Ben Affleck has just become the third director in DGA/Academy history to win the DGA without a corresponding Oscar nomination.
Best Feature: Ben Affleck, Argo
Best Documentary Feature: Malik Bendjelloul, Searching for Sugarman
Televison Directors award winners, after the cut.
Best TV Miniseries: Jay Roach, Game Change
Best Drama Series: Rian Johnson, Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series: Lena Dunham, Girls
Best Reality Series: Brian Smith, Master Chef
@Pierre – I agree. Adapted screenplay category is going to tell us the true nature of the race. Adapted screenplay win for Argo is a must for BP chance.
ARGO/Spielberg combination is highly unlikely. If Spielberg wins Lincoln would win. If ARGO wins then it would be Haneke.
Argo is a well crafted film but it would be the weakest BP winner since Crash.
“WTF!?!??!!?!?!? I just read here about Affleck victory at the DGA. I was skeptical about “Argo” at the Oscar, even with all the love from other precursors. Now, no doubt about it:. it will BP at the Academy Awards”
JM,
I told you, fella. 🙂
Amen, Film Fatale. Drama, comedy, romance, singing, she’s done it all with emotions and accents a-plenty. (Nice little bit as a rabbi in “Angels in America,” too.)
There’s a clip on Youtube by Mo Rocco called “Streeple,” populated entirely by Streep characters (through the end of 2009). It’s terrific.
All this means for me is an exciting Oscar night. However, if Spielberg and Kushner win, along with DDL, then it’s a sweep for Lincoln.
Mohammed,
You are ether high, on meds or need to go back and do your homework — Streep “isn’t on the same level” as Day-Lewis and her talent is not “overwhelming” eh? Flat out most inaccurate and misguided comment I have ever read on Awards Daily–and that is saying something.
You must be very young so I would suggest you start by watching Sophie’s Choice followed by her truck scene in The Brodges of Madison County and EVERY OTHER THING SHE HAS EVER DONE — frankly, Day-Lewis needs to catch up to her in the department of producing emotion to complement his technical precision.
Streep is an immortal actress and there’s a reason why actors all over the world have revered her as the queen for 35 years.
Sorry, game over.
Let’s face it: Argo is a very good movie, but not a great one. The bottom line (pun intended): Argo makes heroes of Hollywood moviemakers — even fake ones — and Hollywood loves nothing more than kissing it’s own ass.
All this hubbub over Argo cause 370 members of the Academy’s directors branch told Affleck, in effect, stick to acting, you’re not good enough to be one of us. I’d be royally embarrassed if I were one of those 370…
The most likely scenerios for Picture/Director that I see happening are: ARGO/Spielberg, LINCOLN/Spielberg, ARGO/Haneke (my personal choice for Best Director).
Even if ARGO does hang on to win Best Picture, it will be difficult for the Academy not to acknowledge Spielberg’s achievement with LINCOLN – which is impressive on a number of fronts, and one of his best.
And Spielberg is a great director IMO. (My wife and I have debated this a few times.) Yes, his sentimentality and playing to the audience work against him (like Chaplin), but look at his track record. Who else since Hitchcock has burrowed into the popular subconscious like this? Sure, there are other directors I prefer (Kubrick, Scorsese, etc.), but Spielberg is likeable, immensely talented and knowledgable. I am always fascinating to hear him talk about film technique and history. If you don’t like Spielberg’s style, its really more of a comement about your personality – same as people who don’t care for Ford or Chaplin.
Classic movies can be great art or great entertainment – or sometimes a combination of the two. There is no shame in great entertainment (though I believe Best Pictures should be ambitious and a shining example of what film can be). Spielberg has enough films in his canon to prove himself a worthy artist. Where the backlash largely comes from is a resentment for his power and success with a mass audience, which is too bad. LINCOLN is not my choice for Best Picture (I prefer AMOUR or LIFE OF PI), but it would be an excellent pick. It will be interesting to see what happens…
Here are two more:
John Sheardown
Here’s a couple of words for all the Affleck crockumentary lovers:
Ken Taylor.
Well, we can’t say that this was a surprise. But wow! The BD race at the Oscars this year is definitely now the most exciting category (of course, other than Best Picture). Now it’s on to WGA. Will they, too, fall for Argo? If so… this awards season is officially a shame. That would be the time to SERIOUSLY consider every award from PGA to WGA as a sympathy prize. No way in hell does a film like Argo deserve to sweep the guilds. Kushner D-E-S-E-R-V-E-S a win for adapted screenplay. If WGA and AMPAS chooses Terrio over Kushner for the sake of “following the crowd” or trying to justify Argo as the Best Picture… oh no… that would be a sham. But if Argo does end up winning it all… one can only say congratulations. I’m still rooting for Life of Pi and Lincoln to the very end! BAFTA… please revive the awards season!
People can hate on Argo all they want, but i remember all the buzz when the movie first did festival circuits – there was talk about how it could be best picture there. Argo got standing ovations – yada, yada, yada. Then it actually starts to win awards, and people claim that they are pity awards. It’s sad, i just think that its that good of a movie.
“…usually only two or three films that are “BP material” but this year there are far more.”
That is exactly why I count nobody out at this point, rufus. Ballots arrive with the voters in 5 days, then they have about 10 days to submit them. That is an incredibly long time in a high profile campaign like this, loaded with guild awards. Good publicity, bad publicity, it won cinematography at ASC, can’t believe it didn’t take the Scripters. All this adds up.
Argo may well be the ideal BP choice (I called it the French Connection back in the fall), but it will be tough without a director nomination, let alone a win.
The likely will be a split this year, but between whom? Only Disney or Weinstein can prevent that, but are either capable? Disney has the right product and TWC has the right team, but each is weak in the opposite camp.
WTF!?!??!!?!?!? I just read here about Affleck victory at the DGA. I was skeptical about “Argo” at the Oscar, even with all the love from other precursors. Now, no doubt about it:. it will BP at the Academy Awards
Yeah, my mom just made a great point when I told her last night’s winners: “How can they sit there and fill out their ballots and pick Argo for Best Picture when they see it’s not getting anything else?”
And so she’s picking Arkin to win Supporting. (I’m laughing as I type this. She has not seen Argo.)
Well, stranger things have happened.
If Argo wins only Picture and Editing, and even a Sound award, it does make you wonder whether Lincoln will take all the other top awards. They could sit down and say, “Well, I would have voted for Affleck had he been nominated, but I’m left with no choice other than to pick Spielberg or Lee. I know Lincoln has the better script and great performances, and I think Pi should get everything technical. But Argo is still my favorite film of the year, and had Ben been nominated, I would have at least given it Picture, Editing, and Director too.”
Argo has swept the precursors, though. That suggests that it didn’t just win PGA because of the idiosyncrasies of the preferential ballot, but that Argo legitimately leading the votes, if not winning over a majority of voters, in every guild.
And with that in mind, it would be odd for there to be such a mismatch between the Academy and all of the guilds for Argo not to win Picture.
Still, two SAG Ensemble wins make me shake my head in disbelief: Argo and Apollo 13 (three if you include The Birdcage, but great cast). What does that say?
KT — you make several good points about David O. Russell’s position in this race. I’m sure many people are working under the assumption that, because Affleck is “out of the way” in the director category, that means Spielberg is the most likely recipient. But Russell’s fingerprints are all over his film because of his integral role in the writing and also his current (and past) successes with actors, critics and public reception. Plus – notably – you raise the Harvey factor. I’m still not convinced, but your “beware” is well taken.
Given how fucked up this year is, why wouldn’t Picture and Screenplay split? . . . so I don’t see why Argo would be different–unless the voters are feeling like they have to justify its Best Picture win with a win in one substantial category.
Zach — Therein lies the answer: Can Argo take best picture winning 1, or maybe 2, major awards? It’s best chance lies in the editing category, but is that enough to justify best picture? I doubt it. Seems to me there will have to be a bandwagon effect in the adapted screenplay category to make it a viable choice for top prize. To me, that’s the question of the moment, and only the can provide the all-important clue at this point.
This year we had many good movies, some nominated, some not nominated. Good for us, no doubt. The thing is: we’re talking best, not good nor even very good. There was a time when earning a nomination was considered as a huge achievement since it meant the movie had struck a chord and distinguished itself. The best motion picture-to be movie is something different: it should be MEMORABLE, since it’d go down in history. Irrespective of whether it’s the movie people personally loved/enjoyed, etc most.
I’m happy that you’re so comforted Ethan that Affleck will not get an Oscar for what you foolishly refer to Argo as ‘made for tv’. He won the DGA, so it’s all good son.
You’re pathetic.
Is Ryan Adams the moderator here? If so he should grow up. Get over it. “The trick is not minding” Say that to yourself 50 times a day dude.
I agree with: “The Academy made itself look awful this year. No matter what happens; ARGO cleaning up will have done serious damage to any other film.
Come Oscar night if another film wins it’s because the Academy wanted to give a consolation prize. It’s like awarding the runner up because the real winner was caught in a traffic jam”.
Stop with your bogus “Argo winning awards is a pity vote” crap. All these nominations came out BEFORE the Oscars snub was announced. At lease two awards were given before the Oscars were announced. You would “think” the DGA would want to keep its predictor of the Oscar award status going: they felt strongly enough to let it go.
@daveinprogress – that is the first thing that popped in my head when I read that quote: “did he just borrow a quote from….CHER?!”
love it.
Yay! Argo, and I’m so happy for searching for sugarman!
I think it’s funny that a supporter of Lincoln is claiming that Argo is without substance or character development. As a person who likes substance and character development, I think Argo has both in spades over Lincoln. What Lincoln has is a top-notch subject, great technical aspects and some great performances and sparkling dialogue. But there’s really no character development at all. Anytime the script comes close to there being some character develpment, Spielberg quickly changes focus in favor of some other aspect. As for substance, there’s nothing here that can’t be gotten from a history book. Other than the ability to see what interior lighting for the rich was like in 1860’s, there’s not much to the film that can be gotten elsewhere.
Argo, on the other hand, has a great central character in Tony Mendez. We see his life in full, how he loves his job, and the toll it takes on him. It’s a far more interesting portrayal of a person than Lincoln. As for substance, Argo does a nice job of dissecting the disastrous side effects of our imperialistic foreign policy. And it shows how those negative side effects ironically provide us Americans to cheer heroism and feel patriotic, all the while not caring about how our actions affect those in other countries. I find this to be a highly substantive film, and it does it in such a subtle way, most people have no clue what they are watching, proving Affleck’s and Terrio’s points along the way.
The more I think about Argo, the more brilliant I think it is. Even the close calls I hated at first are starting to make sense thematically. You can almost hear Affleck thinking “Let’s Hollywood it up!” The government “Hollywood’s it up” for us all time to make it palatable for the American population (just look at the Bush Administration and the run up and immediate aftermath of the Iraq invasion for an example.)
Argo is a film of substance and character development and a very worthy film to win Best Picture.
Affleck never had a “poor me” attitude, it was in fact his peers, that thought he was robbed. He has made 3 solid movies in a row, Argo is a damn good movie – and yes, some might say they think it is better than Lincoln. But best picture is a matter of opinion, and this year has been an amazing year for movies. Not just 1 or 2, but every single movie nominated i have watched and enjoyed and would be okay with winning best picture.Ben Affleck has come a long way from being the proprietor of the fashionable male, im thrilled that he won.
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE ROUND OF APPLAUSE to the (oh let’s say a median of) early 40 somethings on this site who are so quick to put down someone who is 26 and has a show on one of the biggest cable networks on the planet. ANNNNND also writes, directs and stars in it.
Ummm boybands never wrote their own songs let alone had any input…. wakey wakey PAULH
Whether GIRLS is anyones thing or not, I think Lena Dunham has clearly showcased that be it in writing , acting or directing (or all three) she will play a rold in the next generation of entertainment.
Argo’s a good movie, but right now it’s officially the most over-awarded movie of the year.
Ben Affleck can win as many precursor directing awards as he wants with this made-for-tv movie, but he will never get the coveted directing Oscar for it. And that, my friend, is a comforting thought 🙂
The Color Purple >>>>> Apollo 13 > Braveheart >> Argo >>> SLP >> Out of Africa
I’ve said this before on Awards Daily: BEWARE David O. Russell for Best Director. ARGO is the Best Picture winner, done deal…as it was after the preferential-ballot PGA Awards. Best Director remains one of the closest races, WITHOUT A CLEAR FRONTRUNNER!!
This is a weird year, when only 2 DGA nominees went on to be nominated for the Directing Oscar. DO NOT necessarily think this directing race is just between those two DGA nominees Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg. It’s NOT!! They were not the two directors who swept the critics and Globes (Bigelow and Affleck)…this prize is up for the grabbing, and I have a sneaking suspicion that person will be David O. Russell:
• He has huge respect from actors, having directed 7 acting nominees in his last two films. He WILL earn the Acting Branch majority vote with Affleck out of the picture.
• He has been directing films for over a decade, with some standout work. Arguably some of that work may exceed Silver Linings–but when does a director EVER win for his or her BEST WORK?? Silver Linings is not arguably a WELL-DIRECTED MOVIE. It is undeniable that Russell is a very good director, and this could be the chance to honor him.
• He has the narrative that he wrote and directed this particular film for his son. This narrative has been everywhere: Jennifer Lawrence repeated it when she won the SAG. The Weinstein Co publicity knows this will get him votes in a close race.
• He has NEVER WON an Oscar before, unlike Lee and Spielberg. Does Spielberg get a third over Russell?? I have trouble seeing this, since I know how stingy the Academy is. Haneke is already getting foreign film and original screenplay (very likely). Zeitlin is just happy to be there. That leaves Russell and his film—WHERE CAN VOTERS AWARD SILVER LININGS??? Lincoln is winning Best Actor. I’m still not convinced Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Actress or De Niro can win Supporting Actor after 20 years of subpar, disappointing work…BUT Best Director is SURELY a place where this film, and a notable director working today, can win votes and get its due.
• AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST, may I remind you who is behind Silver Linings. Yup, Mr. Harvey. He is not going home empty-handed this year. AND imagine the horror in the auditorium if Russell takes Director, and EVERYONE is fearing that Silver Linings/Harvey train can upset Best Picture AGAIN (which it won’t).
I really think Russell can win this. And it doesn’t mean anything that he didn’t get the DGA nomination. He is in the race—just be prepared before his win almost assuredly shocks and infuriates you on Oscar night.
Quite easy to deny that Lincoln was the film of the year. There. I just did it.
Don’t agree that it was that smart, layered and subtle. I’ve seen far better political movies (and TV-series for that matter). I don’t think it holds a candle to the aforementioned Becket.
Will Academy voters revolt against boredom?
This is insane. Argo was a good film, but definitely not the best of the year-Top Ten, but not even top five. I think the “sympathy” band wagon for Affleck accompanied by the networking by Clooney who I feel is getting people on board is going to help Argo beat out at least 3-4 pictures that are far superior. I am not Argo-bashing, I did like the film, it just isn’t one of the top 3 of the year. I would rather have seen Ang Lee win this.
I have a feeling at some point there will be some backlash for the Affleck sympathy mongering-and I don’t think he’s doing himself any favors in the future by playing up the “Academy ignored me, poor me” angle. I think they will remember how this year went and how he handled it. Don’t see any nominations or wins in Afflecks future. This was Speilbergs hands down. (And I am not a fan-boy-I usually hate Speilberg movies.) But there is no denying that Lincoln was the film of the year on so many levels. Shame on you DGA.
“This is becoming one of the most boring, predictable Oscar seasons ever.”
Every year someone comes up with this comment. It never fails, but I must say it took a while this season.
Meanwhile, having lots of fun with the “psychotic meltdown” (as someone wrote) Lincoln/Spielberg fans are having.
This is undoubtably one of the best years for great films. So much passion from so many on their thoughts, opinions and their favorite. This awards season is the melting pot of all that is grand. Somehow it’s vogue to respect and agree to disagree. I personally love that this year is not following the norm.
This is becoming one of the most boring, predictable Oscar seasons ever. Argo is going to take home the big prize sadly. I’ve never been less excited for the Oscars.
Best Pictures Since 1960 That Lost Screenplay (Winner in Parentheses):
West Side Story (Judgment at Nuremberg)
Lawrence of Arabia (To Kill a Mockingbird)
My Fair Lady (Becket)
The Sound of Music (Not even nominated!! Doctor Zhivago took Adapted, Darling original)
Oliver! (The Lion in Winter)
Rocky (Network)
The Deer Hunter (Coming Home)
Platoon (Hannah and Her Sisters)
Unforgiven (The Crying Games)
Braveheart (The Usual Suspects, not a Best Picture nominee; Sense and Sensibility took Adapted)
The English Patient (Sling Blade, not a Best Picture nominee; Fargo took Original)
Titanic (Not nominated! L.A. Confidential took Adapted, Good Will Hunting Original)
Gladiator (Almost Famous, not a Best Picture nominee; Traffic took Adapted)
Chicago (The Pianist)
Million Dollar Baby (Sideways)
The Artist (Midnight in Paris)
People, that’s 16 times in 52 years! Nearly 1/3 of the time! Given how fucked up this year is, why wouldn’t Picture and Screenplay split? If only they had nominated Affleck and then they would have been content to give Argo Picture, Director, and Editing!
But either way, Lincoln should win for Screenplay. It’s the Becket of that group. Some of the most beloved films in Academy history didn’t win for their screenplays (including Ben-Hur, which won in its 11 other categories), so I don’t see why Argo would be different–unless the voters are feeling like they have to justify its Best Picture win with a win in one substantial category.
*Since 1960, the only movies to win Picture without Director OR Screenplay are GLADIATOR and CHICAGO. Will Argo be the third?*
Note Wings, Grand Hotel, and Mutiny on the Bounty won Picture and nothing else. The Great Ziegfeld didn’t win Director or Screenplay, but Actress. Rebecca won Picture and Cinematography. This is the 1940s all over again with the preferential ballot.
I’m going out on a ledge here, but maybe, just maybe, Argo could win because the Academy just thinks it’s a better movie. Not because they prefer it’s political subtext, not because they want to justify some snub, not because it will make a good “Affleck-comeback” story, but just because they like it more.
Weird attitude, where some people think Lincoln is clearly better, so there must be some big complot theory if it doesn’t win. It can’t be because people think Argo is better since the Spielbergites don’t think it’s better and they think of themselves as connaisseurs, so it’s completely incomprehensible that someone else should feel differently.
I’m so damn glad that Ben Affleck won the Best Director DGA last night! I sensed that he would, but it was shaky. I also hate how people’s ire for Argo is really on fire now and having the poor taste, literally of saying that it’s a weak film and not one of the best this year. I’m still amazed how it was edged out of the People’s Choice award at TIFF last year for SLP, but I got a conspiracy about that. The audience just loved the film and I have never, ever been at a TIFF film in the nearly ten years of a going, where the applause after the film was not only loud, but long, several minutes. I had to watch the movie for a second time recently to hear the last five minutes of the film where President Carter was speaking (I didn’t hear it the first time at TIFF).
What I’m saying is that Argo is hitting an emotional target with people. I was a kid in ’79 with the Iran hostage situation, and even then, I knew it was a horrible political situation, and Argo today helped me better understand in.
Also, at my blog where I support Argo, I said that this is the only film this year that makes ‘Hollywood the Hero’, and they are loving this narrative. Yes, Ben Affleck was not nominated for an Oscar, ok, we got that AMPAS, but he and Argo has won every precursor guild award leading up to the Oscars, and the DGA win solidifies Argo for the Best Picture. This doesn’t mean Lincoln sucks (it’s a fine film), but it’s not going to win. Every year we all bitch and whine about this film vs that film. This year it’s Lincoln vs Argo, and with Affleck and Bigelow out of the way, Spielberg could win the Best Director, but Argo is so totally going to win the Best Picture Oscar, especially if AMPAS wants to maintain some sort of dignity.
This has got to be the most confusing awards season I’ve seen in years. You can almost feel the dislike of Spielberg as much as you feel the dislike for Meryl when she’s nominated. The “critics” who accuse everyone of hating Ben Affleck and Argo are really mistaken because even though those of us who have an attachment for Lincoln, Life of Pi, Amour, Beasts, or whatever have never claimed that Affleck shouldn’t have been considered. I don’t recall anyone who has championed another film saying that Affleck’s work wasn’t good. But the fact is that his work is ‘just good’.
Most all of us have acknowledged that Kushner’s screenplay for Lincoln is far superior to the pedestrian screenplay for Argo. Yes pedestrian. Argo’s screenplay is tight and the film moves quickly but where’s the substance? Where is there any true character development? Arkin and Goodman are regulated to delivering one liners. Affleck is regulated to walking around looking like his mind is on overload. There really isn’t any dialogue that is earth shattering. The only character in the film that really creates any suspense is the young woman working in the Canadian Embassy and you wonder if she’s going to betray the Americans. The cinematography certainly doesn’t compare to Pi or Lincoln. The Art Direction is about as pedestrian as the screenplay. And for all the criticism I’ve leveled as pedestrian it works and you have a successful film. A good film but not a great film. I will give the William Goldberg props for editing because the truth of the matter is that had he not kept Argo fast and tight it would be a mess. That’s what truly saves Argo is the editing.
What really is confusing is this simple fact. The directors branch of the Academy nominates the five directors. They didn’t nominate Affleck. Then the Director’s Guild turns around and gives him the Best Director of the year award. What did Adam Sandler vote for Affleck? I think that George Clooney has really tarnished his own reputation at this point. When I consider the directors who must be members of AMPAS coming to the conclusion that Argo’s direction didn’t deserve notice then I just scratch my head. Because honestly there really isn’t anything truly moving about Argo? And that doesn’t mean that I think Argo is a bad film because I don’t. I enjoyed it. I mean Ridley Scott made have fallen short with Prometheus but are the technical values of Argo better than Prometheus? Think about it Argo got nominated for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. For what? For regulating the chanting of the crowds outside the embassy or for the sound of the jet taking off at the airport?
Very confusing.
PS: Was Affleck channeling Chers Oscar speech with his line ” I don’t think this makes me a real director. But I think it means I’m on my way”?
The more I think about it — Argo is not a great movie, it’s not the BEST movie, but the subject (hostages in Iran) fits into the political culture of the Academy. Waving the American flag, American pride, and all.
We could be looking at another “Traffic” type win.
“It’s not better than Pi, it’s not better than ZD30, it’s not better than Beasts, it’s not better than Amour, it’s not better than The Master, it’s not better than Django….”
Of course, the same can be said for Lincoln. (Okay, Lincoln is better than Django, I’ll give you that.)
“There is too much shitting on other movies lately. I mean really immature and obnoxious comments.
I read here every day, but have little interest in participating lately.”
Miss you, Mattoc. But I know what you mean.
@TONY: For many and different reasons the women’s lineup is seldomly as good the men’s. I reckon some of it has to do with material available and longivity. There are less than a handful of women who can get great material after certain age. Case in point: Sally Field’s need to get an okay from DDL to be casted in Lincoln before Spielberg casted her.
Streep isn’t on the same level as DDL truth be told. She’s great and all, but you don’t walk out from her films feeling overwhelmed of her talent. I don’t.
I hope Hollywood changes and more women get greater roles for longer period of their careers. But as it is now, Streep winning is like Norway winning in Women’s Handball. Much of it can be attributed to the lack of competition.
@ Femme Fatale: Ditto me too.
Steve50, you’ve obviously been taking too much Lefteperol or some similar drug that causes psychotic episodes as a side effect. If you weren’t normally so agreeable, I’d have to tell those raging theater queens chasing you about your LuPone gambit 🙂
I do have to disagree with you when you say you believe the gravy train for Argo is over and the race is between SLP and Lincoln. Early on, it looked like ZDT might be the overwhelming critical favorite this season, and for awhile it was. But then the torture controversy happened and then suddenly the remain critics awards suddeny started going to Argo, this was before the Academy snub.
Now I have no clue what the directors were thinking. I still don’t think the snub was intentional, I just prefer to believe that the votes were very close, but either way his absence is of note.
But is it significant? I’d argue not. In most years there is a huge dropoff of quality from the top film to the first film left off the ballots, we’ll call that the nunber 6 film. This year, that’s not the case. Any way you shake it, if you rank the nine films nominated for Best Pic, whatever film you put at #6 is going to be widely respected. Except for Les Miz, all 9 films have pretty universal critical acceptance.
IN summation, there are usually only two or three films that are “BP material” but this year there are far more. I would wager that if we had this many films of high quality every year, and the academy kept the current process intact, that we’d see the BP winner not have a corresponding director more often.
I still think Argo has a good enough critical reception to win. It is Academy friendly. It has good Box Office, it’s got a good pedigree, it’s sufficiently prestigious. But most of all it won’t be in the bottom tier of very many preferential ballots.
I think it wins easily.
Has a movie/director (read Lincoln) ever won after losing BFCA, PFA, DGA, Golden Globes and SAG? Extremely likely that Bafta will join that list.
Even Driving Miss Daisy, Crash and Braveheart (or at least Mel Gibson) had at least won something.
Let’s get real here: Picture is always a crapshoot, a question of which one they liked best. But if Tony Kushner loses the Oscar, it will be the biggest injustice of the season. It’s not like Screenplay goes with Picture; Million Dollar Baby eked out a win but Sideways took Screenplay, while Rocky won only Picture, Director, and Editing. Can Argo please be no more than Rocky? Let Lincoln have Actor, S. Actor, Director, and Screenplay — not too different from Network, which won for 3 actors and Screenplay.
I think it’s obvious Argo won’t be the “big” winner on Oscar night because it won’t win more than 3 to 4 Oscars (i.e. Sound Mixing or Editing), and Lincoln and Pi will probably win more. Lincoln wins 4, Pi wins up to 5 (Cinematography, Visual, Score, and the Sounds). Amour gets 1-3 depending on Screenplay and Actress. Skyfall gets 1-3 if it claims the Sounds. Anna Karenina wins 2. Les Mis wins 2 if it gets Sound Mixing. SLP and ZDT/Django win 1 at most.
In the minds of Lincoln fans none of the awards that ARGO has won so far matter. The ONLY thing that’s important is WGA. Then LINCOLN will win BP! NOW, NOW, NOW!
The only reason LINCOLN should win now is for the Academy to want to save Spielbergs face and honor.
Haneke should invite Spielberg over one weekend to teach a little about making a complex movie about a profound moment in a nations story in a way that’s invigorating and shocking.
Is it wrong to secretly enjoy Affleck’s Oscar snub after all these wins? Ahem, my friend is asking.
Roberto P, he hasn’t won it means his direction is bad? Affleck won everything while similar film ZD30’s direction is far superior than it. Why you don’t consider that?
When a gifted actor like DDL has been in only 7 movies in the past 20 years, he damn well better be spectacular — he has so much time to prepare!
Since 2006, Meryl has given us “A Prairie Home Companion,” “The Devil Wears Prada,” “Mamma Mia,” “Doubt,” “Julie and Julia,” “It’s Complicated,” “The Iron Lady,” and that’s just the good and/or successful stuff — with “Osage” coming later this year. The variety is jaw-dropping.
Steven Spielberg hasn’t won a single Best Director award in all the awards season… Though, he’ll probably win the Oscar. This is the only REAL injustice about this season! For the first time in Oscar history, the director – or actor, lead or supporting, or writer – winning CC, GG, DGA and possibly BAFTA isn’t even nominated for Oscar. Which is very strange, and makes me think it was deliberate by the director branch to erase Spielberg’s competition in order to let him win…
@steve50, I don’t know what movie other people were watching, but while DDL is exquisite as Lincoln, it was an ensemble effort from start to finish. TLJ has to be the frontrunner in supporting after his SAG win, and deservedly. If not for Anne Hathaway, Sally Field would be claiming her third trophy as well, for haunting portrayal of the First Lady. And then you have James Spader, David Strathairn, John Hawkes, and Jackie Earle Haley among others providing sterling support in character turns. No, most of the characters don’t share substantial screentime with each other, but this is one superior ensemble.
So..when’s the last time a movie that won PGA, DGA, and SAG lost the Oscar/wasn’t nominated for Director? Apollo 13? A similar WTF-is-this-winning-everything-like-SAG film.
Now I’m glad Ben was snubbed. I’d rather he win Director and another film win Picture, but his direction was good, not brilliant, so at least if they give Argo Picture, they are still forced to pick another film for Director. And that will be exciting!
When’s the last time a film won Best Picture without any of the top guild wins? Braveheart? Even that won WGA – over Apollo 13 and The Usual Suspects. Lincoln HAS to win WGA to stay in this race, but also because it truly is the best script.
And since the PGA introduced the preferential ballot, when have they been wrong? Never.
I’ve been saying it for months: Argo will win the Academy Award because any film with good reviews that portrays “Hollywood” or “filmmaking” in a positive light will nab the Oscar. I won’t mention the hypocrisy of the Hollywood community in arriving at the selection of Argo given the violent schlock and infantile fanboy scrap they release every week of the year. But members of the film community like to think they work in a noble industry and Argo fits the bill perfectly. Plus the naive left like Argo because it demonstrates you can defeat Islamic terrorism without bullets. Yeah, right. At any rate the real interesting race Oscar night will be best director. As the various guild selections indicate, Spielberg appears vulnerable (somebody has to be responsible for its often turgid qualities). So I wouldn’t be surprised if they select Haneke for degree of difficulty. Ang Lee appears very much in the running, as well.
Excellent analysis steve50 on what’s ahead. I think also that Argo, a good and respected film without a best director nom, has its hill to climb going forward. Exciting to see where BAFTA and the rest of the guilds go.
*remainder*