120214Baftas_5815501

I have been all that good at predicting the BAFTAs. They are like herding cats in many ways, unless they have aligned themselves with Oscar, which happens on occasion, and especially has been recently since Oscar pushed the date back. Very little wiggle room.  A consensus vote tells us which films are getting the popular vote at  a given moment in time.  And that’s what we’re faced with now and it looks like Argo has that vote locked up.  At least, with the BAFTAs, but maybe the Oscars too – who knows. By this point I might even have to add, who cares.  The BAFTAs will likely be a day for Argo fans to celebrate because they nominated Ben Affleck in the acting category, which tells us they really liked the movie.

But this guy at the Guardian believes that the most nominations might mean something at the BAFTAs – it didn’t mean anything at the Globes, nor the Critics Choice and probably not at the Oscars either — and what a shame that is.  He keeps hope alive over there at the Guardian, even calling Lincoln “the favourite.” But alas.

The real question on many people’s minds is whether Emmanuelle Riva can pick up some buzz at the BAFTAs. Remember, she’s 85. Oscar campaigning is going to be very difficult for her. I suspect she is rather amused by the dog and pony that it is. You live that long and almost everything amuses you. It would be a funny screenplay idea to follow her around with all of the publicists trying to talk her into doing stuff to get the win.  Maybe it is a high honor to win an Oscar. Maybe, in the end, it might not be, not after all we know about them.

It is a little depressing to see these awards always lean towards Oscar.  I am sure the BAFTA could unhinge themselves from Oscar if they wanted to but you can’t get the same attention from the press or the public unless you’re part of the “contest.”   And so this is the house that Jack built.  And we live in it.

Let’s go through the categories one by one.

BEST FILM

  • Argo –Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
  • Les Miserables
  • Life of Pi, Ryan Adams
  • Lincoln
  • Zero Dark Thirty

Argo should handily win since it has all of the buzz right now. I have to stop predicting Lincoln to win because at this point it is no longer good for my heart to do so.  I have to force myself to say Argofuckyourself.  ARGO.  ARGO will win.  ARGO.  Alt. Life of Pi.

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

  • Anna Karenina
  • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
  • Les Miserables — Stone
  • Seven Psychopaths
  • Skyfall, Flores

LEADING ACTOR

You have no idea how much I want to predict Ben Affleck for this.

  • Ben Affleck – Argo
  • Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln –Flores, Adams, Stone
  • Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
  • Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

LEADING ACTRESS

Whatever wins here does get a bit of a bump.  I can tell you this much – if Emmanuelle Riva is called to the stage it will be a powerful moment indeed. If she is not there to accept the award (who could blame her) it might not.  I also think Chastain has a good shot here.  One thing about the Oscar for Best Actress, you have to go all the way back to 1985 to find a year when either the SAG or one of the two Globe winners (or both) did not also win the Oscar. That makes it down to Chastain vs. Lawrence. But how do you not award Riva?

  • Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty 
  • Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
  • Dame Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
  • Emmanuelle Riva – Amour <—Flores, Stone

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Alan Arkin – Argo
  • Javier Bardem – Skyfall
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
  • Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln 
  • Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained <–Flores, Stone

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Adams – The Master
  • Dame Judi Dench – Skyfall
  • Sally Field – Lincoln 
  • Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables <—Flores, Stone
  • Helen Hunt – The Sessions

DIRECTOR

I think Affleck will take it.  Then again, since he wasn’t nominated at the Oscars and they aren’t the DGA so they don’t have to “defend” their choice, it’s possible that the BAFTA might just pick someone else entirely for this, like Michael Haneke for Amour or Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained.  In the end, popularity rules the day and I think Affleck will collect another big win with Picture and Director here.  It will either signal a “oh, come on now” backlash or it will propel him towards an historic Oscar win.

  • Ben Affleck – Argo – Stone
  • Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
  • Michael Haneke – Amour-Flores
  • Ang Lee – Life of Pi
  • Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is a weird one. It could go to anyone.  But I suspect they really liked Django Unchained and since voters are now shying away from Zero Dark Thirty and since Boal just recently won for The Hurt Locker, I think they won’t be able to resist Tarantino. BUT Michael Haneke could win and may very well win the Oscar.

  • Amour – Michael Haneke–Flores 
  • Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino–Stone
  • The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
  • Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
  • Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

My heart is already shattered by the way this year has turned out. Black is white, white is black and I have honestly no idea what these voters will do. But all five of these are good so any winner here will work. Something tells me they won’t go for Lincoln because, well, it’s an American story.  A deep dive into a brilliant book, and one of the most beautifully written scripts I’ve ever read.  Tony Kushner can fucking write.  Even his press release is great.  But fuckitall, Argo has the buzz and it has “plug and play” international appeal and everyone gets the jokes. So Argo it is.   Beasts of the Southern Wild is a beautifully written piece, and like Argo belongs in the original screenplay category.  Both of them could win, hell, life of Pi could win.  Hell, Silver Linings could win. They all could win but only one has “buzzzzzzzzzzz.”

  • Argo – Chris Terrio –Stone
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
  • Life of Pi – David Magee
  • Lincoln – Tony Kushner-Flores
  • Silver Linings Playbook – David O Russell

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

  • James Bobin (director) – The Muppets
  • Dexter Fletcher (director/writer) and Danny King (writer) – Wild Bill
  • Tina Gharavi (director/writer) – I Am Nasrine
  • Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) – The Imposter -Stone
  • David Morris (director) and Jaqui Morris (director/producer) – McCullin

ANIMATED FILM

  • Brave
  • Frankenweenie <–Stone
  • Paranorman

DOCUMENTARY

  • The Imposter
  • Marley
  • McCullin
  • Searching for Sugarman – Flores, Stone
  • West of Memphis

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

  • Amour <–Flores, Stone
  • Headhunters
  • The Hunt
  • Rust and Bone
  • Untouchable

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Anna Karenina
  • Les Miserables
  • Life of Pi <–Stone
  • Lincoln
  • Skyfall

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Anna Karenina <–Flores, Stone
  • Great Expectations
  • Les Miserables
  • Lincoln
  • Snow White and the Huntsman

EDITING

  • Argo-Flores
  • Django Unchained
  • Life of Pi
  • Skyfall
  • Zero Dark Thirty <–Stone

MAKE UP AND HAIR

  • Anna Karenina
  • Hitchcock
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Les Miserables <–Flores, Stone
  • Lincoln

ORIGINAL MUSIC

  • Anna Karenina
  • Argo
  • Life of Pi <–Flores, Stone
  • Lincoln
  • Skyfall

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Anna Karenina <–Flores,Stone
  • Les Miserables
  • Life of Pi
  • Lincoln
  • Skyfall

SOUND

  • Django Unchained
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Les Miserables <–Flores, Stone
  • Life of Pi
  • Skyfall

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Life of Pi <–Flores, Stone
  • Marvel Avengers Assemble
  • Prometheus

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And here’s Ryan, somehow visualizing Life of Pi winning 7 BAFTA Awards.   And not feeling delusional at all about it.

BEST FILM
• Life of Pi

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
• Anna Karenina

LEADING ACTOR
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

LEADING ACTRESS
• Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Sally Field – Lincoln

DIRECTOR
• Ang Lee – Life of Pi

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Amour – Michael Haneke

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Lincoln – Tony Kushner

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
• Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) – The Imposter

ANIMATED FILM
• Frankenweenie

DOCUMENTARY
• The Imposter

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
• Amour

CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Life of Pi

COSTUME DESIGN
• Anna Karenina

EDITING
• Argo

MAKE UP AND HAIR
• Anna Karenina

ORIGINAL MUSIC
• Life of Pi

PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Life of Pi

SOUND
• Life of Pi

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
• Life of Pi

RISING STAR (public vote)
• Suraj Sharma