Independent Spirit Awards predictions

beasts wild

It’s widely believed and often proven that winning an Independent Spirit Award the day before the Academy Awards is the kiss of death for nominees on Oscar Night.   In a year as topsy-turvy as this, it remains to be seen whether that conventional wisdom will hold true again this weekend.  Sasha, Craig and I didn’t talk with each other in advance about how each of us were leaning and our conflicting instincts have caused us to split off in 3 different directions. You can find our predictions after the cut, as well as a complete list of the Spirit Awards nominees so you can get your own guesses on record in the comments.

The Independent Spirit Awards will be broadcast on IFC at 10 p.m. ET and 2 hours later on the West Coast at 10 p.m. PT — since they still don’t have a handle on this whole concept of how “we all have the internet now.”  Doesn’t much matter since the ceremony itself will be held earlier in the day beginning on the red carpet around noon.

Our predictions after the cut.

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Sasha Stone’s picks:

BEST FEATURE
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST SCREENPLAY
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST FIRST FEATURE
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
Middle of Nowhere

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST MALE LEAD
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Ann Dowd, Compliance
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST DOCUMENTARY
How to Survive a Plague

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Amour (France), Michael Haneke
=====Craig Kennedy’s picks:

Picture: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Director: Benh Zeitlin
Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
First Feature: Perks of Being a Wallflower
First Screenplay: Robot and Franky
Cassavetes: The Color Wheel
Female Lead: Mary Elizabeth Winstead
Male Lead: Jack Black
Supporting Female: Helen Hunt
Supporting Male: Matthew McConaughey
Cinematography: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Documentary: The Invisible War
International: Amour
Paget Producers: Nobody Walks
Someone to Watch: Pincus, David Fenster
Truer than Fiction: Leviathan
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Ryan Adams’ picks:

BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST DIRECTOR
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Stephen Chbosky (director);  Lianne Halfon, John Malkovich, Russell Smith (producers)

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
Middle of Nowhere
Ava DuVernay (writer-director-producer); Howard Barish, Paul Garnes (producers)

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere

BEST MALE LEAD
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Michael Péna, End of Watch

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch

BEST DOCUMENTARY
How to Survive a Plague

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Amour (France), Michael Haneke

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD
Prince Avalanche, Derrick Tseng (producer)

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
Electrick Children, Rebecca Thomas (director)

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
Leviathan, Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel (directors)

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2013 Spirit Awards, complete list of nominees

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BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey & Josh Penn (producers)
Bernie
Liz Glotzer, Richard Linklater, David McFadzean, Dete Meserve, Judd Payne, Celine Rattray, Martin Shafer, Ginger Sledge, Matt Williams (producers)
Keep the Lights On
Marie Therese Guirgis, Lucas Joaquin, Ira Sachs (producers)
Moonrise Kingdom
Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin (producers)
Silver Linings Playbook
Bruce Cohen, Donna Gigliotti, Jonathan Gordon (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE
(Award given to the director and producer)
Fill the Void
Rama Burshtein (director); Assaf Amir (producer)
Gimme the Loot
Adam Leon (director); Dominic Buchanan, Natalie Difford, Jamund Washington (producers)
Safety Not Guaranteed
Colin Trevorrow (director); Derek Connolly, Stephanie Langhoff, Peter Saraf, Colin Trevorrow, Marc Turtletaub (producers)
Sound of My Voice
Zal Batmanglij (director); Brit Marling, Hans Ritter, Shelley Surpin (producers)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Stephen Chbosky (director);  Lianne Halfon, John Malkovich, Russell Smith (producers)

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rama Burshtein, Fill the Void
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed
Christopher Ford, Robot & Frank
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever
Jonathan Lisecki, Gayby

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
(Given to the best feature made for under $500,000. Award given to the writer, director, and producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)
Breakfast with Curtis
Laura Colella (writer-director-producer)
Middle of Nowhere
Ava DuVernay (writer-director-producer); Howard Barish, Paul Garnes (producers)
Mosquita y Mari
Aurora Guerrero (writer-director); Chad Burris (producer)
Starlet
Sean Baker (writer-director); Chris Bergoch (writer); Blake Ashman-Kipervaser, Kevin Chinoy, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Francesca Silvestri (producers)
The Color Wheel
Alex Ross Perry (writer-director-producer); Carlen Altman (writer)

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Linda Cardellini, Return
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

BEST MALE LEAD
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce, Four

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Michael Péna, End of Watch
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yoni Brook, Valley of Saints
Lol Crawley, Here
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch
Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST DOCUMENTARY
(Award given to the director and producer)
How to Survive a Plague
David France (director); David France, Howard Gertler (producers)
Marina Abramović: The Artist is Present
Matthew Akers (director); Maro Chermayeff, Jeff Dupre (producers)
The Central Park Five
Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon (directors-producers)
The Invisible War
Kirby Dick (director); Tanner King Barklow, Amy Ziering (producers)
The Waiting Room
Peter Nicks (director-producer); Linda Davis, William B. Hirsch (producers)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
(Award given to the director)
Amour (France), Michael Haneke
Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Turkey), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
Rust And Bone (France/Belgium), Jacques Audiard
Sister (Switzerland), Ursula Meier
War Witch (Democratic Republic of Congo), Kim Nguyen

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD
(The 16th annual Piaget Producers Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources demonstrate the creativity, tenacity, and vision required to produce quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by Piaget.)
Nobody Walks, Alicia Van Couvering (producer)
Prince Avalanche, Derrick Tseng (producer)
Stones in the Sun, Mynette Louie (producer)

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
(The 19th annual Someone to Watch Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.)
Pincus, David Fenster (director)
Gimme the Loot, Adam Leon (director)
Electrick Children, Rebecca Thomas (director)

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
(The 18th annual Truer Than Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.)
Leviathan, Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel (directors)
The Waiting Room, Peter Nicks (director)
Only the Young, Jason Tippet & Elizabeth Mims (directors)

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
(Given to one film’s director, casting director, and its ensemble cast)
Starlet, Sean Baker (director); Julia Kim (casting director); Dree Hemingway, Besedka Johnson, Karren Karagulian, Stella Maeve, James Ransone (cast)

19 Comments on this Post

  1. Here’s hoping Ann dowd gets the love she oh so deserves

  2. If Dowd actually wins, I’m kind of scared to see what her speech will consist of.

  3. I am a Independent spirit awards voter. My votes’.

    Best feature Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Best director Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the southern wild
    Best screenplay SIlver linnings PLaybook
    David O Russell
    Best first feature the Perks Of being a Wallflower
    Best first screenplay Derick Connolly Safety
    not Guaranteed
    Best female lead. Quvenzhane Wallis BEasts of the Southern WIld

    Best male lead. Bradley Cooper Silver linnings PLaybook

    Best supporting female Helen HUnt the SEssions

    Best supporting male Matthew McConaughey Magic MIke

    best cinematography Ben Richardson BEasts

    of the southern Wild
    Best documentary how to survive a plague

    Best international film AMour

    I did not receive screeners for the middle of nowhere and fill the void I had no way of seeing either of these films so if you want me to vote for you sent screeners

  4. Mary Elizabeth Winstead MUST win this!

  5. While I used to have a great deal of respect for these awards, they lost me last year when they went apeshit for The Artist, ignoring far better films like Drive and Margin Call.

    So this year, I’ll be pessimistic and say Harvey will clean up again with Silver Linings Playbook, with the odd worthy nod to Perks.

    So if they go with Ryan’s picks, they’ll have my interest once again; if they go with Sasha’s predictions, they’re just another eggroll on the same plate. I have a feeling I’ll be hungry an hour after these are over.

  6. Simone Fabriziani

    Any links for streaming or live feed of the ceremony?
    How many hours still to go?

  7. @steve50

    Honestly, Drive was so unbearably awesome. I guess it’s just too cool for the awards school.
    I’m betting Beasts of the Southern Wild walks away with Picture, Director, Cinematography and maybe Actress.

  8. Richard Crawford

    Ryan, disliked BEASTS. Did like her face…it’s lovely.

  9. I have to agree with steve50’s comment. There has been a rather disturbing trend in many award shows preceding the Oscars, including the Indie Spirit Awards, in that they try to “predict” or “match” what the Oscar results. I don’t mean that these award shows will always try to hand out the awards to the exact same films and roles as the Oscars, but they give their awards to the most famous/Oscar nominated of their nominees. Obviously, the Cesars are not going to nominate “Argo” for their Best Film, but yesterday, they gave it their Best Foreign Film award, and the most famous of the Oscar Film nominees, “Amour,” swept the top 5 categories. The ISA are not going to nominate the big Hollywood blockbusters, but usually, the most famous and Oscar nominated of the nominees end up winning the majority of the big awards.

    The Indie Spirit Awards have really lost its appeal for me, for many reasons including that it’s no longer televised live from the Santa Monica tent. The film among ISA nominees that is the most recognized and Oscar nominated usually wins multiple awards. For example, Sideways in 2005 won 6 Indie Spirit Awards. Lost in Translation and Monster won the major awards in 2004. Brokeback Mountain won Feature and Director in 2006. Little Miss Sunshine won 4 ISA in 2007. Precious won 5 ISA in 2010 and Jeff Bridges won Male Lead. Black Swan, James Franco, King’s Speech (Foreign Film), Winter’s Bone, and The Kids are All Right won the major awards in 2011. The Artist won all the major awards last year. What is the common link here? Many of the recent movies that won Best Feature were nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. Now they do nominate obscure films that were not Oscar recognized, but somehow, they never have a chance against Oscar-nominated competition.

    Actually, last year was the “perfect awards movie,” in which “The Artist” swept the Film/Directing/Lead Actor categories at the Oscars, BAFTAs, Golden Globes (except Director), Cesars (Lead Actress instead of Lead Actor), and Indie Spirit Awards. It also won the PGA, DGA, and the SAG for Lead Actor.

    These trends indicate to me that the ISA are probably going to focus on most likely Silver Linings Playbook and/or Beasts of the Southern Wild for their top awards, as those are the two major movies nominated for the Oscars for Picture/Director/Lead Actress/Screenplay, among others. I would rather see Moonrise Kingdom or Keep the Lights On win Best Feature, but somehow, I doubt it. Of the two top contenders, Beasts would be a better choice.

  10. rufussondheim

    Don’t have the time to go predict everything but I am going to predict Moonrise Kingdom for the win!

    It’s the most widely critically accepted of the lot. I hope that counts for something. Although I would be thrilled if Keep the Lights On managed to win anything.

  11. It wasn’t the kiss of death last year. That rule doesn’t always add up.

    And I know it won’t happen but I’d love it if Wendell Pierce won. I worked on that film, he’s great!

  12. I hope Beasts and Moonrise get some love tonight because they embody the indie spirit.

  13. It would be great if this was where Beasts of the Southern Wild had their chance to shine. But I think this will be Silver Linings Playbook night.

    Also would be great if McConaughey won both Lead and Supporting. Not happening but it would be great if he wins something this late in the season. I really hope his turns in Mud and The Wolf on Wall Street (and maybe The Dallas Buyer’s Club) are awards-worthy. I definitely think there are still some skeptics who really should have been turned by this last year by McConaughey and I just find those people dead inside.

    I agree with the ISA losing its actual ‘Spirit’. One thing to acknowledge one of your own like a David O. Russell again (because they rewarded him so early in his career) but trying to match the Oscars and other precursors just has not sat right with me.

  14. Christophe

    Team Moonrise over here! But I’m not kidding myself, I know Wes Anderson is far too avant-garde for most voters even at the Spirits.

  15. I thought Ann Dowd was fantastic, but I don’t understand why she was consistently submitted and awarded as Supporting. She’s in nearly every scene, and the plot hinges on her character. I’m all for any accolades she receives, but the Lead Actress category contains performances that were more supporting than Dowd’s. She needs an upgrade.

  16. Erik Anderson

    No way Beasts prevails over SLP. The Independent Spirits used to be the anti-Oscars but now they’re pretty much a fluffer for the big show. I expect SLP to dominate big cats and Helen Hunt for Supporting. Middle of Nowhere stands a good chance at John Cassavetes Award and Supporting Male though, I think.

  17. I am leaving the Internet until after the IFC broadcast of the Spirit Awards.
    See you later

  18. The J Viewer

    Julie,

    Thank you very much for sharing. Cheers.

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