Predicting the BAFTAs

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I have been all that good at predicting the BAFTAs. They are like herding cats in many ways, unless they have aligned themselves with Oscar, which happens on occasion, and especially has been recently since Oscar pushed the date back. Very little wiggle room.  A consensus vote tells us which films are getting the popular vote at  a given moment in time.  And that’s what we’re faced with now and it looks like Argo has that vote locked up.  At least, with the BAFTAs, but maybe the Oscars too – who knows. By this point I might even have to add, who cares.  The BAFTAs will likely be a day for Argo fans to celebrate because they nominated Ben Affleck in the acting category, which tells us they really liked the movie.

But this guy at the Guardian believes that the most nominations might mean something at the BAFTAs – it didn’t mean anything at the Globes, nor the Critics Choice and probably not at the Oscars either — and what a shame that is.  He keeps hope alive over there at the Guardian, even calling Lincoln “the favourite.” But alas.

The real question on many people’s minds is whether Emmanuelle Riva can pick up some buzz at the BAFTAs. Remember, she’s 85. Oscar campaigning is going to be very difficult for her. I suspect she is rather amused by the dog and pony that it is. You live that long and almost everything amuses you. It would be a funny screenplay idea to follow her around with all of the publicists trying to talk her into doing stuff to get the win.  Maybe it is a high honor to win an Oscar. Maybe, in the end, it might not be, not after all we know about them.

It is a little depressing to see these awards always lean towards Oscar.  I am sure the BAFTA could unhinge themselves from Oscar if they wanted to but you can’t get the same attention from the press or the public unless you’re part of the “contest.”   And so this is the house that Jack built.  And we live in it.

Let’s go through the categories one by one.

BEST FILM

  • Argo –Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
  • Les Miserables
  • Life of Pi, Ryan Adams
  • Lincoln
  • Zero Dark Thirty

Argo should handily win since it has all of the buzz right now. I have to stop predicting Lincoln to win because at this point it is no longer good for my heart to do so.  I have to force myself to say Argofuckyourself.  ARGO.  ARGO will win.  ARGO.  Alt. Life of Pi.

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

  • Anna Karenina
  • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
  • Les Miserables — Stone
  • Seven Psychopaths
  • Skyfall, Flores

LEADING ACTOR

You have no idea how much I want to predict Ben Affleck for this.

  • Ben Affleck – Argo
  • Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln –Flores, Adams, Stone
  • Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
  • Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

LEADING ACTRESS

Whatever wins here does get a bit of a bump.  I can tell you this much – if Emmanuelle Riva is called to the stage it will be a powerful moment indeed. If she is not there to accept the award (who could blame her) it might not.  I also think Chastain has a good shot here.  One thing about the Oscar for Best Actress, you have to go all the way back to 1985 to find a year when either the SAG or one of the two Globe winners (or both) did not also win the Oscar. That makes it down to Chastain vs. Lawrence. But how do you not award Riva?

  • Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty 
  • Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
  • Dame Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
  • Emmanuelle Riva – Amour <—Flores, Stone

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Alan Arkin – Argo
  • Javier Bardem – Skyfall
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
  • Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln 
  • Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained <–Flores, Stone

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Adams – The Master
  • Dame Judi Dench – Skyfall
  • Sally Field – Lincoln 
  • Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables <—Flores, Stone
  • Helen Hunt – The Sessions

DIRECTOR

I think Affleck will take it.  Then again, since he wasn’t nominated at the Oscars and they aren’t the DGA so they don’t have to “defend” their choice, it’s possible that the BAFTA might just pick someone else entirely for this, like Michael Haneke for Amour or Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained.  In the end, popularity rules the day and I think Affleck will collect another big win with Picture and Director here.  It will either signal a “oh, come on now” backlash or it will propel him towards an historic Oscar win.

  • Ben Affleck – Argo – Stone
  • Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
  • Michael Haneke – Amour-Flores
  • Ang Lee – Life of Pi
  • Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is a weird one. It could go to anyone.  But I suspect they really liked Django Unchained and since voters are now shying away from Zero Dark Thirty and since Boal just recently won for The Hurt Locker, I think they won’t be able to resist Tarantino. BUT Michael Haneke could win and may very well win the Oscar.

  • Amour – Michael Haneke–Flores 
  • Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino–Stone
  • The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
  • Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
  • Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

My heart is already shattered by the way this year has turned out. Black is white, white is black and I have honestly no idea what these voters will do. But all five of these are good so any winner here will work. Something tells me they won’t go for Lincoln because, well, it’s an American story.  A deep dive into a brilliant book, and one of the most beautifully written scripts I’ve ever read.  Tony Kushner can fucking write.  Even his press release is great.  But fuckitall, Argo has the buzz and it has “plug and play” international appeal and everyone gets the jokes. So Argo it is.   Beasts of the Southern Wild is a beautifully written piece, and like Argo belongs in the original screenplay category.  Both of them could win, hell, life of Pi could win.  Hell, Silver Linings could win. They all could win but only one has “buzzzzzzzzzzz.”

  • Argo – Chris Terrio –Stone
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
  • Life of Pi – David Magee
  • Lincoln – Tony Kushner-Flores
  • Silver Linings Playbook – David O Russell

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

  • James Bobin (director) – The Muppets
  • Dexter Fletcher (director/writer) and Danny King (writer) – Wild Bill
  • Tina Gharavi (director/writer) – I Am Nasrine
  • Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) – The Imposter -Stone
  • David Morris (director) and Jaqui Morris (director/producer) – McCullin

ANIMATED FILM

  • Brave
  • Frankenweenie <–Stone
  • Paranorman

DOCUMENTARY

  • The Imposter
  • Marley
  • McCullin
  • Searching for Sugarman – Flores, Stone
  • West of Memphis

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

  • Amour <–Flores, Stone
  • Headhunters
  • The Hunt
  • Rust and Bone
  • Untouchable

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Anna Karenina
  • Les Miserables
  • Life of Pi <–Stone
  • Lincoln
  • Skyfall

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Anna Karenina <–Flores, Stone
  • Great Expectations
  • Les Miserables
  • Lincoln
  • Snow White and the Huntsman

EDITING

  • Argo-Flores
  • Django Unchained
  • Life of Pi
  • Skyfall
  • Zero Dark Thirty <–Stone

MAKE UP AND HAIR

  • Anna Karenina
  • Hitchcock
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Les Miserables <–Flores, Stone
  • Lincoln

ORIGINAL MUSIC

  • Anna Karenina
  • Argo
  • Life of Pi <–Flores, Stone
  • Lincoln
  • Skyfall

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Anna Karenina <–Flores,Stone
  • Les Miserables
  • Life of Pi
  • Lincoln
  • Skyfall

SOUND

  • Django Unchained
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Les Miserables <–Flores, Stone
  • Life of Pi
  • Skyfall

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Life of Pi <–Flores, Stone
  • Marvel Avengers Assemble
  • Prometheus

===

And here’s Ryan, somehow visualizing Life of Pi winning 7 BAFTA Awards.   And not feeling delusional at all about it.

BEST FILM
• Life of Pi

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
• Anna Karenina

LEADING ACTOR
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

LEADING ACTRESS
• Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Sally Field – Lincoln

DIRECTOR
• Ang Lee – Life of Pi

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Amour – Michael Haneke

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Lincoln – Tony Kushner

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
• Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) – The Imposter

ANIMATED FILM
• Frankenweenie

DOCUMENTARY
• The Imposter

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
• Amour

CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Life of Pi

COSTUME DESIGN
• Anna Karenina

EDITING
• Argo

MAKE UP AND HAIR
• Anna Karenina

ORIGINAL MUSIC
• Life of Pi

PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Life of Pi

SOUND
• Life of Pi

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
• Life of Pi

RISING STAR (public vote)
• Suraj Sharma

A Brief History of the Oscar – BAFTA Relationship

Next Story »

Les Mis Tops BAFTAs but Argo takes the Big One

97 Comments

  1. Alice
    February 8, 2013

    BEST FILM
    Argo

    OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
    Skyfall (and why not?)

    LEADING ACTOR
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln –Stone

    LEADING ACTRESS
    Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

    DIRECTOR
    Ben Affleck – Argo

  2. Zoobi
    February 8, 2013

    There was no SAG in 1985!

  3. ARGO FAN
    February 8, 2013

    Life of pi will sweep bafta. You read it first here

  4. Andrew
    February 8, 2013

    This is a weird season where BAFTA and other guilds may not necessarily prognosticate Oscar result because of the weird, unusual interval now purely for Oscar voting.

    In other words, just for this season alone, all guns are out for Oscar campaigning as relentless as a political election.

    So in trying to weed out guild and precursor influence from Academy voting, they have inevitably invited in a monster leviathan, the greasy wheels of campaigning.

    Which means Lincoln, Argo, Silver Lining etc are all in play from day 1 until the 2 weeks are up. This is the de facto Oscar season.

  5. February 8, 2013

    Pretty much faultless picks, Sasha. I only disagree with you on a few categories, and I can understand your reasoning in all of those cases.

  6. Casey
    February 8, 2013

    Riva! Riva! Riva!

  7. February 8, 2013

    British writers rarely have their finger on the pulse of awards season, btw. Xan Brooks doesn’t make any particularly salient points in his piece, and his argument regarding Lincoln’s nomination count is only mentioned in passing. He doesn’t back it up with any reasoning. Muggle-speak.

  8. February 8, 2013

    I agree that Riva, Hathaway and Day-Lewis are excellent choices. I am less certain of Supporting Actor, but Waltz is as good as choice as any, and he was terrific in that role.

    As to “Best British Film” yep I am certain LES MISERABLES will indeed cop that award.

    Best Film? Well, the Brits would be less apt to go with LINCOLN even if it had done better with teh US guild, methinks.

    ARGO is probably the smart choice, but I would give THE LIFE OF PI a fair chance for an upset. I’d be delighted is that came to pass.

    All in all, terrific predictions as usual.

  9. danemychal
    February 8, 2013

    There most certainly was a SAG in 1985 — just no awards put on by them.

    I agree with a lot of your picks, Sasha. But I think the Brits will appreciate Kushner’s script for its elegance, even though it recalls the old Ethan Allen dig about them being frightened by George Washington! So I think Lincoln wins Actor and Screenplay while Argo wins Pic and Director.

  10. steve50
    February 8, 2013

    I don’t have a clue how the BAFTAs will go this year. They used to make some interesting choices, but last year looked as if they got the memo as everyone else.

    I’d like to think they’ll mix it up, but Argo is probaby the safest bet. At this point, I would be happy with anything else (almost).

  11. Astarisborn
    February 8, 2013

    I hope there is a “oh, come on now backlash” and deservedly, Ang Lee wins Best Director.

  12. danemychal
    February 8, 2013

    PS – Watch out for Chastain and ZDT at the BAFTAs.

  13. Sasha Stone
    February 8, 2013

    That’s right! Well okay but even if you use Globe only that’s still the first time you’ll see no match-up.

  14. McGregor
    February 8, 2013

    I have this feeling that Javier Bardem might walk away with the supporting – they’ll want to reward SKYFALL somehow, right?…and none of the others are exactly poised to win.

  15. The J Viewer
    February 8, 2013

    Compared to the American voting bodies, (BAFTA) they resemble a stranger-island to me. To be clear, I am not implying anything negative about BAFTA as a whole – just a different milieu.

    For the time being, in my opinion, Life of Pi, as well as its director Ang Lee, remains on top for my prediction – Pi for BP BAFTA, and Lee BD (or at least either of them).

    And to me, Emmanuelle Riva is most likely to be a safest bet re BAFTA. THEREFORE, if Lawrence should win in the end, then she is the one to lose come Oscar night methinks.

  16. Robert
    February 8, 2013

    This should be an Argo-belated night at BAFTA. Best Actress will be hard, though. Since SLP only got 3 nominations, I do not feel they are too fond of that movie. Out of this category, Chastain’s movie got the most noms, but I have a hard time thinking they will not reward Riva. However, based on my research, no actress has won Best Actress at BAFTA over the past 12 years or so without having been at least nominated for the SAG or Globe

  17. February 8, 2013

    I think that I am the only person who proudly stands by the belief (however far fetched) that Joaquin Phoenix can win Best Actor.

    I’m not crazy, no I’m not.

  18. comedywontwin
    February 8, 2013

    Sasha, you got best actress wrong…Riva has no chance for whatsoever…..it’s between JLaw and Chastain here, however for Oscar night, drama wins and Chastain wins the Oscar for a real dramatic lead role.

  19. jorge
    February 8, 2013

    RIVAAAAAA

  20. Rebel
    February 8, 2013

    Riva. Other categories, I don’t really care anymore (well, except Amour wins in those categories)

  21. February 8, 2013

    Riva has no chance? No chance she has no chance, she’s one of the favourites for both this and Oscar. Don’t make silly sweeping statements like that.

  22. February 8, 2013

    I was late adding my picks but I’m so proud of how they make me feel I’ll post them above and below to make sure everybody sees how good this looks.

    BEST FILM
    • Life of Pi

    OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
    • Anna Karenina

    LEADING ACTOR
    • Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

    LEADING ACTRESS
    • Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    • Sally Field – Lincoln

    DIRECTOR
    • Ang Lee – Life of Pi

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    • Amour – Michael Haneke

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    • Lincoln – Tony Kushner

    OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
    • Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) – The Imposter

    ANIMATED FILM
    • Frankenweenie

    DOCUMENTARY
    • The Imposter

    FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
    • Amour

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    • Life of Pi

    COSTUME DESIGN
    • Anna Karenina

    EDITING
    • Argo

    MAKE UP AND HAIR
    • Anna Karenina

    ORIGINAL MUSIC
    • Life of Pi

    PRODUCTION DESIGN
    • Life of Pi

    SOUND
    • Life of Pi

    SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
    • Life of Pi

    RISING STAR (public vote)
    • Suraj Sharma

  23. February 8, 2013

    You’ve been mentioning cats a lot lately. :)

    Anyhoo, if they did something stupid like picking Ben Affleck for Best Actor, and I wouldn’t put it past them, then I think it’d be time to invade.

    How do we watch this again? I know years ago BBC America used to show it live (unannounced) and then replay it edited at 8pm. But for a few years it’s just been on tape at 8pm. But I mean there was a red carpet online last year that I missed and I then I forgot how we got the results. I’d love to watch a livestream so that I could watch the Grammys without having to flip channels.

  24. keifer
    February 8, 2013

    I wouldn’t count out Skyfall in a few of these categories. It’s already the most commercially successful British film ever made.

    I think Javier Bardem was robbed of an Oscar nomination for BSA. So here’s hoping BAFTA rewards Bardem for one of the most memorable performances of the year. Bardem really does deserve this. BAFTA, show some balls, okay?

  25. Jason Travis
    February 8, 2013

    I am reading a lot of comments saying that Drama wins at the Oscars in the acting races. Not always- and as much as I don’t want to hear her name called, there’s no denying the amount of golden eggs on Jennifer Lawrence’s plate right now. She has so many things going for her, and the biggest one of all is the SAG award. They too had an opportunity to vote for a Dramatic lead role, but went for the darker comedy instead. And despite Lawrence being in a so-called “comedy”, her performance alone can still be classified as dramatic acting. Look at Helen Hunt and Gwyneth Paltrow- both ladies were in lighter films that were classified Comedies, but both gave serious performances, especially the former- Hunt had so many money scenes in As Good as It Gets that I’m surprised more people were shocked she won- let’s start with the “If you ever mention my son again, you will not be able to eat here. Do you understand me? You crazy fuck!” Wow- just wow- I loved it. That is not comedy. She’s dealing with a sick son and a wacko customer insulting him.

    Lawrence deals with a lot more then just looking cute in a dance competition. And again, she is the ideal LEAD role in the film and has a lot of ME moments- Oscar voters love going for the most scenery chewing— I can only remember two more sublte roles that won- Frances McDormand in Fargo and Helen Mirren in The Queen, and both of those women were still iconic and memorable to this day. Chastain did a fine job, but was she given MONEY scenes- scenes that stand out for a best actress winner? I have to think about that one.

    All that being said, Riva should win this, she is beyond deserving.

  26. Zach
    February 8, 2013

    Ryan’s picks are cray-cray.

    Of course, Original Screenplay and Lead Actress are the big ones to watch at BAFTA. And maybe Picture and Director, particularly if they DON’T go to Argo.

    I’m also guessing Waltz will best Jones, in which case since Django screeners weren’t sent to SAG in time, I wonder if Waltz really does have a chance to upset. Anyone else takes it and it’s still probably Jones’s to lose, with De Niro as the upset…unless voters are feeling to desperate to award Argo where they can and somehow Arkin takes both BAFTA and Oscar. But I think pigs would sooner fly.

  27. February 8, 2013

    Antoinette, I’m not sure how it’ll be broadcasted this year. Here in the UK, the edited version of the show will be shown between 9pm and 11pm GMT, so you might be able to catch a stream of that. It won’t be live but at least it’ll be on before the Grammys, right?

  28. Daveylow
    February 8, 2013

    Rooting for Life of Pi for BP and director. Anna Karenima flopped in the UK so I’m thinking Les Miserables will get Best British film.

  29. Daveylow
    February 8, 2013

    If Ben Affleck gets best actor, look for Ang Lee to win for director. Lee has won two BAFTAs and I see him getting the Fellowship prize in the future.

  30. JP
    February 8, 2013

    If Lincoln loses WGA… I’m really worried about that. In the past decades, 1 film won without directing nomination but none without any other win in any other award. Braveheart could be considered the exception because it won WGA thanks to the ineligibility of The Usual Suspects but… it’s still as rare as a BP win without directing nod.

    Unfortunatelly Lincoln is almost beaten.

  31. KT
    February 8, 2013

    Two Questions:
    1. Can DDL actually lose Best Actor? Though I know it’s unlikely, but could we actually see Hugh Jackman emerge as an alternate here? If support for Lincoln isn’t as strong at BAFTA, maybe just maybe this is a possibility. Anyone have an opinion?

    2. Will there be any love for Zero Dark Thirty?? Could the Brits actually see this as the great movie it is, and not be dissuaded by the controversy in the U.S.? I’d love to see Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director, even if Ben Affleck takes picture with Argo. I know Director-Picture splits are much more likely here than the Oscars. Just remember the surprising win of David Fincher here two years ago.

    Some thoughts:
    - Watch Best Supporting Actor. The winner can have strong support at the Oscars, and could possibly spoil the Tommy Lee Jones win. Though De Niro not being here makes predicting harder…
    - Watch Screenplays: An Argo win is not good for Tony Kushner in two weeks. I’m particularly interested in who will take Original…I’d love to see Mark Boal win. But it could be Tarantino, it could be Haneke. Tough tough category, though it could lend insight for Oscars.
    - FINALLY, Best Actress: If Jennifer Lawrence wins (least likely for BAFTAs), Best Actress is OVER, Lawrence will win. If Emmanuelle Riva wins, Lawrence will still likely win, though the spoiler would be Riva and Jessica Chastain would be OUT. And if Chastain wins, then it’s going to be very close at the Oscars, likely leaning toward Chastain and Riva would not have a chance.

  32. February 8, 2013

    Daniel Day-Lewis is British. Not likely they pass up an opportunity to honour him.

  33. Jason Travis
    February 8, 2013

    You have to admit Argo is a hot screenplay though. I understand Lincoln’s script is being studied already and Kushner has a gorgeous ear for dialogue, but Argo is also well mounted, paced and has a fresh appeal to it. It’s just a very competitive year for films in general, screenplay being no exception. I want Kushner to win badly, but I accept the fact that Terrio’s script is strong. Plus again, Kushner has only done one other film- Munich- and that may trigger voters to go elsewhere if they want to reward one of ‘their own’.

  34. Marie
    February 8, 2013

    To Paddy,

    DDL, although British, has consistently lost in British critics groups this year. I have a feeling there might be an upset here. Also, he pissed off the brits a bit by slamming on Downton Abby (basically saying England’s obsession with class structure, as exemplified by that show, is the reason he left England.) However, I think he has an historical tie to BAFTA…there is an award named off his grandfather, studio head, Michael Balcon. And he won the Britianna Award this year..(not for his performance, just a lifetime award). SO, its a little up in the air this year.

  35. Sammy
    February 8, 2013

    One thing is certain. Riva wins Best Actress.

    I also hope Joaquin Phoenix will spring a surprise BAFTA win. This is possible.

  36. Sasha Stone
    February 8, 2013

    You have to admit Argo is a hot screenplay though. I understand Lincoln’s script is being studied already and Kushner has a gorgeous ear for dialogue, but Argo is also well mounted, paced and has a fresh appeal to it. It’s just a very competitive year for films in general, screenplay being no exception. I want Kushner to win badly, but I accept the fact that Terrio’s script is strong. Plus again, Kushner has only done one other film- Munich- and that may trigger voters to go elsewhere if they want to reward one of ‘their own’.

    Yeah, I agree with this. Terrio’s script is screenplay 101 good. It does everything “right” the way Hollywood types like to see movies written and made, I know because everyone in LA is always writing screenplays. It doesn’t do anything exceptional or go very deep and the characters are all male, which bothers me. Kushner’s is the bigger and greater accomplishment. I think of it kind of like: Argo is Norman Rockwell and Lincoln is Picasso. Both great in different ways. Argo’s is the more generally appealing script. You don’t have to be smart, particularly, to get it and you don’t have to do any work to get it. You just get it. And that is what Oscar winners are built on. Maybe Picasso is the wrong painter. Maybe Klimt is better.

  37. Sammy
    February 8, 2013

    No way Kushner can win over Terrio’s script. Argo is the heavyweight here.

  38. phantom
    February 8, 2013

    I think Riva will take this and then it will be down to her and Lawrence and in the end Riva will win the Oscar. If Chastain wins, Riva is out and we are back to the Chastain-Lawrence battle.

    I also think Hugh Jackman could be the shocker of the night. I don’t doubt Day-Lewis WILL win the Oscar, but I don’t know how much BAFTA-people can warm up to ‘one of them’ playing an American icon. ‘One of them’ playing a British icon (Helen Mirren, Colin Firth), sure, ‘NOT one of them’ playing a British icon (Meryl Streep), sure, but I don’t think there is precedent for ‘one of them’ playing an American icon…granted, Daniel Day-Lewis could make that precedent…easily.

  39. Matt
    February 8, 2013

    Picture/Director: I think it will be a Life of Pi/Argo split.

    British Pic: Look out for Best Exotic as a potential spoiler

    Technicals: I can see Skyfall picking up a number of these, including Sound, Editing and possibly Cinematography

  40. February 8, 2013

    Daniel Day-Lewis has only lost one British critics group award this season, the London Critics’ Circle. It’s the only significant British film critics organisation. Also, plenty of Brits have expressed their dislike of Downton Abbey and few if any have kicked up a storm about it. He’s as loved here in the UK as he is in the US.

  41. Jason Travis
    February 8, 2013

    Daniel Day-Lewis losing would be an immense injustice and upset; regardless if he’s playing an American icon, I don’t think Hugh Jackman would be a pleasant alternative. Phoneix maybe, but again- Lewis’s performance is so above the rest of the competition, I can’t see that many voters not going his way; it’s not like the Lawrence vs Chastain race where there’s close magnitude between the two- Lewis is mountains above his— just like Anne Hathaway right? It would be great if Sally Field could win, but it seems the makings of an upset aren’t in the cards.

  42. February 8, 2013

    I just felt I had to post this somewhere. It’s maybe the best and finniest of all the LES MIZ parodies.

    This one is a Japanese ROK Air Force Parody, apparently just recently posted:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZunEARBb6I&feature=share

  43. Sammy
    February 8, 2013

    If Tom Hooper had had a BD nod here, I would have suggested Les Miz would win BP. I think Argo is the only viable choice here for best film considering the love for Ben Affleck.

  44. Daveylow
    February 8, 2013

    There was a lot of love for George Clooney the year of Goodbye and Good Luck at BAFTA and he didn’t win anything.

  45. Rob Y.
    February 8, 2013

    I see Skyfall winning for Best British Film—reward a quintessential British film over a film about the French.

  46. Daveylow
    February 8, 2013

    BAFTAs will air on BBC America in the USA at 8 pm and 11 pm ET on Sunday.

  47. Antoinette
    February 8, 2013

    It won’t be live but at least it’ll be on before the Grammys, right?

    If there’s a stream. But I don’t remember there being one last year. :(

    You’ll just have to tell us what happens. :D

  48. Mattoc
    February 8, 2013

    I hadn’t realized The Hunt was nom’d for the ‘ I can’t believe it’s not English’ category.
    In any case, no Mads for BA?! How damaged are these people?

  49. Jason Travis
    February 8, 2013

    Anyone know the link to Sasha’s Predict the BAFTA contest? I tried clicking on the icon on the main page and nothing shows up- thanks!

  50. KT
    February 8, 2013

    Sasha: Something interesting to ruminate on–according to Anne Thompson, it was actually ANG LEE who got the loudest, most enthusiastic applause at the Oscar nominees luncheon. Very interesting, since the Scott Feinberg Hollywood Reporter article strangely failed to mention him AT ALL. Anne said that actors were approaching Lee, expressing interest in working with him. I bet this is part of the reason why she switched her prediction from Spielberg back to Lee. Though applause isn’t everything (we all know that), interesting she also mentioned the reaction to Jennifer Lawrence’s name was quite lukewarm….

    Perhaps Ang Lee can garner the support across all branches–you know the techies will be slamdunk voting him for Director. He may very well win the Best Director Oscar, and maybe BAFTA will be the first to indicate the wide industry support for Lee. I’d love to see him win on Sunday with Bigelow likely out of the running and Affleck likely to pick up Best Picture.

  51. Jason Travis
    February 8, 2013

    @Mattoc: thanks.

  52. Andrew
    February 8, 2013

    Would love to see Phoenix win but it ain’t gonna happen.

    Would love a best actress shake up- go Riva !!

    You ask Who cares? We all do!! You say it’s sad that BAFTA leans towards Oscar? It has for years !

    I have been posting here for years, and I do not come on here to hate on you. What I did was try to point out that your Lincoln love was poisoning your coverage here and making Argo seem like the evil bad guy.

  53. Jerry
    February 8, 2013

    Best film: Argo
    British film: Skyfall
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva
    Supporting actor: Javier Bardem
    Supporting actress: Anne Hathaway
    Director: Ben Affleck
    Original screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
    Adapted screenplay: Argo
    Animated film: Brave
    Documentary: West of Memphis
    Film not in English: Amour
    Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Costume: Anna Karenina
    Editing: Argo
    Makeup: Anna Karenina
    Original music: Skyfall
    Production design: Anna Karenina
    Sound: Les Miserables
    Special Effects: Life of Pi

  54. Odee
    February 8, 2013

    Picture: Lincoln
    Direction: Argo
    Actor: Phoenix (Hey, he won the London Critics Award)
    Actress: Riva
    Supporting Actor: Hoffman
    Supporting Actress: Field

  55. steve50
    February 8, 2013

    Ryan: I wish you had a ballot – no, make that – I wish you had the ONLY ballot for the BAFTAs. It is exactly how I would vote.

  56. daveinprogress
    February 8, 2013

    I’ll have some of what Ryan’s having! I would be a happy chappy if Pi won BP/BD and Hoffman takes BSA.

    Alas, Sasha I’m with you on predix right now for BAFTA. They showed good taste awarding Fincher over Hooper, but they have made some odd choices too, so i also think the Argo train chuggs along blowing its whistle all the way.
    Affleck’s Actor nod is most telling. I did have a belly laugh at your declaration: “You have no idea how much I want to predict Ben Affleck for this.”

    Whatever happens at BAFTA this site will be filled with reactions, so i hope everyone will be strapped in and down for some turbulence. But it should be fun too with the elegant Monsieur Fry back in the driver’s seat. Even the most pedestrian introduction sounds poetic and whimsical from his lips.

    I think we may have some more twists and turns coming out of this event.

  57. February 8, 2013

    Lol I know, they nominated Ben Affleck over Mads Mikkelsen. Complete desperation from BAFTA. Perhaps we’ll see an Argo sweep, lest they make any vaguely non-influential decisions.

  58. PaulH
    February 8, 2013

    Riva’s run ends tomorrow afternoon. Bank it. And she won’t even show up for this.

    My predictions:

    BEST FILM: Les Miserables
    OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM: Skyfall
    LEADING ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    LEADING ACTRESS: Riva (alreay pre-determined)
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem – Skyfall
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Dame Judi Dench – Skyfall
    DIRECTOR: Ben Affleck – Argo
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln – Tony Kushner
    ANIMATED FILM: Paranorman
    DOCUMENTARY: Searching for Sugarman
    FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: Amour
    CINEMATOGRAPHY: Skyfall
    COSTUME DESIGN: Anna Karenina
    EDITING: Skyfall
    MAKEUP/HAIR: Les Miserables
    ORIGINAL MUSIC: None of the above
    PRODUCTION DESIGN: Skyfall
    SOUND: Les Miserables
    SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS: Marvel Avengers Assemble

  59. PaulH
    February 8, 2013

    “I think Riva will take this and then it will be down to her and Lawrence and in the end Riva will win the Oscar. If Chastain wins, Riva is out and we are back to the Chastain-Lawrence battle.”

    Was this message sent from the River Denial? Because that ship has already sailed. Actress is settled. There is no battle. Lawrence’s name will be in that particular envelope. Period, end of sentence. The French had their moment with La Vie En Rose. ZDT is far too damaged and tainted.

  60. Scott
    February 8, 2013

    Ryan I like that you picked Sally Field to win. I feel it, and I can’t deny the fact that I like it, right now, I like it!

  61. PaulH
    February 8, 2013

    I’d like to get a jump on the NGNG pool:

    1. Lawrence, Actress
    2. Les Miz, Picture
    3. Avengers, VFX (maybe the Brits will be a little more reasonable and have an attack of sanity instead of being hypnotized by the Life of Pi Aura.)

  62. F.
    February 8, 2013

    Is there still people predicting Sally Field? This is really funny hahahaha

  63. phantom
    February 8, 2013

    PaulH

    IF Lawrence wins Bafta, now THEN it is a done deal. But considering they didn’t nominate SLP in Picture OR Director, that is clearly a BIG if, especially because they LOVED Zero Dark Thirty and Amour. Until then, Oscar-wise we have a frontrunner (Lawrence), a close runner-up (Chastain) and a remarkably viable dark horse (Riva).

    The only one in denial is you. Well, maybe Winston and you. You two think Lawrence is entitled to this Oscar. She isn’t. She could win, but it won’t be the easy ride you two would like to think so, nor should it be. And IF she wins, you should be at least aware of the fact that though an excellent performance, she won LEAD (!) for playing a remarkably Oscar-friendly (=hot, endearingly neurotic with a few flashy crazycryingscreaming Oscar scenes) ‘supporting wife’ character in THE crowdpleaser of the year backed by Oscar magician Harvey Weinstein. The fact that her category hasn’t been a clean sweep – and make no mistake, it hasn’t – is an accomplishment already ESPECIALLY because her competition delivered expertly executed, brilliant performances playing astonishingly strong female characters, performances that were also spectacularly NOT Oscar-friendly : a no nonsense, emotionally crippled, not at all sympathetic workaholic; two actresses acting from the neck up, one of them in a genre film, the other in foreign language; and a child performance. None of the 4 have the luxury of flashy acting opportunities like losing it big time in a diner OR with teary eyes just fall into the arms of her big strong male love interest.

    Bottom line : Everything backs Lawrence for the win…that’s exactly why it is so strange that Chastain and Riva still managed to be considered viable picks. IF they both lose BAFTA to Lawrence, now THEN it is a done deal, until then it is a two horse race the very least.

  64. phantom
    February 8, 2013

    PaulH

    So Jennifer Lawrence can’t lose the Oscar yet she is so far away from BAFTA in your opinion, that she qualifies for NGNG-status ? Hilarious.

  65. Mac
    February 8, 2013

    Sasha, who do you think deserves Best Director?

    Ang Lee would be my choice, for directing a beautiful, one-of-a-kind film that was technically challenging on so many levels.

    Many people believe that Best Director and Best Picture go hand-in-hand, but if ever there were a year in which this may not be the case, an Ang Lee/Argo win would be justified (or better yet, Ang Lee/Lincoln).

  66. Astarisborn
    February 8, 2013

    @steve50
    “Ryan: I wish you had a ballot – no, make that – I wish you had the ONLY ballot for the BAFTAs. It is exactly how I would vote.”

    ^ this x 100. Agree with Ryan too.

  67. Ap
    February 8, 2013

    Hey , is there a way to watch the baftas online??
    Thanks

  68. February 8, 2013

    Thanks, you guys.

    Someday somebody can explain to me the difference between ‘predictions’ and ‘pipedreams.’ But not today. Not today or any other day this month.

  69. steve50
    February 8, 2013

    Stick with the pipedreams – reality is boring and will rear its head again soon enough.

  70. Atze
    February 8, 2013

    Lawrence will win the Bafta. She’s more of a frontrunner than some people like to admit, and I can’t believe there are still people out there who predict anyone else but Hathaway in Supporting Actress. Like WTF!?!

  71. daveinprogress
    February 8, 2013

    I’m not convinced that Jennifer Lawrence will win BAFTA. The only nominee who need not prepare anything is the Dame. How she got there and Anthony Hopkins did not get a corresponding Actor nod is baffling. Lead Actor must be considerably stronger than Lead Actress.

    I feel pretty certain that Lawrence will win the Oscar, but BAFTA? Chastain or Riva are better bets. Even if Emmanuelle wins, i don’t think it helps clarify the Oscar race. But we’ll see…..

  72. February 8, 2013

    It should be a Skyfall sweep. It’s a great, great film, it’s Bond’s 50th adversary and not one but TWO extremely deserving noms for acting. Plus Cinematography and British Film. Now that Les Miserables is a longshot at Oscar, they might support and celebrate 007 legacy.

    I wonder what would have happened if BAFTAs would have multinominated Deathly Hallows Part 2. But Skyfall makes sense as a stand alone film, something HP didn’t. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win British Film, Supporting Actor and Cinematography. At the very least, British Film and Cinematography, should be a given… I will be wrong, I know.

  73. PaulH
    February 8, 2013

    Perfectly logical, Phantom that I list J-Law as a NGNG, She’s got enough distance between herself and the field that she can lose one at this point and still be the overwhelming choice. She’s endearing herself to America with her late night talk show appearances. Only a sympathy vote for Riva due to her age, or a protest vote against those who spoke ill of ZDT ( eff these haters, we’ll give it to Chastain) can do Lawrence in at this stage. If that happens, it’ll be one more time that Oscar screwed up. I don’t think they’d be that num-nutty to pull that. Not this year. Not when things are so clear.

  74. Robert A.
    February 8, 2013

    “Only a sympathy vote for Riva due to her age, or a protest vote against those who spoke ill of ZDT ( eff these haters, we’ll give it to Chastain) can do Lawrence in at this stage.”

    Unless, of course, the Academy actually watches Amour and votes for Riva because she gave the best performance of the five nominees.

    PaulH, I’m sure you realize that SLP and Lawrence are backed by Harvey Weinstein. What happened to your “Harvey Is The Devil And Must Be Stopped At All Costs” mantra?

  75. Scott
    February 8, 2013

    Sally Field is still being talked about because she gave a more complex, layered performance in a better film.

  76. Manny
    February 8, 2013

    I agree with your assessment of the Jennifer Lawrence Best Actress situation Paul H.

  77. PaulinJapan
    February 8, 2013

    Phantoms assessment of Best Actress is spot on. There is still plenty of life in that race, and more than in other categories, BAFTA will reveal plenty about where the Oscar will go.

    Personally, I think Chastain will win BAFTA, and have a good chance for the Oscar. Riva won’t win anything. You’d think she was a strong favorite they way people are picking her, but you can get 7/1 odds on Riva picking up the BAFTA, and that is about right.

    Argo is strong favorite for Best Pic, and Director. Those not recognizing that fact are deluding themselves.

  78. Lynne
    February 8, 2013

    Thank goodness, I have BBC! I’ll be recording The Grammy’s and watching The BAFTAS LIVE!

  79. PaulH
    February 8, 2013

    Robert, three reasons;

    1. SLP was filmed in suburban Philadelphia; and I’m a Philly homer;
    2. Lawrence isn’t just riding this massive wave for SLP; its IMO also for her great (award-winning) turn in The Hunger Games (MTVMA, People’s Choice);
    3. Sometimes once a decade, Harvey hitches his wagons to a legit quality talent.

    And 4. If the sympathy vote carries the night, 99.9% of viewers will have their jaw collectively drop, and then say “Who the eff is Emmanuelle Riva?” And almost as many will likely say, ” why do I keep watching this show when they award people and movies I’ve never heard of?”

  80. Jack Traven II
    February 8, 2013

    Since I don’t get through to the contest here are my picks:

    Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
    Make-Up And Hair: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Animated Film: Brave
    Original Film Music: Skyfall
    Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Original Screenplay: Amour
    Costume Design: Anna Karenina
    Production Design: Anna Karenina
    Editing: Argo
    Sound: Skyfall
    Special Visual Effects: Life of Pi
    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
    Leading Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Leading Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    Film not in the English Language: Amour
    Oustanding British Film: Skyfall
    Film: Argo

  81. Pierre de Plume
    February 8, 2013

    Whatever happens at BAFTA this site will be filled with reactions, so i hope everyone will be strapped in and down for some turbulence.

    :)

    I don’t predict the BAFTAs because I don’t have a clue there. But I’ll be rooting for Emmanuelle Riva and would be pleased to see Skyfall win – I mean, it’s successful and well made across the board even if it does lean toward the commercial side of things.

  82. Nic V
    February 8, 2013

    I think DDL lives in England but is Irish.

  83. Cyrus
    February 8, 2013

    QUESTION

    DOES ANYONE KNOW IF WE CAN WATCH THE BAFTAS LIVE ON TV OR ON THE INTERNET?

    THANKS

    RIVA FOR THE WIN !!!!

  84. February 8, 2013

    Does anyone remember the night of Crtics Choice Awards? Did the CW air The Princess Bride just before the awards? Or was that before the SAG Awards?

    It was one of those two nights, yeah? So now I see BBC America is airing The Princess Bride just before the BAFTAs?

    Hathaway all the way, I guess. Is that the ploy?

  85. phantom
    February 8, 2013

    Paul H

    “Only a sympathy vote for Riva due to her age, or a protest vote against those who spoke ill of ZDT ( eff these haters, we’ll give it to Chastain) can do Lawrence in at this stage.”

    Suuure, because Lawrence’s performance is academically proven as THE best and if she loses it will be because they felt sorry for the old French lady OR the controversial leading lady. Riiight…and here I was thinking it is all subjective…

    P.S. Did you just bring the MTV Movie Awards and People’s Choice Awards into an Oscar conversation as worthy factors ? WOW…now I understand everything. It would be refreshing if you just admitted that you wouldn’t give a fuck about Lawrence’s Oscar campaign, had she not been a franchise star. I honestly hope Jessica Chastain will be cast in a James Cameron movie SOON, so then maybe you can appreciate her who she is : a truly remarkable actress.

  86. phantom
    February 8, 2013

    Ryan Adams

    Hathaway was four when they shot The Princess Bride, you mean The Princess Diaries, right ? :)

  87. SeattleMoviegoer
    February 9, 2013

    for those posting predictions in all categories…do you honestly think ANNA KARENINA is so well loved? enough to win all those design awards? it was the unusual design of ANNA that took one so far away from story. it drew so much attention to itself that the affair between Anna and Vronksy and their fates began to play second banana to that ever changing old theatre. i just don’t think the design served the story.

  88. February 9, 2013

    LES MISERABLES is a strong local favourite and the highest grossing of the Best Film nominees. It seems to resonate strong with UK audiences. I’ll stick my neck out and go for a LES MISERABLES Best Film – though the film doesn’t have a director or screenplay nomination.
    Day-Lewis is the nearest thing to a dead-cert for LINCOLN. A local boy too -being a Londoner born and bred – and 3 times past winner in the Best Actor category.
    Actress could go one of three ways, as could the supporting actor prize. Hathaway is everyone’s tip for Supporting Actress. Director could go any way too – Affleck, probably, but don’t rule out Ang Lee. Hope Best British Film is Skyfall, but this category has thrown uo some very surprise winners in the past (THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND, THIS IS ENGLAND, FISH TANK, for example).

  89. Edward
    February 9, 2013

    Everybody here hates Lawrence, I get it. But I just can’t understand so much love for Riva, her performance was boring and nothing new. Chastain was OK, however, there were just one or two scenes where she could shine and show her great acting.

    Lawrence won’t win the BAFTA, but right now she is my favourite for the Oscar.

  90. Julie
    February 9, 2013

    Don’t forget about Lawrence:
    The British Academy LOVES Hunger Games!
    “The Hunger Games” has WON (!!!) for best feature film in the BAFTA Children’s Awards, which honors all aspects of children’s entertainment (The four films nominated in the Feature Film category this year include BAFTA fellow Martin Scorsese’s Hugo and Disney’s The Muppets + The Hunger Games and Arthur Christmas)
    Winners are decided by the British Academy and NOT by the general public.
    So, maybe (I say “maybe”), in an indirect manner, the Academy will reward Jennifer for Silver Linings Playbook AND The Hunger Games.

  91. oscar
    February 9, 2013

    BEST FILM
    •Argo

    OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
    •Skyfall

    LEADING ACTOR
    •Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

    LEADING ACTRESS
    •Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    •Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    •Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

    DIRECTOR
    • Ang Lee – Life of Pi

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    •Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    •Silver Linings Playbook – David O Russell

    OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
    •Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) – The Imposter

    ANIMATED FILM
    •Frankenweenie

    DOCUMENTARY
    •Searching for Sugarman

    FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
    •Amour

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    •Skyfall

    COSTUME DESIGN
    •Lincoln

    EDITING
    •Zero Dark Thirty

    MAKE UP AND HAIR
    •The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

    ORIGINAL MUSIC
    •Lincoln

    PRODUCTION DESIGN
    •Lincoln

    SOUND
    •Life of Pi

    SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
    •Life of Pi

  92. February 9, 2013

    oops yes, Princess Diaries. Thanks phantom

  93. Pierre de Plume
    February 9, 2013

    Edward, not everyone here hates JLaw. I think she’s wonderful. Chastain is damned good, too, but I tend to agree with you about her performance in ZD30. This is due, I believe, to the nature of her character in that film, which isn’t that sympathetic. I also think sexism plays into our reactions. We’re accustomed to seeing men play roles where their job is the focus, but not women – unless they play a prostitute or something.

    You and I do part company, however, on the quality of Riva’s performance. It’s a difficult role to begin with, where the sparse dialogue demands acting prowess that brings internal action to the audience’s awareness. Riva uses physical business – a gesture here, a look there – very sparingly and effectively without our pitying her or getting the “icks” about the dire straits she’s in. To me it’s a brave and towering performance that makes me fall in love with her and breaks my heart.

  94. Manny
    February 9, 2013

    Jennifer Lawrence will further cement her status as the one to beat, when she wins tomorrow night.

  95. Linc4Jess
    February 9, 2013

    About the only reason or maybe one of the reason I wouldn’t mind if “Argo” won best picture is to maybe hear the presenter say….and the OSCAR goes to …ARGOfuckyourself.

  96. Jack
    February 9, 2013

    PICTURE: Argo
    DIRECTOR: Ben Affleck
    ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis
    ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz OR Philip Seymour Hoffman
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Django Unchained
    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo
    CINEMATOGRAPHY: Skyfall
    EDITING: Argo
    PRODUCTION DESIGN: Les Miserables
    COSTUME DESIGN: Les Miserables
    MAKE-UP: Les Miserables
    SCORE: Life of Pi
    BEST SOUND: Les Miserables
    VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
    BRITISH FILM: Les Miserables

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