4,500 PGA members, 100,000 SAG members and 14,500 DGA members went ass over elbow for Argo.  It hardly seems likely that the WGA will do any differently. Funny how uniform this has all become. It didn’t used to be that way. But a consensus vote is a consensus vote and the voters have decided that Argo is the best picture of 2012.  It is no doubt a bittersweet success because no one will know for sure whether it was the movie or the perceived snub. But perhaps being able to look at those awards every year for the rest of his life will soothe the pain a bit.

Here is what we do know about the nominees.

*–Oscar nominated

Adapted Screenplay
* Tony Kushner, Lincoln: 
New York Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics, Boston Society of Film Critics, Broadcast Film Critics, Central Ohio Film Critics, Chicago Film Critics, San Francisco Film Critics
* Chris Terrio, Argo: Los Angeles Film Critics, Austin Film Critics, Florida Film Critics, Kansas City Film Critics, San Diego Film Critics, Southeastern Film Critics, Scripter

* David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook: National Board of Review, BAFTA, Washington DC Film Critics
* David Magee, Life of Pi
  Stephen Chbosky, Perks of Being a Wallflower

Lincoln is ahead in terms of prestigious critics awards. But who cares about that right?  Argo has pulled ahead with the Scripter in the general consensus and will be the winner this weekend when the Writers Guild holds its awards.  Lincoln is already the recipient of the Paul Selvin award, which was actually given to Lincoln before final voting for the WGA had closed, so it isn’t a consolation prize. Therefore it’s possible the WGA will and could still go Lincoln’s way but it’s probably Argo.   The industry has spoken and Oscar will likely follow suit.  We wish Chris Terrio well.  After all, Ben Affleck “stuck to the script” on Argo so if anyone should get credit for its success, well, shouldn’t Terrio?

Original Screenplay
Rian Johnson, Looper –
Austin Film Critics, Florida Film Critics, Las Vegas Film Critics, National Board of Review, Washington DC Film Critics
*Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty: Chicago Film Critics, San Francisco Film Critics, Vancouver Film Critics
*Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom, Online Film Critics, Phoenix Film Critics, Southeastern Film Critics
*John Gatins, Flight
  Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
 
Funnily enough, the film with the most critics awards is Looper but it isn’t nominated for the Oscar so the chances of it winning here are slim. Voters are like sheep, as we’re learning this year, and thus, if it ain’t Oscar nominated it ain’t winning. I think I’ve seen a non-Oscar nominee win once or twice at the WGA but it’s rare. So you’re really down to Zero Dark Thirty — shamed and brutalized by the press, Moonrise Kingdom and Flight.  You will see just effective the Zero Dark Thirty take-down was if Mark Boal doesn’t take this.  Either way, the winner still has to beat back Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained and Michael Haneke for Amour at the Oscars.

I’m not even going to speculate if Tony Kushner wins the WGA — he won’t. Argo will win.  That’s the consensus winner and it will collect all of the trophies this year.  The “Anything but Lincoln” campaign worked like gangbusters.  Note to self: punch self in face.