opinion.

    I haven’t seen AMOUR just yet. But personally, virtually anything French (besides – don’t laugh – American) in film and music is already a cup of Japanese tea to me, en plus de plus EW’s Owen G., one of a few critics whose opinion matters to me, well if my mem serves me far too well, also has recently written some nice and kind words about this seemingly wonderful piece; so, I am eagerly looking forward to it.

    I believe Ang Lee will also make it for the Best Director nom besides all the (three) locks. And I wish either Tarantino, who is one of my favorite director and writer, or O. Russell would make the final slot for Best Director as well.

  33. So – rufus – what’s your take on the whole torture debate, now that you have seen ZDT? It must have impressed you one way or the other? Or is it a politically manufactured issue?

  34. Des Brown,
    If Moonrise Kingdom is such an acquired taste, why/how did it manage $45m+ at the US box office??

  35. And to add to what Andrew says…

    criticstopten.com collects top ten lists and compiles an overall listing of those films deemed “best” of the year.

    Right now, Moonrise Kingdom sits in 3rd place, right behind Zero Dark Thirty (1) and The Master (2), and ahead of Holy Motors (4) and Lincoln (5).

    It appears on 214 top ten lists and is in first place on 25 of them.

    It has no controversy whirling about it, it’s gorgeous, funny and great, and it is definitely a player.

  36. Why are people hating on Middle of Nowhere (or hating on Sasha’s decision to include it on the list)? I mean, I don’t think it will get any noms…but it’s still a small contender. It won a Gotham Award and a Sundance Film Award, and was nominated for a few Independent Spirit Awards. It deserves to be on that list as much as Arbitrage and Compliance.

    First rule of the Oscars…expect the unexpected. I think JC Chandor would agree with that statement.

  37. Moonrise Kingdom just feels like the Academy’s ‘quirky’ choice this year, after Beasts of the Southern Wild, of course. (There’s room for two on a list of 9-10) Its a beautiful little bauble filled with name actors. Its sweet and nostalgic, two traits lacking in the other considered films. I think its in.

  38. Just saw The Impossible. Wow.

    Tom Holland, Watts, Mcgregor all deserving of nods. And that sound design? Holy crap.

  39. All I want for Chr… for Oscars this year is Looper and Perks for Screenplay, and Beasts of the Southern Wild for BP. My other dreams have no chance, but these are real possibilities. Also Amour for Best Director (but no BP so Beasts don’t get cut). Heck, so many great movies this year, it’s almost impossible to just choose 10.
    Tomorrow I’ll be finally seeing Life of Pi. Still waiting for 4-5 contenders to be shown on cinema here on Chile anyway.

  40. First rule of the Oscars…expect the unexpected. I think JC Chandor would agree with that statement.

    Yup and the In the Loop writers and Demian Bichir. Their Middle of Nowhere hate is typical thinly veiled racism and sexism all rolled in one. If the writer/director were a young white guy who’d won at Sundance no one would say squat.

  41. Quietly wishing for some Impossible love.

  42. All I wish for is a surprise nomination for Suraj Sharma for Best Actor. He carries the whole film.

  43. just saw the paperboy. kidman needs to go sit down because she was just OK. dowd was ten times better and deserves her spot. shell have to wait until next year, sorry! what else…saw django unchained. waltz was good but i definitely thought jackson was a scene stealer as well. on what planet does dicaprio get more awards attention than him? loved the movie though! definitely pulling for jackson nom. because this was his best role in like…a long while..

    silver linings..cooper and deniro were nothing special. thought lawrence did a terrific job. again LOVED the movie.

    still have like 5 more movies to see but seriously acting wise i am not impressed this year!! movie wise..loving it! ZDT, Les Miz, Hitchcock, The Impossible..coming up next.

  44. Steve50,(and Rufus)

    In regards to the torture debate, what Sasha wrote in her article is what I agree with. She wrote in part

    “So, to me, that tells me that perhaps Boal doesn’t realize that the sequence of events in Zero Dark Thirty amount to torture was used, torture works. That Boal still doesn’t realize it makes me think he didn’t realize that what they put on film they would be held to such strict accountability for.  I don’t think you can undo that aspect of the film.”

    To me, the film is sympathetic to torture victims as evidenced in the movie, and sympathetic to the people delivering the torture, also as evidenced in the movie. I don’t think the aim of Boal and Bigelow was to connect the two, as a lot happens between the first breadcrumb being thrown and the inevitable finale, but when held under a microscope…it’s there, murky, but there. I think the aim of the first act was more about establishing Maya as a character than anything else.

    As for Rufus proclamation on its Oscar potential…? He may be right. I thought it was just average. I enjoyed the rapport between Clarke and Chastain in the beginning, then it all went a bit stale.

  45. I want to all Regina George on Sasha.

    “Sasha…..stop try

  46. I want to all Mean Girls Regina on Sasha.

    “Sasha…..stop trying to make Middle of Nowhere happen. It’s never going to happen”

  47. Brooke. How can I subscribe to your newsletter?

  48. The Japanese Viewer

    Correction of my own comments: I wish either Tarantino, who is one of my favorite directors/writers, or O. Russell would make the final slot for Best Director as well.

  49. Just saw Les Miz. Jackman and Redmayne are great. I hope the latter gets a surprise nom. But the film is less than the stage musical. Those songs are so pretty they are meant to be sung pretty. Crowe is a fucking head scratcher. What was Tom Hooper thinking?

  50. Final Predictions:


    Zero Dark Thirty
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Les Miserables

    Movies that will likely to get in.

    Django Unchained just because it’s Tarantino
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom
    The Master
    The Impossible
    Skyfall just because of the PGA nod.

    So finally I’m predicting:

    Django Unchained, The Impossible, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom and The Master to get in.

  51. Their Middle of Nowhere hate is typical thinly veiled racism and sexism all rolled in one. If the writer/director were a young white guy who’d won at Sundance no one would say squat.

    Who exactly is being racist and/or sexist, Sasha?

  52. Just saw Zero Dark Thirty last night – the last film in the awards list that I needed to catch. Movie was ok, but not mind blowing. And I’m not sure how Jessica Chastain is considered a front runner for Best Actress. Unless walking around with your arms crossed and a perplexed or worried look on your face is what makes a great performance, I can think of 6 or 7 women this year who deserve to go before her.

  53. @patrickr

    I also don’t get her performance at all. The film is a technical masterpiece though.

  54. Ryan,

    sometime ago you said that in this site you will not allow people to use “racism” accusations easily…But now as always Sasha accuses people of being a racist (and sexist too)WHY? Because some people including myself dont think that her darling movie will get major nominations.Just like many other very well made movies will not get nominations because they are not big enough! Thats the case as we know for many cases…

    Just because someone doesnt think that small movie will not any major nomination, and that small movie happens to be made by African Americans doesnt make that person a racist. This is STUPID!

    if you look at it from a different perspective, it seems that the only reason Sasha keeps talking about that movie is that it was made an African American director/writer etc. So, couldnt this be racism too???? But noone calls her racist, or if they did they would be deleted or even banned from this site. So your standards should go both ways. Nothing gives Sasha or anyone else the right to call someone a racist…She needs to get over it. If she thinks she has reasons to think some movies will/may get nominated, others may have their own reasons, and trust me it is not all about racism…And dont say this is her site. No matter where, you cannot make accusations.
    As always, if you expect the readers/commenters follow some guidelines, it should start with you and Sasha. You are the ones that should set the tone here.

  55. Steve – I haven’t really followed the torture debate too much, I read a couple of articles at first and both sides made good points, but obviously I wanted to see the movie myself so I just stopped paying attention. You should also know that I am against waterboarding, believe it is torture and that those who ordered such techniques should be held accountable for war crimes. We also know that it was indeed used and that most believe that it doesn’t work. Long before the film came out I also read an account that waterboarding was believed to not play a factor in the chain of events that led to the capture of bin Laden.

    With all that said, I don’t think the film contradicts anything I’ve said above, although it is a very fine line.

    Yes, it’s true they did waterboard the first guy in the film and did a couple of other things that were probably considered torture, but some things, like making him stand there, keeping him awake and playing loud music are not considered torture. So it’s important to know what constitutes torture under the Geneva Conventions and what does not. Someone saying randomly “I was tortured” shouldn’t be taken as fact that he was tortured, after all if you were forced to stay awake for 96 hours and listening to Slayer at high volume, you would call it torture, but the Geneva Conventions would not.

    Now back to the first guy in the film, the one they clearly showed waterboarding who first gave them the name of the courier and some other names. Yes, he was tortured. No, the torture did not result in the giving of those names. He gave the names up when they were treating them kindly.

    But, only because they tortured him first! you say. Well, perhaps, perhaps not. It’s not like the movie detailed these events in all that much detail. We don’t know how long the “interrogations” lasted, we don’t know what percentage of the “interrogations” were technically torture and so forth. By all means maybe he would have given the names up without ever being waterboarded. Maybe he took longer to give up the names because he was waterboarding. The waterboarding might have increased his resolve. He could have thought “I am not giving up these names to these barbarians.” We simply don’t know. Nor does anyone else.

    What we do know, if the film is correct, is that he did not give up the names while being tortured. He gave up the names when he was given tasty fruit to eat.

    As for the guy later who said the trailer line “You will never find him, he is one of the disappeared” well he gave up the info quite easily there but he did say the line “I don’t want to be tortured again.” This is a curious case. But it’s important to note, again, that he didn’t give up the info (and it was info he would have recognized was valuable even back then) while being tortured.

    It’s indeed a fine line, does it work, does it not? I don’t think the film establishes it either way conclusively. But I’m more inclined to say the film does not suggest torture works. And that if people believe otherwise, than I suggest they take a few science classes, learn how to form a hypothesis, test a hypothesis and then come to a conclusion. Because they need that kind of critical thinking to see what’s going on here.


    As for the movie, I’m shocked, utterly shocked, that someone would just say this movie was OK. After I got off the internet last night and tried to do some reading, I couldn’t. I just sat there in amazement, in awe, thinking about the movie.

    It’s such an overwhelming experience, I still can’t properly write about it. But I can say this is definitely a movie that people will “feel” even though it is technically based and not at least on the surface manipulative (except for the inclusion of the 911 calls at the outset, but I think that’s fair, making the viewer go back to the events of the day, even if it was in such an intensely personal way.)

  56. So is that your new #1 this year, Rufus? I seriously cannot wait for next Friday when it goes wide here.

  57. Thanks for your take, rufus. I have to wait another week, at least.

  58. @patrickr

    What else is new??? Chastain is considered a frontrunner in the Best Actress race becuase 1.)people are saying that her role is ala Carrie Mathison; 2.) It was a film by Bigelow; 3.) The movie is a BP frontrunner; 4.)Sole female in a movie about Bin Laden…

    And the Lawrence, the one closely to spoil Chastain’s chances could perfectly fit in a supporting role… So good luck to Watts, Cotillard, Knightley or Riva… Though I have high hopes for Watts for an upset… Would love to see one of them win instead of these two frontrunners…

  59. So…last year was kinda crappy for movies and we get 10 nominees. This year is fantastic and we might only get 7 or 8?

  60. Last year we got nine nominees, or 8 films and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

  61. Ryan, 2012: “You’re all on warning. Anyone who calls anyone else a racist from here on out will be banned. You should all be ashamed of yourselves.”

    Sasha, 2013: “Their Middle of Nowhere hate is typical thinly veiled racism and sexism all rolled in one.”


  62. Sasha seems to continually be underrating The Master’s chances. I think it will likely sneak in, and out of your group mentioned, Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall & Marigold will NOT get in. Only Amour is similar to The Master.

    If it comes down to The Master & Moonrise Kingdom, im betting on The Master. Something else like The Impossible would have to come along and steal votes to stop this happening.

  63. “Last year we got nine nominees, or 8 films and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.”

    Mattoc shoots, he scores!

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