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Producers Guild Confirms What We Knew, At Least So Far and with One Exception

skyfall-james-bond-trailer

It was surprisingly easy to pick nine out of the ten Best Picture nominees for the Producers Guild, which means we will probably have a lot of winners in our contest. What this means is what it seems to mean every year: our method for finding the popular films in a consensus vote is pretty much right on. If you look at Gurus of Gold, for instance, you’ll see these same nine predicted. Only a few of them had Skyfall on their list. That last slot seemed like it could go to either The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises or Skyfall. Three franchise blockbusters that people really really liked. Skyfall, though, seems to have most of the buzz right now in that regard.

But does that mean it’s headed for a Best Picture nod? It’s tough to say. We don’t yet know how many Best Picture nominees there will be, let alone which ones make it in. We do know that if there were five right now they would be: Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook/Les Miserables/Django Unchained fighting it out for that last slot. With more than five allowed, all of them should have no problem making it in. That’s a solid 7. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom also seem like safe bets, that’s nine. If you think the Academy will pick ten, you could go either for Amour or Skyfall.

For Skyfall to get in, it has to hit many voters’ number one — it can’t just be a three or a five, but a one or a two, ideally. I am fairly certain that the Academy are the only group around that counts their ballots this way. How many Academy members can you think of who will put down Skyfall at number one? It probably has a better chance placing there than The Dark Knight Rises or The Avengers but still, Academy members might not be that mainstream.

In conclusion, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Skyfall will get in. If these nominations had come out a week ago, it would probably have a slightly better chance, but early on Kris Tapley‘s prediction feels more and more like a reality: that, at the very least, Skyfall might be looked at like the Bourne Ultimatum and could get in for more nominations than previously thought. Tapley thinks 9: Picture, Supporting actor, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Song and Production Design. I think Supporting Actor, Sound, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Song and POSSIBLY editing if Les Miserables gets bumped.

Right now, I still think Best Picture is down to those that keep getting onto the same lists, as illustrated below.

NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

Argo Argo Argo Argo
Beasts of the Southern Beasts of the Southern Beasts of the Southern Wild Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained Django Unchained Django Unchained Django Unchained
Les Miserables Les Miserables Les Miserables Les Miserables
Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom Moonrise Kingdom Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi
Skyfall
The Master
Promised Land
Looper
Perks of Being/Wall
Dark Knight Rises

2011 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

The Artist The Artist The Artist The Artist The Artist
War Horse War Horse War Horse War Horse War Horse
The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants
Hugo Hugo Hugo Hugo Hugo
Moneyball Moneyball Moneyball Moneyball
The Help The Help The Help The Help
Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris
Tree of Life Tree of Life Tree of Life
Extremely Loud Extremely Loud
Drive Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March The Ides of March
Bridesmaids Bridesmaids
J Edgar J Edgar
Harry Potter

2010 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

The King’s Speech The King’s Speech* The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
Inception Inception Inception Inception Inception
Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3
True Grit True Grit True Grit True Grit True Grit
Kids Are All Right Kids Are All Right Kids Are All Right Kids Are All Right
127 Hours 127 Hours 127 Hours 127 Hours
Winter’s Bone Winter’s Bone
The Town The Town The Town The Town
Hereafter

*AFI special award

2009 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
Up Up Up Up Up
Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds
An Education An Education An Education An Education
Precious Precious Precious Precious
Avatar Avatar Avatar
District 9 District 9
A Serious Man A Serious Man A Serious Man
The Blind Side
Nine
Invictus Invictus Invictus
Star Trek Star Trek
Wild Things Are…
The Messenger The Messenger
A Single Man
Sugar
Coraline
The Hangover

***

118 Comments on this Post

  1. Do you have any information about actual voters either turning in their ballots early or waiting until the last minute? That has to make some difference. When it’s all said and done I want to see how the voting online thing went. Because although they had a call center it seemed about as helpful as all call centers, if you take into account what Spurlock said.

  2. Knowing how the Academy works, Skyfall will not be nominated for Picture or Bardem (but a slew of techs), Nicole Kidman will not be nominated for The Paperboy, Helen Mirren will not be nominated for Hitchcock, Maggie Smith will not be nominated for Marigold Hotel, and Q. Wallis will not be nominated for Beasts. The bug-eye cinematography of Les Mis will be snubbed, Katy Perry’s worthy “Wide Awake” will be snubbed, Prometheus and Avengers will each get at least one tech nomination, fans of Argo will help it get nominations for Arkin and its score, and at least one Django actor will be nominated.

  3. @Antoinette,

    I know this isn’t possible, but it would be fascinating to see how the online voting compares to the mail-in ballots. Young vs. old taste? Supporting off-the-wall underdog picks vs. established frontrunners?

  4. Zach, why do you think so? You make a lot of statements, and I’m curious with regard to your reasons behind them.

  5. unfortunately (for me) they’re def not that mainstream
    Realistically I see 2 sound cats, song & cinematography

  6. @Zach Yeah. It’s not possible to get the actual numbers but I feel like if the voting process was the mess that some stories have made out, we’ll hear about it. I would have gotten a mail-in ballot though if it were me. I don’t trust computers even though I grew up with them.

  7. Sasha said in twitter that Les Mis just topped the rotten reviews from Chicago, Moulin Rouge and Crash and not ELIC. As much as I’m also a huge Fincher fan like Sasha, let’s not forget it still has not topped a film that I truly enjoy but it’s far away from Fincher’s best: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with its 64 rottens. I’m curious why nobody remembers this film in the comparisons with Les Mis. I know it’s well liked film here but the comparison it’s inevitable and the critics reception is definitely the most similar to Les Mis. And just to add another one: Babel has 60.

  8. David Lindsey

    I think SKYFALL made it in for one reason and one reason alone: it was the well-reviewed blockbluster that was freshest in the minds of the voters. That’s why, if one of the big 3 make it in for Oscar, odds are good that it will be SKYFALL. Besides, it has the most Oscar pedigree: an Oscar-winning director at the helm and two Oscar winning actors who are possible nominees for their performances this year, not to mention the odds-on favorite to win Best Song. I’d say SKYFALL is looking pretty good right now.

  9. I’d put SLP and Les Mis as more likely nominees than Life of Pi at the moment.

  10. Zach,
    You are forgetting about the British members of the academy. For some crazy reasons the Brits think James Bond is some national treasure (see Olympics opening). I can see them rallying around it instead of Anna Karenina or Best Exotic Marigold hotel which is all sorts of depressing. I like James Bond films but they are nothing but interchangeable fluff with no deeper meaning or value including Skyfall.

  11. They really should have some supplemental system that gives points based on placement. If you like something well enough to put it in top ten, then 10th place should get some form of reward particularly when you consider that someone else might have it at 6th or 7th. This shuffling of things that are basically in the top five don’t encourage film makers best instincts towards quality and originality.

  12. As much as I love Life of Pi and cheerlead it’s chances I don’t think it would make it if the BP race was limited to just 5. The top 5 frontrunners favored remain: Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook and Les Miserables.

    >It’s only in the Director category that I think Life of Pi has an advantage over Les Miz and SLP. I think the frontrunners for BD are: Speilberg, Affleck, Bigelow, and Ang Lee.

  13. I was thrilled to see “Skyfall” listed on the Producers Guild roster of Best Pictures.

    It’s one of my favorite pictures of the year, and deserves the recognition.

    The movie takes James Bond to another level entirely.

  14. Danemychal

    Evan is absolutely right, Sasha. Not sure where you are finding Life of Pi as a top 4 contender with Les Mis and SLP on the outside looking in. You remember what Harvey did with The Reader. This year he actually has a movie that stands out since its the only comedy in the mix and actors are loving it. If the noms were 5:

    Lincoln
    Argo
    Les Mis
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Everyone else is on the outside looking in and none of the other films have a real shot to win BP.

  15. It frustrates me every time people underestimate Life of Pi. I have more confidence in it than the majority of other films in the race. Just because it’s not hitting big at the moment does not mean that it won’t prove popular with voters. I have no doubt it’ll do very well.

  16. If there were only five nods then I am 100% sure Harvey would putt all of his time behide Django more than SLP seeing as how it has the 3 things it needs. Buzz, Great Critcs reviews and huge boxoffice.

  17. I still don’t think MOONRISE KINGDOM will get in. Actors rep the majority of AMPAS voters. Producers are NOT actors and actors in SAG, which is a huge voting body yes, but still representative of what actors like, nominated MARIGOLD for Ensemble. I think MARIGOLD will take the MOONRISE slot leaving the final (if there are 10) going to either SKYFALL, DKR or THE IMPOSSIBLE (which I think will get in). Check out my predictions column over at newyorkcool.com:

    http://www.newyorkcool.com/archives/2012/November-December/film-Frank_J_Avella.htm

  18. desmond

    I have more confidence in ‘LIFE OF PI’ than the majority of other films in the race , AGREE!

    President Obama’s Three Favorite Movies from 2012 : ‘Beast of the Southern Wild’, Life of Pi, Argo , NO LINCOLN !!!

    http://www.worstpreviews.com/headline.php?id=27070#ixzz2Gry7AaRT

    I know so many people love this film so much , and moved by it so much. Don’t forget the huge number that it makes in box office right now, except skyfall 1 billion worldwide box office figure , ‘life of pi ‘ is the highest among the PGA TOP 10 ($300 million worldwide)

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=lifeofpi.htm

  19. I also don’t buy that Life of Pi is a lock. I think it’s likely, but I have this nagging suspicion that we’ll see either it or Moonrise Kingdom miss out. Either one seems like it could be The Town of 2012, picking up most of these lists but not nailing the landing. And I’m not prepared to count The Master out. I could see it pulling a Tree of Life and riding a wave of love to a spot in the games. I don’t expect it. But I think there’s a solid chance.

    I’m betting on 8 nominees this year. The seven that hit every list and Life of Pi. But if Moonrise or The Master sneaks in, I won’t be surprised. Anything else would be a bit of a shock at this stage.

  20. I think Life of Pi seems quiet because it IS – relative to everything else.

    Reviews – great, but not Zero, Argo, or Lincoln-like.
    Boxoffice – stellar, but not Lincoln, Skyfall, TDKR, Les Mis, Argo, Django-like.
    Critics awards – relegated to cinematography, visual effects.
    SAG – it lacks the actors.

    I think passion will put it into Best Picture, but it’s quiet for the above reasons. None of those make it a lesser picture.

  21. Honestly, I am thinking we should not count out The Impossible. Don’t underestimate the weepy spot – it got Blind Side in, it got BOTH War Horse & Extremely Loud… in. With Naomi Watts’ campaign gaining ever more traction, more people will be seeing it, more people will be crying…

    I’m counting out The Master at this point, although… let’s remember that The Tree of Life made it in on pure artistic balls. Could happen again, although The Master is more cerebral and less sweeping.

    Moonrise Kingdom fits the sunny, quirky indie semi-comedy slot once reserved for the like of Little Miss Sunshine, Juno & even The Kids are Alright well enough. I think it’s in. Beasts is a whole other… beast (sorry) with artsy street cred, and gets in on different merits.

    If Marigold Hotel is a nominee I will roll my eyes for a full day and bury my head in my hands all night.

  22. I think Ryan agrees with me, that “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” will sneak in with a surprise Best Picture nomination.

    It’s about old people. And the AVERAGE age of AMPAS members is retirement age.

    Doesn’t hurt that it was a big hit, either (“The Full Monty” factor).

    Massive popularity and entertainment value filled with good performances bh respected veteran actors dealing with harmless subject matters = a surprising number of votes for Best Picture.

    I predict it will get a Best Picture nomination from AMPAS.

  23. On a no guts no glory note, Let’s not forget The Hobbit. Yes, it’s LOTR lite at best, but it’s entertainment on a huge scale.

    (File this under Anything But Marigold Hotel).

  24. Agreed with everything that Friedl just said, except that I’m not yet counting The Master out. I think it has a chance.

    Watching The Impossible, I felt that it was the sort of film to which some (likely many Academy members) might respond very strongly, and that it has an outside chance at scraping together enough support from voters to secure several nominations – Actress, Picture, Editing, Supporting Actor, Sound Mixing and Editing, Cinematography, Score…

  25. Aaand except The Hobbit. It’s going nowhere in the race. Dead and buried for Best Picture.

  26. Yup, that’s why I don’t give a hoot about Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes, Sasha’s charts are the best basis for Oscar predix and the buzz here at AD is the best barometer for Oscar glory!

  27. AaronSGreen

    Skyfall will be BP nominated for many reasons. #1 great reviews, #2 MASSIVE box office, about to $300m domestically and over 100billion worldwide. #1 film in Britain which will have a huge British voting block support. #3-tech categories will be the ones to list it #1 #2 on ballots.

  28. The firing of Bumble Ward who, if she stayed, would be repping “Life of Pi” to the max is a significant moment in this year’s race. Sasha in her podcast noted this, and said she actually ASKED those peeps just why they were not pushing “Pi” and they said, she said, “Because there’s no actors in it.”!!!

    No Bumble Ward + no actors = Ang Lee being left out of BD, though it very well may get a Best Picture nod, and so technicals.

    So Best Director will be Spielberg, Hooper, O.Russell(Harvey’s pushing THIS one)Ben Affleck and one other. Wondering if all this negative press for Bigelow AND ZDT will result in her not being nominated for Best Director. I’ve never seen such serious vitriol hurled at a director and a movie before!

  29. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    I doubt Hooper will be nominated. Almost everyone who dislikes Les Mis blames Hooper for his ruinous directorial quirks.

  30. “Aaand except The Hobbit. It’s going nowhere in the race. Dead and buried for Best Picture”

    I agree, but…if LOTR never happened it would be close to the frontrunner.

  31. Curious in confidence of Life of Pi when charts show pics that missed NBR were a serious blow to winning Oscar.

  32. I doubt Hooper will be nominated. Almost everyone who dislikes Les Mis blames Hooper for his ruinous directorial quirks.

    But you don’t vote against, you vote for. I think he’s more likely to get in with DGA than AMPAS, with the DGA’s TV contingent. But then I’ve put Hooper on my official Oscar predictions today too…

    In other news, the Denver Film critics Society has announced its nominations:

    http://screenonscreen.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/denver-film-critics-society-nominations.html

  33. Curious in confidence of Life of Pi when charts show pics that missed NBR were a serious blow to winning Oscar.

    I don’t think anyone’s expecting Life of Pi to win. Just to get nominated.

  34. The Dude

    Skyfall has the Brits, so it’s not entirely out of the race, although I don’t think it will make the list. Neither will Beasts of the Southern Wild, for that matter.

  35. Bryce Forestieri

    There is a small high-mided segment that went for Malick, Almodovar, Meirelles, Leigh, and Lynch

    They will come through for either The Master OR Amour.

    Here’s hoping it’s AMOUR!

  36. I don’t believe PGA and Academy will walk in the same direction, this year.
    Yes, I’m still angry for The Master exclusion.
    But thinking beyond…
    O don’ think Academy will nominate yhat booooring hoax Beasts of the SW and cute but very small Moonrising Kingdom.
    Skyfall, sure, is the worst joke they gave to us.
    And I really believe The Master will be noninated. I won’t lose my faith…

  37. Jerry Grant

    Is Moonrise really as likely to get a BP nom as Beasts? I’m skeptical. But otherwise, I think the top 7 are hard to disagree with. (Though I agree with those who have said Les Miz and SLP are slightly ahead of Life of Pi.)

  38. Linc4jess

    Yikes. “Django Unchained” jumped to number one at the box office yesterday. 82m and counting. “Les Miserables” fading…

  39. At the moment I expect Life of Pi to win BP, and I don’t think I’m alone. It’s the only best picture contender that is at the same time uplifting, entertaining, spectacular, moving, intellectually rich, technically great and advancing 3D technology to a new level, from a beloved director who – some feel – has been robbed a deserved BP win with a Masterpiece in 2005.

  40. Jack Traven II

    I think Skyfall could be this year’s Harry Potter 7.2. The latter was part of a beloved series, got great reviews and was a huge BO success as well – and it was British as well. But it only received some tech nods.

  41. Keizer, BEMH wasn’t a megahit by any measure; it earned less than $50m in its domestic run. And TDKR has far more Oscar pedigree than Skyfall.

  42. Jerry Grant

    Sasha, you hint at the end of this article that you think “Moonrise” and “Beasts” are “safe bets” that will rise the BP nom count to 9. I am curious about the mathematics of the BP nomination process. Is there a reason to guess that the BP nominee number would be on the higher end (9-10) rather than on the lower end (6-8)? It seems to me that the 7 pictures you mentioned are certainly safe for BP nominations (and I would include “Beasts” for a safe #8). But is there a mathematical reason why it is safe to bet there will be a #9 and #10? Or is it simply that the *particular* movies that would occupy those positions are simply high enough quality that you think they will receive the significant number of votes?

  43. @Linc4jess…I saw that to. If and when Les Mis doesn’t make more than Django in the U.S…wow. NO ONE can say they predicted that.

    Hooper won’t make the top five for Oscar. And I agree with Sasha that IF there were five best pic noms only, they would be Lincoln, Argo, ZDT but I think Life of Pi and Django have a better chance than SLP and Les Mis.

    I don’t think Moonrise gets a best pic nom. I think we are firmly at seven with Lincoln, ZDT, Argo, Life of Pi, Django, Les Mis, SLP.

  44. rufussondheim

    Tom Hooper does deserve some directing credit for Hathaway’s Oscar. By deciding to showcase that one take, unedited, and beautifully shot, she will win that Oscar. Hooper also deserves credit for making several key changes to the script.

    But with that said is it enough to get a BD nod? Probably not. I put him third on my personal list, but if I were in the Academy, I would probably have put Lee and Affleck above him since they had a greater impact on their films’ success than Hooper. And, still, I don’t know if Hooper deserves credit for the script changes or not. And that would go in the Screenplay portion anyway.

    In other words, I would like to see Hooper get the nomination, but I wouldn’t be troubled if he didn’t. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of the Academy thought that way too.

  45. I too am counting on that segment, Bryce. I’ve been keeping Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Haneke both in mind for the fifth Director slot all along as a result. I sure hope they come through this year.

    If David O. Russell gets nominated over either PTA or Haneke, I’ll be pissed.

  46. Robert A.

    “So Best Director will be Spielberg, Hooper, O.Russell(Harvey’s pushing THIS one)Ben Affleck and one other. Wondering if all this negative press for Bigelow AND ZDT will result in her not being nominated for Best Director. I’ve never seen such serious vitriol hurled at a director and a movie before!”

    Bigelow will be nominated despite the controversy. She’s the critical favorite for BD and I think she’ll get more than enough of those #1 votes from directors who won’t let the vitriol vote for them. Either Hooper or Russell might get nominated, but I kind of doubt they’ll both make the cut.

    “There is a small high-mided segment that went for Malick, Almodovar, Meirelles, Leigh, and Lynch

    They will come through for either The Master OR Amour.”

    I know what you’re saying, but there’s not a “high-minded” director nominated every year. I’m trying to figure out if this is a year to predict a “high-minded” pick like Malick was last year, or if this is a year where the director slate is going to look pretty predictable and standard. (Affleck, Bigelow, Spielberg, Lee, and either Russell or Hooper.) I’m not going to predict Tarantino for a director slot, for whatever reasons. Well, not unless DGA insists that I must.

  47. rufussondheim

    One thing that helps Django on yesterday’s BO is that college kids are home and looking for things to do. I think Les Miz will have more legs when we’re looking 3 or 4 weeks from now when the Awards season is in full swing. I think a lot of people will be checking out Les Miz a second time, the music has a way of infecting you and if the marketers of Les Miz are smart they will have a slew of varied ads highlighting different songs trying to pull people back in.

    Either way, the final tallies will be close and neck and neck with Lincoln (all in that 160 to 180 range most likely)

  48. rufussondheim

    I’m not sure there is enough support for a “high-minded” director this year. Since there are two top options for that slot, the classic cliche of “splitting the vote” will actually apply. Throw in the Holy Motors guy and that subtracts even more votes.

    And with such directors as Tarantino and Lee also vying for those last spots, there just might not be room for a “high-minded” director this year.

  49. If it were a choice between Haneke and PTA, I am leading toward Haneke. He’s the white elephant in the room, has made the best film of the year and put in a decent performance as Saruman in The Hobbit.

    The Master is dead. Tom Cruise called it months ago. I hope he approves of Amour.

  50. rufussondheim

    I would like to think that Haneke might get a nomination simply because if he’s ever going to get one, it’s going to be this year. He’s a world-class director, and just maybe, objectively speaking, the best working director right now.

  51. “One thing that helps Django on yesterday’s BO is that college kids are home and looking for things to do…”

    That, or Spike Lee finally went to see it.

  52. OT: And controversy goes on…

    “0D30 CIA contacts to be examined by Senate Panel”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/02/zero-dark-thirty-cia_n_2398927.html?utm_hp_ref=entertainment&ir=Entertainment

  53. I guess I disagree. Les Mis was always gonna have a great opening with it’s fan base. I think it’s wishful thinking that THAT many will be seeing it over and over…at least much to make a huge difference. Face it, if it was a smash, it would be doing better. I don’t care if college students need something to do (that is a big stretch if you ask me), the fact Django is even close is nothing short of shocking given the buzz originally there for Les Mis. It will likely end up with more than Django, but I don’t think it hits $150 mil.

  54. rufussondheim

    Les Miz audiences are probably older than Django, and older audiences don’t rush to the theater like younger audiences. Like I said, we’ll see. But in the end, it’s a stupid arguement. We should be happy that at least 4, but maybe up to 7 Oscar BP films might hit that 100 million mark. Maybe the studios will get smart and greenlight more adult fare in the future.

  55. Django is doing better than Les Miz because the latter isn’t that good and the former is, despite the violent subject matter, an entertaining romp. Besides, it’s not like musicals are loved by everyone, especially one so in-your-face and ugly as Les Miserable.

  56. Hooper will get DGA and Oscar nom in my opinion. He was beloved enough to win two years ago and now has made a film which is divisive yes but also full of risky choices that help the actors to deliver great performances. There is always the speculation that actors are the big and strong branch, well, I think that Le Mis is a movie that actors can really Love. Live singing and close ups… Miss Hathaway is already making space for the Oscar at home but I would not be shocked if Jackman was going home with the Oscar too, in an upset win.

  57. Saw that senate panel Zero Dark Thirty thing earlier. A bit ridiculous. First, they deny that torture was used, now they’re investigating to see if there’s any truth to it, and what that could mean.

    Ridic.

  58. Django is Now number 1 at the bixoffice and very well could stay that one this weekend. Django should overtake Les total by Saturday. The reason why film is doing great is because it got outstanding word of mouth. Nobody predicted the movie to make more then les Mis and let’s face with the great reviews and buzz Tarantino is more likely to get a nod then Tom.

  59. I agree with your thoughts Akumax. It’s not my favourite film of the year, but is somewhere amongst my top 15 I guess.
    And it’s only there because of the choices Hooper made. I think his is brave, but I’m glad he did. I don’t think he would have gotten the performances out any other way.

  60. I think Hooper winning had more to do with Weinstein then Hooper himself.

  61. Robert A.

    Just received this email from a friend living in Arizona:

    “Everyone is talking about Les Mis. Is it really supposed to be so good? Would you go see it?”

    At least Les Mis has good buzz in Arizona!

  62. danemychal

    rufus – People DO want to hear the songs again, that is why they are buying the soundtrack in droves. I did and am getting a better experience with it than I did at the theater. That just tells me that Hooper clumsily directed Les Mis. In short, I doubt there were will be much repeat business at the B.O. for Les Mis because the soundtrack distills nearly everything good about the movie (and it’s B.O. seems really front-loaded as I predicted the day after Christmas).

    And because the soundtrack satisfies me as much without any of the visuals, that signals to me that Les Mis does not deserve an award for “Best Motion Picture”. Still, it’s in my top 10 this year and even in my top 5 at the moment… with several highly-touted movies I still need to see (Amour, ZDT, The Master).

  63. @Robert A.

    “At least Les Mis has good buzz in Arizona!”

    It’s probably Senator John McCain pushing Les Mis over Zero Dark Thirty…

  64. For every text in Arizona about Les Mis being so good, there is a text somewhere else saying the exact opposite. I tried telling my friends that it’s not as good as they hope it will be. They went, texted ‘you were right, not good’.

    Neither text is shocking since this is and always has been a divisive movie.

  65. Robert A.

    “At least Les Mis has good buzz in Arizona!”

    It’s probably Senator John McCain pushing Les Mis over Zero Dark Thirty…”

    Ha! Good one, Akumax!

    “For every text in Arizona about Les Mis being so good, there is a text somewhere else saying the exact opposite. I tried telling my friends that it’s not as good as they hope it will be. They went, texted ‘you were right, not good’.”

    You’re right, but then can’t the same thing be said about every movie, not just Les Mis? Every movie in the running for BP this year is going to have some people who are gaga for it, and others who don’t know what all the fuss is about. Although maybe that divide is more extreme for Les Mis.

  66. Well, stop texting people that it’s crap. Let the Arizonians figure it out for themselves.
    Text something like ” Are you ready for your close up?”

  67. “Every movie in the running for BP this year is going to have some people who are gaga for it, and others who don’t know what all the fuss is about”

    And some people will say fuck it, and vote for Argo.

  68. I feel like Les Mis reactions are all over the place. People I expected would lovvvvve it, only liked it. People I never would have thought would even go see it, loved it (like my 25 yr. old male cop friend who said it was “over the top amazing”). And then there are many people I know who say, “I would never see anything like that. Looks boring.”

    So reactions are everywhere.

  69. steve50

    “TDKR has far more Oscar pedigree than Skyfall.”
    PaulH – while I will agree that TDKR is more oscarworthy, Bond celebrated 50 very successful years onscreen this year. If that’s not “pedigree” to this business, I don’t know what is.

    rufus – I agree – if there is room for a “high-minded” director (or I should say, if they MAKE room for one) it will be Haneke, for sure. It surely wouldn’t be Carax because Holy Motors would have shorted-out a few pacemakers.

    When the hell did Arizona become a player? Must be just this year because Demian Beshir got a nomination last year(?), and that wouldn’t have happened on Arizona’s watch, dagnabbit!

    Mattoc – I think you’re on to something: “And some people will say fuck it, and vote for Argo.”

  70. I can still see The Master scraping in with enough #1 votes, over films like Moonrise Kingdom and especially Marigold. There will be 9 films this year.

  71. I’m officially an old person. Over sixty and I have too tell you that if were a member of the Academy The Best Exotic Hotel would not get my vote for Best Picture. It’s a mediocre film with interesting performances. As much as I have liked many of the cast in other work I don’t think anyone of them turned in a performance that was cohesive and I certainly wouldn’t vote for any of them in any category. I enjoyed the film but it’s certainly not a BP contender in my opinion. I liked Looper better and Pitch Perfect. Just because someone is over sixty doesn’t mean they are brain dead. Yeah I’m not going to run out to see Spider Man but I sure and hell will buy Pitch Perfect so that I can watch it again and again. I didn’t think Hope Springs was all that great a film. It’s good but it’s nothing really too write home about. I haven’t seen Skyfall but I loved Daniel Craig in the first James Bond. But then I like Daniel Craig as an actor and I think of all the Bond’s after Connery he really fits the bill.

    I think there will be seven or eight BP nominee’s and I still believe that Life of Pi will make the cut. I don’t see how Les Mis should make it but just because it shouldn’t doesn’t mean it won’t.

  72. PaulH: BEMH was a huge hit with older audiences (which largely made up its demographic). Given the fact that AMPAS members are generally old (60s, 70s, 80s), I think there’s a good chance, indeed, that it will be nominated.

  73. I think Best Exotic will get a BAFTA nomination but not an Oscar nom for Best Picture.

  74. Bryce Forestieri

    Is LES MIZ the least intellectual movie of the year? After all there was nothing from Michael Bay or Jean-Luc Godard…

  75. steve50

    What NikV said. We may be old, but we’re not senile. I think they might recognize a performance – maybe – but not the film. It’s just not “up there” with the rest of the pack.

  76. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    dammit, you guys, now I need to watch Pitch Perfect before I can type my Top 50 list in ink? I thought I had everything covered.

  77. steve50

    Rumor has it that if Tom Hooper wins Best Director, when he’s accepting the statue, he’ll peel of the latex face, reveal that he really is Michael Bay, and scream, “make fun of my movies, will you? Gotcha, fuckers!”

  78. Les Mis is doing great for a 3 hour musical, and it has plenty of buzz despite all your in-denial wishful thinking. I saw it with a whole bunch of people who loved it and said they had such a great movie-going experience. The people who were ‘meh’ on it were guys who weren’t sold on musicals in the first place. In the cinema I was in, the audience erupted in applause at the end and was buzzing and crying as they were leaving.

    I like the choices Hooper made. I wanted something different from the stage musical. People would have complained NO MATTER WHAT – no doubt about it – so I’m glad he did what he did here, but that’s my personal preference.

  79. Unlikely hood

    No matter what, it’s an embarrassment of riches. We won’t see a year like this one again for quite a while.

    I’m already sentimental because we’re a week away – after the nominations it’s kinda half over.

    I coulda danced all night…

  80. The Georgian Film Critics Association annouce on the 12th, which should keep most of us from slitting our wrists.
    He makes a shit cup of coffee…but he knows the score.

  81. The Great Dane

    Pitch Perfect is an old rehash of every Mean Girls/Bring It On/Easy A/etc. ever made. But it’s still worth a watch because of the performances. Rebel Wilson is too funny.

  82. @archer

    No one is saying there aren’t a LOT of people that have experiences like what you said. But as I said last week, I went with a group of twenty. Seven detested it, eight thought it was ok but not great. Five loved it. The buzz is only from the people that love it, which is a fair amount of people, but lots of people hate it too. Critical buzz is pretty blah, you can’t deny that.

  83. I have Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Mis, Django, Silver Linings Playbook down as locks. Life of Pi is looking very likely. Moonrise Kingdom has been seriously championed and I can see it gaining a surprisingly high amount of first place votes in the ballots to sneak in. That leaves 2 possible remaining spots.

    Beasts is losing momentum but will probably take one, and I’d say The Master for the final place – it’s devisive but there are enough people that think it’s a stonecold classic to push it over the line. I’d love to see Armour in the Best Picture race but I think it’s just gonna be squeezed out.

    As for Skyfall and TDKR – like Sasha says are voters really going to put either as their first choice? Skyfall was a great success in Britain, but while well-reviewed for a Bond film I don’t remember many critics talking about it as film of the year. And TDKR will suffer from not quite being as good as the previous film – there won’t be any Return of The King-esque rewarding of a great series. Techincal nods aplenty for both though.

    I also think Hooper will miss out on the Best Director nom. Spielberg, Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, and Tarantino for me. And if he does miss out then Les Mis’ rapidly declining chances of winning Best Picture go completely.

  84. rufussondheim

    Pitch Perfect is fun (at times) but I think it tries too hard at times. The subplot with the father was terrible and ultimately pointless.

    I wish the film would have been more like Revenge of the Nerds focusing more on the rivals and less on the gooey personal stuff.

    What eventually made it work was Anna Kendrick, even though she never convincingly pulls of being a freshman in college. But she’s still so watchable you don’t really care about that.

  85. ^ I feel the same way about Moonrise Kingdom.
    I like it a lot, but it’s no Meatballs.

  86. “We do know that if there were five right now they would be: Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook/Les Miserables/Django Unchained fighting it out for that last slot.”…

    Huh? Life of Pi over Silver Linings and Les Mis… NO WAY! If their were five it’s easy… Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Mis and Silver Linings. Django would be 6. I’d lump Pi in with Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom as 7-9 with The Master, Best Exotic Marigold and Skyfall knocking on the top 10-12.

  87. Tero Heikkinen

    “For some crazy reasons the Brits think James Bond is some national treasure (see Olympics opening).”

    At the Olympics opening they also showed a lot of love for Tolkien. Yet, we don’t see The Hobbit going anywhere. TDKR team has A LOT of British talent behind it, but, of course, Batman is still an American invention. The Avengers is very much American.

  88. rufussondheim

    Well, EW came out with their predictions. They don’t have Dave Karger anymore so I guess we’ll find out if EW’s spot on predicting ability was from Karger or inherent in the publication. Any way you look it, their pretty predictable.

    They have Moonrise Kingdom at #7 for BP and Django is not in the top 10.

    They have Phoenix on theouts in Best Actor.

    Two Frenchies in Best Actress

    Hooper for Best Director

    Best Supporting Actor – Waltz plus the four winners. No Bardem.

    Best Supp Actress – Maggie Smith is in but Amy Adams most vulnerable if Dowd sneaks in.

    Original Screenplay Amour is Spot five over Flight

    Adapted – Chbosky in slot five over Magee

    Surprising that The Master is not listed in Screenplay, not even as a possible alternate. That’s the only real shocker of the picks, although I think he has Maggie Smith rated too highly.

    If you’ve been paying attention you should be able to fill in the blanks.

    And, no, The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit didn’t figure in the picks so you fanboys can start complaining.

  89. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    I feel like Les Mis reactions are all over the place. People I expected would lovvvvve it, only liked it. People I never would have thought would even go see it, loved it (like my 25 yr. old male cop friend who said it was “over the top amazing”). And then there are many people I know who say, “I would never see anything like that. Looks boring.”

    So reactions are everywhere.

    That is how you define a divisive movie.

  90. rufussondheim

    But 49% can hate it if the other 51% love it enough.

  91. the only for-sure locks are Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Mis, Lincoln and Silver Linings. Beyond those 5, Django is the easily the next favorite. Skyfall has a very small chance still, although the Producer’s Guild is very important. Still, there are only 2 recent films to get an Oscar nomination without a nomination from one of the major critics circles or the SAG: District 9 and The Blind Side (both, importantly, in the year when they forced 10 nominations). District 9 did have the PGA nomination, however, so that is a plus for Skyfall. This one mentions for Skyfall here at the PGAs is not a good predictor that it will make the Oscar list.

  92. Astarisborn

    Life of Pi and Ang Lee are in. It’s a cinematic choice given.

    Top Five
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Lining Playbook

  93. Chris138

    “Adapted – Chbosky in slot five over Magee”

    God I hope that prediction becomes a reality…

  94. @Tero: It wasn’t a Tolkien character that escorted the Queen of England to the Olympics, it was James Bond. James Bond and the Queen-two relics of the old British Empire. Tolkien doesn’t have the same association. Just wait until BAFTA to see how much the Brits love their James Bond. Skyfall is going to be nominated for everything: Best British Film, best actor, best actress, best supporting actor, etc.

  95. danemychal

    rufus – I just got that issue of EW in the mail this evening too. Not too shockingly to me, anyway, Breznican says if there were a top five it’d be simple. Then he goes on to list the same 5 I wrote in my post here earlier this morning. Only thing I think he is dead wrong about was he didn’t even mention Django as a possibility for BP. It’s getting in. It got a PGA nom and was big with the Globes. Maybe just an oversight but he has Amour and Marigold Hotel getting it without even tossing Django a bone in BP.

    I agree with almost everything else he wrote. He called DDL and Hathaway near locks to win (but still said Hathaway could be vulnerable to Field).

  96. danemychal

    Oh, and he had Hooper in director lineup but said his spot is the most vulnerable (and failed to mention the next tier of names). We know them as Russell, Tarantino and Haneke.

  97. Jerry: “It wasn’t a Tolkien character that escorted the Queen of England to the Olympics, it was James Bond. James Bond and the Queen-two relics of the old British Empire. Tolkien doesn’t have the same association. Just wait until BAFTA to see how much the Brits love their James Bond. Skyfall is going to be nominated for everything: Best British Film, best actor, best actress, best supporting actor, etc.”

    Then it’s time for the American bloc to offset the Brits, then. It’s James freakin’ Bond, people. There are reasons why they’ve never sniffed any major Oscar nominations for the past 50 years.

  98. steve50

    Re: the divisiveness of Les Mis

    New Yorker Magazine’s David Denby sets fire to it in his article. (WOW, and I thought some of us were tough on it, but nobody came down as hard as this)

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/culture/2013/01/theres-still-hope-for-people-who-love-les-miserables.html

  99. steve50

    Actually – antoinette did go at Les Mis with the same gusto (and paid for it)

  100. frankiej

    Don’t bother with PITCH PERFECT, Ryan. I drank the Kool-Aid and watched it after watching Godard’s WEEKEND (not the smartest move) and I found NOTHING interesting about it except Rebel Wilson–and even she was mildly entertaining. The double-feature proved to me that Hollywood films are usually predictable crap while intellectually challenging French 60’s films with brilliant moments–while making my brain hurt–at least made it feel something!

  101. Bball_Jake

    Easy year to predict BP nods:
    Argo
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Life of Pi
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Les Miserables
    Django Unchained
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Moonrise Kingdom

  102. rufussondheim

    With all due respect to David Denby, he is a fucking idiot. He seems to think he is an expert on the show/movie after one viewing, and it’s one that he probably never gave a full effort to comprehend seeing he spend more time hating it than watching it. Because I have the time (regrettably) I will point out his biases and ultimately his ignorance.

    …Didn’t any of my neighbors notice how absurdly gloomy and dolorous the story was? … – Yes, we did. The story is called (in English) The Miserable Ones. That should have been his first clue. But what we get here is the first hint of his inherent bias.

    …How the absence of dancing concentrated all the audience’s pleasure on the threadbare songs?… Hmm, yes, there is no dancing. This isn’t Cancan. And here we go with “pleasure” again. What is he trying to get at? Let’s read on.

    …The young women, trembling like leaves in a storm, battered this way and that by men, never exercise much will or intelligence… Hmm. It seems he forgot this was the 1830’s. Too bad Betty Friedan and Gloria Steinem weren’t born yet. Plus, I don’t see how any of the women were less intelligent than any of the men. In fact, Mrs Thenaridier was more intelligent than the Mister. And Eponine ain’t no dummy. Sure Cosette’s a little dim, but she’s been hidden away her whole life. And that leaves Fantine, who was trapped in the events not of her making. If she were only smart enough to own an iPad so she could register for Unemployment Insurance online and find a good sexual harassment lawyer. I point this out because it’s now clear that Denby actually didn’t watch the movie. Or at least he didn’t understand what was going on.

    …The music is…without harmonic richness or surprise… Oh, OK, kind of like The Umbrellas of Cherbourg? There is virtually no harmony in that one, yet it’s widely recognized as one of the great movie musical scores out there.

    …Listen to any score by Richard Rodgers or Leonard Bernstein or Fritz Loewe if you want to hear genuine melodic invention… Ah, melody! He kinda sounds like Joe when he sings…

    There’s not a tune you can hum.
    There’s not a tune you go bum-bum-bum-di-dum.
    You need a tune you can bum-bum-bum-di-dum —
    Give me a melody!

    Why can’t you throw ‘em a crumb?
    What’s wrong with letting ‘em tap their toes a bit?
    I’ll let you know when Stravinsky has a hit —
    Give me some melody!

    …My fellow-countrymen, we are the people of Jerome Kern and Irving Berlin! Cole Porter and George Gershwin, Frank Loesser and Burton Lane! We taught the world what popular melody was!… Sounds like David Denby is trapped in a timewarp and needs to be sent back to 1956 pronto! I guess he’s never hear of (you guessed it) Stephen Sondheim.

    …That the story doesn’t connect to our world… Oh, I guess as a member of the 1% he hasn’t heard of the 99%. Or, I guess he’s never heard of war or injustice or inequality or love.

    …Which brings us to heart of the material’s appeal. As everyone knows, the stage show was a killer for girls between the ages of eight and about fourteen. If they have seen “Les Mis” and responded to it as young women, they remain loyal to the show—and to the emotions it evoked—forever… Oh, I get it. Only womenfolk are stupid enough to fall for it. The menfolk, we like smart stuff!

    …But whom, may I ask, is everyone crying for? For Fantine? Fantine is hardly on the screen before she is destroyed. It can’t be the material itself that’s producing those tears… Oh, so you’re saying that women (remember men can’t feel these emotions) can’t identify with the concept of a man leaving them with a child, leaving them a single mother, and then having the child be taken away and being unable to support the child? Women can’t be moved by a worst-case scenario that could happen in their own lives? Or, similarly, those of us with a bit of imagination and some empathy are idiots.

    …Revolution breaks out in “Les Mis.” What revolution? Against whom? In favor of what? It’s just revolution—the noble sacrifice of handsome, ardent boys taking on merciless power. The French military, those canaille, gun down the beautiful boys. It’s all so generic. The vagueness is insulting… Oh, again, I guess we can’t indentify with people willing to die for a cause (overthrowing a tyrannical and greedy governing body) because war is not part of our daily lives, has never been part of our daily lives, and, let’s go all the way, the country was not founded on revolution. I guess we should have no appreciation for the millions of people who died for our freedom to cry in a dark theater with hundreds of strangers.

    …And now, the real point: our great musicals were something miraculous. They were a blessed artifice devoted to pleasure, to ease and movement, exultation in the human body, jokes and happy times, the giddiness of high hopes… I guess being trapped in 1956 he never got to see Cabaret, Fiddler on the Roof, A chorus Line, Sweeney Todd, Sunday in the Park with George, Falsettos, Rent, or Spring Awakening (for starters)

    ….Download the Astaire-Rogers “Top Hat” from Amazon. Throw it on a big screen if you can. Or download “Singin’ in the Rain,” with Gene Kelly and Debbie Reynolds, or “The Band Wagon,” with Fred Astaire and Cyd Charisse, or “An American in Paris,”… All fine movies indeed, but again, all before Sondheim helped reinvent the musical starting in the 1950’s with West Side Story. But I guess Denby was tapping his toes a bit and became too dizzy to see that one.

    …“Les Mis,” as everyone knows, is sung all the way through, like an opera. It’s an opera, however, with music not worth listening to. But if you enjoy the convention of an entirely sung play, I suggest listening to another successful piece of musical theatre based on a work by Victor Hugo—Verdi’s “Rigoletto,”… And here we see Denby conflate the Opera Genre with the technical definition of opera. Nor does he seem to understand what musical theater is. Musical theater is not opera. Just because both are plays with music doesn’t mean they are in the same genre.

    In short, it’s OK to hate Les Miserables, but to chastise the people who do like it because it’s not your cup of tea doesn’t mean it’s bad or that the people who like it are worthy of derision. After all, a lor of us who do like it (even guiltily) are far more well-versed on the history of musical theater and how Les Miz fits into that history that David Denby is. He’s a member of the cultural elite, looking down on the masses. No wonder he doesn’t like Les Miz, he’s what the protagonists in Les Miz are fighting against.

  103. Scottish Jellyfish

    Agree with above posters. Skyfall’s nomination merely means it will more than likely have quite a few technical nominations. DGA nom seems highly unlikely for it. Although stranger things have happened.

  104. @Tero: Even though Brits also showed for love for Tolkien in Olympics opening, The Hobbit doesn’t have the critical acclaim of Skyfall…

    @PaulH: I guess times have changed… Brits might want to be represented in BP nominees and Skyfall I think is the best bet they have, well aside from Les Mis, BEMH because of its performace at the BO…

  105. blah too much vomit in this Pitch perfect film. i shouldnt have watched it

  106. PaulH, you must explain to me your hate of Skyfall. You complain about how blockbusters that made over a billion worldwide like Avengers and Batman are wrongly passed over, but Skyfall made 300 million more than Hunger Games, a movie you have championed. You have also noted that Avengers, Batman, and Hunger Games were critically adored while being financial juggernauts. Well, Skyfall was at 92 percent on Rotten Tomatoes — the same as Avengers, and higher than Avengers and Hunger Games.

    I don’t think Skyfall is that great, but it is at least as high-minded as Dark Knight and more so than Avengers. Did you see it? You spent weeks complaining about indie movies taking slots from your big three, but now you are cannibalizing another blockbuster that I doubt you’ve actually seen.

  107. Glenn UK

    And the Les Miz hatred continues – LOL. There is actually very little between Django and Les Miz. Les Miz got an audience A rating whilst Django got an A- rating, so what is all this nonsense about divisive audiences?? Django is in more theatres. It is not what is happening now, its which film has got the legs. PLUS let’s see how the two compare across the globe – I’m pretty certain I know the outcome of that “battle”. Considering the harsh reviews Les Miz has received it is doing amazing box office, which warms my heart because many a good film has suffered at the hands of critics.

  108. To those underestimating Moonrise Kingdom…

    …the Central Ohio Film Critics Association LOVED it! Here are their winners, announced last night:

    http://screenonscreen.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/central-ohio-film-critics-association.html

  109. Patrick

    “Les Miz got an audience A rating whilst Django got an A- rating, so what is all this nonsense about divisive audiences??”
    Glenn, please don’t use CinemaScore to measure divisiveness. CinemaScore is only based on opening night, and others here have already pointed out that Les Mis is front-loaded by its large existing fanbase.

    “Django is in more theatres.”
    Yes, more theatres, yet it has a higher per-theatre average. Neither Django nor Les Mis have changed their theatre count since releasing on Christmas. Les Mis had a higher per-theatre average from Dec. 25-28, but after that, Django went ahead.

  110. steve50

    Well said, rufus – I knew you would have an intelligent retort to Denby’s post! You should post your reply on his site – seriously.

    While I’m not a fan of the film, I agree on your points regarding the musical itself.

    My main question hit me at the beginning of the article – that this resident NYC critic had never seen the stage show. What that tells me is that he really isn’t a fan of stage musicals, at least in that form, and certainly, as you said, since the late fixties.

    (Thought it would get your juices going, though)

  111. If you look at these boards, you can see an average of 2 movies nominated to PGA and absent of Oscar. That said, I think that there will only be eight movies in the Best Pic category this year. Beasts or Moonrise will be out of the AMPAS’ list.

    Skyfall? No chances. If Bardem actually receives the nomination, it will be already a thing to celebrate (by those who loved the movie – not my case).

  112. I’m another one to agreed with Evan.

    If there were only five noms for Best Pic, I think they would be: Argo, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook (Weinsten Co., hello!) and Les Mis/Django/Life of Pi for the fifth place.

    For Best Director, by the other hand, Lee has more chances than Hooper.

  113. Let’s not forget one thing: last year the PGA nominated BRIDESMAIDS. It had the SAG ensemble nod, the WGA nod and a Globe nod. It was a film that somehow became a huge hit and the press loved it. In the end two nods, but no best picture nod.

    And THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had everything it needed. It had the PGA, the DGA, the WGA, the ASC, the Cinema Editors Guild. It had some Globe love. And it was Fincher after TSN. It wasn’t nominated.

    EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE. Globes? Zero. Guilds: no PGA, no DGA, no WGA, no SAG. In the end it was a best picture contender.

    THE TREE OF LIFE. Globes? ZERO. DGA – no. PGA – no. WGA – no. SAG – no. ASC nod only. A nominee for picture.

    So there are no real locks beyond the top 5. And BEASTS and THE MASTER are very much in the game.

  114. rufussondheim

    Zooey hits the nail on the head without naming the hammer she’s using. To elaborate, last year’s nomination system was the first time it was used and it gave us some curious results that confounded our expectations.

    And yet, so many people love to use the same precursers this year to predict. But you can’t. See last year.

  115. @rufus Hasn’t the process even changed further though? Last year they ranked ten films didn’t they? And this year only five? That’s why I’m afraid we may only get 5-7 nominees for BP which would be tragic, imo.

  116. rufussondheim

    I’m pretty sure they had five last year, too. When the academy released their yearly rule changes, nothing was mentioned about Best Pic.

  117. Ryan Pitch Perfect is fluff. Pure unadulterated fluff. But fun fluff. The music is contemporary and arranged and scored to grab you. It works. There is no overblown love drama. There are no devils or paranormal activity. The vomit scene was overdone. An homage to Bridesmaids if you will. It doesn’t pretend to be anymore than what it is, it’s not trying to be an overblown adaption of some Broadway musical or an intelligent debacle of some Tolstoian novel. It’s just a bunch of kids singing accapella and doing it damn good. It’s just fun. And I like fun, I like walking out of a film sometimes and not having to think but just smiling.

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