Best Picture Fast Forward — Your Winners for Oscar Night

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From JustJared.

And the Winner for Best Picture 2012 is …. The Bearded Producers

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Ben Affleck and the Charm Offensive

33 Comments

  1. Bob Burns
    February 10, 2013

    Scorsese got his Oscar with Warner, not Harvey.

    This hand is similar to The Departed for the Warner team.

  2. February 10, 2013

    Well, they look happy.

    And anyway, Grant Heslov was in my #10 all-time favorite movie, TRUE LIES. So there’s that.

  3. Sasha Stone
    February 10, 2013

    Doesn’t strike me that way Bob. Scorsese was winning director but he was also nominated for Director and he was way way way overdue. Argo feels to me like the only film people can agree upon in a really strong year of great films. The Departed really had no competition. It probably would not have won otherwise.

  4. Antoinette
    February 10, 2013

    But Warner Bros. did dump their other films to concentrate on ARGO it seems. And they did it early, imo. Maybe they’re a bigger bad than Harvey Weinstein is supposed to be.

  5. Free
    February 10, 2013

    “The Departed really had no competition. It probably would not have won otherwise.”

    - I recall people being very nervous about Little Miss Sunshine near the end of the race. Scorsese’s win was pretty much locked down, but LMS was really well-liked.

  6. February 10, 2013

    But Warner Bros. did dump their other films to concentrate on ARGO it seems. And they did it early, imo.

    Cloud Atlas, The Dark Knight Rises, Magic Mike?

    As much as many of us loved some of those films, even when we loved them a lot we knew right after the lights came up that none of them had any shot at a Best Picture or Best Director nomination.

    If we knew it, I would hope that well-paid executives at Warner Bros who are paid to know these things would have seen the same problems we see for free.

    Then when none of those films got any recognition at year’s end from critics, our instincts were confirmed.

    How much money should WB have plowed in trying to get a BP nomination for Cloud Atlas? We saw a reasonable number of FYC ads for Magic Mike and The Dark Knight Rises — but then what happens when the Academy runs out of empty slots in all the categories in a year rich and deep with contenders from every studio?

    A smart studio knows when to focus its energies.

    What’s mysterious about WeinsteinCo is how they treat their true works of art like runts of the litter — and only the most adorable puppy ever gets the nipple.

  7. Bob Burns
    February 10, 2013

    from the outside of Oscarland (not criticland) looking in, one overdue Marty = George and Ben = one Clint.

    I’ve said it for years and years here. Warner is great when they have the kind of hand they know how to play.

    They got one for Denzel – doesn’t that say anything to you?

    Ben’s narrative is working, but everybody’s got a story. If he wasn’t winning nobody much would give a shit about his. Which came first… the wins or the narrative? Neither, IMO. The story became THE story because somebody worked it.

  8. Brad
    February 10, 2013

    The normal thinking is that it would be an aberration f the Best Picture winner didn’t have a Directors nomination.

    Well, this year it seems like the Academy’s Directors Branch is the aberration. They do look a little silly now leaving out Affleck.

  9. nixon
    February 10, 2013

    If argo wins editing on oscars night..it will take best pic

  10. AnthonyP
    February 10, 2013

    Argo is winning BP no matter what happens, nixon.
    I don’t think an editing award is going to stop the Argo train.

  11. filmboymichael
    February 10, 2013

    @nixon, that’s not as good a bellwether as it once was, however, the editing for Argo is really strong and worth of the award.

  12. Zach
    February 10, 2013

    The BAFTAs were so boring! Like Suraj Charms and Sally Field’s son the whole night, I was frustrated and upset I wasn’t watching the Grammys. Every winner was predictable and undeserved except for the one shock in screenplay which was even more undeserving. The irony that the host is so verbose and smug but Lincoln’s script is still too talky for them. Is this the year for two acting winners who weren’t nominated for SAGs?

  13. February 10, 2013

    Which came first… the wins or the narrative? Neither, IMO. The story became THE story because somebody worked it.

    I agree with Bob.

    I would agree with you Ryan, if Warner Bros was on welfare and couldn’t afford to campaign for all their films. But as I’ve said before they could have, along with TWC, dominated the entire season. But they chose which one would be singled out. It didn’t happen organically. So many artists involved in their films didn’t get any recognition because they chose before they needed to. This is why you see people like Christoph Waltz winning awards when many of us thought he was the 3rd best supporting actor in DJANGO UNCHAINED. It may seem like some kind of safe move but then a lot of people go home with nothing. You don’t get amazing films or amazing awards show moments by playing it safe. If that’s what’s happening, then no one should be surprised when the Oscars seem like a boring afterthought to the general public. “Oh, ARGO won? I knew it would back in October.” How exciting!

  14. filmboymichael
    February 10, 2013

    @zach – you didn’t miss anything special on a rather boring grammy telecast.

  15. February 10, 2013

    This is why you see people like Christoph Waltz winning awards when many of us thought he was the 3rd best supporting actor in DJANGO UNCHAINED

    Nobody was going door to door in Bel Air holding a gun to voters’ heads threatening them if they dared mark DiCaprio on their ballot.

  16. February 10, 2013

    “if Warner Bros was on welfare and couldn’t afford to campaign for all their films…”

    But if money and advertising were all it took to make people mark ballots as desired, then the Koch Brothers’ and Sheldon Adelson’s bottomless pockets would have assured Mitt Romney’s election as President.

  17. February 10, 2013

    Nobody was going door to door in Bel Air holding a gun to voters’ heads threatening them if they dared mark DiCaprio on their ballot.

    No one said they were. You guys are the ones talking about dirty campaigns all the time. I’m saying there was no campaign for those people. I’m not talking about campaigns against. By default Waltz was nominated because they were guessing. DJANGO UNCHAINED was late to the party. It needed the help. The idea that it was a violent film seemed to make it not award friendly. Then it was a hit, but too late. SLP was already the TWC choice. I’m saying they didn’t have to choose.

    Neither did Warner Bros. They could have just sat there and waited. But ARGO was pushing from the beginning. By the time THE HOBBIT was released it was like they didn’t want anyone to know. They let TDKR be swallowed up by controversy. We’re not talking about just no BP nod. TDKR got nothing. Nothing. Hans Zimmer lost the Grammy, but he was nominated at least. Not by AMPAS though. According to them there wasn’t a single thing about that film worthy of recognition.

    You’re saying they went with the safe films. I’m saying they decided what was safe. We’ve been through this before. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you insist that people will only choose the milquetoast option so much so that you only offer them milquetoast then that’s all they can choose.

  18. d.p
    February 10, 2013

    @Brad, agree. The only aberration this year is the director’s branch of the academy (but hey- they snubbed bigelow and tarantino too…so who knows what went on with the voting). all of the awards have lined up. even prior to the Ben snub, it seems like halfway through the critics award season, Argo started getting momentum (after ZD30 got knee capped). Even without the snub, the Globes and Critics Choice (which were NOT influenced by the oscar nominations) gave Argo so much momentum that I’m not sure Lincoln would have been able to overcome it (how many critics awards did Lincoln win for best pic?). In some way, an award for DDL is an award for the film. the performance was so touted that giving the film any additional awards would seem redundant. And no one seems to love the movie well enough to want to give it more awards (director, best pic). so throw any comparisons to Miss Daisy on this year’s Oscar. The director’s branch is clearly in the backseat with Argo and their supporters behind the wheel.

  19. JJ
    February 10, 2013

    Thank God for Side Effects, the first film to yank me of out of awards season doldrums. That movie is crazy in the best way. Here’s hoping 2013 brings more twisted surprises like it.

  20. February 10, 2013

    “Well, this year it seems like the

    Academy’s Directors Branch is

    the aberration. They do look a

    little silly now leaving out

    Affleck.”

    Brad, brilliant words.
    The naked truth.

  21. ChrisD
    February 10, 2013

    Zach – have you seen Amour? Emmanuelle Riva undeserved?!!! She is the most deserving of all the nominees in every catergory this season.

  22. Linc4Jess
    February 10, 2013

    “But if money and advertising were all it took to make people mark ballots as desired, then the Koch Brothers’ and Sheldon Adelson’s bottomless pockets would have assured Mitt Romney’s election as President.”

    Well, At least Romney got his money from Americans and thanks for shedding light on the Obama win. Now I know. It was all those bottomless pockets of those foreign fraudulent donors to the Obama campaign.

  23. Tero Heikkinen
    February 11, 2013

    Zach, you renamed him as Suraj Charms. I like that, because it’s true.

  24. The J Viewer
    February 11, 2013

    In the wake of BAFTA, Emmanuelle Riva is now the one to watch. (Note: I’ve, however, made a last-min blunder ending up picking Lawrence for the BAFTA Leading Actress win despite – not really – silently having faithfully supported Madame for weeks before.) In my opinion, Oscar Best Actress is now a showdown between Madame and Ms. Lawrence.

    Speaking for myself, despite the BP win garnered by Argo at BAFTA event, I still see Lincoln as BP front runner – unfortunately, (from now on) the one that could be beaten in light of what happened at BAFTA. (I am not saying Lincoln was loved by BAFTA-so-that-it-looked-like-a-snub-there-or-anything; I am just a latecomer who’s now begun really to feel the Argo heat despite basking in it from day one like many.)

    Just saying.

  25. Zach
    February 11, 2013

    *Suraj Sharma, silly autocorrect. But yes, he is charming as both Pi and himself. He was ripped off, and his FACE last night when Ang Lee (or the not-nominated Spielberg) lost to Ben Fucking Affleck encapsulated my frustration with this awards season: Really?

    @ChrisD, I have seen Amour, and Riva wouldn’t be my winner over Naomi Watts or even Marion Cotillard, whose clip gave everyone a glimpse of how ripped off she was. But yes, I predicted she would win last night, and I’m glad she did so. Not every winner was undeserved last night. There are just so few categories where there is an undeniable winner who is actually winning everything — and even so, I’d liked to have seen DDL and Hathaway spread the wealth with Jackman and Field.

    May I randomly add that Emmanuelle Riva didn’t do herself any favors by not showing up last night. Is she even going to attend the Oscars? The BAFTAs were Marion Cotillard’s turning point because she won but also because she showed up. I don’t know if Riva can win now. Amour didn’t do THAT well last night like some of us thought it would. I don’t think Amour is winning any more than Foreign Film and MAYBE Riva. They’re not so desperate that it will take Screenplay or Director.

    Speaking of original screenplay, the politics this year are so ugly and more frustrating than ever. I LOVE Inglourious Basterds, and I thought it was ridiculous and unfair for that film’s screenplay to lose to The Hurt Locker EVEN IF that was the movie du jour. But they were incomparable. Now, however, because Zero Dark Thirty is the real Color Purple shunned-nominee this year, and perhaps because they don’t want to give Mark Boal his second Oscar win before Tarantino, Django is the default winner. (Zero Dark Thirty will go zero for five unless it wins Sound Editing.)

    But Django, while filled with rich dialogue, was messy! I can’t believe that they would give an Oscar to that script! Amour doesn’t deserve a writing Oscar, and perhaps ZDT doesn’t either, even if it weren’t saddled with controversy. Of course, Moonrise Kingdom isn’t even up for BP, so that’s not happening. But you just know that if David Fincher’s people, or any lesser, less famous writer-director, wrote the Django script, it would NOT be winning. It would NOT be able to overcome its polarizing treatment of blacks. The Academy was say, no, thank you, we’re looking for higher art.

    If Tarantino can add another Oscar to his resume, I’ll be glad for him, but it’s ridiculous that it will be for the inferior black remake of Inglourious rather than for Inglourious itself.

    Then you have Lincoln losing Adapted Screenplay to God knows what. Oh, Tarantino writes rich dialogue, but what is Lincoln? Flat and boring? SLP is okay on dialogue, but it would also be the most contrived screenplay to ever win. You can see all the plot devices for what they are because Russell doesn’t even try to cloak them and the acting is so obvious (except admittedly one thing with Weaver at the end, which I won’t spoil, but if you saw it, you know what I’m talking about). But even the BAFTAs felt that SLP had to win something, so if Oscar agrees, it may be Russell – who’s the one crying on TV about his son – rather than Lawrence/De Niro.

    And that might be my biggest gripe with the BAFTAs. They didn’t even nominate SLP or Django. We know they love Tarantino, and he was up for Director. But what kind of awards ceremonies gives not one but BOTH its Screenplay awards to movies that aren’t even up for Best Picture???? If you hated Lincoln so much, and you hated ZDT, and you thought Pi was nothing more than techs, and you preferred Skyfall to Les Mis, then why were all those films up for Best Picture?? Even Argo continued its Affleck-Clooney-but-no-other-televised-award streak!

    The BAFTAs this year played the same follow-the-leader game that the rest of the guilds have played, with the possible exception of Riva. ZDT going home empty-handed and even the shock of SLP winning Screenplay when you didn’t even nominate it just smack of the old “we’ll give them what they want” routine. Very disheartening.

    @filmboymichael, I recorded the Grammys, so bits will be watched today. I definitely flipped over to it last night for a minute and saw Adele grooving behind Keith Urban and Nicole Kidman and realized this was where all the cool people were.

    P.S. why was Helen Mirren’s hair pink? And somebody tell me why Juno Temple is considered a newcomer? That award is so stupid, it should be retired.

  26. Zach
    February 11, 2013

    1 more point:

    Riva IS a tantalizing choice, since the presumed frontrunner, Lawrence, is playing a whorish plot device and is a poor man’s poor man’s Helen Hunt in the film. It’s literally the performance vs. the politics. Riva isn’t campaigning, so it’s all up to her performance, which is frankly too restrained for your typical Oscar win. Meanwhile, Lawrence’s performance isn’t all that, so if she wins, it’s because the politics, her personality, and her campaign overcome Amour.

    I question if Riva can truly win without Globe or SAG nominations. Dujardin won both. Cotillard won the Globe. Even Benigni won the SAG despite no Globe nod, plus he was in a Holocaust film. Is Riva just wishful thinking?

  27. Chronos
    February 11, 2013

    I feel that 2007 should have been the year of United 93, not The Departed.

  28. Tero Heikkinen
    February 11, 2013

    Riva will attend Oscars and then she’s gonna rest from all this hullabaloo. She said that in a recent interview. She and Haneke (I suppose) couldn’t do BAFTA because of Césars.

  29. Rebel
    February 11, 2013

    Even if Riva stated she’s not attending, I’d say she will still win the Oscar. If she can get the most votes from the entire BAFTA membership, then the Oscar is hers to lose. This will make history and people will always look back and compare to the year where Riva won the Oscar without the Globes and SAG support.

    The gif of Russell making the face at Riva’s BAFTA win is everywhere, lol.

  30. Zach
    February 11, 2013

    But she was more likely to win BAFTA than Oscar anyway. They didn’t even nominate SLP. The bigger surprise was that Russell won.

  31. Nic V
    February 11, 2013

    I would also expect Riva to attend the Oscars. I said all along that Riva would end up being the one who would hold the cards at the end and I think at this point she’s got a full house. She’s the oldest nominee and in a performance that has been heralded by not only those handing out awards but by those who critically held up the work as the best female performance of the year. I won’t be surprised if she looses but only because this year is so all over the place that’s it really hard to determine if what’s winning at the moment is truly the best or the result of deliberate strategies. BAFTA has always acknowledged performances in foreign language films so Riva winning at BAFTA wasn’t really a stretch. Lawrence or Chastain were more of a stretch at BAFTA than Riva. It will be a grand moment in Oscar history to watch someone help or escort Riva up to the stage that night to receive her Oscar. Bet she’s gets a standing ovation.

    Even looking at the BAFTA results there still is no general consensus. There wasn’t a single film that came out of BAFTA holding a slew of awards. Les Mis wasn’t that difficult to predict either because it’s basically an English film. I really thought the big winner at BAFTA was going to be Life of Pi. But it seems that Life of Pi is running the same course that Tree of Life ran last year.

    I don’t know that anything is locked in yet. Maybe that’s wishful thinking but after the cooling down of “lets make Ben feel better” AMPAS might start drifting a bit and what we see come Oscar night might be a little different than what we expect right now.

    I don’t think anyone expected Lincoln would really resonate with BAFTA. It’s really not a BAFTA film. Argo makes sense to me only because it kind of resembles the small English films that were made in the fifties and to some degree in the sixties. Those small little films that didn’t try to be anything more than what they were. That’s the one thing about Argo that works in it’s favor. It’s a small film that doesn’t try to pretend to be the Guns of Navarone. But Oscar even though it loves the cash from the Guns of Navarone type of film they usually like a little more substance.

  32. Pierre de Plume
    February 11, 2013

    A few observations:

    1) I liked Argo – especially the first part where we get a background/history lesson that sets the stage for the embassy takeover, essentially that the shah’s regime was oppressive and that the USA helped put him in power and keep him there. But once that’s over, suddenly we’re seeing the mission to retrieve embassy employees as a heroic effort (which it was), but, to me, there’s a disconnect going on here: The set-up showed the USA in a bad light but then all of a sudden we’re heroes again. Now that’s ironic.

    2) I hope Riva wins, and she has a good chance. One of the differences, though, is that Cotillard came to the USA a few weeks before the awards so she could campaign (something Julie Christie didn’t do). The next strike against Riva’s chances is the “old broad” rule, which dictates that two older actresses can’t win back to back. Just look at the history of the Oscars. . . . Since Streep won last year, history tells us that Riva won’t win this year. I know it’s sexist, but it seems to be true. That said, I don’t see how Oscars voters can resist awarding Riva.

    3) Regarding the nomination of Christophe Waltz over others in the Django cast, I think one of the reasons, in addition to his excellent performance, involves the nature of the character he plays, which is an Oscary, role-model type (i.e., on the right side of race politics).

  33. OCO300
    February 18, 2013

    How is it that Skyfall won for Outstanding British Film at the British Academy Film Awards, but got snubbed out of thre Best Picture nominees of the Academy Awards?

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