UPDATE: Ballot Deadline – Tuesday Night at 11PM PST.
Rob has assembled the pages for the final stage of the Awards Daily Simulated Ballot. Vote Now! After you make your selections in each category, please answer a few questions so we’ll be able to chart the demographic breakdown by age group, gender, and region of the world.
Voting is now closed
Django, Argo, ZDT
AAAALLLLLL the way. Best 3 movies on the BP list!
Les Miserable is quit overrated tbh. Hugh Jackman as Jean baljean saved the whole damn movie. The only good parts were the beginning scene and the revolutionary scenes. Emotional ending but seriously . . . It’s not that great of a movie
I’m hoping academy members will go against the Hollywood Bolsheviks and vote Zero Dark Thirty the best film of the year. I doubt it, though. I’m sure they won’t go against the party line. As for Commisar Ed Asher urging voters to boycott Zero Dark Thirty: Strip him of academy membership. Do not his actions go against academy rules?
I voted
Picture – Argo
Director – Steven Spielberg
Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress – Naomi Watts
Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress – Sally Field
Adapted Screenplay – Argo
Original Screenplay – Django Unchained.
Here are the picks according to Ben’s Oscar Forecast, using only math, no personal hunches:
Picture: Argo (60%)
Director: Ang Lee (48%)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (74%)
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (60%)
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (43%)
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (69%)
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty (52%)
Adapted Screenplay: Argo (39%)
Animated: Brave (65%)
Foreign: Amour (70%)
Documentary: Searching for Sugarman (80%)
Score: Life of Pi (54%)
Song: Skyfall (50%)
Sound Editing: Skyfall (44%)
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables (63%)
Production Design: Anna Karenina (31%)
Cinematography: Skyfall (30%)
Editing: Argo (69%)
Visual Effects: Life of Pi (78%)
Makeup/Hiar: Les Miserables (69%)
Costume Design: Anna Karenina (odds coming soon)
To see the full list of percentages for all nominees, as well as trivia and the methodology used, go to http://www.oscarforecast.wordpress.com.
Since I can’t get my head around predicting most categories this year (and will get a brain tumor if I think more about it), here are some scenarios I came up with:
I have kept actor and support actress always the same because I think they are locks.
Academy Scenario 1:
The Argonaut!
“Lets give Argo as much as we can without looking too silly or guilty. And fuck the directors! After all you can teach a recess monkey to be a director in a day.”
Best Picture of the Year Argo
Best Director Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor Alan Arkin, Argo
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Original Screenplay Michael Haneke, Amour
Adapted Screenplay Tony Kushner, Lincoln (just can’t make myself give it to anyone else*)
Best Editing Argo
Best Cinematography Life of Pi
Best Costume Design Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hair Les Miserables
Best Original Score Argo
Best Production Design Les Miserables
Best Foreign Language Film Amour
Best Sound mixing Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing Argo
Best Visual Effects Life of Pi
Best Original Song Skyfall
* Chicago got picture without screenplay and director.
Academy Scenario 2:
The Argo gets 3! And 3 others who also get a third! “Lets break the rules and fuck this thing up!”
Best Picture of the Year Argo
Best Director Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Original Screenplay Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Editing Argo
Best Cinematography Skyfall
Best Costume Design Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hair The Hobbit
Best Original Score Life of Pi
Best Production Design Life of Pi
Best Foreign Language Film Amour
Best Sound mixing Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing Argo
Best Visual Effects Life of Pi
Best Original Song Skyfall
Academy Scenario 3:
The Argo fuck yourself!
“Lets make it look as if we really didn’t like Argo, and to make it really believable we shall ignore Lincoln too and go all the way to the second most nominated movie so everyone should be surprised and happy because he is Ang, and we all love Ang Lee, even when he makes a cowboy gay movie, and this time it is not controversial at all, and we will stay away from controversy (No Django either). Also lets spread the wealth (except for fucking Argo)… And we are rambling now!”
Best Picture of the Year Life of Pi
Best Director Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Original Screenplay Michael Haneke, Amour
Adapted Screenplay Benh Zeitlin, Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild (or Lincoln)
Best Editing Life of Pi
Best Cinematography Life of Pi
Best Costume Design Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hair The Hobbit
Best Original Score Life of Pi
Best Production Design Lincoln
Best Foreign Language Film Amour
Best Sound mixing Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects Life of Pi
Best Original Song Skyfall
Academy Scenario 4:
The Bipolar!
“Let’s pretend it is not a rom-com and thank you Harvey! Again!”
Best Picture of the Year Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Original Screenplay Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Editing Zero Dark Thirty (or fucking Argo, whatever)
Best Cinematography Life of Pi
Best Costume Design Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hair The Hobbit
Best Original Score Life of Pi
Best Production Design Lincoln
Best Foreign Language Film Amour
Best Sound mixing Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects Life of Pi
Best Original Song Skyfall
Academy Scenario 5:
They hear my pledge and pick my choices.
“Lets follow this guy (it’s as good as any) so we won’t get a brain tumor this year!”
Best Picture of the Year Lincoln (because is Kathleen’s time already)
Best Director Ang Lee, Life of Pi (because I love Pi and Ang)
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (who else?!)
Best Actress Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (carries the film)
Best Supporting Actor Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (deserving)
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (love Anne)
Original Screenplay Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (best one and he is sexy)
Adapted Screenplay Tony Kushner, Lincoln (best one & love Tony and Angels of…)
Best Editing Zero Dark Thirty (alt: Argo)
Best Cinematography Life of Pi (alt: Skyfall)
Best Costume Design Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hair The Hobbit
Best Original Score Life of Pi
Best Production Design Lincoln (not the best one but I wanted to give it more awards)
Best Foreign Language Film Amour
Best Sound mixing Les Miserables (didn’t like Les mIs but it was live singing)
Best Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects Life of Pi
Best Original Song Skyfall (Adele!!!!!!!!!!)
No guts, no glory:
Best Director: Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Master
Best Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
And that’s it for me folks! I had enough this year!
THANK YOU SASHA. LOVE YOU.
Just to clarify, this vote is my personal preference, not what I predict will win.
I never mix the two, especially in betting. I leave my heart out of it, cut it out like a surgeon, that’s how I treat the Oscars. Dispassionately, a game.
Wish the Academy would release how they voted!
At any rate, I was somewhat surprised by my choices. I thought I would vote for Anne Hathaway but in the end voted for Jacki Weaver. In general I spread the love pretty evenly but I believe Lincoln took a brunt of the technical awards on my ballot.
This may have been off the radar, but the Goya Awards were presented last night. ‘Blancanieves’ got 10 awards while ‘The Impossible’ finished in 2nd place with 5.
Best Film
Blancanieves
Best Director
Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
Best Actor
José Sacristán, The Dead Man And Being Happy
Best Actress
Maribel Verdú, Blancanieves
Best Supporting Actor
Juan Villagrán, Unit 7
Best Supporting Actress
Candela Peña, A Gun In Each Hand
Best New Director
Enrique Gato, Tad, The Lost Explorer
Best Original Screenplay
Pablo Berger, Blancanieves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Javier Barreira, Gorka Magallón, Ignacio del Moral, Jordi Gasull and Neil Landau, Tad, The Lost Explorer
Best Ibero-American Film
Juan Of The Dead
Best Euoprean Film
The Intouchables
Best Cinematography
Kiko de la Rica, Blancanieves
Best Original Score
Alfonso de Villalonga, Blancanieves
Best Original Song
No Te Puedo Encontrar, Blancanieves
Best Art Direction
Alain Bainée, Blancanieves
Best Production Design
Sandra Hermida Muñiz, The Impossible
Best Doctumentary
Sons Of The Clouds
Best Animated Film
Tad, The Lost Explorer
Bes Newcomer, Male
Joaquín Núñez, Unit 7
Best Newcomer, Female
Macarena García, Blancanieves
Best Editing
Elena Ruiz and Bernat Villaplana, The Impossible
Best Sound,
Peter Glossop, Marc Orts and Oriol Tarragó, The Impossible
Best Costume Design
Paco Delgado, Blancanieves
Best Make-Up & Hair
Sylvie Imbert and Fermín Galán, Blancanieves
Best Special Effects
Pau Costa and Félix Bergés, The Impossible
Best Fiction Short
Aquel No Era Yo, by Estebán Crespo
Best Documentary SHort
A Story For The Modlins, by Sergio Oskman
Best Animated Short
El Vendedor De Humo, by Jaime Maestro
Fake ballots..lincoln will win just wait n see
best picture:ARGO;best actor:DANIEL DAY LEWIS FOR LINCOLN;best actress:EMMANUELLE RIVA FOR AMOUR;best supporting actor:TOMMY LEE JONES FOR LINCOLN;best actress:ANNE HATHAWAY FOR LES MISERABLE;best director:STEVEN SPIELBERG FOR LINNCOLN;best foreign film:AMOUR;best documentary:SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN;best animated:WRECK IT RALPH;best original screenplay:DJANGO UNCHAINED;best adapted screenplay:ARGO;best song:”SKYFALL” FROM SKYFALL.
Sorry, but a lot of people HATED “The Grey” and “Killing Them Softly.” We’ve all had films we love get ‘snubbed’ but this is what happens whenever you take a large vote from ANY population. It’s always going to be skewed one way or another.
Argo is only getting awards because Hollywood is in love with itself. Such lackluster choices are very unbecoming of such a tremendous year for cinema. Where are the nominations for movies like The Grey, Jesus Henry Christ and Killing them Softly? Read about the Top 10 Movies of 2012 with reviews and other honorable mentions at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2013/01/top-10-movie-picks-of-2012.html
The only time that #9 is counted is if someone did not fill the ballot out “correctly” (putting the same title twice, or omitting titles). If all 9 titles are listed, then #9 is never reached.
If you do not want to list a film in your selection for best pic, that is fine. Say you don’t like SLP, Argo, Lincoln, or Les Mis, so you rank the other five accordingly, that means that should it come down to two of the four you omitted, your ballot no longer counts. If you are ok with that, then fine.
My point is that some people express that they don’t need to rank all of them as the bean counters (me) won’t get to the 7th, 8th or 9th choices, which is not the case. I checked last year, and there were a number of people who had The Artist and Hugo in their bottom three. If one believes that the BP is between Argo and Lincoln, there are already ballots with those two in their bottom two.
So if you have an opinion on the nine films and want to rank all nine, then do so. Don’t assume because you selected films for your seventh and eighth preference that it won’t get to that rank on your ballot, because it might.
@Bryce – agree. Anna Karenina is much better than SLP and Joe Wright deserved a nod for BD instead of Russell.
Best picture (rankings)
1. Amour
2. Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Django Unchained
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Lincoln
6. Argo
7. Life of Pi
8. Silver Linings Playbook
9. Les Miserables
Dir: Michael Haneke, Amour
Actor: Joaquin Phenoix, The Master
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
S. Actor: Phillip Seymore Hoffman, The Master
S. Actress: Amy Adams, The Master
O. Screenplay: Michael Haneke, Amour
A. Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Cinematography: Skyfall
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Hair/Makeup: The Hobbit
Sound Mixing: Skyfall
Sound Editing: Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Animated Short: Paperman
Animated Feature: Paranorman
Documentary: How to Survive a Plague
@Christophe
Wait, the acting did work for me not the other way around
Fuck I can’t write for shit
@Fabinho
It’s the first time you’ve ever made sense. Wait, never mind, that’s from my comment. Hit me up next year. Girl, hit me up next year! I’s be there next year for the World Cup among ya’ll hoodlums <3
“And Aaron Taylor-Johnson
for being hottest piece of ass in
any movie this year. ”
It’s the first interesting thing Bryce Forestiere wrote here. 🙂
Ryan,
The #9 slot will never get counted bc there will always be smth before it, even in the very last round when there are 2 films standing and one of them finally gets over 50%.
@Bryce
A. Karenina felt garishly suffocating and the acting didn’t work for me either. I didn’t see characters living their lives but famous actors in glitzy attire doing their schtick. Alicia Vikander was good though but that’s about it.
@Antoinette
I don’t mind if they throw out my ballot for BP, as long as I can still vote in the other categories, but I can’t possibly decide how to rank 6 movies I disliked equally. Heck, it’s already hard enough to find even one movie I like among the nominees.
but I can’t possibly decide how to rank 6 movies I disliked equally.
alphabetically? seriously though, part of this process is an exercise in refining our hate as much as focusing out love 🙂
but seriously seriously, Rob, does it hurt to leave one or two slots blank? What if someone doesn’t want his ballot going into the Django pile under any circumstances? (asking for a friend)
Some of you guys just don’t get it. You always put your favorite first and always put the one you hate last. But you fill out the whole ballot no matter what or you might not count. The reason is the award could come down to your two least favorite movies. If it does and you left them off, your ballot goes in the garbage.
I didn’t see AMOUR but I put it in the middle of my ballot because I’d rather have it count for a movie I haven’t seen than for the one I really don’t want to win, which I also think has a chance. A sliver of a chance but I really don’t want my vote to count for that so I put it last.
Only voting for 3 or 4 is really a waste.
Couldn’t believe the Location: “Latin OR Central America?” question.
I’m wondering if they could opt for Moonrise Kingdom. Zero Dark Thirty is the favorite to win the WGA Award, but maybe they won’t go this way. There is too much negativity toward the film right now and I still don’t get it. How did this happen? But a win for Moonrise Kingdom would be both an award for a terrific script and an award for Wes Anderson. It could happen. It won’t change the Oscar race a bit because it’s up to Tarantino and Haneke. I love it how wide open so many of the races are this year and even though ARGO is probably a lock right now (and if it loses, it would be written about for months, but with all the support it won’t lose!), what else is locked up? Day-Lewis, unfortunately. He was terrific, but I wanted Phoenix to win this. He deserves it. Actress is up to Riva and Lawrence and I hope they won’t go for Lawrence, being the only good thing about a very disappointing film. Supporting Actress is locked up. And supporting actor is considered wide open, but let’s say it’s up to Tommy Lee Jones who has the strongest precursor and Waltz. If Argo wins the WGA and I believe it will, we’ll have two very competitive writing categories, which hasn’t happened in a long time.
Cinematography will be interesting. I love how the guild loves Deakins and will push for him again and again. He deserves it, but problem is how many voters realize they are voting for him and not for the film or the visuals in general. This category has to be voted by the branch alone. The BAFTA’s usually have more interesting winners in technical categories because of that.
Picture:
1.Silver Linings Playbook
2.Argo
3.Life of Pi
Director:: Steven Spielberg
Actor: DDL
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay: Silver Linings Playbook
Animated Feature: Brave
Foreign Film: Amour (as much as I do not want it to win, it will)
Song: Skyfall
Score: Life of Pi
Well, everyone knew Jack was winning, so that’s moot. Otherwise, I’m with you. I thought Waltz was great, but it wasn’t written for an Oscar. Honestly, the script itself wasn’t written for an Oscar either. I can’t wait to see whether the WGA has no choice but to award ZDT or if it’s truly untouchable.
Get the fuck out of here. I just saw ANNA KARENINA (4/5). How is it not nominated for more shit? Like Kiera Knightley for Best Actress instead of Jennifer Lawrence (she has no tits?) And Aaron Taylor-Johnson for being hottest piece of ass in any movie this year. Also Jude Law emulating Lawrence Oliver with all that “Acting” better than mediocre Kenneth Branagh in the dreadful MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (1/5); I for one thought he was brilliant so he could go instead of like Arkin?
It was pretty damn good and I would think right up AMPAS’ alley.
Also cannot think why the gays didn’t embrace this more that LES MIZ.
Well, Nicholson defeated Peter Fonda in Ulee’s Gold and Robert Duvall in The Apostle and judging from the performances – Nicholson was the weak link.
And by the way, Waltz won’t win the Oscar. My guess is that he won’t even be second. There is no passion about most of the performances (De Niro and Arkin have no business being nominated). But I believe this Oscar is locked up – Tommy Lee Jones will take it.
Of course everybody wants to make the race interesting, but Tommy Lee Jones has the SAG and had had a terrific year. He’s won 20 years ago and unlike De Niro he came back afterwards and didn’t make shit for two decades. I don’t understand the Waltz thing. It feels like a second-tier Hans Landa, he’s just the good guy this time around. And given whoever his character was (and he was smart and knew how to make everything perfect, how to manipulate everyone and turn out the victor), I simply don’t buy his Chekhov act. But that’s me.
And I hate the idea of him winning a second Oscar for virtually the same part (well, the writing wasn’t what it was the last time!) and for a LEADING role. Last time he was an unknown actor and supporting made sense. This time around it’s a fraud. Isn’t it fun that 50 years ago a star with 10 minutes in a film would prefer to die and not campaign supporting and today all these stars try to make us all buy their supporting classification just to win an Oscar?
I believe that three of the SAG winners will win Oscars, with Jennifer Lawrence being the only exception. The Riva thing gets stronger and stronger.
Well, Dianne Wiest winning twice for Woody Allen, even if they were quite different performances and her competish was weak, debunks the notion of a strong stigma against returning actor-director-writer pairs.
Technically Walter Brennan is in the group as well.
He won two of his films for films directed by William Wyler – even though Come and Get It has 3 directors listed.
Ugh. OK, at least twice. But arguably their competition was weak?
Now how did Waltz go from being the uncertain 4th or 5th nominee to the winner or runner-up?
Diane Wiest won twice for films with Woody Allen.
“Has any actor ever won more than one Oscar for working with the same director/writer?”
Out of the top of my head that would be Jack Nicholson winning twice for a James L. Brooks movie, but I’m sure there’s more.
rufussondheim, it does make sense when I know damn well that the people on this site won’t vote for Django or Les Mis or Amour or Beasts or ZDT enough to win. I did enjoy Argo, but when I say it’s really my 3rd, my numbers 2 through 8 are really all on the same level. Only Lincoln stands out as superior to the rest. So I’d rather see our votes spread the wealth even if it’s to a film I like slightly less than Argo, than see that film win one more BP award, real or otherwise.
Koleś, I still think Tommy Lee Jones has a great shot at the Oscar. I predicted Waltz to win the BAFTA, because he’s European, they love Tarantino, and they weren’t going to go for the very American Jones and the even more American Lincoln any more than they had to. Those wigs? Congress? No, I didn’t think so.
But TLJ is a stereotypical Supporting Actor performance, he won SAG, and Waltz won so recently, so TLJ has to be the frontrunner.
Has any actor ever won more than one Oscar for working with the same director/writer? (Discounting Harold Russell!) Would Waltz be the first? I loved him in Django, but it was more of a star turn than a character turn, and too close to Hans. I recognize though that the SAG snub only happened because Harvey didn’t send out screeners in time, so it means little.
This was fun, thanks AD for these kind of activities.
My personal choices from the Oscars nominations:
Zero Dark Thirty (Picture)
Michael Haneke (Director)
Joaquin Phoenix (Actor)
Jessica Chastain (Actress)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (S. Actor)
Anne Hathaway (S. Actress)
Zero Dark Thirty (Original Screenplay)
Silver Linings Playbook (Adapted Screenplay)
Amour (Foreign)
Frankenweenie (Animation)
Skyfall (Cinematography)
Zero Dark Thirty (Editing)
Anna Karenina (Productions Design)
Life of Pi (Visual Effects)
Mirror Mirror (Costumes)
Les Miserables (Makeup and Hair)
Les Miserables (Sound Mixing)
Skyfall (Sound Editing)
Life of Pi (Score)
Skyfall (Song)
Picture Nominees Ranked:
1. Zero Dark Thirty (A)
2. Amour (A)
3. Beasts of the Southern Wild (A)
4. Silver Linings Playbook (A)
5. Life of Pi (A-)
6. Django Unchained (A-)
7. Argo (A-)
8. Lincoln (B+)
9. Les Miserables (B+)
No really, what’s with the AwardsDaily’s Awards? We had a very different nominations line-up and I hoped to vote for PTA 🙁
“what’s with the AwardsDaily’s Awards? We had a very different nominations line-up “
Max G
we go to war with nominees we have, not the nominees we might want or wish to have.
Since the first phase of the simulated ballot makes it clear from the internal numbers which of the AwardsDaily readers’ “alternate” nominees came out on top, we always do it this way. We make our wishes known, but then we face reality for phase two and use the deck of cards the Academy has dealt.
So, Zach, you put films you liked less than Argo above Argo to teach Hollywood a lesson?
Yeah, that makes sense 🙁
Not sure about the Oscar rules but in normal preferential balloting if you don’t list all of the choices and instead only put down 3 of the 9 you run the risk of your ballot not counting. If all 3 of your choices get eliminated your ballot then gets eliminated, your vote does not count towards a default “None of the Above.” And when your ballot gets eliminated, the total number of ballots gets reduced and the number of ballots needed to win gets reduced as a result.
That WAS fun. Guess what? Argo is probably my third favorite of the nominees, at worst, but I ranked it #8 (only above SLP) in an effort to vote AGAINST it. Take note, Academy. You can do it too!
What is this, I thought we were voting on our own nominations?
Found the link.
Foriegn film noms: It’s War Witch, not War Watch (not that anybody is gonna vote for it).
@Sammy
Not really. Right now it’s a done deal. “Argo” is unstoppable.
Everybody here is talking about Argo, Lincoln. What about other films? Do they have the potential to spring a surprise BP win?
The link to the ballot is gone.
Link is still there, Steve. Click the words Vote Now.
I put them in Bold to be easier to see, but that might have been confusing if it makes the link color go away. I’ll add another backup link so there will be two places to click. Thanks.
Where’s the ballot?
Hurray for Gotye!!!
What’s weird is that I started voting with the clear idea that I’m a huge Zero Dark Thirty supporter and in the end I voted for it in only two categories – picture and editing. I would have voted for directing, but Bigelow isn’t nominated. And I’d like to have been able to vote for Clarke in supporting actor – it’s a terrific performance and had it been delivered by somebody better known, Oscar would have been locked up.
Picture – Zero Dark Thirty
2. Amour
3. Beasts
4. Lincoln
5. Argo
6. Life of Pi
7. Silver Linings
8. Django
9. Les Miserables
I don’t like the last three films.
Directing – Amour
Actor – Joaquin Phoenix
Actress – Emmanuelle Riva
Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress – Amy Adams
Original Screenplay – Moonrise Kingdom
Adapted Screenplay – Lincoln
Cinematography – Skyfall (go Deakins!)
Editing – Zero Dark Thirty
Music (Score) – Life of Pi
Music (Song) – Skyfall
Sound Mixing – Skyfall
Sound Editing – Skyfall
Animated Feature Film – ParaNorman
Production Design – Les Miserables
Costume Design – Les Miserables (not a fan of Anna Karenina)
Make-up & Hair – Les Miserables
Visual Effects – Life of Pi
Foreign Language Film – Amour
Documentary – Searching for Sugarman
I’m 23, from Europe, an undergrad student in the field of performance arts. I know an Academy voter from my studies.
PICTURE: Argo
DIRECTOR: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
ACTRESS: Emanuelle Riva, Amour
SUP ACTOR: Alan Arkin, Argo
SUP ACTRESS: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo
ANIMATED FILM: Frankenwenie
FOREIGN FILM: Amour
DOCUMENTARY: How To Survive A Plague
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: No selection
SHORT FILM (a): Fresh Guacamole
SHORT FILM (l.a.): Death Of A Shadow
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi
COSTUMES: Anna Karenina
EDITING: Argo
MAKEUP: The Hobbit
MUSIC: Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Life Of Pi
SONG: Skyfall
SOUND EDITING: Argo
SOUND MIXING: Argo
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
@Ashwin Pinto
“Should I give ‘Lincoln’ just one win since that is what will probably happen at the Oscars? It got just one Bafta win despite getting the most nominations a record.”
Gangs of New York had 12 BAFTA nominations and also won only for Best Actor. As we all remember GONY went down in flames at the Oscars. DDL probably would have gotten the only oscar for the movie if it wasn’t for some stiff competition that he got from Nicholson. That resulted in a voice split and a spectacular win by Brody. DDL has no one to threaten him this year, so he’s in, but I agree that the scenario of him winning the only award for Lincoln is looking more and more likely.
Waltz winning is still a shocker. Does that put him in front of TLJ? What about De Niro? Is Arkin back on the radar due to all the “Argo” love? TLJ was supposed to be the “second” sho-in for Lincoln. Right now nothing is certain. Waltz won 3 years ago for something that is argueably on of the best supporting performances in cinematic history. Django however is not even near that level. Plus he is actually the co-lead, same as Gyllenhaal in BM (he also won the BAFTA for supporting). So despite the Globe and now BAFTA I still don’t think Waltz will win. TLJ? His chances are growing smaller each day. I don’t think he’ll win. It might be De Niro vs. … well … Arkin 🙂
As for the places where Lincoln might look for a second win. I don’t see it winning any technicals, especially when the movie was snubbed for Make-up. Kaminski is probably last in line among the cinematographers. Editing? Argo all the way (with a slight chance of a ZDT win). Art Direction, Costumes? That’s a battle between Life of Pi, Anna Karenina and Les Miserables. Screenplay? With the scripter (and probably the WGA) going Argo’s way and BAFTA providing another shocker and giving it to SLP, I don’t think Kushner stands a chance anymore. Sally Field? Long gone. Hathaway wins by a mile.
That leaves two categories. One in score. Williams is facing some serious heat from Danna, but he might well win the sympathy vote. However Danna also generates symapthy vote. He is due as hell. Never nominated, but has been providing wonderfull work for over 2 decades (“Sweet Hereafter” and “Ice Storm” among the best). You also have to consider a potential upset from Desplat who almost won two years ago, has been snubbed for some movies he should have been nominated for (“Syriana” and “Girl with a Pearl Earring”). He has 5 noms and no win, that’s nowwhere near Thomas Newman, but still it might feel like it’s his time. And speaking of Newman, he also might pull of a surprise win, but only on the due card. His work on Skyfall is far from being his best.
The last one is of course Spielberg and to be honest I have no idea who will win director. I simply don’t. Affleck won too many director awards to leave even a hint of a guidline who is the distant second. It’s anyone’s game, but Spielberg is certainly high in the ranking and I think he will win.
Rob Y.
What’s that supposed to mean? If I only filled #1,2,3 will my vote still count? i have seen all bp contenders but most of them i really don’t want to vote for whatsoever. also, there are a bunch of categories I left void because I don’t know anything about them or have no opinion, is it ok?
Some have noted on other threads that they really don’t need to select all nine placements for Best Picture. That is incorrect. If you loved Silver Linings Playbook and hated Lincoln and Argo and ranked them (#1, #8, and #9) and it came down to those three films as the last three, your vote is still cast for SLP. But should SLP have the lowest votes of the three, then your vote goes to your number 8 namely Lincoln.
Picture:
1. Les Misérables
2. Spielberg’s Film
3. Life of Pi
Director:: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Hugh Jackman
Actress: Naomi Watts
Supporting Actor: Some Old Fart
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
Adapted Screenplay: Life of Pi
Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
Foreign Film: A Royal Affair
Song: Skyfall
Score: Life of Pi
I hope David O’Russell will get a chance to repeat his ugly-ass frown at the Oscars when Riva wins again.
^ Despite what happened at BAFTA (and what Scott Feinberg has been predicting for weeks), I don’t think Waltz will actually win the Oscar. I think it’s going to TLJ, so Lincoln will probably win at least 2.
Should I give ‘Lincoln’ just one win since that is what will probably happen at the Oscars? It got just one Bafta win despite getting the most nominations a record. If ‘Lincoln’ gets just one Oscar will that become the major talking point?
Argo, 7 for 7.
Pic: My Ranking: Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Amour
Dir: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Actor: Hugh Jackman
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
S. Actor: Robert De Niro
S. Actress: Anne Hathaway
O. Screenplay: Django Unchained
A. Screenplay: Silver Linings Playbook
Editing: Silver Linings Playbook
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Costume Design: Les Miserables
Production Design: Les Miserables
Hair/Makeup: Les Miserables
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Animated Short: Paperman
Animated Feature: Wreck it Ralph
My Ballot
PICTURE: Zero Dark Thirty
DIRECTOR: Michael Haneke
ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix
ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence
SUP ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones
SUP ACTRESS: Helen Hunt
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Silver Linings Playbook
ANIMATED FILM: ParaNorman
FOREIGN FILM: Amour
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Lincoln
EDITING: Argo
There are 3 things I would absolutely love to happen but probably/definitely won’t. Amy to finally be recognized, Jessica and Jennifer to tie and Zero Dark Thirty to go home with Best Picture.Sigh
Fun stuff!
PICTURE: Django Unchained
DIRECTOR: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
ACTOR: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
ACTRESS: Emanuelle Riva, Amour
SUP ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
SUP ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Django Unchained
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo
ANIMATED FILM: ParaNorman
FOREIGN FILM: Kon-Tiki
DOCUMENTARY: The Invisible War
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Open Heart
SHORT FILM (a): Fresh Guacamole
SHORT FILM (l.a.): Asad
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi
COSTUMES: Anna Karenina
EDITING: Argo
MAKEUP: The Hobbit
MUSIC: Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Anna Karenina
SONG: Skyfall
SOUND EDITING: Life of Pi
SOUND MIXING: Skyfall
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro
Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Original Score: Lincoln
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
I really like “Lincoln” and “Life of Pi,” but “Amour” and “Beasts” were this year’s real standouts to me!
Oh and Foreign Language: Amour
Thanks for the simulated ballot system Sasha. An Argo win on Oscar night won’t be a calamity a la Forrest Gump, Dances With Wolves, or Gladiator, but it will still sting given some of the outstanding films it would beat (Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Amour). I’m still grasping onto my Lincoln pearls for dear life (I had to throw my ZD30 Heart of the Ocean over the deck alongside John Hawkes after nominations morning), but I’m still hoping for good things come Oscar night.
But no matter what happens February 24th, at least I got to revel and David O’Russell’s reaction to Emmanuelle Riva winning Best Actress tonight (see 2:45 of this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37u99sEhfKY)
Ballot!
Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Original Score: Life of Pi
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Documentary: How To Survive a Plauge
Action Short: Asad
Action Animated: Adam and Dog
Makeup: Hitchcock
P.S. I’m white, twenty-one years old, from New York, and I go to school with the daughter of an Academy member who swipes screeners from him.
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
Write-in vote for Best Director- Ben Affleck, ARGO
I still haven’t seen AMOUR. No idea if I’ll have the opportunity by Oscar night, but I kinda don’t want to either.
I filled in with DJANGO UNCHAINED, SILVER LINING’S PLAYBOOK, and THE HOBBIT where I could. I put SKYFALL down in a few places. But yeah, I expect LINCOLN to win everything with this crowd.
Ooh, that was fun!
I really went whole hog for Les Mis in the tech categories. I know Lincoln will win them all because, well, Sasha’s many pro-Lincoln articles pull in the pro-Lincoln voters so this is all kind of silly in my opinion.
But go Zero Dark Thirty! Hopefully there are enough of us sensible people to recognize the true masterpiece of this season.