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Best Actress – Who Will Take it Home?

I don’t think we’ve had such a seemingly wide open race in a long time.  On the one hand, general consensus, and even Nate Silver, believe it will be a Jennifer Lawrence shut-out. And indeed, she seems like she has it in the bag.  Silver Linings has four acting nominations – it’s going to have to win at least one and Lawrence seems like as good a bet as any.  But they nominated Riva, they’re inviting her to their party – it’s hard for me to believe they would do that and then not award her a well deserved win.  But many of our readers and many out there are Lawrence fans who will be tuning in to the Oscars JUST to watch her.  In this category, for me personally, it’s a win/win. All five of them would be great choices. But what do you think readers?

65 Comments on this Post

  1. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour should win this hands down. It would be quite embarrassing if she didn’t. This is her one shot chance. I can’t see the Academy giving both a 22 year old and 30 year old their top actress awards.

  2. The J Viewer

    Here, I voted for Riva but it failed to load properly (so my vote — prediction — didn’t exist). However, for the time being, from the results shown here so far it looks like some readers seem to have been torn like I do as well — 50/50 between Lawrence and Riva for now.

    I love Jennifer Lawrence. But, SLP, in my opinion, is most likely to go home with a basket full of eggs. ( :

  3. Pierre de Plume

    The smart money is still on Lawrence. If I were voting in a pool with winning my goal, my strategy would be to vote for her.

    On the other hand, I’m willing to take the risk for ultimate glory: Riva for the much-deserved win.

  4. Christina

    I am appalled that Lawrence was even nominated for that okay performance…likewise Bradley Cooper and Weaver. So…with that being said, De Niro is the only one who should have a chance at winning…which he won’t.

    It’s not that I don’t think they did a good job, they did…but, DAYUM, this is OSCAR. I’d like to see some one of a kind performances that I could actually say were in the top 5 of the year! Come on!!

    Emmanuelle Riva all the way please!

  5. The J Viewer

    Actually, they were not really torn or anything since in the end they had to choose only one title. [Sorry.]

  6. Naomi Watts in the shock of the night.

  7. If Emmanuelle Riva doesn’t win, the only other win I would tolerate would be Naomi Watts. Just plz not JLaw. I do like her, but plz no.

  8. I really hope Riva wins. That would make me very happy and confirm that the Academy votes on merit at least sometimes. God knows they probably won’t in Adapted Screenplay and Picture. However, I voted for Lawrence because I ultimately think she will prevail. I don’t think Riva should get an award because she’s old, and Lawrence shouldn’t have to wait until she’s older. It should be about the performance, but with Lawrence I feel like it’ll be the SLP love, not really the fact that she was the best.

  9. Bball_Jake

    I have this gut feeling that Jessica Chastain is going to win.

  10. Jerry Grant

    Gotta look within yourself and ask, Will the Academy really fail to vote for the best female performance of the year? This is going to Emmanuelle Riva.

  11. Pierre de Plume

    I’d enjoy seeing Hushpuppy (Wallis) win just to see the audience’s reaction. The Academy has done much worse.

  12. SeattleMoviegoer

    please not Lawrence. Would be just another throwaway Oscar that perpetuates the Babe factor in the Best Actress category. she was “ok” and nothing more. Watts was amazing. shouldn’t “amazing” be a factor in winning?

  13. Paul V, I think that Waltz was submitted in lead and didn’t make it into that very crowded category. I am still picking him for Supporting Actor, but it’s very close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if I was wrong. Animated, Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, and Supporting Actor are so up in the air.

    Ryman, your predictions are interesting so far. I just started listening.

  14. daveinprogress

    Pierre: On the other hand, I’m willing to take the risk for ultimate glory: Riva for the much-deserved win.

    Jerry: Gotta look within yourself and ask, Will the Academy really fail to vote for the best female performance of the year? This is going to Emmanuelle Riva.

    Seattlemoveigoer: shouldn’t “amazing” be a factor in winning?

    Exactemente, mon frere!
    La Riva!

  15. Riva should win. Jen will win. Either way I’ll be happy. Jen however has a few more films she just signed on for that could garner her a nod in either lead or supporting.

  16. I think it’s going to be Lawrence because…. well, never underestimate Weinstein.
    Though I won’t be dissapointed if Riva wins either.
    I only feel somehow bad for Chastain. Hopefully it’s true that she will win someday.

    Watts has good chances next year. Hey, even if Diana get mixed reviews, as long as her performance is raved, she’ll become a favorite.
    History has prooven that more than once. ;)

  17. Riva hands down, no contest at all! If Jennifer Lawrence wins it will be just another Gwyneth moment. Please no!!!

    The question I have is who will translate for Riva when she wins? Jean Dujardin perhaps ?

  18. Lawrence gave the best performance of the five and should be rewarded.

  19. I’m old enough to have seen one borderline criminal highway robbery on TV; the men’s basketball gold medal game of the Munich Olympics between the U.S, and Russia. Any other name than Jennifer Lawrence’s in that envelope tomorrow and it will rank right alongside that. Annie Hall over Star Wars bad. Career/lifetime achievement awards have their own category; the Jean Hirschfeld honor. Just once, Academy, let the collective will of the American moviegoing populace carry the day. Don’t punish Lawrence for being this good, this soon. Or else run the risk of having the Oscars perceived as a good old folks network taking care of one of their own.

  20. Watermelons

    Though it may be unorthodox I am still hoping for the great Oscar-winner Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, The Holiday) to garner a last-minute announced nomination and victory for Best Actress at this weekend’s Oscar Awards Ceremony in Hollywood.

    -Watermelons

  21. I have seen all of the best actress nominated performances, and my personal preference for a win would have to be Jessica Chastain or Quvenzhane Wallis. I absolutely love both performances, and I would be happy if either actresses won tomorrow night. I am not as enamored of Emmanuelle Riva’s performance like many people here partly because I felt Jean Louis Trintignant performance was more eminent and extremely profound. His performance was what elevated the film for me, and I wished he had been nominated for best actor.

    Personally, I find Silver Linings Playbook annoying as a whole, and I hope Jennifer Lawrence receives an Oscar one day for a much better performance than for a role that is just not fully developed. The film is so half-baked that it felt like a drive-through burger joint spot. I will be very disappointed if that film receives a single Oscar tomorrow night.

  22. That old lady is not winning on my watch – I would be happy to see either Jennifer or Jessica win. Their performances were both bold.

  23. Damn, Tom O’Neil and the people in the last Gold Derby GChat. They are making me think there is hope for Chastain! I still say Riva but now I have this odd hope of her winning that I feel like I will be unfulfilled. Especially when I really need to go in as ZD30 partisan thinking this no good Academy will shut them out- and to then be pleasantly surprised when it wins for Sound Editing or something far minor than actress.

    Personally, I am not punishing Jennifer Lawrence for being this good, this early. First of all, I would not have guessed she was 22 (Just like I would not have guessed Chastain was in early to mid 30s) so I am not using the age card. Secondly, I just did not think the performance was a good ‘LEADING’ role. It felt closer to supporting. It was not like Keaton in Annie Hall where the film explicitly stated the reasons why her character existed entirely connected to the character of Alvy Singer. Here she has no real agency beyond being tied to Bradley Cooper’s character and no scenes of her independent of him really exist in the film. It also did not feel that complicated of a role. She had the showiest scenes and just reading the dialogue you knew this was a showy role. And for more selfish reasons, I just think her career track would be vulnerable to the Best Actress curse.

  24. I agree, If Riva doesnt win it’s not such a crime, She’s not rubbed, Christ.

    Only yet to have seen Chastain,And i bet i would like it very much
    We’ll see,

    I’ts interesting how a lot of people here got so manipulated against Jlaw …

  25. Jennifer Lawrence shouldn’t win for this, it’s like Sandra Bullock winning all over again, though she was better than Bullock but we have better competition this year in the category than we had in 2009. For me the winner should be either Riva or Chastain. I mean have people forgot the last scene of ZD30 where Chastain emotes her silent relief after all the action and violence she has witnessed and been through for ten years. It was one of the most beautiful scenes of the year, i could give Chastain an Oscar for that scene alone. Just look at the tiny details of expression that passes on her face. There was nothing of that sort in Lawrence’s performance, she made people laugh but nothing more to remember either in her character or her performance.

  26. Jennifer Lawrence is going to win. She has already ready won the golden globe, screen actors guild and more critic awards than anyone else, on top of that, she is the break out star coming off of one previous nomination in this category and two highly successful action movies. Let’s face it. She is beautiful, has a promising future to become only better with age and the academy likes to award someone that has a seriously outstanding future ahead of her.

  27. OK. seems like i’m the only one who thinks Chastain can still win.
    First of all, I don’t see Lawrence winning. I don’t think they’re going to give it to someone who doesn’t take her job seriously, like not even memorizing the lines or whatever like you guys mentioned. Yes she’s a babe and likable. but that cockiness is not going to win her the Oscars.
    and then there’s Riva. I don’t think except from these critics groups, no one in American even watches the film or cares who Riva is. She’s a foreigner. Yes her performance is great. But come on. I saw the film last week, and the only thing I could come up with why she’s been taken so seriously is because of the fact that she’s old. Now, if the academy wants it, they can give it to Haneke for the brilliant script but not Riva.
    So let me come up to Chastain and why i think she’s going to win.
    I believe the voters give their votes base on who they want to acknowledge most out of the five nominees in a certain year. In this case, it has to be Chastain. Now, remember that the voters are actors, and they have so much respect for her. They understand her range, her body of work, and that very well-crafted performance. She’s known as a serious actor. And her speech at the Globes? Come on. They’re not going to not acknowledge her.
    And btw, the same thing with DeNiro. I think he’s winning. I doubt they’re going to just ignore him.
    They’re going to acknowledge the comeback of one of the greatest actors!! SO….

  28. HANDS DOWN!..ITS RIVA!..Jennifer Lawrence its still young and her performance was Good,by any standard,she’s a very talented young woman,saying that her time will come when she really develops into a much mature adult,and she Can wait..Emanuelle Riva gave a Class in acting just looking into our souls in every scene that she was in AMOUR..!

  29. JLaw winning the poll and will win the Oscar.

  30. Pierre de Plume

    Though it may be unorthodox I am still hoping for the great Oscar-winner Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, The Holiday) to garner a last-minute announced nomination and victory for Best Actress at this weekend’s Oscar Awards Ceremony in Hollywood.

    Where’s Anonymous when you need them?

    Just to clarify, I think JLaw did a great job in SLP. My hesitation is over the role, which could’ve been better written. Being exceptionally and naturally talented, she made the most out of it. I happen to feel that Riva did a better job in a better role. I feel the same way about Chastain’s Maya — Chastain is great and would work wonders with a better, more Oscar-friendly role. Wallis is a force of nature, and Watts is underrated.

  31. moreover, i wasn’t thoroughly satisfied with SLP on whole, after near perfect first hour the film just falls flat in the second hour. The film could’ve explored so much more, it could’ve gone in various exciting and interesting directions but rather it chose to go for a stupid dance competition and fucking game of football. none of these bullshit subplots help the characters develop further nor do they add weight to the story. they just put the story at halt and bam! when you finally get rid of them, the film ends.

  32. what i meant to say about Riva is, not that she’s old. I meant she fits the role perfectly. For me, it’s Haneke’s brilliant script that struck me. but still, her performance and the role she got to play was better than Lawrence.
    that said, it’s Chastain all the way for me

  33. Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE

    I ust want to point out to everyone why th public care less and less bout oscar attention to the following points from a previous article
    re the title of that article: ‘oscar turns its back on the rules’ how about this one?
    quite bemusing, amusing and extremely sad for the passionate movie going public.
    But i add to that they most certainly right for oscar are:
    -abandoning 3/4 of a century old principle that the most nominated film wins and most of the time deserves to win best pic and the big ones
    -abandoning common sense and logic= a film that is both universally acclaimed and embraced with upmost enthusiasm by the public is a deserved oscar winner
    -abandoning common sense of the principal that AMPAS stands for academy or motion picture arts and sciences meaning in translation the best of the best is either memorable in ensuring years to come or is innovative or groundvbreaking or bold
    -abandoning the principle that films for best pic winner is not determined by celebrity status or iowe u nonsense, but rather the director that put the most time effort and energy and the hype by the public and critics leading to it and the pay off and outcome is as good as the speculation.
    -effectively abandoning the core principle that rational and makes sense that a film that does not win best director as well as best picture at least is not a deserving winner only a deserving contender
    -potentially risk of jeopardizing oscars integrity and repuation to the public that incidentally propr up it ratings by giving barely 3 oscars at the most to the best pic winner with potentially only one or 2 of those ‘big’ awards
    -abandoning the wisdom that the fiilm that wins a balance between most acting awards and tech awards shoudl win best picture.
    I predict lincoln will win 3 oscars sadly not best pic but i really hope i wrong…and that will tie it with the so called best picture bullshit of the year which in itself only will win 3 and i wonder has there been any time in oscar history where the best picture film winner wins only as muany awards as the runner up?
    EDIT I NEED TO ADD IMPORTANT TO CONTEXTUALIZE THIS POINT ABOVE: “-effectively abandoning the core principle that rational and makes sense that a film that does not win best director as well as best picture AND A MAIN ACTOR AWARD OR ALTERNATIVELY AT LEAST 3 TECH ACHIEVE AWARDS at least is not a deserving winner only a deserving contender”
    that what i meant

  34. I think Chastain is out. Not because of the torture but because hers is not a showy, baity role.

    I think Watts is the best performance, very demanding, great range, but she doesnt have the buzz and her film didn’t arouse much AMPAS interest (even though it should have)

    Wallis has no chance.

    Lawrence was better in Winters Bone and Hunger Games. I like her SLP performance but to me it isn’t best actress calibre, although neither was Sandra Bullocks or Julia Roberts, just to name a few, and she is better than those.

    I’m rooting for Riva. This is her one shot. There is little doubt Chastain and Lawrence will be nominated in future, and win, and I wonder about them splitting the votes. The Riva birthday thing will be hard to ignore.

  35. Reichdome, I predict when Argo wins, it won’t raise much of a fuss, it will be seen as the film that won everything beforehand, and the story will be how did the Affleck snub happen. The world will not end.

  36. I hate to say it… but Jennifer Lawrence is easily my least favorite of the bunch. I just didn’t get why everyone thought she was so fantastic in SLP. She was good, don’t get me wrong, but I thought all 4 other actress were better.

  37. David Lindsey

    I am having a gut feeling that Watts could walk away with this. I was thinking Riva at one point, but after seeing AMOUR I have this feeling that the Academy might be put off by its cold aloofness. I actually admire Riva’s performance more, but I have a sense that we are underestimating the Academy’s desire to honor Watts. Besides it is a more sentimental performance. Perhaps too sentimental?

  38. Back when I was a youngin and me and my friends gathered to watch the Oscars (started win High School and we still do 20 years later!!!) an odd, gut-feeling that went against the media-majority-predicted winner came to be known as a “Brenda Fricker-feeling.” Most of the prognosticators at the time (and this was before bloggers) either predicted Lena Olin or Anjelica Huston. A few, even Julia Roberts but there weren’t many Frickers out there. The night before the Oscars she came to me and I knew. Simple and ridiculous as that. (Of course I didn’t predict DDL that year and it should have gone hand in hand).

    Getting a strong Jessica Chastain vibe today. Of course it could be that I want her to win. It could also be that I’m really hungry. Just sayin. But I’m really not feeling it’s going to be Lawrence.

    If SLP has to win one–I’m thinking DeNiro.

  39. The closer we get to tomorrow night, the more I think Riva’s going to win it. Not just because the performance was amazing, but being the oldest acting nominee ever, I don’t think the voters will pass over the opportunity to give her the Oscar. And, her birthday is tomorrow. Just think of how wonderfully historical this moment will be.

  40. ““Brenda Fricker-feeling”

    Sound like something printed on a bucket of fried chicken.

    I never go with last minute gut-feelings. They are always wrong. My accuracy is better in November, before I’ve seen anything.

  41. Greg Schlager

    Riva is a fad, and all that craziness is absolutely nonsensical. Everybody will forget her on Monday morning. Consider her lucky to be even nominated (she probably took Cotillard’s 5th slot). I loved Amour, was hypnotized, but IMO Trintignant was the real gem in it. And please, people who say she’s gonna win because of the b’day factor is too hard to ignore, well, I’m very happy you’re not voting members of the Academy, because thinking like that is just fucked up!

    Lawrence will win since she’s the It girl now, she’s been a favorite the whole award season and has the most promising future in Hollywood.

    Chastain was the name on everyone’s lips 2 months ago, but ZDT has had very poor support compared to SLP (again, 4 acting noms mean something).

    Wallis makes me think of Catalina Sandino Moreno or Keisha Castle-Hughes a couple years ago. A young curiosity, thank you for coming.

    Watts’ role pushes ALL Oscar buttons if you check history and patterns. In fine, she should win. I’d be so happy if she wins.

  42. Paul Voorhies

    OMFG! I just put Lawrence up by one vote! Less than .2% difference.

    I kind of hope that AD is right and that Riva wins, but I’ll be fine with Lawrence.

    Anyone catch Tom O’Neill and Huffington’s podcast? Not only do they make fun of people who think that Riva can actually win, but they made fun of Riva herself. Ageist xenophobic jerks, if you ask me. Truly despicable stuff.

  43. PAULH,

    Look, I know this might be hard for you to conceive but stay with me here…

    I get that you love Lawrence. I do too. She is phenomenal and farr too good than her age should allow. Her role in SLP is great and she hits it out of the ballpark. I would vote for her… if I had not seen Amour the other day.

    Riva owns Lawrence. She deserves it. At the very least why don’t you see Amour, or even the other nominees before you make sweeping accusations about highway robbery. If you had seen Amour, watching it objectively without bias, you would see where the real highway robbery of tomorrow night is likely to take place when Lawrence’s name is read.

    I really do look forward to your thoughts on this, if you see fit to reply.

  44. I dont know why people assume that Oscars are about the performance only! And the same people that supported S.Bullock a few years ago now say “best performance” shold win!!!! In a world where Bullock is an Oscar winner, both J.Lawrence and J.Chastain deserve to be winner as well, even only based on their performances….

  45. Lawrence & Riva tied at 349 votes apiece after I voted for the dancing nympho. I haven’t read the book so I don’t know if Tiffany’s sexcapades were real or just tall tales given she’s a pathological liar.

  46. My money is on Riva but at this point I’ll be happy if anyone wins so long as Jennifer Lawrence loses.

  47. “Riva is a fad”

    I’m putting this on a T-shirt just so I can see the confused looks on people’s faces in Walmart.

  48. If Jennifer Lawrence wins tomorrow, watching her accept the award over the other 4 nominees will be so embarrassing. Yes, even over Wallis.

    I don’t even think she deserved to be nominated. It is such a forced performance–yes, she is a “pathological liar” but the entire performance is just histrionics and mood swings. Even in the scene (on youtube) that she decides she wants to leave her sister’s house, I think Julia Stiles outacts her–Lawrence is simply just trying too hard.

    The best performances of the year are by Chastain, Watts, and especially Riva. Riva’s performance is fearless and I think she is going to win.

  49. Elizabeth

    Dear Sasha,
    First and foremost, thank you so much for your dedicated, incisive, and thoughtful reporting / commentary of film and its annual honors; you are truly a joy to read as you write with such depth and honesty. I would like to also express, on the note of the Best Actress nominees, I have seen both Silver Linings Playbook as well as Amour, unfortunately not yet ‘The Impossible,’ Beasts of the Southern Wild,’ or Zero Dark Thirty,’ although I was able to see Jessica Chastain in The Heiress on Broadway this winter and I personally thought she was extraordinary in it), thus I can only reference Jennifer Lawrence and Emmanuelle Riva’s performance, to which is to say, I feel there is simply no possible comparison; Emmanuelle Riva is in a class to her own. I lived in Paris recently and could understand most of the film in French, which certainly helped to understand the nuances, I just felt her work was the most beautiful, honest and heartfelt I have ever yet experienced in a cinematic work of art. It is of course my great wish she is honored with the Best Actress at the Academy Awards, although I believe her performance transcends any possible reference to the simplicity of any singular award.

  50. Elizabeth

    As one additional note to share, I was encouraged to read this reader’s commentary in follow to Nate Silver’s blog on predicting the Oscars:
    kicksotic
    New York, NY
    “Since the BAFTAs there has been a lot of talk (here in LA) about choosing Riva instead of Lawrence. Most of the people I know were a bit reluctant to give an Oscar to a 22 year old with a handful of films under her belt. Because of this, and a few other reasons, I saw a huge movement toward Riva in the last week or so of voting. It would not surprise me if Lawrence sits this one out with Riva taking home Best Actress.”

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/

  51. I will be honest with everyone by saying if the Oscars were to be held in late March as they used to be for the longest time in the 1980’s and 1990’s Riva would win. This is not the case however, and just because she won at the BAFTA awards does not automatically make her the front runner. Whether you are happy or disappointed by Lawrence being nominated or winnig she will more than likely be named Best Actress at this ceremony. This is a 95% percent certainty as she has won the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actress. These two award show that lead up to the Oscar are more of a indicator of who will win on Oscar night. As for the extreme hate that is being said by some of the comments posted is yes she is young. She will not be the youngest however, and find most of the criticism that surrounds her is the fact she has been the front runner the entire time. This criticism stems from the fact the Oscars have become as serious political campaign and some years are worse than others. As very clear with this years Oscar race, where people point out Lawrence is too young, Chastain is too one-dimensional, Watts was too emotional throughout etc. Then we have the Affleck snub as well as the Bigalow snub, yet Argo seems to be the movie to win it all because of the former mentioned snub. All and all, this has become a very crazy Oscar race and it will be interesting who wins what to say the least.

  52. I had to smile a bit when I read the line that Riva is a fad and that everyone will forget her on Monday morning. Let me think a minute. BAFTA, Cannes, Ceasar,and a host of others I don’t see how anyone is going to just forget her. I hoping for Riva. But I wouldn’t have a coronary if anyone else won in this category. In order of preference…. after Riva they’re all pretty much on the same playing field.

  53. My head says Lawrence, but my heart really wants Riva to win.
    Funny enough, in yahoo.com, people were saying who the hell is Riva? What has she ever done? And they go on to lament that nowadays where’s actresses like Hepburn etc. Hello, have you seen “Hiroshima, Mon Amour”?

  54. I can’t help but literally LOL when I read people still getting their panties in a twist over Sandra Bullock winning. It happened, it’s over, there have been much worse, get over it. Wallis being nominated this year is far more comical than Bullock winning could ever be.

    I loved Riva; however, to say she should win because this is possibly her last shot at an Oscar isn’t fair. Who’s to say Lawrence, Chastain, or even Watts will ever be nominated again (though, I’m sure they will). Chastain, I can see her being nominated every year. I’m still hoping for a three-way tie; Riva, Lawrence, and Chastain. :)

  55. I love that the best actress race is always heated. Bening vs Swank x 2, Bening vs Portman, Meryl vs Viola, Meryl vs Sandra, mmmmm, savory! And like I thought last year’s high-tension uberdramatic histrionic contest will be unequaled for years to come, well what do you know, here we go again! My bet JLaw ahead by 8 as I’m typing this. Sleep tight y’all, tomorrow’s the big day!

  56. Jennifer Lawrence delivers a brilliant performance as Tiffany, the saucy, feisty widow whose candor and wit surpass Pat (Bradley Cooper), a troubled, delusional former teacher diagnosed with bipolar disorder. Her words and gestures convey and romantically match the manic-depressive male lead. Her zeal for individuality distinguishes her from typical female leads-Oscar Worthy indeed.

  57. My dream is for Jean Dujardin to open that winner’s envelope, say Happy Birthday and call out Riva’s name!

  58. Greg Schlager

    @Lars really, are you serious? yes, Riva was splendid in Hiroshima mon amour, but what has she done since for the movie industry ? The answer is nothing.. a movie doesn’t define a career. Billions of actresses just sprang out of one movie and came down to oblivion for decades.. I’m French and really, Riva has been has a very foggy name for a long time.. People just re-discovered her in 2013..it means nothing, just like Gloria Stuart fifteen years ago.

  59. VALERIO BRIM

    All these actresses are efficient, but Riva is effulgent.

  60. Okay Greg, what about Three Colors: Blue, Leon, Morin, Priest, and Kapo in addition to Hiroshima, Mon Amour?

  61. ChrisFlick

    I pretty much expect it will go to Lawrence but refuse to let it ruin the evening. Just tell yourself it is a make-up Oscar for Winters Bone and live with it. Expect Mme. Riva will likely just give a stylish shrug and get back on the plane to France, no harm, no foul.

  62. Christina

    The only Best Actress nominee that I haven’t seen is Riva, because in my beautiful country (Chile), Amour will be release next week, but I think that she will win for all the reason that I’ve reading here. But based in the 4 Best Actress Nominees that I saw, my choice will be Chastain, because her role is so complex and she really carries the whole movie because we connected with her constant dedication and commitment to her work and hunting the man. Watts is wonderful in The Impossible, you really can feel all the emotions she is feeling during that awful nightmare called tsunami. Lawrence to me was definitely the best part of Silver Lining Playbook, her role is flawless between drama and comedy. And finally Wallis, I don’t what to say, she is amazing in Beast of the Southern West, I can’t believe that Wallis was 5 year old can deliver all that emotions, and the final scene between her Hushpuppy and her dad, even when I remember still made me sad.
    Sorry for the my long comment, I think this year’s Best Actress Nominees were all flawless and it’s been so much fun watched it.
    So I think Riva will win, Chastain is my first choice, but if Lawrence, Watts or Wallis win I’ll be happy too.

  63. I agree Riva deserves it, truly brilliant but saying “oh she’ll win because she’s old and they wouldn’t have her fly out there if she wasn’t” isn’t really playable. Think of Peter O’Toole, up for his eight nomination with no wins in 2007 and yet he lost. Gloria Sturat in 1998, the same “it’s her one shot” talk and she lost. Imelda Stauton won the BAFTA in 2005 but lost the Oscar. Ruby Dee had the same veteran push in 2008, lost the Oscar. Richard Corliss at “Time” made the observation that some older Academy members are actually turned off by “Amour’s” brutal take on aging.

    It comes down to one major bit: Since the Screen Actor Guild awards were established in 1994, NO ONE has won Best Actress Oscar without being NOMINATED for the SAG. For all the talk on actors loving Riva, I’ve seen a half dozen of those “secret Oscar ballots” where members talk under anonomity and not one of them said they were voting for Riva. Make no mistake, politics play a major role in the Oscars and between a rising Hollywood starlet on her second Best Actress try and a woman with zero Hollywood pesence, who couldn’t even do campaigning, you really think Riva can top that?

    It is possible she can siphon votes from Lawrence to let Chastain win. And yes, she more than deserves the Oscar. I just think this sudden push to make her the front-runner is more to do with Lawrence backlash than her real chances. Remember 2011, Melissa Leo doing those “consider” ads, everyone talked about her ruining her chances, Haliee Stanfield the new front-runner and Leo wins anyway. I ackowledge Riva has a good shot but wouldn’t be at all surprised if Lawrence gets it anyway, which she deserves just as much.

  64. And Greg Schlager makes a good point, even in France, Riva doesn’t quite have the legacy or standing as other actresses, her major heydey was decades ago with not much since. Peter FREAKING O’Toole never got an Oscar in eight nominations and yet Riva with her lack of real presence in Hollywood will just beacuse it’s her birthday?

    Remember how the Academy got so taken with Roberto Begini and now that’s seen as a huge embarassment, not sure they want to go down that path again as a lot of voters are looking to the future and crowning a new starlet is more Oscar appealing (and TV appealing) than an award for an elderly woman 90% of Americans have never heard of.

  65. RB comparison is not appropriate as he gave the least impressive performance among the 5 nominees. Ian Mackellen was absolutely robbed. Nolte and Norton would have been more worthy winners.

    Riva gave the absolutely best performance among the nonimees. That’s the difference maker here.

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