Share

Predict the SAG and the PGA Awards

predictsag pga

SAG Contest

PGA Contest

We will be doing a longer preview for the SAG Awards closer to the event but our contest is open for business. The two big awards shows coming up, the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild should give us an idea of how things will go.

We are an Oscar race without a clear frontrunner right now.

It seems like it’s down to these three films: Lincoln, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.  Argo is missing a crucial Best Director nomination and Silver Linings Playbook is missing a DGA nomination. But because Silver Linings has an Oscar nod for director and four acting nominations it has a very good chance to win.  I still think we can’t totally count out Les Miserables, particularly for SAG, and Zero Dark Thirty.

The Producers Guild are about 4,700 and the vote with ten contenders using a preferential ballot. The SAG award voters are a much larger group, 100K of them and they use a weighted ballot.

Either way, by the end of next weekend the buzz will likely point in one direction or another.

38 Comments on this Post

  1. Astarisborn

    I differ for PGA
    It seems like its down to these three films:
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln

    Silver Linings Playbook will probably win SAG unfortunately.

  2. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    I agree on SAG. I think it will win Actress, Supporting Actor and ensemble. Silver Linings is absolutely up for PGA, though.

  3. I predicted Daniel Day-Lewis, Naomi Watts, Sally Field, Robert De Niro and Lincoln for Ensemble and the PGA

    BUT

    I can’t help but think Les Misérables will win the Ensemble category, the film is divisive for sure, but the performances were universally praised so I think if there will be one award the industry can agree this film deserves, that will be Ensemble…and just like last year (The Help) it will be strictly a way of honoring the stellar cast and not a viable Oscar-prediction for BP.

    Having said that, I do think the beloved Sally Field will pull off a surprise victory and knock out frontrunner Anne Hathaway. The Screen Actors Guild has a history of honoring somewhat underestimated veteran actresses in supporting actress (Lauren Bacall for The Mirror has two faces, Gloria Stuart for Titanic, Kathy Bates for Primary Colors, Judi Dench for Chocolat, Helen Mirren for Gosford Park, Ruby Dee for American Gangster), and considering how popular Field is among her peers, I think she will surprise.

    Same goes for Naomi Watts, she has such strong and high-profile peer-support (Robert Downey Jr, Mark Ruffalo, Reese Witherspoon, Edward Norton, Angelina Jolie) that even if she won’t win the Oscar, she does have an excellent shot at the SAG in my opinion…

    …and if that happens, they still ‘have to’ give something to Silver Linings Playbook, and I think they will LOVE the idea of giving living legend Robert De Niro his very first SAG award for his very first individual nomination.

  4. SAG: Phoenix (he need this to stop DDL now)
    Watts
    Hoffman
    Fiels (only cause she never won previously)

    Ensbl: I want Argo, but think they will go, unfortunately) for SLP or Les Mis.

    PGA: Argo. Nothing but Argo.

  5. “Lauren Bacall for The Mirror has two faces, Gloria Stuart for Titanic, Kathy Bates for Primary Colors, Judi Dench for Chocolat, Helen Mirren for Gosford Park, Ruby Dee for American Gangster”

    But all of those women won in a year that there weren’t a clear frontrunner like Hathaway is this year.

  6. Fabinho Flapp

    Unfortunately Joaquin Phoenix wasn’t nominated for SAG, I think the VERY distant runner-up is Hugh Jackman, maybe Bradley Cooper.

  7. Needless to say either of those two winning would be a MAJOR upset, and for now basically NGNG-material.

  8. Phanton,
    Yes!
    You was faster than me.
    I came here cause I forgot Phoenix WASN’T nominated.
    It’s a shame, isn’ t it?
    Freak insane year man…

  9. Anyway, one more for DDL.
    The last one, I hope…

  10. I know, VERY freak year indeed, although I must say I couldn’t pick 5 nominees for Best Actor this year, any way I see it, I have 6 favorites…SAG snubbed one of them (Phoenix) and the Academy snubbed another (Hawkes), but both had only 5 slots, so I can’t really blame them.

  11. Quite frankly, I’d be amazed if Les Mis DIDN’T win Best Ensemble, not only because it really deserves it, but also because it’s already won a few similar awards elsewhere. If not Les Mis, then I think Lincoln would be the clear second choice. SLP had a pair of great leads, but De Niro and Weaver’s performances have been rather exaggerated, so I’d be surprised if SAG leaned that way.

    As far as predictions:

    Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
    Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
    Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway
    Ensemble – Les Misérables (possibly Lincoln)

    PGA is way up in the air, but that’s what’s fascinating about it. Could be Argo, could be Lincoln, or Les Mis could come out of nowhere given the major support from the top three guilds. Can’t wait to see what they choose!

  12. I find it interesting that: Jennifer Lawrence, Anne Hathaway, Bradley Cooper, and Hugh Jackman are all presenting at the SAG awards. It could be a sign that will predetermine who wins. I’m thinking Jessica Chastain, Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones, and Daniel Day Lewis might conquer.

  13. My Prediction: Daniel Day Lewis My Choice: Hawkes
    My Prediction: Watts My Choice: Watts/Lawrence
    My Prediction: Deniro My Choice: BardemMy
    Prediction: Sally Feild My Choice: Sally Feild/kidman

  14. SIlver Linings has a great chance to take both PGA and SAG. If Little Miss Sunshine can do it, then so can SLP.

    SAG I think will go as follows:

    Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
    Actor: Day-Lewis
    Actress: Lawrence
    S. Actor: De Niro
    S. Actress: Hathaway (I can’t believe there is anyone seriously predicting someone else. lol)

  15. “I can’t believe there is anyone seriously predicting someone else. lol)”

    Me neither! hahahaha

    People said Sally Field would take the Critics Choice, then the Globes and now it’s the SAG, after she loses here too they will say she will win at the BAFTA LOL

  16. christiannnw

    I’m going all 2007 and predicting that “Silver Linings Playbook” will win the SAG ensemble prize but nothing else, just like “Little Miss Sunshine” in that year; both films have ensembles that are relatively small but excellent, the the generous amount of time each member is given to exercise their muscles makes it difficult to single out a sole performance worth awarding an individual acting prize. The other acting categories contain at least one performance that managed to standout from their respective film, so I’m going with those guys.

    Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
    Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Actress in a Leading Role: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Actor in a Supporting Role: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Actress in a Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

    Preferences:
    Ensemble: Lincoln
    Actor: John Hawkes (The Sessions)
    Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

  17. I predict “Lincoln” for PGA, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Lee Jones and Hathaway for SAG and (well, this is the only movie of the nominated five that is nominated for Oscar and won’t win in any other SAG category, I suppose, because Arkin can’t win, can he?) “Argo” for best cast. And “SkyFall” for best stunt ensemble.

  18. Best actor- Daniel Day Lewis
    Best actress- Jennifer Lawrence
    Best ensemble- Silver Linings
    Best director- Ben Affleck
    Best film- Lincoln

  19. Lincoln will win the PGA. No other choice there. I was amazed to see folks predicting SLP win.

  20. I hope De Niro loses this. First, it’s an average performance. Absolutely not award quality for me. And he has 2 Oscars already and a third is extremely rare and call me elitist and whatever you like, but he spent the last 10 years doing shit and now the first time he is in a film people like and he’s going to win?! That’s unfair. My money is on Tommy Lee Jones. I love the performance and he had a very good lead performance that nobody paid attention to.

  21. gbocampo

    Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook – If you’re updated, they had a lot of SAG screenings since the Oscar nominations. If it loses here, it’s out of the race.
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: ammmmmm, Jessica Chastain just because Lawrence is receiving mixed response from the people lately while Chastain in contrast is well liked. Plus “Mama” is on fire.
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones just because of the Golden Globe moment.
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

    Oscar wishlist..

    Picture: Amour
    Director: Michael Haneke
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
    Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln

  22. PGA: Lincoln. It’s making money.

    SAG: Actor: Day-Lewis, Actress: Chastain, Supp. Actor: Jones, Supp. Actress: Hathaway, Ensemble: Argo.

  23. I think that the SAG is way too predictable, in my opinion:

    Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis

    Actress
    Lawrence

    Supporting Actor
    Tommy Lee Jones

    Supporting Actress
    Hathaway

    Ensemble – As much as I loved SLP, I really want it to be Argo.. But it’s gonna be SLP

    PGA: It can only be Argo. Go Affleck!

  24. Sasha,

    I have a dumb but very innocent question.

    Can you briefly tell me the difference between a preferential ballot and a weighted ballot?

    I presume on a preferential ballot, you list your favorite film as #1, your second favorite film as #2, and so on. The scores for #1 are counted if a majority, or #2 if a majority, or #3 if a majority – that makes sense. But I’m not sure how a weighted ballot plays out.

  25. Bryce Forestieri

    Going out on a limb here based on some hard fresh data talked about in an erlier post. Increasingly clear that by Sunday—>>

    LINCOLN will have won both the PGA and the SAG-ensemble

    This is just a prediction, but on the ground it does feel like a done deal you guys.

    —————-forgive me for the repost——————

    You guys, I know the voting hasnt even started but I got some fresh intel,

    LINCOLN will sweep the Oscars

    LOCKED WINS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score

    GREAT CHANCE OF WINNING: Best Supporting Actor, Best Editing, Best Production Design

    And my sources tell me not to rule out:

    THE SHOCKER OF THE NIGHT: Sally Field wins Best Supporting Actress (this one will make many many bitch-ass punks shit in their pants with anger)

    By the way this is the same people who told me Tim Hooper would not make it right after his DGA nomination. Ya’ll remember that crazy moment when LES MIZ was again the frontrunner for like 8 hours??

  26. I see SLP as this years Little Miss Sunshine. Win at SAG and possible PGA win. It could also be the Ordinary People of the year as well.

  27. Shit, I didn’t think SLP was such a lock for Ensemble, it seems like all of you are predicting it. I put Lincoln and Tommy Lee for Supporting Actor. Lawrence to get Actress (unfortunately) and Washington to surprise by getting the SAG which will make zero difference at the Oscars.

    As for PGA, I predicted Argo, The Gatekeepers and Brave. But I’m thinking Lincoln has an equal amount of chance to get it.

  28. If you saw both performances you would not be LOLing over Sally Field’s chances of winning anything. She is a formidable contender in a strong role portraying a historical figure and very well liked in Hollywood particularly amongst older voters who comprise the bulk of the Academy.

    Last year most prognosticators did not think Meryl Streep had much of a shot at the Oscar and you know how that turned out.

  29. Robin Write

    If Robert De Niro beats Tommy Lee Jones, which I think he will, and Lincoln fails to win the Ensemble, which it will {fail that is}, Lincoln might not be damaged at all. But the Silver Linings Playbook win could be crucial. Are we looking at the Picture / Director split once again…

  30. Robert A.

    “I presume on a preferential ballot, you list your favorite film as #1, your second favorite film as #2, and so on. The scores for #1 are counted if a majority, or #2 if a majority, or #3 if a majority – that makes sense. But I’m not sure how a weighted ballot plays out.”

    Let’s say you get to vote for five movies to be nominated for Best Picture. If I understand it correctly, a weighted ballot would give a certain # of points (let’s say 10) for a #1 place ranking, a certain # for a #2 ranking (let’s say 8), and 6 for #3 and so on and so forth. So each of the five movies you voted for would score some points, but the ones higher on the list would score more.

    In a preferential ballot, your vote only counts toward one movie. Let’s say I rank The Master at #1. But The Master does not have enough other #1 votes to compete. My ballot is set aside and they now look at my #2 pick. Let’s say it’s Argo. Argo is still in competition and so my vote is considered an Argo vote.

    Let’s say my fake ballot is: 1) The Master 2) Argo 3) Amour 4) Lincoln 5) Moonrise Kingdom.

    Weighted system: The Master gets 10 points, Argo 8, Amour 6, Lincoln 4, Moonrise Kingdom 2.

    Preferential: Vote goes to Argo (because The Master doesn’t have enough #1’s) and that’s it.

    * This is a way oversimplified explanation of how it works, but I’m only offering it to illustrate the difference between the two voting systems. I’m not even going to get into that whole complicated “excess” rule…

  31. ARGO – Best film of 2012 by the Phoenix Film Critics!

  32. @ Robert A.

    Thank you!

  33. SAG AWARDS

    CAST
    Silver Linings Playbook

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Hugh Jackman

    ACTRESS IN AL LEADING ROLE
    Jennifer Lawrence

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Robert De Niro

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Anne Hathaway

  34. I don’t understand the PGA so…

    SAG predictions:

    Actor – Daniel Day Lewis
    Actress – Marion Cotillard
    Supporting Actor – Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Supporting Actress – Nicole Kidman
    Cast – Silver Linings Playbook

  35. Sag Awards

    Cast:
    Les Mis

    Lead Actor:
    Hugh Jackman

    *****************John Hawkes should win, he’s a terrific actor and a natural, not manufactured like many of the actors these days. This is his second SAG nom, first nom was supporting.

    Lead Actress:
    Jessica Chastain

    Supporting Actor:
    Tommy Lee Jones—who knows, any of them could win

    Supporting Actress:
    Anne Hathaway

  36. Emerson Jahar

    Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
    Lead Actor: Hugh Jackman (upset)
    Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

    No Guts, No Glory predix!

    Ensemble: Argo
    Lead Actor: Bradley Cooper
    Lead Actress: Marion Cotillard
    Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt

  37. PaulinJapan

    I don’t know why so many are picking SLP for the SAG ensemble. Sure it has a chance, but we can all admit Lincoln is favorite for the Oscar, and considering its sprawling cast of veterans it is definitely the most likely winner. SLP and Les Miz are fighting it out for number two.

    Argo won’t win SAG, but it will win PGA and DGA the next week, after which you’ll all be debating who’ll win the two horse race between it and Lincoln for Best Pic.

    Chastain to take home SAG actress (though I heard that the guild may not have received screeners. Streep lost SAG last year because they didn’t get Iron Lady screeners).

Leave a Comment

Warning: Do not abuse your right to comment here. You will be deleted.