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Looking at the actual nominations, Amour is really loved by the Academy and they might give the BP award to Amour. It will be Amour/Lincoln race from now on. ZD30, Argo and Les Miz have no realistic BP chance.
WTF? No Ben Affleck for Directing and No Leonardo DiCaprio for Supporting?!? Yay for Jacki Weaver though for Supporting!
After much thinking including a thorough analysis of the TITLES of the short films, I came up with this set of predictions:
Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Les Misérables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Lead Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Best Lead Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (De Rouille et d’Os)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour, Austria
The Intouchables, France
Kon-Tiki, Norway
A Royal Affair (En Kongelig Affære), Denmark
Sister (L’Enfant d’en Haut), Switzerland
Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Snow White and the Huntsman
Best Sound Mixing
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Sound Editing
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Original Score
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Best Original Song
“Learn Me Right,” Brave
“Skyfall,” Skyfall
“Still Alive,” Paul Williams: Still Alive
“Suddenly,” Les Misérables
“Touch the Sky,” Brave
Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
The Painting (Le Tableau)
ParaNorman
Wreck-It Ralph
Best Documentary Feature
Bully
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
Searching for Sugar Man
This is Not a Film (In Film Nist)
Best Live Action Short Film
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Kiruna-Kigali
9 meter
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Education of Mohammad Hussein
Inocente
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
Best Animated Short Film
Adam and Dog
Combustible (Hi no Yôjin)
Dripped
Fall of the House of Usher
Paperman
PS: I won’t be watching the announcements live, 5:30 AM is damn too early, so good luck to Lincoln and Les Misérables.
Sasha, your tweets now have me convinced that The Impossible will get a BP nom. The whole Hollywood Feeling Good About Itself thing with Argo sorta seems to be at play with this film. If this does happen, I don’t see Watts losing.
what exact time is the full nominee list available? and is it only at oscar? is it during or right after mcfarlane and stone present? and finally, do some people get it a few minutes earlier?
Thanks for the heads up A.J. Now I know where to watch them.
@ Patrick
You have brought up an excellent argument. I didn’t know this thing about the preferential ballots in the 30s and 40s. Somehow I’ve been thinking that Argo is 1) neither going to be one of the top 3/4 or even 5 film with the most nominations and 2) that the difference between its nominations and Lincoln’s are likely gonna be, at the very very best for Argo, 4.
Number 2 didn’t prevent only A Beautiful Mind from winning in the past two or three decades. Even Traffic, who is the only film or one of the very very few that won Directing/Screenplay/Editing/an acting award and still lost BP.
I wish they announced everything in random order. It would be a lot exciting.
This is my favorite awards day too.
The best one for me was 2004 (screaming when Fernando Meirelles got nominated… and then there was Johnny Depp, Naomi Watts, Shohreh Aghadashloo (my NGNG prediction that paid off), Djimon Hounsou).
The worst one is by miles and miles and miles far 2009 (the proof that you can have a lousy BP lineup in a good year… they lacked the guts to nominate the two blockbusters).
I posted this in the wrong thread just now.
Just a last minute thing that I wanted to point out. Here’s a list of all the years when the Oscars used a preferential voting system to pick the Best Picture winner:
1934: It Happened One Night – 5 (2nd most)
1935: Mutiny On The Bounty – 7 (most)
1936: The Great Ziegfeld – 7 (most)
1937: The Life Of Emile Zola – 10 (most)
1938: You Can’t Take It With You – 7 (most)
1939: Gone With The Wind – 13 (most)
1940: Rebecca – 11 (most)
1941: How Green Was My Valley – 10 (2nd most)
1942: Mrs. Miniver – 12 (most)
1943: Casablanca – 8 (3rd most)
1944: Going My Way – 10 (most)
1945: The Lost Weekend – 7 (2nd most)
2009: The Hurt Locker – 9 (most)
2010: The King’s Speech – 12 (most)
2011: The Artist – 10 (2nd most)
I’ve listed the number of nominations that the Best Picture winner received, as well as where it ranked in terms of nominations (in brackets). Notice that:
For 10 of the 15 years, the Best Picture had the most nominations.
For 4 of the 15 years, the Best Picture had the 2nd most nominations.
For 1 of the 15 years, the Best Picture had the 3rd most nominations.
Takeaway:
Since the Best Picture winners are picked via preferential voting, and since the nominations for all categories are also picked via preferential voting, the Best Picture winners tend to be among the nomination leaders. I predict that Lincoln, Les Mis and Life Of Pi will lead the nominations this year.
I see what you mean Rufussondheim. Until things are official we still have hope our favorites might be nominated. It’s exciting. I just hate the disappointment if they aren’t ;). Which is what I’ll feel tomorrow if The Perks of Being a Wallflower doesn’t even score a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination :P.
Not sure if I’m the only one who thinks this, but tomorrow morning is far more exciting than Oscar night. Hopefully there will be some surprises.
Well, struck. It’s not likely that they’ll nominate THAT again, not even for Daldry.
OLIN, wasn’t it lovely? I was all ready to say that last year was a good year – not great but pretty good – when the 8 slots on the side had all been taken up. And then, WHAM! Daldry strikes again.
Anyone know if they’re sticking with that thing (that is totally directed at us, by the way) where they announce Best Picture in random order?
Time to crack open a new, more appropriate avatar!
See you in the morning!
Good Morning America (ABC)
Will they air live on TV? If so what channel?