Predict the Golden Globe Winners Contest

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ENTER OUR CONTEST

 

We have just two days to put the Golden Globes to bed. I feel like this is still a very very wide open race.  In the awards bubble, they can’t get behind a single Lincoln win, not even at the Critics Choice, while “out there” in the rest of America, Lincoln is tops.  Everybody is talking about it except, of course, those who vote on awards. Funny, ain’t it?  Usually that’s reserved to movies that are deemed too genre-y for Oscar but this year? It’s that talky political smart person’s movie dumb America wasn’t supposed to get.

Meanwhile, the upset over Argo and Zero Dark Thirty could also make this race turn out differently.  If, say, either Ben Affleck or Kathryn Bigelow wins the DGA over Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee, that could signal a potential split vote scenario where Argo or Zero Dark Thirty wins Best Picture and someone else wins Best Director, like Michael Haneke or even Benh Zeitlin, or David O. Russell, for that matter.

Either way, that people were starting to lean Argo’s way (at least among critics and bloggers) we don’t yet know the ultimate outcome.  The Oscars pulled the rug out from underneath the fairly predictable awards race and suddenly made it UNPREDICTABLE and that has made plenty of people angry. I don’t know how anyone can complain with such an interesting lineup for Best Director – yes, I know, we had the race set in stone already. We knew how it was supposed to go and then it went a different way.  It hasn’t gone THIS way in a very very long time.  Are the awards to confirm what we think or are they supposed to tell us what they think? I have never known to the answer to that one. One person’s masterpiece is another’s MEHsterpiece.

I will be putting down my predictions later.  I know, try to contain your excitement! In the meantime, here you go.

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52 Comments

  1. Zach
    January 11, 2013

    You don’t have Christoph Waltz on the list for supporting! Not that I think he’s going to win anyway. I’m putting down TLJ (optimistically, I suppose), but I feel that’s wrong.

  2. Zooey
    January 11, 2013

    @ Sasha,

    how would have you reacted had they snubbed Spielberg (who to me doesn’t deserve to win and Bigelow deserves it)? you would have been just as angry as you still can’t get over the surprising guilds’ love for The King’s Speech.

  3. praetor
    January 11, 2013

    I actually think it went from unpredictable to predictable.

    Was it going to be Lincoln or Zero Dark Thirty. Or was Argo gonna come from behind and snatch it away?

    Now we’re left with “it’s very, very likely gonna be Lincoln”, since I really don’t see Pi or SLP winning.

  4. unlikely hood
    January 11, 2013

    One person’s masterpiece is another’s MEHsterpiece.

    Nice one.

  5. Archie
    January 11, 2013

    If Argo wins Best Picture at the Oscar or Zero Dark Thirty for that matter, will this be the first time since Driving Miss Daisy and Bruce Beresford where the film wins without even nominating the director?

  6. Robert A.
    January 11, 2013

    ^

    Yes.

  7. Archie
    January 11, 2013

    Wow that would be something! And to think there are two possible strong movies which can repeat the same instance: Argo, having won BFCA, and Zero Dark Thirty having been won most of the critics. It’s so stupid how can they bump Affleck and Bigelow in place of Russell and Haneke and Zeitlin – dunno the spelling of his last name. Bummer.

  8. January 11, 2013

    After that terrible noms, I’m so tired and desappointed.
    But I’ll do it at night…

    Am I the only one who still can’t understand?

  9. Archie
    January 11, 2013

    I think Sasha has been right all along. Having been turned in all the ballots before the DGA and PGA announced their nominations may have something to do with the snubs.

  10. FrankieJ
    January 11, 2013

    ‘I don’t know how anyone can complain with such an interesting lineup for Best Director’

    Sasha, I don’t believe you’d be writing that if Spielberg or Lee had been overlooked. I can wholly and completely understand why people are upset over the exclusion of Bigelow, Affleck and even Tarantino.

    For me Bigelow’s exclusion is the worst omission in recent memory. Here’s hoping it leads to a split and Zero Dark gets its due.

  11. mecid
    January 11, 2013

    and congrats Sasha! for being the only expert to have Benh Zeitlin as main potential BD upset.

  12. PiersD.
    January 11, 2013

    Sasha, Alan Arkin is also missing from the Globes supp. Actor drop down list.

  13. January 11, 2013

    I’m far from angry! I’m excited! Yesterday’s shocks invigorated me! I was so ready for the usual predictability and disappointment; now, we’ve got a real race on our hands!

    The angry people are those pushing for Argo or Zero Dark Thirty. I’m pushing for Life of Pi and Amour, so I’m super happy!

  14. Daveylow
    January 11, 2013

    I think Life of Pi could win the BAFTA top prizes and Lincoln could grab the Oscars. I don’t know what the Globes will do. I hope they give us another surprise.

    It’s so strange that Ang Lee has his most successful film financially in his career and the critics/award givers couldn’t care less.

  15. Lynne
    January 11, 2013

    Hopefully, it’s not another SLP landslide like the Critics Choice Awards!

  16. w.j.
    January 11, 2013

    To say that Bigelow’s contributions were any more substantial than Haneke’s, Lee’s, Spielberg’s, Russell’s or Zeitlin’s is just a matter of taste. All of these directors did outstanding work, as did Tarantino, Anderson, Affleck, and many others. Let’s face it: this was a great year and one has to realize that all five of the director nominees could be within a hair of each voter wise, and that may have included those that just missed the cut. Wouldn’t you all just love to see that actual vote tally? There would probably be a lot fewer broken hearts if we could. I am wondering if the academy should do what it does for the best picture and allow more than 5 nominees in other categories?

  17. Sasha Stone
    January 11, 2013

    how would have you reacted had they snubbed Spielberg

    You mean like they did when The Color Purple got ten nominations? I’ve been down this path too many times. The truth is the awards bloggers and critics have gotten too comfortable telling Oscar what to do and Oscar has gotten too comfortable following their lead. This year, the rug was pulled out from everyone and we’re getting what they REALLY think. So there’s that. They obviously liked and respected Lincoln enough to get it in there. But Spielberg WAS snubbed, lest we forget, by the BAFTAS and it felt shitty.

  18. Kane
    January 11, 2013

    Hahaha “MEHsterpiece”…well done Sasha. If I don’t have to pay you royalties I’d like to use that phrase when describing my “meh” movies ;)

  19. joe
    January 11, 2013

    best picture: argo
    best director: ben affleck argo
    best actor motion picture drama: daniel day lewis lincoln
    best actress motion picture drama: jessica chastain: zero dark thirty
    best actor motion musical/comedy: bradley cooper: silver linings playbook
    best actress motion picture musical/comedy: jennifer lawrence: silver linings playbook
    best supporting actor: tommy lee jones: lincoln
    best supporting actress: anne hathaway: les miserables
    best original score: john williams: lincoln
    best original song: skyfall: skyfall
    best animated feature: wreck it ralph
    best screenplay: mark boal: zero dark thirty
    best foreign language film: amour(austria)

  20. Zach
    January 11, 2013

    The Color Purple got 11 nominations. :(

  21. Roberto
    January 11, 2013

    To be honest, I did not like the fact of a rookie winning best director over veteran directors and/or directors with prestige as it happened last two years. Hooper over Fincher/Coens/Aronofsky? Hazanavicius over Scorsese/Allen/Payne/Mallick. At least this year that might not happen. Spielberg and Lee are household names that have change cinema and have changed the world.

  22. FrankieJ
    January 11, 2013

    Thanks for that, Sasha…because I am feeling really shitty. And I felt shitty about Spielberg not getting a BAFTA nom as well but it’s not as “prestigious” as the Oscar (at least in the US of A) And you are right about TCP omission. That was pretty petty.

    I am trying to balance the excitement of AMPAS having to vote without any guidance with Bigelow not getting nominated. Last year I was smarting from Fassbender’s omission (and Swinton’s) but, for some reason, I was more okay with that–probably because it didn’t truly surprise me.

    Hoping LINCOLN and ZERO DARK win everything they can…the rest will just be fun (including a win for Riva or Wallis!!!)

  23. Andor
    January 11, 2013

    Robert De Niro is an option for best supporting actor in the contest, but he is not nominated. Christoph Waltz is missing from that list. I’m thinking about taking a risk and choose De Niro, maybe he could win without a nomination. :)

  24. Kane
    January 11, 2013

    Roberto, it’s not about rewarding who is due but rather who is best. I didn’t think Hooper was the best a few years ago but he’s certainly been directing (albeit more TV) since the mid 90s. Same goes for Hazanavicius. And Affleck has already made two other great movies before Argo and won an Oscar for co-writing Good Will Hunting. I believe Affleck deserved it for one of the most important movies of the year.

  25. Rod
    January 11, 2013

    That was really, really hard.

  26. PJ
    January 11, 2013

    I went with Lincoln, DDL, Watts, DiCaprio, Hathaway, SLP, Cooper, Lawrence. I have Affleck for win as director but Lee has strong shot here.

  27. Krovvy
    January 11, 2013

    Ya know, before I really got into this award obsession, I used to think the Golden Globes and Oscars generally agreed. However, in recently memory, it seems they rarely do. I kind of have my doubts on Lincoln. I feel like Argo or ZDT could easily take the cake. In fact, despite all of the critics awards, I have a strong gut feeling leaning toward Argo. As for musical category, I think, simply based on the voters, that Les Miserables has a bigger shot at winning, though I think Silver Linings is the better movie.

  28. Gentle Benj
    January 11, 2013

    I expect the Globes to mostly line up with the BFCA, including ARGO. But I’m starting to feel like this is one of those years where the guilds make us do an about-face. Towards what, though? ZERO DARK THIRTY and LES MIS don’t seem to have the heat that they might have had, and if this were going to be an all-LINCOLN-all-the-time proposition we would have seen it by now. No, I’m starting to envision a guild sweep and resultant Oscar win for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.

    I know, I know, but… that Jacki Weaver nomination… the BFCA Ensemble win… the fact that David O. Russell made the Directing lineup over Bigelow and Affleck… the fact that the BFCA and the Globes both have Comedy categories to insulate the other contenders from it… and perhaps most importantly, the timing of its expansion… I think I hear a train coming, just now picking up steam…

  29. Chris
    January 11, 2013

    If we’re going to criticize Empire’s Infographic, let’s get it right here too.

    There are a few errors in the drop-down lists on this ballot.

    In TV, you list Supporting Actor and Actress in a movie or mini-series – but, due to space constrictions, left out that most of the nominees are from series.

    De Niro is listed instead of Christoph Waltz in supporting actor and Arkin is credited as being in Silver Linings.

    Animated lists Frankweenie as a nominee – I know we can all figure out what that means but it’s not the official title.

  30. Roberto
    January 11, 2013

    Argo is a very fine film, one of the year’s best, and also pure entertainment but, let’s face it, it has been helped by a strong campaign. I did not like the end that much since it reminds those Chuck Norris films. The lack of campaign for “Pi” explains why a few weeks ago very few believe that Ang Lee was a lock as best director and even there was the thought that it was going to be excluded from the best picture nominees. Here at awardsdaily, we left it out of the best picture list while simulating the voting.

  31. Eric
    January 11, 2013

    I still think that winning the Globe is a kiss of death for a Best Picture contender. Having said that, I get the feeling Bigelow might win the if only as a consolation prize for losing it when Hurt Locker was around. (It sounds petty, but that’s how I view the HFPA this time around.) Argo might take the picture prize, which might make the Academy have a reaction vote against it.

    It’s kind of a fucked up awards year, no?

  32. Roberto
    January 11, 2013

    2010: The King’s Speech (picture, director, actor, original screenplay), Inception (cinematography, sounds, visual effects)

    2011: The Artist (picture, director, actor, score, costumes), Hugo (art direction, cinematography, sounds, visual effects)

    Following this trend:

    2012: Lincon (picture, director, actor, adapted screenplay, score or supporting actor), Life of Pi (art direction, cinematography, sounds, visual effects)

    Differences:

    2010: The King’s Speech caliber <<<<<<<<<< The Social Network (and many others) caliber
    2011: The Artist caliber <>>>>>>> Les Misérables caliber

  33. Roberto
    January 11, 2013

    Oops, I am sorry:

    2010: The King’s Speech <<<<<<< The Social Network
    2011: The Artist <>>>>>>> Les Misérables

  34. Krovvy
    January 11, 2013

    Roberto has a valid point, but with all of the common trends being broken in the nominations alone (nobody could have guessed the Directors field), I think anything is possible. I’m predicted a Lincoln sweep, but I’m hoping I get surprised. I want something different this year. I think the previous comment about Silver Linings Playbook could be right. In all honesty, I feel like it’s probably Lincoln’s biggest contender, especially considering the omission of Affleck and Bigelow. I personally preferred Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and Silver Linings over Lincoln, so part of it that I’m rooting for them, but in general, I also just want something shocking to happen. And at this point, anything besides Lincoln winning is a bit shocking.

  35. g
    January 11, 2013

    I was so happy Argo won bd and bp at the bfca! What a great birthday present, I’m sure Lincoln or life of pi will win the Oscar but I’m just happy Argo won something, the only film I don’t want to win the Oscar is SLP, it’s ok but it’s not a bp.

  36. Jerry Grant
    January 11, 2013

    I am predicting Zero Dark Thirty and Bigelow for the wins. Because why the hell not.

  37. Linc4Jess
    January 11, 2013

    The only unpredictable scenario I see is if the Academy decides, after all the criticism, to make it up to those that were omitted for Director, namely Bigelow and Affleck. Will they name “ZDT” or “Argo” best film in order to make up for it. Otherwise everything from what I see and read is just where it was six days ago.

  38. NIc V
    January 11, 2013

    Lincoln is different this year. We haven’t seen a film in this genre that has captured the minds of audiences across the country. We haven’t seen a film like this in a long time where you really should be able to acknowledge that it’s a damn good film. And yes if I hear one more time that “I don’t get what the point was of Mary Todd Lincoln…”. If you’re friggin married, if you got a friggin life partner, if you got friggin girlfriend or boyfriend or even a friggin dog then you should get it. If you don’t then you must not have any close personal relationships that nudge you, that kinda put an ice pick in your back and turn it a little just too see you squirm while they impart upon you their opinion or how they would prefer you behave or act. Everyone said no one would go to see Lincoln well plenty of people did. Preachy. Yeah it’s preachy. Preachy in the way that politicians dealt with the world back then. There wasn’t any television to numb your mind so you sat there with your mouth shut. People talked to one another they communicated. They didn’t friggin push some buttons on a friggin phone and send out a six word uncohesive bunch of crap identifying it as a sentence. Politicans were orators in those days. People talked. Talking is just about ready to become the Model T. Antiquated. God forbid we have a film where Actors and Actresses say something intelligent rather than take their clothes off and just fuck for ten minutes and call that a sub plot.

  39. NIc V
    January 11, 2013

    Yeah this year the awards season has me really kinda pissed.

  40. Jules
    January 11, 2013

    @ NIc V

    I’m with you.

  41. Yvette
    January 11, 2013

    NIv V,
    That was seriously beautiful…
    Lincoln is that film that transcends genre, Oscar politics, Spielberg haters etc…
    If people don’t get it, I don’t get that. I’m also tired of some classifying Lincoln as the predictable Oscar movie, or that it’s somehow a ‘safe’ film…
    Lincoln is so far from predictable Hollywood, so far outside the mainstream of what the masses flock to on a regular basis – it is the rogue film in every way. And here’s the thing: the masses f***love it! I don’t need to hear someone say that it’s not connecting with audiences, that ‘people admire it, but don’t love it’ crap. No, I’ve seen it four times in four very different parts of the city, different audiences, socio-economic status, and in every case….they laugh at the right parts, they’re quiet in all the right parts, they react in all the same ways….and they’re riveted by the larger picture of this film is about…
    They get it. Even if the jaded few do not.

  42. The Great Dane
    January 12, 2013

    Does anyone know where the Globes will be streamed live on the web this year? :)

  43. Alexander
    January 12, 2013

    Nic V. and Yvette FTW!

    Truly great thoughts, and I am reduced to simply concurring with both of your beautifully eloquent posts.

    You both made me want to see Lincoln for a fourth time as soon as possible. I, too, have seen it play in very different parts of my area, to full, packed houses in a way no film has in years and years.

  44. The Japanese Viewer
    January 12, 2013

    (Just done voting.)

    Thank you for leaving all TV categories at our own option as a voting body, Sasha. I am non-US-based; so, it really helped cope with hassles.

  45. The Japanese Viewer
    January 12, 2013

    “(Just done voting.)”

    Correction: Not voting; rather, predicting.

  46. Freddy Ardanza
    January 12, 2013

    For me Lincoln is a MESSterpiece

  47. Astarisborn
    January 12, 2013

    Picture- Lincoln
    Director- Life of Pi

  48. Sonja
    January 12, 2013

    Hmmm… Let’s see…

    Picture-Drama: ZD30 (though Argo and Lincoln are possible, too)
    Picture-Comedy/Musical: either SLP or Les Miz
    Director: Bigelow? (she didn’t win there in 2009-but Spielberg, Afflek AND Lee could win)
    Actress-Drama: Chastain (alt. Watts-but I don’t think she’ll win this year, but watch out for the next)
    Actor-Drama: DDL (alt. Phoenix… maybe)
    Actress-Comedy/Musical: Lawrence (no real alt.-she has this in the bag)
    Supporting Actress: Hathaway (alt. Field)
    Supporting Actor: PSH (alt. TLJ)
    Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. ZD30)
    Animated: Wreck-it Ralph (alt. Frankenweenie)
    Foreign Language: Amour

    Hmmm… That’s what I think at the moment.

  49. KT
    January 12, 2013

    Well isn’t it touted as the year of the woman at the Golden Globes? Tina Fey and Amy Pohler hosting. The inimitable Jodie Foster winning the Cecil B. DeMille Award. I’d love Kathryn Bigelow to be recognized here as Best Director, even if the film doesn’t take Best Drama. She deserves recognition on a televised award show for probably the best direction of the five nominees. AND they passed over her for Hurt Locker.

  50. Yvette
    January 12, 2013

    The Globes are Harvey’s and Clooney’s baby…..SLP and Argo should do pretty well.
    Hathaway will get this one…the overwrought Les Miz is right the Globes alley..
    Do these still matter?

  51. d2
    January 12, 2013

    NGNG:

    1. Best Actress, Drama – Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    2. Best Original Score – Lincoln
    3. Best Director/Best Movie – Drama – Argo

  52. PaulH
    January 13, 2013

    Best Motion Picture (Drama): Argo
    Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy): Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
    Best Actress (Drama): Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Best Director: Ben Affleck (Argo)
    Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (NGNG)
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
    Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
    Best Original Score: Lincoln
    Best Original Song: ‘Safe and Sound’ (The Hunger Games; NGNG)
    Best Animated Feature Film: Frankenweenie

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