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The Best Bad Idea They Had: Argo Wins the Producers Guild

argo-affleck

Best Picture: Argo
Drama Series: Homeland
Doc Feature: Searching for Sugarman
Reality Series:
American Masters
Animated Film:
Wreck-it Ralph
Comedy Series:
Modern Family
PGA competition TV award:
Amazing Race
Best Live Talk Show: 
Stephen Colbert

Earlier predictions and background after the cut.

 

What: The Producers Guild Awards [nominees]
When: Tonight, starting at around 8pm
Where: Beverly Hilton Hotel

Our predictions:

Lincoln: Sasha Stone, Ryan Adams, Marshall Flores, Scott Feinberg
Argo: Craig Kennedy, Nathaniel Rogers

Which begs the unfortunate question, “Why for instance is this thus, and what is the reason for this thusness?”

Our contest so far has Argo way out front (admittedly, not that many people have entered):

graph-5

 

Only one film has ever won the PGA without having a corresponding Oscar nomination for Director and that was Apollo 13, which won the PGA, the SAG ensemble and the DGA before losing Picture and Director to Braveheart and Mel Gibson.

Therefore, many are thinking Argo is popular enough to overcome that, and probably the same people think Affleck will win the DGA.  That year the PGA, and Oscar, were dealing with only five nominees, not ten (weighted ballot, not preferential). Like Argo, Apollo 13 had won the Globe for Drama.

But I think to predict the Producers Guild you should think backwards from Best Picture.  This is the only reason I am not following the general consensus pick of Argo. I could very well be wrong tonight – and probably will be. But that’s the fun part of Oscar watching – humiliation to your core.  You think getting your period in gymnastics class is bad, try getting one of these big predictions wrong.

 

Over at Gold Derby, you will see it split up as well.  Only four of us are thinking Lincoln, the rest are going for Argo.

History after the cut.

First, let’s look at how things look right now, on the eve of the first guild that will likely shift the entire race in one direction, or it will splay it out like a house of cards.

PGA-Producers Guild
WGA-Writers Guild
SAG – SAG ensemble, or nod of any kind
ACE – Editors Guild
DGA-Directors Guild
CAS-Cinema Audio Society
ASC-American Cinematographers Society
ADG-Art Directors Guild

PGA CAS ASC ADG WGA SAG ACE DGA Oscar director Best Picture
Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln
Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi
Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis Not eligible Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis Les Mis
Argo Argo Argo Argo Argo Argo Argo
ZDT ZDT ZDT ZDT Actress ZDT ZDT Zero Dark Thirty
SLP SLP SLP SLP SLP Silver Linings
Django Django Not eligible Django Not eligible Django Django
Beasts of the Southern Wild Not eligible Not eligible Not eligible Beasts of the Southern Wild Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour Not eligible Not eligible Amour Amour

But it doesn’t necessarily follow that a film has to have all nominations across all guilds to win – there are some more important than others — SAG ensemble, DGA and Oscar Director among them.  It is, needless to say, unheard of in recent years since they expanded Best Picture for a film to win without both the DGA and the Oscar Director nomination.

I will be curious to see how it all plays out this year.  But please don’t judge me too harshly if it’s Argo. I use the stats because the stats show how “broad support over all branches” plays out. It doesn’t speak to the heart – and the heart wants what it wants.  I am at a loss as to how this will go.  There are many out there waiting with pitchforks to shame those of us who have had faith in Lincoln receiving the accolades it richly deserves.  And perhaps they will have their chance to party naked, smear themselves with the blood of the lamb and dance around the fire knowing that this great movie took a tumble.

We wait, we wait.

2011

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Artist The Artist The Artist The Artist
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right
Inception Inception Inception
True Grit True Grit
Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3
127 Hours 127 Hours
The Town The Town

2010

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right The Kids Are All Right
Inception Inception Inception
True Grit True Grit
Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3
127 Hours 127 Hours
The Town The Town

2009

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds
Avatar Avatar Avatar
Precious Precious Precious Precious
Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air
An Education An Education An Education
Invictus District 9
District 9 The Blind Side
Up Up
Star Trek Nine A Serious Man

2008

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button Benjamin Button Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight Doubt The Dark Knight The Reader
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon
Milk Milk Milk Milk

2007

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood There Will Be Blood
Diving Bell American Gangster Diving Bell Atonement
Juno Into the Wild Juno Juno
Michael Clayton 3:10 to Yuma Michael Clayton Michael Clayton

2006
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Departed The Departed The Departed The Departed
Babel Babel Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Babel
Dreamgirls Dreamgirls Bill Condon Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine Little Miss Sunshine Jonathan Dayton/Valeri Faris Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen Bobby Stephen Frears The Queen

2005

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain
Crash Crash Paul Haggis Crash
Capote Capote Bennett Miller Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck Good Night George Clooney Good Night
Walk the Line Hustle and Flow
Steven Spielberg Munich

2004

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Aviator The Aviator The Aviator The Aviator
Million $ Baby Million $ Baby Million $ Baby Million $ Baby
Finding Neverland Finding Neverland Finding Neverland Finding Neverland
Sideways Sideways Sideways Sideways
The Incredibles Ray Ray Ray
Hotel Rwanda

2003

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Last Samurai In America Sofia Coppola Lost in Translation
ROTK ROTK ROTK ROTK
Mystic River Mystic River Clint Eastwood Mystic River
Master and Commander The Station Agent Peter Weir Master and Commander
Seabiscuit Seabiscuit Gary Ross Seabiscuit
Cold Mountain

2002

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Adaptation Adaptation The Pianist The Pianist
Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago
Gangs of New York Gangs of New York Gangs of New York
Two Towers Two Towers Two Towers Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding Greek Wedding
Road to Perdition The Hours The Hours The Hours

2001

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind A Beautiful Mind
The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings The Lord of the Rings
Harry Potter Gosford Park Memento Gosford Park
Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge
Shrek In the Bedroom Black Hawk Down In the Bedroom

2000

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Gladiator Gladiator Gladiator Gladiator
Traffic Traffic Traffic (won director)
Erin Brockovich Erin Brockovich Erin Brockovich
Billy Elliot Billy Elliot
Almost Famous Almost Famous Almost Famous
Crouching Tiger Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Chocolat Chocolat

1999

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

The Cider House Rules Cider House Rules The Cider House Rules
American Beauty American Beauty American Beauty American Beauty
The Insider Magnolia Michael Mann The Insider
The Green Mile Frank Darabont The Green Mile
The Hurricane M. Night Shyamalan The Sixth Sense
Being john Malkovich Being John Malkovich Being John Malkovich

1998

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Waking Ned Divine Waking Ned Divine Peter Weir Elizabeth
Shakespeare In Love Shakespeare in Love John Madden Shakespeare in Love
Gods and Monsters Little Voice Terrence Malick The Thin Red Line
Life Is Beautiful Life is Beautiful Roberto Benigni Life Is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan Saving Private Ryan (director winner)

1997

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Titanic Boogie Nights Titanic Titanic
Amistad The Full Monty The Full Monty The Full Monty
L. A. Confidential LA Confidential L. A. Confidential L. A. Confidential
As Good As It Gets As Good as it Gets As Good as it Gets As Good as it Gets
Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting Good Will Hunting

1996

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Fargo Marvin’s Room Fargo Fargo
Shine Shine Shine Shine
Hamlet Sling Blade Secrets & Lies Secrets & Lies
The People vs. Larry Flynt The Birdcage Jerry Maguire Jerry Maguire
The English Patient The English Patient The English Patient The English Patient

1995

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

Leaving Las Vegas Leaving Las Vegas Babe
Dead Man Walking Get Shorty Mel Gibson Braveheart
Apollo 13 Apollo 13 Apollo 13 Apollo 13
Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility Sense and Sensibility
Il Postino Il Postino Il Postino
The Bridges of Madison County How to Make an American Quilt
The American President Nixon

PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

1994

Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral* Four Weddings and A Funeral
Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption* Shawkshank Redemption
Robert Redford for Quiz Show Quiz Show
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Pulp Fiction
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Forrest Gump+

1993

Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* The Fugitive
Jane Campion for The Piano The Piano
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day The Remains of the Day
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence In the Name of the Father
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Schindler’s List+

1992

Robert Altman for The Player Scent Of a Woman
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men A Few Good Men
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Unforgiven+
James Ivory for Howards End Howards End
Neil Jordan for The Crying Game Neil Jordan for The Crying Game The Crying Game

1991

Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides Prince of Tides
Oliver Stone for JFK JFK
Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise Beauty and the Beast
Barry Levinson for Bugsy Bugsy
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs The Silence Of the Lambs+

1990

Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III The Godfather Part III
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Dances With Wolves+
Barry Levinson for Avalon Awakenings
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas GoodFellas
Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso Ghost

 

382 Comments on this Post

  1. Draconary

    Apollo 13 doesn’t won globe for drama. That year the prize went to Ang Lee’s “Sense and Sensibility”

  2. Hector Delgado, Jr.

    Lincoln will will tonight, and start the first of three nails in the coffin of Argo, Silver Linings et al. Next after that will be the WGA and next week the DGA for Spielberg, game – set – match – Lincoln! Kid yourselves if you like about Lincoln not winning Picture/Director/Actor next month, while your at it why not double down on Mitt Romney becoming President!

  3. My prediction: ARGO.

    And the rest is history…

  4. christiannnw

    Good compilation of stats and charts, but I’m pretty sure “Driving Miss Daisy” also managed to win the Producers Guild without a corresponding Oscar nod for director, at least according to the award’s wikipedia page. I’m trying to verify this on the PGA’s website, but i’m beginning to develop an aneurism just from navigating it.

  5. Ávila Souza Oliveira

    I REALLY don’t know what to predict, but I want to see Les Mis winning!

  6. Thing is, I know it has its haters here, but how many people who aren’t putting Lincoln at #1 aren’t putting it #2 or #3? How many people are actively voting against it, placing it at or toward the bottom of the list? I’d think it would be a perfect consensus choice, especially if The King’s Speech won. The other choices like Argo and Silver Linings (good but not brilliant) and Pi (CGI) seem more polarizing.

  7. Unlikely hood

    Argo fuck itself.

    Lincoln and Kennedy have metal coming to them. (too subtle to be tasteless?)

  8. Hektor: “Lincoln will will tonight, and start the first of three nails in the coffin of Argo, Silver Linings et al.”

    Great words. Hope it will be true.

  9. Robin Write

    I just can’t believe The Social Network lost two years in a row… :-)

  10. Apollo 13 won the PGA back when the PGA mattered very little. Should Argo win tonight, it’d matter much more.

    I think people are putting too much faith in Argo on the back of its Globe and BFCA wins. Neither of those groups would have picked Argo had their ballot deadlines extended past Oscar nominations. I expect PGA, DGA and SAG might like to ensure that their influence is more likely to be felt, meaning they’ll go with Lincoln or SLP (DGA aside). Then again, whether this Argo buzz is real or fake, it exists nonetheless, so a win for Argo may yet prove more influential than the stats would imply it could, with no Oscar Director nomination.

  11. Astarisborn

    Will win- Argo
    Should win- Lincoln
    Upset- Life of Pi
    Should not be nominated- Silver Linings

  12. Also, were Django, Beasts and Amour ineligible for the ASC?

  13. The J Viewer

    My PGA prediction for Best Picture: LINCOLN. In my opinion, it is most likely to be a safe bet when it comes to PGA; I tend to look at PGA as more mainstream than Oscar for instance. I might be wrong re the mainstream outlook though.

    Thanks for a read, Sasha.

  14. I still think the votes for Ben Affleck were counted for Benh Zeitlin.

  15. Bryce Forestieri

    SIGHT. Finally all will be settled.

    LINCOLN wins PGA (easily)

  16. Jack, when they choose director they don’t type director’s name but film’s name. Only actors are exception.

    So if they nominated Zeitlin it means they typed Beasts of the Southern Wild.

  17. RIOBALDO

    …..My prediction its….LIFE OF PI..I know,its an upset,..that will send waves of shock to all the industry …ala Silence of the lambs! ..

  18. Bryce, I love your confidence. But do you have any extra information we don’t have as you are talking about Lincoln’s easy sweep so often?

    I must say it would be great if your predictions came true. :)

  19. Bryce Forestieri

    @mecid

    I can can only tell you this, get ready for tomorrow because

    LINCOLN will win the SAG-ensemble

  20. This is totally OT, but the Oscars has a contest with Stumble Upon right now. Everyday they assemble 15 web pages about the Oscars and you have to “stumble” through them all to try and win a prize. Today, Awards Daily article about Ensemble casts from back in November is one of the sites it “stumbles” upon. Thought it was pretty cool.

  21. comedywontwin

    Argo will everything including Oscar best picture….very obvious it’s the frontrunner now and it has too much love and support.

  22. Argo or SLP will win.

  23. daveinprogress

    I’m showing my naivete, but before i looked closely at the previous winners and nominees of the PGA, i imagined that the determinant factor for the prize was perceived degree of difficulty in a production. But i see that is not the case. For this year i would predict Lincoln or Life of Pi, or Les Miz but on the basis of past years, anything is possible. If it is overall excellend across the many departments (ala Best Picture) then it is as subjective as pretty much every other award. Ok apples and oranges, but when comparing acting or costumes etc there is some degree of criteria that applies; so what do other producers look for in judging the ‘best’ in a given year – i come back to degree of diffculty and success in executing the vision of the creative personnel. Little Miss Sunshine? Sweet film but a Producer’s achievement? Babel was far more ambitious. Slumdog? Benjamin Button & Dark Knight would have been worthier. Like I opened with – naivete, but what’s in a name for an award – i look at it literally. Wish others did too.

  24. Life of Pi would be a delight for me. However, I see the PGA going to Lincoln.

  25. Is there any kind of precedent for a film winning PGA or Oscar BP based on overwhelming sympathy for being snubbed for a best dir Oscar nom? Ohhhh, poor Argo. Here, we’ll make it better.

    I agree with the Lincoln predictors and think SLP falls into the Little Miss Sunshine category as far as Oscar BP goes.

  26. Argo for the win, but I won’t be shocked if Lincoln wins.

  27. “Argo will everything including Oscar best picture”
    “Apollo 13 doesn’t won globe for drama”
    “Lincoln will will tonight, and start the first of three nails in the coffin of Argo, Silver Linings et al.”

    It’s like people are allergic to the word “win”?

  28. Will Mavity

    People are going to Argo based on success with awards shows filled with NO VOTERS from the academy. I think we will see Lincoln officially establish itself as the frontrunner here tonight

  29. AnthonyP

    Argo is going to win it. Move along….

  30. Robin Write

    Is it televised / available online to watch?

  31. Fuck’s sake Zach I’ve just come out in a rash TY

  32. Goodvibe61

    Will sanity be restored tonight?

    Lincoln.

  33. Edkargir

    Beast of the southern wild should win. I would be happy if zero dark thirty or slp won. I think lincoln will win.i have stroke if life of pi wins should not have been m

  34. OMG, NGNG: Beasts of the Southern Wild. The true Little Miss Sunshine of the year, on so many levels.

  35. Mohammed

    Will (probably) win : Lincoln ( It’s almost like The King’s Speech, except not as good and less funny)

    Should win : Argo ( Rarely are this kind of political films made, and even rarer are they this good and make close to 200 million as Argo has)

  36. I think you meant it’s like The King’s Speech, only much better and less funny.

  37. Astarisborn

    The cerimony begins at 8 pacific time.

  38. And if you’re going to go the political route, then you should be advocating Zero Dark Thirty, not Argo. Rarely are films made about contemporary political events, much less foreign policy, the war in Iraq, and terrorism. On the other hand, historical/political thrillers like Argo are a dime a dozen. Missing, Frost/Nixon, The Insider.

  39. 8 Pacific? Guess I won’t be finding out until tomorrow. Bye, all. Break a leg, Lincoln.

  40. Puhleez!

    LINCOLN!

  41. Prediction: Lincoln.

  42. ^ so they announce these in advance? Their site says the presentation is Jan 30th, but I saw Winston’s post (and yours) and saw the Yahoo news.

  43. I’d be happy with Argo or Lincoln :)

  44. daveinprogress

    Looks like the AACTA (Formerly Australian Film Institute) have announded the International awards only in a separate presentation in LA, with the local categories and productions – film and tv on the 30th in Australia. I am (and was last year) bemused and angered by these prizes – The Artist hadn’t yet opened last year when it won the AACTAs last year. Silver Linings has not yet opened here this year. These categories are decided by some exclusive group – i do not know how many or from where it is drawn. I am a member of this Academy, but only the Australian film categories am I eligible to take part in the voting process. I hope it is not prophetic for the rest of the awards cycle this year.

  45. Looks like 2011 table repeats 2010 one except for the winner.

  46. The awards are going to SLP. If the movie had starred Sasha’s girl crush, blue bloody Rooney Mara, she’d be rooting for it, too. Xo

  47. Bryce Forestieri

    Anyone not prediction LINCOLN to win tonight is a major douchebag

  48. comedywontwin

    if there was no bull shit controversy surrounded ZD30, it would win…within the current circumstance and the love Affleck has been given from voters and industry folks, Argo will go all the way….for me it’s the frontrunner now. and again, Comedy won’t win, so SLP is a dead deal. It’s a battle between Argo and Lincoln, the rest are spot fillers.

  49. “Silver Linings Playbook just won 3 Australian Academy Awards !
    A sign of things to come !”

    Yeah, the Aussies make up such a huge block in AMPAS.

  50. @Bryce, Can we dispense with the name-calling? Things get emotional enough on this site without resorting to that.

  51. APOLLO 13 didn’t win the Golden Globe for best drama. SENSE AND SENSIBILITY did.

    And how is DJANGO UNCHAINED not eligible for the ASC? INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS – same DP, same director, same studio – was and was nominated.

    ARGO wins tonight!!!!!!

  52. Tonight I’d like to be surprise: Zero Dark Thirty or Life of Pi, please, to shake things up!

  53. MoviePooch

    Should win : Argo ( Rarely are this kind of political films made, and even rarer are they this good and make close to 200 million as Argo has)

    Argo has made $116,156,000. That’s nowhere near $200 million.

  54. Mohammed

    MoviePooch: So now the only numbers that count is the American ones ? Take a look at the international box office.

  55. I love Argo as much as everyone else but who exactly would the voters be striking back at by giving it the PGA and Oscar? ” How Dare US NOT NOMINATE BEN. LET”S GIVE IT BEST PICTURE!!!!” Lol. On a more serious note I think the deserved Lincoln wins start tonight at the PGA and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if it wins the SAG tomorrow night. DGA and WGA are almost a forgone conclusion.

  56. daveinprogress

    No editorialising here, as i have not yet seen SLP, but i just received in my inbox a press statement from AACTA

  57. daveinprogress

    Silver Linings Playbook actually won 5 awards, including 2 ‘discretionary’ awards for Supp Actor and Actress for DeNiro and Weaver in addition to the Best Film, Director, Actress – Ai Carumba!

  58. PaulinJapan

    You can argue about the importance of the PGA but my hunch is that whatever wins tonight will go on to win Best Pic. What’s key, and behind the two lining up the last few years, is the similarity in the ballot system.

    It is this system that will see Argo a winner. Lincoln may get more first place votes, but I see Argo getting more 2nd and 3rd places, pushing it over the winning line. Spielberg will get his due as Best Director at the Oscars.

  59. Mohammed

    @Zach: Going into the film I had hoped it would be great. It wasn’t. From what I’ve heard Lincoln was a funny man, but having grown up on british humour I find laughter rooted in character much more pleasing than telling of funny stories or dirty jokes. It’s the reason that when brits hit, they are on another comical level than most.

    Regarding political films: Nixon, Missing ( I don’t consider The Insider a political film), and Argo are films are films about an specific person or place/country and it’s relationship to something that happened to americans.

    Zero Dark Thirty is a comment on one of america’s political fetishes: The need to declare war against an undefeatable enemy. War on terror, war on drugs etc. In that regard ZD30 is like Traffic. But unlike that film it doesn’t have a broad scope. It’s a limited film, in defence of a morally abhorent tactic.

    The only reason Bigelow has a directing Oscar is because Hollywood wanted to stick it to Cameron. She’s a good filmmaker, but not nearly as good as Campion or Denis.

  60. You seem to be forgetting that producers play a big role in the story of Argo, which should help it here

  61. Mohammed

    @Daveinprogress: I think the australian awards are as valuable to the prestige of Silver Linings Playbook as the Modern Masters award that Argo and Ben Affleck got last night in Palm Springs. It means nothing.

    The only international awards that count this time of the year is the BAFTA and the César Award, and Argo has that covered.

  62. Actually PGA has already rewarded FOUR pictures without coresponging Oscar nomination for best director: “Driving Miss Daisy”, “Apollo 13″, “Moulin Rouge!” and “Little Miss Sunshine”. And “Apollo 13″ lost Globe to “Sense and Sensibility”.

  63. daveinprogess

    Yes, the only significance i see in this AACTA award choice, is in the timing and perception. With deadlines for votes to be sent, and a perception of who is ‘hot right now’. Argo and Silver Linings seem to have considerable cache (thanks to the publicity machines in overdrive). Visibility is key right now.

  64. Actually PGA has already rewarded FOUR pictures without coresponging Oscar nomination for best director: “Driving Miss Daisy”, “Apollo 13″, “Moulin Rouge!” and “Little Miss Sunshine”. .

    According to IMDb, the PGAs awarded Driving Miss Daisy 3 days *after* the Oscars. So that really shouldn’t count.

  65. LaQuifa Wadley

    Paddy, Miss Thing, have you gained some weight? You need to lay off that sausage.

  66. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    ^
    sounds like sausage envy to me.

  67. Bryce Forestieri

    Chris Evan’s sausage?

    …I wish

  68. I might be in a minority here, but I seriously think people are underestimating “Life of Pi” right now. While I don’t know if it will win all the major awards its up for, I have a strange (but strong) feeling the Oscars will go with that regardless what the PGA or DGA says. Maybe I should make my case in an editorial or something, but in my mind there’s enough subtle hints to point to a Pi win.

  69. Brett McNeill

    NGNG: DJANGO UNCHAINED!!!!!!!!!!!!

  70. “Maybe I should make my case in an editorial or something”

    Please do, Kevin. Some of us could use a bit of hope right now.

  71. Bob Burns

    history….. we all thought it was ABM vs FotR and out popped Moulin Rouge.

    my second biggest PG shock was TKS.

  72. This didn’t happen yet? :/

    *goes back to watching figure skating*

  73. 8 PM PST? How long do PGA ceremonies usually take? I’m predicting Lincoln, Brave and The Gatekeepers.

  74. @Steve50

    Here it is: http://moviewizardupdates.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-case-for-life-of-pi-winning-best.html

    I wrote it on the fly in less than an hour so it might not be as polished or properly structured as I usually write, but hopefully (agree or disagree) you can see where I’m coming from.

  75. Should have been here: The Master

    Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

    Could win: Argo

    Will win: Lincoln

    NGNG: Beasts of the Southern Wild

  76. Bob Burns

    chill…. it will be at least 3 hours before we hear.

  77. LaQuifa Wadley

    @Ryan
    No miss thing, just simply pointing out that he looks buffed. He must be working out.

  78. LaQuifa Wadley

    I hope it’s Zero Dark Thirty, because it do take nerve to make a film about such controversies. And Kat needs a round of applause for nerve, because it do take nerve, because with y’all vicious motherfuckers, it do take nerve. We all have lusted to be part of the glamour, the membership, and the parties. And I am picking at you bitches: Antoinette and PaulH, who bashed the movie before it came out. Y’all two were bashing it after the Pres was re-elected.

  79. MoviePooch

    @Mohammed

    Yes, when we’re talking about the Oscars it’s typically the domestic box office that counts, and the number most often referred to when talking about domestic releases. International box office would (possibly) have more influence at the Golden Globes or BAFTAs. And if you’re saying that Argo should win over Lincoln largely because it’s a well made political film, (which they both are), that has made nearly $200 million in global box office receipts, I would counter that Lincoln has made near the same amount in domestic box office that Argo has in international box office, (and Lincoln was only released internationally last week, so it’s global receipts are yet to be determined).

    And you cite that Lincoln is almost like The King’s Speech, (they’re nothing alike), but not as good and less funny. I have to point out that although Lincoln had its humorous moments, it was never meant to be a comedy. Far from it. I don’t think most people would view the effort to bring the bloody Civil War to its conclusion, while also working to pass the 13th Amendment to permanently end slavery, as a moment of levity in U.S. history.

  80. Lincoln= Boring
    Life of Pi= Brilliant
    Argo= Entertaining
    ZD30= Controversial
    SLP= hahahahahahahahhahahahaha
    Amour=Depressing
    Les Miserables= hahahaha
    Django Unchained= Fair
    BOSW=Amazing

    Should win: Argo/Life of Pi/BOSW/
    Should not win: SLP/Les Miserables/Lincoln
    Neutral: Django/Amour/ZD30

  81. Sasha.

    Your analysis “could be” wrong because while determining which movie would win, you should factor in momentum and not historical data. You are following Nate Silver but elections and awards are not similar. Awards are different game. I “may be” wrong.

    My prediction: Argo will win PGA because of momentum. If it loses, the movie which wins today will also win the oscars.
    DGA: Whichever wins today will win DGA
    Oscars Director: Lincoln vs life of pi. If either of them win DGA, they will win oscars.
    Oscars: Argo will win

  82. Bryce Forestieri

    ohh 8pm pacific time? fuck me

    Last chance for everyone to change ya’ll’s prediction to 2012’s best American film. the landmark LINCOLN.

  83. Bryce Forestieri

    whoever found LINCOLN boring didn’t go to a top 25 American university

  84. And I am picking at you bitches: Antoinette and PaulH, who bashed the movie before it came out. Y’all two were bashing it after the Pres was re-elected.

    Excuse me? I didn’t say anything one way or another about ZDT before I saw it a couple weekends ago except to ask questions. And I voted for that President so WTF? Take your nonsense elsewhere.

  85. “ohh 8pm pacific time? fuck me”

    I did not know this is what is taught in top 25 American University

  86. rufussondheim

    Only in the MBA programs, nixon.

  87. LaQuifa Wadley

    @ Antoinette
    Miss Thing grow a pair and defend the drivel that was coming out of that snout way before the film was released. You were going after Sasha and Ryan relentlessly for offering their opinion and including politics on the website. Don’t act like you forgot all of a sudden. I am sure Sash and RyRy could go back and look that shit up.

  88. Gotta love Ms Wadley. Tell it.

  89. Did I get this right, Antoinette is an amnesiac badmouthing clairvoyant bitch with a snout?

  90. LaQuifa Wadley … hmmn …

    *sips tea*

  91. Metronomanclature

    Does anyone know where a livestream can be found for the PGAs?

  92. Gentle Benj

    Just got home from SILVER LININGS. I was already predicting it to win tonight, but now I’m pulling for it. Like, with my whole self. If it doesn’t win this award and the Oscar, the world ain’t even right.

  93. Marshall Flores

    Your analysis “could be” wrong because while determining which movie would win, you should factor in momentum and not historical data. You are following Nate Silver but elections and awards are not similar. Awards are different game. I “may be” wrong.

    Everyone sees or defines “momentum” in a different way, and “momentum” is extremely prone to selection and confirmation bias. Not to mention, “momentum” is just as ephemeral and mercurial as “passion,” it can easily dissipate the day after a one-night stand. Trends are far more reliable.

    Yes, elections and awards are not similar. But what Sasha (and I) do is different from what Nate Silver does, simply because he has a lot more data to work with. We don’t. We simply dig down into the annals of history and report the trends – and there are many trends that have proven reliable over 80+ years. It’s up to you if you want to accept the stats are not.

    Quite simply, people’s behaviors are predictable and often repetitive – AMPAS is not really an exception to this rule at all.

  94. LaQuifa Wadley

    @ Reno, yes she is, Miss Thing.
    @ Vince Do you want to share some of that tea with me? You know what they say: No T, No shade.

  95. @Kevin T Rodriguez

    Thanks for sharing your post – I especially loved the reactions you included.

    Your analysis is a keeper.

  96. LaQuifa Wadley,

    Please, have a seat. I have Earl Grey, Darjeeling, among other flavors. You look awfully familiar. Have we met before?

    *Pours another cup*

  97. LaQuifa Wadley

    @Marshall Flowers You are correct, if you had the data, polling per se, you’d have a more accurate way of predicting things, but since you don’t you have to depend on patters and momentum of Awards past. Is there any way we can call members of the academy and poll them? I think it would show us tremendous insight like polling does. We would know what the editing branch thinks or the actors branch. AMPAS should release it’s vote count every year then we can dissect that in to different approaches.

  98. @Marshall Flores thanks for the interesting explanation. I still feel this year is bit different from earlier ones. Lets wait for PGA. IF Lincoln wins then the race is over.

  99. LaQuifa Wadley

    Everyone says that I look like Sasha Fierce thats why you say I look familiar. Would it be tacky of me if I poured some cognac in to the cup? Would you like some?

  100. Most of us are not going through life passing amendments or fighting revolutions or rescuing hostages or hunting terrorists. We’re just trying to stay sane and find love and meaning in our lives.

    That’s why SLP is winning hearts not just “respect.”

  101. Miss Thing grow a pair and defend the drivel that was coming out of that snout way before the film was released. You were going after Sasha and Ryan relentlessly for offering their opinion and including politics on the website. Don’t act like you forgot all of a sudden. I am sure Sash and RyRy could go back and look that shit up.

    I always have issue with politics being brought into the quality of a movie. I think the films should be judged on their own merit. I’ve always said this. But I never said anything about the quality of ZDT before I saw it. I don’t. I never do. I wait to see a film before I judge it. So whatever you’re doing is bullshit. I’m am tired of being insulted on this website when all I do is give my honest opinions of films after I’ve seen them.

    If you’re talking about some complaint about politics, it’s entirely likely that I did complain about that. I also complain about the race card and every other kind of BS that is used to try to push a film forward or knock it down which has nothing to do with whether it’s good or not.

    So really I would love to see a link to where I bashed ZERO DARK THRITY before it came out. I’d love to see one where I bashed it after it came out. I only have said that I didn’t like it and explained myself. But please, provide a link.

  102. Did I get this right, Antoinette is an amnesiac badmouthing clairvoyant bitch with a snout?

    And that’s why I don’t address Reno.

  103. “SLP is winning hearts” just made me throw up a little in my mouth.

  104. any live streaming links?

  105. LW, Yes, of course. Don’t hesitate to be generous.

    How is this awards season going for you? Any horses in the race? Any horses you’re campaigning against?

    *Takes a sip (and then another)*

  106. PaulinJapan

    SLP is enjoyable like a Big Mac* is enjoyable. It may feel good momentarily, but soon the memory of it makes you feel a little nauseous.

    *NB: Big Macs don’t earn Michelin stars.

  107. “IF Lincoln wins then the race is over.”

    In a normal year, yes. Not this year, though, unless it unexpectedly takes SAG PLUS starts cleaning up in the guilds. Even then, and only IF it does well with the guilds, it would become a probability, but not a sure thing.

    This is a very different year from the past 3 or 4 because all the events that create momentum happened all at the same time. One could not feed off the other. The Globes mean little, BCFC even less, most of the nominees have a healthy box office. Most important, a win tonight for Lincoln cannot counterbalance the shock ‘n awe ad campaign from SLP, which will not stop tomorrow morning.

    I wouldn’t call this thing yet, no matter what happens this weekend.

  108. Wreck-It Ralph! I think that’s probably the right choice in a wide-open, anything-goes category. As long as it’s not Brave, I’m happy. Though I think Tim Burton should have an Oscar by now.

  109. I think if Lincoln wins the PGA, it is a sign that everything we thought we thought is correct, and that the illusory Golden Globes and BFCA were simply mirages. Lincoln was always the only film that had checked off every box, and a PGA means nothing has changed. If it loses, than the race is really wide-open and we are likely in for a bumpy Oscar night.

  110. Argo can win PGA/DGA/SAG and still loose BP just like Apollo 13.

    If Lincoln wins tonight, it’s still the frontrunner but definitely not a lock. If it wins SAG, race is over.

    SLP has to win the SAG. If it doesn’t, it’s out. The campaign focus seems to be all in that ensemble trophy to bring momentum to the best picture oscar race. If it fails there, bye bye.

  111. Jeff Wells is in pre-gloat mode already

  112. Hopefully ZDT doesn’t win a thing. Really just the worst type of filmmaking. The filmmakers swoop in before the body of history is even cold, make high claims to historical authenticity, then spin a tale that is disavowed all over the place, even coming up with “the woman who caught bin Laden” angle to reel in the suckers. This film topped the BS scale the moment I heard about it.

  113. “Most of us are not going through life passing amendments or fighting revolutions or rescuing hostages or hunting terrorists. We’re just trying to stay sane and find love and meaning in our lives.”

    Umm, trying to wrap my head around this one. All I’ll say is that all that “passing”, “fighting”, “rescuing” and “hunting” is sometimes necessary to achieve the state of grace in which you luckily find yourself. Just finding love and meaning is a luxury more often than not.

  114. Guys, pls share live stream. Dont be selfish

  115. Danemychal

    The race isn’t over until they open the Best Picture envelope. Nobody knows anything, particularly this year.

    I hope Wreck-It Ralph wins Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. What a neat movie.

  116. The Animated Academy branch won’t deny Tim Burton his long deserving Oscar. Unlike many, I think this was not a very special year for animated and, in doubt, the majority of the branch will cast their votes for the overdue Burton. Even for the film itself, I think it’s deserving…. but there were much stronger lineups In the recent years. 2010 (TS3, How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist and the not nominated Tangled and Despicalbe Me) and 2009 (Up, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline, Princess and the Frog and The Secret of Kells) are the best examples.

  117. LaQuifa Wadley

    @Antoinette
    And I am tired of grown ass people throwing the I am angry of being bullied around because of my criticisms. Well Miss Thing get the fuck off this website and take your ass to Faux News, you’ll find your kind there. They’ll get you better than any of us intellectually challenged left wingers ever did. You want to be a critic well go ahead but expect people to shred you to bits. Miss Thing, if I remember Sash posted a video about Lena Dunham and you went on to trash on both Sash and Lena. RyRy came to Sash’s defense and gave you a poignant and passionate response about a females right to choose. Which you went to say that it was that kind of dogma that was gonna get the Pres reelected. You states that you votes for him on 08 but not this time it was someone else turn. I think that Seal Team Six documentary was also about to be shown on Discovery and that the Weinstein’s cut Pres out of the documentary. You said the pres had nothing to do with OBLs death that it was the CIA and Seal Team Six. Do yo remember now? Or are you gone?

  118. Danemychal

    There’s no livestream. Steve Pond, among others, is Tweeting from there.

  119. Antoinette

    Jeff Wells is in pre-gloat mode already

    If SLP wins anything major he has a right to. He called it forever ago and got a lot of heat for it.

  120. “Jeff Wells is in pre-gloat mode”

    I misread this the first time – didn’t see the ‘l’ in gloat – but it still made perfect sense.

  121. “Most of us are not going through life passing amendments or fighting revolutions or rescuing hostages or hunting terrorists. We’re just trying to stay sane and find love and meaning in our lives.”

    I’m trying to figure it out how they voted for Schindler’s List and Godfather in the past… since most of the people don’t right lists saving lives from a war or rule the mafia. Intruguing…

  122. Danemychal

    JP – For the record, I’m cool with a Frankenweenie Oscar too, particularly because it means Burton would take the stage.

  123. @Danemychal thanks

  124. What did George Eliot say about the quiet heroism of everyday life holding the world together. Can’t recall exactly but it could apply to SLP.
    I don’t think anything will be settled until the Oscars are announced. It’s a strange year for Best Picture. I’m guessing Lincoln or Argo but I can see other films sneeking in.

  125. LaQuifa Wadley

    @ Winston
    I sure if Jim Cameron had directed Mayo as the man that captures Bin Laden you’d be ‘fuck yeah bro’ and smashing a beer on your forehead.

  126. I don’t think Wreck-It Ralph is up for BAFTA; was it eligible? I remember when they picked Happy Feet (admittedly British) over Cars, prefacing the Oscar choice. They could do the same for Tim Burton (Mr. HBC). In his favor come Oscar time, he’s overdue and this is his passion project. On the other hand, WIR, while flashy and creative, may be too hectic, flashy, juvenile, or modern for the Academy — take your pick, but I can see it going either way. I’m just happy Brave is out of this. I never thought they would throw another Oscar to Pixar for a relatively subpar offering.

  127. Antoinette

    Well Miss Thing get the fuck off this website and take your ass to Faux News,

    Great idea.

    You want to be a critic well go ahead but expect people to shred you to bits. Miss Thing, if I remember Sash posted a video about Lena Dunham and you went on to trash on both Sash and Lena. RyRy came to Sash’s defense and gave you a poignant and passionate response about a females right to choose. Which you went to say that it was that kind of dogma that was gonna get the Pres reelected. You states that you votes for him on 08 but not this time it was someone else turn.

    What? I don’t remember this video. I barely know who Lena Dunham is. And you’re wrong. I want people to have as many abortions as possible. Fact is I voted for McCain in ’08 and Obama this time. Keep going. This is informative.

  128. correction: don’t WRITE (the word right is in my mind because of Lincoln’s amendment).

  129. Thanks steve50! That means a lot to me!

  130. LaQuifa Wadley

    @Antoinette
    I could keep going but I am not going play any games with some over weight pig who holds her automatic rifle dear to her heart. I will allow to continue make an ass out of yourself. Your dirty snatch. I bet you smell like shrimp that has been laying in a car under 100 degree weather for 3 days. Yuck!!!!!

  131. Antoinette

    I could keep going but I am not going play any games with some over weight pig who holds her automatic rifle dear to her heart. I will allow to continue make an ass out of yourself. Your dirty snatch. I bet you smell like shrimp that has been laying in a car under 100 degree weather for 3 days. Yuck!!!!!

    Just a typical day at AD.

  132. @LaQuifa Wadley-You just accidentally nailed it. Everytime the myriad historical problems with ZDT come out its apologists will trot out the feminist angle to claim that such criticisms are chauvinistic and assume the stance of victimhood. Right. The filmmakers themselves made heady claims of historical accuracy only to backtrack and mention artistic license, consolidation and the rest. Which suggests that making a film alleging to accurately and reliably assess an historical event may want to what at least long enough for a few decent histories to actually be written about it first.

  133. LaQuifa,

    Not to insert myself in the middle of the argument, but someone on this site once chimed in with the expression, “show me the receipts.” Perhaps, you could pay Antoinette that respect?

    *takes muffins out of the oven*

    Now, I have banana nut and chocolate chocolate chip.

  134. Edited version of what I just wrote:

    @LaQuifa Wadley-You just accidentally nailed it. Everytime the myriad historical problems with ZDT come out its apologists will trot out the feminist angle to claim that such criticisms are chauvinistic and assume the stance of victimhood. Right. The filmmakers themselves made heady claims of historical accuracy only to backtrack and mention artistic license, consolidation and the rest. Which suggests that making a film alleging to accurately and reliably assess an historical event may want to wait at least long enough for a few decent histories to actually be written about it first.

  135. LaQuifa Wadley

    @ Vince
    That bitch is gone and buried. Do you want some of her shrimp?

  136. Winston > Please provide a link to Kathryn Bigelow confirming that she originally was striving for documentary-like accuracy.

  137. LaQuifa Wadley

    @ Vince do you want some shrimp? You can have some as well. Just tell where Kat says that.

  138. So as someone who voted for Sarah Palin, how do you think Julianne Moore did?

  139. LaQuifa Wadley

    @Winston
    Do you want some shrimp? It used to belong to Antoinette but she is no longer with us.

  140. Antoinette

    Okay so kasper too. Keep going.

  141. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    LaQuifa Wadley

    You’re thisclose to getting put in moderation tonight.

    Only reason you’re getting a warning is because I’m in a fairly decent mood.

  142. LaQ, No shrimp for me, right now, but thanks for offering. Doesn’t go with the tea, cognac, or muffins.

    But, Winston disparaging ZD30 with a great deal of hot air … perhaps he’d like some. His breath would certainly improve.

  143. Marshall Flores

    You are correct, if you had the data, polling per se, you’d have a more accurate way of predicting things, but since you don’t you have to depend on patters and momentum of Awards past.

    Well, I certainly don’t rely on “momentum” of awards past. But as for patterns, there are many that are hard to ignore: e.g. picture/director splits are rare, no person has won Best Director without being nominated at the DGA, only 3 films in 84 years (1 in 80) has won Best Picture without a directing nomination, etc. Yes, each year brings its new challenges and uncertainties, and this year seems to be really bizarre. But sometimes even bizarre years end up having fairly conventional outcomes. We just have to wait and see.

  144. Antoinette

    Do you guys realize how disgusting you’re being? For what? Because we disagree about movies? Somehow that makes that kind of abuse okay? I have always defended my opinions without attacking other people.

  145. Modern Family wins. That show is quite unwatchable now.

  146. LaQ, Your claims against Antoinette, though … where are the receipts?

    *checks muffins on window sill*

    Still cooling.

  147. rufussondheim

    For every “expert” that quibbles with ZDT, there’s another saying it got it right.

    I think it got more right than Lincoln or Argo so I don’t think it should be held to a different standard than those –

    When the fuck is this thing happening!

  148. rufussondheim

    Yeah, Modern Family is fading fast. It still has some hilarious moments, but most episodes are merely slapstick and there’s very little elegance anymore.

  149. filmboymichael

    I’m all for healthy debate and often encourage it – but what is going on with all this hate going on between people who have a differing opinion regarding film. Can’t we just agree to disagree?? Do we have to shit on each other??!

  150. eclipse22

    soooo i’ve now seen two oscars hopefuls SLP and LES MISERABLES

    SLP was ok, i don’t get the fuss around it we did not connect, but i will say that robert de niro performance was great, maybe its a film that needs another viewing coz i did not get invested ….

    LES MISERABLES on the other hand completely won me at hello, like the first song and i was already telling myself i knew i was going to love this and i do! i do ! i do!
    its such a great feeling to be able to say wholeheartedly a film is great, and that you agree about a performance: anne hatthaway blew me away i was crying halfway through “i dreamed a dream” THAT OSCAR IS HERS! another thing was i kinda like russel crowe performance it was a nice contrast to hugh jackman( whom i also loved) voice in their many scenes !
    amanda seyfried was really good, nice pipes, the only person i didnt care for was actress singing for eponine, dunno like all the others sounded like the right period and she sounded pop?!
    but i have to give it to the thenardiers performed by helena bonham carter and sasha baron cohen they were hilarious , and had everyone laughing!
    the last scene with all the characters in the church was so sad i started choking up again then it panned out to the crowd with all the dead characters, beautiful song!
    the two kids had such lovely voices and just nailed it!

    i’m just going to admit this , I HEART TOM HOOPER and i won’t deny it, just something about the look of his films i dig! and his approach to a scene…

    if it wasnt for fact i’m hopelessly rooting for joaquin phoenix to win the oscar, then hugh jackman would be my other choice!

    i love musicals so maybe i’m biased to loving them….the thing is i feel passionate about les miserables and i don’t about SLP , i’ll try to watch argo and lincoln tomorrow if i can .in the meantime see if i can get my hands on les miserables soundtrack :)

  151. Just for the record, I have no idea about the meaning behind LaQ’s shrimp comment. If someone can explain it, feel free. Or, maybe not. Not sure if I can handle it.

    And, I’m still waiting for Winston to back his/herself up (and I’m still curious if LaQ can back herself up regarding accusations against Antoinette).

  152. I love Lincoln a lot, like top ten of the year love, but one thing that irks me a tad, my only quibble, even if minor is Mary Todd’s presence observing the proceedings of Congress. It just rings a bit false to me, regardless if it was historically accurate or not.

  153. Bryce Forestieri

    Holy shit LINCOLN!!

  154. Bryce, You’re like the Boy Who Cried Lincoln.

    There is still another 30 or so minutes before they’ll announce it.

  155. rufussondheim

    Just saw this great movie called Platinum Linings Pamphlet. It’s about a guy who was locked in a mental institution for 37 years because of a schizophrenic episode in which he threw a gallon of sulfuric acid onto a merry go round at the local zoo.

    He gets out due to a clerical error and is entrusted into the care of his comatose stepfather and his overworked Medicaid live-in-nurse. Unable to pay for his own food, he goes to the local soup kitchen where he meets a buxom blonde named Bambi who decided to volunteer at the soup kitchen after she killed her husband accidentally in a hunting accident (He was wearing a Porky Pig T-shirt and she thought he was a wild boar.)

    They decide to play tennis together and soon join a satellite tour in Dubai, where a weird hantavirus takes hold but spares them. As default winners, they win a spot in the US Open.

    At this time, the clerical error gets cleared up and the mental institution’s headmaster pursues our hero. But when he hears that our hero and Bambi have a spot in the US Open he decides to become their press agent and gets them the cover of People Magazine. What a heartwarming story!

    Well, it’s the morning of their US OPen match and they draw Steffi Graf and Andre Agassi in the first round. At this point the stepfather snaps out of his coma and bets his nurse 5,000 shares of Apple Stock that his stepson can get one point off of the Agassi/Graf pair. The nurse takes his bet.

    Soon the entire stadium is abuzz. Can our hero and Bambi get one point? Down 6 Love, 5 Love, Agassi is up to serve and quickly serves 3 Aces. At this point, all of America is watching and Agassi’s coach calls him over. You can see them discuss something and Agassi starts to cry. At this point he goes to the service line and fires two serves into the net.

    Hero and Bambi win the point! America screams and yells! End of movie.

    “It’s just like real life,” says Charles Manson from his prison cell.

  156. I finally saw all the last of the best picture nominees this weekend and my ranking would be

    1. Lincoln
    2. Amour
    3. Zero Dark Thirty
    4. Life of Pi
    —-
    and for the rest that I didn’t really care for
    5. Django Unchained
    6. Les Miserables
    7. Silver Linings Playbook
    8. Argo
    9. Beasts of the southern Wild

  157. Wow, Rufus, that was really creative. Kudos.

  158. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    - LaQuifa Wadley: Well Miss Thing get the fuck off this website and take your ass to Faux News,

    – Antoinette: Great idea.

    Antoinette has been around here for two years, contributed over 2,000 comments over these past many months.

    LaQuifa Wadley, don’t show up here out of the blue and start insulting other readers on day one. It’s your ass that needs to go someplace else if you can’t learn how to act, and fast.

  159. oooh Rufus, I hope that comes to my town.

  160. Bryce Forestieri

    @rufuss,

    thanks for heads up on the film, but I’ll stick to lesbian porn

  161. I can’t read tonight: I obviously meant Rufus, not Russ.

  162. Bryce Forestieri

    Hey Vince,

    Did you review LES MIZ yet? can’t find it on your site. I’m that stupid.

  163. rufussondheim

    If you wait for the DVD, Bryce, and double click on the vibrant Bambi while holding the “subtitle” button, you’ll get all the lesbian porn you can handle.

  164. rufussondheim

    I’m really tired of hitting refresh.

  165. Bryce Forestieri

    Sorry if for being a witless annoyance tonight but this shit is taking way too long. Can we skip drama series?

  166. Bryce, Homeland won. Go take a nap.

  167. representDLV

    While I enjoy Homeland, I really don’t get all the recent love for it. It’s not THAT good.

  168. rufussondheim

    Yeah, I’m usually in bed watching Up w/Chris Hayes by now. But, damn, I know I will be lying there wondering who won.

    This better happen quickly before I tell the tale of Franklin Pierce as told by Steven Spielberg.

  169. I think I saw that, too, rufus – didn’t Dr Oz play Manson? That movie changed my life *sobs uncontrollably*

  170. Minor error in archived charts above: Winter’s Bone should be listed under Oscar nominees instead of The Town.

  171. rufusondheim

    Vince, do you have a secret connection?

    Or is this being tweeted (I am twitter free)

  172. Was Louie or Girls even nominated for PGA? And as for Homeland, is season 2 worth the time? I thought Season 1 was good, but I”m not sure about committing to more of the same…

  173. AnthonyP

    Loved Searching for Sugarman.
    I also thought The Invisible War was very good too. That one stuck with me.
    Again, like the Best Pic nominees, will it be “feel good” (Searching for Sugarman) or “depressing” war doc (The Invisible War) that wins the Oscar?

  174. Bryce Forestieri

    @Ryan Adams

    why am I banned. Who did I insult??

  175. They are doing the Weinstein tribute right now. Next category is right after the human sacrifice.

  176. I am following tweets from Steve Pond and Gregg Kilday. Homeland hasn’t been announced yet, but, let’s face it, it’s winning right after all the droning on about the Weinsteins stop. I’m 6/7!

    *wonders where his guests LaQ and Winston ventured off to*

  177. Bryce Forestieri

    whatever happened to Deena Jones Wig? I miss that dry cunt.

    I can’t wait to get dirty against OSAGE COUNTY later in the year; saw the play

  178. Pond just tweeted: “Harvey Weinstein takes a detour in his thank-you speech to call Lincoln a masterpiece.”

  179. Steve Pond just tweeted:
    “Harvey Weinstein takes a detour in his thank-you speech to call Lincoln a masterpiece.”

    (just color commentary to keep me awake)

  180. Bryce Forestieri

    Not fair :'(

  181. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    @Ryan Adams
    why am I banned. Who did I insult??

    um, if your comment asking why you’re banned shows up on the site, then you’re not very banned, ok?

    to answer your question, though, you insult a whole bunch of people. but a lot of them deserve it so we all usually look the other way.

  182. Bryce Forestieri

    whatever happened to Deena Jones Wig? I miss that dry cunt

    I can’t wait to get dirty against OSAGE COUNTY later in the year…

  183. rufussondheim

    Weinstein is calling Lincoln a masterpiece because he got ideas from it.

    Right now he’s offering James Franco a post office management job in Tuscaloosa if he promises to put SLP #1 on his ballot.

  184. Bryce Forestieri

    I was talking about Deena Jones Wig and then I thought the work cunt was being filtered out or something…Sorry for the misunderstanding.

  185. How dare Harvey Weinstein compliment another a movie! Just some reverse psychology for the voters :P

  186. They still have television “long form” (which I suppose is equivalent to tv movie/mini-series)… which is kind of a weird name for the category because most television shows are “long form.”

  187. Bryce Forestieri

    whatever happened to Deena Jones Wig? I miss that dry vagina?

    I can’t wait to get dirty against OSAGE COUNTY later in the year. (saw the play)

  188. Bryce Forestieri

    1 2 3 this is a test

  189. Weinstein thing started over half hour ago.

  190. Harvey is STILL talking.

  191. Bryce Forestieri

    Can’t wait to get dirty later in the year against OSAGE COUNTY…This is getting boring?

  192. I gotta pack it in. Mind if I take one of those muffins on my way out, Vince?

  193. @kasper, Game Change already won that; it’s not listed here though.

  194. Steve50 > Certainly. LaQ left a whole bottle of top shelf Cognac here. Feel free to have a shot or two before you leave.

  195. is there any link that you guys are watching the pga?

  196. Osage County is by the same guy who wrote Killer Joe, right? I’m excited for that movie but am a bit discouraged by the director because THe Company Men, despite Tommy Lee Jones’ performance in it, was such a bore.

  197. How much more time will take to announce best pic to argo?

  198. If August movie is as great as the play, plan to meet in the middle of the ring, Bryce.

  199. Oh, thanks @Patrick. I’m so happy for my little Jonathan from Buffy/Doyle from Gilmore Girls!!

  200. John Wells also created ER–an intimate, tense drama. Kind of like August.

  201. Bryce Forestieri

    oh word?

    I’ll be here <3

    are we doing a most expected of the year poll?

  202. 7/8. Homeland officially won.

    Now for my last prediction …

  203. rufussondheim

    the script for August Osage County is available online – it’s worth reading

    But if you aren’t used to reading plays, you might not see how excellent it is.

  204. AnthonyP

    Argo won!

  205. Bryce Forestieri

    Is someone gonna do the movie version of AT SWIM TWO BOYS? I need to get behind a gay movie again…

  206. Yeah I liked ER quite a bit when it was on, so there’s that. August must be quite different from Killer Joe or Bug if Meryl’s involved. Though, it might be amusing to see what she can do with some K-Fried-C.

  207. Bryce Forestieri

    fah real??????????????????????

  208. Whoops. I was wrong. They went with the movie that pats producers on the back. Duh. Oh well.

  209. Danemychal

    Wow, Argo. Has to be the front runner now. Despite the lack of Best Director nod. It’s crazy that the front runner prediction is now for a BP/BD split. Lincoln and SLP not dead yet though.

  210. Argh, every year we have to wait the longest for the PGA. Awards ceremonies that have to deal with live worldwide telecasts and 20+ categories and acceptance speeches like the Golden Globe, Oscars etc. manage to finish up at least an hour earlier than the PGA.

  211. representDLV

    ARGO. Nice

  212. Bryce Forestieri

    LINCOLN is the underdog now, the little movie that could against this populist entertaining thriller or whatever the fuck ARGO is…you guys I’m raving mad!

  213. AnthonyP

    You mean Argh-o!

  214. Argo is far from a worthy winner in this lineup, but more importantly, WHY IS IT SWEEPING EVERYTHING?

    Even its fans would have to admit that things should be spread out.

    All it’s lost so far is the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical!

    Oh, well, SLP for the SAG tomorrow.

  215. Bryce Forestieri

    Can someone confirm this travesty?!

  216. August gets down and dirty, but not at the disturbing levels of Killer Joe or Bug. August is a family drama with an assortment of members and skeletons in the closet. It’s dark, but not Michael Shannon or sucking on a drumstick dark. Completely different class of writing too. Love, love, love that play. The casting was business-driven, but I still like every choice.

  217. SKYFALL WON!

    that would be funny.

  218. PaulinJapan

    Argo, baby! Called it. The race ain’t over yet, but the Affleck flick is definitely the front runner now.

  219. Apparently the power dynamic in Hollywood is like this:

    Harvey Weinstein
    George Clooney

    Steven Spielberg
    Scott Rudin

  220. All going according to plan, Argo – PGA, SLP – SAG, Argo – DGA = SLP = Oscar.

  221. filmboymichael

    Great choice.

  222. rufussondheim

    Hooray, I guess, well, let’s hope tomorrow night Argo doesn’t win or the excitement will be over.

  223. HAHA, argo. Holltwood can be truly mediocre sometimes.

  224. AnthonyP

    This only solidifies my vote for Spielberg-Director and Argo-Best Pic at the Oscars.

  225. “I’m raving mad!”

    That’s been long-established, Bryce.

    Have a great night everyone.

    Send my regards to LaQ and Winston if you see them.

    *Finishes cleaning up, grabs the bottle of cognac, and turns light off in the kitchen*

  226. well. i don’t understand why argo is taking everything.

    and i really believe that the AMPAS have a better taste. well, their nominees were so much better choosed at least in best direction.

  227. Ok now that Argo has won again can we stop hearing how Lincoln is the frontrunner?

  228. Best Movie Argo. As i told you before all these statistics are complete nonsense when it comes to awards. ARGO WILL WIN THE OSCARS. ITS LOCKED. Tomorrows SAG awards are meaningless.

    Next important award is DGA. If Argo wins them then it will be more interesting at academy between Lee and Spielberg.

    As of now with the momentum index i predict Lincoln to win only one award for acting at the oscars.

  229. rufussondheim

    If Argo wins Best Picture at the Oscars, how many other awards does it win. Editing? Screenplay? Score?

    I see Editing, and after that, I don’t see much.

  230. comedywontwin

    I said I put my money on Argo, and I said it will win everything, and it’s the frontrunner, no upset will happen…it’s got lots of support and it’s the replacement for ZD30 backlash….very predictable. The lesson to learn is Comedy won’t win, not to mention romantic comedy.

  231. Lincoln is dead. Race is between Argo and SLP!

  232. Bryce Forestieri

    This is terrible news for all film intellectuals. I hope there is an ARGO backlash or wait that thing os more generally agreeable than TITANIC. Never mind.

    Who would have loved seeing THE IRON LADY directed by Oliver Stone back in the day? And with Meryl? Jeez, epic shit

  233. comedywontwin

    Also, Argo got DGA in the bag, so stop saying what if this movie will upset, or that movie will win….it’s all about Argo now, except oscar director which will go to someone else.

  234. Goodvibe61

    Underwhelming.

    At this rate 2012 will look like a mediocre year for film if the awards are what people have to go by.

    Argo is a good film. What it’s NOT is the best motion picture of the entire year. This is getting a tad ridiculous. Is this all because Affleck got snubbed? If so, we get it, let’s move on. If not, and Argo goes on to actually win the Oscar, the Academy really will be pidgeon holed from here on out.

  235. christiannnw

    Ehh, call me obviously old fashioned, but I’m feeling “Argo” as “Apollo 13″ at the moment; what hasn’t been decided is what will be it’s “Braveheart”. “Lincoln”, “Life of Pi”, “Silver Linings Playbook”?!?!?!?

    So much drama. In other news, Ashley Wagner defended her U.S. Figure Skating Championship title tonight, the first time any female figure skater has done so since Michelle Kwan in 2005. Let’s celebrate!(?)

  236. Considering that only 5 or 6 women have ever won an Academy Award for Best Picture, it’s not kind of a surprise that they will feel the need to repair Ben Affleck’s Best Director snub (an outrageous one definitely) giving Argo Best Picture but not giving Kathleen Kennedy, one of the industries most important producers of all time a long deserving Best Picture Oscar.

    But don’t call dead a race between a Best Director/Screenplay/Actor winner agains an Editing winner. Just wait… even bizarre years tend to come to regular outcomes as someone perfectly said here.

  237. I don’t pretend to understand Hollywood. I assume Arkin is now the favorite for supporting actor. SMH.

  238. Argo -yes! my hunch was right. Sorry, Sasha.

  239. Bryce Forestieri

    Hey @rufuss?

    I’m sure you read A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius. Who would you cast as the lead? I thought that guys was one of the hottest character in any book.

  240. WOW! Just WOW….

    Congratulations to Ben and George!

    WOW!

  241. This is one weird year. Were Affleck nominated for Best Director, I’d say it was over. Still, momentum is on Argo’s favour. If Argo takes the SAG and/or DGA, we can then brand it the undisputed frontrunner. But until then, it’s still anyone’s game. Never underestimate the influence of Harvey and Spielberg. I could see the scenario where SLP takes SAG while Lincoln takes DGA and WGA. We might be left scratching our heads all the way to Oscar Night. But for now, I’m not thinking of abandoning the Lincoln ship just yet. We’ll see.

  242. I don’t see how Argo beats Lincoln/Kushner for the WGA or script Oscar. Even the Argo fans would lay off, I would think.

    My question isn’t why Argo is winning. My question is WHY ARGO HAS WON EVERYTHING.

  243. Argo wishes it were Apollo 13. I just don’t understand. There was some tension, but really I don’t even know what to make of Argo. How anyone can see anything approximating best film in it I don’t know. I didn’t see if with King’s Speech, but I could understand it (good acting at the center of a period-piece underdog tale). If Argo were to win, it would be the most puzzled I’d be over the Oscars since Crash.

  244. WOW, Argo has great, great support. I didn’t think it could win Critics Choice, then I didn’t think it could win the Golden Globe, then I didn’t think it could win PGA…so now it’s time for me to realize that Ben Affleck could actually WIN the DGA, too.

    I have no idea why these organizations don’t go for Lincoln, especially after showering it with nominations, but the one thing that’s certain, that now it needs that SAG Ensemble more than ever and then the DGA to seal the deal. BAFTA voters probably won’t go for it, they didn’t nominate Spielberg AND they went apeshit over Argo.

    Come to think of it, the infamous Affleck-snub in BD could have been a blessing in disguise, and the crucial part of Argo’s now-uberstrong Oscar narrative. Had he been nominated, it could have been just another michaelclaytonesquebpbd contender for voters, but now that there is this strange sense of injustice in the air, the film will get the inevitable sympathy votes and those might be the ones tipping the scale in its favor in the end.

  245. Let the backlash begin….

  246. Daveylow

    Argo, the most conventional movie of the bunch, wins PGA. Ang Lee, now please win DGA.

  247. The Dude

    As someone else pointed out in another thread, this is a movie in which Hollywood producers are big heroes- it wouldn’t lose here.

    But I still don’t see it taking the Oscars, and I am becoming more confident in think that Life of Pi will take it- it’s a more emotional movie than Lincoln and Argo, doesn’t have the “USA!USA!” factor that might cost votes with foreign viewers, and it won’t be seen as fluff by some or many, like SLP.

  248. Bryce Forestieri

    Why did take coffee so late?

    THE KING’S SPEECH > ARGO

  249. Mohammed

    Bryce: We are all douches now! Muahahahaha! Take that to Congress and pass it on.

  250. Again, I obviously think Affleck should have been nominated and loved Argo… but his snub is (a lot) smaller than the injustice that was E.T. losing Best Picture/Directing to Gandhi… not saying Gandhi is not a good film. But E.T. is a film for the ages.

  251. Daveylow

    I think the Brits like Life of Pi just as much as Argo. And Les Miz is doing excellent business in the UK right now. Not sure if the BAFTAs will have any crossover at the Oscars this year.

  252. ***Mark my words: Best Director will be BY FAR the most interesting category at the Oscars!!

    Steven Spielberg is NOT guaranteed. DO NOT think he is the defacto winner! The industry simply does not want to award him again….Lincoln is DIVISIVE and been-there done-that, no matter how good you think the film is. The Oscars are about the industry and where the goodwill is AT THE MOMENT. Ben Affleck surely has it, as I’ve been saying here–DGA is his for the taking. But for Best Director, Ang Lee is very strong. David O. Russell is also strong with HUGE support from the acting branch. I’ve said it before, but 7 acting nomination over his last two movies is INCREDIBLE!! Michael Haneke could also darkhorse it to a win. And though very unlikely, a Benh Zeitlin win would be the surprise of the century. Pay extra attention to this category….

  253. BlueFox94

    “ARGO” haters gonna hate.

    I do think it’s the best film of the ear and “WRECK-IT RALPH” the best animated film of the year. All the way to the Oscars!!!

  254. AnthonyP

    I’m amazed how many people on this site still vote with their hearts, after all the talk about how you need to vote what you think will win, NOT what you want to win.
    It was a no brainer after Affleck won the Globe that Argo would win the PGA,and I’m %100 certain it will now win the Oscar for Best Picture, whther I thought it was deserving or not.

  255. Bryce Forestieri

    So Best Actress in 2014 will be between Meryl and who?? Who’s aware at this point of the potentially strong contenders?

  256. If Argo has to win best picture, I hope it only wins best picture. We need some interesting breaks from routine statistics. I would be more excited about an unpredictable year if the movies winning were exciting. Lincoln, on the surface, looks like the classic Best Picture winner, but it’s so obviously deeper than those shallow historical dramas of the 90s, and it hasn’t won a single major award. But the feel-good Argo is winning, for what? For what, for allowing us to turn our brains off and enjoy the ride. Tomorrow’s eventual winner, Silver Lining’s Playbook, an okay movie, will sting even more because it will say that the collective acting in that is better than the collective acting of Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field, Gloria Reuben, Michael Stuhlbarg, James Spader, Lee Pace, etc etc etc etc. No way, I’m not buying that.

  257. Bryce Forestieri

    Sandra Bullock in GRAVITY? Shit don’t know

  258. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Bryce, those 4 comments of yours from earlier tonight have been restored. No problem. Automatic filter was overactive.

  259. @ MArshall and Sasha

    Historical numbers cannot be used to predict the future outcome. From next year onwards try to build Momentum Index which is more suited for the awards. Lincoln was never in the race.

    Oscar Award
    Oscars

    Movie- Argo
    Director- Lee vs Spielberg (If DGA goes to Ben then it would be more difficult to predict); for the time being i will go with spielberg just to make you happy
    Actor- Daniel (though he does not deserve)
    Actress- Jessica
    Supporting actor- Christopher Waltz
    Supporting Actress-Anne Hathway
    Animated- Wreck it Ralph
    Cinematography-Life of Pi
    Costume- Les Miserables
    Editing- Argo
    Foreign LAnguage- Amour
    Makeup-Les Miserables
    Music-Life of Pi
    Song-Skyfall
    Production Design-Life of Pi
    Sound Editing-Skyfall
    Sound Mixing-Life of Pi
    Visual Effects-Life of Pi
    Adapted screenplay-Argo
    Original Screenplay-Django Unchained

    Lincoln-2
    Life of Pi-5
    Skyfall-2
    Argo-3
    Django Unchained-2
    Les Miserables- 3
    ZD30-1
    Wreck it Ralph-1
    Amour-1
    Original Screenplay

  260. Bryce Forestieri

    @Ryan

    Thanks!

  261. I can’t even hate Argo. I have absolutely no feelings towards it. I barely remember it. I remember the line, I remember the tension. Mostly I remember the wow finish. A guy sitting in a theatre in the dark with a comical look on his face because his insides had just been kicked out.

  262. Why do people keep saying that Lincoln is a “been there, done that” type of movie, because it’s a historical drama? Lincoln is different from the usual fare that was nominated in the past. One can say Amistad, Spielberg was a been there done that type of movie. Or Empire of the Sun. Or War Horse. But not Lincoln.

  263. Bryce Forestieri

    How do I get an avatar?

  264. Looks like we’re in for another rather forgettable Best Picture winner a la The Hurt Locker. That’s a shame. I was rooting for Les Mis (despite having a very, very, very small chance), but I still would have preferred Lincoln to win over Argo. It was the second best nominee, but at least it had some great performances to make it a bit memorable.

    This is not to say that Argo was a bad film, it was ok, but not really remarkable in any way. Certainly not the best film of the year, not by a long shot.

    Oh well, hopefully things will change by the time the Oscars roll around, which actually creates a bit of an internal conflict. I really want Les Mis to take Best Ensemble, which I still think it has a great chance at doing, but I also want Lincoln to overcome Argo, which a Best Ensemble win could help in doing…

  265. Bryce Forestieri

    There are probably A LOT more, they came to mind first :

    Meryl Streep (August : Osage County)
    Naomi Watts (Diana)
    Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
    Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby)
    Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
    Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
    Jennifer Lawrence (Serena)
    Kate Winslet (Labor Day)

    Announced but probably not finished (or started) in 2013

    Lily Rabe as Mary Pickford (The First)
    Cynthia Nixon as Emily Dickinson (A Quiet Passion)
    Anne Hathaway as Judy Garland(Get Happy)
    Viola Davis as Barbara Jordan (Untitled Biopic)

  266. Kasper, Lincoln the film is not “been there done that.” Awarding Steven Spielberg is. That is my point. The Oscars do NOT award the best work in a year, but whose time it is AND who has the industry goodwill. Spielberg’s time was Schindler’s List. This is Ben Affleck’s year.

    I will emphasize again: WATCH OUT FOR BEST DIRECTOR—by far the most interesting Oscar category. We won’t know anything, even once Affleck wins the DGA.

  267. eclipse22

    kasper i have to agree with you just on paper and having only seen SLP in regards to your comment the ensemble in SLP can’t be considered better than say lincoln ,but i’ll know for sure once i see lincoln

  268. Bryce Forestieri

    @phantom

    Awesome. Hmm you’re always so informed!

  269. Also, Mia Wasikowska (Stoker) received rave reviews at Sundance, Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace) got some good ink, too, and if the Academy goes for Before Midnight, who knows, maybe even the criminally underrated Julie Delpy could sneak in, as well.

  270. P.S. WHY are people discussing best actress candidates for next year?!?!? Come on–This year isn’t even close to being finished yet.

  271. Bryce Forestieri

    Do I sign up at the forum section to get an avatar?

  272. Danemychal

    “Lincoln was never in the race”? WTF? Y’all are delusional. Lincoln is still in the race, even after tonight. It just isn’t the favorite. But maybe that will play to its advantage when a large body of people from multiple branches take to their preferential ballots. I think this takes all the pressure off and will make people view it as less of a threat, more likely to rank it higher than they would otherwise. We know at least the Directors Branch doesn’t favor Argo, not by a long shot. And Lincoln’s 12 nominations speak to the fact it is still a viable contender. The DGA will be telling. Lincoln could gain some momentum with a WGA win. I don’t expect it to get SAG Ensemble, but that hasn’t gone to the winner of BP much recently.

    For the record, my personal top 3 are Lincoln, ZDT and Argo in that order (seeing Pi Monday). I’m fine with anything but SLP & the Harvey machine winning again. But Lincoln is exceptional. If it only walks away with DDL & Kushner winning, I’d live with that.

  273. Bryce Forestieri

    Jodie Foster in ELYSIUM ala Sigourney Weaver? would’t that be bad-ass?

  274. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Bryce, sign up at gravatar.com using the same email address you use here.

  275. @KT, that’s fair.

    So who wins Best Director at Oscars if no Ben Affleck? I don’t see Haneke winning or Benh Zeitlin. David O. Russell would be a joke, a comment that would have shocked 5 years ago me. That leaves Ang Lee vs. Spielberg. And if the directors of WALL-E, Up, and Ratatouille would never be nominated in this category, why would they award it to someone who’s pretty much doing the same thing as them win it. Yes there are the less CGI bookends to Pi, but come on, the meat of that movie is mostly animated, which is not to discredit Life of Pi at all, because it’s a good movie. So then Spielberg gets the Oscar.

  276. I’ve been saying it for a while: Argo has a passionate strong support that no other film right now has. George C is beloved, Ben A is even more beloved after the Oscar snub (it is the snub that has given the film momentum), Argo is a very good movie also about Hollywood and that is a winner in this town, Argo is not divisive (96% on rotten tomatoes) and Argo is the one of the bunch that you cannot hate while watching it.

    It wins and it will win. It is not the best of the year in my opinion, but very worthy of the prize and it would have easily been the best film of any other year (any less extraordinary year).

    3 things are really great in Argo: the great use of suspense, the extraordinary way it menages to mix hollywood entertainment and docu-fiction (the film stretches the thin line between reality and fiction in a masterful way). The opening sequence (I think there are at least 3 unforgettable sequence in the film).

  277. You guys are still so adamant. Lincoln is a boring movie without any soul in it. It got 12 nominations just because spielbergs name. All the so called Gurus/Pundits/Jokers are favoring Lincoln just because of the reasons you already know and i dont want to mention them publicly.

    This years awards will be equally distributed since many good movies have been nominated. For the likely list of awards see my previous comment.

  278. AnthonyP

    Are people loving Lincoln because of the film or because of Lincoln himself?
    I left that film thinking how great Lincoln the man was, not so much how great the movie was.

  279. Bryce Forestieri

    Also Cate Blanchett (Monuments Men), Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), Chloe Moretz (Carrie) and from last year Julianne Moore (What Masie Knew), Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha) and Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa).

    I would love to see Emma Thompson back in the game and since she plays an iconic writer in a Disney Holiday release, I think she has an excellent shot at an Oscar-comeback.

  280. Bryce Forestieri

    Cameron Diaz and/or Penelope Cruz on THE COUNSELOR maybe? If Ridley Scott is on THELMA AND LOUISE mode that might be one of the year’s best

  281. That would be great, Bryce, Jodie Foster has momentum now, too.

  282. Bryce Forestieri

    And you know Tilda Swinton will be tremendous in SNOWPIERCER
    Though that might just be supporting

    @Ryan

    like a bawse

  283. Danemychal

    AnthonyP – But why it is that you walked out thinking Lincoln the man was great? Because the movie DID to you what it set out to do. Give credit where credit is due. At the very least, DDL should be rewarded for that portrayal and Kushner should be rewarded for providing his words.

  284. @Kasper: Hmmm…not sure. I think Spielberg can win. But I’m not sure if he gets a third before Haneke gets a first, Lee gets a second, or even David O. Russell gets a first. This makes me hesitant to go with Spielberg. I think Life Of Pi directed by Ang Lee gives it so much more credibility for this award, vs. the director of Wall-E or Ratatouille as you mention. It’s so director-driven, and Lee is a Master, and perhaps the most versatile director working today. Did you see Variety for this week? The cover is Ang Lee with a fantastic quote on how he is so willing to tackle challenging projects. Also his last best picture contender was screwed, and that’s still recent memory for the Academy. Something tells me David O. Russell could surprise, especially with the Harvey machine no longer conflicted on which director to push (Tarantino, Russell, or Anderson earlier in the season). I know that would make some people furious. But I’ve already done all my venting when Kathryn Bigelow was passed over, the most egregious snub I’ve seen in a long long time. Over many years I’ve learned to care less and less what happens. The Best Director category is definitely ripe for a surprise.

  285. Mohammed

    All Argo does is win, win, win, no matter what
    It got awards on it’s mind, it can never get enough
    And every time it’s asked to step up on the plate
    Lincoln’s chances go PUFF

    Wave your hands in the air and SCREAM:

    Argo wins it, Argo wins it, Argo wins it

  286. I cannot understand why Sasha is making two big errors of Oscar watching- one, being blinded by the l

  287. The J Viewer

    [Not Lincoln, no Life or Pi (and for sure not SLP).]

    Nobody knows anything. I am wrong. Again.

  288. PaulinJapan

    Bryce thinks he’s a “film intellectual”…… that’s the funniest thing that’s been posted all night.

  289. Had Lincoln gone for sentimentalism and forgettable writing, it would sweep just like Gandhi and The King’s Speech… As it made the option for being smarter, its not winning the awards. Thankfully general public responded so well to it giving it the best box office among the nominees.

  290. Love of one film- lincoln and two, believing these awards are actually about the BEST being honored.

    They should be called Most Popular as the Logies we have in Australia get called.

  291. Sorry post split in two

  292. AnthonyP

    I agree with you Danemychal.
    The actor and the words were most deserving. I also think Spielberg will get director too.
    The whole package of Best Picture, however, will come from elsewhere.

  293. Danemychal

    Phantom – I’m reading Monuments Men. Blanchett’s role isn’t the stuff of Oscar, but I could easily see this Clooney film making a lot of noise come Oscar time (it is supposed to release just before Christmas this year). Daniel Craig, Clooney, Bill Murray, Dujardin, Blanchett, Matt Damon and recent BP good luck charm John Goodman. Tell me that’s not a Best Ensemble contender in the making. Plus it puts a neat twist on WWII just like Argo does on a CIA operation. Only thing is, if Argo wins this year Clooney might be an also-ran next Oscars because its “too soon”. But I expect him to get an Oscar nom for Gravity!

  294. The J Viewer

    I know I didn’t have to do this. However, since it sort of indirectly rubbed off on many others; what I wrote in my first comment (this being second) is self-address and no more no less of it.

  295. I think spielberg is the weak link in Lincoln. They should have chose some good director.

  296. Bryce Forestieri

    Yo

  297. Bryce Forestieri

    O-M-G!!!

  298. JP

    “Had Lincoln gone for sentimentalism and forgettable writing, it would sweep just like Gandhi and The King’s Speech…”

    Well, those attributes didn’t really help WAR HORSE, did they? I don’t know what this lack of Lincoln-support is, but my best guess is that Spielberg is considered so high above basically EVERYBODY in the industry that they simply don’t want to emphasize his power even more, similar to how the Academy is hellbent on ignoring Christopher Nolan’s directorial achievements and Leonardo DiCaprio’s baity, high-profile acting efforts. They are just too damn powerful.

  299. AnthonyP

    Andrew – Sasha does get emotional despite “not minding”. Like when she refused to pick Meryl Streep last year. It’s her passion I love though.
    I jjust don’t copy her picks when I’m filling out my Oscar pools.

  300. Well, “Argo” didn’t deserve this (despite the fact that this film is better than “Lincoln” – it’s still worse than allmost everything else that was nominated) but I still think that this movie can’t win Oscar – because of the lack of the nomination for best director. But if “Argo” wins SAG for best cast and DGA – than I’ll start to think: “Maybe?”. Still – even than they will have to choose someone else for best director and they might vote automatically for both categories for the same film (as they did in 1996, choosing “Braveheart”) and choose film directed by their best director.

  301. Danemychal

    Well, it definitely looks VERY Oscary, and even if Argo wins BP (I still don’t believe it will), Clooney could still win Best Director next year.

  302. REIChdome BACK with Avengeance

    First Antoinette I respect and salute u dedicated contribution over the years. I been around for a few but not as frequently and with as much of a contribution as Uslf.

    Well done I like you respect others opinion and regardless whoever attacks me personally I disregard it after telling them where to go like Uslf.

    No my problem is with the the increasingly messy stew of a institution. That is Hollywood awards season.

    With Argo winning the pga be sure of one thing. Oscar have lost the plot. Something’s should not change namely that a film to b worthy contender should get director picture double at least. I tired of hearing that Affleck was snubbed for director cos of balloting the simple reality I sorry to say is that it more recognized fir it celebrity appeal rather than it substance. There be plenty of cia based operation movies in mid east. Hardly new or breathtahking or inspiring. I woulda much rather zero dark thirty a movie far bolder and. Mre complex and ambitious and original and terrifyingly true to win.

    This year the safe boring choice is Argo purely for the Affleck factor. The Clooney factor .

    Yet here u have Lincoln inspiring by a director sadly at risk of not being justly rewarded for pushing cinematic breakthroughs beyond and since the year saving private Ryan was nominated.

    But take some comfort majority Lincoln supporters ( though u support and preference mean didly squat to osxcar who master the art of behaving like misguided conflicted elitists simply cos the film that deserves to win does not win.

    We willhave more mid east stories like Argo what so special about it? Seriously how many operation movies have been Oscar nominTed bout mid east or released over past decade? Many I wager far superior to the overrated overblown Argo.

    The hurt locker won very recently in 2009 and it was far mre unique and bolder than Argo.

    So it official folks Oscar are a bunch of celebrity hugging elitists. Never mind the fact the Spielberg had his share of snubs or been mre courageous and bolder than most filmmakers reinvents himself for the generation that sees his films, the fact Lincoln took 12 yrs to make and almost as long to write. Or that Lincoln is. The most unique timely and important and positive and inspiring of contenders by far.

    None of that matters as Oscar obsess bout global audience to offset there rating decline domestically as pple in droves get pissed off at the Oscars for not giving a share to the film nominated they Thu k is best.

    Argo win is a win for mediocrity the new ugly and less publicly embraced and accepted face of Oscar. And yet most scar y of all is that we have many mre films like Argo which lends itself from other mid Easter dramas vs. Lincoln a once of event that been embraced tenfold mre globally Han Argo and by critics alike vale the death on common sense and prestige to the film thatcswserve to win but dnt at oscary

  303. kai02139

    What a crazy year.

  304. Bryce Forestieri

    I guess now my only horse in the race is Emmanuelle Riva. Let’s do this.

  305. Nixon,
    we get it. You don’t like Lincoln and don’t want it to win. But some of us do. You don’t have to declare your dislike of the film over and over again under every article. It makes some of us wish there was an ignore button here on AD.

    “They should have chose some good director”? Shit. Wake up, man. He’s Steven Spielberg, one of, if not the greatest director of all time who has been making films since most of us aren’t born. Who are you to go around saying things like that? Show some respect, at least.

    You are saying Lincoln is a bad film. I respectfully disagree. End of story.

  306. Bryce Forestieri

    I predict Riva, too !!! Finally, I thought I was the only one :) I think even if Lawrence wins the SAG tomorrow (IMO Watts is big threat thanks to her high-profile peer-support), Riva will win the BAFTA and then the Oscar…and of course I could be completely underestimating my new favorite actress, Jessica Chastain who could just swoop in and win all three awards. Still, my money is on Riva.

  307. Of course Argo won the producers guild award after all it is a movie about movie producers saving the world. What a joke when there were so many great movies made this year they choose the one that portrays, directors, producers, actors as hero’s saving the world. Typical vain Hollywood starfuckers. No doubt in my mind now it will also win the SAG.

  308. Why does Lincoln keep on losing?

  309. @ MAX- Sorry bro. Accept my apology

  310. Of course, Argo won.

    Babies, use your brain. DGA is in Affleck’s hands.

    The Best Movies of the Year:
    1. The Master
    2. Argo
    3. Life of Pi / The Perks of Being a Wallflower (tie)

    And whit alk respect, the best bad idea?
    Please, don’ t make me laught…
    This fanboy mind lobbing for Linvoln is very booooring… It’s blindness…
    Like in 2008, whit the same fanboy mind for The Dark Knight…
    All we have favorites. But there’s a limit for everithing. A little bit of sense and respect for other movies, please…

  311. Bryce Forestieri

    This disrespect for LINCOLN is appalling. The should be so lucky to call themselves Americans.

  312. @Nixon
    Apology accepted. No hard feelings.

  313. @Fabinho, ‘The Best Bad Idea’ is a reference to the concoction of a faux scifi film to rescue the hostages in Iran. You did see Argo, didn’t you?

  314. Bryce Forestieri

    Is ARGO the non-intellectual pick? You bet you ass

  315. Steven Spielberg is a great director. BUT to call him “the greatest director of all time” shows a lack of understanding of cinema. I know–I used to think this when I was in high school and only had a strong knowledge of popular Hollywood films. When I pursued film studies and only one Spielberg film was taught (which surprised me at first–that film was Jaws obviously), my eyes were opened and knowledge expanded, so I learned why film scholars and academics didn’t exalt Spielberg to the levels they did other directors. It’s an impossible designation, to call someone the greatest of all time for art…but I can assure you, Spielberg’s name is never thrown around for that title.

    —–

    I would LOVE to see Jessica Chastain win. I met her after a performance of The Heiress last week and she is soooo nice. She was hugging everyone who waited (it was soooo cold!!) and was tremendously generous of her time–an absolute pleasure (and the sign of a new actress). I absolutely love her and hope she stays this way. If she doesn’t win this year and Zero Dark Thirty is too hot to carry her to a win, she’ll have plenty of opportunities in the future.

    —–

    Sasha,
    Just in case my original comments get lost. Best Director is a shitfest. It’s anyone’s game, and will be that way up until Oscar night (assuming, as I do and have argued before, that Affleck takes DGA). I suggest you campaign the shit out of who you want to win. BUT BEWARE–Spielberg can lose this race; the Academy does NOT hand out third Oscars lightly over unrecognized competition! If I were you, I’d resurrect your PASSION for Ang Lee, crying when you met him, your wonderful piece on Life Of Pi. Variety’s running a great cover on how Lee has pursued challenging material, how versatile he is and unparalleled. The Brokeback Mountain loss is still in recent memory…some sympathy vote may exist. I’d love to read another piece on him–he may be the best chance to win. Otherwise, when David O. Russell takes it, I don’t want to hear how pissed off you are LOL….

  316. The J Viewer

    Fabinho Flapp,

    “Of course, Argo won.”

    Congrats to you, too. (No sarcasm.) I’ve spotted your comments at times religiously supporting Argo and Affleck.

    My point? I love LOYALTY!

    Cheers. :)

  317. Why Argo won Best Picture Oscar:

    – The Bad Taste de Academy Have
    – Lincoln : Too Divisive
    – Life of Pi : Too Spiritual
    – Les Miserables : Too Musical
    – Beast of… : Too Newcomer
    – Django : Too Bloody
    – Amour : Too Scary
    – Zero Dark Zirthy : Too Bin Laden

    The only two movies that are happys and with a happy ending for Americans are:
    – SLP
    – Argo

    In a year like 2012 that one of thouse films won the Oscar is a shame. BUT the Oscars is a ADICTIVE FUCK JOCKE, so GO LIFE OF PI!!!.

  318. Let’s put it this way, Spielberg is pretty much the ultimate Hollywood director.

  319. luis Burguete

    JOKE :).

  320. @Bryce
    Exactly. You have one of the greatest director of all time helming a film with a relevant and significant subject matter, putting in over a decade of meticulous research prior shooting the film; with the greatest screen actor alive giving one of his best performance portraying the greatest American president of all time; not to mention an impeccable supporting cast with such astounding caliber; plus a Pulitzer Prize-Winner script, and all some people can describe it is with the word “boring”. It makes me sick at times.

    Trivia: The cast and crew of Lincoln has 20 oscars between them

  321. Reno,
    Of course I know it’s a reference . Of one of my favorite lines in whole movie.
    I watched Argo 3 times. :)
    But i can understand irony too. And certainly the title of this post is full of irony.

    The J Veiwer,
    Loyalty is my name. In bad or good times. :)

  322. I’m actually more confused about who will win Best Director than I am over who will win Best Picture.

  323. @KT
    The word “greatest” is subjective. It all depends on perspective and personal taste. There are people who call Stairway to Heaven the greatest song ever created and there are people who say that title belongs to Bohemian Rhapsody instead. Neither is wrong.

    A guy can declare Michael Bay the greatest filmmaker of all time in his opinion and I cannot say he is wrong

    But I have reasons for calling Spielberg the best. For one, he has five films in AFI’s 100 Greatest Films if All Time List, more than any other filmmaker. Also, three of his films(Jaws, ET and Jurassic Park) were once the highest-grossing film of all time on separate occasions respectively. He may not be the most “artsy” of directors, but he is certainly the most well-known, all-around filmmaker both commercially and critically. I bet if you conducted a poll on who is the greatest director of all time, Spielberg will show up on the very top on the list.

    I stand by my case.

    My top five directors:
    1.Steven Spielberg
    2.Martin Scorsese
    3.Alfred Hitchcock
    4.Stanley Kubrick
    5.Christopher Nolan(my fanboyism is clearly showing, but I am sure his name will be legend one day)

  324. I think I am more sure on director than I am on Picture.

  325. “Argo, the most conventional movie of the bunch, wins PGA.”

    @daveylow, As long as Silver Linings Playbook is in the race, Argo isn’t the most conventional movie.

    Affleck’s movie is really, really good, and it looks like Ebert was spot on this year.

    Responding to Bryce about next year’s actress contenders, here’s some I can think of aside from Meryl:

    Kate Winslet – Labor Day
    Jennifer Lawrence – Serena
    Shailene Woodley – The Spectacular Now (may be Supporting)
    Naomi Watts – Diana
    Sandra Bullock – Gravity
    Julie Delpy – Before Midnight (one can dream!)

  326. i’m still on lincoln.
    argo is a shitty movie. sorry for that, but… yes, it is.
    any dimension it portrays was better made by any other movie. my god, ed wood is so much better than argo. my god, any cia movie. burn after reading. any sh*t!
    i just will not believe if this mediocre movie wins.
    how the f*ck an academy that nominates Amour gives its best prize to ARGO?
    because they hate spielberg? because ben affleck was snubbed? my god, fuck this shit. the five nominees were much better directed than any movie that ben affleck PARTICIPATED in his lifetime. (maybe i’m not couting gus van sant. malick, of course, i’m not couting. the rest? for god’s sake.)

    if argo wins best picture, the oscars will finally have turned into the grammys. nothing than a show.
    or maybe it will pay for their sins in the next decade, as hollywood did crap like oliver! and tom jones – then awarding midnight cowboy, french connection, the godfather, one flew, annie hall…

  327. KT:

    Great post, in all respects.

    Just to add to what you said about Spielberg being not being considered the “greatest director”, yeah, he’s not. The Sight & Sound poll from August 2012 didn’t see any of his movies make the top 100 at the critics’ poll. 39 English language films made the list of 100 (actually, 101 were in the 100 per the voting). Hitchcock had 4 films, including #1 Vertigo. Now there’s a candidate for greatest director ever! The other English-language film directors with 2 or more films in the 100 were Buster Keaton, Charlie Chaplin, Orson Welles (3), Michael Powell & Emeric Pressburger, Billy Wilder, Stanley Kubrick, Francis Ford Coppola (3; and for the record, his highest ranked film was Apocalypse Now, which pleased me, I’m not a Godfather fan (sacrilege!)), Martin Scorsese and David Lynch.

    Personally, while one must of course acknowledge that Spielberg has a certain talent, his sensibilities have never matched mine. I feel he uses overblown John Williams scores to evoke emotions. That’s ok to a degree, except when he crosses the line and becomes intentionally manipulative and sentimental. Jaws was an exception, a perfect great score matching the story, but to me, the film was boring (as a kid when it came out, and still now). E.T.? Nice, but c’mon, we all know that E.T. ain’t gonna die half way thru the film, it was string-pulling by him. He destroyed The Color Purple, Empire of the Sun and Amistad by over-directing them, not trusting his audiences, pushing cartoonish portrayals at us rather than real people. I can go on but will spare you. I’m no fan of the Oscars, but its no accident that nobody has ever won an acting Oscar in any of his films, despite the zillions of nominations his movies have received thru the years. He’s very good with kids, but not with adults. Daniel Day-Lewis will become the first, but that’s because Day-Lewis is an all-time great actor giving what is an already iconic performance. None of us know what Lincoln the man sounded like, yet somehow, it seems like that’s what Lincoln must have sounded like! [Though personally as good as he was, I wouldn’t vote for DDL].

    In the end though, Spielberg did a fine, restrained job on Lincoln, until he went and ruined it with the ending. It diminished the achievement, the BAFTA nominating committee got it right in snubbing him. Its truly Tony Kushner’s movie, what a mega-intelligent writer, and the acting ensemble was superb (though to me, James Spader was a distraction; he just didn’t blend in with the times everyone else seemed to).

    If it wins, it will certainly be a heckuva lot better than at least half the films that have won, but that’s not saying much. Argo would be too though. I’m surprised so many on this site are so luke-warm on it. It was such a fun, thrilling, well-directed popcorn munching ride, and it stays with me more than Lincoln. That’s what I think many of the voters are feeling, not just sympathy for the Affleck snub. But is either as inspired as Life of Pi or my #1 film of the year Beasts of the Southern Wild? Most would say yes, but reasonable minds can differ. At least there’s nothing of the low level of Extremely Loud or Blind Side or Crash or Chocolat competing this year (though Les Miz comes close…).

  328. manrico1967

    I called it two weeks ago and I call it again.

    Ben Affleck WILL win the DGA.

    Failing to get a director nod has been the kiss of death for any best picture nominee.

    In this crazy year, Affleck being snubbed might be the edge that ARGO needed.

    Go figure.

  329. Max,
    I won’t say anything about Lincoln be or not the greatest american president in all times…
    But…
    Whem you say the greatest screen actor alive… I didn’t know Dustin Hoffman (or Jack Nicholson or Al Pacino or Robert DeNiro or Peter O’Toole or Robert Duvall) was living Lincoln…

    C

  330. What is anybody talking about. Sight and Sound? Good lord. Spielberg is not an artiste, Spielberg is insanely good at what he does making Hollywood films. The Oscars are not good at awarding artistes, their record is streaky when it comes to rewarding good Hollywood films. I think that is where we should leave it. And if I hear one more thing about that Lincoln ending, I might scream. That would have just been stupid, that walking away window scene.

  331. @Bette
    Sight And Sound? Personally, I don’t really enjoy their picks. Many the films the name “the best” are ones that we admire more than we enjoy. Get this: among the nine Best Picture nominees, only Amour and Beasts of The Southern Wild made it into their annual list.

    Spielberg will always be the greatest for me. His films have been an important part of my life. I could still remember the first time I saw Jurassic Park. The ecstatic wonder I felt when the Brachiosaurus appeared on screen for the first time, with John Williams’ beautiful score ringing in my ears. And I’ll never forget the moment when Elliot’s bicycle took flight in ET, nor the look on Oskar Schindler’s face when he saw the body of the little girl in red. These films will always be a part of me.

    @Fabinho
    Again, the word “greatest” is subjective… But yeah, I reckon those people you named(especially Nicholson) would give DDL a run for his money.

  332. To those who are unfamliar, Sight & Sound is a publication that polls 1,000 world cinema critics and directors once a decade to determine the pantheon of great movies (they have separate lists). Universities look to that poll to determine what will be taught, and those are typically the movies that influence present and future filmmakers who will perhaps create that great art that BRIAN obviously disdains. And its just a great list of hundreds of movies, often obscure, to try and often leave.

    The Oscars are supposed to reward great art. “Best” Picture. Most here know they don’t. Heaven forbid we raise an institution with an infinitely better track record than the Oscars in determining the “best”. If you are not interested in great movies, than why are you even on this site? Isn’t the ultimate end to find great movies to watch and enjoy? Its just bizarre to me that you, Brian, would be so snark because someone raised the most prestigious “best” poll on a website that discusses the so-called best movies, directors, etc. I raise it precisely because the Academy sucks at its self-appointed duties, to pick those “bests”. And to state that there are sources out there other than the Academy and AFI that people might enjoy looking to since film is presumably a passion of most on this site.

    Also, in your dismissive way, you say that Spielberg is not an “artiste”. Sure he is. He’s not my type of artiste, he’s too manipulative and sentimental, but there sure as heck is top tier craft and understanding of film and its history and what he does.

    That walking away window scene would have been exactly the right way to end Lincoln. My ear plugs are in, scream away.

  333. Bette, how can one take S&S poll seriously when at least Schindler’s List isn’t on top 100 of critics?

    In 2005 Empre magazine’s 10.000 readers chose him greatest of all time. Hitchcock was 2nd amd Kubrick 3rd.

    I agree. Greatest director is subjective. For me Spielberg is the greatest.

  334. “Is ARGO the non-intellectual pick? You bet you ass”

    sorry, but just a lazy mind can really think that Argo is a non intellectual choice.

    Argo has more to say about modern cinema than Lincoln. I loved Lincoln, it is a solid film with great performances: it is great classic filmmaking. Nothing wrong or bad with that, it is just something already said and done.

    Argo is more modern: Argo approaches the language of cinema pushing the boundaries and the bonds of fiction, documentary and entertainment. The beginning of Argo is a great statement: Affleck mixes storyboard, real historic footage, inserting of fiction shots to establish the key elements and themes of his movie; he does it in a way that is both compelling and exciting and, yes, intellectually very rich.

    Argo comes along the line traced by great films like The Queen – Zodiac – La Classe – Touching the Void – Caesar must die – Zero Dark Thirty; but Argo is also a great entertainment for worldwide audiences in a way none of the others are. Hollywood movie with a soul and a brain, which is a perfect Best Picture profile.

  335. MAX:

    Thanks for the response. We don’t disagree. Spielberg is the greatest for YOU. Fair enough. You are certainly not the only one who feels that way, I’m just not one of them. All I’m saying is that historically, since they started in 1952, Sight & Sound better represents what is considered to be the true pantheon among film historians and critics. Spielberg isn’t in their top tier. He certainly is at AFI and imdb.

    I disagree that Sight & Sound picks films that we admire more than we enjoy. For me, when I see a brilliantly made and realized film that I admire, I can’t help but typically enjoy it, to be in awe of the artistry on screen, knowing how hard it is to create it (having worked in film). But apart from that, most movies on their list are extremely enjoyable, from Seven Samurai to the Hitchcocks to A Matter of Life and Death to so so many more. I enjoy Some Like It Hot (not nominated at the 1959 Oscars for Best Picture). I also enjoy Ikiru and Passion of Joan of Arc, in a very different way, because even though the stories may be downers, the filmmaking is intoxicating, the stories are visually told and get into and under my skin. Oscar fare like American Beauty, Chicago, Shakespeare in Love, The King’s Speech, not so much.

    As for your Spielberg examples, I agree with the bike past the moon in E.T. But by the time that happened, I was already pissed off and removed from the movie since Spielberg tried to make me think that E.T. was gonna die in the middle of the movie. I’m not stupid, there was no way that was gonna happen, I don’t like being manipulated. I think Spielberg falls short of the top tier at the so-called elitist film critics and historians for precisely that reason. Sentimentality and manipulation are cheap, its more difficult to create art that shows viewers a point of view and allows the audience to think, rather than tells viewers what to think thru such manipulation. Whether it be thru boisterous music (Jurassic Park – how can you not love the score – not even nominated for the Oscar!) or faking the deaths of the lovable leads, I just don’t feel like Spielberg trusts the intelligence of his viewers. Jurassic Park had amazing effects in those dinosaurs, no doubt, it was thrilling to see them, but the intelligence of Michael Crichton’s book was drained from the movie. Where was the science, the dna in the amber, that led to the Park in the first place. Big budget visuals and chases are fun, but I wanted and expected more, the source material sure gave it.

    Again, reasonable minds can differ. But if I may, I suggest you return to the Sight & Sound list and give some more of those movies another chance. I don’t like them all either. Vertigo #1? I don’t get that at all, I don’t even think its his best film (that would be Notorious or Psycho or Rear Window, and his most fun, North by Northwest). But on the other hand, I remember when I first saw Citizen Kane. I admired it more than liked it. But a decade or so later, I tried it again, because I realized I remembered much of it a lot more than most movies I enjoyed more at the time of initial viewing. On the second viewing, I thought it was pretty great. On the third and final, I think its probably the best film ever made (though still not my favorite). Repeated viewings of complex films can be richly rewarding.

    I’m sure Brian is rolling his eyes and is condescendingly disgusted at a seemingly pretentious post about great movies, but that’s his problem. The point in awards, other than viewing pretty dresses, is to figure out how to spend one’s limited movie-going time on what to see. The Academy fails miserably. That they would think Extremely Loud or War Horse (sorry) is better than A Separation or Drive or Melancholia is just bad taste. Worse, I bet most of the filmmakers who are in the Academy know better. But they vote with their wallets, they veer clear of anything too controversial no matter how great (not just Zero Dark Thirty, Brokeback and Do the Right Thing, but back to the beginning, like Kane and High Noon etc.). Its a joke.

  336. Glenn UK

    Wow – I never expected to get up this morning and read that headline. I guess when you come to this site every day and read reports and reports that Lincoln is the one to beat then you just think it is going to happen, even when rooting for something else.

    Why are some people having such a hard time with the Argo win. It was a film which came out of the blocks earlier than most. It had major heat and nothing but Oscar talk when it did come out. Les Mis and Lincoln and to some extent SLP were hovering in the background waiting to open but the thing is Argo was the movie to beat for such a long time. We went through the critics awards season and Lincoln did very little other than for its acting and writing. Lincoln failed at the Globes, which means nothing because The Hurt Locker failed there too.

    And now Lincoln fails at the PGA. Lincoln was a very Oscar baity film – it was bound the pick up plenty of Oscar noms but you can have all the nominations in the world, if there is no strong passion for the film then it will not win and there clearly is more passion for other movies at this time. But the campaigning is still not over. It’s along race. But it feels like another feel good year and a split year and I have been saying this all along.

    This year its time to step away from all your statistics because they mean nothing!

  337. If Argo wins the Oscar, it will be the most undeserving best picture win in recent history, even more undeserving than Crash or Chicago.

  338. Glenn UK

    ^^^ This is the standard statement we hear every year now – yawn!

  339. My god, don’t be so condescending. I know what Sight and Sound is. I wait for the decade changes like everyone. I prefer it to the Oscars by far. Etc, etc, etc.

    But when someone on the PGA thread discussing Spielberg as the greatest director ever when Spielberg is in a tight Oscar race, well, I just don’t think Sight and Sound has much to do with anything. It makes no sense to try and educate on Spielberg’s flaws as they pertain to De Sica. Not in this thread. Not to the extend we must have multiple paragraphs over multiple posts. At least from my point of view. It seems like needless overkill. But yes, let’s simply go with me being a eye-rolling troglodyte.

  340. Argo 9/10
    Lincoln 9/10
    Zero Dark Thirty 10/10
    Silver Linings Playbook 7/10
    Life of Pi 10/10
    Amour 10/10
    Beasts of the Southern wild 9/10
    Les Miserables 7/10
    Django Unchained 7/10

    Crash 1/10

    Please!!!! No one of the nominees this year is near the emptiness, the stupidity of Crash!

  341. Glenn UK

    ^^^ Amen Akumax

  342. Ávila Souza Oliveira

    @Fabinho Flapp

    Tu tens twitter cara?

  343. Incidentally, the problem for me with ending Lincoln as he heads off to the theatre is, incidentally, Bette’s main complaint against Spielberg. It is manipulative. I personally don’t mind manipulation, as long as it is done well and there is a payoff. There would have been no payoff though, we would have simply been left with a happy simple ending (Lincoln did good) with a knowing wink of what was to come. Not quite the whiny Schindler pleading for forgiveness over his spending ways, but within shouting distance. Spielberg has a problem in that he is comfortable with finding the most agreeable ending, and with that shot he had it. but he thankfully went further. Rather than a simplistic nod to the tragicomedy about to unfold off-screen as our hero walked off, not quite into the sunset, but at least the warm glow of Kaminski’s lighting, we get a proper ending. Lincoln’s ending. The tragedy, the full tragedy, of Lincoln is that it is America’s tragedy. What died that day was the force of the man whose political machinations might have redeemed America within his lifetime. And we all were poorer for it. There was no riding off into the sunset, there was simply death and grief and words. His words were great, but as the film showed it was action that was Lincoln’s true power. It would take a century to overcome what died that day. The film ended as it should have. To me.

  344. PaulinJapan

    Every year it’s the same, the front runner is the target for barbed comments. Now it’s Argo, and lots of fools are saying it’s unoriginal, bad, blah blah, the Academy has no taste blah blah. Just take a moment and ask yourselves, “which movie won the most critics prizes this year?”.

  345. Alexander

    I’m not going to wade deeply in this discussion, or, rather, where the discussion is now, because it could go on forever. But I do wish to address the matter that has been batted back and forth in multiple threads lately, “Is Spielberg deserving of a third Best Director Oscar?”

    And, to be perfectly honest, I’m having difficulty in seeing why he wouldn’t be. Let’s not forget, Spielberg has been snubbed in humiliating fashion on more than one occasion. Now, 1975, that was a great year. So his not making it for Jaws among the Best Director nominees was at least understandable, even if Jaws stands as one of the all-time classics of directorial vision, a consummate “director’s picture,” as it were. But no matter. Then there was The Color Purple nonsense, where the film apparently directed itself to a boatload of Oscar nominations but Spielberg himself was shunned, and the film was shut out across the board.

    It’s kind of hilarious to me for a few simple reasons, and one of those is, look at the two films for which he’s won Best Director. Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, both effectively instant classics that changed the way people looked at their subject matter, and the way cinema would go on to comment on them from that point onward.

    Yet this is a director who boasts films like Empire of the Sun and A.I.: Artificial Intelligence; relative to films like Jaws and Close Encounters of the Third Kind and E.T. and Schindler’s List, they’re almost cult classics. And yet how rich they are! Certainly in my view among his very best films. Don’t lose the all-important factor of context. Vertigo wasn’t seen as anything but a commercial and critical dud for years.

    And I just have to laugh at the comments in threads before this and even in this thread, that Spielberg is ceaselessly composing completely safe films that go down as easily as a glass of cold milk after a couple of chocolate chip cookies. Is this why Empire of the Sun, a project left in development by David Lean, requires deeper and more meaningful looks with each passing completed chapter in Spielberg’s artistic evolution? (It’s truly, as some have said, the missing link between E.T. and Schindler’s List, a thorough essaying of Spielberg’s dualistic nature.) How many friends did Spielberg think he was going to win over by making A.I. in Stanley Kubrick’s place? What was this chump looking for easy answers doing when he was making Munich?

    At least the French César Awards recognized Minority Report through nomination, ha.

    Seems to me that Spielberg is fully worthy to be placed alongside Capra and Wyler, for his work is, at once, as vibrantly personal as the former and as arrestingly diverse as the latter, with a filmography that immediately humbles those who don’t belong to the master class of Scorsese, Coppola, Allen, Almodovar, Coen Brothers, Wong, Koreeda, etceteras, etceteras.

  346. great post, Alexander.

  347. After this result, Best Director race has become wide open. Lincoln has almost lost all the major awards up until now and we can say now Spielberg will not win DGA and Oscar again. Who else will win? I still think it will be Haneke getting the directing and screenplay.

  348. If Lincoln fails to win the DGA, then it will be out of the race. BP will be wide open then.

  349. @Bette
    Well, for me, cinema IS the art of manipulation. Even the most subtlest of films manipulates people. Without manipulation, you can’t tell a good story. There would be no suspense, no thrills, no humor – no emotion at all. A film with no audience manipulation is an empty film. Every aspect of a film – the cinematography, the score, the visual effects, the screenplay, direction, the editing…. all are present for the sake of manipulation. Can you imagine what Star Wars would be like sans John William’s epic score? Or Pulp Fiction without Tarantino’s pinpoint directing and Menke’s editing? Or Life of Pi without its gorgeous cinematography and visual candy?

  350. Robin Write

    Without taken anything away from Haneke or Zeitlin {or even O Russel}, the big question at the moment now is:

    How did Affleck not get that Best Director nomination from the Academy?

    Argo has been in favour and winning this or that throughout the race now. I mean, this is not the same as when Luhrmann or Nolan didn’t get nominated as Moulin Rouge and Inception were pretty much out of the race at that stage. Plus they were movies that were likely to take some technical gold.

    What now for Argo? Has anyone considered that the PGA could in reality be the last thing they win? I doubt that is the case, but still. Did voters think Affleck was so obvious that they went with an alternative? Did they just decide Argo was not as well directed as Beasts, Amour, Linings? Did they not even consider the direction when voting? That can’t be the case as the movie has been swimming along nicely {without haters} and has been well liked. Am I one of the only ones that think Affleck’s direction was one of the strongest chances of gold?

  351. “You guys are still so adamant. Lincoln is a boring movie without any soul in it. ”

    Sigh.

  352. Terometer

    No surprise. Lincoln had been assassinated long long ago. Some people just don’t accept it. They ask for their own humiliation. haha.

  353. @Vince Smetana-I fell asleep but to repond to your question, I’ll quote from a very recent article in Time about ZDT:

    ” title card at the beginning of Zero Dark Thirty says that it is based on “first hand accounts of actual events.” And Bigelow and Boal have given multiple interviews explaining that the movie is a journalistic account of the hunt for bin Laden for which they performed their own research. This is a far cry from the standard Hollywood disclaimer that a movie is “based on real events.”

    Let’s face it. ZDT received a huge awards push based on it’s alleged importance, that it was the unflinching historical account of the greatest manhunt in history. Jessica Chastain got a similar push for her portayal of a supposedly real unsung American hero. If it’s now just a movie, a dramatization, then all those considerations have to be thrown out the door. The filmmakers have backtracked from their initial inflated claims.
    So I’m quite happy that Argo won. I’m a history buff. I just think ZDT’s creators misused history for their own self-aggrandizement. They took a complicated historical event that is still being assessed and came up with the most awards ready gloss possible. If they had made no overinflated claims to start out with then the criticism the film has drawn would not have happened because people would know it was a fiction as opposed to being told that after the fact.

  354. Having said all that, nothing will be settled for Best Picture until the Oscars are announced. Argo, Lincoln, ZDT and others are all still in the hunt.

  355. Well, this is clear.

    Entertaining drama/thriller + Clooney + Affleck + Arkin + Hollywood saves the day + box office + Afflecks dir snub + preferential balloting = likely win ??

    I thought Argo was quite good. Solid. A likely best pic nominated film. But then a host of Oscar contenders got released that didn’t disappoint and actually surpassed Argo, in my estimation. Great films, challenging films, some of them being very accessible and enjoyable, to go along with their greatness. But Argo is definitely enduring.

  356. This pity party for Affleck is getting old. At least SLP didn’t win. Could be worse…

    Unfortunately the worse will probably happen tonight.

    ZDT >> all the rest.

  357. Well I was right again! I think that the best thing that happened to Ben this year is not being nominated for best director at the Oscars. Now he is going to get all the votes at everything.. the golden globes.. the PGA.. and most importantly is the DGA, he is sooo going to win that one!
    Will it win best pic at the Oscars? Now that is a problem.. Because how can it get sympathy votes from the same people who didn’t nominate him for best director?

  358. Don’t be too down Sasha. The best movie of the year rarely, or never, wins the Oscar, mediocrity rules the Academy.

    Argo will be forgotten in a year or two, the same way The King’s Speech, The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire, Crash, Chicago etc have all been forgotten. It’s a good film, just not a great one worthy of awards.

    Oliver won the Best Picture Oscar the year that 2001 A Space Odyssey was released. 2001 was not even nominated. That tells you everything you need to know about the Oscars.

  359. @Ramiro – It is quite clear that AMPAS chose a different route this year compared with all the guilds and critic groups. Argo, Lincoln can lose BP and some other film can win. So we all have to be ready for the surprises at oscar night.

  360. Well, well. The French Connection…I mean, Argo.

    I really don’t see this as a sympathy vote, but a tip to good, old fashioned moviemaking. Nice one for Clooney since that last couple were near misses. I doubt it will translate to the Oscar BP, however, unless that little good luck charm nobody has mentioned yet (Argo’s Hollywood-related storyline) works – again.

    SAG is still a four-way race (Argo, SLP, Lincoln, Les Mis), and it, too, won’t impact the Oscar BP. It works as a jinx as often as not. None of these four wouuld surprise me.

  361. Robin Write

    Quick SAG question. Am I right that the ceremony is in about 4 hours, but it is not televised for about another 12 hours??!!

  362. Bob Burns

    I will say it for the fiftieth time here….. Warner is an underrated Oscar player….. when they have an actual candidate. Have said so since the Denzel win.

    If SLP wins tonight we’re looking at TWC vs Warner with two equally OK candidates.

  363. @ Winston,

    The filmmakers of Zero Dark Thirty said it was based on first hand accounts. They also said it is a movie and not a documentary. I don’t see how these two phrases contradict themselves.
    Constructing a dramatized storyline to make the movie accessible to a broader audience doesn’t imply being historically inaccurate.

    You write: “I just think ZDT’s creators misused history for their own self-aggrandizement. They took a complicated historical event that is still being assessed and came up with the most awards ready gloss possible.”

    Have you seen the film? From which part of Zero Dark Thirty do you get “awards ready gloss”? From the opening scene in which they present the main female character with an unbearable scene of torture? Very crowd pleasing and awards magnet!
    No filmmaker is less deserving the “self-aggrandizemen” card than K Bigelow, she made brave hard choices from A to Z making this great piece of cinema that is Zero Dark Thirty.

  364. I dont know why many people here act like this was a big surprise. Argo was one of the favorites/frontrunners before PGA, wasnt it? I mean I would be surprised if Beasts or Django or even Les Miz won. But Argo, no surprise.

  365. Glenn, it is not only a standard statement that Argo is an undeserving winner. I really think that the movie is not only “not great” but quite bad, and I could give you several reasons for that. I have seen it twice. Just an example: The characterization of the hostages is really flat und most of the dialog between them (“I think I will die”) is unecessary because completely predictable. And there is no need to bring up the story with Mendez` wife.

  366. “So I’m quite happy that Argo won. I’m a history buff. I just think ZDT’s creators misused history for their own self-aggrandizement. They took a complicated historical event that is still being assessed and came up with the most awards ready gloss possible. ”

    God, I’m tired of the attacks by the “truthies” on ZDT. Argo played faster and looser with the facts in the interests of dramatic effect than ZDT, so much so that Affleck agreed and changed the epilogue card at the end of the film.

    Facts are simply devices used to move a story; sometimes they are enhanced and sometimes they are simplified so as not to interfere with pace or intent. SLP was not ripped from a journal on mental health, Les Mis is not gleaned from definitive accounts of 18th Century France, and Life of Pi isn’t a handbook for survivng a shipwreck. Lincoln dramatizes just as much as Amour does, Beasts of the Southern Wild is as realistic and truthful as Django Unchained.

    History buffs, please, take all of your Hollywoood films with a grain of salt. They are in the business to entertain and sometimes ask questions, not answer them.

  367. “The characterization of the hostages is really flat und most of the dialog between them (“I think I will die”) is unecessary because completely predictable.”

    In my opinion Darko you are misreading the film.

    I say that also the characterization of Mendez is thin, but it is clearly a choice. Affleck wants to reconstruct the facts dramatizing only the unfolding of the events and works on tension and suspense. What’s great here is the balance between docu and drama. It would not have worked as it does with a more classic development of characters and conflicts among them.

  368. Well I just got up and ran as quick as possible to my iPad to read who won the PGA, going in i felt it would be Lincoln Argo or SLP, I’m thrilled that Argo won! I love this movie and I’m so happy for Ben Affleck. He was so nice to us on Toronto and even though for me LINCOLN and Argo are tied on my list, I’m just ecstatic!

    I still think Lincoln will win tonight for the sag ensemble. I really feel it has the best cast of any movie this year.

  369. Danemychal

    Robin Write – It’s 6:14 am in Hollywood right now. You aren’t really suggesting that SAG takes place well before noon, are you? I hope you aren’t. It is broadcast live. In America, the BAFTAS happen early in the AM and are later broadcast on BBC America in prime time.

  370. Jack Traven II

    First there were the Les Mis-haters, then came the Lincoln-haters and the SLP-haters. Now there are the Argo-haters crawling out of their tear-flooded holes.

    Wow, we’re all quite a bunch of whiny, conceited, envious, resentful people, aren’t we? Why is that? Because we’re all high. We’re all addicts – addicted to a little drug called Oscar. It even goes thus far that some of us don’t care about other people’s feelings anymore. They call them assholes, blame them for not being intellectual enough, recommend them a visit to the doctor – and that just because of holding differing views on films.

    This year’s Oscar race is slowly but surely more and more similar to the events that took place 150 years ago – a lot of debating and bargaining throughout, far off from a successful decision, let alone a decision that could please everyone.

    But maybe, despite the PGA’s pick for BP, in the end – just like Lincoln’s successful promotion of the 13th amendment – Spielberg’s Lincoln might prevail nonetheless. What would certainly be a tearful happy ending for some of us (including those who basically seem to despise happy endings).

    ;-)

  371. Steven Spielberg is not the greatest director ever. No no and no

    1) Yes Spielberg introduced the box office hysteria with Jaws back in the days
    2) Yes Spielberg has made some incredible FX in some of his movies
    3) Yes Spielberg is well known both nationally and internationally
    4) Yes Spielberg has been nominated and won several Oscars
    5) Yes Spielberg is one of the few high power directors in USA and can greenlight almost all projects

    Still compared to David Lynch, Haneke, Stanley Kubrick, Akiro Kurosawa, Ingmar Bergman, David Fincher and soon Christopher Nolan and Darren Aronofsky, to me Spielberg will never be the greatest. He is simple not an autuer in my eyes. Spielberg is grand and pompus American director with great talent.

  372. wow…so now Argo is getting attacked? Last week it was Silver Linings Playbook and now Argo winning is a travesty and would be the worst Oscar winner in history? I think we all need to take a chill pill. It’s just an award ladies and gentlemen. Love the movies you love regardless if they win big awards or not. It doesn’t invalidate your love of the movie if they don’t win.

    For all of you bitching about Sasha’s passion for Lincoln, are you brand new? Sasha has been passionate about her choices for years now (sometimes to a fault) but that’s what I love about this site. You come here and have a real discussion with real film lovers.

    What I will say to Sasha though is…You can’t stop what’s coming…

  373. Manuel, I don’t know what is your definition of the word auteur but Spielberg wrote the screenplays if Close Encounters and A.I – 2 masterpeices.

  374. “Argo will be forgotten in a year or two, the same way The King’s Speech, The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire, Crash, Chicago etc have all been forgotten. It’s a good film, just not a great one worthy of awards.”

    Mark, have they really been forgotten? Not on this site at least. Specially The King’s Speech!!

  375. Robin Write

    @ Danemychal

    Yeah that’s what I thought, as I am in the UK and usually have to stay up past midnight for the awards shows. Just wondering why the Awards Calendar on this site says a.m. and why the official SAG site is counting down to what I think will be 9 a.m. LA time…

    Probably making myself look very stupid now…

  376. rufussondheim

    Bryce – Ezra Miller would likely be a great lead for A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius. It’s been a decade since I’ve read the book so it’s hard for me to make a firm decision, but to me Ezra Miller is the best young actor out there that I know has a wide range.

    ———–

    Bette, please post more often – Between You and KT and the history lessons of Marie, I feel like I am getting a great liberal arts education for free when I come to this site!

    ————-

    Argo has a great central character. I think most people miss it because outside of a scene or two you are shown rather than told. And to me that’s great filmmaking.

    By the end of the movie I was struck by how full and affecting Ben Affleck was in his portrayal of Tony Mendez. I loved the thrilling scenes, I loved the dissection of American Foreign Policy, I loved the glimpses into Tehranian culture at the time, I loved the stress the hostages experienced, but most of all I loved the character of Tony Mendez. Watching him with his son you learn of his sacrifice and how he will never be able to tell his son (or his wife) what he does with most of his time. That’s the real heartbreaking work that’s staggering.

    Argo isn’t currently in my top 10, I think it’s pretty cheap in all of its close calls, all I can do is roll my eyes at every single one that clearly never happened (the film also has issues with time zones that I never see criticized) and I consider that a major flaw, but everything else about the film is expertly done. And while it’s tied for third with Life of Pi (behind ZDT and Les Miz) on my personal choices, I certainly won’t look back years from now and put it as a bad choice. (I think it’s a choice that will rank in the 70 to 80th percentile overall)

  377. I’m sorry but ZDT was initially portrayed as journalism. The problem is that every single source since (The Senate, The CIA, journalists) have subsequently said that it was not accurate, and not just about the torture issue. That’s what prompted the walk back about the film not being a documentary. It was a fiction that passed itself off as journalism and got a massive amount of awards love on that basis.
    It still may win. Sad but true.

  378. I just typed a whole paragraph about how I was OK with Argo being the frontrunner, but that I see it only winning 3 or 4 Oscars total, only to get a “please enter required fields like Name and Email” (which I did). So I lost it. Oh well.

  379. @Aris…..what makes you say Argo will be forgotten, and what proof do you have that Kings Speech and the rest you list have been forgotten? Should we go buy video sales? You should look at the sales and see how it was far from being forgotten. Maybe forgotten by you, which is certainly your opinion.

  380. @Aris….my bad….I meant to dirrect my comment @mark…..Aris…..you and I are in total agreement! The films you listed…I have seen them all AGAIN in the past 6 months……they are all far from forgotten!

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