We will be doing a longer preview for the SAG Awards closer to the event but our contest is open for business. The two big awards shows coming up, the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild should give us an idea of how things will go.
We are an Oscar race without a clear frontrunner right now.
It seems like it’s down to these three films: Lincoln, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. Argo is missing a crucial Best Director nomination and Silver Linings Playbook is missing a DGA nomination. But because Silver Linings has an Oscar nod for director and four acting nominations it has a very good chance to win. I still think we can’t totally count out Les Miserables, particularly for SAG, and Zero Dark Thirty.
The Producers Guild are about 4,700 and the vote with ten contenders using a preferential ballot. The SAG award voters are a much larger group, 100K of them and they use a weighted ballot.
Either way, by the end of next weekend the buzz will likely point in one direction or another.
I don’t know why so many are picking SLP for the SAG ensemble. Sure it has a chance, but we can all admit Lincoln is favorite for the Oscar, and considering its sprawling cast of veterans it is definitely the most likely winner. SLP and Les Miz are fighting it out for number two.
Argo won’t win SAG, but it will win PGA and DGA the next week, after which you’ll all be debating who’ll win the two horse race between it and Lincoln for Best Pic.
Chastain to take home SAG actress (though I heard that the guild may not have received screeners. Streep lost SAG last year because they didn’t get Iron Lady screeners).
Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
Lead Actor: Hugh Jackman (upset)
Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
No Guts, No Glory predix!
Ensemble: Argo
Lead Actor: Bradley Cooper
Lead Actress: Marion Cotillard
Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt
Sag Awards
Cast:
Les Mis
Lead Actor:
Hugh Jackman
*****************John Hawkes should win, he’s a terrific actor and a natural, not manufactured like many of the actors these days. This is his second SAG nom, first nom was supporting.
Lead Actress:
Jessica Chastain
Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones—who knows, any of them could win
Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway
I don’t understand the PGA so…
SAG predictions:
Actor – Daniel Day Lewis
Actress – Marion Cotillard
Supporting Actor – Philip Seymour Hoffman
Supporting Actress – Nicole Kidman
Cast – Silver Linings Playbook
SAG AWARDS
CAST
Silver Linings Playbook
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Hugh Jackman
ACTRESS IN AL LEADING ROLE
Jennifer Lawrence
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Robert De Niro
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Anne Hathaway
@ Robert A.
Thank you!
ARGO – Best film of 2012 by the Phoenix Film Critics!
“I presume on a preferential ballot, you list your favorite film as #1, your second favorite film as #2, and so on. The scores for #1 are counted if a majority, or #2 if a majority, or #3 if a majority – that makes sense. But I’m not sure how a weighted ballot plays out.”
Let’s say you get to vote for five movies to be nominated for Best Picture. If I understand it correctly, a weighted ballot would give a certain # of points (let’s say 10) for a #1 place ranking, a certain # for a #2 ranking (let’s say 8), and 6 for #3 and so on and so forth. So each of the five movies you voted for would score some points, but the ones higher on the list would score more.
In a preferential ballot, your vote only counts toward one movie. Let’s say I rank The Master at #1. But The Master does not have enough other #1 votes to compete. My ballot is set aside and they now look at my #2 pick. Let’s say it’s Argo. Argo is still in competition and so my vote is considered an Argo vote.
Let’s say my fake ballot is: 1) The Master 2) Argo 3) Amour 4) Lincoln 5) Moonrise Kingdom.
Weighted system: The Master gets 10 points, Argo 8, Amour 6, Lincoln 4, Moonrise Kingdom 2.
Preferential: Vote goes to Argo (because The Master doesn’t have enough #1’s) and that’s it.
* This is a way oversimplified explanation of how it works, but I’m only offering it to illustrate the difference between the two voting systems. I’m not even going to get into that whole complicated “excess” rule…
If Robert De Niro beats Tommy Lee Jones, which I think he will, and Lincoln fails to win the Ensemble, which it will {fail that is}, Lincoln might not be damaged at all. But the Silver Linings Playbook win could be crucial. Are we looking at the Picture / Director split once again…
If you saw both performances you would not be LOLing over Sally Field’s chances of winning anything. She is a formidable contender in a strong role portraying a historical figure and very well liked in Hollywood particularly amongst older voters who comprise the bulk of the Academy.
Last year most prognosticators did not think Meryl Streep had much of a shot at the Oscar and you know how that turned out.
Shit, I didn’t think SLP was such a lock for Ensemble, it seems like all of you are predicting it. I put Lincoln and Tommy Lee for Supporting Actor. Lawrence to get Actress (unfortunately) and Washington to surprise by getting the SAG which will make zero difference at the Oscars.
As for PGA, I predicted Argo, The Gatekeepers and Brave. But I’m thinking Lincoln has an equal amount of chance to get it.
I see SLP as this years Little Miss Sunshine. Win at SAG and possible PGA win. It could also be the Ordinary People of the year as well.
Going out on a limb here based on some hard fresh data talked about in an erlier post. Increasingly clear that by Sunday—>>
LINCOLN will have won both the PGA and the SAG-ensemble
This is just a prediction, but on the ground it does feel like a done deal you guys.
—————-forgive me for the repost——————
You guys, I know the voting hasnt even started but I got some fresh intel,
LINCOLN will sweep the Oscars
LOCKED WINS: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score
GREAT CHANCE OF WINNING: Best Supporting Actor, Best Editing, Best Production Design
And my sources tell me not to rule out:
THE SHOCKER OF THE NIGHT: Sally Field wins Best Supporting Actress (this one will make many many bitch-ass punks shit in their pants with anger)
By the way this is the same people who told me Tim Hooper would not make it right after his DGA nomination. Ya’ll remember that crazy moment when LES MIZ was again the frontrunner for like 8 hours??
Sasha,
I have a dumb but very innocent question.
Can you briefly tell me the difference between a preferential ballot and a weighted ballot?
I presume on a preferential ballot, you list your favorite film as #1, your second favorite film as #2, and so on. The scores for #1 are counted if a majority, or #2 if a majority, or #3 if a majority – that makes sense. But I’m not sure how a weighted ballot plays out.
I think that the SAG is way too predictable, in my opinion:
Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress
Lawrence
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress
Hathaway
Ensemble – As much as I loved SLP, I really want it to be Argo.. But it’s gonna be SLP
PGA: It can only be Argo. Go Affleck!
PGA: Lincoln. It’s making money.
SAG: Actor: Day-Lewis, Actress: Chastain, Supp. Actor: Jones, Supp. Actress: Hathaway, Ensemble: Argo.
Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook – If you’re updated, they had a lot of SAG screenings since the Oscar nominations. If it loses here, it’s out of the race.
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: ammmmmm, Jessica Chastain just because Lawrence is receiving mixed response from the people lately while Chastain in contrast is well liked. Plus “Mama” is on fire.
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones just because of the Golden Globe moment.
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Oscar wishlist..
Picture: Amour
Director: Michael Haneke
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
I hope De Niro loses this. First, it’s an average performance. Absolutely not award quality for me. And he has 2 Oscars already and a third is extremely rare and call me elitist and whatever you like, but he spent the last 10 years doing shit and now the first time he is in a film people like and he’s going to win?! That’s unfair. My money is on Tommy Lee Jones. I love the performance and he had a very good lead performance that nobody paid attention to.
Lincoln will win the PGA. No other choice there. I was amazed to see folks predicting SLP win.
Best actor- Daniel Day Lewis
Best actress- Jennifer Lawrence
Best ensemble- Silver Linings
Best director- Ben Affleck
Best film- Lincoln
I predict “Lincoln” for PGA, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Lee Jones and Hathaway for SAG and (well, this is the only movie of the nominated five that is nominated for Oscar and won’t win in any other SAG category, I suppose, because Arkin can’t win, can he?) “Argo” for best cast. And “SkyFall” for best stunt ensemble.
I’m going all 2007 and predicting that “Silver Linings Playbook” will win the SAG ensemble prize but nothing else, just like “Little Miss Sunshine” in that year; both films have ensembles that are relatively small but excellent, the the generous amount of time each member is given to exercise their muscles makes it difficult to single out a sole performance worth awarding an individual acting prize. The other acting categories contain at least one performance that managed to standout from their respective film, so I’m going with those guys.
Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Actress in a Leading Role: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Actor in a Supporting Role: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Preferences:
Ensemble: Lincoln
Actor: John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
“I can’t believe there is anyone seriously predicting someone else. lol)”
Me neither! hahahaha
People said Sally Field would take the Critics Choice, then the Globes and now it’s the SAG, after she loses here too they will say she will win at the BAFTA LOL
SIlver Linings has a great chance to take both PGA and SAG. If Little Miss Sunshine can do it, then so can SLP.
SAG I think will go as follows:
Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
Actor: Day-Lewis
Actress: Lawrence
S. Actor: De Niro
S. Actress: Hathaway (I can’t believe there is anyone seriously predicting someone else. lol)
My Prediction: Daniel Day Lewis My Choice: Hawkes
My Prediction: Watts My Choice: Watts/Lawrence
My Prediction: Deniro My Choice: BardemMy
Prediction: Sally Feild My Choice: Sally Feild/kidman
I find it interesting that: Jennifer Lawrence, Anne Hathaway, Bradley Cooper, and Hugh Jackman are all presenting at the SAG awards. It could be a sign that will predetermine who wins. I’m thinking Jessica Chastain, Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones, and Daniel Day Lewis might conquer.
Quite frankly, I’d be amazed if Les Mis DIDN’T win Best Ensemble, not only because it really deserves it, but also because it’s already won a few similar awards elsewhere. If not Les Mis, then I think Lincoln would be the clear second choice. SLP had a pair of great leads, but De Niro and Weaver’s performances have been rather exaggerated, so I’d be surprised if SAG leaned that way.
As far as predictions:
Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway
Ensemble – Les Misérables (possibly Lincoln)
PGA is way up in the air, but that’s what’s fascinating about it. Could be Argo, could be Lincoln, or Les Mis could come out of nowhere given the major support from the top three guilds. Can’t wait to see what they choose!
I know, VERY freak year indeed, although I must say I couldn’t pick 5 nominees for Best Actor this year, any way I see it, I have 6 favorites…SAG snubbed one of them (Phoenix) and the Academy snubbed another (Hawkes), but both had only 5 slots, so I can’t really blame them.
Anyway, one more for DDL.
The last one, I hope…
*You were
Phanton,
Yes!
You was faster than me.
I came here cause I forgot Phoenix WASN’T nominated.
It’s a shame, isn’ t it?
Freak insane year man…
Needless to say either of those two winning would be a MAJOR upset, and for now basically NGNG-material.
Fabinho Flapp
Unfortunately Joaquin Phoenix wasn’t nominated for SAG, I think the VERY distant runner-up is Hugh Jackman, maybe Bradley Cooper.
“Lauren Bacall for The Mirror has two faces, Gloria Stuart for Titanic, Kathy Bates for Primary Colors, Judi Dench for Chocolat, Helen Mirren for Gosford Park, Ruby Dee for American Gangster”
But all of those women won in a year that there weren’t a clear frontrunner like Hathaway is this year.
SAG: Phoenix (he need this to stop DDL now)
Watts
Hoffman
Fiels (only cause she never won previously)
Ensbl: I want Argo, but think they will go, unfortunately) for SLP or Les Mis.
PGA: Argo. Nothing but Argo.
I predicted Daniel Day-Lewis, Naomi Watts, Sally Field, Robert De Niro and Lincoln for Ensemble and the PGA
BUT
I can’t help but think Les Misérables will win the Ensemble category, the film is divisive for sure, but the performances were universally praised so I think if there will be one award the industry can agree this film deserves, that will be Ensemble…and just like last year (The Help) it will be strictly a way of honoring the stellar cast and not a viable Oscar-prediction for BP.
Having said that, I do think the beloved Sally Field will pull off a surprise victory and knock out frontrunner Anne Hathaway. The Screen Actors Guild has a history of honoring somewhat underestimated veteran actresses in supporting actress (Lauren Bacall for The Mirror has two faces, Gloria Stuart for Titanic, Kathy Bates for Primary Colors, Judi Dench for Chocolat, Helen Mirren for Gosford Park, Ruby Dee for American Gangster), and considering how popular Field is among her peers, I think she will surprise.
Same goes for Naomi Watts, she has such strong and high-profile peer-support (Robert Downey Jr, Mark Ruffalo, Reese Witherspoon, Edward Norton, Angelina Jolie) that even if she won’t win the Oscar, she does have an excellent shot at the SAG in my opinion…
…and if that happens, they still ‘have to’ give something to Silver Linings Playbook, and I think they will LOVE the idea of giving living legend Robert De Niro his very first SAG award for his very first individual nomination.
I differ for PGA
It seems like its down to these three films:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook will probably win SAG unfortunately.
I agree on SAG. I think it will win Actress, Supporting Actor and ensemble. Silver Linings is absolutely up for PGA, though.