In competitive years for Best Actor surprising results have often emerged. When Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt was up against Daniel Day Lewis for Gangs of New York, Michael Caine for the Quiet American and Nicolas Cage for Adaptation, Adrien Brody won for The Pianist. In 2011, when George Clooney for The Descendants was up against Brad Pitt for Moneyball, Demian Bichir for A Better Life, and Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Jean DuJardin won for The Artist. When Ian McKellen for Gods and Monsters was up against Nick Nolte for Affliction, Tom Hanks for Saving Private Ryan, Edward Norton for American History X, Roberto Benigni won for Life is Beautiful.
Best Actor, or any acting category for that matter, can often be dominated by one name that wins everything before heading into the race. Daniel Day Lewis was that actor last year for Lincoln. It was clear he would win early on and he had no real competition. But this year it doesn’t seem so clear cut. There are so many formidable contenders who might not even get nominated. Just picking five names right now to get in seems impossible. Picking a winner, even more so.
Right now, there are six names for five slots and they are:
Chiwetel Ejiofor for his heart-wrenching turn in 12 Years a Slave also seems unbeatable.
Matthew McConaughey‘s heartbreaking portrayal of a homophobe turned AIDS activist in Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford in All is Lost, his best performance, capping off a multi-decade, successful career as both actor and director.
Tom Hanks is earning strong praise for his acting in Captain Phillips.
Bruce Dern stays in lead for Nebraska I don’t see how they pass him up for his portrayal as an aging man struggling with dementia. Forest Whitaker for The Butler, also one of the standouts of the year.
That’s six. Following quickly behind would be Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis and Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station.
Leo’s out for Wolf of Wall Street and so is Steve Carell, that only leaves Christian Bale for American Hustle to wait for. Some of my pals on Twitter think Forest Whitaker could be out because he’s won before. That might also count against Tom Hanks, who’s won twice. THe rest of the names have never won Oscars for acting. Bruce Dern’s only been nominated once, in supporting. Redford has been nominated once. Ejiofor and McConaughey haven’t ever been nominated. So that could somehow tip the balance in the race.
Finding a winner, though, is tough. There isn’t an Adrien Brody in the bunch because that would ordinarily be Ejiofor but since he’s being touted as the frontrunner he can’t be Brody. I suppose Dern would be the dark horse in that sense. There is no DuJardin, at least not yet, and there certainly is no Roberto Benigni. However the race turns it looks like one of those years where anything could happen.
Truly no matter if someone doesn’t be aware of then its up to other viewers
that they wll help, so here it occurs.
I thought James Cromwell’s performance in Still Mine was award-worthy. Was this movie not released in 2013? He should at least get some mention.
Best Actor:Dern,Ejiofor,Hanks,McConaughey,Redford.Plain and simple.
I think that is time that the Academy increses at least the other top seven categories ( director, lead actor and actrees, supporting actor and actress, and original and adapted screenplay ), to six nominies, like the Emmys. I mean, is obvius that the production of films is not the same of 60 or 70 years ago. And maybe, let the best movie category in six slots also. Just my opinion!
I agree with those six in the article, but I think you’re a bit keen to rule Leo out completely, unless you know something we don’t? Scorsese is apparently still working to get it out before the end of the year.
However there’s still 5 months to go, and when The Butler came out everyone was raving about Forest Whitaker, so who knows what the popular opinion will be when ballots are sent. As it stands right now it would probably be Hanks v Ejiofor.
I thought “The Butler” was a horrible movie, worse than “Lincoln” — same type of movie, too. Screams how IMPORTANT it is without actually being important. I do expect a Best Picture nomination and possible a Best Actor for Forrest Whitaker, who does well with limited material. (Oprah was the best thing in the movie, Terrence Howard probably the second-best thing.)
I haven’t seen what hasn’t played in L.A., but my choice for best male lead performances so far (not all are Oscar-eligible):
1. Gbenga Akinnagbe, Home:__
2. Shannon Harper, Welcome to Pine Hill
3. Mads Mikkelsen, The Hunt
4. James Cromwell, Still Mine
5. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
6. Ali Suliman, The Attack
7. Melvil Poupaud, Laurence Anyways
8. Miles Teller, The Spectacular Now
9. Gad Elmaleh, Le Capital
10. Sam Rockwell, A Single Shot
11. Paul Eenhoorn, This is Martin Bonner
12. Bobby Sommer, Museum Hours
13. Sean Penn, Gangster Squad
14. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
15. Kristoffers Konovalovs, Mother, I Love You
16. Matthew Jacobs, Boxing Day
17. Kim Soo-Hyun, Secretly, Greatly
18. Paul Rudd, Prince Avalanche
19. Pilou Asbaek, A Hijacking
20. Ernst Umhauer, In the House
21. Alexis Denisof, Much Ado About Nothing
22. Toby Jones, Berberian Sound Studio
23. Simon Pegg, The World’s End
24. Emile Hirsch, Prince Avalanche
25. Pio Marmai, Aliyah
My guess is Robert Redford ends up winning for “All is Lost.”
ALthough they haven’t been mentioned as contenders in this race, I worry that with a season incuding Clooney, Pitt and Damon in major films, Mcconaughey may get left out.
Hollywood has a hard-on for these guys.
Hugh Jackman is getting in….he DESERVES to be there!
I’m glad the Film Academy can even look at performances of veteran actors like Bruce Dern and Robert Redford and consider them for Oscar nominations too. Maybe even Harrison Ford for supporting actor.
Hugh Jackman was outstanding in Prisoners. It’s the best performance I’ve seen from him.
Could I ask a favor? Could everyone stop using initials for all these movies? It doesn’t take that long to type the full name (or a key word). I can’t keep up with all the WOWS, 12YAS, etc. Makes me have to stop and decipher.
It would probably provide clarity for a lot of folks…
Thanks for the consideration.
says Dr. Theopolis 😛
I try not to anyway. But I’m only one commenter. 🙂
Well I know he probably won’t make the cut due to so many amazing male performances this year, but Hugh Jackman deserves a nomination for Prisoners. I just got home from seeing it and I was blown away by his performance!
Right now i am thinking how J. Law would manage to pronounce Chiewel Ejiofor’s name when she opens the envelope:))) Probably she will put a cute twist on her mispronounciation and just enjoy the moment in a very a la J.Law style:)
There is an angle we didn’t explore : Twelve Years a Slave may be the big break Chiwetel Ejiofor so richly deserves but he has been around for a while and my bet is that all those years working with the likes of Steven Spielberg (Amistad), Stephen Frears (Dirty Pretty Things), Richard Curtis (Love Actually), Woody Allen (Melinda and Melinda), John Singleton (Four Brothers), Joss Whedon (Serenity), Spike Lee (Inside Man), Alfonso Cuarón (Children of Men), Ridley Scott (American Gangster) will pay off now and he will have great industry support throughout this season. The list of his high-profile former co-stars is just as impressive : Brad Pitt (Twelve Years a Slave), Angelina Jolie (Salt), Denzel Washington (American Gangster AND Inside Man), Russel Crowe (American Gangster), Helen Mirren, Al Pacino (Phil Spector), Clive Owen (Children of Men AND Inside Man), Jodie Foster (Inside Man), Don Cheadle (Talk to Me), Julianne Moore (Children of Men), Mark Wahlberg (Four Brothers), Will Ferrell (Melinda and Melinda), everyone famous and British (Love Actually), Anthony Hopkins, Morgan Freeman, Djimon Hounsou, Matthew McConaughey (Amistad).
Interesting Trivia : Will this year’s Best Actor race come down to two Amistad co-stars never before nominated for an Oscar ? Probably.
To your trivia question, are your referring to Ejiofor and McConaughey?
Yes.
Few things:
-I dont know why, but im not seeing both Redford and Dern in. Not both
-DiCaprio is still a huge mystery.
-Hanks may just get Supporting for Banks if that film os extremely Academy friendly.
-Will Weinstein have something up his sleeve for Idria Elba?
-I also wonder if Jackman (lead), Gyllenhaal (supporting) can get traction. Jack,an loves to work the circuit. Plus, Jackman was just nommed and history has shown that follow up noms for first timers (Les Mis last year) happens readily. And Gyllenhaal got great reviews, plus a firm Supporting campaign.
And in Supporting Actor, why not Ryan Gosling in The Place Beyond the Pines.
Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station should be there in the end. He was incredible in that role. So understated.
Best performance by an actor in an Bad/mediocre movie: colin Farrel “Dead Man Down”
Plus, I’m getting the vibe of this share of the wealth, right now…
12 years a slave Picture, Director, Supp. Actor (Fassbender)
Gravity Actress (Bullock)
The Butler Supp. Actres (Oprah)
All is Lost Actor (Redford)
Well, I do love Eijofor… he was Oscar worthy for Kinky Boots, already, and great on Dirty Pretty Things. Plus, he did a really good performance in 2012, getting the compulsory blockbuster-friendly status, Hollywood demands from its wannabe-stars.
Still, as much as Eijofor seems the frontrunner, Redford’s case is closer to Pacino’s “Scent of a Woman” or Newman’s “The Color of Money”. A sensation of “seriously, can you NOT vote for me?”. I still think it’s Redford to lose, then Eijofor.
Re 2005: Unlike most here, I do not consider BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN the greatest film of 2005, but I’m with y’all; out of the 5 nominees Heath Ledger deserved the win. Looking back, it was a year filled with remarkable performances. I don’t suspect it was as competitive in the Oscar race, but in reality, it was packed with unforgettable work.
Top 26 Lead Male Performers of 2005
1. Heath Ledger – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN / THE LORDS OF DOGTOWN
2. Tommy Lee Jones – THE THREE BURIALS OF MELQUIADES ESTRADA
3. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – MYSTERIOUS SKIN / BRICK
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman – CAPOTE
5. Romain Duris – THE BEAT THAT SKIPPED MY HEART
6. Sam Sheppard – DON’T COME KNOCKING
7. Jeremie Renier – THE CHILD
8. Jake Gyllenhaal – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN / JARHEAD
9. Michael Pitt – LAST DAYS
10. Marc-André Grondin – C.R.A.Z.Y.
11. Viggo Mortensen – A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
12. Lee Byung-hun – A BITTERSWEET LIFE
13. Joaquin Phoenix – WALK THE LINE
14. Daniel Auteuil – CACHE
15. Tony Leung Chiu-Wai – 2046
16. Mickey Rourke – SIN CITY
17. Cillian Murphy – BREAKFAST ON PLUTO
18. Eric Bana – MUNICH
19. David Strathairn – GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
20. Jeff Daniels – THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
21. Jonathan Rhys Meyers – MATCH POINT
22. Christian Bale – HARSH TIMES / BATMAN BEGINS (when he was really the Batman, whereas in THE DARK KNIGHT, he was all over the place with some hilarious choices we all know about –he bounced back in the 3rd one)
23. Nathan Fillon – SERENITY
24. Bill Murray – BROKEN FLOWERS
25. Steve Carell – THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN
26. Patrick Wilson – HARD CANDY
Worth mentioning is although, the BROKEBACK boys got all the citations that year, and deservedly so, a shout should go to James Marsdem and Jesse Bradford in the under-seen HEIGHTS from Mr. ARGO himself, Chris Terrio.
Most Underrated Performer: Orlando Bloom – KINGDOM OF HEAVEN/ELIZABETHTOWN
Wow! How do you remember all these things? Do you have files on your computer where you list, rank and archive every film/performance you’ve seen during the year? And then you have nice little folders for every year?
Haha…only for “top films” from each year, from there I easily picked off the performances. I admit, it’s a bit anal.
**the movie is called THE BEAT THAT MY HEART SKIPPED !! :/
Honestly, I think it’s great! I’m such an organizational disaster, that I can’t help admiring other people for simply marking $hit down, filing it and saving it for later use… That would actually save me a lot of trouble!
Speaking of 2005, did you watch The Chorus? It was France’s Best Foreign Language Film nominee this year. I guess the selection committe chose it over The Beat that my Heart Skipped bc it was a great popular success.
Speaking of Best Foreign Language Film Selections, Iran just announced they are selecting the Past, which means for the second year in a row a French language film, set and shot in France, starring French actors, produced by French producers and paid for with French taxpayers’ money will end up winning the Oscar for another country! Ooh the irony! France actually had the opportunity to select it, but they chose lame old Renoir instead, which probably won’t even make the shortlist…
No wait! The Chorus was actually the year before. In 2005/06, France chose WW1 movie Joyeux Noël (Merry Christmas) with Diane Krüger and Guillaume Canet. That was one boring watch imo.
That’s great news actually. The selection system is deeply fucked up, but it’s a small price to pay to have something good recognized. To have Iran take credit for a French production. Let’s just pretend it’s the filmmaker being recognized and not countries or film industries at large. I take it you’re French? Have you seen GRAND CENTRAL? I’ve imported THE PAST’s Blu-ray, but haven’t been able to see it because I can’t find English subtitles so I can do the shemozzle. By now someone has usually uploaded some. It’s just a matter of time.
And no, I haven’t seen THE CHORUS, but just checked out the trailer. It really looks like a commercial hit. Is there anyone who’s done better than Louis Malle in the French youths department? (GOODBYE, CHILDREN; MURMUR OF THE HEAR; ZAZIE IN THE METRO; LACOMBE, LUCIEN)
Filmmaker or not, it’s MY Tax Money! Where’s my credit? Where’s my f###ing Oscar? To answer your question, no I haven’t watched Grand Central, I rarely watch French flicks anyway, they’re way too boring… and apparently GC was destroyed by French critics. But I did watch animated film Ernest and Celestine. It was pretty good, not groundbreaking (it’s a real heartfelt children’s movie) but pretty good and not pretentious at all, which is unfortunately often an issue with French animation: most often it’s either commercial and stupid or artsy/intellectual and extremely self-aware
wait! I meant extremely self-conscious, apparently self-aware is a rather positive concept. no I can’t think of anyone following in Louis Malle’s footsteps off the top of my head. Well, François Ozon has tried to film teenage prostitution but he’s not particularly subtle or classy about it…
haven’t seen in a while but the chorus ain’t bad at all. otherwise there are good comedies: 1962’s war of the buttons, 1988’s Life is a long quiet river, 1982’s Santa Claus is a bastard and 2002’s 8 Women (not exactly ha ha comedy but pretty good and starring only women including Catherine Deneuve, Isabelle Huppert, Danielle Darrieu…)
I’ve only seen 8 WOMEN and didn’t enjoy it to be honest, I hate Francois Ozon and his work; the only film of his I’ve liked is WATER DROPS ON BURNING ROCKS which is bizarre and hilarious –most of the credit though has to go to the source material from playwright Rainer Werner Fassbinder. Was SANTA CLAUS IS A BASTARD an influence on BAD SANTA? lol WAR OF THE BUTTONS looks like a LORD OF THE FLIES for puppies which I can be totally down for. How the hell did we end up talking about this? #AwardsDailyRaging 🙂
My favorite performances by an actor this year so far (haven’t seen a bunch):
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Miles Teller – The Spectacular Now
Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Hugh Jackman – Prisoners
Dern is a lock for nominaton as he won the Cannes best actor award just like Dujardin two years ago and because of the Payne factor.
Other names have decent performances but their chances are pretty much depending on what their films will do in terms of BP + BD + Screenplay nominations. These are very important as it shows the Academy’s attitude towards a film.
Recent Best Actor winners and their films’s nominations performance:
Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln – BP+BD+BS
Jean Dujardin – The Artist – BP+BD+BS
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech – BP+BD+BS
Gonna go with:
Ejiofor
McConaughey
Dern
Redford
Phoenix
I know how silly this will sound even before I write it, but isnt there any chance Eugenio Derbez gets in and becomes this year´s Begnini?
Tye Sheridan – MUD and Ethan Hawke – BEFORE MIDNIGHT have to be in conversation! At least give them both a Golden Globe nomination (drama)!!. Both are oustanding in still my 2 top listed films of the year.
I was pretty move by Ethan performance. I’ve watched the 3 films of the serie, and I think that his perfomance in Before… it’s the best and show us how much he has grew as an actor.
If WOWS comes out and if DiCaprio does anything we haven’t seen before, I predict him for the WIN. Mark this entry: Sept. 29. I’ll be referring to it later.
The category looks to have four near-locks:
Ejiofor
McConaughey
AND
Dern
Redford
Do you see the deal there? New school vs. old school. Un-nominated versus 60s-70s veterans. Do you see how they’ll likely split votes and pave the way for a fifth person – just like in Sasha’s examples at the top?
Tom Hanks in Capt. Phillips is no lock, not with Saving Mr. Banks hanging around. The fifth slot could go to a lot of people, as mentioned, but if DiCaprio gets in there, think about it. He benefits from the perception that he should have been nominated much more than he already has…that if they don’t give it to him now, the nominators may snub him five more times in the future. He’s neither new-school nor old-school…like Clooney, Pitt, and everyone else they like, he uses his looks, charm, and bankability to make worthy films (mostly).
This is not a case for LD in Gatsby. Too fluffy, and too much in his established wheelhouse. Would lose to Ejiofor in a heartbeat. But if WOWS makes its deadline…LD could also benefit from the film not being bound to win anything ELSE as well as the sense that the Academy needs to somehow recognize the financial crisis.
Remember that I said this in September: if Scorsese gets this thing done on time, it becomes DiCaprio time.
“the Academy needs to somehow recognize the financial crisis.”
Humph… not sure it’s the best way to acknowledge it. The trailer gives the impression the film will glamorize the kind of reckless behavior and excesses that led us into this mess, which is embarassing. Does the Academy really want to associate with that? And it would give Jordan Belfort yet another occasion to crow and stroke his already huge ego.
Of course, Scorsese is a smart guy and he wouldn’t simply glorify such a selfish and cynical character, there will surely be a darker and more sobering side to this movie, but it seems, based on the trailer, Paramount is trying to sell him as some sort of fearless hero who pursues unashamedly his dream of unbridled hedonism.
Any way you look at it, there’s bound to be some major controversy around this movie and its main character.
My top 5 best actor performances I’ve seen so far this year:
1.Hugh Jackman (prisoners)
2. John Gallagher Jr (short term 12)
3. Dennis Quaid (at any price)
4. Tye Sheridan (mud)
5. James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Imagine if Ejiofor loses at the end???? Imagine all the fits, nervous breakdown, racism accusations in this site??? It would be fun to watch.
I agree with those about M. Jordan not deserving even the nod. I was much more impressed by O.Spencer in that movie than M.J.
And unfortunately her nod is a lock just because she is who she is but I am not much impressed by Oprah either. Imo, Whitaker is much better than her one-dimensional, repetitive performance. And the makeup was just horrible! so much so that it was a major distraction for me.
Ejiofor is the EARLY frontrunner with McConaughey close behind and sure, every now and then early stunners go all the way…but we shouldn’t forget that around this time last year everybody and their mother thought Joaquin Phoenix would win…and considering the SAG-snub, it’s fair to assume he barely made the top5 in the end and after Lincoln stunned at the New York Film Fest a few weeks later, it was relatively late entry, Daniel Day-Lewis’s to lose.
Irony ? Last year’s early frontrunner Phoenix could be the late stunner stealing the show this year. I have a feeling HER will go a long way with the Academy. Just a hunch.
Same time last year, I couldn’t have cared less about Phoenix, I was expecting a DDL/Jackman showdown. As for my mom she didn’t know who he was back then, and still doesn’t! Thank you very much!
I guess right now Chiwetel is indeed frontrunner, for lack of a better contender, I would rather see him win than any of the other name thrown around, though my only wish is that DiCaprio would get nominated for any performance in order to increase even more his overdue status.
Well then you must be clairvoyant because neither Lincoln (October 8) nor Les Misérables (late November) had been seen by anyone this time last year.
Last SEPTEMBER, right after his film got rave reviews (86 MC) and he won the Volpi Cup in Venice, Phoenix was definitely the talk of the town…then it turned to Day-Lewis in October after the New York Film Fest…then Jackman entered the race in November and for a split second made a few people question a potential Day-Lewis sweep…but then consensus super-quickly went back to Day-Lewis after LesMis didn’t get the widely expected critical support and from then on it was a standard sweep.
Even though Lincoln hadn’t been seen yet, most pundits had DDL at #1 from September to February. I can’t find the graphs on GoldDerby before January but I know he was at least #1 all-season long on the Feinberg Forecast. Phoenix was always a major threat, especially after Venice, but he was never a clear and undisputed frontrunner. And I do believe Chiwetel’s status right now is stronger than Phoenix’s was last year and that he is undeniably more likable than Phoenix, which doesn’t mean his performance is better, but it does mean a lot oscar-wise.
“And I do believe Chiwetel’s status right now is stronger than Phoenix’s was last year and that he is undeniably more likable than Phoenix, which doesn’t mean his performance is better, but it does mean a lot oscar-wise.”
I can agree with THIS wholeheartedly.
Yeah… I guess that’s why I react strongly when I hear people say good things about him. Sorry. He was great in Gladiator though, perfectly in character! Should’ve won back then! (not-so-funny story: I actually wrote Radiator instead of Gladiator before I re-read my comment)
🙂 I laughed.
We should decide on which films are most likely to land a BP + BD nomination first in order to have a clear picture on what will happen on this category. Slave is almost a lock for BP and BD but other slots are pretty much up for grabs. So many factors will kick in come November.
Apparently, Gravity will do very well with directors (praises from Cameron and Aronofsky) and I sure hope Cuaron will win BD in a split like Lee did last year.
If American Hustle is remotely decent, O’Russell could be in too. After all they did nominated him for SLP…
Scorsese and the Coen Brothers are also very popular but they’re far from being locked right now.
im so glad theres something else out there that isnt up oprahs ass like everyone else is.:) can you say overrated?
Probably worth mentioning that Hugh Jackman has ALREADY started working the room, something he does pretty well. After attending the Toronto premiere, he received 2 (!!!) Lifetime Achievement Awards this week (Zurich Film Fest, San Sebastian International Film Festival), Prisoners was screened on both occasions.
As I said earlier, with a flashy, critically acclaimed performance in a well-received Box Office hit that can also count on the kind of expensive Oscar campaign only big studios like WB can afford, combined with leftover goodwill from last year, his star power and willingness to campaign, Jackman should be considered seriously for a slot in the top5. I’m not saying he will get it, I’m saying he is definitely in the group (top7, I was convinced to drop Elba to #8) that could surprise without really surprising anyone.
Also, I could easily see Jake Gyllenhaal emerging as a strong nominee. The Academy loves movie stars in ‘big’ supporting roles (=co-lead and a bit of a category fraud). I don’t think he could beat Leto or Fassbender, but he could be definitely up there with them in the end.
the Oscar is going to MMC or Chiwetel Ejiofor, that’s the end of the race.
Bruce Dern, Tom Hanks and Robert Redford will be the other nominees.
Forest Whitaker and Michael B. Jordan shouldn’t be nominated. Maybe Whitaker can replace Hanks but couldn’t see what the fuss is all about Jordan’s performance. He’s strictly okay.
I’ve yet to see 12YAS (and I’m anticipating being blown away) but in the mean time I’m happy to consider Hanks winning a third Best Actor Oscar.
He’s done so much great work over the last decade and he keeps getting overlooked because “he’s won so much already”.
Over the last decade? Really? Since 2003, then, correct?
Here’s his filmography since that date (discounting animated voice work, because that really shouldn’t factor into this):
The Terminal (decent, but nowhere near career best work)
The Ladykillers (possibly his worst performance of all time)
The Da Vinci Code (give me a break)
Charlie Wilson’s War (pretty good work in a mediocre movie)
The Great Buck Howard (don’t know, don’t care)
Angels & Demons (ugh, jeez, you really still think he’s done great work in the last decade?)
Larry Crowne (kill me now)
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (kill everyone now)
Cloud Atlas (the first time on this list I would legitimately call his work top notch, but only in certain sections of the film)
Saving Mr. Banks (I saw this already and he is fine in it, but it’s Emma Thompson’s show all the way)
Captain Phillips (looks extremely promising and incredibly tense)
Make no mistake, this year is a comeback of sorts for Tom, provided that Captain Phillips is indeed good. He’s been seriously slumming it over the last decade. 2 Da Vinci Code movies, The Ladykillers, Extremely Loud and Larry Crowne: that is some later-career-De Niro level slumming.
thank you
“The Ladykillers” is my least favorite from the Coens, but I think Hanks is actually pretty great in it.
I keep reading how Best Actor is so tight and up in the air. Maybe it is. It seems to me like Ejiofor pretty much has it in the bag.
With Grace of Monaco, Wolf of Wall Street and Foxcatcher out of the race, it seems like we’re looking at:
12 Years a Slave
McQueen
Ejiofor
Blanchett
Hanks?
Winfrey (possibly Nyongo)
I hope I’m wrong. I’m already bored with this year.
I think it’ll be more like:
12 Years A Slave
Alfonso Cuaron
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Emma Thompson
Jared Leto
Lupita Nyong’o
After the Fassbender/Shannon fiasco a couple of years ago, I’m reluctant to favor anybody yet, but an Isaac/Jordan/Ejiofor combo would really make me happy.
The difference between all those other years and this one is while the race is currently wide-open, it’s only September. The picture could (and likely will) solidify before the big day.
Also, Forest Whitaker is not happening, push from Harvey or not. Nobody watches that film and comes out oohing and aahing over his performance. Oprah’s sucking up all the attention in that one and (aside from maybe David Oyelowo) rightfully so.
Yup on Oprah. She has so much influence she creates her own weather. Woe on the other candidates.
Chiwetel Ejiofor has it in the bag. No one is even close.
I think Sasha got it exactly right with the list of her first five. Chewitel Ejiafor, McConaughey, Redford, Hanks and Dern. Everyone else gets left off. Sad but true. This is what we’re looking at, for real folks. Having met Chewitel at TIFF, he’s the nicest, humblest, most accomodating and unpretentious guy. Hollywood is going to love him.
so when you met him i take it you didnt learn how to spell his name?
Best Actor race isn’t that hard. First you eliminate those not likely to get in Best Picture. Bye Dern, Redford and McCounaghey. Then you add in those in most likely to get into Best Picture Hello Bale, DiCaprio, and Hanks. Sit and wait till January.
Yeah, because actors nominated in movies that missed Best Picture never, ever win.
um…who said anything about winning? ….
Nope. Not that easy. Most years there are one or two slots in Best Actor that aren’t Best Picture nominees. Last year, for example, had two Best Actor nominees that weren’t starring in BP nominees–Phoenix for The Master and Denzel for Flight.
Denzel had screenplay and Phoenix had 2 other actors. They weren’t nominated by themselves.
um.. hugh jackman prisoners should be on that list (duh)
I have a feeling that at the end of all of this, ALL IS LOST is going to get negatively received by critics and viewers (I’m sorry, it just really wasn’t that fantastic IMO. Redford was very one-note, I thought.) and then Redford will lose his spot.
Bruce Dern HAS to be nominated! I think he’s competition for the win, although Chiwetel Ejiofor is incredibly hard to beat. I don’t see how people won’t vote unabashedly for him.
Oh! I have an idea:
Best Performance in an Otherwise Mediocre/Bad Film
Andrea Riseborough-Oblivion
Gerard Butler-Olympus Has Fallen
Tobey Maguire-The Great Gatsby
Elizabeth Debicki-The Great Gatsby
Henry Cavill-Man of Steel
Take your pick!
Best Performance By An Actor In An Otherwise Bad/Mediocre Film:
Dwayne Johnson – Pain & Gain
Leonardo Dicaprio – The Great Gatsby
Nick Offerman – The Kings Of Summer
Zach Braff – Oz The Great And Powerful
Michael Shannon – The Iceman
Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Best Performance By An Actress In An Otherwise Bad/Mediocre Film:
Mia Wasikowska – Stoker
Amy Acker – Much Ado About Nothing
Katie Chang – The Bling Ring
Rosario Dawson – Trance
Andrea Riseborough – Oblivion
Melissa McCarthy – The Heat
I’m rooting for someone who has no chance whatsoever. I’m totally in love with Jake Gyllenhaal in PRISONERS, but the obstinate keep only mentioning Hugh Jackman, who was only fine, I guess it’s because he got to scream his lungs out a couple of times. Unfortunate.
I was anticipating to be all in Steve Carrell’s camp after seeing snippets of what he’s done in FOXCATCHER, but now that’s over. Excited to see what Matthew McConaughey has cooked up for us in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, but if the movie as a whole doesn’t match the performance I won’t care much.
It’s worth noticing although nowhere near my top 10 but for what was required of him, Chris Hemsworth was perfect in RUSH, and no, I don’t mean only being his pretty self.
Having gone through all that, and knowing me, it’s all a matter of time before Chiwetel Eijofor or Oscar Isaac top my list of male performances of the year. So far:
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
1. Jake Gyllenhaal – PRISONERS
2. Tye Sheridan – MUD
3. Miles Teller – THE SPECTACULAR NOW
4. Dennis Quaid – AT ANY PRICE
5. Ethan Hawke – BEFORE MIDNIGHT
Best Performance by a Beautiful Man in an Otherwise Forgettable Film
1. Dylan O’Brien – THE INTERNSHIP
2. Nicholas Hoult – JACK THE GIANT SLAYER / Aaron Johnson – KICK-ASS 2 [tie!]
3. Jai Courtney – A GOOD DAY TO DIE HARD / Nolan Funk – RIDDICK [tie!]
4. Alden Ehrenreich – BEAUTIFUL CREATURE
5. Max Irons – THE HOST
Now I have to spend the next ten fucking minutes on Google Images!
Jai Courtney all the way!
Oh yeah, I remember you prefer them brawny and rugged.
Actually, just caught up with this on the Netflix, and these two just jumped to the top of the list. Bye, Max Irons.
1. Llorenç González & Álvaro Cervantes – EL SEXO DE LOS ANGELES
You can link better than that
Gay/Bisexual/Hetero?
Now I’m so mixed up I can’t even remember which color is the warmest.
Haha. Just keeping it HD, and PG 🙂
Yeah, I caught that film but gave up halfway through since it just wasn’t good enough, if you tell me to finish it, I will.
It’s been awhile since I’ve seen a good gay film. Yossi is out there, but I want to rewatch Yossi and Jagger before I give that a go.
Not at all. The category is “forgettable movies”. I found the two guys extremely sexy and they were considerably invested in the gay scenes. By recent you mean recent time or the last couple of years? I’m not sure what you’ve seen or haven’t, but check out THE WITNESSES, and if you enjoy it, seek out WILD REEDS, and to lighten things up while keeping it French, maybe C.R.A.Z.Y.? These are all portrait-ish. I can recommend a ton, but I better stay sufferable.
Hold on, dude. I’m totally with Jake. I’ve been pissed since Clooney took his Supporting Oscar for Brokeback. I just thought Jake was supporting this year too. And that category is always a mosh pit. The Jackman love isn’t really love. It’s just he’s their boy so to speak. He’s hosted and he’s “nice”. So they want him there. I’m betting on him, but I don’t think he deserves it. Jake was better in the film, obviously.
Agreed, Antoinette. At 32, Jake’s filmography is astounding: DONNIE DARKO, OCTOBER SKY, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, SOURCE CODE, JARHEAD, END OF WATCH, PRISONERS and the not-altogether-terrible BROTHERS and LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS.
Weirdly, I’m okay with Gyllenhall losing Best Supporting Actor that year because it would just seem so wrong for him to win Supporting Actor and Ledger to lose Best Actor when Ledger was superior (yes, I’m still bitter about Ledger losing, although I really did pretty much love Capote and PSH). Of course, I also felt it would be wrong for Kim Basinger to win Supporting Actress in 1997 if Crowe/Pierce/Spacey were all overlooked in Supporting Actor, but we remember what happened there…
Bryce
How come Quaids performance isn’t getting any Oscar buzz?
david, unlike SHORT TERM 12, it’s far from being universally loved. The film lost many good reviews with its ending, I suspect. But if you remember that Quaid didn’t get in for FAR FROM HEAVEN, that should explain a lot. They might not regard him at all.
I’m with you 100% Bryce, Gyllenhaal was best in show in ‘Prisoners’, better than Jackman. I thought Jackman was great, but Gyllenhaal is the one deserving of awards buzz.
One performance that has been over looked is John Gallagher Jr “short term 12” he was just as good as Larson unlike Larson he has no chance
In any other year, Jackman would be an absolute shoo in for the award (Sorry Sasha but he should have won last year – It really wasn’t DDL’s best job). Hugh is simply one of the best actors working in the business. This year, he is one more absolutely wonderful performance amid another ten or more performances. He definitely deserves to be nominated.
In any other year, Jackman would be an absolute shoo in for the award (Sorry Sasha but he should have won last year – It really wasn’t DDL’s best job).
*side-eyes Jamie*
Please, tell me you’re kidding! Jackman should have WON last year? No, no, no! I actually preferred Cooper to Jackman, for God’s sake!
Robert A’s rankings for Best Actor 2012: 1) DDL and 1) Phoenix (yes, I can’t decide which one I prefer) 3) Washington 4) Cooper 5) Jackman.
“In any other year, Jackman would be an absolute shoo in for the award (Sorry Sasha but he should have won last year – It really wasn’t DDL’s best job).”
*joins Antoinette and side-eyes Jamie, like, forever and a day*
I stand with Jamie vs. the bullies on this one… Les Misérables was too great to be properly rewarded by the Academy anyway. No Oscar can ever match the prizeless grandeur and humanity of this unrivaled work of art.
no and no
“When Ian McKellen for Gods and Monsters was up against Nick Nolte for Affliction, Tom Hanks for Saving Private Ryan, Edward Norton for American History X, Roberto Benigni won for Life is Beautiful.”
Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.
Can’t we forget that, please? It’s too painful a memory.
Oscars has never been an awards show that precisely honors “the best” every year, they basically reward what in each season becomes “their favorites”. The majority of voters vote for what they liked the most, for what touched them the most, which doesn’t always match with what their minds tell them what they consider the best. Then, people need to understand that is not a kind of movie god the one that decides every year what’s the best, it is people, and they are biased by their feelings. Oscars are then closer to a People’s Choice Awards than to a Cannes, Venice or Berlin film festival.
You have to stop taking the Oscars too seriously then. When that happens, your memories will stop being painful as you feel.
Thanks for the condescending lecture and for taking a tongue-in-cheek complaint so seriously.
Yes, I know we are probably down to my top8 and maybe Phoenix, still I like to explore all possibilities :
POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNER
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (highly acclaimed lead of the early BP frontrunner)
2. Matthew McConaughey (the Academy does love brutal physical transformations…)
POTENTIAL NOMINEES
3. Robert Redford (I just can’t shake this ‘Duvall/Get Low’ deja vu)
4. Tom Hanks (Mr. Banks may cancel him out here)
5. Forest Whitaker (great lead of a big hit + Oprah/Harvey push)
6. Bruce Dern (category confusion can hurt a lot…Lesley Manville, anyone ?)
7. Idris Elba (towering performance, iconic role, Weinstein-factor)
8. Hugh Jackman (career-best reviews, decent BoxOffice, big studio)
POTENTIAL SURPRISES
9. Ralph Fiennes (if SPC turns up the heat…)
10. Oscar Isaac (if the film emerges as a top5 BP/BD contender…)
11. Michael B. Jordan (if critics groups resurrect the buzz…)
12. Ethan Hawke (ONLY if the film pulls an ‘Amour’ in the big ones)
POTENTIAL LATE ENTRIES
13. Joaquin Phoenix (most likely to emerge as a strong nominee)
14. Ben Stiller (most likely to emerge as an unexpected contender )
15. Christian Bale (Hustle or Furnace, this is the question !)
16. Michael Fassbender (probably too genre perf + his supporting campaign)
17. George Clooney (well, the film could still surprise…)
18. Josh Brolin (baity role…non-existent buzz)
P.S. Still no confirmation that The Wolf of Wall Street was moved, actually there are reports saying it will be definitely released in December the latest. So Leonardo DiCaprio could still make a dent in this race.
Thank you for your thoroughness, Phantom, but let’s not over complicate matters. Sasha thinks there are six actors competing for five slots, and I pretty much agree with her, but I’d maybe put seven actors still in contention with one or two “wild cards.”
In contention: Ejiofor. McConaughey. Redford. Dern. Hanks. Whitaker or Michael B Jordan (not both) as the Harvey representative. Phoenix as the wild card, but I kind of doubt it (although admittedly I don’t know much about “Her.” )”American Hustle” and Christian Bale, I guess, is also a wild card, although in order for Bale to break through, at this point, he’ll have to be extraordinary.
Drop Jackman! Not going to happen. Drop Fiennes. Really, Phantom, you have to listen to me! Elba is also unlikely (shaky reception to the film), but since he’s a Harvey boy, I guess I shouldn’t dismiss him completely. But I don’t think he’s Harvey’s top dog. Brolin, Clooney, Hawke, Stiller, Fassbender, all no. Oscar Isaac has the slimmest of chances, but again I think he’s probably not going to happen.
With all of this said, why do I feel like the conventional wisdom of Ejiofor, McConaughey, Redford, Dern, and Hanks is a 4/5 slate?
P.S. Phantom, I’m not sure why you feel Redford is equivalent to Duvall and Get Low, but I think, for the sake of your Oscar score, you should reconsider!
I have this bad feeling about Robert Redford’s slot and I know I shouldn’t, I finally saw the film a few weeks ago and thought he was phenomenal.
It’s just too many survival tales in Best Actor, most of them more high-profile and strong/decent BP/BD players (Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Tom Hanks), there are also all these actors (Forest Whitaker, Idris Elba) in ‘important’ films (the Academy likes ‘important’…or at least to look like they do), the shiny new toys a.k.a. the breakthrough performances (Michael B. Jordan, Oscar Isaac) then there is the one with the great narrative (Bruce Dern) and the sexiestmanalivekindof movie star (Hugh Jackman), not to mention the unseens, Joaquin Phoenix and Christian Bale in particular, and the ridiculously overdue Ralph Fiennes.
For the record, I have Redford as a solid #3 at the moment…but looking at the other contenders, I must say I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the ‘Get low’ treatment in the end. Duvall had been widely considered a lock all year long and then bamm, failed to receive the nod. Redford has a similar narrative : already Oscar winning film legend making an artistic comeback. I guess what may hurt him the most that with the exception of Elba, ALL these other contenders are in films that are (at the moment at least) seriously considered for a BP nomination, and Redford’s isn’t, not yet anyway. Having said that, If the the Academy embraces the film, he will definitely make the cut. If they won’t…
In Contention said Bale gives the best performance of his career in Out of the Furnace, but thats all they could say right now. And Hugh Jackman deserves the nomination for Prisoners, he really does give the best performance of his career, and a movie hasnt hit me that hard since Funny Games and The Silence of the Lambs.
Saying Bale gave the performance of his career is really saying something. He’s the best of his generation, imo.
Am I the only one who thinks that The Secret Life of Walter Mitty could end up like We Bought a Zoo?
And I have a feeling that American Hustle is going to be this year’s Django Unchained or Zero Dark Thirty.
We bought a Zoo didn’t get the prestigious Centerpiece Gala slot at the New York Film Fest, so that might be a sign that The Secret Life of Walter Mitty is in a different league. Well, we’ll know more next Saturday !
The previous Centerpiece selections were Not Fade Away and My Week with Marilyn – not huge awards successes, though Weinstein managed to get Marilyn a couple Oscar nods. I don’t see Walter Mitty as a big Oscar contender either, to be honest, particularly given AMPAS’s chilly reception toward American comedians.
Dunno why bloggers keep insisting that best actor is the most competitive acting category this year, when the truth is that it is the best actress race one the bloodiest. In best actor, 3 of the 5 nominated names have a strong chance to be called on Oscar night; Ejiofor, McConaughey and Redford. The winner will be one of those, and there’s no more. But in the best actress race, we have the double of names that have the same likelihood to be called: Blanchett, Dench, Streep, Bullock, Adams and Thompson. Yes, Blanchett is right now the frontrunner according to everyone, but you can’t deny that the other 3 that have been seen, Dench, Streep and Bullock, are a strong competition. Dench, because she’s part of acting royalty, has the “getting old and blind and we have never gave her best actress” narrative, and has Harvey backing her, Streep, well, simply because it is Streep in another great role, and Bullock, because she’s one of Hollywood queens, everyone loves her, and she’s the protagonist of the latest highly acclaimed extravaganza movie. And the other 2 that haven’t been seen yet, Adams, because she has the overdue narrative, and it’s (as it’s been said) the leading lady in a David O’Russell movie (whose movies are clearly adored by the acting branch), and finally Thompson who has a comeback great lead role in what is shaping to be a heartbreaking film for which a lot of people will be likely surrended to. So, in best actress you have 6 potential winners, but in best actor you have the half of that. I do believe then that discussion will be more interesting in the female leading category.
I have seen the movie Blue Jasmine last night and Blanchett gave a hilarious performance – one of the best in cinema history I would say. I am not sure if any other actor would have any chance up against her.
I agree. Blanchett’s performance is one of the very best performances, male or female, I have seen in the past 20 years on screen. Right up there with Daniel Day Lewis in There Will be Blood, Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves, Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven
Yes, but only one of those actually WON the Oscar.
LOL we all went for OUT OF THE FURNACE simultaneously. 😀
🙂
Back to MUD, Roadside had already sent out the Academy screeners, so they are very serious about those Oscar prospects and they campaign McConaughey in supporting. First screeners of the season have a decent track record (A Better Life, Animal Kingdom etc.), so he could pull double duty in the end.
Oh. That’s good news. Thanks. 🙂
I still love MUD. Not that they’d campaign for it but if they did would he be lead or supporting? He is the title character.
I’m not rooting for it but I think Jackman (PRISONERS) is a good bet too.
Is Bale lead in AMERICAN HUSTLE? I know nothing about it, but I’m still curious if OUT OF THE FURNACE will place anywhere.
I don’t know. I guess things are iffy right now.
I bet there will be a campaign for Matthew McConaughey in Mud, in supporting probably. Since he’s looking so strong for a leading nomination for Dallas Buyers Club, they’d be unwise to give himself competition for that slot. But the film was so well-received I can’t imagine it not getting some love.
Actually I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Christian Bale’s more acclaimed lead performance came from Out of the Furnace instead of American Hustle. Former will premiere at the Rome Film Fest in November, so maybe we’ll know more after that !
There is no DuJardin, at least not yet, and there certainly is no Roberto Benigni.
Well you can tell the difference, which is more than can be said for me…
I’m wondering if Christian Bale might also stand a chance for Scott Cooper’s Out of the Furnace. In fact, it looks like a baitier role than American Hustle, and if the film’s good he could be in for it instead.
LOL, Paddy, I was wondering the exact same thing a few minutes later. Agreed, I think ‘Furnace’ may be his better shot this year.
“Leo’s out for Wolf of Wall Street and so is Steve Carell, that only leaves Christian Bale for American Hustle to wait for.”
What about Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Michael Fassbender (The Counselor) and maybe even Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty) ?
Also are you writing off Idris Elba ? He received raves, he plays an iconic man and can also rely on the Weinstein machine. I think he is definitely up there with these other strong contenders even if he may not have their star power to go all the way to the top5.
I think Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman) could be a solid surprise, as well. SPC plans a big campaign for this remarkably well-received film that Fiennes also directed, plus Dickens (and with a Christmas release nonetheless) might just be the role that will finally make the Academy remember this greatly underappreciated actor. You were right, he should have won for Schindler’s List, but just thinking about all the snubs since his last nomination (The English Patient in 1996), makes me frustrated : The End of the Affair, Onegin, Sunshine, Spider, The Constant Gardener, In Bruges, The Duchess, The Reader, The Deathly Hallows, Coriolanus.
P.S. I wouldn’t count out Hugh Jackman just yet. Good/great reviews, raves for him, decent BO, big studio, leftover goodwill from last year and a charming movie star willing to campaign…also the kind of role SAG voters tend to respond to.
You’re right on it with Joaquin. Probs not for Ralph or Ben. Maybe Hugh.
Idris Elba and Michael Fassbender – neither stand much of a chance. And I wouldn’t consider the reviews he got to be raves. Up against this field, he needs a lot more than that. Starting with a movie people actually liked…
Ralph Fiennes is a first class actor and he should have been awarded for so many of his performances under his belt. Just the right place – right time situation. Maybe a directing oscar in future?
Joaquin could take that Hanks slot if the picture’s as good as it looks
If we are throwing any major nominations to The Great Gatsby (which we shouldn’t because I thought that film was an empty adaptation that sucked all the life from the novel), then they should be given to Tobey Maguire and Elizabeth Debicki. DiCaprio’s performance was hammy and everyone else was underused in this disappointment of a film.
I didn’t like GATSBY at all but it’s my recollection that Joel Edgerton was the one getting all the attention for that movie.
The Great Gatsby should at the very least win two Oscars: Best Production Design (it looked absolutely gorgeous and every detail was carefully thought out) and Best Original Song (Lana Del Rey’s Young and Beautiful is ethereal and perfectly recaptures the moods and themes of the film, particularly Daisy’s feelings toward Gatsby).
Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn as Gatsby was so overwhelmingly brilliant that I can understand why some would be uncomfortable with it. Carey Mulligan, Tobey Maguire, Joel Edgerton, Elizabeth Debicki, Isla Fisher and even Jason Clarke also deserve praises for their standout performances. Quite a charming and talented Ensemble!
I’m not sure why you’re completely ruling out Leo for ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’. If it’s because of the rumors of it being delayed until next year, I’ve heard that the studio said it’ll be out before the year’s end, possibly Christmas at the latest. Only ‘Foxcatcher’ was OFFICIALLY delayed until next year.
Also loved Leonardo DiCaprio in The Great Gatsby — he got raves for his performance and in my view his risky, emotional, lovesick portrayal, which was extremely moving, was the star turn that the movie needed — and responsible for the critical and audience disconnect on the movie. Everyone I know who saw the film fell completely in love with him, myself included.
I don’t think you know me then.
Me neither!
“Oh that Grace, Oh that Body, Oh that Face, Makes me wanna party” Lana Del Rey – Young and Beautiful
Leonardo DiCaprio was magnificent in The Great Gatsby. The finest actor of his generation, if not ever, giving once again a performance for the ages and recapturing perfectly the essence of a legendary character.
Critics and snobbish bloggers didn’t even give the film a proper chance, they readied their knives long before it was screened to the press, in the foolish hope they could turn audiences away from the film, and put an end to Baz Luhrmann’s dazzling career, embarassed as they are by his misunderstood cinematic genius. But mark my words, Baz will be remembered in Film History long after their unremarkable pet directors will have been forgotten.
If nothing else, The Great Gatsby should at the very least be seriously considered for Best Production Design (gorgeous scenery) and Best Original Song (Lana Del Rey’s fantastic Young and Beautiful).
DiCaprio did not win raves for his work in Gatsby. Critics were split on his performance. With most stating he was one of the two weakest links in the film, the other being Daisy.
One performance from earlier this year that was absolutely a career topper was Dennis Quaid in At Any Price. Talk about a complex and morally conflicted character played to the hilt. Quaid, eternally underappreciated, was top-notch in that movie — it’s one of those towering, tragic performances.
+1
Let it be known you speak the truth
I lot loved Quaids performance how come he’s not getting any Oscar consideration?
I would love to see a campaign for Dennis Quaid in At Any Price – his performance is extraordinary. One of the finest performances of the year, in one of the year’s best films.
Do we really need to ask this? I mean, are we really baffled by why this performance isn’t being promoted, or even mentioned? This film was the faintest puff of wind in the slipstream; it’s a couple of great performances grappling with a mediocre screenplay, got mediocre reviews, almost no marketing or distribution, and it never broke through on its own. Oscar-bound films must have Oscar stories, and this film could not BUY one of those. What’s to be confused by?
I just saw At Any Price last night, and this summary is exactly right. Dennis Quaid was very good, but the screenplay was weak.