Argo expected to plow through last remaining guild awards before Taking Best Picture Oscar

This upcoming weekend will be the Writers Guild, the Editors Guild, the Cinema Audio Society and the Motion Picture Sound Editing.  At this point, we’re just going through the motions — it’s all over but the enthusiastic speech at the end.

I expect that Argo will win the Writers Guild award as the ballots were turned in the same time as the PGA and SAG, just as the gasoline hit the flame and Argo became the unstoppable frontrunner.  I also expect (it’s a no-brainer actually) Argo to win the Ace Eddie. There probably isn’t an easier prediction to make this year.

Finally, Argo ISN’T nominated for the Cinema Audio Society award so perhaps voters can do a write-in vote?  The nominees are Les Mis, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln and The Hobbit.  Probably Les Miserables wins that, right? Or Skyfall.

We have a contest! Test your abilities predicting all three of these after the cut:

50 Comments on this Post

  1. WAIT, Argo isn’t up for the CAS! That means it’s unlikely to win the Oscar for Sound Mixing (right?). Which means Argo is looking at only Picture, Editing, Screenplay, and Sound Editing if they want to be silly.

    The last three Best Picture nominees to win Editing without a Director nomination: Apollo 13, The Right Stuff, and Jaws

  2. And when you think about it, for a movie that’s sweeping everything, Argo wins as little as possible at the televised awards–literally ONLY the categories with Affleck and/or Clooney’s names on them, plus Editing.

  3. @Sasha

    Do you think there’s anything that can be done to stop this year-in-and-year-out guild/Academy uniformity that occurs nearly every year?

    Pushing the ceremony back to March?
    Getting rid of the preferential ballot?

    There has to be something. I find it hard to believe that it’s possible for that many groups to fall in line for the same film every year without an X factor pushing them in that direction. Whatever that X factor may be, it should be identified and rid of.

  4. SeattleMoviegoer

    this long, tedious, unaccountably inevitable Affleck coronation is getting dull.

  5. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Zero Dark Thirty for the Eddie, Argo for WGA and Les Miz for CAS.

  6. @tr
    your so called ‘x factor’ is plain ‘herd mentality’…
    to re-word your question: can herd mentality be identified and rid of?
    yes, and no.
    sad, but true… being part of the consensus choice make you look good, so no, the status quo won’t be broken. AMPAS doesn’t have the guts (they tried to do so with this year’s directing nominees lineup and it backfired)

  7. Bryce Forestieri

    Even if Terrio wins the WGA I will still predict Tony Kushner because fuck this shit

  8. Bryce, I wish I could “like” your comment.

  9. Do you think there’s anything that can be done to stop this year-in-and-year-out guild/Academy uniformity that occurs nearly every year?

    No. Part of it is the disappointing news that people who could say something about it don’t. No one passes judgment except me and maybe Jeff Wells – everyone else just goes along with it to look, I guess, like an impartial spectator. So you have as much uniformity in Oscar blogging now as you do in voting. Scott Feinberg, Anne T, Tapley – they just roll with it, don’t comment on it. If you don’t point it out nothing will ever change. Then again, A) they probably don’t personally care, and B) even if they did they might not be able to do anything about it. It bothers me that when I first started there wasn’t uniformity. Now it plays out like a political election. People take sides and contenders “campaign” hard and you can’t beat back a charm offensive like Affleck and Clooney bring. If they go back to five nominees it’s possible that it won’t turn out this way EVERY SINGLE TIME.

  10. I wish I wrote this

    Even if Terrio wins the WGA I will still predict Tony Kushner because fuck this shit

  11. richard crawford

    As I write the President is delivering a very great State of the Union.
    Argo was suspenseful.
    Argo is NOT the best picture of the year.
    I respect everyone involved…everyone who made the movie.

  12. (richard crawford! please come around more often. we miss you, dude.)

    I really liked the State of the Union Address. Spiked with lots of Oscar Moments. But one thing bugged me.)

  13. Robert A.

    “Argo is NOT the best picture of the year.
    I respect everyone involved…everyone who made the movie.”

    I agree. Of course, I think the same thing about Lincoln.

  14. though I’ve said it here a trillion times that I have no particular horse on any of these races, if ANYTHING beats the writing in “Lincoln” here, then there’s no sense to any of this. I do not dislike the writing of “Argo”, “…Pi” (which I might love the most among the BP’s), “Beasts…” and “SLP” (which I also love for VERY personal reasons, but I don’t wanna repeat myself), but the wordplay and the structure in “Lincoln” are masterclasses in both dialogue-writing and script structure IMO.

    I’m not sure I’m on board with Sasha’s strong campaign for “Lincoln” – if only because I loved so many other films as well – but there were no other films with a better lead performance and a better screenplay made in 2012.

  15. If the WGA goes for Argo, it would be almost as bad as SAG giving it Best Cast. The Hollywood back-patting needs to stop, but I doubt it’s going to. It’s just a terrible shame that, after such a historic awards year, we’re going to end up with an incredibly forgettable Best Picture winner that most people won’t remember in six months.

  16. The outcome of the Oscars will be very interesting. If the Academy picks Argo as Best Picture, what it has done is admit that it allows all the guilds to decide the winner. Now if I think the Academy is what I think it is, an institution that likes to make it clear to everyone it does NOT let any other organization dictate on how they decide the winners (just look at years past at the Oscars), then perhaps they will see this in time and choose something else besides Argo as Best Picture. If not, then maybe they will rethink announcing nominations too early just as they rethinked the Ten Best Picture Nominees thing after two years.

  17. The problem for me isn’t that Argo is going to win Best Picture. It’s in my top ten for 2012 (#10 to be exact) after all. The problem is the sheer boredom of Argo winning every single major award under the sun, and it’s a problem that occurs almost every year.

    Hell, I was pretty mad when The King’s Speech did it, but even that year the Globe and Critic’s Choice went to something else.

    They really oughta get rid of the guild awards. Get rid of the guild awards and invite more people into the Academy.

  18. I’m with Bryce that Kushner will win the Oscar for adapted screenplay regardless of the WGA results.

  19. I suspect we’re going to see an Argo sweep, but if Lincoln, SLP, or Life of Pi wins the WGA and Eddie, I will change my vote to that film.

  20. “Argo is NOT the best picture of the year.
    I respect everyone involved…everyone who made the movie.”

    I agree. Of course, I think the same thing about Lincoln.

    They’re both among the best films of the year but you can’t get a majority vote for Lincoln. What makes me the most sad is that 1) there are five directors who were nominated and one of their films should win best picture. 2) Kathleen Kennedy holds the record of any producer in Hollywood ever to never have won an Oscar. She and Spielberg together hold the record for most nominated producers ever. Yet Kennedy has never won. It’s unforgivable to me that there isn’t a strong enough push to reward her. But both are good movies. I’m proud to say that I only predicted two movies to win this year on Gurus of Gold – Argo and Lincoln. Now watch Silver Linings will win.

  21. Don’t get the hate for SLP around these parts. It’s in my top 5 of the year, and think it would be a nice surprise if it won.

  22. reichdome back with AVENGEANCE

    Let me present a statistical fact which exposes the shallowness of the academy:

    Guilds= 100% support for ARgo
    Other Awards= 100% for argo (i do mean major picture, director wins)

    Academy = (likely 100% chance to win picture and editing – and surely surely! at least 2 other smaller awards to ensure it does not take the humiliating honor and the academy does not drown itself in utter shame to make Argo the record for equal lowest oscar wins)

    And this is where the bullshit lies:

    i emphasize:

    THE CINEMA GOING PUBLIC (which, if it would not be for us, 50% of hollywood purpose for existence and purpose for oscar would disappear)

    WE account for total support and i think i pretty damn accurate in this:

    20% MAXIMUM MAXIMUM! support for bloody Argo

    That means a whopping 80% since awards season began oppose Argo winning,

    of those,
    65% or 3 times 3 TIMES!!!!! as many people this awards season commenting here, and indeed in other articles in your national press, even in australia here, support overwhelmingly LINCOLN

    The disturbing reality dawns on us. To the academy what they once allowedf rightfully to shape a film success- not box office but more so buzz what was talked about- which film was talked about most and debated over other during the traditional awards season

    THAT IS wqhat films like the Godfather trilogy, Gone with the Wind, Ben Hur, Longest Day, Sound of Music generated.

    Heat and what was HOT oscar RESPECTED the public’s word..as much as their own members.. there was balance and harmony.

    Now, in this era ESPECIALLY since the new millenium the rift has NEVER been greater and so like a long marriage coming to a damn bitter hell of a split and a end,

    Oscar go their own way and just treat the public like shithouse trash. Why? g-d knows,

    I will make this bold prediction though!

    OScar will regret in time like they did snubbing saving private ryan..not awarding lincoln which, if anything is a better film as everything is total non fiction. everything is true and harder to portray spielberg did it and got no recognition where thejustice in that?

    I make another prediction you know why LOTR won?

    EXTREME PUBLIC PRESSURE- oscar knew they would pay the price dearly for ignoring the heights of the film achievements.

    Lincoln is not cinematicaly groundbreaking, not liek avatar or lord of the rings or heck that other film that was too good for oscar which is complete utter bullshit, The Dark Knight trilogy. but it way more authentic and real and important as drama as artform as nonfiction- 100% than most films made in recent times.

    Yet it beggard belief how blindsided OScar has become. The only way they rescue there shithouse ratings is to embrace lincoln in an ‘UPSET’

    The guild in the lotr year and correlation between them and kings massive win, well the guilds knew they were compelled to bow to extreme public pressure and the inevitable prublic global riots en massse if lotr did not win.

    And so it seems a sinister evil pattern is forming. OScar and Guilds are as delusional as each other. They somehow? believe their ratings will be rescued by making a underdog film a frontrunner…when they know that NOT the film most of the public care about or are interested in of the ones nominated for awards season.

    Consider my comment a cameo. consider this contribution by me as occassional- far less than it used to be. consider me to represent one of so many here who post less than they used to and why? not cos of sasha and ryan no way! far from it tyour inisghts are marvellous, realistic most of the time, more objective and more passionate with your convictions than most other press in and out of hollywood.

    No, the issue is trhe sad and sorry severely irrepairably (nearly- if they snub avatar’s two sequels or one of them i give up on oscar totaly) but like so many others after well over a decade- 15 years to be precise following! YOU KNOW WHAT? it IS the film that i upset MY film did not win. is it ANY coincidence then most of the time since i been here on awardsdaily, that most people seem to agree on the same film they want to win for differebt reasons?

    there obnly so much good will oscar can hope to destroy and ebtween me and them and so many others globally in the public and themselves they utterly shattered it in irrepairable pieces.

    And so like so many others i post far less as i not gonna waste my time when the only pple that shiouold read this sitye that do NOT but should are oscar members. they need a reality check fast- the largest cindematic artistic once groudbreaking inspiring movie instiutions one of a kind in the world is diminishing it cultural significance as it panders to celeberity status over the more memorable of films and to the guilds which suck up big time to oscar…and i dont have time for it

  23. Robert A.

    “I’m proud to say that I only predicted two movies to win this year on Gurus of Gold – Argo and Lincoln. Now watch Silver Linings will win.”

    Sasha, bite your tongue! Stop! *Robert A. shivers*

    I didn’t even dislike SLP in the way a lot of people do, but it’s my 7th ranked out of the 9 BP contenders and would be a disappointing winner for me.

    But I’m an Amour and Beasts guy, so I won’t be seeing my ponies get anywhere near Best Picture.

  24. Sasha: We know that a best picture winner isn’t decided by the majority just checking one movie off. So are you predicting Argo to win because you think an overwhelming amount of voters are going to put it at number 1 now? Or do you think its still going to be most peoples number 2 or 3 choice but because of weird preferential voting math it will be ultimately chosen as the best picture winner? If its the Latter than another movie like Silver Linings or Lincoln still has a shot because those 2 could still easily show up as someone’s 1, 2, or 3 and the math can work out in their favor. I say THAT along with Ben Afflecks director omission still makes this somewhat of a race. If we were saying what movie are they only going pick, like they used to do it, THEN I would say its Argo over and out. But im holding out hope for another pick.

  25. I only hope that the Academy might not want to look like fools by giving ‘Lincoln’ just one Oscar. That means that Spielberg still has a shot to win director.

    The Academy already look like terrible fools for giving ‘Citizen Kane’, ‘Pulp Fiction’ and ‘The Descendants’ one Oscar each. In each year a vastly inferior movie won. Will they risk looking like terrible fools one more time this year?

  26. Danemychal

    How on earth would a Weinstein film winning BP be a “surprise”? I am fully prepared for that letdown.

  27. Pierre de Plume

    I don’t want to build up unrealistic expectations, but on the day of the Oscars 3 years ago, Sasha – yes you, Sasha! – changed your best picture prediction to Avatar. My feeling at the time was that you were trying to ease the disappointment of a THL loss. Well we all know how that turned out.

    I’m till most curious to see the WGA results. I’m in no rush to pick a horse at the moment.

  28. eclipse22

    20% support argo , where does one come up with that number? whatever

    i only came around because i’ve now seen django unchained and so my top 9 in best picture is:

    ARGO
    LES MISERABLES
    DJANGO UNCHAINED
    LINCOLN
    SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

    hopefully i see the rest before oscar night

  29. SeattleMoviegoer

    has anyone read Mark Harris’ terrific book about another amazing year for movies–a landmark year actually–1967? “Pictures at a Revolution” it’s a little like this year: a wealth of great, career-best movies for many filmmakers, and the Oscar gets behind a respectable but not-so-groundbreaking movie for its highest honor, IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT. the director award goes to Mike Nichols for THE GRADUATE (its only honor) and the other awards were sprinkled among notable ’67 movies which included BONNIE AND CLYDE. they even had a musical in the mix, but i won’t be so cynical to equate LES MIZ with DOCTOR DOOLITTLE. ARGO is this years’ HEAT/NIGHT–but without the zeitgeist of a civil rights movement giving it timely importance.

  30. Jerry Grant

    I agree that Kushner will still win Screenplay Oscar night because fuck this shit.

    More precisely, I want to believe that Academy members can still be nuanced enough to think “Argo” could be a better movie while not having Kushner’s extraordinary screenplay. Academy members loved Lincoln”\–they gave it 12 nominations. If Lincoln the movie can’t win with a majority vote, then the screenplay still has a very good shot, because when you compare the two screenplays side by side, the choice is really quite clear.

  31. Mike sorry but you’re talking rubbish. The Academy isn’t letting the guilds decide anything. They are voting for the film they like best, which is what every major group has also decides they like best.

    The anti Argo, pro Lincoln thing on this site is so annoying, I am rooting for Argo.

    For the record, I don’t think Argo is the best picture of the year. Nor was the artist, the kings speech or the Hurt locker, or, most other choices the academy has made.

    We cant criticize the process cos our favorite doesn’t win, we didn’t hear any complaints here when the hurt locker was sweeping.

    The awards are what they are- the trick is not minding

  32. The uniformity between the Guilds and the Academy have always been since I follow the Oscars. Back in the 90s you could be sure that 1) at least 3 of the 4 SAG winners (since 1994, when the SAG hit the precursor-race) would also win at the Oscars, and 2) that the DGA-winner in about 90% has directed the film that went on to win “Best Picture”.

    I don´t believe the Acdemy members just follow the guilds (why should they, because no one out there knows about those Guilds except us Oscar maniacs?), it´s just that these guys generally speaking share the same preferences.

  33. Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE

    IT a approximation eclipse.

    Nobody else has questioned it but you. Thought you know not to take that literally as total precision but a realistic approximation look at majority of the comments across all the topics i have…at a glance and frankly that all i have to do to see the overall picture.

    The public is OVERWHELMINGLY in favour or lincoln. i even go as far to suggest that more people back silver linings or zero dark thirty on the bulk of comments i seen over argo.

    This oscar race is the pretty much barring a miracle in future years oscar’s ‘f_k you’ thanx so much we dont need your contribution film fans that (sic) (even if we privately admit hollywood is the institution it is because the public embraces the films we made for nearly a hundred years!

    NOTHINGnothing can justify what oscar are contemplating:

    PS: i would have totally been for zero dark thirty to win it contribution to contemporary cinema by it theme and the calibre and quality of the director and same team that brought the brilliant hurt locker is way more challenging and daring and appealing to the public than Argo- whicch i on track for hating more than shakespeare in love simply cos at least shakespeare had multiple oscars to justify it win not just the thimble full of rubbish that oscar are set to serve up!

  34. Astarisborn

    I could barely stay and watch the last 3rd of SLP…. Most predictable and cliche filled to the hilt. How can this be nominated for WGA? When he hopefully wins, let Kushner speak about his own brilliant words.

  35. Mark Harris, who is married to Tony Kushner, sat out writing about the Oscar race this year. I would love to hear his take on this Oscar race. And on the screenplay awards in particular.

  36. Kushner needs to win so he can have the EOT out of EGOT + Pulitzer. He would have every possible award for a playwright, no? I don’t think he’s ever lost more awards than this year.

    It’s not like Ben Affleck wrote the Argo script, so PLEASE, be logical, voters. Not that logic is your strong suit.

    And by logical I really mean that you should look at your ballot and realize that Argo is not the best in any field except for editing (MAYBE), so check yourselves before ranking it number one.

  37. Watermelons

    Kushner needs to win so he can have the EOT out of EGOT + Pulitzer.

    I can’t think of a better reason to award a screenplay.

  38. As much as I wanted to predict Argo for the WGA win, even Lincoln as a close 2nd…I went with my gut and put Silver Linings Playbook. I’m feeling some odd shift in the air. Ever since David O. Russell returned to fine form with The Fighter he’s been building a lot of goodwill again.

  39. Have to disagree about Russell’s return to form. He seems to have lost control of his actors, which results in some pretty hammy moments. I love Bale and Leo (her turn in Frozen River is terrific), but under Russell’s direction, I thought they were both encouraged to go way over the top. Same with DeNiro and Lawrence in SLP – so much so that I stopped believing what I was seeing.

    Early Russell was better (Flirting, 3 Kings). If he keeps on this path for directing, he’ll have to change his first name to Ken.

  40. rufussondheim

    Kushner has not won the Nobel Prize for Literature, Zach. That’s the big one. Very few playrights have won, Eugene O’Neill, Harold Pinter, Samuel Beckett are the three that stand out. Looking over the list. I don’t see any other people who are remembered primarily for their dramatic works.

    Tony Kushner has, really, only one standout classic play. Even Part 2 of Angels in America has major flaws amongst many strong portions (note that the Pulitzer decided not to award him for Part 2). He’s had a lot of strong work, but even among contemporary playrights he’s not at the top (that would probably go to Tom Stoppard) of people who could potentially win the Nobel.

  41. Even with the unexpected Argo-sweep, I honestly don’t see Tony Kushner losing the WGA. Just think about it, IF people wanted to recognize/console Affleck, then the BP/BD awards at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes and BAFTAs all make sense, because HE was nominated in those categories, so wins in those actually meant trophies FOR him. Same with the PGA and DGA.

    BUT

    he wasn’t the screenwriter, Terrio wasn’t snubbed by the Academy, therefore didn’t have the kind of narrative Affleck does, which at least partially explains why he hasn’t won anything big so far, and if you ask me, he won’t win now, either. Kushner HAS TO have the WGA in the bag, he is not only the most deserving nominee in my opinion, but as a widely acclaimed Pulitzer Prize winning playwright, also the ‘prestige’ pick, one that might make voters feel good/classy/sophisticated about themselves if they pick him. Unfortunately I could see Russell surprise, but unlike a notthebestbutstillworthy Terrio win, THAT would be an utter travesty.

    P.S. Sure, ACE will go to Argo.

  42. *Pulitzer
    *minus an ‘actually’

  43. Pierre de Plume

    phantom, your comments here (and on other threads) are very well thought out and make terrific sense. You seem to be quite impartial in your judgments.

    I’ve seen the Academy make nonsensical but oddly logical choices since the early 1960s. By the late 1960s there was quite a backlash against them, with nominees saying openly critical things about the Oscars and many of them shunning the ceremonies altogether. There have been some improvements, and I’m heartened by the positive effect that younger filmmakers, and notably those from overseas, can have on their choices. But we have to remember that a significant portion of the Academy’s membership isn’t involved in the creative side of filmmaking but, rather, the business and promotional side of things. So, even to this day, it’s really best not to invest too much feeling in our personal favorites.

  44. If Kushner wins the WGA, I will go all Braveheart in my predictions. The Academy can never take our freedom.

    Nobel, Schmobel. Argo, Schmargo.
    Karenina didn’t work out so well for Stoppard. (Now I’m just being catty.)

  45. rufussondheim

    Stoppard got his Oscar back in 1998, Zach. I’m sure he’s fine. (cattyX2)

  46. @rufussondheim: Are you anti-Lincoln galore? Every time I read your comments, you have the worst and most negative things to say about everyone involved- INCLUDING Kushner. Who cares if the Pulitizer only gave him their award for the first act of Angels? Who the fuck cares, it’s a Pulitizer prize! Just admit that you don’t think Lincoln is worthy of wins and stop being a prick. I would hate to see your ballot for the academy awards- you’re not only pro Argo for the sake of being pompous, every single one of your predictions has been for the worst choices possible- starting with Argo taking undeserved wins in Picture and Script (or was it Silver Linings you creamed over?). Just stop! For once I would like to see you actually talk positively about the outcome of the Oscars- but when you start shitting on Kushner, you deserve to have your ass handed to you.

    On another note- anyone predicting Russell to win now are fools. After his horrible behavior at the BAFTAs, do you really think voters will want to give him anything now? They’re allowing Ben Affleck sympathy for not being a director nominee influence their voting, I’m sure they will also let sore losers influence them as well.

  47. Steve50,

    I disagree with you on Russell’s actors but what I said was not as clear as it should have been. When I said, “Return to fine form” I really meant getting back to everyones good graces after that Nailed tragedy and all of that talk about arguing with Clooney and Tomlin on his films. He seems to have changed for the better and SLP definitely seems to be a pet project for him. He’s admitted it’s for his son and the Academy loves that type of stuff. Plus, if they can’t award SLP best picture they’ll want to give it an award somewhere since Riva might end up taking actress. Remember when Jeffrey Feltcher took screenplay for Precious out of nowhere? I think this is the time for Russell…even though I’m hoping for either Terrio or Kushner to take the award.

  48. Thanks, Pierre, I’m trying to stay as impartial as possible, but particularly this season, it has been hard, and David O. Russell tested me the most, and not just because I kind of hated his film and find it ridiculously overrated. It was tough NOT to hate on the guy when he made that face when my favorite Actress contender FINALLY won something big and I still believe his Bafta-victory in Adapted Screenplay, is ridiculous and an utter travesty just like his multiple Oscar nominations this year, not to mention his shameless campaigning tactics that involved outing his teenage son as one struggling with mental illness and using a good cause for an Oscar campaign while pretending to use an Oscar campaign for a good cause. That’s why it is very difficult for me to accept that he is still a viable possibility in BD/BAS, but, oh well, you are absolutely right, it’s the Oscars, the trick REALLY is not minding.

  49. rufussondheim

    Oh Jenny B, you are a silly woman. A silly woman, indeed. I’ve freely admitted that I don’t think Lincoln is worth of wins in the BP and BD categories. I have said that Day Lewis, Field and Kushner all worth winners. I’m just trying to keep things in a proper perspective. Kushner is a fine playwright and the Pulitzer is a fine award, but Kushner is not our finest playwright and the Pulitzer is not all it’s cracked up to be. So when people keep going on and on abotu Kushner and how he’s won a Pulitzer I need to speak up. Heck, if you want to talk about pulitzers and film adaptations Kushner isn’t even the best this year in my opinion, I think the better film adaptation by a Pulitzer winning playwright this year was Tracy Letts’ Killer Joe.

    So many years we have Pulitzer Winners adapting works into screenplays and no one gives a flying fuck, so why should we this year?

    As for your belief that I like Silver Linings Playbook, well, it just shows me you haven’t been around very long nor have you read very many comments. You making such a claim does nothing but show your cluelessness.

  50. “Remember when Jeffrey Feltcher took screenplay for Precious out of nowhere? I think this is the time for Russell”

    Kane – I have the same exact sinking feeling. I hope we’re wrong.

    Yeah, Russell is behaving better (he’d be in jail if he had gotten any worse), but he still manages to come off as a fratboy jerk.

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