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SAG Preview – The Silver Acting Playbook

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If there is to be a Crash/Driving Miss Daisy/Chariots of Fire-like upset in Best Picture, there is a great chance it will show up here, in the SAG ensemble award.  The one-two punch of one movie winning both the PGA and SAG could mean the Oscar race is over.  What if two different films win? It’s happened before. It happened last year.  What less likely to happen, though, is that the Academy will reflect SAG over the PGA for the simple fact that the PGA is the only other major awards group that uses the preferential ballot with ten nominees.

Since 2009, when the Oscar voters switched to more than five nominees, they’ve only matched SAG ensemble once, and that was with The King’s Speech that made a sweep of the guilds.  Last year, The Help won. In 2009, Inglourious Basterds won.  That’s only three years to make comparisons but it’s enough to say that there’s a good chance it won’t match with Best Picture this year.  Then again it might. For the first time in a long while Best Picture is up for grabs.

Best Actress
The real showdown here is Jessica Chastain vs. Jennifer Lawrence for lead actress.  There is a model for a lead actress winning without any other SAG nominations but those have generally gone to vets – Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball, Julie Christie for Away from Her, Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side.  That might bode well for Chastain in that most actors know she came from stage.  That puts her slightly in the “respectability” category.

actress

On the other hand, Jennifer Lawrence is a huge, popular star in a film that those actors LOVED. They didn’t give it four acting nominations, like the actors in the Academy but they gave it three.  There are 100,000 of them so it’s hard to think they won’t go for the bigger star in the movie they liked THAT much.

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Might win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty  

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis has already won two SAG prizes for Best Actor. He’s going on number 3 and will probably win.  But as you saw from the blowback from critics, even the Los Angeles Film Critics could not see fit to award Daniel Day-Lewis, so you just never know what people will do.  The two actors who might give him a bit of a challenge would be Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables and Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings. Again, if they LOVED Silver Linings THAT much, as it appears that they do, they might opt for the more popular star, Cooper, who has the added advantage of playing a character with a disability and you know how Oscar/SAG voters love characters with disabilities!   Would that the disabled among us were THAT richly reward in real life. Also, don’t forget when Johnny Depp won Best Actor for Pirates. There is a People’s Choice/Golden Globes thread that runs through the SAG that makes them more apt to award more popular stars and films than the Oscars.

Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Who might win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings or Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln 

Best Supporting Actress

I think it’s down to Sally Field vs. Anne Hathaway and I think Hathaway has this.  It’s true that Field is enormously popular in the actor’s branch but all of the buzz is with Hathaway and she’ll carry it through to the Oscar.  Sally Field has only been nominated once for her film work, for Forrest Gump and lost to Dianne Wiest  for Bullets Over Broadway.  If SAG voters are paying attention, which they probably aren’t, they would award Sally Field after all of these years.  I’m guessing that the SAG voters really did get nor like Lincoln all THAT much so I would have to say that Hathaway can’t be beat.

Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserable
Who might win: Sally Field, Lincoln
Who should win: a tough call but the edge goes to Field for the more difficult performance overall. Both actresses are deserving.  

Best Supporting Actor

This is one of the toughest categories to call. It is a race without a frontrunner.  Robert De Niro has won two Oscars but he’s never won a SAG.  Tommy Lee Jones and Alan Arkin have won SAGs in ensemble only but not in individual categories.  Philip Seymour Hoffman has the biggest part in a movie they didn’t like well enough to even give Amy Adams or Joaquin Phoenix nominations.  I don’t know for sure because anyone could win here and it wouldn’t be THAT surprising but something tells me that it will be a night for Silver Linings Playbook to take supporting actor, actress and ensemble.  Of course, if Alan Arkin wins for Argo you know that tells you Argo is about to win ensemble.   Or Tommy Lee Jones could signal a Lincoln win.  

Who will win: I have no idea but I’ll say Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Who might win: Alan Arkin, Argo or Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. 
Who should win: Tommy Lee Jones or Philip Seymour Hoffman

Ensemble

Heading into the race, there are probably two movies that are fighting it out for the Ensemble prize and that would be Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.  I have heard actors talking about Silver Linings and how much they loved it on two separate occasions.  I have heard many people, in fact, talking about Silver Linings so that least me to believe it is the one to beat in a large consensus vote of 100,00 actors.  Then again, if Argo wins they get to see gorgeous George Clooney and equally gorgeous Ben Affleck take the stage.

It helps to have surprising nominations turn up to show how much the SAG loves a movie – Diane Kruger getting in for Inglourious Basterds, Tommy Lee Jones for No Country for Old Men, Joe Fiennes for Shakespeare in Love, Don Cheadle for Crash, and Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire.  If one of the other supporting actors from Les Miserables had made it in, like Eddie Redmayne or Samantha Barks that could signal a Les Miserables win (it could still win if Argo and Silver Linings split the vote).

Slumdog Millionaire and Return of the King (no other acting noms)  are probably the least nominated film to film to win ensemble there but they were winning everything anyway and their winning the SAG was a good bet that those films would go on to sweep the Oscars, having the actors on board.

I was the president of the drama club in high school and I studied at the Los Angeles Theater Academy and got my degree from UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television I like to think I know actors.  If Lincoln wins the SAG ensemble that means Lincoln is about to sweep the Oscars. If it doesn’t win, we’re probably headed for some kind of a split year. Not to be insulting or anything, but having been an actor and spent a lot of time with actors they are probably going to fall into the “Lincoln was boring” group.  Lincoln is like Return of the King in that it is a gigantic, undeniable ensemble of some of the best actors Hollywood has to offer.  Hell, most of the members of the Screen Actors Guild are IN Lincoln.

On the other hand – the sheer number of players in Lincoln could easily give it the win.

What will win: Silver Linings Playbook
What might win: Argo
What should win: Lincoln.

Screen Actors Guild

Official Site

Actor Comparison Charts

Won SAG | Won Oscar

Actor 2012
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
John Hawkes, The Sessions Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Actress
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock Emannuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, Skyfall Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Alan Arkin, Argo Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actress
Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master Amy Adams, The Master
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Lincoln Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables Les Miserables
Argo Argo
Best Exotice Marigold Hotel Zero Dark Thirty, etc.

 

Actor 2011
Jean DuJardin, The Artist Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Demian Bichir, A Better Life Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress 2011
Viola Davis, The Help Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Supporting Actor 2011
Christopher Plummer, Beginners Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Nick Nolte, Warrior Nick Nolte, Warrior
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball Jonah Hill, Moneyball
J. Edgar: Armie Hammer Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close
Supporting Actress 2011
Octavia Spencer, The Help Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help Jessica Chastain, The Help
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
The Help The Help
The Artist The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris
The Descendants The Descendants
Actor 2010
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jeff Bridges, True Grit Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours James Franco, 127 Hours
Actress
Natalie Portman, Black Swan Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Hillary Swank, Conviction Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Supporting Actor
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Christian Bale, the Fighter Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jeremy Renner, The Town Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS Helena Bonham Carter, TKS
Mila Kunis, Black Swan Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Fighter The Fighter
Black Swan Black Swan
The Kids Are Alright The Kids Are Alright
The Social Network The Social Network


Won SAG | Won Oscar

Actor 2009
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
George Clooney, Up in the Air George Clooney, Up in the Air
Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus Matt Damon, Invictus
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones Stanely Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, Precious Mo’Nique, Precious
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Penelope Cruz, Nine Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds
An Education An Education
Nine Nine
Precious Precious
The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker

Won SAG | Won Oscar

Actor 2008
Sean Penn, Milk Sean Penn, Milk
Frank langella, Frost/Nixon Frank langella, Frost/Nixon
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Actress
Meryl Streep Doubt Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road Kate Winslet, The Reader
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting marries
Melissa Leo, Frozen River Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Angelina Jolie, Changeling Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Josh Brolin, Milk Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
Amy Adams, Doubt Amy Adams, Doubt
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button
Milk Milk
Doubt The Reader

 

Actor 2007
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
George Clooney, Michael Clayton George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Actress
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Julie Christie, Away from Her Julie Christie, Away from Her
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth
Ellen Page, Juno Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart Laura Linney, The Savages
Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Casey Affleck, Jesse James Casey Affleck, Jesse James
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Ruby Dee, American Gangster Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
3:10 to Yuma Atonement
Into the Wild Michael Clayton
Hairspray Juno
American Gangster There Will Be Blood

 

Actor 2006
Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Peter O’Toole (Venus) Peter O’Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
Actress
Penelope Cruz (Volver) Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen) Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children) Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children) Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirl)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed) Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Babel Babel
Bobby Letters From Iwo Jima
The Departed The Departed
Dreamgirls Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine Little Miss Sunshine

 

Actor 2005
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote Hoffman
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain Ledger
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
David Strathairn, Good Night Strathairn
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line Phoenix
Actress
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line Witherspoon
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents Dench
Charlize Theron, North Country Theron
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica Huffman
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana Clooney
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain Gyllenhaal
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man Giamatti
Matt Dillon, Crash Dillon
Don Cheadle, Crash William Hurt, History of Violence
Supporting Actress
Rachiel Weisz, The Constant Gardener Weisz
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain Williams
Catherine keener, Capote Keener
Amy Adams, Junebug Adams
Frances McDormand, North Country McDormand
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain
Crash Crash
Capote Capote
Good Night and Good Luck Good Night, and Good Luck
Hustle & Flow Munich

 

Actor 2004
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda Don Cheadle
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland Johnny Depp
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator Leo DiCaprio
Jamie Foxx, Ray Jamie Foxx
Paul Giamatti, Sideways Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Actress
Annette Bening / Being Julia Annette Bening
Catalina Sandino Moreno /Maria Full of Grace Cataline Sandino Moreno
Imelda Staunton / Vera Drake Imelda Staunton
Hilary Swank / Million Dollar Baby Hilary Swank
Kate Winslet / Eternal Sunshine Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways Thomas Haden Church
Jamie Foxx, Collateral Jamie Foxx
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby Morgan Freeman
James Garner, The Notebook Alan Alda, The Aviator
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland Clive Owen, Closer
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator Cate Blanchett
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish Natalie Portman, Closer
Laura Linney, Kinsey Laura Linney
Virginia Madsen, Sideways Virginia Madsen
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Sophie Okonedo
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting
The Aviator The Aviator
Finding Neverland Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby Million Dollar Baby
Sideways Sideways
Ray Ray
Hotel Rwanda

 

Best Actor 2003
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River Sean Penn, Mystic River
Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Best Actress
Patricia Clarkson, Station Agent Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Charlize Theron, Monster Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen Samantha Morton, In America
Supporting Actor:
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit Djimon Hounsou, In America
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Tim Robbins, Mystic River Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
Supporting Actress:
Maria Bello, The Cooler Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Holly Hunter, Thirteen Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Ensemble:
In America Master and Commander
ROTK ROTK
Mystic River Mystic River
Seabiscuit Seabiscuit
The Station Agent Lost in Translation

2002

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Pianist Adrien Brody
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Nicolas Cage
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Daniel Day-Lewis
Richard Gere, Chicago Michael Caine
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt Jack Nicholson
Best Actress
Salma Hayek, Frida Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Renee Zellweger, Chicago Renee Zellweger, Chicago
Supporting Actor:
Chris Cooper, Adaptation Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours Ed Harris, The Hours
Alfred Molina, Frida Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can
Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours Julianne Moore, The Hours
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Queen Latifah, Chicago Queen Latifah, Chicago
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
Ensemble:
Adaptation The Pianist
Chicago Chicago
The Hours The Hours
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding Gangs of New York

 

Best Actor: 2001
Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind) Russell Crowe
Kevin Kline (Life as a House) Will Smith
Sean Penn (I Am Sam) Sean Penn
Denzel Washington (Training Day) Denzel Washington
Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom) Tom Wilkinson
Best Actress:
Halle Berry (Monster’s Ball) Halle Berry
Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind) Nicole Kidman (MR!)
Judi Dench (Iris) Judi Dench
Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom) Sissy Spacek
Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones’s Diary) Renee Zellweger
Best Supporting Actor:
Jim Broadbent (Iris) Jim Broadbent
Hayden Christensen (Life as a House) Jon Voight (Ali)
Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast) Ben Kingsley
Ian McKellen (LOTR) Ian McKellen
Ethan Hawke (Training Day) Ethan Hawke
Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Mirren (Gosford Park) Helen Mirren
Dakota Fanning (I Am Sam) Jennifer Connelly (Beautiful Mind)
Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky) Maggie Smith (Gosford Park)
Judi Dench (The Shipping News) Kate Winslet (Iris)
Cate Blanchett (Bandits) Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom)
Ensemble: Best Picture:
A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park Gosford Park
In the Bedroom In the Bedroom
Moulin Rouge! Moulin Rouge!
Lord of the Rings Lord of the Rings

 

Best Actor: 2000
Jamie Bell, Billy Elliot Ed Harris
Russell Crowe, Gladiator Russell Crowe, Gladiator
Benicio Del Toro, Traffic Javier Bardem
Tom Hanks, Cast Away Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Geoffrey Rush, Quills Geoffrey Rush, Quills
Best Actress:
Joan Allen, The Contender Joan Allen, The Contender
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat Juliette Binoche, Chocolat
Ellyn Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream Ellyn Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream
Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me
Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
Best Supporting Actor:
Jeff Bridges, The Contender Jeff Bridges, The Contender
Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire
Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich
Gary Oldman, The Contender Benicio Del Toro, Traffic
Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator
Best Supporting Actress:
Judi Dench, Chocolat Judi Dench, Chocolat
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
Frances McDormand, Almost Famous Frances McDormand, Almost Famous
Kate Winslet, Quills Julie Walters, Billy Elliot
Julie Walters, Billy Elliot Marcia Gay Harden, Pollack
Best Ensemble
Almost Famous Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Gladiator Gladiator
Billy Elliot Billy Elliot
Erin Brockovich Erin Brockovich
Traffic Traffic

 

Best Actor: 1999
Denzel Washington, The Hurricane Denzel Washington, The Hurricane
Jim Carrey, Man on the Moon Sean Penn, Sweet and Lowdown
Russell Crowe, The Insider Russell Crowe, The Insider
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Flawless Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story
Kevin Spacey, American Beauty Kevin Spacey, American Beauty
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, American Beauty Annette Bening, American Beauty
Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart
Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry
Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair
Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds
Best Supporting Actress:
Cameron Diaz, Being John Malkovich Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich
Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry
Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
Julianne Moore, Magnolia Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense
Best Supporting Actor:
Michael Caine, Cider House Rules Michael Caine, Cider House Rules
Tom Cruise, Magnolia Tom Cruise, Magnolia
Chris Cooper, American Beauty Jude Law, Talented Mr. Ripley
Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile
Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense
Ensemble: Best Picture:
American Beauty American Beauty
Being John Malkovich Sixth Sense
The Cider House Rules The Cider House Rules
The Green Mile The Green Mile
Magnolia The Insider

 

Best Actor: 1998
Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful
Joseph Fiennes in Shakespeare In Love Edward Norton in American History X
Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan
Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters
Nick Nolte in Affliction Nick Nolte in Affliction
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth
Jane Horrocks in Little Voice Fernanda Montenegro in Central Station
Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love
Meryl Streep in One True Thing Meryl Streep in One True Thing
Emily Watson in Hilary and Jackie Emily Watson in Hilary and Jackie
Supporting Actor:
James Coburn in Affliction James Coburn in Affliction
Robert Duvall in A Civil Action Robert Duvall in A Civil Action
David Kelly in Waking Ned Devine Ed Harris in The Truman Show
Geoffrey Rush in Shakespeare In Love Geoffrey Rush in Shakespeare In Love
Billy Bob Thornton in A Simple Plan Billy Bob Thornton in A Simple Plan
Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates in Primary Colors Kathy Bates in Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn in Little Voice Brenda Blethyn in Little Voice
Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love
Rachel Griffiths in Hilary and Jackie Rachel Griffiths in Hilary and Jackie
Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters
ENSEMBLE Best Picture:
Life Is Beautiful Life Is Beautiful
Little Voice The Thin Red Line
Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan
Shakespeare In Love Shakespeare In Love
Waking Ned Devine Elizabeth

 

Best Actor: 1997
Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting
Robert Duvall in The Apostle Robert Duvall in The Apostle
Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold
Dustin Hoffman in Wag the Dog Dustin Hoffman in Wag the Dog
Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets
Best Actress:
Helena Bonham Carter -Wings Of the Dove Helena Bonham Carter – Wings Of the Dove
Judi Dench in Mrs Brown Judi Dench in Mrs Brown
Pam Grier in Jackie Brown Julie Christie in Afterglow
Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets
Kate Winslet in Titanic Kate Winslet in Titanic
Robin Wright Penn in She’s So Lovely
Best Supporting Actor:
Billy Connolly in Mrs Brown Robert Forster in Jackie Brown
Anthony Hopkins in Amistad Anthony Hopkins in Amistad
Greg Kinnear in As Good As It Gets Greg Kinnear in As Good As It Gets
Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights
Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting
Best Supporting Actress:
Kim Basinger in L. A. Confidential Kim Basinger in L. A. Confidential
Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting
Alison Elliott in The Wings Of the Dove Joan Cusack in In & Out
Julianne Moore in Boogie Nights Julianne Moore in Boogie Nights
Gloria Stuart in Titanic Gloria Stuart in Titanic
Enemble: Best Picture:
Boogie Nights As Good As It Gets
The Full Monty The Full Monty
Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting
L. A. Confidential L. A. Confidential
Titanic Titanic

 

Best Actor: 1996
Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes in The English Patient Ralph Fiennes in The English Patient
Woody Harrelson in The People vs. Larry Flynt Woody Harrelson in The People vs. Larry Flynt
Geoffrey Rush in Shine Geoffrey Rush in Shine
Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade
Best Actress:
Brenda Blethyn in Secrets & Lies Brenda Blethyn in Secrets & Lies
Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room
Frances McDormand in Fargo Frances McDormand in Fargo
Gena Rowlands in Unhook the Stars Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves
Kristin Scott Thomas in The English Patient Kristin Scott Thomas in The English Patient
Best Supporting Actor:
Hank Azaria in The Birdcage Edward Norton in Primal Fear
Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire
Nathan Lane in The Birdcage Armin Mueller-Stahl in Shine
William H. Macy in Fargo William H. Macy in Fargo
Noah Taylor in Shine James Woods in Ghosts Of Mississippi
Best Supporting Actress:
Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces
Juliette Binoche in The English Patient Juliette Binoche in The English Patient
Marisa Tomei in Unhook the Stars Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Secrets & Lies
Gwen Verdon in Marvin’s Room Barbara Hershey in The Portrait Of a Lady
Renée Zellweger in Jerry Maguire Joan Allen in The Crucible
Enemble:
The Birdcage Jerry Maguire
The English Patient The English Patient
Marvin’s Room Secrets & Lies
Shine Shine
Sling Blade Fargo

 

Best Actor: 1995
Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas
Anthony Hopkins in Nixon Anthony Hopkins in Nixon
James Earl Jones in Cry, The Beloved Country Richard Dreyfuss in Mr. Holland’s Opus
Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking Sean Penn in Dead Man Walking
Massimo Troisi in Il Postino Massimo Troisi in Il Postino
Best Actress:
Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking
Joan Allen in Nixon Sharon Stone in Casino
Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas
Meryl Streep in The Bridges Of Madison County Meryl Streep in The Bridges Of Madison County
Emma Thompson in Sense and Sensibility Emma Thompson in Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor:
Kevin Bacon in Murder In the First Tim Roth in Rob Roy
Kenneth Branagh in Othello James Cromwell in Babe
Don Cheadle in Devil In A Blue Dress Brad Pitt in 12 Monkeys
Ed Harris in Apollo 13 Ed Harris in Apollo 13
Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects
Best Supporting Actress:
Stockard Channing in Smoke Kathleen Quinlan in Apollo 13
Anjelica Huston in The Crossing Guard Joan Allen in Nixon
Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite
Mare Winningham in Georgia Mare Winningham in Georgia
Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility Kate Winslet in Sense and Sensibility
Ensemble: Best Picture:
Apollo 13 Apollo 13
Get Shorty Babe
How To Make An American Quilt Braveheart
Nixon Il Postino
Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility

 

Best Actor: 1994
Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption
Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump
Paul Newman in Nobody’s Fool Paul Newman in Nobody’s Fool
Tim Robbins in The Shawshank Redemption Nigel Hawthorne in The Madness Of King George
John Travolta in Pulp Fiction John Travolta in Pulp Fiction
Best Actress:
Jodie Foster in Nell Jodie Foster in Nell
Jessica Lange in Blue Sky Jessica Lange in Blue Sky
Meg Ryan in When a Man Loves a Woman Winona Ryder in Little Women
Susan Sarandon in The Client Susan Sarandon in The Client
Meryl Streep in The River Wild Miranda Richardson in Tom & Viv
Best Supporting Actor:
Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction
Martin Landau in Ed Wood Martin Landau in Ed Wood
Chazz Palminteri in Bullets Over Broadway Chazz Palminteri in Bullets Over Broadway
Gary Sinise in Forrest Gump Gary Sinise in Forrest Gump
John Turturro in Quiz Show Paul Scofield in Quiz Show
Best Supporting Actress:
Jamie Lee Curtis in True Lies Rosemary Harris in Tom & Viv
Sally Field in Forrest Gump Helen Mirren in The Madness Of King George
Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction
Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway
Robin Wright Penn in Forrest Gump Jennifer Tilly in Bullets Over Broadway

 

205 Comments on this Post

  1. Lawrence should win; her performance was undeniably warm. Tiffany, the character is a scarred woman, who seeks redemption with a man who is as broken as her. She played it perfectly, as only she could have. Chastain was too mechanical and it wasn’t because the character called for it to be so. There was nothing to the performance; many actresses could have played the part. Not SAG or Oscar worthy for that matter. Just my humble opinion.

  2. Hell, most of the members of the Screen Actors Guild are IN Lincoln.

    Lol exactly what I was thinking.

    On the podcast, it was mentioned that Jessica Chastain may win for the fact that many SAG members are struggling actors who might empathise with her story. That could also apply to Naomi Watts, of course, who spent so long taking bit parts in crappy small productions before she got her big, lucky break. And with all that very vocal support for Naomi from high profile SAG members, they might be persuaded to vote for her.

    Just one theory. She’s still the underdog, compared to Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Glad this race hasn’t turned out as predictably as it more than once seemed it might.

  3. Sasha- Amy Adams was not nominated for a SAG for THE MASTER. Sad, but true.

  4. Khritopher

    Dev Patel was nominated for Supporting Actor at the SAG.

  5. I’m honestly so conflicted between Lawrence/Chastain because I think on first glance I think Lawrence’s performance is stronger by far. But then on second glance I look at the transformation Chastain made from “The Help” to “Take Shelter” to this and it’s just a revelation. But to be fair we are rewarding her on THIS performance alone which is why it took Meryl so long to win a 3rd Oscar.

    At the end of the day I’d be extremely happy to see either win but I do think Chastain’s career would get the bigger boost although both of them will have long healthy careers regardless.

  6. Manny-I’d watch your back, Awards Daily has officially become ground zero for the Silver Linings Playbook hate train.

  7. Anybody have any idea why LINCOLN included so few of their actors on their ensemble list? I’m sure people will vote for it thinking the majority of the speaking roles were included so it probably won’t make a difference in the voting. I’m just wondering why they choose to do something like that.

  8. Film Fatale

    Sasha,

    Wasn’t the thinking upon SAG noms that ZD30 missed the ensemble because they were last out of the gate with screeners, which did not arrive until the voting had already completed? I believe this was the case. I think suggesting that Chastain’s chances are diminished because SAG didn’t love ZD30 enough to nominate it for ensemble is a bit of a stretch, given the timing of the screeners being mailed.

  9. “Heading into the race, there are probably two movies that are fighting it out for the Ensemble prize and that would be Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.”

    Argo has about as much of a chance of winning Best Ensemble as Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, i.e. it would be an enormous shock if it happened. At least SLP has a chance. The race here would appear to be between Les Mis and Lincoln, the former representing ensemble work at its best, while the latter features brilliant individual performances.

    It would be rather tragic if SLP ends up beating both. SAG hasn’t made that big of a mistake since they gave Best Ensemble to Slumdog over Doubt. Looking over the past few outstanding winners (The Help, The King’s Speech, and Inglourious Basterds), Les Mis or Lincoln would fit perfectly on the list, whereas SLP would just seem out of place. That’s not saying the performances in SLP were bad, but all it really has going for it is Cooper and Lawrence.

  10. Hawkeye-Ensemble work at its best? That entire film is a disaster, let’s hope Les Mis wins nothing sans Hathaway.

  11. Antoinette, there are rules governing which actors are eligible to be credited in nominations in the Ensemble Cast category, I think. I can’t remember them exactly, but it’s something to do with credits.

    Someone else might fill you in rather better than I did lol.

  12. Kate Winslet didn’t get an Oscar nom for Quills – Julie Walters did get in for Billy Elliot. Can’t believe Riva is not nominated by SAG.

  13. Hey Sasha, some stats for you:

    SLP-92% with an 8.2 average rating on RT
    Lincoln-91% with an 8.1 average on RT

    So quit acting like Lincoln is the far better reviewed film when that’s highl inaccurate!

  14. marlonbrando020

    “the more difficult performance overall” – as if…she didn’t have to sing. didn’t have to cut her hair. didn’t have to deal with all those close-ups. didn’t have to get fake-raped. didn’t have to deal with Tom Hooper…

    Also, I’m still curious why half the cast isn’t even included in on the ensemble nod. I kinda get not nominating John Ortiz and Julia Stiles from SLP, but I mean, come on…

  15. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Matt, anyone who looks at Rotten Tomatoes to find good reviews or any sort of fair way to look at critical acclaim is indeed someone in search of a silver lining. Try Metacritic. 81 for SLP and 86 for Lincoln.

  16. marlonbrando020

    *I was referring to the Lincoln ensemble nod…

    I look back at 1995’s Nixon, another high-profile presidential biopic with a large ensemble. The entire cast from THAT film got nominated, but somehow they can just pick and choose from Lincoln (they didn’t even nominate Gloria Reuben from that cast)….

  17. Really Sasha, really? God, this is worse The King’s Speech 2 years ago.

  18. rufussondheim

    It’s important to make a distinction here that Sasha does not. The SAG Nominating Committee is about 2000 members. The 100,000 members only vote on the finalists.

    Many of that 100,000 do not live in LA or even New York. I have known several in the Philly area. Most of the members have a sparing number of credits, a Law and Order episode, a commercial, a featured extra. (One of my friends is in The Sixth Sense walking by when Bruce Willis is sitting on a park bench) Any way you shake it, Most SAG actors are not making full time livings on the shores of Malibu.

    I think those people will go for Les Miz, it’s easily the most recognized material and a lot of actors will be predisposed to vote for it even if they haven’t seen it. – Not sure if enough have seen SLP to properly judge it. Not sure if it matters.

    Most of the winning films cracked the 100 million mark, most, also have large casts. So that makes me think that Lincoln, Argo and Les Miz are the top three. IF SLP wins, I will be a little shocked, actually.

  19. @marlonbrando020 It is ridiculous that John Ortiz and Julia Stiles weren’t on SLP’s list too. I just always go back to TRAFFIC’s win and remember everyone and their mother was up on that stage. I thought it was people from the movie who decide who they submit, but I’m not sure.

  20. Matt, try Metacritic.

  21. Sasha is utilizing a typical, but sad ploy here. She’s overpredicting SLP in order to get more people on the hate train. SLP hasn’t won anything of significance yet, but Sasha keeps predicting it for major wins. She thought it would win all 3 Comedy Globe categories, but seemed to forget this is the HFPA and there was a musical in contention. If SLP sweeps SAG this weekend and/or wins PGA, I’ll shut up, until then it’s just black smoke being blown up in here.

  22. mecid-Yes, because Silver Linings Playbook has such a terrible score of 81 there, right? Give me a break.

  23. “Ensemble work at its best? That entire film is a disaster, let’s hope Les Mis wins nothing sans Hathaway.”

    Obviously you’re going to find a lot of people who disagree with you about that, Matt. It did get nominated for all three top guild awards after all, so the industry professionals obviously differ with you. The performances were quite amazing, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up winning.

    On a sidenote, I’m still trying to figure out how Argo got nominated for Ensemble. It’s not really an ensemble piece, nor are there any performances that are really good enough to single out. Arkin got nominated, but everyone seemed to be surprised about that, including me. I guess SAG saw something there that I’m not seeing.

  24. Hawkeye-The critics certainly don’t agree, since we’re talking Metacritic, that film has a 63 and Ebert hated it (though was sick so didn’t publish a review).

  25. rufussondheim

    You can’t go to Metacritic either, boys. Not unless you want to see Zero Dark Thirty’s 95.

    So suck it.

  26. No Matt. Metacritic is more credible and Lincoln has more than SLP there.

  27. This year guilds will have less effect on the outcome of oscars. BAFTA will be more important as a guide to who will win what.

  28. SLP should and will win.

  29. mecid-More credible? By who’s standards? Yours? Are you king of the internet?

  30. Antoinette

    On a sidenote, I’m still trying to figure out how Argo got nominated for Ensemble. It’s not really an ensemble piece, nor are there any performances that are really good enough to single out. Arkin got nominated, but everyone seemed to be surprised about that, including me. I guess SAG saw something there that I’m not seeing.

    I wish the SAG Ensemble award was really about ensemble acting. Most of my favorite films have a great ensemble in them. If they used the award appropriately it’d probably be my favorite award of the whole Oscar season. Unfortunately, they seem to use their Ensemble award as a Best Picture award. So the people in Philly with one acting credit that rufus was talking about probably just vote for their favorite film in that category, maybe not even knowing who half of the cast is.

  31. Kai-SLP deserves to win SAG Ensemble of the nominees, I’m scared if it does though that Sasha will go off the deep end.

  32. rufussondheim

    If SAG, DGA and PGA all go for Argo, BAFTA will be completely meaningless.

  33. It has 70% on RT, which is decent. I never use Metacritic because it’s far too exclusive, but even a 63 is still green. Even so, critics aren’t perfect and neither are the people in the business, but between the two, those in the business would know more about what makes a good movie. At least that’s the way I see it. There are those that blindly trust critics above all else, but I never do.

  34. “No Matt. Metacritic is more credible and Lincoln has more than SLP there.”

    By 5 points. The horror!

  35. Hawkeye-But Metacritic is the definitive resource, ask Internet Gods Sasha and mecid!

  36. Matt, people prefer Metacritic. So just stop.

    Personally I don’t give a damn about either especially coming to criticism of Spielberg’s films.

  37. People prefer Metacritic yet more people go on RT? Hmm….

  38. Chastain or Watts winning because the SAG respects working actors–again, that’s a theory that we always bandy about come SAG time, but the SAG will go with the ingenue in a popular, accessible, mainstream film over a critically acclaimed performance by a steadily working actor in a smaller film. The SAG went with Halle Berry over Sissy Spacek and Renee Zellweger and Catherine Zeta-Jones over Julianne Moore (and Halley Berry). They went with Julie Christie over Marion Cotillard even though Marion was the ingenue giving a real once-in-a-lifetime performance, because Christie had more name recognition and was in an English-language film. I don’t think enough SAG members will think of either Chastain or Watts as living legends or so good that they can beat the popularity of Lawrence and this movie, even though, of the three, Watts has been working the longest in film — especially high-profile film.

    Now I don’t see how Argo has a chance at Ensemble. The love for the film won’t carry it THIS far. The Hurt Locker, for example, overcame low box office and a Globe loss (big deal) to win the BFCA, PGA, DGA, WGA, and Oscar, but even the SAG rightfully chose Inglourious Basterds, though The Hurt Locker WAS nominated. That’s because the SAG Ensemble Award isn’t really a Best Picture award; OK, it is when the film is so undeniable or features a lovable, if green, cast, like Return of the King or Slumdog Millionaire. Mystic River losing was a surprise, but while that film had its two standout actors who won individual awards, LOTR was much more moving. And Slumdog wasn’t favored to win, but Doubt wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture, and it’s not like Milk was filled with experienced actors that most of the SAG cared to award.

    So as long as your movie is up for Best Picture in a non-sweep year and has a strong, likable cast, you don’t need to be the Best Picture frontrunner to win SAG. Lincoln should win, and Silver Linings will win (though may still lose the Oscar), but Argo could win PGA, DGA, BAFTA, and even defy the odds and take Best Picture at the Oscars, but I would be surprised if it collects any award at SAG.

    Then again, the actors may see it as their way of rewarding Ben Affleck, but does he really rate that highly? And if there’s one big star the SAG doesn’t love, it’s George Clooney since actor’s actor Paul Giamatti beat him at SAG but not Oscars even though multi-hyphenate Clooney was also up for Best Ensemble as a part of Good Night, and Good Luck.

    Now why would Clooney get to go onstage at SAG? He wasn’t in the movie, and only actors go onstage to collect the awards.

  39. I want to see Emanuelle Riva host Saturday Night Live.

  40. rufussondheim

    Could this argument be less silly and stupid. The least you can do is change your avatars so we can see some hot men.

  41. marlonbrando020

    Antoinette, sorry…I should have worded my statement better. It IS terrible that Stiles and Ortiz, two working actors (and the former, a former nominee for Dexter) get left off from a film that they had pretty sizeable parts. I still can’t figure out why SAG has to leave anyone off. It’s not like they have to give a separate trophy to everyone in the cast.

    What I meant to say is that Sasha and others go on and on about how the big Lincoln ensemble is catnip for voting actors. If it was, they wouldn’t have left off half the cast from the nomination, no matter what rules they have limiting the number of people nominated with each ensemble…

  42. I did not just write Halley Berry.

  43. rufussondheim

    Halleyberries make good smoothies.

  44. What? Me and Sasha have the exact same predictions! Is she coming over to the Silver side! But yeah, I am pretty sure if SLP is gonna hit big anywhere it will be at SAG. But Argo is still giving me some nerves. A film like that shouldn’t even be in conversation for best ensemble but I am afraid it has strong chance to win.

  45. I wonder how the comments would change here if people started using their picture and real names here. That would be cool if AD did that for one day out of the year, where it would be a requirement for commenting.

  46. Hallyberries make you FEEL good!

  47. Antoinette

    @Zach At least you didn’t call her Holly Berry, which my mom does occasionally. :)

  48. Vince-Yes Vince, then we can see what all these SLP haters really are, the same person with multiple e-mails….

  49. I personally don’t think Jessica Chastain SHOULD win. What was so special about her performance in ZDT? She gave a performance that we’ve already seen in Homeland and in fact Claire Danes did a much better job. It should either be Jennifer Lawrence or Naommi Watts

  50. Santana-Because she’s the only one that can take down the girl from SLP! This is AD, didn’t’ you know? Anything anti-SLP is a masterpiece!

  51. Matt, are you distributed by Harvey?

  52. Matt > well … I am an SLP “hater.”

    ;)

  53. I must agree that Lincoln is getting too much raves because you Americans are blinded by your heroic president. I hoped you guys would slow down on your american-centric views; it’ just so very much annoying and appears to everyone else ingorant. Just look at reviews around the world and you’ll see Lincoln not getting praised to heaven. Spielberg is one of my favorite directors but I believe Lincoln isn’t even his best movie since SPP; that’d be Munich. Also I don’t see a groundbreaking performance in DDLs work; it’s great character work for sure, but I’d prefer Cooper for his very vivid, raw and realistic performance. Just like SLPs and ZD30s Ensemble. There, I said it.

  54. mecid-Are you distributed by Metacritic?

  55. @Antoinette it took all the industry awards for Monster for my mom to stop calling Charlize Theron Charlene Tilton!

    She used to call Taylor Swift Loretta Swit too.

    She loves Marion Cotillard, and like Garbo refers to her only by her last name — unfortunately as “Cotillay.”

    When discussing this year’s Best Actress race, I’ve resorted to calling Quvenzhane Wallis “Little Black Girl.” I guess it’s better than Saoirse Ronan being “Atonement Bitch.” :|

  56. The real issue with critics is they cannot tell you if you’re going to like a movie or not… so they’re pretty much useless since most of them are only sharing their own opinions and preferences instead of forming accurate and objective judgment of the artistic merits of a given film.

  57. Thank you for you answer. I knew.

  58. The critics actually got it right this year, I have to admit. ZD30 was by far the best movie of the year.

  59. Vanessa Ferreira

    Why do you think Chastain is more deserving? Both performances are deserving, Jennifer gives a more emotive and Chastain gives the opposite. They are both equally brilliant.

  60. Antoinette

    @Zach Yup. I say “the little girl” for Quvenzhane Wallis and if she still doesn’t know who I mean I yell “Beast it!” lol

  61. mecid-lol! You people are too consumed with this shit, I hope SLP wins on Sunday so you all have a meltdown, christ.

  62. And let’s not forget that generally speaking “politically fresh” films bomb at the box-office. That ZD30 is challenging and doesn’t talk down to the audience and allows them to form their own opinions, is a testament not only to the film makers but for Americans who paid money and made this movie a hit.

  63. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    People prefer Metacritic yet more people go on RT? Hmm…

    There’s something about RT that is always going to be sloppy and dirty and I think you like that. MC works better for me because they only have actual critics on there, not just Joe Anybody.

  64. Sasha-Quoting SLP now! A sign of a true fan!

  65. Jerry Grant

    I think Lincoln is definitely more likely to get the SAG award than SLP. For the first time in his long career, Steven Spielberg has directed something we can all call an actor’s film–and what an actor’s film it is. It has more speaking parts than any American film this year. It is *formally* democratic. And, as Sasha said, half of SAG is in it. This one’s going to Lincoln.

    Most likely: 1) Lincoln, 2) SLP, 3) Argo

    (I don’t so much think that Sasha is predicting SLP for everything because she wants SLP backlash, so much as I think deep fear has caused her to prepare for the worst.)

  66. yeah well even RT is too snobby for me… I care much more abt how movies perform on BO Mojo than anywhere else.

  67. Jerry Grant

    By any standard, the critics’ reviews of Lincoln and SLP are very close. Claiming one is universally objectively better received than the other would be a weak argument this year.

  68. SLP may win SAG, but if it doesn’t take anything else, it means very little. SLP is not an amalgam of the success of Shakespeare in love and crash. If Dr. Oz prescription for seeing this film is all Harvey can do, it’s not enough. Not for best picture.

    But there certainly will be an AD meltdown on Sunday if it wins. But, again, it will end there. Mark my words. Two oscars Max. Both for acting. Jeff wells has resigned himself to such. And brad brevet is only toying with SLP winning, because he is being experimental with his prediction right now and says its too early to call.

  69. “being experimental with his predictions”
    aren’t we all?

  70. Tommy Lee Jones needs to win the Oscar for Lincoln. Not that I necessarily think he needs to have two Oscars in his lifetime, or at least before Robert De Niro wins his third. But I have to go with the actual performances as I saw them, and when I can’t stand a movie or don’t care for its performances, that’s the dealbreaker for me. I walked out of the movie not even sure if De Niro could get nominated for it. I did predict him, but he feels like this year’s Ruby Dee! Not anywhere deserving of the actual win based on this performance alone, but you just never know what the SAG or Academy will do.

  71. Yes we are. So I guess I’m being experimental when I say Amour’s chances of winning are just as great as SLP.

    But I’m being more accurate when I say SLP doesn’t stand a chance at BP armed with only a SAG win.

  72. “Sasha is utilizing a typical, but sad ploy here. She’s overpredicting SLP in order to get more people on the hate train.”

    She could also just be predicting SLP because she’s a) being bullish on the power of Weinstein, esp since he can really focus his energies on SLP b) SAG members really do love SLP?

    I’m not predicting DeNiro to win, but even with how much of an iconic career he’s had, with how well-respected he is among his peers, he’s never won a SAG award. That factor alone may be enough to push him over the top, regardless of SLP love.

    Ensemble is a toss-up among the two large casts (Lincoln, Les Mis) and the little film that could (SLP), with Argo as a dark horse. My money is still on Lincoln b/c, even if the nominating committee left out half the cast, Lincoln is still a who’s who of respected character vets from both film and TV, employing more or less half the SAG. But it’s a clusterfuck.

  73. danemychal

    Everyone: an actor is not listed as part of the ensemble unless they have their own title credit (not shared with anyonee else). Your name can even show up in the opening credits where all the other stars’ names are, but if your name is on-screen at the same time as a couple other actors, you are not eligible for a SAG Ensemble award. And title credits are negotiated things in Hollywood. They mean more money. Gloria Reuben, Julia Stiles, etc. would have had to be paid a higher scale. They needed better agents to work that out for them.

  74. I hope Chastain loses because her ZDT performance is one note. It’s crazy but she shows more range in Mama.

  75. That is a stupid rule. Has that always been the case?

    Gloria Reuben deserves that SAG award! ;)

    I must have a faulty memory, because I remember A LOT of actors going up onstage to accept for Inglourious Basterds and Gosford Park.

  76. I was going to reply to Matt and remark that both Argo (the other strong contender) and Zero Dark Thirty are far better reviewed than SLP on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic (96%, 8.4 and 86 for Argo, 93%, 8.7 and 95 for Zero Dark Thirty), so really if you’re going by those standards SLP is actually in 4th place, but then I realized he’s just a troll.

  77. Antoinette

    Thank you, danemychal.

    That is a really stupid rule and I wonder how many actors know that going into a film. Because if you’re part of an ensemble wouldn’t it make sense that there would be more names on screen at the same time? Pfft.

  78. Depending on how the guilds go this weekend, the temporary title for your next State of the Race, Sasha, should be: “The State of the Race–Because Fuck the Stats”

    :)

  79. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t find SLP to be a real actor’s showcase. It’s a lot of tell and not show acting. The performances are certainly solid and elevate it a bit over the so-so material. Sasha isn’t making me more of a hater. I saw it late November with only the reaction of Toronto to go on. I was scratching my head to it’s acclaim and I still am now.

    I thought “Oh yea that was solid I guess. They kind of dropped the ball in the last half and it feels more like movieland world, but whatever. Eh yea it’s fine. Charming, but uh…this is an Oscar player? It doesn’t need to be Lincoln heavy, but wow I wasn’t expecting something so…contrived and cliched. Why is this at my local art house theater. They could open this baby in wide release. It has movie stars so that will attract your average moviegoer. It has a tidy ending with no ambiguity. It covers all targets. This is fine comfort fluff. ”

    Lawrence is good, but she has a career way ahead of her. So does Chastian, but this to me is an ideal role for Chastian to win for. She lacks anything superfluous and that might bother people that we don’t get to know much about her personal life. For me it wasn’t necessary. It’s better than Lawrence laying everything out through monologue. Good thing she did wonders with that character.

  80. SLP was a decent film. Nothing more than that. Lawrence’s performance was good but I will spit nails if she beats out Chastain. Not even close as to who gave a better performance. ZDT was a great film. Chastain was the heart & soul of that film & gave a great performance.

  81. Astarisborn

    Silver linings wil win SAG
    Lincoln will win PGA
    Ang Lee ‘s Pi will win DGA
    Where do we go from here? Will the BAFTA wins cement the winners?

  82. Sorry but I have to disagree about your Best Actress choice. Jessica Chastain is walking away with all of it: SAG and Oscar.

  83. The least you can do is change your avatars so we can see some hot men.

    Way ahead of you rufus ;)

    You’re defs winning on that front though. Mmm Taylor Kinney…

  84. On Argo’s ensemble:
    —————-
    I also feel like Lincoln or SLP (or even Les Miserables) has a better shot – on paper – because of the nature of the ensemble.
    —————-
    Argo has Affleck (serviceable), Arkin (serviceable, funny), Goodman/Cranston (good), and then a host of minor actors who mostly sit in a room looking worried or running through an airport.
    —————-
    I say all of this having enjoyed Argo as an entertainment.
    —————
    But I think that many other ensembles did a lot better than that this year.

  85. @paddy
    hmm who’s yours? way too hot, can’t think straight, like literally!

  86. Basically, the way it looks right now is:

    1) Les Mis
    2) Lincoln
    3) Silver Linings Playbook
    4) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    5) Argo (and this is only on the bottom because I have no idea what it’s doing in this category in the first place)

    Les Mis and Lincoln are duking it out for the win, with a slight lean towards Les Mis because of its true ensemble nature, while SLP is sitting off to the side in hopes of the vote being split enough for it to eek out the win (that’s pretty much the only way SLP would win). Meanwhile, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Argo are chilling out and having their “We-Already-Know-We’re-Not-Going-To-Win” party.

  87. Oh, just some handsome bastard called Paddy Mulholland, that’s all!

    You better be taking the piss, Christophe. I don’t know what to do with sincere compliments, least of all when they’re unwarranted.

  88. daveinprogress

    Hawkeye – that gave me a chuckle, I was thinking about the Best Exotic Marigold table at SAG awards – who will be there as they do the requisite crane shot over the table after the clip for the movie? Dev Patel by himself at a table for one…. Dench and Smith unlikely to be there. Tom Wilkinson maybe. Celia Imrie or Bill Nighy? Tumbleweeds around their table.

  89. don’t worry paddy I am NEVER sincere! that’s why I often get into scrapes here bc people don’t get I’m just joking and I’m also very bad at it obviously. but thx for teaching me a new and very refined expression, now I’m being sincere, kinda.

  90. Bryce Forestieri

    @rufussondheim

    I give you an A+ and a 5/5 for your avatar picture!!

    Goddamn that guy is a shining beacon of male hotness…best shot in all of ZERO DARK THIRTY. Need to find out his name <3<3<3

  91. Moses Valenzuela

    Agreed. Silver Linings Playbook will win Ensemble. Cooper, Weaver, DeNiro and Lawrence we all excellent! Even Anupam Kher was incredible!

  92. Bryce Forestieri

    I haven’t supported the gay movie in the race since BLACK SWAN

    Is LES MIZ hiding somewhere ready to pounce quite a few major wins?

  93. danemychal

    Zach – There’s no rule about who can go up onstage at an award show to accept an award; there never is (Sacheen Littlefeather, anyone?)

    So you will often see a larger group than just the people whose names are engraved on the awards go up to accept. However, they might not be getting guaranteed seat reservations at SAG, so no idea where they’d sit!

  94. Bryce Forestieri

    Predictions

    Best Ensemble: LINCOLN
    Best Actor: LINCOLN
    Best Actress: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
    Best Supporting Actor: LINCOLN
    Best Supporting Actress: LES MIZ

  95. should I use gravatar to have my own pic? I just went there and realized you have to register and create a password… to hell with this, I’m bored already, I wanted to put a pic of young Roman Polanski so everyone knows I’m a genius pervert, but I guess my words are enough.

  96. It’s Taylor Kinney, Bryce.

  97. and he’s dating Lady Gaga already so you’ll have to find yourself another boy toy…

  98. Bryce Forestieri

    @Paddy

    There you go!

    Is it too late for him to replace Shia LeBeouf in NYMPHOMANIAC?

  99. huh shia labouffe… even his name is disgusting!

  100. I don’t think Jessica Chastain is more deserving than any of the other actresses this year. Especially not for playing a very one-dimensional character in ZD30 whose only emotions are either angry or determined. People who want her to win haven’t even seen the film, just looking for the anti-Lawrence to support. She was so much better in her 2011 roles, so much better. I think it’s the goodwill from 2011 that got her the SAG nomination while ZD30 was shut out of the ensemble award. However I don’t think Jennifer Lawrence is anymore popular than Chastain in SAG. Both actresses seem to be generally loved.
    ————————–
    Les Miz fans still don’t get it that outside of Anne Hathaway and Hugh Jackman that film is not respected as an actor’s show piece. Sasha is 100% correct in that the lack of noms for the other supporting actors like Barks and Redmayne means this is dead in the water for ensemble. Lincoln and SLP are the two ensemble film frontrunners. It’s anyone’s guess who will win.
    ————-
    I’m not as big a fan of Lincoln as everyone on this website is but I think Daniel Day-Lewis fully deserves to win. For supporting actor I say PSH buy since their wasn’t much love shown for The Master then I’m sure Tommy Lee Jones has this in the bag. Anne Hathaway already has her name curved on the Oscar statue so that race was done a long time ago.

  101. @danemychal, OK…thanks for that. But I still don’t see why George Clooney would go up and accept for Argo, unless it’s already confirmed. It would just be tacky and a bit much. I mean, Harvey Weinstein doesn’t play that game, not that it would work for him.

    And if you check the Wikipedia page for the SAG Ensemble category, there are a lot of actors listed for Inglourious and Gosford Park. You’re saying they didn’t necessarily all win engraved plaques, or did the rules change? I don’t think they all had individual lines of billing in the films, that’s for sure.

  102. andrevellozo

    since Riva isn’t nominated here, I’d love to see Naomi Watts win… but would have no problem with Chastain or Lawrence winning either. however, if Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t win, THEN I will be miffed.

  103. Jennifer Lawrence will take SAG and then the Oscars. Truly the best performance among the five nominees for the Oscars.

  104. I don’t understand what you guys saw in Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty. I thought she was rather boring and her performance didn’t ~knock me out~ like Jennifer Lawrence’s or even Naommi Watts’ did. Chastain is being overhyped and overrated. I thought she did better in The Help. Really hope she doesn’t win because she doesn’t deserve it for Zero Dark Thirty. Maybe for something else in the future.

  105. Vincenzo

    Sasha, will you give a SAG live streaming from your site as you did for the GG?

  106. rufussondheim

    I’ve loved this shot of Taylor Kinney from the moment I saw it. My primary goal in seeing ZDT was just to see more of him, luckily the movie was fanfuckingtastic!

    So, after the movie, I went through the credits to figure out what his name was and once I found out, I clicked to see what else he was on and discovered he is on Chicago Fire. Conveniently, this August, I bought a new TiVo that can record 4 channels and store like 450 Hours of HD Programming. Since I had to fill that up, I put on Chicago Fire, I knew at least one of these firefighters had to be hot (pun intended!)

    So I’m trudging my way through that horrible and disgusting TV that makes SLP look decent. Oh, wait, I lied, nothing can make SLP look decent (what a fucking piece of garbage that movie is!) But anyway, I’m now addicted to Chicago Fire because of the gorgeousness of Taylor Kinney.

    But what’s even more exciting is the presence of Jesse Spencer. He might just be the world’s most perfect human. I love him. I love him. I love him. But only on my own.

    Beware, though, I wouldn’t watch Chicago Fire, it’s like dating a hot guy trying to get you addicted to heroin just so you can burn through your grandmother’s trust fund with him. Unless you need a hook for your eventual autobiography, it’s not worth your time.

  107. “Les Miz fans still don’t get it that outside of Anne Hathaway and Hugh Jackman that film is not respected as an actor’s show piece.”

    With it having won Best Ensemble from the National Board of Review, the Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association, and the Satellite Awards, and having received such nominations for groups like SAG, BFCA, and others, I think it’s pretty clear that this is untrue.

    Unfortunately, most groups don’t give out an Ensemble award, but of all the ones I recall, Les Mis was right there among the nominees, and as I mentioned, it won some pretty big ones.

  108. The Dude

    Seems to me that the biggest threat to DDL in the SAG is not Cooper or Jackman, but Denzel, who never won here.

    The biggest threat to Lawrence here isn’t Chastain, but Watts, although that isn’t the case with the Oscars.

    Also, I think De Niro will win this as a career achievement award, but won’t take the Oscars. And if PSH manages a surprise win, then the Oscar is his.

  109. rufussondheim

    I laugh at the people who don’t think Jessica Chastain deserves to win.

  110. “You can’t go to Metacritic either, boys. Not unless you want to see Zero Dark Thirty’s 95.
    So suck it.”

    That tone, with that new avatar, rufus……I think I just had a hot flash.

    I’m in the camp that sees no momentum coming from the SAG ensemble this year. I think they’ll go with Lincoln, maybe Argo – here choices defy logic other than the statusand reputations of the individuals in the cast. If they go for SLP? Nah, not gonna happen.

    DDL, Chastain, DeNiro and, yes, Sally would be safe predictions for the SAG individual honors.

  111. Oh, no, Anne is taking it. That is a certainty. Les Mis winning Ensemble is not impossible, but I doubt enough people want to reward it in any other category. But Hugh Jackman is probably the runner up to DDL. It isn’t Denzel’s year.

  112. Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Lee Jones, Hathaway and “Argo” for ensemble – this is my prediction. And “SkyFall” for stunts. :)

  113. Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones shouldn’t even be nominated.

    CAST:
    Silver Linings Playbook
    UPSET: Les Miserables

    ACTOR:
    Daniel Day Lewis
    UPSET: Hugh Jackman. Had Phoenix been nominated, I’d say he’d be the upset. but alas…

    ACTRESS:
    Jennifer Lawrence
    ALT: Jessica Chastain
    UPSET: Naomi Watts

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Have no clue. Hoffman should win though.

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    Anne Hathaway. No doubt.
    Sally Field’s performance was dreadful.

  114. daveinprogress

    My predix:

    Ensemble: Lincoln (or SLP)
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (or Hugh)
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (or Jessica)
    Supp A: Philip Seymour Hoffman (or Tommy)
    Supp Atrs: Anne Hathaway (or Sally)

  115. I find it funny that some people think Hugh Jackman or Bradley Cooper has a chance against DDL. Daniel has this in the bag. The only actor that pose a challenge here for DDL is Denzel Washington. Denzel has a lot of actor support for his role as an alcoholic pilot, and has never won a SAG award in his career. So, they might want to give him one here. But, I still think no one can touch DDL.

  116. NGNG – Javier Bardem wins for Skyfall. :D

    Otherwise – Lawrence, Day-Lewis, Hathaway, SLP.

  117. No one’s beating DDL, but if anyone else has a ghost of a prayer, it’s not Denzel for that role. They’re not feeling that desperate. The idea of an upset is that it’s someone who’s popular and deserving and giving the kind of performance that can’t simply be compared unfavorably to the frontrunner. With that in mind, it would be Hugh Jackman for the upset. How many Oscar ceremonies has DDL hosted? But seriously, Bradley Cooper has a better chance than Denzel this year.

  118. Danemychal

    Zach, I don’t think Clooney would (and definitely shouldn’t) go up onstage with the Argo cast if it wins Ensemble. I think Sasha just misspoke (or mistyped) when she wrote that.

  119. “Sally Field’s performance was dreadful.”

    This is the most accurate thing I’ve ever read in this site!

    I can’t believe people are really rooting for Sally, her performance was downright bad.

  120. Bob Burns

    I never saw Fantine in Hathaway’s performance and never saw anybody but Jones in his portrayal of Thaddeus Stevens.

  121. Byron gray

    Please excuse me because my question is not on subject. Does any one know if the voting privilege or membership of the actor who railed against Zero Dark Thirty in public has been revoked? It is my understanding that, according to academy bylaws, any attempt by a member to sway votes by denigrating a nominee is subject to such a penalty.

  122. rufussondheim

    I know this is wildly off-topic, but I just watched Liberal Arts and why no one is discussing how great this movie is silmultaneously perplexing and understandable. First off, it’s a movie designed for people who read. They have whole conversations on Infinite Jest and don’t specify they are doing so! But I loved nearly every minute of it and it’s instantly lodged at #5 for the year.

    How I wish others would discover this movie!

  123. richard crawford

    strange year. I will wait for sofia coppola to open Cannes.

    Argo.suspencefulbutbestpicture. no way. skipped lincoln and Les miz for video. I vote for Phoenix. J Phoenix. So far…I have been in Africa for 2 months. have not seen many films. Rust and Bone was good, but photo shopped. MC was fine. however, Julie Christie should have won against her last time. Oscars are NEVER about the right actors winning. So seldom happens. sitting on Air France…a tad swacked, I though on the road was slightly fun. Beasts of the so. wild terrible, except she has a lovely face. weird movie year…have not seen Silver linings…but want to. I live in the country with Mother Nature. Hooray. Hi ryan, hope you are fine…I get a kick how not seriously this site takes movies…Now it is all hoop la…oh well, can change the natives. her/haw…sasha, yours is still the first site I turn to…all best, all best…Ryan…I could tell you some big news , but you don’t want to hear it…or do you…of course it has to do with your Yob, as Charo would say. richard crawford

  124. marlonbrando020

    “Matt, anyone who looks at Rotten Tomatoes to find good reviews or any sort of fair way to look at critical acclaim is indeed someone in search of a silver lining. Try Metacritic. 81 for SLP and 86 for Lincoln.”

    Of course you go on MC. Just searching for the silver lining. Any silver lining.

  125. Lawrence will win the SAG award and she should win the SAG award. Just a better and more skilled performance in a more emotionally varied role. Plus Lawrence had a prior Oscar nomination, so she is not exactly in the same boat as a first time SAG nominee. By 21 she’s already pulled off roles as varied a Winter’s Bone and SLP. But again her age is the X-factor. Too many x-factors in acting awards.

  126. SAG Actor

    I voted already, and here’s how:

    Ensemble: Lincoln
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
    Actress: Jessica Chastain
    S. Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    S. Actress: Anne Hathaway

  127. Violaclaw

    I know people hate the very idea of Jennifer Lawrence winning anything since she’s only 22 but Jessica Chastain wasn’t that great in Zero Dark Thirty. It’s all hype and buzz that’s all. Watch the film before deciding whether she deserves the best actress award over Lawrence, Watts, and Riva. The truth is, people just want to reward Chastain for a great year she had in 2011 with 7 movies and her performance in The Help which was miles better than her performance in Zero Dark Thirty and because they don’t want Lawrence winning anything. If Chastain does win best actress for such a mechanical, dull, and plain performance, then I will loose all faith. She was a mere prop in the film. She did nothing but sit in an office and look worried and cry at times. The most exciting scenes in ZDT were the hunt, interrogation, and car chasing scenes which Chastain wasn’t even in.

  128. Warning: Zero Dark Thirty allegedly also employed half of SAG and only got a single nom.

  129. @Violaclaw-A lot of people don’t want a 22 year old to win. Lawrence is a more naturally talented actress but damn it she’s 22 and the lead in the Hunger Games. So screw her.

  130. comedywontwin

    I just don’t get it, why people think that JLaw has a chance for best actress race…Academy don’t like to crown actresses for a light comedy supporting role. It has to be drama, actress carries the movie, and she is the center of the story. Chastain got this one and if there is any other competition, it would be Naomi Watts adds to that she’s due for a recognition. I’m very confident that they will honor zero dark thirty in this category. JLaw’s role is really light and impossible she will win. This is a weak category for best actress….I only give credit to Chastain and Watts, the rest are rubbish even Riva, her role was not that complex, and I thought it is overrated.

    As for best picture it’s very clear between Lincoln and Argo, nothing else….Also I’m confident that Argo will take best picture, and yes without a director nod….Argo has too much support from the academy, and it also make up for Zero dark thirty backlash.

  131. Lawrence’s performance is riveting in SLP.

  132. comedywontwin

    Vince Smetana, I agree with you that Critics got it right this year as Zero Dark Thirty is the best movie of the year…Art, reality, recent events, contained hot messages, how CIA operates sometimes with bull shit, plus entertainment…this movie got it all.
    I also agree that Lincoln is the most boring overrated movie of the year….just becuase it’s about American history, people go nuts for it….all scenes were shot indoors, no creativity at all, best cinematography my ass.

  133. comedywontwin

    it’s so true that someone actually mentioned that JLaw is only 22, little brat and what’s under her belt is “the hunger games” which is child movie, I recommended that movie for my 7 years old nephew, now tell me the academy would reward the hunger games star for most prestigeous award of the night, best actress….there is no way.

  134. Danemychal

    Sally Field and Stephen Colbert are an absolute riot together. Sasha should find and post the clip from her segment on Colbert Report tonight. You can really see why “they like her, they really like her” (although she claims to not get many invites to parties)!

  135. BrandStrategyGuru

    Best Ensemble: Lincoln
    Best Actor: Daniel Dey Lewis
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

  136. The Japanese Viewer

    Just finished predicting online (here/AD).

    I’d like to share what I’ve predicted:

    Daniel Day-Lewis
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Tommy Lee Jones
    Anne Hathaway

    Ensemble: Argo

    Note: Haven’t seen The Sessions, Flight, Hitchcock, The Paperboy, Quartet yet; not planning to see The Impossible.

  137. The only Oscar Chastain should win is for Best Set Design.

  138. Houstonrufus

    Taylor Kinney is on Chicago Fire. I totally admit to watching the show occasionally just to bask in his scorching male beauty. The show is crap, but I’m only human.

    As for SAG, I feel like Argo will win ensemble. This comparison will seem awkward, because Argo is such a better film, but its demographic appeal among the voters reminds of Crash. Ensemble piece with actors, including some vets, about or sort of about LA. I know Argo is set for the most part in Iran, but make no mistake, it’s also set in Hollywood and the voters love that crap. I think that is why Argo is going to march thru the season as the winner. Fortunately, Argo is actually a really good film.

    My favorite is Lincoln. But there seems to be such an aversion to award the movie with anything other than Best Actor. It’s a shame really. But the popular kids are going to win this year I’m pretty sure.

  139. Hmmmm….this is another one of those great Awardsdaily mind-fuck threads. I started out very sure that Jennifer Lawrence was winning…but by the end you all made me reconside ~ wait for it ~ Naomi Watts!

    She is well liked, a veteran of Hollywood wars and years put it…Jessica Chastain is thought of as a “new york actress” and Jennifer Lawrence as a Hollywood star…which she IS…

    Wouldn’t that be the mind-fuck of all this? That JLaw and Chastain split the vote and Naomi Wins!

    And Harvey will have a heart attack!

    And this thread also made me re-think Best Ensemble. I ended up thinking “Les Miz” may actually have a chance!

    And Harvey will have a heart attack!

    The only award I can say for sure that TWC will win is DeNiro in Supporting for “Silver Linings”…since they’ve never awarded him.

    And Anne Hathaway of course for BSA for “LM”

  140. The main reason I think Les Mis is going to take Ensemble is because it’s the exact kind of movie that SAG loves to award. Looking back on the last few winners, we have films like “The Help” (strong performances from Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer on a great foundation of Jessica Chastain, Allison Janney, Emma Stone, and more). “Inglourious Basterds” (strong performances from Christoph Waltz and Melanie Laurent with great support from Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Mike Myers, and more). Even going back to “Slumdog Millionaire,” we find a pretty good lead performance from Dev Patel and a decent supporting cast (though I still say “Doubt” should have easily won that year, which is a film that falls into the second category I talk about later on).

    This is exactly the kind of film Les Mis is. It’s got fantastic performances from Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway with a great supporting foundation of Russell Crowe, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, Sacha Baron Cohen, Samantha Barks, and more.

    I can’t discount Lincoln though, which is why I have it ready to pounce in second place. It’s basically the “The King’s Speech” of this year (You’ll recall that TKS won Best Ensemble two years ago). It’s got a trio of brilliant performances (Day-Lewis, Field, and Jones) with a couple of really good performances in supporting roles (Strathairn and Spader). “The King’s Speech” had Firth, Rush, and Carter as the brilliant leads with a couple of really good performances in supporting roles (Pearce and Gambon). Basically, they’re films with more great performances at the top with smaller supporting bases.

    Silver Lining Playbook, as I’ve said before, is mainly depending on the strength of Cooper’s and Lawrence’s performances for the win. It doesn’t have much of a strong base to go on with just Weaver’s and De Niro’s forgettable performances. Again, I’d be very surprised if this won. It would be the weakest choice they’ve made in the last few years.

    Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is indeed an ensemble film and it has some great performances, but it just doesn’t have the awards oomph to win. Simple as that.

    Argo, as I’ve also said before, isn’t much of an ensemble film, nor does it have any performances that stand out from the rest. It doesn’t fit in either category, making it a very odd inclusion in the Ensemble category, and also giving it pretty much no chance of winning.

  141. PREDICTION
    Best Ensemble – Lincoln (runner-up : Silver Linings Playbook)
    Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis (VERY distant runner-up : Hugh Jackman)
    Best Actress – Naomi Watts (VERY close runner-up : Jennifer Lawrence)
    Best Supporting Actress – Sally Field (I know, I know…Hathaway)
    Best Supporting Actor – Robert De Niro (runner-up : Tommy Lee Jones)

    NGNG
    Best Ensemble – Les Misérables (the one big award it would actually deserve)
    Best Actor – Hugh Jackman (in any other year he could have been the frontrunner)
    Best Supporting Actress – Sally Field (I feel very strongly about her)

    I would love to see Jessica Chastain take the Oscar and/or the Bafta, but I don’t think she will come close to the SAG. Her turn is just not the type actors tend to go for (=NOT flashy) and they clearly weren’t into Zero Dark Thirty. I predicted Naomi Watts and sure, they didn’t nominate her film in other categories, either BUT she has very strong and high-profile peer-support and I think that gives her a fighting chance against SAG-frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence (they LOVED Silver Linings Playbook)…and I’m sticking to my theory that Emmanuelle Riva will win the Bafta AND the Oscar.

  142. christiannnw

    *Le sigh* I’ve got to admit, I’m feeling the heat for Silver Linings more than any other film. Even at the art school I attend, I keep talking to peers and professors who just LOVE this movie, a flabbergasting phenomenon considering the highfalutin tastes such institutions are perceived to hold. Personally, I think it’s a textureless, shallow piffle of a film, one that goes down like a wine containing less than 10% alcohol per volume.

    It’s a tad bit depressing to realize a film like Sliver Linings can potentially win what should be a prestigious artistic honor. Invoke the likes of “Slumdog Millionaire”, “The English Patient”, “The King’s Speech”, or “The Artist” as much as you like, but at least those films had an exceptional level of CRAFT evident in them, despite whether or not the final result was entirely successful. I really don’t get what’s worth praising in Silver Linings despite a duo of fine performances from Jennifer Lawrence and Jacki Weaver; all of the other components of the film are either shrill and obnoxious (Cooper and DeNiro, sloppy editing and unnecessarily bizarre camera work) or just plain bland. Taken at face value, it’s a nice little trifle that has absolutely nothing to say about anything whatsoever, but in a film filled with well-made, thought-provoking, beautifully moving films (“Zero Dark Thirty”, “Lincoln”, and “Amour”, just to pick from the nominees), Silver Linings, quite frankly, doesn’t even deserve a nomination. Rant over!

    I would be fine with an “Argo” ensemble win, despite my problems with the films. I echo Ryan’s sentiment about it from the last podcast (that it’s actually a goof example of a true “ensemble”, with multiple actors playing off of each other in different scenes), but if this were a just world “Lincoln” would take this in a walk, what with so many actors (Day-Lewis, Field, Lee-Jones, Strathairn, Spader, Hawkes, ADAM DRIVER! etc.) all being given ample opportunity to leave impressions upon the viewer. But since “Argo” seems to be the flavor of the past two weeks, I’m going with that.

    Ensemble: “Argo”
    Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook) *because if the film ain’t winning Ensemble, it’s gotta win something.

  143. Nothing is a certainty until it happens. Last year everyone seemed pretty hellbent certain that Viola Davis was going to win the Oscar.

  144. On what planet was Jessica Chastain’s performance more complex than Jennifer Lawrence’s? Though Jen was in a romantic comedy, her performance was more dramatic and compelx than Jessica’s. Jen gave a lot more than the script asked. She made Silver Linings what it was and outshined the rest of the cast. That is what I call a performance. While Jessica was just a background in a great film directed by a masteful director. Please watch the films before commenting on performances.

  145. Years from now, people will not praise Les Miserables. And Anne’s performance will not stand the test of time. The movie will probably be remade and bettered. It’s really a disappointment. Evita had more memorable moments.

  146. Phoenix wasn’t nominated.
    It’s so so so ridiculous and stupid… there´s noting more to say about SAG this year!

  147. I hope Naomi Watts wins the SAG. She deserved that award more than Lawrence and Chastain.

  148. “Who should win? Jessica Chastain”???? – Definitely not. I simply cannot understand the love for Zero Dark Thirty. Absolutely nothing special about it, and even though Chastain’s performance was very good, it was like someone has already mentioned: a bit mechanical. Jennifer Lawrence has much more ability to show different emotions and does that in Silver Linings Playbook … it baffles me really how anyone can choose Chastain over Lawrence, or Watts for that matter.

  149. Maybe, JUST MAYBE, if the SAG wants to make history this year, then I suggest they hail either JOHN HAWKES, MARION COTILLARD, JAVIER BARDEM or NICOLE KIDMAN as winners, you know, just so they could have this “SAG winner not nominated for an Oscar” thing. Well, that’s just my idea.

  150. Robin Write

    Some funny comments on here. Like Jennifer Lawrence can’t win because the performance is too light. Silver Linings Playbook is not an all out comedy, and her character is like atom bomb, hardly anything light about it. And she does the role justice too.

    Jessica Chastain plays it completely straight, and she is given some ballsy dialogue which she delivers with that little voice of hers. Just when I think one of them has the edge, I start thinking about the other one.

    Lawrence is the sure bet for Silver Linings Playbook if it wants to keep the momentum towards the Oscars, and with Zero Dark Thirty on the back end of snubs after winning I don’t know how many Best Picture critic prizes, it may come down to just that, momentum.

  151. Well, Harvey does campaign hard. Everyone knows that.
    And funny enough, most times it works. Especially at Oscars.
    I do think SLP has a good shot at taking best ensemble. If Jennifer Lawrence wins best actress, she’d be the youngest winner in that category. But we’ll see.

    I wouldn’t be all surprised if Hugh Jackman takes best actor. He’s much beloved around actors and Les Miz could be his best shot in quite a time. Of course DDL is the favorite, but if there’s any surprise/upset, I think it’d be Jackman.

  152. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Lawrence is the sure bet for Silver Linings Playbook if it wants to keep the momentum towards the Oscars, and with Zero Dark Thirty on the back end of snubs after winning I don’t know how many Best Picture critic prizes, it may come down to just that, momentum.

    If Silver Linings wins both the PGA and the SAG ensemble that will give it enough momentum to win the Oscar for BP. It would be the worst Best Picture winner I can think of since I started my site in 1999. But I have to give up ever hoping the Oscars will change their spots. I should write the book, “the Weinstein Oscar Playbook – how to trick voters into thinking that shitty movie is an awards contender”

  153. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    On what planet was Jessica Chastain’s performance more complex than Jennifer Lawrence’s?
    Lololol

    I don’t even know how to answer that. I know that in 2012 people think that what Lawrence does (and I will agree that i was wowed by her in this movie, no denying it, but for me it’s on the level of Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman) is what great acting is all about but that’s only because our standards have been so dramatically lowered – ie, no great female parts anymore — that THAT passes for a great performance.

  154. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Dear christiannnw, completely agree on every score. And I have to admit, if Silver Linings does win I may rethink my life going forward. I might have to finally stop doing this website even because, really, if that what it all comes down to, if that is what artists are to strive for as Best Picture of the Year, what are we all doing here? To me it’s an okay movie – completely manipulative and predictable, sloppy and unbelievable. Despite how many people love it now they will be grossed by it years from now that it won in a year with so many exceptional works of art. But that’s what happens in a consensus vote — that is what the Oscar race is and why it might not be for me anymore. There are so many better ways I can think of to spend my life than investing an entire year with THAT as the outcome. So Silver Linings Crapbook might become the end to Awards Daily finally, after 14 years. Weird to think of it that way but better to go out on a note that confirms the terrible state of the awards race.

  155. Houstonrufus

    I echo the sentiments on SLP. I thought it was a perfectly passable movie. A B- movie at best. I’m puzzled by these comments saying it’s being so well received in certain quarters, particularly in the face of such worthy competition this year. If it wins, I’ll be terribly disappointed.

    I’m still having trouble seeing it happen, even with Weinstein being such a formidable swindler.

  156. Are u serious? Please don’t stop this site. My life would be empty and pointless. Oscar Watch has been my daily anti depressants for a decade. I can’t live without it.

  157. Scott (the other one)

    Les Miz will not win ensemble because it is too divisive. While a core group of people love the film, tons of people (a) hate musicals, or (b) like or love musicals but hate the overblown, derivative, plodding musical that Les Miz is whether as a stage show or a film (that’s me!), or (c) love Les Miz but feel that Tom Hooper did not do it justice. I don’t think there are enough people who LOVE Les Miz AND who LOVE this film of Les Miz to give it the win.

    Does anyone think Jennifer Lawrence’s chances are affected by the fact that her role was really a supporting one?

    I love Lawrence as a star and personality, but I was not particularly dazzled by her performance. And I enjoyed SLP well enough as a very Hollywood-ish romcom — essentially trash, but okay enough trash. But if I had seen it without any knowledge of the critical reaction, or the fact that it won the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival (where I live), I NEVER would have pegged it as an award magnet, or as anything but a run of the mill rom com. It amazes me that it has been singled out for the attention it has received.

  158. evelyn garver

    Dear Sasha, the opportunity to see and discuss films ilk LINCOLN, ZD30, AMOUR, [and for me also MOONRISE KINGDOM and FRANKENWEENIE] is inspiration enough to go on. I do know how you feel. The wins for DANCES WITH WOLVES over GOODFELLAS and BRAVEHEART over Ang Lee’s SENSE AND SENSIBILITY disgusted me and had me [temporarily] vowing never to watch the broadcast or follow the race again. [I've watched since I was 10, 50 years ago.] However, back I came like any addict who can’t seem to kick the habit. The Oscar race will remain what it has always been. Glorious, Ridiculous, Satisfying, Maddening, everything in its turn. It deserves a writer as fine as you to chronicle its progress and its outcome.

  159. Houstonrufus

    I love Lawrence and thought she was the best thing about SLP. She’s the spark that makes the whole thing interesting. But, in my opinion, the Best Actress of the year is Riva, not nominated for SAG. I love all the other ladies and their work, but comparing Riva’s performance with the others is like comparing DDL and Cooper. Just two different levels of achievement, in my humble opinion.

    When the oscar nominations first came out, I thought Riva had a good chance to win. But she’s no Jean Dujardin when it comes to campaigning. So I’m thinking Lawrence will win the oscar. She’s the girl of the moment and it just feels like her year. But if I had my choice, I’d give it Riva, Chastain or even Watts before Lawrence, even if I did love her in SLP.

  160. Chris138

    Chastain should win here. I wouldn’t be bothered at all if Emmanuelle Riva ends up with the Oscar, though.

  161. Sasha I really hope this is just you feeling down and not you actually saying your going to quit if the movie wins. Heres the thing, me and you were in complete agreement on the 2010 TSN Vs. TKS race. Me and you are in 100% disagreement this year. I want SLP to win BP more than any other movie this year. FOR ME it would be my favorite movie to win since The Departed. That being said as much as it pisses me off to hear you trash SLP and come down on it hard, (especially because I feel like it is WAYYYY better than the kings speech on a lot of levels) your stats, podcasts, writing and opinions are what I look forward to more than anyone’s when it comes to the Oscars. We may not agree on every category or every year for that matter but I am always interested in your thinking on the whole thing. For me the Oscars are great and (Im not counting this year yet bc we don’t know how it will turn out) for every The Kings Speech we get The Departed, For every Shakespeare in Love, we get Return of the King. I can never fully dismiss the Oscars for not picking my movie because they have so many times in the past. For the Oscars to have awarded Gladiator, Return of the King, Crash, and The Departed, I can take it when my personal pick is not awarded because there is always next year and even if its not this year that doesn’t mean they won’t pick your favorite next year.

  162. rufussondheim

    OK, ACTION PLAN!

    What we need to do is to all hold bake sales until we raise enough money to buy our own television station (preferably ABC) so we can hold our own televised awards.

    So start cooking, and report back to me next week with how much money you have raised.

  163. Jason Travis

    Okay I just had another psychic dream, that revealed the SAG winners- here are the champions on Sunday- don’t read this unless you want to have the winners REVEALED to you in advance:

    SAG Ensemble: Silver Lingings Playbook
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
    Stunts: Skyfall

    I understand there are some shockers- Field especially, but get ready; her speech is very powerful. Silver Lingings Playbook loses all it’s acting awards but wins Ensemble.

    The only standing ovation will be for Sally Field.

  164. rufussondheim

    But my personal pick hasn’t been chosen since 1981 – How am I to get by!?!>!>

    Because I have it at the ready and I love it when people talk about me, I will not post all my choices for Best Pic since 1981.

    2012 – Zero Dark Thirty
    2011 – The Tree of Life
    2010 – Animal Kingdom
    2009 – (500) Days of Summer
    2008 – Wendy and Lucy
    2007 – Once
    2006 – Half Nelson
    2005 – Mysterious Skin/Capote (I can’t decide!)
    2004 – Latter Days (a fairly obscure gay movie with a ton of problems that I find to be utterly amazing anyway)
    2003 – All the Real Girls
    2002 – Talk to Her
    2001 – Lagaan/Dil Chahta Hai (another impossible choice)
    2000 – Chuck and Buck
    1999 – Magnolia
    1998 – Gods and Monsters
    1997 – In the Company of Men
    1996 – Beautiful Thing (Yes, another gay film that’s sadly forgotten)
    1995 – Priest (what do you know? another gay film!)
    1994 – Vanya on 42nd Street
    1993 – Joy Luck Club
    1992 – Raise the Red Lantern
    1991 – One False Move
    1990 – Longtime Companion
    1989 – Field of Dreams
    1988 – The Thin Blue Line
    1987 – Au Revoir Les Enfants
    1986 – Blue Velvet
    1985 – Blood Simple
    1984 – Birdy
    1983 – Tender Mercies
    1982 – Sophie’s Choice
    1981 – Chariots of Fire

    Only, like 5 (I think) got nominated for Best Pic – but I’m 2 for 2 in the last two years so I like to think I’m having an influence on the race after all of these years . Only a couple have even won major awards.

    But I agree, this is a great place to discuss movies.

    And, girl, you don’t get screeners mailed to you when you are a grocery clerk!

  165. Please don’t quit, but I don’t blame you. You’re right that Shitty Linings Playbook would easily be the worst Best Picture since you’ve started this site, and honestly one of the worst winners of all time, even if not enough people care think it now or care enough to consider the Academy’s storied, if debatable, past.

    Maybe, just maybe, SLP will go home empty-handed on Oscar night. If anybody could win without the SAG, maybe it is Riva with that kind of performance with this kind of lineup. It would help if she were American or British, but then she wouldn’t have been snubbed by SAG in the first place.

  166. Astarisborn

    Sasha, I love to read your articles, posts, and opinions. I am the first to start a petition to ban, no demand, that Silver Linings “Crapbook” does not win. I need you in my world of film. Anything but SLP please.

  167. Omg, just saw OD30, wow what a movie :) wish it would of gotten a sag ensemble nomination

  168. rufussondheim

    As much as I hate Silver Linings Playbook, I hated Gladiator far more. I hated that movie in the first ten minutes – which, given my state of mind at the time was a bit surprising.

    Russel Crowe was easily my favorite actor at the time coming off LA Confidential and The Insider, two great movies. And he was going to be all manly and buff! But the first ten minutes were terrible and I could never get into it. At this point in time, I can’t even be sure I finished it.

    My love affair ended the following year when I went to see A Beautiful Mind, which I thought was absolutely horrible as well.

    As terrible as SLP is, it doesn’t take itself as seriously as A Beautiful Mind.

    (I even dislike the last Lord of the Rings movie more than SLP)

    Oscar’s string of winners from 1994 to 2003 might be the worst ten year span in its history. There was a span in the late 50’s to early 60’s that was bad as well.

    Forrest Gump – awful
    Braveheart – awful
    English Patient – awful
    Titanic – enteraining but not worthy
    Shakespeare in Love – Great Choice!
    American Beauty – The second best movie in this list, but of the options for that year, ultimately a bad selection.
    Gladiator – awful
    A Beautiful Mind – awful
    Chicago – #3 on this list, but not a bad choice since its options were pretty limited that year.
    ROTK – awful

  169. I just don’t get it. I know it has someone as talented as Russell behind it and of course Weinstein, but you can dress it up all you want, it’s really nothing special. Plenty of films like this have come out over the years. Now we realize you just need some bigger prolific names behind it. “How can it not be great? It’s got David O Russell behind the camera.”

    Well Russell is getting a little more mainstream nowadays which would be fine if he occasionally deviated from what you thought was going to happen. “Oh god he is gonna get involved at the football game? Are we really going there? Yup his friends and family are involved. “Sigh” ah crap.” Had they actually won the dance competition and not just the bet I would have flipped off the screen. There is one point where Russell sort of subverts rom coms.

  170. Sasha is right about SLP. There have been plenty of movies like that, nothing special. Entertaining? Maybe. Art, however, is so much more than that. If you’re not capable of differentiating between what you like, what entertains you and what is really artistically praiseworthy, it’s nothing to be ashamed of. Others, though, can and some even have made a profession out of that. Just get over it.

  171. Art is subjective. There is no such thing as definitive art. For some, Silver Linings Playbook IS considered art. For some it is not. For some, Lincoln is considered Art, for others its not. Simple as that. To take anybody else’s opinion of what Art is personally (Even an academy of 6000 people) is a waste of time and energy. If Lincoln wins Best Picture this year, some will say right the movie won, some will say the wrong movie won. If Argo wins, same thing. if SLP wins…etc. Crash had just as much artistic merit as Brokeback that year. Some people find different things artistic about different movies. Im the guy who will never understand how The kings Speech beat The Social Network, hell how it beat ALL OF THE OTHER MOVIES NOMINATED THAT YEAR. How a movie that bland, predictable and just okay would be considered better. But at the end of the day you can’t say it has any less artistic merit simply because you didn’t find any. For whatever reason the people who get to vote did and its as simple as that. But their not wrong or right, its simply how they felt that year. This year will be the same. Whatever they felt was the best picture of the year will be what wins. No such thing as right or wrong, simply how they felt. For some it will be validation for others it will be unjust. Either way I love that the race this year is so wide open, its the first time in a long time that even with Stats backing up one movie, or precursors/critics awards backing up another movie, box office backing up another movie, that the race is so wide open and that even if the guilds go a certain way, it is a crazy ass wide open year. One of the best I can think of in a long time.

  172. @jack

    So? There are dozens of films like Lincoln. Generic biopic. Woopty doo. Now what?

  173. @ Mike:

    No doubt about how exciting this year is since the race is so open. My point is not that the SAG/PGA/whoever goes for the best artistic picture. I agree with you that comparing The Social Network to The King’s Speech is almost offensive, if we’re talking “art”. And yet the latter won. And it was a bitter disappointment for me, you and many others because as much as art is subjective, some movies are just better than others. Of course being the most critically acclaimed movie of the year doesn’t make you a frontrunner and, btw, when asked to predict you’re not asked to state what’s the best movie/performance out there let alone which one you enjoyed most. Nonetheless it’s a shame when using questionable criteria for assessing whortiness became the rule rather than the exception. That is why honestly you can’t say SLP is that good, even if it made your day.

  174. With movies like Amour, Holy Motors, Life of Pi and Jagten, Hollywood has gotten it’s ass kicked last year once again, not really moving in the right direction there.

  175. @praetor:

    Of course, I’m not talking about genres. SLP was ok, full stop. Many other movies were as ok, regardless of whether they were dramedies like this one or whatever, and they didn’t get all this hype.

  176. Some people seem to have an incredibly high opinion of themselves here. We will value everything on merit of “art” and they get to decide which is art and which isn’t. And only those that agree with them should make a profession out of it.

    What incredible arrogance.

  177. Come on guys, nobody’s questioning whether or not SLP is art or Lincoln or Life of Pi or Amour and so on. It would be senseless. When expressing your opinions, though, ask yourself if you’re being biased or not. In predicting as well in singling out the best piece/performance/etc.

  178. @ Jack:
    All I am saying is that there is no such thing as one movie definitively being better than another. Nobody can say that. All you can definitively say about a best picture winner is that A) It was a Motion Picture and B) it won Best Picture. Thats it. Everything else is opinion and subjective. A movie is everything at once( Its amazing, it sucks, its boring, is okay). It all just comes down to the people watching. Of the movies nominated there are 3 that I absolutely loved and think should win, they are SLP, LES MIS and LIFE OF PI. If any one of those 3 wins I will be massively happy. If Argo, ZD30 win I will be fine with that but not ecstatically happy. Django and Lincoln are the movies I want to win the least. Im not haters of either at all and found great things in both. But FOR ME, of the movies nominated and of the movies ive seen ( I haven’t seen Beasts and Amour) those are my preferences in terms of what will make me happy this year at the Oscars. The Oscar winner is the consensus favorite among the people who voted. Different movies connect with people for different reasons. Maybe Lincoln was that movie, maybe Life of Pi was, maybe Argo was, maybe Dhango was, maybe Silver Linings was,etc…Whatever they ultimately go for isn’t the wrong choice it was just simply their choice. I can honestly say SLP is art because, it is to me. It doesn’t have to be Art for you, for it to still be Art for me. I found Les Mis to be an artistic achievement, I found Life of Pi to be an artistic achievement, I found Looper to be an artistic achievement. 7 years ago I found Crash to be an Artistic Achievement. I found The Departed to be an artistic achievement, I found SLP to be an artistic achievement, I found The Social network to be an artistic achievement. All for different reasons based on specific things about those movies that only are about my own opinion and viewpoint. This is why, when a movie wins Best Picture that I really don’t think deserves to, I will be massively dissappointed and be annoyed but then right away be okay with it because all it means is “Thats what they voted for” not “They made the wrong choice”. Like I said, FOR ME: For every Kings Speech, there is The Departed, For every Shakespeare in love, there is Return of the King, etc… I can never discount or dismiss the Oscars if my personal pick doesn’t win simply bc my personal pick DID win so many times. Thats my very longwinded way of me basically saying I have a “theres always next year” attitude about the whole thing.

  179. Robin Write

    @ Sasha

    I am not sure at all Silver Linings Playbook would be the worst Best Picture winner since 1999.

    I liked A Beautiful Mind, but did not love it. Do people really think that was better than Moulin Rouge, Shrek, The Fellowship Of The Ring, Black Hawk Down, In The Bedroom, The Man Who Wasn’t There, Amelie, Gosford Park, Mulholland Drive?

  180. @Mike:

    Oh my, of course. If we’re all here writing down what we think, wish, expect it’s because we respect the race and like it being just like this, no matter who will win, no matter why. Whoever will win will not be a good/bad choice but just the one the voters made. It’s a bit naive though to deny the fact that, hadn’t it been for the Harvey Weinstein Company, SLP wouldn’t have got such a huge deal of attention or so-called ‘love’, Oscar-wise. Because that’s how the system works.

  181. rufussondheim

    “Work is what you do for other people, art is what you do for yourself.” – Stephen Sondheim.

  182. “But my personal pick hasn’t been chosen since 1981 – How am I to get by!?”

    Hey – only once, since 1962 (Lawrence), has my favorite of the year been crowned by Oscar. That was 1977 – Annie Hall.

    Your list defines your tastes, not AMPAS.

    Not to bore anybody, but here’s my list:
    1962 Lawrence of Arabia
    1963 8 1/2
    1964 Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
    1965 Darling
    1966 Battle of Algiers
    1967 Bonnie & Clyde
    1968 2001: A space odyssey
    1969 Z
    1970 Five Easy Pieces
    1971 A Clockwork Orange
    1972 Le Charm Discret de la Bourgeoisie
    1973 La Nuit Americaine
    1974 Chinatown
    1975 Nashville
    1976 Network
    1977 Annie Hall
    1978 Days of Heaven
    1979 Apocalypse Now
    1980 Raging Bull
    1981 Gallipoli
    1982 Sophie’s Choice
    1983 The Right Stuff
    1984 The Killing Fields
    1985 Brazil
    1986 Le déclin de l’empire américain
    1987 Maurice
    1988 Nuovo Cinema Paradiso
    1989 Field of Dreams
    1990 The Grifters
    1991 My Own Private Idaho
    1992 The Crying Game
    1993 Naked
    1994 Ed Wood
    1995 The Usual Suspects
    1996 Trainspotting
    1997 Boogie Nights
    1998 Gods and Monsters
    1999 The Talented Mr. Ripley
    2000 Billy Elliott
    2001 No Man’s Land
    2002 Cidade de Deus
    2003 Elephant
    2004 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
    2005 Brokeback Mountain
    2006 United 93
    2007 Diiving Bell & the Butterfly
    2008 Wendy and Lucy
    2009 Ajami
    2010 Carlos
    2011 Tree of Life
    2012 Life of Pi

    Not many Oscars in sight here.

  183. @Jack: True, but thats true of a lot of movies. NO DOUBT Weinstein Co played a part in attracting as much attention as it has right now. But I feel like there are only a handful of movies that won regardless of the campaign and could of won if there was Zero campaigns. Return of the King and Titanic are examples of movies that became to big to ignore and alot going for them going into the race and that campaigns weren’t going to really help, but they still had some of that regardless. But for me a campaign doesn’t take away or add to how I feel about the movie winning. Campaigning is part of the game for every movie every single year and it worked for other movies that I felt deserved to win that year, and it worked for movies that I thought didn’t deserve to win. The Hurt Locker won with a great campaign. That is considered a masterpiece and an obvious winner to most. But the campaign was still part of that oscar win, it doesnt take away how you or anybody can feel about the movie. Im not saying it can’t sway oscar voters, of course if can, id be a fool to say that Campaigning can’t win a movie oscars. A brilliant campaign may win SLP the oscar this year, it may not. I think a lot of Campaigning and Politics went into Both Shakespeare in Love and Crash’s BP wins. For me, in both years, I felt Shakespeare in Love should of lost to SPR and I was ECSTATIC that Crash won over Brokeback. But I can absolutely see how the campaign was crucial in both of those years and perhaps is what was the major factor for both wins. OR the voters simply loved those movies more. Either is possible and we will never know. I don’t want to seem like im making excuses for SLP possibly winning simply bc its my choice. Like almost every movie this year, since there is no clear cut frontrunner, it has a lot going for it and evidence to back up a win and it has alot going against it and evidence to back up a loss. The campaign is playing a MASSIVE part. But there is no way to know had weinstein co not have been involved and Scott Rudin or a different studio was behind it, if the public and voters would of had a different reaction to it. The movie is the same regardless of what studio/producer support it had. Weinsteins played a crucial role in TKS and The Artist winning but whose to say they wouldn’t of won anyway.

  184. rufussondheim

    Good list, Steve! – Some of your films I haven’t seen nor have I seen in awhile, but you don’t have a bad film in there!

    I shoud rewatch some of these – I recall loving The Killing Fields, but I’ve not seen it since the 80’s. I should also see Amadeus again. Birdy is a holdver from that time, but I look over that year and nothing really sticks out so I pick Birdy, which I loved to death back when I was in high school.

    And it’s nice to see Five Easy Pieces on there. I just recorded it off TMC (or some movie channel) and once I barrel through the remaining 2012 films on my Netflix Queue, I really want to watch it again.

  185. A lot of yours were in second or third on my list. Funny the ones we agree on (Sophie’s Choice, Wendy and Lucy, Field of Dreams, Tree of Life, Gods and Monsters). Not many would have them in the first spot, esp. W&L or G&M.

  186. Max DaVinci

    Lawrence will win best actress, which is fine because she did great. However, I still think Chastain deserves it more. Yes, the character doesn’t have emotional depth like Lawrence’s but let’s be real, Chastain had the harder job. She had to carry a film with an actual LEAD role, she had to make us believe she wanted it and did it better than Claire Danes (in Homeland), and the last scene alone just seals the deal that she deserves the SAG and the Oscar.

    PS. Whoever says Sally Field was horrible is just stupid. She did great and I hope she wins.

  187. Robin Write

    @ Mike

    Return of the King won for the trilogy didn’t it. And Titanic was the movie that cost a trillion dollars then made a gazillion dollars back. And I agree that campaigning is part of a game, and often means not about actual opinion at all. Which is sad.

    I could well be wrong but I am not sure The Hurt Locker had such a great campaign, other than that the director / visionary was Kathryn Bigelow, a woman I might add – and history to be made. That movie was floating around for months and months though, and was actually very well received and well liked by critics. An actual quality movie rather than a sci-fi effects feast perhaps. Plus there was that versus battle between former husband and wife – that publicized itself. I think The Hurt Locker made people feel real emotion rather than Avatar’s Wow! factor. A bit like Million Dollar Baby did {though that did creep up right at the end}. And although people will argue it is not as good as those two Best Picture winners, perhaps that’s where Silver Linings Playbook lies this year…

  188. I find it funny people are posting their comments and lists of films they think were the best of the year, and pompously saying “Since 1962, I only believe one movie was the right Best Picture winner- here are my other choices.” Bullshit. You’re just trying to be different and impress people with your vast knowledge of film, when you know good and well half the films that won best picture were deserving- stop trying to be “artsy and cool” by being against the norm, and just be honest. I espeically laughed out loud when some guy said 1972’s best film was Le Charm Discret de la Bourgeoisie – yeah okay you’re lying now. Obviously The Godfather WAS and STILL is the greatest film to win the top Oscar, and you list off some movie no one’s heard of just so you can get Cool Points for being different. Get over yourself!
    Below are my personal choices- you’ll see how I actually am honest about some of the best films, that actually won the Oscar:

    1972: The Godfather
    1973: The Sting
    1974: The Godfather, Part II
    1975: One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest
    1976: Network
    1977: Star Wars
    1978: The Deer Hunter
    1979: Apocalypse Now
    1980: The Shining
    1981: Raiders of the Lost Ark
    1982: E.T. (nothing else was as big as this film that year)
    1983: Terms of Endearment
    1984: Amadeus
    1985: The Color Purple
    1986: Aliens
    1987: Fatal Attraction
    1988: Who Framed Roger Rabbit
    1989: Driving Miss Daiy
    1990: Goodfellas
    1991: Thelma & Louise
    1992: Malcom X
    1993: Schindler’s List
    1994: Forrest Gump
    1995: Braveheart
    1996: Fargo
    1997: Titanic
    1998: Saving Private Ryan
    1999: The Sixth Sense
    2000: Gladiator
    2001: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
    2002: The Pianist
    2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    2004: Million Dollar Baby
    2005: Brokeback Mountain
    2006: The Departed
    2007: There Will Be Blood
    2008: Slumdog Millionaire
    2009: Up
    2010: The King’s Speech (yep I said it)
    2011: Hugo
    2012: Lincoln

  189. It is truly sad that so many of you find SLP to be undeserving of the recognition that it is receiving. It is deserving; it is beautifully written and acted. In the meantime, Zero Dark Thirty, a film that perpetuates violence and bad acting, is elevated to award worthy status.

  190. comedywontwin

    Sasha, I don’t know why you think that SLP will win BP….the academy proved several years they are stupid….but in a year when we have 9 nominated pic’s and some are strong drama with a huge box office and critics support, I doubt they will chose rom-com SLP.
    I said it many times, it’s between Argo and Lincoln, (although I don’t like Argo)….but if Academy wants to shift GG pick, they will go for Lincoln, otherwise they will chose Argo and I’m confident that will go for Argo.

    I still believe that Zero Dark Thirty is the only movie this year has all element as best picture….I can see the hard work put there, and the writing with the editing both were on a high level not to mention the cast and the genius Bigelow. From the first scene, the movie screams oscar.

    I think SLP has zero chances in winning the big prize so does Jlaw with zero chances winning best actress.

  191. “It helps to have surprising nominations turn up to show how much the SAG loves a movie – Diane Kruger getting in for Inglourious Basterds, Tommy Lee Jones for No Country for Old Men, Joe Fiennes for Shakespeare in Love, Don Cheadle for Crash, and Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire.”

    This made me think. What was the most suprisig nomination this year? Obviously nomination for best stunt ensemble for… “Les Miserables”! So maybe I’m wrong predicting “Argo” for best ensemble – and I should change it to Hooper’s movie?!

  192. ““Since 1962, I only believe one movie was the right Best Picture winner- here are my other choices.” Bullshit.”

    First, you got the quote wrong. What you wrote means something entirely different than what I said.

    Second, I never claimed that any previous winners were unworthy. I happen to like more than one film a year, some better than others.

    Last, it’s so easy to gear your list around nominees, past winners, or box office hits – do you ever watch anything else?

    You claim that Lincoln was your favorite this year, It doesn’t appear that you have the attention span to fully understand the film, but desperately want to be on the winning side.

    I gave up on trying to be cool and impress long ago, probably before you were even born. If you haven’t heard of any of the films I listed, do yourself a favor and find them somewhere – you might learn something.

    (The Sixth Sense? really?)

  193. daveinprogress

    Rufus, Birdy was my favorite from 1985. I love Alan Parker’s movies. I love how different they are to one another. I wish i could find something other than powerful to say about his movies, whether it is the intimacy of a ‘Shoot the Moon’ or the beauty of ‘Birdy’ or the sheer intensity of ‘Midnight Express’ or the sexy exuberance of ‘Fame’. I can only imagine what he would have done with Les Miz, had he actually directed it as first intended.

  194. Halle Berry won a SAG Award for “Introducing Dorothy Dandridge” before “Monster’s Ball”.

  195. christiannnw

    Sasha, thanks a bunch for the response. As disappointed as I would be if Silver Linings won Best Picture, I don’t think it would be enough of a reason for you to stop tracking the Oscars. As much as everyone on this site likes to criticize most of the Academy’s choices, especially in Best Picture, we tend to forget some of the downright awesome moves they’ve taken, such as rewarding Juliette Binoche, Roman Polanski, Dianne Wiest (twice!), Godfather’s I and II, “Annie Hall”, or “The Silence of the Lambs”, to name a few. Besides, any group that could actually nominate Jean Renoir’s “La Grande Illusion” for the Best Picture isn’t deserving of total derision.

    And lets not forget, the Academy has awarded it’s highest honor to “The Departed”, “No Country For Old Men”, and “The Hurt Locker” in just the past six years. While the embarrassments (of which Silver Linings would be part of should it win) seem to outweigh the achievements much of the time, I firmly believe it’s not enough reason to give up on something you’re clearly passionate about; if you could persevere through “The King’s Speech” and “The Artist”, you can withstand anything!

  196. I honestly thought I was alone in thinking SLP was just…okay at best. If it didn’t receive all the undeserved accolades then I feel like I would have enjoyed it more, I felt the same way about Juno a few years back. It currently has a 92 percent on RT which is sort of baffling to me since the writing gets really lazy towards the second half.

  197. Sasha, you seriously need to take a chill pill. Silver Linings Playbook was my favorite movie of the year. Just because you don’t like something doesn’t mean other people can’t think it’s good. We all have opinions. Grow up!

  198. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Sasha, you seriously need to take a chill pill. Just because you don’t like something doesn’t mean other people can’t think it’s good. We all have opinions.

    If you fear you’re in danger of losing the right to have your own opinion then it’s you who needs to take that chill pill.

  199. rufussondheim

    Not sure if anyone is still reading this, heck, I forgot about this thread!

    But, my golly, Jack Travis, do you love any film that wasn’t a BP nominee?

    ( I would pick Cabaret for 1972, if my knowledge of film were enough for me to go back that far with any confidance)

    But, yes, a lot of people have heard of The Discreet Charm of the Bourgoisee, even if we can’t spell it.

    The funny thing is, when I look over the lists I get a good sense of who both of you are. I see Steve is intelligent, thoughtful, willing to take some risks, and highly empathetic. You, Jack, I see someone that’s filled with self-doubt and needs a ton of reassurance. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

    Sorry, I just don’t see how someone could pick Driving Miss Daisy one year, then Goodfellas the next. I mean, seriously, that’s whacked.

  200. unlikely hood

    I somehow missed this thread til now. That picture of Jennifer Lawrence – whoa. Half of the women superheroes in comic books are drawn *exactly* like that.

  201. Doddi Jonsson

    These are some strong and harsh comments about SLP, Sasha. But this is your site and I’ve loved it. However, I think it would be silly and downright stupid to stop this site or posting if a certain film wins this year. And you have not said anything that justifies for example Zero Dark Thirty winning over SLP. Lincoln is a worthy winner, so are Argo and SLP. But to say SLP would be the worst Oscar winner since 1999 is ridiculous. A Beautiful Mind tops that list definitely! Million Dollar Baby! Even “The Artist” would be higher on that list than SLP. My choice this year would probably be Argo (but satisfied with Lincoln and SLP).

    And why should Chastain win Best Actress???? What emotions did she show/portray in ZDT??? What makes her acting better than Jennifer Lawrence’s?? It’s really amazing to see some of the comments about ZDT and SLP. And I repeat my question: WHAT ON EARTH makes Jessica’s acting better than Jennifer’s??? SLP is a people/acting/feelgood gem – ZDT is monotic chronological review of a boring hunt that the world was forced to follow through media, and now a very mediocre film (one of the most overrated ones in recent years) has so many people gasping in awe. I think some comments are coloured by that as well, and since Weinstein is behind SLP … it must mean the film is bad and everyone in it.

    But I will be excited to come back here and see the reactions if SLP wins. If the site stops because of that reason, I will laugh and continue my life with no sorrow. But if it will continue, I will continue loving it and enjoying reading it, using it, advertising it … etc.

  202. The Japanese Viewer

    MDB: Not overrated at all.

    [Proud owner of the film on cprght DVD format, I love Million Dollar Baby. In my opinion it deserves that year’s Oscar BP. (To be blunt, I slept at times over The Aviator in theater -- just a measure given.) To describe how wonderful it is in strategically lame terms, it’s quiet, beauteous, well-crafted, considerate, (as well as a la French-and-Japanese (personal neolgm)), etc. Not overrated at all.]

  203. Doddi Jonsson

    MDB: Overrated, yes.
    Falling asleep over Aviator (“at times”) says more about the person I think. Action wise there was much more going on in The Aviator (and Sideways, Finding Neverland and Ray for that matter) and to me it was an undeserved win for MDB.

    But since my post was mostly directed to the fact that Sasha called SLP the worst Oscar winner since 1999 (if that would happen), I used my personal examples of films that were less deserving than SLP would be. Of course there are people not agreeing with me and that’s what fun movie debates are all about ;-)

  204. I’m not sure how I feel about the extreme bias on this site. I guess I keep forgetting it kind of has to be an opinionated site. I really loved Silver Linings Playbook and I will never understand the hate for it. It’s certainly a better movie than Crash. Worst winner since 1999? I think that. I honestly preferred it to Lincoln, which I don’t understand the infatuation for. I thought Lawrence was phenomenal as well.

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