SAG No Guts, No Glory

What: The SAG Awards
When: 5pm Pacific Time
Live Streaming: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-live-2013-screen-actors-guild-awards/
R
ed Carpet Live: http://sagawards.tnt.tv

Welp, we had a big mouthful of Argo last night. Something tells me Argo might surprise tonight at the SAG too.  Therefore, my No Guts, No Glory pick is:

Ensemble: Argo

Check out the predictions over at Gold Derby, too.  

Ensemble
Silver Linings Playbook–Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores, Craig Kennedy
Lincoln–Ryan Adams
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln –Adams, Kennedy, Stone, Flores
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook–Stone, Kennedy
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty–Adams, Flores
Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook–Stone, Kennedy, Flores
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master–Adams
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables–Stone, Kennedy, Flores
Sally Field, Lincoln–Adams

 

90 Comments on this Post

  1. My NGNGs:

    Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, Skyfall (thus, possibly confirming a Waltz victory?).
    Stunt Ensemble: Les Misérables.

  2. My predictions are all the popular picks (including De Niro). However, I think Naomi Watts is going to take it.

  3. Actor – Jackman
    Actress – Lawrence
    S Actor DeNiro
    S Actress – Hathaway
    Ensemble – Les Miz (alt SLP)

  4. Lol remember Les Mis is up for Stunt Ensemble?

    Predictions: Day-Lewis, Lawrence, De Niro, Hathaway, SLP

    NGNG: Best Exotic wins Ensemble

  5. NGNG: Hugh Jackman wins Best Actor.

    P.S. If Argo wins SAG ensemble, the game is over. Best Picture Oscar a done deal. I think Silver Linings takes it.

  6. LES MIS for Best Ensemble

  7. Gage Creed

    Since SAG isn’t really famous for “surprise winners”, I’m following the consensus I’m reading here and picking SLP, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, DeNiro and Hathaway.

  8. Ooops…I meant I think Silver Linings takes SAG ensemble. I’m still mad Lincoln didn’t credit more actors—the acting shortlist is way too exclusive. There are actors who are not voting for Lincoln because the award won’t acknowledge the entire cast. No Gloria Reuben, John Hawkes, S. Epatha Merkerson even…poor poor move on part of Dreamworks.

  9. Tory Smith

    I’m think Les Mis will take home Best Ensemble. Silver Linings is a close second.

    Actor: Lewis (alt.Jackman)
    Actress: Chaistain (alt. Lawrence)
    Sup. Actress: Hathaway (alt. Fields)
    Sup. Actor: DeNiro (alt. Hoffman)*in terms of Oscar I’m still confused on who has the momentum at this point in Supporting Actor. A lot of critics and bloggers think that this is the most boring race in terms of acting, and I disagree. I think it’s totally great and I find all 4 nominees to exceptional and great in their perspective roles (excluding Arkin). But who probably should win the Oscar is Jones. He’s the only true supporting character in his respective film (besides DeNiro), and I feel politics may work on his side. But who knows, and isn’t that awesome! :-)

  10. Joe Clinton

    Ensemble – Silver Linings Playbook
    Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
    S. Actor – Robert De Niro
    S. Actress – Anne Hathaway

  11. ^ Same ! :)

  12. I just have this sneaking suspicion that “Argo” is taking ensemble.

  13. Ooops… Joe Clinton predictions = same thing!

  14. Agree. “Argo” takes ensemble.

  15. ***I want to emphasize that the SAG ensemble award NO LONGER means as much as it used to, since the Oscar Best Picture category was altered to be decided by PREFERENTIAL Ballot in 2010. Before that year, this award used to indicate where passionate support was among actors. It predicted, for example, the Shakespeare in Love win, the Crash win; and showed the enormous support for Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire. My recommendation: Just take the winner tonight with a grain of salt! Argo winning the PGA last night was HUGE. If Lincoln or Silver Linings wins, that shows support is there, yes, but very likely not enough to win on the preferential ballot. Then, once Affleck wins DGA, it is the Best Director race that will have the most suspense.

    ***So, since the change in 2010, I think the PGA Award has become the BEST INDICATOR of what film will win the Best Picture Oscar: what film all-around is the most-liked, and least divisive. PGA has never failed for THE NEW SYSTEM, and it is a stronger indicator THIS OUTLIER YEAR than perhaps any of the older statistics taken from DIFFERENT VOTING SET-UPS.

  16. AnthonyP

    I think SLP will get ensemble as a nod to its credit. That would only guarantee Argo wins BP.
    It’s not hard to figure out.

  17. My predictions:

    Ensemble: SLP
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (alt. Jessica Chastain)
    Sup. Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (alt. Robert DeNiro)
    Sup. Actress: Anne Hathaway

    My wishlist:

    Ensemble: SLP or Lincoln
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Naomi Watts
    Sup. Actor: Robert DeNiro
    Sup. Actress: Sally Field

  18. NGNG: Naomi for best actress
    I don’t think that at this point in the race, calling ‘Argo’ for best ensemble qualifies as NGNG…

  19. Bradley Cooper wins best Actor NGNG

  20. Prediction:
    Argo
    Arkin
    Hathaway
    Chastain
    Day Lewis

    NGN: Arkin

  21. If any of you refuse to predict Anne Hathaway to win tonight, Donald Sutherland has this to say.

  22. NGNG: Naomi Watts takes Best Actress

  23. daveinprogress

    Donald Sutherland clip is hilarious!
    Now There was a snub dejour of 1980 – Best Actor.
    Back to 2012

    My predix: Ensemble: SLP NGNG: Les Miz
    Actor: Daniel NGNG: Hugh
    Actress: Lawrence NGNG: Watts
    S. Actor: Hoffman NGNG: DeNiro
    S. Actss: Hathaway NGNG: The Dame!

  24. Bryce Forestieri

    Predictions

    Ensemble: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    S. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    S. Actress: I Dream a Dream

    NGNG: LINCOLN wins ensemble

  25. NGNG – Nicole Kidman wins Supporting Actress

    Should win: Lincoln, Day-Lewis, Chastain, DeNiro, Kidman & Bourne Legacy.

    Will win: Argo, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Jones, Hathaway, Les Mis.

  26. I guess NGNG would be Jackman or Watts. I don’t see them happening, though.
    Weird to see anyone predicting against Hathaway, though Field is richly deserving as well.
    Weirder yet to see no Tommy Lee Jones predix among the pundits. De Niro does make sense for SAG Ruby Dee-style, but I’ll go down with the ship. Do people really hate Jones? Did the Globe incident hurt him?

  27. christiannnw

    “Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement” is on TBS right now. Coincidence?

  28. Samuel Coffey

    NGNG = Alan Arkin beating DeNiro and Jones for Supporting Actor at SAG

    Other predictions
    Ensemble – Silver Linings Playbook
    Actor – DDL
    Actress – Lawrence
    Supp. Actor – Bobby DeNiro
    Supp. Actress – Hathaway

  29. Julie Andrews sings a song in that movie to Hathaway (and everyone) called “Your Crowning Glory” :) hehe

  30. Oh God, if we had deserving winner at least here.

  31. My predictions:
    Ensemble: SLP
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert DeNiro, Anne Hathaway

    My wish: Lincoln
    Daniel Day-Lewis, lead actress I don’t care so why not Jessica Chastain, Tommy Lee Jones, & Nicole Kidman (why not!)

  32. People, we might see thE greatest criminal of the season today – not giving the SAG to DDL.

  33. How in the hell is it a NGNG pick to choose the movie that just won the Golden Globe, the BFCA, AND the PGA to win Best Ensemble????

  34. As much as I look forward to a SLP sweep, I just don’t think there’s enough passion for De Niro for a win.
    Winners in supporting categories rarely win on the strength of their films or their other case members. Reminds me a bit of Geoffrey Rush and HBC in The King’s Speech actually. There’s a lot going for a film as a whole, but the roles don’t stand out.

  35. Michael Lewis

    Wonderful article, Sasha, simply wonderful. And although I haven’t seen it yet, I’m rooting for Argo.

  36. It would be criminal if Daniel Day-Lewis loses. It’s not likely, but looking back it will be one of the Academy’s most egregious results–I’m talking the Academy here. BUT for everyone who hasn’t caught on yet, they would begin to understand how these industry awards work. And how rare it is to see the best films and best work rewarded. YES the Oscar is hugely important to one’s career and reputation, but does it really mean all that much? Wouldn’t it be funny if Tommy Lee Jones became the only actor to win for a Spielberg film?

  37. The J Viewer

    I copied and pasted one of my recent comments made five days ago.

    “Just finished predicting online (here/AD).

    I’d like to share what I’ve predicted:

    Daniel Day-Lewis
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Tommy Lee Jones
    Anne Hathaway

    Ensemble: Argo

    Note: Haven’t seen The Sessions, Flight, Hitchcock, The Paperboy, Quartet yet; not planning to see *** *******ble.”

  38. Derek Hoover

    NGNG:
    Actor: Jackman
    Actress: Watts

  39. The J Viewer

    Well, in case of NGNG prediction,

    Ensemble: SLP.

  40. Uh, SLP is in no way a NGNG prediction LOL. Most experts on Gold Derby are predicting in.

  41. NGNG-

    Lincoln either-

    goes home empty-handed

    or

    wins all 4.

  42. The J Viewer

    KT, in my original prediction, Ensemble goes to ARGO, so my first runner-up/NGNG pick is SLP. Peace.

  43. Christophe

    The thing is the only real ngng for best ensemble is marigold, the other 4 actually have a decent shot at winning. Or we could say Lincoln is fave in which case any of the other 4 is ngng.

  44. NGNG-
    Lincoln either-
    goes home empty-handed
    or
    wins all 4.

    That’s how I roll. All in.
    tweeted a few minutes ago :
    “I conserve internet ink by combining my personal picks with my predictions. I get sad trying to figure out what Ed Asner wants.”

  45. Astarisborn

    In a unwanted and analytical way, I wish that Argo or Les Mis wins best ensemble so Ang Lee for Life of Pi can rightffully win DGA , BAFTA, and best Director Oscar. He trulely deserves and surpringly owns it over Speilberg even tho Lincoln is one of my favorites. Lee’s Pi is a treasure of un-film able brilliance.

  46. When did DeNiro take the lead in this race? I figured he was just a vote filler, like Streep was for many years (Music of the Heart?) before her return to the podium for Adaptation.

  47. Christophe

    I’d say most likely to win is Lincoln, then Slp, then Les Mis, Argo and finally Marigold. But I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the first 4 wins.

  48. The J Viewer

    Merci, Christophe.

    However, the way I take it, anything I didn’t pick automatically becomes NGNG (equally zero chance in my prediction book) to me.

  49. Christophe

    Yeah jviewer, somehow I think ngng makes more sense during the nomination process when there is a plethora of title/performances to choose from and room for potential surprises.

  50. Jerry Grant

    Ensemble- Lincoln
    Actor: DDL
    Actress: JLaw
    Supp. Actor: TLJ
    Supp. Actress: Hathaway

    Strong for Lincoln.

  51. NGNG – Ensemble goes to Les Mis, Actor goes to Cooper

  52. The J Viewer

    Anyway, thanks to Ryan, too, for demonstration. I like the way he’s picked his NGNG though – it’s, like, hardcore NGNG to me more or less, which serves its own original purpose.

  53. At this point, I don’ t make predictions.
    I have wishes…

    Cooper (if there’s no Phoenix…)
    Watts
    Hoffman or Arkin (happy for both)
    Hunt
    The cast of Argo

  54. Ensemble: Les Misérables (Possibly Lincoln)
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (it would be really sad if De Niro wins. Does he really need a pity award this late in his career? Just give him the Lifetime Achievement honor instead)
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

    NGNG: Hugh Jackman wins Best Actor for Les Misérables. If Ensemble goes the way I think it’s going, it’s possible.

    I’d actually be quite happy if Les Mis OR Lincoln won for Ensemble, the former because it really had the best ensemble, while a win for Lincoln’s fantastic cast would start to help it overtake the overrated Argo. If SLP or Argo wins ensemble, then I’d lose quite a bit of faith in SAG’s choices.

  55. If Silver Linings loses Emsemble, Supporting Actor, and Actress, what does that all mean?

    Without Phoenix nominated, the only actor I could see beating Lewis is Jackman, but that won’t happen.

    ENSEMBLE:
    Prediction- Silver Linings
    No Guts- Argo

    ACTOR:
    Prediction- Daniel Day Lewis

    ACTRESS:
    Prediction- Jennifer Lawrence
    Alternate- Jessica Chastain
    No guts- Naomi Watts

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Prediction- Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Alternate- Robert DeNiro
    No Guts- Alan Arkin

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Prediction- Anne Hathaway

  56. christiannnw

    NGNG: Helen Hunt in Best Supporting Actress

    Predictions
    Ensemble: Argo
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Lay Mizerablass)

    I have a feeling I’m going to miss at last three of these.

  57. At the same moment somebody who’s not Irrfan Khan wins a SAG award tonight, a moviegoer in Mumbai will buy a Life of Pi ticket to push its worldwide earnings to $525M.

  58. alright, so maybe 20th Century Fox has only had 7 Best Picture nominees in the past 20 years, but together they’ve grossed a total of $6.4 billion, so there’s that.

  59. (last two comments previously published on Twitter @filmystic)

    if you’re not following me, you’re missing out on your recommended daily dosage of bitterness.

  60. Ensemble: SLP
    Actor: DDL
    Actress: Lawrence
    Supp Actor: De Nero
    Supp Actress: Hathaway (duh!)

    NGNG: Jackman :) Now that would shake things up

  61. SAG Actor

    We SAG folks got the Lincoln screener a few days ago, so I think

    NGNG:
    Ensemble: Lincoln
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    S. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    S. Actress: Sally Field

  62. if you’re not following me, you’re missing out on your recommended daily dosage of bitterness.

    Overdose!

  63. Last night at the PGAs, I went 0/3 in the film categories. I fared really poorly at the Globes and BFCA. That said, I predict at the SAGs:

    Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
    Actor: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
    Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
    Stunt Ensemble: Les Miserables

  64. SallyinChicago

    This should be a quick, fast show, such a short list of nominations!

  65. Christophe

    I’mma be sleepin’ now. I’ll read your kick-ass comments on the ceremony tomorrow morning. I like me some good dish. Thank y’all Paddy and the gang!

  66. NGNG:
    Ensemble: Argo
    Actor: Washington
    Actress: Marion C.
    S. Actor: Bardem
    S. Actress: SALLY FIELD in an upset!!!

    Predictions:
    Ensemble: Les Miz
    Actor: Jackman—-very well-liked—actors rarely win multiple SAGS if they were awarded recently (Streep only)–sorry, DDL—unless they are in television (White, Baldwin).
    Actress: Watts in an upset (alt. Lawrence)
    S. Actor: DeNiro (alt. Waltz)—–DeNiro has never won one before—although he’s not that great—this award is from their fellow actors.
    S. Actress: Hathaway (alt. Field)

    The “Lincoln” front-runner hoopla is over tonight and will not score well on Oscar night either…too many other good movies have swayed voters and Spielberg’s film goes empty-handed tonight—I see “The Color Purple” scenario again for “Lincoln.”

  67. Ensemble-ARGO

    Actor-DENZEL WASHINGTON

    Actress-JESSICA CHASTAIN (spoiler: NAOMI WATTS)

    S. Actor-ROBERT DE NIRO

    S. Actress-SALLY FIELD

    HOMELAND

    MODERN FAMILY

    BRYAN CRANSTON

    CLAIRE DANES

    ALEC BALDWIN

    AMY POEHLER

    KEVIN COSTNER

    JULIANNE MOORE

  68. SallyinChicago

    Amazing! a 2 hour red carpet for such a “small” award. LOL.

  69. So I read that Jennifer Lawrence has pneumonia now. I wonder if she’ll attend the SAGs. This could either help her (she has her priorities right; people miss her and feel bad about her missing an acceptance speech or two, forgetting how flippant she came off in the past) or hurt her (no red carpet appearance; out of sight, out of mind; chose health over award show attendance).

  70. Skyfall takes Stunt Ensemble, presented on the red carpet. To no-one.

  71. Bryce Forestieri

    I’m yet to know a know a hipster who liked LINCOLN

    I shouldn’t have gone to my POBox cuz now I have my BD imports of TESS, PICNIC AT HANGING ROCK, and TABU. How am I supposed to see the SAGs now? Ugh!

  72. Skyfall wins the motion picture stunt SAG and Game of Thrones won the tv series stunt SAG. Both worthy selections with excellent stuntwork. Congratulations.

  73. My no guts no glory prediction for tonight is a complete sweep for Les Miserables (except for stunt ensemble of course)

  74. Bryce Forestieri

    In a just world tonight we’d see

    Ensemble: LINCOLN
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Jessica Chastain
    S. Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman or Tommy Lee Jones
    S. Actress: Nicole Kidman or Amy Adams

  75. Regarding TV: If these SAG people knew who to vote for, Bryan Cranston–yes, three-time Emmy winner for Breaking Bad Bryan Cranston–would have a SAG statue by now. And Homeland would NOT win Best Ensemble….I cringe so often with the line delivery of some of the actors, especially Mrs. Brody, Chris, Dana, Mike (ARGH!!) Did they even realize Homeland Season 2 was a big step down from Season 1?!?!?! I’d give Ensemble to Breaking Bad or Game of Thrones in a heartbeat. And if Alec Baldwin or Betty White win…..I may just turn off the damn TV.

  76. Actor – Washington
    Actress – Cotillard
    S Actor Bardem
    S Actress – Kidman
    Ensemble – Marigold

    Just kidding.

  77. The SAG red carpet coverage is so embarrassing. The interviewers have no idea who half the people they’re interviewing actually are. It’s fucking awkward.

  78. NGNG:

    John Hawkes for Best Actor
    Helen Hunt for Supporting Actress

  79. SallyinChicago

    Confession time: I don’t have cable and I don’t know ANY of these cable TV shows & actors. I just started watching the Sopranos box set. :)

  80. I was just going to type something about how much I love Alfre Woodard but the interviewer on the AP stream just referred to her as Viola Davis and I thought I was the one confused for a second but it was him! But anyway I love Alfre Woodard.

  81. SallyinChicago

    @ kasper what RED carpet are you watching? I’m at the Sag Carpet show.

  82. SallyinChicago

    Why is Gabriel Douglas on the Red Carpet? The host asked the right question — you’re everywhere you’re everywhere! How does she score the tickets?

  83. gbocampo

    Ensemble: Argo
    Actor: Day-Lewis
    Actress: Lawrence
    Supporting Actor: Jones
    Supporting Actress: Hathaway

  84. I’m watching the AP link that’s posted above since the TNT stream kept crapping out on me.

  85. NGNG

    Ensemble: Les Miserable

    Actor: Denzel Washington

    Actress: Jessica Chastain

    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

  86. Does anyone know if there’ll be a stream for the show itself?

  87. If anyone’s looking for a stream, I think this one will work:

    http://ufreetv.com/tbs.html

  88. Assuming Argo wins the Oscar for picture, when was the last time a film won Best Picture without A) A directing nod, or B) an acting win (I’m assuming Alan Arkin won’t win, he was great but there is better performances…I’ll probably eat those words if he wins the SAG tonight). Aside from say, Grand Hotel, I can’t think of a film winning Best Picture without a directing nod or acting win attached to it.

  89. Alright Daniel Day Lewis.

  90. Michael3999

    “Argo” is taking home Best Picture, my friends! This cannot be stopped!

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