argo-affleck

Best Picture: Argo
Drama Series: Homeland
Doc Feature: Searching for Sugarman
Reality Series:
American Masters
Animated Film:
Wreck-it Ralph
Comedy Series:
Modern Family
PGA competition TV award:
Amazing Race
Best Live Talk Show: 
Stephen Colbert

Earlier predictions and background after the cut.

 

What: The Producers Guild Awards [nominees]
When: Tonight, starting at around 8pm
Where: Beverly Hilton Hotel

Our predictions:

Lincoln: Sasha Stone, Ryan Adams, Marshall Flores, Scott Feinberg
Argo: Craig Kennedy, Nathaniel Rogers

Which begs the unfortunate question, “Why for instance is this thus, and what is the reason for this thusness?”

Our contest so far has Argo way out front (admittedly, not that many people have entered):

graph-5

 

Only one film has ever won the PGA without having a corresponding Oscar nomination for Director and that was Apollo 13, which won the PGA, the SAG ensemble and the DGA before losing Picture and Director to Braveheart and Mel Gibson.

Therefore, many are thinking Argo is popular enough to overcome that, and probably the same people think Affleck will win the DGA.  That year the PGA, and Oscar, were dealing with only five nominees, not ten (weighted ballot, not preferential). Like Argo, Apollo 13 had won the Globe for Drama.

But I think to predict the Producers Guild you should think backwards from Best Picture.  This is the only reason I am not following the general consensus pick of Argo. I could very well be wrong tonight – and probably will be. But that’s the fun part of Oscar watching – humiliation to your core.  You think getting your period in gymnastics class is bad, try getting one of these big predictions wrong.

 

Over at Gold Derby, you will see it split up as well.  Only four of us are thinking Lincoln, the rest are going for Argo.

History after the cut.

First, let’s look at how things look right now, on the eve of the first guild that will likely shift the entire race in one direction, or it will splay it out like a house of cards.

PGA-Producers Guild
WGA-Writers Guild
SAG – SAG ensemble, or nod of any kind
ACE – Editors Guild
DGA-Directors Guild
CAS-Cinema Audio Society
ASC-American Cinematographers Society
ADG-Art Directors Guild

PGA CAS ASC ADG WGA SAG ACE DGA Oscar director Best Picture
Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln
Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi
Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis Not eligible Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis
Argo Argo Argo Argo Argo Argo Argo
ZDT ZDT ZDT ZDT Actress ZDT ZDT Zero Dark Thirty
SLP SLP SLP SLP SLP Silver Linings
Django Django Not eligible Django Not eligible Django Django
Beasts of the Southern Wild Not eligible Not eligible Not eligible Beasts of the Southern Wild Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour Not eligible Not eligible Amour Amour

But it doesn’t necessarily follow that a film has to have all nominations across all guilds to win – there are some more important than others — SAG ensemble, DGA and Oscar Director among them.  It is, needless to say, unheard of in recent years since they expanded Best Picture for a film to win without both the DGA and the Oscar Director nomination.

I will be curious to see how it all plays out this year.  But please don’t judge me too harshly if it’s Argo. I use the stats because the stats show how “broad support over all branches” plays out. It doesn’t speak to the heart – and the heart wants what it wants.  I am at a loss as to how this will go.  There are many out there waiting with pitchforks to shame those of us who have had faith in Lincoln receiving the accolades it richly deserves.  And perhaps they will have their chance to party naked, smear themselves with the blood of the lamb and dance around the fire knowing that this great movie took a tumble.

We wait, we wait.

2011

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Artist The Artist The Artist The Artist
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right
Inception Inception Inception
True Grit True Grit
Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3
127 Hours 127 Hours
The Town The Town

2010

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right
Inception Inception Inception
True Grit True Grit
Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3
127 Hours 127 Hours
The Town The Town

2009

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds
Avatar Avatar Avatar
Precious Precious Precious Precious
Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air
An Education An Education An Education
Invictus District 9
District 9 The Blind Side
Up Up
Star Trek Nine A Serious Man

2008

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button Benjamin Button Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight Doubt The Dark Knight The Reader
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon
Milk Milk Milk Milk

2007

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood
Diving Bell American Gangster Diving Bell Atonement
Juno Into the Wild Juno Juno
Michael Clayton 3:10 to Yuma Michael Clayton Michael Clayton

2006
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Departed The Departed The Departed The Departed
Babel Babel Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Babel
Dreamgirls Dreamgirls Bill Condon Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine Little Miss Sunshine Jonathan Dayton/Valeri Faris Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen Bobby Stephen Frears The Queen

2005

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain
Crash Crash Paul Haggis Crash
Capote Capote Bennett Miller Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck Good Night George Clooney Good Night
Walk the Line Hustle and Flow
Steven Spielberg Munich

2004

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Aviator The Aviator The Aviator The Aviator
Million $ Baby Million $ Baby Million $ Baby Million $ Baby
Finding Neverland Finding Neverland Finding Neverland Finding Neverland
Sideways Sideways Sideways Sideways
The Incredibles Ray Ray Ray
Hotel Rwanda

2003

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Last Samurai In America Sofia Coppola Lost in Translation
ROTK ROTK ROTK ROTK
Mystic River Mystic River Clint Eastwood Mystic River
Master and Commander The Station Agent Peter Weir Master and Commander
Seabiscuit Seabiscuit Gary Ross Seabiscuit
Cold Mountain

2002

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Adaptation Adaptation The Pianist The Pianist
Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago
Gangs of New York Gangs of New York Gangs of New York
Two Towers Two Towers Two Towers Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding Greek Wedding
Road to Perdition The Hours The Hours The Hours

2001

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind
The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings
Harry Potter Gosford Park Memento Gosford Park
Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge
Shrek In the Bedroom Black Hawk Down In the Bedroom

2000

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Gladiator Gladiator Gladiator Gladiator
Traffic Traffic Traffic (won director)
Erin Brockovich Erin Brockovich Erin Brockovich
Billy Elliot Billy Elliot
Almost Famous Almost Famous Almost Famous
Crouching Tiger Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Chocolat Chocolat

1999

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Cider House Rules Cider House Rules The Cider House Rules
American Beauty American Beauty American Beauty American Beauty
The Insider Magnolia Michael Mann The Insider
The Green Mile Frank Darabont The Green Mile
The Hurricane M. Night Shyamalan The Sixth Sense
Being john Malkovich Being John Malkovich Being John Malkovich

1998

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Waking Ned Divine Waking Ned Divine Peter Weir Elizabeth
Shakespeare In Love Shakespeare in Love John Madden Shakespeare in Love
Gods and Monsters Little Voice Terrence Malick The Thin Red Line
Life Is Beautiful Life is Beautiful Roberto Benigni Life Is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan (director winner)

1997

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Titanic Boogie Nights Titanic Titanic
Amistad The Full Monty The Full Monty The Full Monty
L. A. Confidential LA Confidential L. A. Confidential L. A. Confidential
As Good As It Gets As Good as it Gets As Good as it Gets As Good as it Gets
Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting

1996

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Fargo Marvin’s Room Fargo Fargo
Shine Shine Shine Shine
Hamlet Sling Blade Secrets & Lies Secrets & Lies
The People vs. Larry Flynt The Birdcage Jerry Maguire Jerry Maguire
The English Patient The English Patient The English Patient The English Patient

1995

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Leaving Las Vegas Leaving Las Vegas Babe
Dead Man Walking Get Shorty Mel Gibson Braveheart
Apollo 13 Apollo 13 Apollo 13 Apollo 13
Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility
Il Postino Il Postino Il Postino
The Bridges of Madison County How to Make an American Quilt
The American President Nixon

PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

1994

Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral* Four Weddings and A Funeral
Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption* Shawkshank Redemption
Robert Redford for Quiz Show Quiz Show
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Pulp Fiction
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Forrest Gump+

1993

Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* The Fugitive
Jane Campion for The Piano The Piano
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day The Remains of the Day
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence In the Name of the Father
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Schindler’s List+

1992

Robert Altman for The Player Scent Of a Woman
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men A Few Good Men
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Unforgiven+
James Ivory for Howards End Howards End
Neil Jordan for The Crying Game Neil Jordan for The Crying Game The Crying Game

1991

Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides Prince of Tides
Oliver Stone for JFK JFK
Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise Beauty and the Beast
Barry Levinson for Bugsy Bugsy
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs The Silence Of the Lambs+

1990

Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III The Godfather Part III
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Dances With Wolves+
Barry Levinson for Avalon Awakenings
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas GoodFellas
Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso Ghost