14 Comments on this Post

  1. Nice wrap up with Tom, but you’re scaring me by saying me at the end by saying that the Academy may still want to keep Picture and Director together and give it to Silver Linings. Not a real possibility is it?
    Please a hint on which director told you he didn’t like Argo!

  2. Off topic, but did anyone else notice that in the Predict the Oscars contest, under the SOUND MIXING tab, you can choose “Total Recall”?

    LOL. Please don’t change that.

  3. Astarisborn

    Enjoyed the podcast. Interesting Sasha that you said will there could be a backlash with Argo? I’ve had that feeling a lot lately. Also you brought everything into perspective when you said “you can’t really make anybody like a movie”. That hit home.

  4. If ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ could win best Adapted Screenplay there is no reason why the sequel cannot do the same for David O Russell.

  5. moviewatcher

    jack: it’s Scorsese…

    I hope…

  6. Tom says not enough voters will have seen Amour. But enough people saw it to nominate it in the top categories! I personally do not think Riva is giving an undeniable performance. But I also agree that Lawrence is too glib in interviews and has probably rubbed a lot of non-SLP fans the wrong way both in the movie and outside of it.

    Tom compares it to Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. But Reese actually sang in her movie and had been around longer then than Jennifer Lawrence now. And Felicity Huffman was very good, but she was seen as too-TV, and while it was a transformative performance, it wasn’t on the level of Monster or La Vie en Rose. It was too comical to win.

    …But yeah, most Academy members would say Riva isn’t even on the level of Riva in terms of current star power. Lawrence is the “smart” choice.

    I still don’t buy Waltz as the frontrunner for that kind of performance in another Tarantino film so soon. Lincoln can win 2 acting awards and nothing else and still lose Picture to Argo without it looking too weird. Jones has been around a long time. In the years since his first win, he has made the Men in Black films, No Country for Old Men, and In the Valley of Elah. I think his industry support is being underestimated, though if you really want to talk about industry support, De Niro is a spoiler. He may not win votes, but he may steal votes from Jones.

    And I don’t feel like Django is going to win more than 1 Oscar, if even. It’s interesting how the Colorado shooting was seen as destroying The Dark Knight Rises’ chances, as if it ever had any, but Django, with all its scandal, got the BP nomination and several awards for Tarantino and Waltz. The power of Weinstein?

  7. I think the issue was that the CO shooting happened during a showing of The Dark Knight Rises, so they were directly related.

    Plus, TDKR paled in comparison to The Dark Knight. Not fair since TDKR should be compared to other films this year, but I can’t really see where it deserved to be nominated. I wasn’t that ga-ga over it or Nolan’s direction. I also thought the Marion Cotillard/Talia death scene so incredibly, unintentionally humorous. It takes a lot to make Cotillard seem like a mediocre actress, but Nolan managed to do that twice.

  8. I keep on going back and forth on Riva for what Sasha and others say about Lawrence but also what Tom has said about AMPAS members not seeing Amour. I blame the Weinstein-backing and campaigning for my view of Lawrence and a pretty innocuous film that I saw way back before it boomed to have been colored. I felt like an inflated supporting role of very little dimension beyond her relation to the male character should have more bearing on her winning than her age or how she comes off among the actors due to her acting like this whole thing is easy for her (I think Anne Thompson noted that she was received rather coldly at the nominees party).

    Also great point on Affleck’s ‘prom king’ status among the Academy. Two previous recent winners are not nominated but somehow he is the tragedy (despite one of those other nominees being called a Nazi propagandist and dealing with the threat of investigation that really could scare off other filmmakers from taking on the same subject). This speaks to my mixed feelings about the directors branch. I can definitely see the director who Sasha talked to believing that Affleck’s direction and the film did not impress the branch but I also buy O’Neil noting this group is also pretty sexist and caved to the idea that showing a murky, controversial part of American history turned them off to Bigelow. But in Affleck’s case the rest of the Academy likes him and thinks of him as one of their own who matured and changed, redeeming the accolade they gave him early in his career. Had this had been any other person, like a Grant Heslov, a Stephen Gaghan, or even somebody like a Mike Nichols who already has a million different kind of awards (Charlie Wilson’s War is a nice companion piece to Argo in terms of populist CIA mission movies), this would have gone back to the pack with very little commotion.

    I think DeNiro wins due to the fact aside from Jones and Hoffman (little shot for PSH), the idea of Arkin and Waltz suddenly being two-time winners in a very short period of time just will not sit well with some voters. I think Michael Musto had it right that at some point with certain actors, you do not care about the movie they win for but whether or not they have won and how many times they won becomes the issue. It was true for Meryl Streep last year and it may be true with DeNiro.

  9. I totally buy the De Niro argument — just mass-voting for him to have a well-deserved third Oscar in his lifetime, when there’s no blow-me-away competition and the rest are all winners not considered his equal as an actor. Plus it gives SLP a win. But if the performance matters too much for politics to be the deciding factor, then BAFTA and the HFPA have already made it clear that they don’t think De Niro is close to being worthy this time. And sure, Meryl was so overdue that they could overlook her weak film and her strong competition. But I don’t think they completely overlooked The Iron Lady when she won. Rather, she WAS playing a meaty historical figure. And for the first time in years, she wasn’t facing anyone considered undeniable or overdue.

    But I’m waiting to hear that Harvey sent out the email to give De Niro his third Oscar. Though it must be hard with him, with two strong dogs in the race.

  10. I LOVE when you and Tom do podcasts together. You’re both obviously good friends and have good friend-chemistry and that really comes across on the podcast. And you’re both Oscar wonks which makes it fun to listen to you to suss it all out together. And hey, unlike Jeff Wells, Tom isn’t typing or taking out the garbage or doing any number of other annoying LOUD things while you’re talking, thereby revealing that he’s more interested in hearing himself talk and not really concentrating on what you have to say.

    More Sasha & Tom please!

  11. Thanks Jesse! Tom’s my good pal. I love talking to him any time, about anything!

  12. You guys deserve your own squish-name. Sashom? Tasha?

  13. De Niro wins supporting actor and that will be the acting win for SLP. Riva wins Best Actress. For the person who says something about current star power, this will be one of those cases where that will not matter. Cotillard wasn’t exactly a star when she won for La Vie En Rose. Enough voters will have seen Amour and she will sweep the older vote and that’s the majority. It’s the performance of the year, hands down and it will win because of that. The young vote will split between Chastain, Lawrence,Watts & Wallis. The older vote will go for Riva.

  14. Zach, I have a question for you, and I kind of spoke about it earlier but from one of your posts: “…But yeah, most Academy members would say Riva isn’t even on the level of Riva in terms of current star power. Lawrence is the “smart” choice.”

    What this about most Academy members and why would they not know Riva? She’s a very well known actress among her peers and most Academy members are older and in their 50’s. Bringing up Marion again, she won because of those same older voters who knew who Edith Piaf was. Younger voters didn’t have a clue. It was the Old, majority that put Marion over the top, just like it will be those same old voters who will put Riva over the top. Most of the older voters will remember her great work in 1959s Hiroshima, mon amour. And she’ll also win votes from those who admire Jean-Louis Trintignant, who shamefully, was snubbed and was every bit as good.

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