Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.
I would love to see Hoffman get his 2nd Oscar or DeNiro his 3rd, but on a basis of who WILL win – either Tommy Lee Jones or Christoph Waltz. I think the former will prevail.
Anyone but Alan Arkin. If he wins I’m done following the Oscars. Worst joke ever.
I’ll go Waltz. He’s helped out by category fraud so his performance is probably the most vivid. And fans of Leo and SLJ will PROBABLY tip toward Waltz as a sort of Django umbrella vote.
Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz–the frontrunners–both play white men who put everything on the line for the sake of fighting slavery.
I just hate Tommy Lee Jones so I don’t even want to imagine him taking him. But he is the most probable. But everyone is underestimating the power of Hoffman, he gave the best performancr and he already won BFCA. If Arkin wins, it’ll be a joke.
Flip a coin and hope it doesn’t come up Arkin.
Personally, I think Arkin is more deserving this round than when he won for Little Miss Sunshine. Waltz and Hoffman are both leads of their respective films. I just don’t think Jones is the most deserving supporting actor from Lincoln – that would be James Spader. However, my pic is Robert De Niro. SLP was by no means my favourite film of last year, but it was so refreshing to see Mr. De Niro act again – he was quite brilliant as Pat Sr. and I hope he wins.
I think Deniro for now. But I really feel like it could be any, with Arkin in a close 5th.
Waltz–won the same award too recently for too similar a movie
Hoffman–people didn’t love “The Master,” and Joaquin was better
DeNiro–he’s just not good enough in it
Arkin–my brain cannot fathom how this became a nomination
By process of elimination: Tommy Lee Jones. Though Hoffman as #2.
Um, no. I liked Arkin’s character but there is no way he is more Deserving in Argo than he was in LMS. Both performances are really aided by the script though. It’s easy to imagine another actor being nominated for the same role in LMS and in Argo for that matter. They were given great lines. It would be hard to imagine another actor in the role inhabited by PSH.
I’m not sure about Jones–he’s been getting his fair share of critics awards, but I’m wondering how popular the guy is among his peers? He just comes across as such a grump, but maybe he’s different with his co-stars. Waltz won fairly recently, and his speeches are as dry as melba toast. Arkin has a lot of spunk and is incredibly likeable on and off screen, and de Niro is closer to being back in form than he’s ever been (though, really, he has one “emotional” scene in the film and the rest is just a lot of yelling and gesturing). My money is on Hoffman, though–“category fraud” or not (not like that hasn’t been around since the supporting category was added), his performance is as nuanced and powerful as you’ll ever see on film.
This is the least exciting category to me. All former winners, two of them virtual category fraud because they are leads, all of them carried in on the coattails of a BP nom and no breakout performances.
Imagine how much more interesting Best Supporting Actor would be with names like Jason Clarke, Eddie Redmayne, Tom Holland, Irrfan Khan, Ezra Miller, Dwight Henry, James Spader, Tom Hardy, or one of the Broadbent/Sturgess/Whishaw triad.
If I HAD to pick from this bunch, I’d close my eyes to category fraud and go with PSH, begrudgingly. Frankly, I’m a bit tired of this lot, though.
^Agreed, steve50. Generally, boring. I’d vote PSH, because there’s no question he gives the best performance of this bunch.
What about actors stretching their talents vs playing themselves? Arkin is Arkin and Jones is Jones and Waltz ispretty much doing the Nazi officer from Inglorious Basterds,Hoffmann generally does Hoffmann ,but DiNiro is not doing the ususl,he is trying something different and good for him.
3 words: Robert De Niro
21 years after his last nomination, I say give him his 3rd Oscar! He deserves it, great turn in SLP.
I’d rank them
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman.- he’s actually co-lead
2. Tommy Lee Jones.- he can do no wrong as an actor and a person
3. Christoph Waltz.- another co-lead
4. Robert De Niro.- far from his legendary stuff but fair enough
5. Alan Arkin
Just to name a few truly great SUPPORTING turns that should have been in:
Michael Fassbender, PROMETHEUS
Ezra Miller, THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER
Jason Clarke, ZERO DARK THIRTY
I could go on, but you catch my drift.
Yeah, right. Would’ve indeed been interesting to see a newcomer like Dwight Henry being nominated instead of, well, Alan Arkin (although I liked Argo very very much I think that it was really more of an ensemble achievement, where no one actually stuck out).
But what really strikes me is that Leo’s few moments shown in the trailer seemed more deserving than Arkin’s entire performance. The Academy really seems to not want to award or even nominate DiCaprio at all cost.
Should win De Niro, the most deserving.
Somewhat similar roles. Neither Oscar material, but still just to give you some perspective:
Tommy Lee Jones, CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER > Alan Arkin, ARGO
geez – if arkin hadn’t have won for Little Miss Sunshine, people would be raving about him in Argo. If there are any complaints – and really, this isn’t a bad line up – it should be for Hoffman and Waltz who have both been nominated for lead performances.
Another deserving contender: Christopher Walken, SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS
–seriously, one of the best performances of the year in my book. Walken’s best in a long time. Hilarious, bizarre, unpredictable, loveable.
I kinda wish there was an option for “I have no idea”. This one is the real head scratcher, imo.
If it were my award to give, I’d give it to Tommy Lee Jones. I thought he practically stole the film from DDL. PSH was equally as good, but as previously stated he’s co-lead, and I’d place him 2nd as lead actors go this year.
On a sidenote did Chris Nolan announce his next directorial project. It’ll be sci-fi again.
Tommy Lee Jones gets my vote.
Michael Peña, End of Watch
Scoot McNairy, Killing Them Softly
Michael Fassbender, Prometheus
Irfan Khan, Life of Pi
James Badge Dale, Flight
All of the above make Arkin and DeNiro look like canned hams this year.
Hmm… I didn’t realize that Scoot guy was the guy from ARGO too. Yeah he should have gotten some recognition somewhere. Honestly, this is the first time I remember seeing that name. And if you like Peña, you should check out GANGSTER SQUAD. He’s in it some and it was a fun gangster movie, if you’re into that sort of thing.
I won’t put my best supporting actor dudes as I already have 9 billion times before and we’d be here all day.
I feel like Jones is a strong contender because of the strength of the writing of his character less than the performance itself. He’s good, but…is it just me or should someone portraying a politician from Pennsylvania (or the northeast) perhaps work on an accent which vaguely approximates that? As opposed to just lazily doing their own Texas accent? Should that not be Acting 101? What if the character was from England? Would he still talk like he was from the American south?
This is akin to my gripe over Daniel’s Craig’s performance in Dragon Tattoo. A Swede with a British accent.
Here’s a tidbit:
This year 70% of the 20 actors and actresses nominated in the 4 acting categories come from films nominated for Best Picture.
That’s up from just 45% of the 20 nominees featured in Best Picture contenders last year.
(If The Master had made the cut for BP, then 17 of the 20 nominated performances this year would have come from BP nominees. 85%)
I just still can’t believe, in a year with such great performances, ARKIN made the cut. Still shocks me.
I almost positive that DeNiro will win the SAG. They will want to reward him on his ‘return to form.’ Not sure if Oscar will match.
They will want to reward him on his ‘return to form.
How sad if that happens. Here’s a prize for not adding another total groaner to the string of 25 shitty films in a row you’ve churned out for over a decade.
@Jerry: Good call on Walken. He and Gandolfini (for Not Fade Away or Killing Them Softly, take your pick) were in my personal top 5.
But yeah, Leo got screwed again. If he can’t pull a nod for Gatsby or Wolf next year, we can all assume he goes around banging Academy members’ wives for sport.
Arkin got in over clark… *sad face*.
Hoffman is probably deserving of the win, but he has to win SAG. It will decide the winner, probably.
Who will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Who I wish would win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Who I think was seriously snubbed: Jason Clarke. Most memorable personality from Zero Dark Thirty.
Fassy was great in Prometheus. He was snubbed in the BFCA Best Adventure or What-Have-You Actor category. I never thought of him as supporting, but I will be including in my top 10 Lead Actors for the year.
I honestly think Tommy Lee Jones is excellent in Lincoln. I wouldn’t have voted for him to win for The Fugitive, but he still deserves it now. Shelley Winters, Anthony Quinn, Fredric March, even Liz Taylor in light of BUtterfield 8 — these actors all won 2 Oscars despite not doing some great stretch in one of their performances. And only Liz really topped herself in her second winning performance, but then her first win was a bit of a joke and payback.
So if Jones wins, he’d be in fine company of respected character actors who have their part to play and play it well. If anything, this IS TLJ’s greatest performance and the most stretching and digging-deep he’s ever done on film. Lincoln is great material to be winning for, too. (Please, Little Miss Sunshine was not great material, even if the material is what at least ensured Arkin the nomination. I’m sure it was Arkin’s goodwill and the overall preference for his film that helped him beat Eddie Murphy).)
Anyway, it’s not like there’s an overdue, powerhouse Christian Bale Fighter performance here.
I loved Waltz in Django. He WAS the film. I’m not sure I see it as an Oscar-winning performance, for the same reasons why I frankly didn’t see DiCaprio’s work as an Oscar-nominated performance either. The script is all dialogue and shooting. I don’t know that Waltz is doing enough of a stretch this time to merit for playing that kind of character. I doubt he’ll win anyway since SAG ignored him, so I think he’s a foolish prediction. But in this great field of character actors, no one can do that kind of character as well as he can.
Daryl Copperstreep could disguise as Arkin and play a floor lamp and she, uh, he would still be chosen over a DiCaprio working his ass off playing God himself.
I’ve said this before, but I don’t believe for a second that Lincoln will take Best Picture AND Best Director AND Best Actor AND Best Screenplay AND Best Supporting Actor. This would be an UNPRECEDENTED sweep, in a very competitive year. And the weakest link here is Tommy Lee Jones. Even more considering his first award is seen as being undeserved.
Of course, if Lincoln doesn’t take Best Picture and Best Director (or even wins BP with winning Best Director) then his chances increase.
Waltz won too recently, doesn’t have a career as strong as the rest of the others, and some don’t consider him even the best supporting actor of Django (indeed, some don’t consider him supporting at all).
Arkin’s first award was more because of the LMS’ popularity as well as Eddie Murphy’s backlash; plus Argo has been proven to not be as strong as some people (myself included) believed.
De Niro’s performance isn’t all that acclaimed, DDL winning reduces the chance of a second 3rd time winner, and his career in the last 15-20 has been crap, and not everyone will forget that.
So, by elimination, I’m going with Hoffman- the most consistent American actor of the last 10 years, probably the only one whose performance was nearly unanimously very acclaimed, in a role that’s closer to be the villain than any of the others, and the Academy loves it’s villains.
I’m so on bored with you on Scoot McNairy, Ryan. I came out of Killing Them Softly enamored by this actor. Ray Liotta, James Gandolfini, and that guy who plays his heroin addict buddy all play showier roles, but Scoot McNairy comes out the winner in my book. This man’s gonna win an oscar one day, mark my word.
I meant to say “on board,” obviously.
As for the Oscar race, this on’e up in the air for me but I think Tommy Lee Jones will eventually prevail. And I recently watched Hope Springs with my mom, and he was actually really great in that too.
I have a feeling they’ll give to DeNiro.
I could live with either Hoffman or Jones because they added to their respective films depth.
I say Jones is most deserving, but I like Hoffman – and if you’re going to accuse Jones of playing Jones, you can say the same thing about all these performances except Waltz – who is playing himself playing a previous character.
Anybody but Arkin or DeNiro – they could have sleepwalk their way through these films.
if it goes to anyone besides Philip Seymour Hoffman, I’ll be disappointed. I htink Tommy Lee Jones shined in Lincoln only because he was given some of the best material. But then that always helps. Hoffman was brilliant and better than anyone else here.
Scoot McNairy has a small role in guess what film? You got it! 12 Years a Slave!
“I’ve said this before, but I don’t believe for a second that Lincoln will take Best Picture AND Best Director AND Best Actor AND Best Screenplay AND Best Supporting Actor. This would be an UNPRECEDENTED sweep, in a very competitive year.”
Actually, this wouldn’t be unprecedented. The following movies have won BP, director, a lead performance, a supporting performance, and screenplay.
1939: Gone With the Wind. BP/director/actress/supporting actress/screenplay.
1942: Mrs. Miniver. BP/director/actress/supporting actress/screenplay.
1944: Going My Way. BP/director/actor/supporting actor/screenplay.
1946: The Best Years of Our Lives. BP/director/actor/supporting actor/screenplay.
1954: On the Waterfront. BP/director/actor/supporting actress/screenplay.
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer. BP/director/actor/supporting actress/screenplay.
Also, three films managed an even more impressive feat, winning BP, director, screenplay, and both lead performances. Those movies were It Happened One Night, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and The Silence of the Lambs.
It is true that such a “sweep” hasn’t happened in awhile. But it’s definitely not unprecedented.
Its´a crazy year, and in the end, nobody knows anything…
But I really can´t see no one winning but Hoffman.
By far the best performance.
De Niro winning a 3rd forthat role? No way… Please…
Jones? Is TLJ an actor to win 2 Oscars? Please…
Waltz? Winning his 2nd in 3 years… for the same role? Please…
Arkin is great and would be a nice way to giev another great prize but Best Picture. But, liking the movie and him, it´s a very small role and not really Oscar winning…
Hoffman has everything. A role “almost leading”, great and brilliant performance, 7 years between 2 awards…
For me, if we look all this seriously, he´s the only possible winner…
Sadly I don’t care who wins in this category. I am not excited by any of them winning. If Ezra Miller, Ewan McGregor or Eddie Redmayne had been nominated I’d have someone to root for. Because Hoffman and Waltz aren’t really supporting I don’t think either of them should win. But one of them may.
“Actually, this wouldn’t be unprecedented. The following movies have won BP, director, a lead performance, a supporting performance, and screenplay.”
Yeah, but I was thinking about this specific one, with the movie winning Actor and Supporting Actor, which is a lot harder, since it’s more common for movies that win two acting awards to have them to different genders. I forgot about Going My Way and The Best Years of Our Lives winning all of those.
But in anyway, all those years were clear sweeps, I can’t imagine this happening in such a competitive year.
I disagree about Hoffman not being supporting- the movie is about Freddie, not him.
And Ewan McGregor’s performance is pretty good, but certainly not Oscar worthy, IMO. I’d rank even Arkin above him.
Robert De Niro, the greatest film actor of all time, deserves the Academy Award for his moving performance in Silver Linings Playbook. After being ignored for The King of Comedy, Mean Streets, Casino, Heat, Once Upon A Time in America, Goodfellas, A Bronx Tale, The Untouchables, New York New York, The Good Shepherd, Wag the Dog, Everybody’s Fine, Stone, The Mission, Midnight Run and countless other performances, I suspect and hope he will win – not just for the body of work that surpasses every other American actor, but for a nuanced and loving performance in that wonderful film. Anyone who says De Niro hasn’t given many recent great performances needs to see Being Flynn, Stone and Everybody’s Fine.
I wish John Goodman had just a bit more to do in ARGO to earn him a nomination. I really liked Tom Hardy and Guy Pierce in LAWLESS. I would have no problem with Matthew McConaughy, Javier Bardem or Dwight Henry showing up in this category. But at the end of the day, my vote goes to Grumpy Lee Jones. Hoffman a distant second.
If Silver Linings Playbook is as loved by the Academy as most people think, Supporting Actor maybe the place it wins on Oscar night. The other seven categories have much stiffer competition:
Picture – Looks like Lincoln, possibly Argo. With SLP losing at the Globes, it doesn’t have any momentum currently. The last comedy to win Best Picture without winning the Globe was Annie Hall in 1977.
Director – David O. Russell was shut out of the Globes Directing category AND the DGA. No one has ever won Best Director at the Oscars without a DGA nomination
Screenplay – Lincoln has been touted as the frontrunner here. Also, if Argo is on the path to Best Picture, it may pick this one up.
Editing – this nomination seemed to surprise most everyone. The last time a comedy (non-musical) won editing was Who Framed Roger Rabbit? in 1988 (and they had animated and live action actors)
Which takes us to the acting categories. Of the 13 movies that have received nominations in all four acting categories, 2 won zero, 5 won one, 4 won two, 2 won three, and 0 have won all four. Odds are, Silver linings wins one or two acting awards.
Lead Actor – This award seems pretty much sewn-up for Daniel Day-Lewis.
Supporting Actress – Jacki Weaver seems like a long shot next for Anne Hathaway and Sally Field.
Lead Actress – Tis could be a win for Jennifer Lawrence. But she’s got stiff competition from Jessica Chastain and Chastain has a few things in her favor. 1 – She anchors Zero Dark 30, whereas Lawrence is arguably a large supporting role, 2 – She is coming off an impressive year last year with Tree of Life, The Help, Take Shelter, et. al., and 3 – This may be one of the few categories Zero Dark 30 can win. Once SAG picks their winner, we will have a better grasp on this category.
That leaves Supporting Actor as the strongest chance Silver Linings Playbook has for a win on Oscar night. There is no clear front runner in this category, with McConaughey winning NYFC, Dwight Henry winning LAFC, DiCaprio winning NBR, Hoffman winning Critics Choice, and Waltz winning the Globe. Three of the aforementioned men aren’t even nominated at the Oscars.
De Niro hasn’t won an Oscar since 1981 for Raging Bull and hasn’t been nominated sine 1992 for Cape Fear. In fact, every other nominee in this category has won their Oscar in the time since De Niro was last nominated. If De Niro were to win on Oscar night, he would join Hepburn, Brennan, Cagney, Bergman, Nicholson, Streep, and presumably Day-Lewis as one of the most decorated actors in Oscar history – an accolade many may feel he deserves.
Awards guru Tom O’Neil always says to look for the orange in the bunch of apples. In a category filled with loud, commanding performances, De Niro’s understated, nuanced, heartfelt performance stands out. Hoffman and Jones both deliver loud, persuasive speeches, Waltz does his fair share of making a spectacle of himself, and Arkin (and Jones) supplies with that great “grumpy old man” humor that tends to dominate this category.
I think De Niro is the winner here, and rightfully so. We will know a bit more after the SAG awards.
And, in closing, to those of you who don’t feel it’s a “good enough role” to win an Oscar, just remember that Al Pacino’s oscar is not for The Godfather, not for Serpico, not even for Glengarry Glen Ross. Pacino’s Oscar is for Scent of a Woman. Anything is possible.
Brad: I agree with your entire rationale. But…Cagney? He only won one Oscar.
“Who Will Win Best Supporting Actor?”
I voted for Waltz to win for his role in Django Unchained (yesterday). And I’ve witnessed here on AD good faith in Tommy Lee Jones, or rather, belief in the Academy voters to vote for him most.
One thing for sure, if the voters would like to piss AD readers for kicks, all they need to do is, just vote for Arkin LOL…. JK
De Niro- feels like a “welcome back!” nomination (he was simply adorable and heartfelt in the picture)
Hoffman & Waltz- though both equally amazing in their perspective roles, they’re entirely leads in their pictures
Arkin- there’s no way he should or will win, and honestly shouldn’t be nominated. Sure, he was funny and did great with his role, but it’s a cameo at best
that leaves Jones as the obvious supporting character in his film, he’s also playing a historical figure, he’s GREAT in the film, funny, charming, demanding, and it fits like a glove. I would have more faith in him winning if he hadn’t won for a less superior performance…
However, this year it’s all up in the air with this category and I LOVE that!!! It’s anybody’s game, everyone has an Oscar (or two). I would be extremely excited for anyone of these gentlemen (except Arkin whom I respect as an artist very much, but honestly shouldn’t be in the race at all)
@Edward – Yeah…. That’s what i get for checking my facts with wikipedia….. Cagney has 1 win and 3 nominations.
This is one category that I feel absolutely nothing for. The nominees don’t even excite me. Probably because I think Ewan McGregor should definitely be in the mix and with significant heat. When someone that good is overlooked it makes me realise how this is now a popularity contest as opposed to actually rewarding the best. The Impossible and its cast were the best for me this year – end of!
As bad as the Academy is with rewarding middle aged or old women with Best Actress (only ONE Fifty-something has ever won Best Actress – Shirley Booth. Apparently women are at their least interesting in their lives) and selecting the hot young thang, it is equally bad at avoiding young men in Lead or Supporting.
If ever there was doubt that the Academy is run by old white guys, the two mainstays above should help to clarify the fact.
The best performance I’ve seen Alan Arkin give (though I must admit, I haven’t seen his earlier work in The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming or The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter or Catch-22) is in Thirteen Conversations About One Thing. There had been talk then about a nomination for him, but I guess he hadn’t yet achieved the “veteran” status that AMPAS so loves to reward.
I also find it interesting that so many are saying that the category is uninteresting because all the nominees are previous winners. I would probably say the same thing if none of the performances are worth getting behind, but I think that there at least a couple that deserve attention based on merit.
Lot of interesting threads in Oscar history in this category, which I think is the first time EVERY nominee has been a former winner. Just think, if Eddie Murphy had won as expected in 2006, Arkin would be the big sentimental favourite now. Or, if Ralph Fiennes had won in 1993, TLJ would be the big sentimental favourite.
I’m in the camp that feels this group is a bit safe, especially given that there were a TON of great supporting roles that could’ve been nominated instead. Waltz wasn’t even one of the two best supporting roles in his own movie — I would’ve definitely gone with Jackson and DiCaprio ahead of him. There’s nothing wrong with the five nominees, but if you had a list of the year’s best supporting performances*, I feel like these would be numbers #10-#14 or so, rather than the top five.
* = of course, Hoffman isn’t really a supporting performance, but blame the Academy’s silly rules for that.
Waltz will win…the fact that it is a lead performance and an incredible one at that will help the matter, not harm it. The fact that he won already in a short span of time doesn’t mean anything: ask Jodie Foster, Tom Hanks and Kevin Spacey!
Jones is losing steam fast. Hoffman and Arkin are always great, the nod is their award! I’d say De Niro could prevail if Waltz doesn’t.
That said, this category belonged to DiCaprio! It’s shame he didn’t get the love he deserved.