Clumsy, Outdated Narrative Keeps Presenting Lincoln as Frontrunner

Even now, as Argo has won every major award heading into the race, when not a single other director in a wide open year, has pulled in a win, when, for the first time ever our contender tracker has NO wins next to the directors name, the Business Insider’s Kirsten Acuna, and many others, continue to push this false narrative, that Argo is the “longshot” and Silver Linings the “Cinderella” and Lincoln the “most conservative, safe bet win for the Academy.”  They predict Lincoln to win proving that they haven’t read a single article during the Oscar race. But you know, this is what drives the underdog and beats down the presumed frontrunner which, by the way, hasn’t won a single major award since the season began. What it has won? The American public.

I guess the muggles won’t rest until Lincoln suffers its final fate next Sunday.  And then the glorious headlines that the little movie that could (Argo v. Silver Linings) triumphs over mean ol’ Spielberg.  Oof.

Meanwhile, over 50 psychics in Hollywood are surveyed and they say Lincoln will win:

In a survey of 50 Hollywood Psychics professionals, more predicted an Oscar win for Lincoln than for any other film, with most of the remaining forecasts split almost evenly between Argo and Les Misérables.

In other major categories the planets and stats seem almost perfectly aligned. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) gets a 99% certainty nod to win Best Actor from the Huffington Post and a clear majority from the psychics, as well. For best director, the HuffPo is 88.4% certain that Steven Spielberg will add a 3rd Best Director statuette to his stash. The psychics couldn’t agree more.

In the Best Actress category, Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) gets a 73% will-win verdict from the Huffington Post, and a similar psychic vote of confidence.

It’s hard to argue with so much accord, but one psychic bucks the trend. Spiritual Advisor and Tarot Card reader Vandine picks Beasts of the Southern Wild as the wild card that might “possibly sweep” the awards. “The cards were inconclusive,” she says, “Leaning slightly towards Beasts in several categories. This is going to be tight.”

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21 Comments

  1. February 19, 2013

    There is one even more glorious possibility.

    And that is if the seemingly clueless Ms. Acuna somehow has latched onto a realistic scenario. Ha!

  2. Film Fatale
    February 19, 2013

    Sasha, you have found more ways to write about your favorite this year than any favorite in any other year — this article gave me big laughs, actually, imagining you banging out it in the 11th hour of voting. I’m actually hoping, just for you, that Lincoln pulls it off…

    Gotta say i have LOVED your passiif you ever want to marry a gay man (other than Ryan) please give me a call.

  3. Film Fatale
    February 19, 2013

    Iphone got me. What i meant to say was…

    Gotta say i have LOVED your passion this year, and if you ever want to marry a gay man (other than Ryan) please give me a call.

  4. Screenguy61
    February 19, 2013

    Unless the psychic is Samantha Morton in “Minority Report”, I’m not listening.

  5. February 19, 2013

    The psychics had better be right, or their livelihoods will be in jeopardy!

  6. Zach
    February 19, 2013

    Time to start up a psychic business on the side and trump my Oscar predictions success rate, because it’s sure to be better than that of anyone who’s still predicting Les Mis to win Picture!

  7. steve50
    February 19, 2013

    Well, we’ve had TV doctors, politicians, CIA agents, historians, spiritual leaders and the Iranian government get in on the act, why not psychics? or psychos, for that matter?

    Any other crackers want a shot? Zookeepers, sailors and heavyduty Glad Bag producers – you only have a couple of days left. Get’em while their hot.

  8. Vince S.
    February 19, 2013

    Any film without a director’s nod defies precedent as you’ve mentioned before Sasha.

    Making it a longshot among longshots.

  9. Jerry Grant
    February 19, 2013

    We can only hope the psychics are right

  10. MonchoVader
    February 19, 2013

    Sasha, with all that has been losing credibility, By God, forgets to Lincoln. If at the end wins, good, but stop showing your bigotry.

  11. The Dude
    February 19, 2013

    If the psychics are predicting it, then I suppose Lincoln won’t win anything…

  12. February 19, 2013

    Not that I want to add fuel to the fire in my personal belief that Lincoln could still win, but does anyone remember 1974? Being fifty three I do. The Godfather Part II was not even considered a threat going into the Oscars despite winning the DGA — the film was given no chance of winning over Chinatown and the feeling was the DGA Award was a make up for Coppola won won the DGA for THe Godfather but lost the Oscar to Bob Fosse — the big night rolls around and The Godfather Part II wins 6 including Best Film and Best Director — sometimes the Academy goes their own way and gets it right in the process — I believe they will do this for Lincoln because it was the years best film anad they will honor it as such — plus a win for Argo further draws attention to the fact they blew it in not nominating Affleck — have faith Sasha, I believe in Lincoln for Best Picture…hang tough.

  13. Paul Voorhies
    February 19, 2013

    For more clumsy, dated narratives, check out picks 2-5 of your Actress picks!

  14. Yvette
    February 19, 2013

    One of the most annoying angles this season is the notion that Lincoln is ‘safe’. Well, Argo turned out to be the ‘safe’ bet. Lincoln, IMO, has always been an underdog this year – because of the industry’s ambiguous and fickly attitude toward Spielberg, because the film treats it’s subject seriously and solemnly and respectfully (a sin in new Hollywood apparently) and because it’s percieved as being BIG.
    There is nothing underdog about anything connected to Clooney/Affleck, nothing. That’s just false perception and brilliant media savvy.
    I’d love to see the look on the faces of Cloony/Affleck and their yachtclubhouse of entitlement.

  15. Yvette
    February 19, 2013

    I’d love to see the look on the faces of Cloony/Affleck and their yachtclubhouse of entitlement….when they get shut out.
    I know, it isn’t likely, but it would be a wonderful capture.

  16. February 19, 2013

    Nobody that I remember thought “Godfather Part II” had a chance. Just the fact that it was a sequel seemed to rule it out. Then came Oscar night . . . This is a very interesting year. Maybe “Argo” has it in the bag, but I don’t really think so.

  17. Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE
    February 19, 2013

    So this is just shocking Kushner overlooked for a screenplay that was tenfold at least more accomplished, smarter and far and away innovative to the shit that the supposed most undeserved inevitable Oscar winner in Argo which is to answer u earlier question sasha already determined Argo will b a also ran a fuked up wasted opportunity to embrace the best of the best that film is Lincoln not Argo. What a truckload of shithouse waste . Oscar season denegrates itself to. They should start calling themselves the mediocre arts and motion picture sciences. This year marks a all time lowest ebb for Oscar and the guilds. They are arrogant, selfish and ruthless. Stop at nothing to get their way at the expense of us the little pple who oncce were considered as to who should win best picture. Now Oscar cast us aside. U watch in yrs to come the only thing memorable bout this year is Oscarw elitism on the rise and it public support base in rapid decline. Everyone will tlk of Lincoln in yrs to come and that includes the discredited some not on this site who arrogantly press awards season agenda. There something rotten in Hollywood awards. And that is the rise and rise of mediocruty at the expense of the true deserving rightful best film of the year.

  18. Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE
    February 19, 2013

    Kushner overlooked for a screenplay that was tenfold at least more accomplished, smarter and far and away innovative to the shit that the supposed most undeserved inevitable Oscar winner in Argo which is to answer u earlier question sasha already determined Argo will b a also ran a fuked up wasted opportunity to embrace the best of the best that film is Lincoln not Argo. What a truckload of shithouse waste . Oscar season denegrates itself to. They should start calling themselves the mediocre arts and motion picture sciences. This year marks a all time lowest ebb for Oscar and the guilds. They are arrogant, selfish and ruthless. Stop at nothing to get their way at the expense of us the little pple who oncce were considered as to who should win best picture. Now Oscar cast us aside. U watch in yrs to come the only thing memorable bout this year is Oscarw elitism on the rise and it public support base in rapid decline. Everyone will tlk of Lincoln in yrs to come and that includes the discredited some not on this site who arrogantly press awards season agenda. There something rotten in Hollywood awards. And that is the rise and rise of mediocruty at the expense of the true deserving rightful best film of the year.

  19. Pierre de Plume
    February 19, 2013

    I miss the Reel Geezers.

  20. February 20, 2013

    I am ashamed to consider myself a member of the same species as these guys.

  21. March 27, 2014

    Well, I guess this shows us who the real psychics are.

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