It’s looking increasingly likely that Ashley Judd is ready to make a run for the Kentucky Senate seat now held by reptilian Mitch McConnell, one the most despicable do-nothings ever to slither up Capitol Hill. Howard Fineman writes today at HuffPo:
Judd told one close ally that she plans to announce her run for the Democratic nomination for the 2014 race “around Derby” — meaning in early May when the Kentucky Derby brings national attention to Louisville and the Bluegrass State…
“I know she knows she has to declare soon,” said one source, a highly placed elected official who declined to be identified because he was discussing private plans. “She could always change her mind,” he added. “I changed my mind twice before I finally declared. But as of now it is a done deal.” She has discussed her plans, sources say, with former Gov. Wendell H. Ford, the 88-year-old dean of Kentucky Democrats, among others.
Judd was born in California but grew up in Kentucky and attended UK in Lexington. She lives in Nashville now and will need to move back to Lexington before November to meet residency requirements. An avid UK Wildcat basketball fan, Judd is a wildcat herself. Howard Fineman says when asked if she was tough enough to take on McConnell and the GOP national attack machine, Judd reportedly answered, “I have been raped twice, so I think I can handle Mitch McConnell.”
A champion of global women’s rights and an ardent environmentalist, Judd admittedly would start her campaign with more ties in Hollywood than in the old-fashioned courthouses of Kentucky’s myriad 120 (mostly rural) counties.
Some Democrats, here and in Washington, fear that Judd is just the kind of glamorous liberal the GOP loves to run against in Kentucky and across the country. Some are concerned that the GOP will make her candidacy a national cause.
But Judd is smart, feisty and charming, and probably can, as one local here put it, “out-Kentucky and out-country” the Louisville-based, owlishly professorial McConnell in a state where down-home, one-handshake-at-a-time style still matters…
The US Senate is losing 4 or 5 senior Democrats who have announced plans to retire at the end of their current terms, so it’s important to look for ways to restock the blue side of the chamber with fresh ideas. Mitch McConnell is in trouble and he knows it.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, whose leaders were cool to the high-risk but intriguing Judd candidacy, in recent days has taken new polls that show McConnell — never an overwhelming winner despite his lofty status — is more vulnerable to a Judd campaign than originally thought…
Judd is an ardent Obama supporter and progressive on most social issues. She recently announced the end of her marriage to her race-car driver husband, and racy pictures and video from her movie career are plentiful and easy to find on the Internet. She writes movingly and openly about the challenges she faces from her bipolar disorder.
But Judd was born to campaign. A fighter by nature, she has a quick wit and the ability to raise far more money – not to mention engender more free national and local media – than all of McConnell’s past Democratic foes put together.
She is fearless, and would not necessarily lose a bar fight if she got into one, which she is about to do.
I know what many are thinking. Just what we need, more movie stars in Washington D.C. ok, but Ashley Judd happens to be one of those movie stars who has a Master’s Degree in politic and public administration from Harvard.
She doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning that seat. Pro-choice, pro-gay rights Obama supporters do not win in states where “Uncommitted” got 42% of the vote against Obama in the Democratic primary. Harry Reid was even less popular than McConnell in 2010, and he survived.
As with Hollywood and the academy, I am really getting sick of the total Leftist bias of this site. Judd as senator? Well, why not? We have a do-nothing, vapid rock star in the White House.
She’ll fit right in.
Patrick, don’t underestimate how much she’s loved here. Seriously. Women especially love her.
Now I’m curious as to what part of Kentucky you’re from, Ryan. I grew up near Somerset and live in the Cincinnati suburbs. I really hope Ashley runs and wins, because McConnell needs to go yesterday.
Heather, Western Kentucky, Owensboro. Hometown of Florence Henderson, Johnny Depp, Tom Ewell.
Ryan, while not a native I have been to Kentucky many times with family there and across the river in Indiana. Tony points out some really good points particularly with regard to this being a mid-term election. McConnell’s 52% came in an election which was in many ways a Democratic wave election. I also agree with Tony’s assessment that McConnell has more to fear from his right than his left, which is not to say that Judd couldn’t prevail in the general.
But we’ve seen McConnell already making overtures to patch up his relationship with Paul. When Paul needed some folks to take over during his recent filibuster of the Brennan nomination, McConnell took a shift in support of the junior senator, who he did not support in the 2010 GOP primary.
And while race plays a role in why people didn’t vote for Obama, so did his position on coal and I’d be willing to bet that Ms. Judd is going to line up closer to Obama on that issue. That will hurt her in Kentucky coal country.
I’m not saying it won’t happen or that I wouldn’t welcome the change, but I just wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Ryan,
If we were talking about Steve Beshear’s chances running against Mitch McConnell, I’d say it was a tossup. However, against a liberal woman, McConnell will be fine. He should win by a similar margin to Rand Paul’s race.
For the record, I am not a west coaster passing judgement from afar. I’m from southwestern Pennsylvania about 25 miles from the West Virginia border.
As a Kentuckian myself, I would vote for a cinder block over turtle-man hybrid Mitch McConnell, and there are plenty here in the State who feel the same way. Personally I’ve never been a fan of Ashley Judd’s movies, but I like her politics. If she runs I’m 100% voting for her, and if I have time I might even campaign for her.
Also a pretty recent poll has Judd down only 9% on McConnell, which is pretty good considering she hasn’t even announced yet.
Lawrence O’Donnell, MSNBC tonight
Louisville Courier-Journal Poll
17% of Kentucky voters will vote for McConnell — no matter who runs against him
34% of Kentucky voters will vote against McConnell — no matter who runs against him
I’ve never been to Kentucky and don’t know much about it (except that my favorite president was born there and most of Uncle Tom’s Cabin was set there!), but my general impression is that a Southern Democrat can win a Southern state. Bill Clinton *and* Jimmy Carter won a number of Southern states because of their Southern bona fides. Being a Kentuckian, Ashley Judd should be able to speak to the concerns of Kentucky voters; being a woman, she can attract women voters, who often face issues very different from their male counterparts. This should be interesting!
Does anyone else agree that Mitch McConnell looks like the Paleman from Pan’s Labyrinth?
Geez, Ryan, my posts had a tinge of snark at best, certainly not enough to merit the heaping poured on me! I know that you’re from Kentucky, but most visitors to the site aren’t. You’re admirably passionate about your politics, misguided though they be. 🙂
Kentucky Dems are not the same as, say, California Dems. Bush d. Gore and Kerry. Clooney’s dad lost his Congressional race in Ky. McConnell is no more of a national laughingstock than Harry Reid (terrible poll numbers even in Nevada for YEARS). Pelosi is the biggest joke of them all. She’s rich and votes the way San Franciscans want, but she makes Bush sound like The Great Communicator.
I was smiling while I was typing, Tony. What I’m saying wouldn’t seem so snarky if you could see my eyes.
Guess I’ll need to activate auto-smiley mode.
😀
Honestly I don’t see the snark. When I’m busy with other things and try to dash off a reply fast, I’m just straightforward. I’m adamant but not mad.
None of the congresional leadership in either chamber is very popular, but make no mistake — as bad as Pelosi and Reid’s numbers undeniably may be, Boehner and McConnell’s rating are worse.
Images of Congressional Republicans on the decline
That’s a Jan 9 poll, Tony. If you have better and more recent information, you should quote it and link it.
There is only one person in the Senate who can be called Least Popular Senator in America, and Mitch McConnell wears that crown.
Ashley Judd is obviously a very intelligent, educated, accomplished woman who probably wouldn’t be a bad senator and if Hollywood was making a movie about an actress and Obama supporter winning over the conservative south, Judd’s probably your best casting. But that just doesn’t seem possible in real life. Obama lost Kentucky something like 60-40 last year and he lost it something like 60-40 in 2008. You can say Kentuckians are just a bunch of racists but the same thing happened to Kerry in 2004 and the same to Gore in 2000. Obama in 2008 ran about as strong as Gore did in 2000. Obama, the black man. Gore, the white Southern Democrat that Kentucky went for for about 150 years. Kentuckians might be racists but they are also fairly conservative and conservatives are not going to vote for a Hollywood liberal.
And… if race is really the issue (I see absolutely no evidence of this) then how exactly does that help Judd? McConnell is going to have a ridiculously easy time painting Judd as a lunatic Hollywood liberal willing to rubberstamp the Obama agenda. After the 2012 campaign? Hollywood is poison. Are the racists really looking to elect one of the group of liberals that helped fund and elect Obama just two years earlier? Probably not.
The electorate is a lot different than it was in 1992 and 1996, identification with the Democratic party is not nearly as strong, those who still identify are still very conservative compared to the national Democratic party, and Ashley Judd, love her or hate her, is not some universally appealing good old boy Southern Democratic governor like William Jefferson Clinton. McConnell ‘only’ won by six points back in 2008, but that was in a presidential election year with unprecedented Democratic turnout, a landslide victory on the top ticket, the most unpopular Republican president in 80 years presiding over the worst financial crisis in 80 years, and a moderate, populist businessman running on the Democratic ticket. Apples and oranges.
If the conservative electorate of Kentucky decides they don’t want Mitch McConnell in the Senate next year, they’re almost certainly going to go for his primary challenger. And if the Democrats really want to win Kentucky they might as well run someone with a chance. That means no ties to Hollywood, no ties to President Obama, and a moderate record on social issues.
Kentucky isn’t sceered of Hollywood folk. George Clooney, Jennifer Lawrence, Johnny Depp — Ketuckians are proud of them all.
Former Miss America Phyllis George was married to uber-Hollywood playboy Robert Evans before she married a future Kentucky Governor, a Democrat. He interrupted his honeymoon to announce he was running for Governor and that’s how Robert Evan’s ex-wife became First Lady of Kentucky for 4 years. When his term was over, Phyllis George co-hosted the CBS Morning Show for years.
You guys have apparently never been to Kentucky.
Kentucky electorate does not vote in lockstep. In the 1980s when Kentucky went for Reagan, the state had a Democratic Governor who was the divorcee of a notorious Hollywood playboy, and had two Democratic Senators — one of those Democratic Senators, Wendell Ford, was elected to 4 terms in the Senate. 4 days ago, Wendell Ford met with Bill Clinton in my hometown, about 4 miles from my apartment, and I could hear them talking about their plans for Ashley Judd.
I guess next you’re going to tell me Kentucky is less sophisticated now than it was 25 years ago. You’d be wrong.
Mitch McConnell is widely reviled, even among my Republican relatives. He’s done. He’s toast.
Yes, please, please, bring on a tea-party challenger to unseat McConnell. That worked out great 5 months ago — right across the river in Indiana — when six-term Republican Sen. Dick Lugar lost to a tea-party challenger. That stupid move to the right caused Republicans to lose an Indiana seat that had been held by an terrific moderate Republican for 36 years. A no-name Democrat was able to defeat the tea-party crackpot Richard Mourdock.
Please keep up the amateur speculation from 2000 miles away. For months Sasha and I had to bicker with delusional armchair pundits telling us Ohio was a lock for Romney. I got tired of arguing. Told them to come back and talk to us the day after the election, wait and see. I’m still waiting.
The saddest part of that video is the part where Karl Rove tries to diss Ashley Judd’s intelligence and ability to give speeches. I mean, Karl Rove himself dropped out of college, while Miss Judd got a degree from Harvard. Shows that old Republican geezers are so out of touch, that they don’t even know that there are many intelligent & beautiful females with genuine interest in politics. Sure she might have a difficult reputation, but considering all the crap she will face if she decides to run, it doesn’t hurt to be a tough cookie.
Ryan,
Although only 37% approve of McConnell, it doesn’t automatically follow that 63% will vote for Judd (or anyone else). I suspect that many of those who disapprove of him don’t think he’s been conservative enough.
Although only 37% approve of McConnell, it doesn’t automatically follow that 63% will vote for Judd
oh rilly? since nobody wins anything anywhere with 63% of the vote, you fail to shock me.
54% of Kentucky’s registered voters are female.
55% of registered voters in Kentucky are Democrats
Democrats — 1,646,927 (55.3 %)
Republicans — 1,122,447 (37.7 %)
Other — 210,635 (7.0 %)
McConnell’s approval rating amomg these groups?
Unpopular with Kentucky Democrats – 23% approval rating
Unpopular with Kentucky Independents — 33% approval
Barely even popular with Kentucky Republicans — 59%
(that is to say, 41% of KY Republicans who voted for him 6 yrs ago are sick of looking at him).
In the past 6 years, McConnell has become a national laughingstock.
No state wants a Senator who’s a laughingstock.
You guys from the West Coast do continue to educate me about my home state. I always learn a lot about Kentucky from people who’ve never been east of Lake Tahoe.
Yup, loved Bug, and she and Michael Shannon were brilliant in it.
Gotta love the Judd.
Hmmm if Kentucky isn’t Utah or Oklahoma…and it’s NOT Wyoming or Alaska…then what is it? Damn it all!
I hope she runs like hell!
Only in a Hollywood movie could Ashley Judd defeat Mitch McConnell. Judd is too liberal for Kentucky. (West Virginia’s Joe Manchin she ain’t.) Icing on the cake: 2014 is a non-presidential year. The electorate will resemble 2010 (Rand Paul’s win) much more than 2008 (McConnell’s tepid re-election) or 2012.
A primary challenge would be a bigger threat to McDonnell than Judd. But, if Rand Paul throws his support to McConnell, Mitch can rest easy.
Ryan, the political landscape has changed a lot since Clinton was elected. Clinton won a lot of states that are now just about impossible for Democrats. The governor of KY is a Democrat, but a moderate. Not a Hollywood liberal. I know Mc Connell is not that popular, but Judd would have maybe a 5-10% chance of beating him.
Ryan, the political landscape has changed a lot since Clinton was elected. Clinton won a lot of states that are now just about impossible for Democrats.
No. Clinton won a lot of states are just about impossible for a black man to win.
Here’s your political landscape changing, right here:
Congressional Republicans seeing big popularity drop
Considering that Romney got 61% of the vote last year in Kentucky and Rand Paul won by double digits, I’m guessing that Mitch is more concerned about a primary than any Democrat that would run against him.
Bob.
The governor of Kentucky is a Democrat.
Clinton won Kentucky in 1992 and 1996.
Ashley Judd has an advantage over Obama in rural Kentucky because she’s not black.
I was born in Kentucky. Grew up in Kentucky. Kentucky is not Utah or Oklahoma. Kentucky isn’t Alaska or Wyoming.
McConnell is in trouble. Trust me. McConnell won in 2008 with only 52% of the vote. Half the state loathes him.
Well, McConnell’s got to get through a tea party candidate before he gets to whatever Democrat wins. And that ain’t going to be no picnic. McConnell is as establishment as it gets and someone is going to paint him as someone who’s allowed taxes to be raised and stupid ass shit like that. If the right TPer comes along, he could easily lose.
Oh and Ahsley Judd was damn good in Billy Friedkin’s criminally underseen BUG. If she manages to make it a close race this will be one of the most interesting senatorial races in recent times. McConnel’s paws are holding tighttt onto that seat for reasons everyone knows (i.e. Committee on Appropriations)
OT: 30% in Rotten Tomatoes among top critics. I loved loved loved OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL. Summer movies are gonna bullets if the expect me to like them more than OZ. Tip of the hat to the great Sam Raimi and the truly gifted cast. Fuck.
Wow. Wouldn’t it be great if she could beat McConnell? How humiliated he and the RNC would be and what an excellent Democratic pickup it would be! (Which makes me think the likelihood of Ashley Judd winning is just too good a prospect to be true….)
I commend Ashley Judd. I actually took classes with her at Harvard when she was doing her Masters at the Kennedy School. She is really lovely to have in class and really enjoyed her insight. Loved her final project too that she presented in our human rights course.
Power to you Ashley!!
That’s a fantastic way to underline this post, Cyrus. Thank you.
Reality check: No “progressive” Obama supporting Democrat is winning Kentucky, despite what the DNC thinks.
More power to her! ANYTHING to get that turkey-head from appearing on the daily news. McConnell is probably the worst of the GOP bunch on the hill.
Whenever we bring up off topic news like this we try to find ways to connect politics to movies.
“Do you like to draw? Or maybe just sketch and doodle? If you can draw Mitch McConnell you’ll be accepted at the Art Instruction Draw Me! School.“