“We are homesick most for the places we have never known.”
― Carson McCullers
We knew it was going to be a crazy year because for the first time in 65 years of DGA/Oscar history the Oscar nomination ballots were turned in before the DGA nominees were announced. For a weary and busy Academy, the DGA can often provide a guidepost on how to vote. Usually there are one or two names that don’t match, but they’re not usually the two strongest contenders in the race. That was unusual. This is partly because Academy voters were flying blind, without the DGA, PGA, WGA and ACE Eddie. They had only the films they’d seen and knew they liked to consider as evidence. Not the powerful expert testimony of a voting body as big and powerful as the Directors Guild.
This experiment in accelerated deadlines could have gone either way. It could have confirmed to us what many assumed — that everyone votes roughly at the same time and they all vote for roughly the same things. Or it could show how very much the Academy voters lean on the major guilds. I think today it revealed the latter.
But the way it went was that two films with deep guild support and precursor heat across the board, including numerous critics awards and DGA nominations, both missed Best Director at the Oscars — Ben Affleck for Argo and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty. Surely, these were the two biggest shocks of the day, and completely unpredictable. We always say we want surprises but what happens when those surprises don’t turn out the way we want them to?
My best advice to Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow is to look at Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg. These two are embattled veterans of Hollywood and the Oscar race and both have been left out many times. Both have lost in crucial ways, in humiliating ways. Both are directors with career peaks that mark two of the most contentious Oscar years in history: Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare in Love and Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash. Look at them now. Look where they stand today. They’ve both weathered the storms and emerged to once again direct two of the best films of their careers.
Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg represent the resilience of artistic evolution that can come from suffering these kinds of losses. Defeat is not always a bad thing.
There will be many explanations given for why Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck were left off the list. The first and most compelling reason, to me, was the hasty date change by the Academy — in Bigelow’s case especially, the urgency forced a premature verdict based on fast first impressions even faster knee-jerk backlash. But the second reason is more basic and nothing new. It may simply be that films by other directors are more emotionally moving. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour and deeply touching, unforgettable films. Add to that Life of Pi and even Silver Linings and you have a group of four found ways to make audiences respond emotionally. Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are visionary, outstanding works of art. It is too bad that their directors’ nominations came at the expense of two great filmmakers this year.
Bigelow has already made DGA history by being the first woman to be nominated for two DGA awards. But we can’t lay blame on sexism and leave out the thorny politics involved in Zero Dark Thirty. We really can’t because the politics made an enormous difference this time. Like it or not, this profound controversy has become one of 2012’s strangest hallmarks — that Zero Dark Thirty found itself square in the middle of an ongoing war of ideology and interpretations of history. Bigelow is the one, sadly, who has received most of the scorn. And yet, we can’t even say these factors are the whole reason for Zero Dark Thirty’s disappointing showing. At the end of the day, the directors that did get in made films that appealed to the heart in undeniable ways, something Zero Dark Thirty and Argo don’t try to do. In a year where it felt like hot-button politics would drive the zeitgeist, the year has instead turned to focus on relief — films that offer up a catharsis. So the two stories about the middle east became, perhaps, too sensitive to touch, and the tales that illuminated the spirit were suddenly more attractive. Strange, that.
The rickety, imperfect masterpiece that is Lincoln took the lead today with 12 nominations, deserving every one. Lincoln is about so many things. It is distinctly American and is the work of three equally vital sources of inspiration. Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book, but also her living memorial of Abraham Lincoln himself, done right over a period of many years. Tony Kushner’s screenplay written and rewritten, down from 300 pages to just one pivotal moment in Lincoln’s presidency and in American history. And a director who has come a long way since the old days of haunting backlots with his super-8 and his baseball cap. Spielberg was so careful this time around to not include so many overly sentimental flourishes but instead let the story speak for itself.
It is not surprising, at the end of the day, that this film is leading nominations across the board.
But that doesn’t mean Lincoln is our winner. There are many different ways the race could go from here on out. All stats and precedents could be tossed in a year when the entire process was thrown into disarray. Here are just some of the weird things that have happened this year that have never happened before:
- Oscar ballots were turned in before the DGA, PGA, WGA and ACE announced
- BAFTA decided for the first time ever to vote only from individual branches, with no “long list”
- Oscar voters voted only on the films they were able to see which, with less time to dig down the stack of screeners, might mean they voted without having seen everything.
- The kerfuffle with online voting — who knows how that may or may not effected voting in the end.
- Usually Critics Choice ballots would be cast AFTER Oscar nomination so tonight we might see Kathryn Bigelow and Zero Dark Thirty win, even though Bigelow is not even nominated for an Oscar. That disconnect could cause a ripple effect and could maybe impact Zero Dark Thirty’s awards in other categories down the road.
- The DGA now has only two contenders who’ve gone on to be nominated for the Oscar so really, the Critics Choice prize can probably only go to either Ang Lee or Steven Spielberg — but what if it doesn’t? What if it goes to someone else, like Tom Hooper or Bigelow or Afleck? Could that signal enough strength for an eventual Best Picture win for those films, even without a Director nod? If it comes down to precedent, we know those upsets are rare.
As of now, only one film has gathered every component a Best Picture winner needs, and I’m not even going to touch the critics awards. A SAG ensemble nod, WGA, DGA, PGA certifiction, and probably ACE Eddie (tomorrow those nominations come out), and the most nominations heading into the race. Nominations in key categories: Picture, Director, Actors, Screenplay, Editing. The films with all those bases covered is Lincoln.
Second to Lincoln would be Ang Lee’s Life of Pi because it also has WGA, DGA, PGA and probably ACE Eddie. It has no acting nominations and wasn’t nominated for the SAG, which makes it a LONG SHOT — an exception that carries a logical asterisk. *(a film about a sole survivor doesn’t leave much room on the boat for an ensemble to shine).
After that, there are really only three other movies that can win, based on stats, and those would be Beasts of the Southern Wild, Amour and of course, Silver Linings Playbook.
With key nominations for Silver Linings Playbook in Picture, Director, Acting (all four categories), Editing this film has the stuff to go all the way. It could win the SAG ensemble, the Globe for musical/comedy, maybe even the Producers Guild. It could win Best Picture and Director or some combination therein. But Silver Linings lacks the Globes nod for Director AND Russell got left out of the DGA nominations. That puts Silver Lining at a disadvantage already, perhaps too crucial to overcome, though not impossible.
Any other potential winners must prevail without a director’s nomination. It’s not impossible, it’s just harder, and it goes against 84 out of 85 years of Oscar history. But this is a strange year anyway so it’s possible we have to disregard precedent entirely and could see an Oscars like we’ve never seen before. For those of you who are hoping for something like that, if there ever was a year it could happen this could be it. Be careful what you wish for.
The Best Actress race feels like it’s been severely shaken up. True, with four acting nominations it doesn’t seem like Silver Linings will go home without winning one of those — it could win any one of them, in fact, even Best Actor. But I have to think, and agree with In Contention’s Kris Tapley, that at this point it’s Emmanuelle Riva’s to lose. She will be the oldest Oscar nominee but more importantly, she gave the best and most central performance. It’s a long shot, I realize, but with so much broad support for Amour Riva has just become an essential force to be reckoned with. Jennifer Lawrence could be Silver Lining’s one big win but it is probably down to those two.
Jessica Chastain could benefit if the buzz on Zero Dark Thirty reverses itself to make up for perceived slights. And that could happen if, say, Zero Dark Thirty wins tonight’s Critics Choice awards and Bigelow gets a standing ovation and another chance at the mic. Without a DGA nomination, sympathy could build for Chastain to be Zero Dark’s big win.
As for the sudden shock today over the absence of Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck, I am not really sure that I can invoke the dread topic of sexism without noting another another hopeful nominee — and that’s Ava DuVernay for Middle of Nowhere. As enthusiastically advocated as I and many others did, her name was nowhere to be found in an original screenplay category of all white men. Sexism, racism — these forces are deeply ingrained in our awards race, in Hollywood and in America. Yet you’ll not find many voices of outrage to decry the diss for DuVerna. And that is because the critics failed to raise her up to the heights that they did Bigelow and Zero Dark Thirty.
Did Kathryn Bigelow direct one of the best films of 2012? I think so. Did Affleck deliver with Argo ? Absolutely. But I also think Middle of Nowhere was, and Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour. 2012 was an embarrassment of riches across the board. This is a year most of us will never forget, from the extraordinary range of brilliance in the race, to the way the race has veered beyond expectations so far. Something tells me we are not done being surprised.
Jack, I don’t think people ‘hate’ SLP so much as feel that perhaps it may be the inferior film. It’s good, well-acted……a nice little story. But even my niece, who loved the film and performances, feels that there is a big difference between it and say….Life of Pi, Lincoln Beasts….
It’s the feel-good Oscar film – every year has one. But it just doesn’t have the weight of the others.
And by the way …
Irony: People who (seem or pretend to) have the highbrow ability to recognize a deep and meaningful film but actually lack the manners to get their opinion concerning another – in their eyes inferior – film across properly.
😉
I did a lot of thinking since my last comment. (It’s sometimes better to put mind in gear before opening mouth. ;-))
Regarding the back and forth concerning the director snubs I would say that the reason why Kathryn Bigelow was snubbed might very well have something to do with sexism among the predominantly male members of the Academy. Why? Because most commenters here already believe that this is not the case. I know it sounds contradictory. But the fact that the Academy already honored a female director (ironically the very same woman this year’s current controversy is about) means that this decades-long wall of injustice doesn’t need to be taken down anymore. What means again that the Academy could actually go back to business and only nominate male directors. And nobody could blame them for not nominating/honoring female directors (anymore), right? Well, lots of comments here seem to prove that correct. Superficially seen it might be true. But given the fact that the amount of women having been nominated in the BD category over the last 85 years is vanishingly low, this appears to be pretty ridiculous. … And the reason why Ben Affleck also wasn’t nominated might have to do with his political views or the fact that most of the members just don’t seem to like him (anymore – since he already won an Oscar). He just seems to be this year’s Christopher Nolan in a way.
And yet another thing:
The apparently rising and exaggerating hate towards Silver Linings Playbook is sheer …, wow, words fail me. Alongside the superb and convincing performances I think that SLP greatly mirrors our society (which seems to be on the verge of failure), symbolically as well as directly: its protagonist’s previous stay in a mental institution with all the medication and the racial slur causing the fight prior to the football game are perfectly representing how we are mostly kept still (e.g., regarding political decisions) and dumbed down. And to see someone trying to break from something like that and start a new life in the end is really more than encouraging. And that should actually be something everyone can relate to. And, well, cheer for. But as it seems …
@Jason
I do believe Zooey doesn’t see the Academy giving a third Oscar to DDL in a short span of time (23 years overall-Jack Nicholson won three Oscar in 22 years) because it took Meryl nearly 30 years to get a third win overall and a second in lead.
But the members don’t think that way. They’ll give it to DDL because they love him and he has just the right “timing”.
That’s what’s all about at the Oscars.
At least she was considered, or there was talk of her movie being nominated…and it her ((((second)))) film…some new white writer/directors might not have even got there that quick
I saw Life of Pi last night, and I think that Suraj Sharma should have gotten much more awards attention than he has. I would have nominated him over Cooper, for sure.
I saw Life of Pi last night, and I think that Suraj Sharma should have gotten much more awards attention than he has. I would have nominated him over Cooper, for sure
I wish this was a tweet so I could RT it.
great way to end it.
2012 was a wonderful year in film. Certainly one of my favorites.
In all the washup of the nominations, I am very glad for one thing. Pheonix
@Zooey: How do you not see Day-Lewis winning??? Are you kidding me? LINCOLN was a success BECAUSE of his performance. He is, after all, playing the most famous President in US History and one that has been imitated endlessly (on the level of Elvis). And he did it without going over the top or being hammy. How is LINCOLN winning best picture without him winning actor? Explain please. And don’t tell me Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman are gonna steal this from him. It doesn’t matter if it’s his third Oscar ,he’s winning this on merit alone and not dumb politics or “personality on E!” standards. If anyone beats Lewis it will stand as one of the biggest injustice days in Oscar history. Cooper should be happy Hawkes didn’t beat him out to the fifth spot. Jackman was great in Les Mis, but not as great as Lewis. The support clearly lies in Spielberg’s movie. I don’t care how many secret handshakes Harvey is passing along in the hallways, he ain’t getting Cooper a win.
‘As far as “Argo” goes, I can see how some may have found it solid and well-made, but lacking a certain passion and emotion that the other nominees have. But, hey, it’s all subjective. One person’s masterpiece is another’s snooze-fest. The winner will most likely be “Lincoln.” My personal favorite, “Life of Pi,” which I found more emotionally satisfying than Speilberg’s respectful, but a little reserved, effort.’
While Lee has always been one of my favorite directors – he is one of the most imaginative and surreal filmmakers – Lincoln was the emotional experience/passion project of the year for me.
But I agree with your point. Argo, imo, lacked the gravitas of both of those films and others on the noms list, so all this Affleck sympathy is silly to me.
As as Bigelow’s “snub,” one thing not mentioned in Stone’s article is the fact that Bigelow won an Oscar in the Best Director category only three years ago. Many voters feel the desire (rightly or wrongly) to “spread the wealth around” when it comes to Oscars. And with so many other strong contenders they simply may have felt that, all things being equal, they wanted equally deserving and talented directors to be recognized. Bit it does suggest that “Zero” is probably not the Best Picture contender many had thought it was. As far as “Argo” goes, I can see how some may have found it solid and well-made, but lacking a certain passion and emotion that the other nominees have. But, hey, it’s all subjective. One person’s masterpiece is another’s snooze-fest. The winner will most likely be “Lincoln.” My personal favorite, “Life of Pi,” which I found more emotionally satisfying than Speilberg’s respectful, but a little reserved, effort.
‘ It’s a shame for Bigelow and Affleck, I agree, but (besides Russell), who would you drop?’
Exactly Steve.
I liked Argo, and it’s not like it wasn’t recognized by Oscar. Affleck was not ‘snubbed’ – it was riding such a momentum of ‘it’s a lock’ that when Affleck didn’t get the coveted BD nod, people were surprised. That is all. Does Affleck – and his Hollywood buddies – honestly believe he was more deserving than Zeitlan for instance? Because that would have most likely been the name dropped with an Affleck nod. Argo was well-made and entertaining but it was not as accomplished, IMO, as Lincoln, Life of Pi, Beasts etc…..
Other directors have been passed over for much stronger, weightier films.
It took Eastwood, Beatty years to get respect by Oscar…..
Ben, Argo was not Reds, so get a grip.
It would be nice to see Spielberg winning best director again! For the best actress race, as long as it’s not J-Lawrence, I would be happy. I really think SLP is an above-average rom-com, that’s it, and nothing more. However, based on her popularity, she could win this easily if today is the telecast. I would be ecstatic if Watts win in an Adrian Brody surprise! I know Sasha says Riva’s chances are high, but I just don’t really see it even though she gave one of the best performances this year. So Hathaway is probably 80% close to winning her first Oscar? Would PSH win again (this time supporting) for the Master?
So many tantalizing storylines this season on…”The Oscar”!
I’ve got a qs which needs answering, or debating. Since Network in 1976 no film has won 3 acting categories, this year has provided us with 2 movies which have the ability to do so.
Lincoln – Best actor is DDL’s to lose, Tommy Lee Jones could very well win supporting actor. Sally Field is the one to watch, Hathway seems ready to win, but can Sally Field win her 3 for 3. If anyone can beat Hathway now its Field, will the voters reward her for her career span, she’s very much respected amongst the actors. Or did the voters cried more for Hathway.
Silver Linings Playbook – This is more of a longshot since bradley cooper and jackie weaver are no way near winning. DeNerio could also win, but his previous wins are for raging bull and godfather II, ver far from the character he’s playing. Lawrence has a pretty good shot for winning. And in the end SLP has Harvey Weinstein and we all know how that influences the race.
I was really sad to see Middle of Nowhere snubbed. It was my favorite movie of the year. @Tony, I’m sure you’re not suggesting that the quality of movies is judged by the box office. How many blockbusters are in the nominees?