According to Oscar/DGA history, no director has ever won the DGA, lost an Oscar nomination for directing, then won Best Picture.  It’s not happened ever, going back to 1949. So if this is a crazy year, as everyone keeps saying, you will see something happen that has never happened.   On the other hand, it’s possible that (I don’t know for sure) the DGA has never announced after Oscar ballots were turned in before. There is no precedent I know of for that either.  Only once in DGA/Oscar history did only two directors from the DGA’s list get Oscar nominations and of course, the one who won the DGA also won the Directing Oscar and Best Picture, Robert Wise and The Sound of Music.

The theory: Argo is just good enough to pull it off.

But if you stick to the rational in what is an irrational situation,  the two most likely to win tonight would have to be Ang Lee for Life of Pi or Steven Spielberg for Lincoln, as these are the only two who have also been nominated for the Oscar.  But twice two directors have won the DGA without an Oscar nomination, Ron Howard and Steven Spielberg, neither of their films won Best Picture.

At any rate, my No Guts, No Glory for once happens to be my actual prediction: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Most everyone else believes this will be Ben Affleck’s Big Mo. And that’s entirely possible. Hey, don’t listen to me.  As Bob Dylan would say, “when you ain’t got nothing you got nothing to lose.”