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Oscar bits and bites

22 Comments

  1. Kane
    February 19, 2013

    50/50 split on Ang Lee and Spielberg, 50/50 split on Deakins and Miranda, 3-way between QT, Boal and Haneke, 50/40 between Riva (favored) and Lawrence with Chastain fighting to stay in. Supporting actor? Well if a quater had 5 sides…

  2. February 19, 2013

    I know most will probably be going with Best Supporting Actor, where a four-way log jam (Jones, Waltz, DeNiro, Hoffman) continues to show no sign of settling up soon. The opening of the envelope will really be the only time we can be sure of anything in fact.

    But I do think with Riva’s late rush that Best Actress is now just as inconclusive. Hopefully the 85 year-old star will in the end prevail over the two babes that many have predicted will prevail.

    And yes, the Best Director race is anything but spoken for as well. It still looks real close between Spielberg-Lee-Haneke, in that slight order of probability. Only Zeitlin appears out, in the same way that Arkin is out for ARGO.

  3. steve50
    February 19, 2013

    I don’t have a lot of confidence that Riva can overtake Lawrence at this point and cinematography and original screenplay is pretty much a coin toss.

    Supporting actor is tough, but I’m finding it difficult to get too excited about it.

    That leaves best director, probably the most important award of the night since BP is a no brainer. “Where do the Argo voters go” will be the nailbiter of the night.

    Zeitlan – not likely.

    Spielberg? It would be a balm for any guilty feelings they might have about not voting for the 16th president for best film.

    Lee? Do you think they really recognize the years biggest directing challenge?

    Haneke? Will the crowd that give BP to Argo have seen Amour?

    Life of Pi, Lincoln, Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild require some mental participation from the audience. Argo only asked that you sit there and go with it.

    Oh, god. I don’t like the last alternative, the other “just sit there and go with it” option.

  4. Zach
    February 19, 2013

    Um, wow, I voted for Original Screenplay. Supporting Actor could go a few different ways, but I don’t think Hoffman is in it, and I’m OK with sticking to Jones. But take out Cinematography and replace it with Animated, Adapted, Makeup, Sound Editing, or even Picture.

  5. Sammy
    February 19, 2013

    Director – Three way tie between Lee, Haneke and Spielberg. If Argo wins BP this would be Haneke.

    Supporting Actor – I do not think Waltz will win with a similar role of Basterds. This will be TLJ or PSH. Fingers crossed for PSH but close call.

    Original Screenplay – Amour is the only movie that has a director nod. So Amour is the natural favorite to win this but anything is possible between Haneke, Tarantino and Boal.

    Actress – No competition. Riva’s name is in the envelope. Who will present this award?

    Cinematography – Miranda and Deakins. Hard to predict one especially after the ASC win for Deakins.

  6. Sammy
    February 19, 2013

    @steve50 – Haneke? Will the crowd that give BP to Argo have seen Amour?

    Do you think Amour accidentally got into that BP list? They loved the movie so much that they have even excluded Affleck in favor of Haneke. Think about it.

  7. Kane
    February 19, 2013

    @Steve50, they loved Amour so much they gave it 4 nominations.

    @Sammy, I’m not sure Affleck was excluded in favor of Haneke. I’m starting to think his omission was one giant fluke to be honest. If anybody had the longest shot of getting in over those 5 I beleive it was Zeitlen. There were rumbles of Haneke’s prospects, not just wishful thinking but “oh shit this could happen”, back in December when Amour won some critics awards. But I still need to see Amour and I’ve been dying to all season!

  8. Danemychal
    February 19, 2013

    I took supporting actor just over director. 4 people could realistically win each that category whereas 3 could win Director. To be able to say that about the Best Director race is just crazy, by the way.

  9. Danemychal
    February 19, 2013

    And sorry Sammy, but David O. Russell will get at least double Haneke’s votes. Would not shock me to see him win Director. Haneke might get original screenplay if he’s lucky but is competing with Boal for the prestige vote and QT for the popular vote there. Being nominated and getting awarded foreign language Oscar will be his reward. He’s your 4th place finisher.

  10. Jerry Grant
    February 19, 2013

    Best Director is a very clear fight between Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee and David O. Russell and Michael Haneke

  11. Sammy
    February 19, 2013

    @Danemychal – You may be right but think about the Polanski situation. He was able to win against some big guns like Scorsese, Marshall (DGA winner). This year(without Affleck and Bigelow in the list) I am getting ready for the Haneke win.

  12. Gustavo Silva
    February 19, 2013

    As much as I would love to see Deakins winning at last, I don’t see how they could go for anything but Pi in cinematography, especially after they awarded a much inferior similar one (Avatar). So it’s not unpredictable to me.

    Actress is not necessarily unpredictable because it’s 50/50.

    Original Screenplay is a three-way race but I’m sold on the idea that they will award Tarantino as a person, same way they did with Woody last year.

    Supporting Actor is difficult but Waltz is a strong frontrunner. It won Globe and BAFTA and lost SAG probably because he wasn’t nominated. I’m going with him. The fact Weinstein shifted the heavy campaign from De Niro to him shows who they believe can win.

    The most unpredictable to me is Director. It’s a FOUR way race for me. Only Zeitlin doesn’t stand a chance. I’m going with Ang Lee but that could change.

  13. The J Viewer
    February 19, 2013

    I clicked Best Director in response. But I kinds of understand why for now why Best Supporting Actor is being on top.

    And I, too, find it quite difficult to get too excited about Best Supporting Actor.

    Just saying.

    [For now, again, for now, in my own book: RIVA 51; LAWRENCE 49.]

  14. The J Viewer
    February 19, 2013

    Correction: But I kinds of understand… = But I kind of understand why for now Best Supporting Actor is being on top. [street/spoken]

  15. steve50
    February 19, 2013

    “They loved the movie so much that they have even excluded Affleck in favor of Haneke. Think about it.”

    Absolutely true. The directors nominated him, as did the writers (deservedly so). FLF was a given and Amour had enough #1 and #2 votes to get into BP.

    My point is – while there is strong support for all the director nominees, where do the Argo voters go now? They are the ones who will make or break this category. Might be a Polanski-style breakaway for Haneke. Depends on the mindset of the actual voters (the entire academy, this round, not just directors or writers) who had planned to vote for Affleck all along and don’t have another horse in the race.

    Like I said – a nailbiter. The good thing is, they have a 4-out-of-5 chance of honoring a deserving nominee.

  16. Mr-Cinema
    February 19, 2013

    Director is easily the most difficult to pick because we have nothing to go on based on pre-Oscar awards. Affleck has cleaned up all the Director awards. At least with the other races, you can use some of the pre-Oscar groups to help make your choices.

  17. Mr-Cinema
    February 19, 2013

    I think the Argo supporters will break for Ang Lee. You could break it down this way. Lee and Spielberg are the only DGA nominees. Lee has a BAFTA nomination and Spielberg doesn’t. Advantage Lee. I do think it’s between these 2 choices, but I’m going with Lee.

  18. Sammy
    February 19, 2013

    Is there anyone who thinks BOTSW has the potential to upset in the adapted screenplay category?

  19. Danemychal
    February 19, 2013

    Sammy – Literally no chance for BOTSW to win screenplay. Too crowded already with Russell clearly advancing as no lower than third after Terrio/Kushner after his BAFTA win. Plus many who don’t pick him for director might award him here. Magee for Life of Pi would probably be 4th.

  20. Paul Voorhies
    February 19, 2013

    Clearly, Sasha feels that Riva is a complete non-threat. It’s between Lawrence and her.

  21. Paul V.
    February 19, 2013

    One wonders if Stone has even gotten around to watching Amour yet.

  22. February 20, 2013

    One wonders if Stone has even gotten around to watching Amour yet.

    She fucking saw it in Cannes, last May, you eejit. And what has convinced you that Sasha doesn’t think Emmanuelle Riva is a threat?

    Why do people insist on talking out their asses when they’ve got mouths?

    I voted for Original Screenplay. I’m torn between Michael Haneke and Quentin Tarantino. But all of these categories are tough to call except Cinematography. What an exciting year!

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