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Best Actress: Cate Blanchett and her Challengers

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This year, it feels like there is Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine and everyone else.  It isn’t that anyone is confident Blanchett can win. When Anne Thompson suggested Blanchett was the frontrunner she was was pounced upon by many of her colleagues who said the often heard Oscar season phrase, “no way.”  Even still, here it is September and a few performances insist upon sharing the spotlight. Most of the challengers, and even Blanchett herself, are prior Oscar winners.  That means that the winner this year, at least so far, is likely to be a repeat winner.

Blanchett’s first and strongest competition (so far) comes from two such previous  winners, Sandra Bullock (won lead for The Blind Side) in Gravity and Judi Dench (won supporting for Shakespeare in Love) in Philomena. The urgency to reward a winner tips in Blanchett’s favor, however, given that Bullock has won fairly recently, and Blanchett has an impressive grossly under-rewarded body of work behind her.  Not having yet seen Philomena, it’s hard to gauge how good or powerful or undeniable the role is.

Bullock carries Gravity completely, with some help from George Clooney. It is a showcase piece, like Redford’s All is Lost, where the inner world must be revealed frame by frame. Gravity will make a shitload of coin, which will only add to Bullock’s heft in the category. Her recent win in 2009 works against her for the win but her nomination is secure.

Kate Winslet is a strong contender for Labor Day. Like Bullock, Winslet has won fairly recently, although 2008.  She’s been nominated six times and it took an all-out publicity push to get her the win, courtesy of the Weinstein Co.  There is no question that hers is one of the best performances of the year. Her nomination also seems probable.

Today is the day August: Osage County plays in Toronto, but there isn’t a Meryl Streep threat coming from that movie, since she’s been put in the supporting category.  According to Kris Tapley, Meryl Streep is still in lead. That means she’s in play and will likely be turning in another standout, blowing Julia Roberts out of the water, possibly.  Whether the Academy adheres to that is a different question. There’s Julia Roberts from the film who might make an impact for a nod.

The one to really watch out for is the beloved Emma Thompson. She’s won lead already for Howards End way back in 1992 and is supposedly outstanding in Saving Mr. Banks.  If anyone can take down Blanchett it could be Thompson, both for her general likability in Hollywood (and everywhere) and the likability of her character; the problem with Blanchett’s Jasmine is that she isn’t likable and the Oscars often tip their scale to the likability, or fuckability, side.

One of the breakout stars for this year is Brie Larson in Short Term 12. This is the kind of role women used to get back when they ruled the box office.  She plays a woman with a difficult past but also one who is the smartest person in the room, and the one who holds everything together. Rare is the film that features a woman in that light without making her earn her keep as the resident sexpot.  It isn’t that sex is removed from her character, but her main purpose in the film is beyond it.

The same can’t be said for the mesmerizing performance of the young Adele Exarchopoulos in Blue is the Warmest Colour. It must be said this is most certainly one of the standouts of the year. Every tiny movement or ripple of her emotions are captured on camera for the three hours we spend with her. Her co-star Lea Seydoux ought to be considered for supporting.  It would be hard to argue against the nominations of either of these actresses simply based on the nature of the film, which is much ado about the graphic sex scenes.

The sight unseen performance on everyone’s mind is Amy Adams in David O. Russell’s American Hustle. But it’s unclear whether it will be one of the great ones or not. Many are comfortable predicting Adams for the win, without having seen the film based on her past performances, on David O. Russell’s track record (of late) with winning Oscars for his stars – Jennifer Lawrence last year, Melissa Leo and Christian Bale the year before.

How I see the Best Actress race right now shaping up of the films that have been seen:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Judi Dench, Philomena
3. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
4. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
5. Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

Followed by:
6. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
7. Brie Larson, Short Term 12

Three slots in the top five could be bumped by:

1. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
2. Amy Adams, American Hustle
3. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

Amy Adams is the only name in serious contention for the win right now who has never been nominated. In a wild, wild world Exarchopoulos could win, even with the recent hubub involving the actresses and the director.  I would say my instincts tell me that Emma Thompson would be next in line. But I believe right now only one actress can realistically win, without having seen the other performance, and that is still Cate Blanchett.

 

206 Comments on this Post

  1. are we sure about Meryl in supporting ? she’s basically a lock in either category but I thought Meryl’s camped said she didn’t want to go supporting.

    I do think Amy Adams will be great in American Hustle and get her 1st lead nomination . she can’t take down Cate Blanchett though I don’t think

    Judi Dench should be nominated for Philomena. as should Sandra Bullock for Gravity.

    so I have

    01. Cate Blanchett
    02. Amy Adams
    03. Sandra Bullock
    04. Judi Dench
    05. Meryl Streep

    with Emma Thompson just missing out because Saving Mr. Banks might not get enough buzz around it to get her in the Top 5. I think Emma and Kate Winslet will get some major nominations though like GG and BAFTA , but will fall short for Oscar.

    none of the other contenders are feeling strong to me at this point in the game. by December it’s usually narrowed down to 7-8 nominees anyway.

    Cate Blanchett should win and no one can really argue with that :D

  2. Bryce Forestieri

    Is THE IMMIGRANT really boring like those other James Gray movies? If so I can understand why Marion Cotillard’s name isn’t being thrown around more. If people take the screener off after 20 minutes she’s not getting nominated.

  3. Great piece, Sasha, and I think you’re right sticking with Blanchett, I also believe she will win quite simply because she may be the only one in the Best Actress race whose film is the kind of character study that is exclusively all about her performance.

    Sure, Gravity is all about Bullock, but as you said, she has help from Clooney and the film is also all about the breathtaking visuals. Having said that, if my early hunch rings true and Gravity will be the BP/BD winner in the end, Bullock could easily pull ‘a Swank’.

    Dench is in a Weinstein-crowdpleaser and if 2010 taught us anything, it’s that we should always watch out for those, not to mention she has never won Best Actress, so she is definitely a viable threat, but she has a prominently featured co-star and an already awarded screenplay (Venice).

    Then there is Emma Thompson who has been shockingly absent from the Oscar game for almost two decades and apparently is back with her best work in years and in a potential sleeper hit nonetheless.

    I agree, right now I would predict one of these four ladies to win and my prediction would be Blanchett.

  4. Watermelons

    “Kate Winslet is a strong contender for Labor Day. Like Bullock, Winslet has won fairly recently, although 2008. She’s been nominated six times and it took an all-out publicity push to get her the win, courtesy of the Weinstein Co. There is no question that hers is one of the best performances of the year. Her nomination also seems probable.”

    I think Kate “Silver Screen Champion” Winslet’s (Carnage, The Holiday) nomination chance can be described as more than probable! An OSCAR for Kate Winslet for Labor Day is my one for-sure Oscar Prediction this early in the Cinema Awards Season.

    -Watermelons

  5. filmboymichael

    I unfortunately couldn’t secure those passes for the gala tonight for August: Osage County – but I sure as hell can’t wait to hear the response for the film tonight. The buzz amongst the fest goers is strong – I’m hoping it can sustain through till the final credits roll….word from festival insiders is that it is really strong….

  6. Christophe

    Alphabetical order:

    Adams
    Blanchett
    Bullock
    Exarchopoulos
    Thompson

  7. Don’t worry, even if Winslet is considered groundbreaking (people who’ve seen the film say she is very good or very very good but definitely not the second coming of Christ) she won’t win the Oscar. A nominations is more than probable of course, but she is not winning, just wait and see.

  8. Amy Adms = Thelma Ritter

  9. I think Blanchett might lap the field. Perfect storm with critics and audiences. Adams could contend here but I think her best chance to win is supporting for Her. These are my top 5 women for now:

    Adams
    Blanchett
    Dench
    Exarchopoulos
    Streep

  10. mark my words people , cate is not winning for blue jasmine,and im sure that she will win a second oscar but not for this role….

    i have a feeling that dench will be snubbed, dont know why.

    meryl will be nominated in leading unless julia steals the whole show, but i dont see happening

    i would love to see the french girls make it in leading and supporting, i like leah seyoudoux i have seen a couples of her movies

    emma thompson maybe ill be wrong but i think that film will flop ala naomi watts with diana

    i dont know about amy adams i think we need to see the film, as for bullock i def can see winning a second one, this film is big and it will be huge in the box office, her perfomance is so admired even with those who are not happy for her win for the blind side, the character is likeable, she is so likeable and fuckable, the movies is so good, i can even see cuaron winning best director, yes i know she just won, but between swank wins there are 5 years apart..so

  11. Right now, this is how I see this category :

    POTENTIAL WINNER
    1. Cate Blanchett – Early frontrunner.
    2. Judi Dench – Career Oscar ?
    3. Sandra Bullock – Lead of the potential BP winner ?

    POTENTIAL WINNER (BLIND GUESS)
    4. Emma Thompson – IF the film doesn’t disappoint…she won’t.
    5. Nicole Kidman – Iconic role + Weinstein push.
    6. Amy Adams – Russell’s Round 2 in Best Actress ?

    POTENTIAL NOMINEE (4th -5th slot)
    7. Kate Winslet – Mixed (early) reviews of the film may hurt her.
    8. Keira Knightley – Too indie ? Then again : Harvey.
    9. Julia Roberts – Massive internal competition ?
    10. Jessica Chastain – Too late in the game ?

    LADIES FROM FRANCE
    11. Marion Cotillard – Cannes raves + star status + Weinstein.
    12. Berenice Bejo – The foreign language factor could hurt her.
    13. Adéle Exarchopoulos – Too controversial perf for voters ?
    14. Julie Delpy – Probably not flashy enough for the Academy.
    15. Catherine Deneuve – Decent early word but non-existent buzz ever since.
    16. Emmanuelle Seigner – Ditto.

    BREAKTHROUGH NOMINATION
    17. Felicity Jones – Raves from Telluride/Toronto + December + SPC.
    18. Brie Larson – Rave reviews but has to overcome the early release.
    19. Greta Gerwig – Ditto.
    20. Elizabeth Olsen – Iconic role, small distributor.
    21. Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now) – Probably too teen-y for voters.
    22. Chloe Moretz – IF the film exceeds expectations…
    23. Lake Bell – Better shot at the Golden Globes OR in screenplay.

    NEXT YEAR (?)
    24. Jennifer Lawrence (Serena) – Strong role but no hype whatsoever.
    25. Dakota Fanning (Effie) – Ditto.

  12. I actually think Amy Adams looked MUCH better in the ‘Her’ trailer than in ‘American Hustle’.

  13. Watermelons

    “(people who’ve seen the film say she is very good or very very good but definitely not the second coming of Christ)”

    Correct: Kate Winslet (Titanic, Revolutionary Road) does not portray Christ, second coming or otherwise, in Labor Day. The soon-to-be Oscar-winning role is one of a mortal single mother with a teenage son.

  14. It’d be nice to see Delpy finally nominated for her wonderful work across the entire Before trilogy, but that ship seems to have sailed. Before Midnight, in general, has been unjustly dismissed from most Oscar talk, simply because of its low box office returns.

  15. you either 1) don’t speak English fluently or 2) are trying to be funny and are failing at it:

    either way, as I said earlier -> just wait and see that Kate Winslet is NOT going to win an Oscar for “Labour Day” :)

  16. I agree that Kate Winslet, still only in her thirties, is a force to reckon with and without a doubt, one of the greatest actresses of all time BUT it’s time to come down to Earth : even though she received rave reviews, her film hasn’t. Sure, mixed early word could still change into strong critical consensus when the film is released and if that happens, she could easily receive a nomination but common wisdom says that she will NOT win this year.

    For what it’s worth, at this point, considering the massive competition, I think the nomination would be a great accomplishment already.

  17. Bryce Forestieri

    My As Of Now Ballot

    1. Cate Blanchett – BLUE JASMINE
    2. Shailene Woodley – THE SPECTACULAR NOW
    3. Paulina Garcia – GLORIA*
    4. Brie Larson – SHORT TERM 12
    5. Julie Delpy – BEFORE MIDNIGHT

    Just Missed the Cut:

    Mia Wasikowska – STOKER

    Sounds Right Up My Alley:

    1. Sandra Bullock – GRAVITY
    2. Kate Winslet – LABOR DAY
    3. Scarlett Johansson – UNDER THE SKIN

    Given Track Record, Highly Anticipated:

    Amy Adams – AMERICAN HUSTLE

    …that’s it for me, as always I never find this category as “jam-packed” as some claim.

    *If it’s no way in hell ever gonna be released anywhere near, proceed to watch by whatever means possible…is my motto

  18. 1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
    2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
    3. Judi Dench, Philomena
    4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
    5. Amy Adams, American Hustle

    6. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (There are rumors she might go supporting)
    7. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
    8. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
    9. Bérénice Bejo, The Past
    10. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
    11. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
    12. Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant (Rave reviews but still no US release date)
    13. Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
    14. Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
    15. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

  19. We can certainly count out Naomi’s Diana…

  20. Robert A.

    I also think Blanchett is the clear frontrunner for the win. Even when the buzz was going around that Streep would be campaigned in supporting actress, I never bought that AMPAS would consider Streep’s a supporting performance. Unless August: Osage County turns out to be a complete mess, I expect Streep will get a lead nomination.

    Dench looks like a solid bet for Philomena, given the word out from the film festivals, although I don’t consider her a lock for a nomination. If American Hustle turns out strong, I can also see Adams getting her first lead nomination.

    Are we sure about Bullock? I know the film is getting raves, but my impression was that a lot of the success of the movie was its technical achievements, and Bullock is going to have to do more than be panicky in a space suit to secure a nomination (although Sasha and the others who’ve seen the film suggest Bullock’s performance is much more than that, so this is probably a moot point). I expect that Roberts is going to get overshadowed by Streep, so I’m hesitant to predict her. Kidman is a big question mark: we haven’t even seen a trailer yet, right? I have my doubts about Kidman, although this could change once we know more about the film.

    Sorry, Watermelons, but I think Winslet may well miss out this go around. The category feels too competitive. Thompson, on the other hand, could be waiting to snatch up one of those remaining slots.

    As for Brie Larson and Adele E, I think it’s going to be difficult for them to crack into this year’s more crowded Best Actress race. Not impossible, of course, but more difficult. No doubt both will get some #1 votes on those Oscar ballots, but I’m skeptical if either one can get enough to secure a nomination.

    Oh, and for anyone predicting Bullock, Roberts, and Kidman to all make the Best Actress slate–stop now! It won’t happen. That would make the list just too, too “I’m the Queen of Hollywood.” One of them, very possible. Two of them, maybe. All three, no.

    HIGHLY LIKELY/LOCKED: Cate Blanchett.
    GOOD BETS: Streep. Dench.
    QUEEN OF HOLLYWOOD SLOT: Bullock?
    WAITING TO POUNCE: Amy Adams. Emma Thompson.
    PROCEED WITH CAUTION: Roberts. Kidman.
    IN DANGER OF GETTING ANN DOWDed: Brie Larson. Adele E.
    PROBABLY NOT: Winslet. Delpy.
    OUT OF THE OSCAR RACE AND INTO THE RAZZIE RACE: Naomi Watts.

    Right now I think 6-7 women are the main competitors for the five slots: Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Adams, Bullock, and Thompson, with maybe Adele E. as the long shot “arty” nominee (but I’m skeptical). Obviously, I could think something completely different once December rolls around.

  21. Watermelons

    Kate Winslet (The Reader, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) will win an Oscar for her role as Adele Wheeler in Labor Day. You are very wrong, perhaps very very wrong.

    -Watermelons

  22. Bryce Forestieri

    I must also clarify my thoughts on other two films:

    Despite the reviews not being universally stellar like his previous effort, Asghar Fahardi’s THE PAST remains high on my most-anticipated list, but, as in the beginning, not particularly because of the presence -and supposed great turn- of lead actress Berenice Bejo as I didn’t much care for what she did in THE ARTIST. A complaint I’ve frequently encountered is that the film is “too melodramatic”. I love well done melodrama so that just reinforces my expectations.

    I had high hopes for Judi Dench in PHILOMENA, but those were irrational borderline-childish wishes because I was waiting for a NOTES ON A SCANDAL turn by Dench in a film with THE QUEEN caliber by Frears, but as I read the film synopsis and skimming through some reviews I couldn’t care less about this movie now. How foolish of me.

  23. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    you either 1) don’t speak English fluently or 2) are trying to be funny and are failing at it:

    1) it’s more likely that you don’t comprehend fluent Watermelonese.
    2) Watermelons is one of the funniest people I know.

  24. good for him/her/it ;)

  25. +1 Watermelons forever!

  26. Blanchett is nowhere near a lock to win because of two things…

    1. Seems like a crowded year with many great female perfs coming down the pipe.

    2. She’s already won.

    If Amy Adams or someone else is just as sensational, they’ll probably get it over Blanchett.

  27. Also…is anyone else tired of Streep hogging up nominations?

    She’s won three already. Doesn’t need anymore. I’m sure there will be plenty of perfs that are at least on par with hers if not better.

  28. moviewatcher

    This is such a great year for Cate Blanchett fans such as myself. Even if she doesn’t end up winning (which is definitely a possibility) we can still say that for more than a few months there it was Blanchett vs the World.

  29. Bryce,

    Cotillard jumps through hoops on THE IMMIGRANT. Unfortunately, James Grey’s movie is dull and lethargic. A pity because as you say, Academy members will turn off after 20 minutes and miss a very good performance (but it’s not as intense as RUST AND BONE).

  30. I’ve only seen Blanchett, but if anyone can top that performance, it will be a miracle.

    Yeah, poor Naomi. Apparently she’s dropped out of (or been dropped from) Queen of the Desert. Kidman is replacing her. Too bad, Watts would have been perfect. Tabloid biopics are poison.

  31. With Naomi Watts completely out of contention, I can’t see anyone beating Cate Blanchett now, except may be Amy Adams. Other nominees this year would be prior winners, so considering that Adams will have a good shot if Hustle is any good. If it isn’t, it should be an easy road for Blanchett.

  32. There’s some sort of weird factual issue going on here. You report Amy Adams has never been nominated. I presume you must mean for Best Actress, as she has four supporting actress nominations. Regardless, it seems misleading to report a four-time Oscar nominee as being “the only one in contention who has not been nominated” in the past.

  33. Steven Kaye

    Of course Blanchett will win. She’s delivered an incredible performance in an acclaimed Woody Allen film which is doing great business at the box office. All the pieces are in place.

  34. how come Watts isn’t mentioned more? Diana seems like the type of movie and role that would guarantee an oscar not unlike what Marylin did gave Michelle Wiliiams

  35. sorry that was poorly worded. I meant, its the type of role that guarantees at least a nomination, just like with Michelle Williams.

  36. Im sooo looking forward to see Blue Jasmine!! Blanchett is rocking the world at the moment. And her several star turns in the theatre productions such as A Streetcar Named Desire, Gross und Klein, The Maids and Uncle Vanya, has made her a must see in her strong return as Jasmine in Blue Jasmine on the big screen

    Though Blanchett won in 2004, she was critically hailed in 2006 for her co-lead in Notes in a Scandal and then her iconic role as Bob Dylan in Im not There. So from the Academy point of view, Blanchett does not feel rewarded. More like its her time to win a Best Actress Oscar

    Rooney Mara gave a strong performance in Side Effects and got raives for her turn in Ain´t Them Bodies Saint. Is she completely out?

    My predicts for noms:
    Cate Blanchett ( the one to beat)
    Adele Exarchopoulos ( french + lesbian + strong movie factor)
    Judi Dench ( the grand old lady nom + possible career win)
    Sandra Bullock ( welcome back + great year + strong movie )
    Emma Thompson ( welcome back )

    I think Kate Winslet will be snubbed because she pumped all the good will and really milked that cow to get her Best Actress Oscar back in 2009. The same with Meryl Streep.

    May sneak in: Brie Larson, Julie Roberts, Julie Delphy, Amy Adams

  37. Ummmmmmmm…

  38. The argument that because of director (James Gray) Marion can’t be nominated could extend to Abdellatif Kechiche and his Blue is the warmest color actresses.
    Marion Cotillard is stunning in The Immigrant and gave, by many critics, the best performance of her amazing career. And even compared the Cotillard’s performance with Meryl Streep in Sophie’s Choice. So Marion must be in the list. Her acting is so much better than Roberts, Winslet, Bullock, Thompson, Larson, and probably better than Amy Adams.

  39. My guesses at this time:

    Blanchett
    Streep
    Dench
    Bullock
    Thompson

    I am just not sure about Adams. I hope to hell she is nominated if it’s worthy but who will she replace? Of those five, I would say Dench or Bullock. I could see her not getting a nom for AH but getting yet another supporting nod for Her.

  40. And for the record, I am predicting HUGE kudos regarding August: Osage County and we will all have to start shuffling our predictions a bit.

    Also, if Streep is still lead…why can’t Roberts go supporting?? Is it too big of a role? I would think Streep’s is just as big and she was going to go supporting so why not Roberts?

  41. What’s going on with Serena? No trailer? Not even a poster! I think it will be delayed to 2014

  42. The Actress race is as crazy as Actor, I feel.

    Blanchett
    Streep
    Dench
    Thompson
    Bullock
    Roberts
    Adams
    Winslet

    I feel like the 5 will be from those 8. And YET …….

    How can you completely count out:

    Kidman
    Exarchopolous
    Delpy
    Cotillard
    Brie Larson
    Bejo

    ?

    They are or may be extremely formidable, as well.

  43. Actually, I thought Watermelons’ comment was pretty funny. Maybe you should lighten up a bit?

  44. Jerry Grant

    I support Kate Winslet for the role of Christ in her upcoming film Labor Day

  45. Bryce Forestieri

    Question:

    So is AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY screening tonight because I thought the premiere was tomorrow, but I see some (e.g. filmboymichael) claiming that it’s tonight?

    I wanna know so I can be alert about pedestrians’ rx’s!!

    I mentioned in another post that it is the only film with the potential to “steal” the People’s Choice Award from 12 YEARS A SLAVE/GRAVITY.

    Silly confusion.

  46. It’s so tough to do this when so many movies haven’t been seen (or have played only at festivals).
    I think that Cate Blanchett will be the only nominee from films that have been in release, and she was so good, she very well could be the winner.
    Because Sandra Bullock’s “Blind Side” win was kinda weak, and because at least one very good performance (Blanchett) is in the mix, Bullock doesn’t win unless “Gravity” = “Sophie’s Choice.”
    Amy Adams is the biggest obstacle to Blanchett — if the performance is there. She’s always good, but rarely great.

  47. I do hope Julia Roberts goes supporting, if she gets raves. That would be the easiest category to go for a win.

  48. Unlikely hood

    Who dies?

    Seriously, and make this a SPOILER-filled reply thread.

    Who dies?

    I don’t know, and I want you to tell me. Srsly.

    If, say, 2 of these leading 10 contending characters die, then those two women are getting nominated. If its 6 of them…rethink

  49. If “August: Osage County” and its stars deliver, then I would hope for a double actress nominations for Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts- just like those great female driven films such as “Terms of Endearment” and “Thelma and Louise.” But other than that, here’s my predictions:

    1. Cate Blanchett
    2. Judi Dench
    3. Sandra Bullock
    4. Meryl Streep
    5. Emma Thompson

    6. Julia Roberts
    7. Kate Winslet
    8. Amy Adams (I still do not have any faith on Amy Adams having a performance that would match any of the other actresses on my top 10. She is due, but she has always been uneven. Great in some films i.e. The Fighter, and almost annoying on some ie. Doubt, Julie and Julia)

    9. Nicole Kidman
    10. Brie Larson

    Golden Globe Drama:

    Judi Dench
    Sandra Bullock
    Meryl Streep
    Julia Roberts
    Kate Winslet

    (with Cate Blanchett, Emma Thompson going to the Comedy category)

  50. blizzards14

    and I’m back!!!

    I think it’s too early to predict the winner here! Here are my two cents worth:

    1. Blanchett will be nominated of course, but a win? Her role, while a character study of a very complex woman, might leave a bitter after taste in the Academy’s mouth.

    I’m sorry but I’ve already lost my faith in the Academy when it blithely snubbed Sally Hawkins for her role as Poppy in the movie Happy-go-Lucky (borderline unlikeable) and Michael Fassbender for his turn as sex maniac in the movie Shame. And by the way, Hawkins may get a nomination this year for a so so performance just like how Maggie Gylenhaal got one for Crazy Heart but was entirely snubbed for her superior turn in Sherrybaby.

    2. Streep will be nominated, again. But will not win for obvious reasons.

    3. Dench – nomination and possibly a win. Why? she was good in Skyfall. The Academy felt guilty about the J.Law win last year and that they would want a very respectable actress to win the race this year.

    4. Winslet will be nominated but a 50/50 chances of winning. Some critics even went gaga over her performance in Labor Day. A guy from Hitflix even said (although not a fan of the movie):

    “Winslet who once again proves she might be the second best living actress on the planet after Meryl Streep (and she is likely the film’s strongest awards player).”

    Read more at http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/review-jason-reitmans-labor-day-is-a-suspensful-ride-if-you-believe#vzi4ttjTtjoEGxXA.99

    5. Adams – she might win if her role as Sydney Prosser is an archetype Academy loves:

    a. The sexy mysterious woman with a heart of gold who has the best script and has the coveted “moral compass of the group” character;

    b. Loud-mouth, scene-stealing, laugh-out-loud funny, a woman with a troubled past who doesn’t compromise and will die at the end of the movie; or

    c. combine the two

    If she’s just a Loud-mouth and scene-stealing woman just like Swinton in Julia or someone who has a troubled past like Maggie Gyllenhall in Sherrybaby, forget about it!

    If it happens, the fifth slot will be given to a “foreign” actress which could be: Delpy, Bejo, Exarchopolous or Cotillard.

    or

    The “young and up and coming” actress which could be Larson, Gerwig, Olsen or Exarchopolous.

    or

    to the flashy actress who has the “Queen of Hollywood” persona such as Roberts, Bullock and Kidman. This because The Oscars needs to hike up its rating.

    I’m sorry but I don’t think Thompson will be nominated this year.

    P.S. – Wasikowska deserves a recognition this year.

  51. I’m voting for Miley Cryus’ performance at the VMAs.

  52. Would be very happy if Cate Blanchett won, as that performance is indelible. Would also be happy if Meryl is fantastic and August: Osage County and she won, because she is 64 and she is not going to keep being nominated every year. Sandra Bullock would throw anyone under the bus to win, including the first two names I mentioned. Julia has deep pockets and she also will campaign. That leaves one spot for Judi Dench. I could be wrong, but there are your five who have the strongest teams (aka money for a campaign) and the greatest goodwill / support from Hollywood.

  53. Normally I’m in the right mood to research the answers to my own questions, but….
    If the nominees are Cate, Kate, Judi, Meryl and Emma, when was the last time (if ever) that all 5 Best Actress nominees had already won an Oscar (even counting supporting)?

  54. Christophe

    My Week With Marilyn actually received decent reviews (84%RT / 65MT) while Diana is a major critical disaster (14%RT / 20MT), and Watts herself is getting blamed for imitating Diana instead of impersonating her.

  55. Nevermind. Did the research. It would be a first for the Best Actress category.

  56. at the end of the day what’s funny or not is a point of view isn’t it?especially when it’s in written form

    “Oh, that’s funny because I say so” or “Of course it’s funny, I know the person”

    I think someone else has to lighten up a bit :) and please let’s not have dictatorship on what’s supposed to be funny/sad/and so on

  57. I think, in the end, Judi Dench will win the Oscar.

  58. blizzards14

    very likely to happen

  59. Mean absolutely nothing – see Meryl Streep’s win for Thatcher. Good acting was the ONLY good thing about that movie – a movie which really sucked IMO!!!

  60. Dench doesn’t look so extraordinary from the trailer, why is everyone picking her for the win…

  61. Philipp Kainz

    The Oscar that Bullock won for the insupportable The Blind Side is enough for the next 20 years.

  62. deerleonard.

    I honestly don’t see Blanchett as a lock (not even for the nomination) at all. She didn’t win for “I’m not there”, where she was absolutely miraculous, astonishing, should’ve been a no-brainer…and we all know how it all ended up. They don’t appreciate her THAT much.
    It is 99% possible that the final winner already have a statue on her living room shelf (or bathroom right Emma?) – the other 1% is basically Amy Adams who I actually don’t see winning a Lead Oscar unless she is absolutely revelatory-
    With this in mind, I only see two possible winners: Thompson and Dench. It will only be Thompson’s if the film is a critical hit (which I doubt, I keep reading that the script is brilliant though). Dench, if you ask me, doesn’t have that barrier.She is f*cking Judi Dench, one of the best actresses in cinematic history; she only has one (consolation) Oscar; she has the Weinsteins behind her; her film is a pedigree crowd-pleaser; the Bafta already has her name carved on it; hers, unlike Blanchett’s, is an extremely likeable character (important factor)…I just don’t see anyone else winning. Adams needs to bring a knock-out performance (a tremendous knock-out) to surpass all that; and, based on the trailer, she is basically doing what Sharon Stone already did on Casino (and you just can’t top that).
    As for Marion Cotillard…she might get a nomination (I don’t see that happening but it is certainly not impossible), but there’s no way they are giving her a second Oscar.

    This is Dench’s to lose.

    P.D: I nearly jumped of joy when I saw Exarchopoulos in your prediction. It would be awesome, what a masterful work! (is a nomination THAT hard to happen?)

  63. If that’s how it pans out, I’d be disappointed. Not because I don’t think they’re all fine actors, but it would feel rather regressive. Here’s hoping some new blood sneaks in.

  64. What do you guys think about the possibility of Keira Knightley being nominated for Can a song…? I think that if the film does good on theaters she could be nominated for the GG in Musical/Comedy.

  65. deerleonard.

    I don’t think the Weinsteins are realeasing it this year, they already have too many contenders to handle, but I have no clue. A Golden Globe nomination is highly probable, but Oscar…Receiving Academy love for a comedy/light role is hard for almost everyone..let alone Knightey who doesn’t receive ANY Academy love even in baity (and wonderfully executed) parts.

  66. I hope Kathryn Hahn gets some attention for “Afternoon Delight.” She’s fantastic. Maybe a Spirit nomination?

  67. What is wrong with you people? Brie Larson will not only get nominated but will win the Oscar for her astonishing performance, remember you heard it from me first right down go to Vegas put money on it!!!!!!!

  68. And if by some fluke Larson doesn’t get nominated it would be a traversty of justice because its the best female performance of the year!!!!!!!!!

  69. filmboymichael

    Scored two tickets to the August: Osage County screening tomorrow morning at TIFF. Can’t wait to share my thoughts with you all!

  70. A word about August: Osage County, before the reviews of the screening come out tonight. I have seen the original play, which I found delightful and very entertaining, But for the fans of the original play who are just waiting to compare Meryl’s and Julia’s performance to Deana Dunagan’s and Amy Morton’s, I have one thing to say to you: Screen acting is very different from theater acting. What was done on stage doesn’t automatically translate well on screen. While they could project their voices n over act in theater, you have to have more subtlety and have a nuanced performance on screen. Film actors get the benefit of close ups, and cuts, they don’t need to overact every scene because simple facial gestures and reactions would suffice.

    I suddenly had a different take on what I’ve seen on Broadway, when I watched the dinner scene on YouTube n showing the character’s faces up close. What was so rapturous on stage, was a little disconnected when watching up close- n that’s where Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts come in. I personally think, just from the few seconds of line reading that was shown on the trailer, that Meryl and Julia will hit it out of the park. Hoping for the first dual Best Actress nominations since Thelma and Louise.

    Predictions:

    1. Cate Blanchett
    2. Meryl Streep
    3. Sandra Bullock
    4. Judi Dench
    5. Emma Thompson
    6. Julia Roberts
    7. Kate Winslet
    8. Brie Larson
    9. Nicole Kidman
    10. Amy Adams

  71. that’s great! please let us know your thoughts!

  72. Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant!!!

  73. I so desperately want to see Delpy’s name be called, but it is looking less and less likely as the field becomes full of celebrated American and British actresses in big, bold, celebrated, showy roles. I think with the distinct possibility of her getting a screenplay nod, her chances of BA are slim to none. Which is a shame, i’ve seen Blue Jasmine, and will be seeing Gravity this weekend, but have a feeling no character will stick in my mind longer than Delpy’s Celine will.

  74. I’m not sure about the argument that you should diminish an actor’s chances of winning because they have won recently. Certainly we can’t know which actors didn’t win because of this dynamic, but there are many who have won twice within 5 years. Off the top of my head:

    Back-to-back:
    Rainer
    Tracy
    K. Hepburn
    Robards
    Hanks

    2 years:
    Brennan (twice)

    3 years:
    Davis
    de Havilland
    Waltz
    Streep
    Foster

    4 years:
    Quinn
    Ustinov
    Spacey

    5 years:
    Field
    Swank
    Day-Lewis

    With Waltz and Day-Lewis accomplishing this feat last year, it seems like the Academy doesn’t mind awarding actors twice within a short period.

  75. With that out of the way, I believe that the Academy will actually pick the actress whom they believed really gave the best performance or who’s had a lasting impression.

  76. I agree with you Alex but don’t think its going to change a lot here’s who I think will get nominated for best actress:
    1.Brie Larson (she so deserves it)
    2.care blanchett
    3.Sandra bullock
    4.Meryl streep
    5 Judi Dench

    Here’s who I think should get nominated
    1.Brie Larson
    2.Care Blanchett
    3.Greta Gerwig
    4.Adele Exarchoupolous
    5.Kathryn Hahn (she’s a real dark horse)

  77. LEAVE WATERMELONS ALONE!

    Many of us have loved Watermelons appearances here for years. Long live the melon.

  78. I honestly don’t see Blanchett as a lock (not even for the nomination) at all. She didn’t win for “I’m not there”, where she was absolutely miraculous, astonishing, should’ve been a no-brainer…and we all know how it all ended up

    Damn straight! I got attacked on the IMDB Movie Awards board for saying that Blanchett might go un-nominated. The one thing Blanchett doesn’t have in her favor is Weinstein. People should never underestimate Weinstein. If he can score a win in the Best Actress category, it’ll be with Dench.

  79. There’s no doubt in my mind that Dench will be nominated — and she might even win too. She’s a 6-time Oscar nominee and her only win was a Supporting Oscar for just 8 minutes of screentime. And that was nearly 15 years ago. She’s nearly 80 years old now. She’s got Weinstein behind her. A win for Philomena is well within reach.

    Also, I would LOVE to see Emma Thompson get nominated for Saving Mr. Banks. Her last nomination was in 1996(!). This role could be seen as her comeback role. The movie seems to have the potential to wind up with several Oscar nominations.

  80. Hey bd74 who is your top 5

  81. You mean my top 5 predictions? I’m predicting (or rather hoping) that the 5 nominees will be:
    Dench
    Roberts
    Winslet
    Thompson
    and either Blanchett or Bejo

    I get the feeling that Bullock’s performance in Gravity is gonna turn out to be overrated. I just get that feeling. But we’ll see.

  82. Bd74
    You don’t think as I do that Brie Larson will get nominated?

  83. My guess:

    Emma Thompson
    Cate Blanchett
    Sandra Bullock
    Kate Winslet
    Meryl Streep

  84. I really haven’t looked into that film. I’ve only read a few tidbits about it here and on another website. But, I don’t think that that performance will figure into the Best Actress race, as this will be a very competitive year. There’s still a bit of uncertainty as to whether or not Meryl Streep will be campaigned as a lead or as supporting for August: Osage County. Also, in order to land a nomination, a performance needs a strong campaign (from the film’s studio) behind it. I don’t think Shortcut 12 will have that.

  85. Boo. Hiss. I predicted Delpy would fall like a lead balloon once the big names came out with movies but it doesn’t make it less annoying. She was robbed of a nomination for Sunset and it looks like the same will happen for Midnight. How disappointing.

  86. Delpy’s only shot at an acting nomination lies with the critics who will hopefully remember her.

    Funny, I thought Hawke in Midnight gave the performance of the year in any category so far, but I’m not pinning any hopes on him getting any recognition because he’s not playing a real person.

  87. Welcome Emma Thompson, after eighteen years. P. L. Travers is author of Mary Poppins, I you remind. The Academy can to name Thompson this year. Great return of Emma in competition. I hope very munch.

  88. Christophe

    I hope very munch too ;)

  89. 1. Cate Blanchett
    2. Meryl Streep
    3. Judi Dench
    4. Sandra Bullock
    5. Julia Roberts

    Amy Adams
    – way OVERRATED. Her supporting performance in The Fighter was great, same director, so maybe she can crack the Top 5, but I am still not convinced as much as all the other Oscar experts are.

    Emma Thompson
    -could be the spoiler for Julia’s big return.

    Kate Winslet
    -film is too divided, to rally enough supporters for a nomination, especially when the other lead actresses are from films that are major Best Picture contenders: Gravity, August: Osage County

    Nicole Kidman
    – still unknown, a big question mark as of now

    Brie Larson
    -will be this year’s Elizabeth Olsen

  90. any of these actresses in my top 10 couldve easily been the winner last year- a very weak year for female roles.. It’s a shame that some of the best actresses working today all decided to have eligible films in the same Oscar season.

  91. Simon Warrasch

    For me, there is and there will be no Actress who can beat Emilie Dequenne in “A Perdre la Raison”. The Best Performance of the year! I have to say! I have no words wich describe her pheonomenal work!

  92. Oh wow thats really bad, i did not know that lol. that sucks though, Watts is a terrific actress.

  93. filmboymichael

    thanks Mike – you’ll hear from me!

  94. YES, it looks like the wonderful late bloomer’s winning streak continues ! Early word after the first screening of THE DISAPPEARANCE OF ELEANOR RIGBY is that it is actually great, so if someone picks it up quickly and releases it this year, Jessica Chastain could go 3/3 and maybe finally the Academy will recognize James McAvoy, as well…although latter is unlikely considering all the heavyweights in Best Actor already.

  95. Bryce Forestieri

    I’m dreading having to wait until late 2014 to see it. Someone pick it up!!

    Splendid rx’s indeed!

    Epic James!

  96. Bryce Forestieri

    Let’s also hope they find a distributor that won’t make them cut 1 second of the 190 minutes!

  97. Well … sort of like how Kate’s performance isn’t going to prove to be the second coming this year, Watermelon’s attempt at humor didn’t quite work this time around. It was kind of mean-spirited, and lame actually.

  98. No surprise there…people are raving about Meryl Streep’s performance in AUGUST : OSAGE COUNTY. What may surprise some that they rave about Julia Roberts, too. With her star status and Harvey Weinstein in her corner, she could make the cut even with massive competition…that of course if the film doesn’t collapse after official reviews and the final critical consensus arrives. A BP nod would help a lot, too, but combining the agressive campaign tactics of Harvey and Clooney, will probably make that happen anyway, even if critical reception will be only lukewarm.

  99. Curious that Roberts wore red to the premiere. That’s usually the color of the scorned woman. She must be feeling feisty about not being the “bride” of the movie.

  100. ++1 Watermelons to Infinity and Beyond!

  101. Here’s what I would do if I were the Academy:

    The nominees for Best Actress are Cate Blanchett….

    bye.

  102. *clink

    I’m with you.

  103. last year was probably the worst year ever for nominated peformances. i havent even seen most of the performances this year but the ones that i have seen blow last year out the water. its been a while since dench has been nominated, id like to see her. im surprised not many people have mentioned nicole kidman or naomi watts as possibles?

  104. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    but it’s really classy and witty to repeatedly invoke humanity’s salvation on the eve of the apocalypse as a reasonable comparison to diminish and disparage the work of one of cinema’s finest actresses. (?)

    and it’s not at all mean or lame to directly insult another reader by saying he’s mean and lame. (?)

    thanks for the guidelines.

  105. Bryce Forestieri

    OK I think I’ve read enough reactions –so now time for gross speculation:

    Sounds pretty enjoyable but far from Major Contender

    Seems like the only surefire nominations its got: Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, with Best Picture pretty attainable just because it ends strong.

    Uphill battle to get a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination –it looks far from a critical darling, like really far. Probably just took a copy of the play, made some deletions, and voilà movie screenplay!

    Best Director, Best Editing, Best Cinematography are all out of the question. Nobody mentioning the score so maybe not even Santaolalla’s effort isn’t all that, even found a negative reference.

    So I’m predicting

    Best Actress (Streep)
    Best Supporting Actress (Martindale)

    and maybe

    Best Picture
    Best Actress (Roberts – can’t they freaking find 4 other performances? always possible with lazy AMPAS)

    Longshots:

    Best Adapted Screenplay (yeah, not happening)
    Best Supporting Actor (Cooper – I only see it if the category turns out to be considerably weaker than expected)

  106. Nobody seems to see whats coming because they don’t follow stats and look at the movies that are coming.

    Cate and Amy are both going to get Best Actress and Best Supporting Noms.

    Cate for Blue Jasmine and Monuments Men

    and Amy for American Hustle and Her.

    Cate will win Best Actress for Blue Jasmine and then Amy will win Supporting for Her.

    As to the rest of the other best actress nominees I’m seeing Dench, Bullock, Winslet, Kidman, and Excarchapolous as the top five battling it out for the three remaining slots.

    I actually think the Academy may be a little Streeped out at this point.

  107. Unlikely hood

    I wish this wasn’t true, but its painfully clear that no one outside of Sasha has seen a majority (that’s at least 3/5) of their predicted slate of nominees. Thus, this thread has about as much relation to reality as the final hour of “Rise of the Guardians.”

  108. Watermelons

    i am very cool and good, actually. namaste

    -Watermelons

  109. Here’s why I say Blanchett or no one even though I haven’t seen the rest.

    I sat in the theater watching BLUE JASMINE and before it was over I wondered to myself if, in my entire career as a movie fan, I’d ever seen a better performance. Not from a female but from a person. So if there is something better this year, we’re going to have to call off the future and end the world right here in 2013. I don’t think we’ll be able to handle what’s next.

  110. from the reviews and reactions that I’ve read so far.. and some tweets from major film critics..

    MERYL STREEP WILL DEFINITELY BE THE CO-FRONT RUNNER IN THE BEST ACTRESS RACE, ALONG WITH CATE BLANCHETT. THE PERFORMANCE WAS SUPPOSEDLY THAT GREAT.

    & THAT JULIA ROBERTS ALSO DESERVES TO BE NOMINATED FOR HER CAREER BEST PERFORMANCE.

    Poor Julia, Harvey tried to give the former queen of Hollywood her throne back by demoting Meryl Streep to a supporting campaign, but sounds like Streep’s performance was just too great.

    Here’s hoping both Meryl n Julia both get nominated.

    1.Cate Blanchett
    1. Meryl Streep
    3. Sandra Bullock
    4. Judi Dench
    5. Julia Roberts
    6. Emma Thompson
    7. Kate Winslet
    8. Brie Larson

  111. Word out of TIFF is Streep shines in AOC, totally amazing.

  112. Both Meryl and Julia are getting rave reviews out of Toronto, while the movie is getting mixed reviews. Why couldn’t have the great Mike Nichols direct the movie instead?

  113. Excerpts from a Review by Jeffrey Wells- one of the Oscar experts on goldderby.com

    Knockout Perfs In Highly Respectable Osage County

    The Weinstein Co’s August: Osage County, which screened early this evening at Toronto’s Roy Thomson Hall, feels a tiny bit abbreviated and doesn’t deliver quite as much of a full-on emotional wallop as Tracy Letts‘ Tony Award-winning stage play, but it’s strong and direct and satisfying enough to give the play’s admirers what they’re looking for. I was intrigued and attuned from start to finish. And the film certainly delivers at least four…make that five top-notch performances — first and foremost Meryl Streep as the bitchy matriarch Violet Weston (an all-but-guaranteed Best Actress nominee), Julia Roberts as her angry daughter Barbara, Margo Martindale as Mattie Fae Aiken, Juliette Nicholson as Ivy weston and Juliette Lewis as Karen Weston.
    The bottom line, I suspect, is that the acting is going to get more awards attention than the film itself, and there’s nothing wrong with that scenario. A:OC might very possibly end up a Best Picture contender but it doesn’t hold a candle, horsepower-wise, to 12 Years A Slave. I’m sorry but it just doesn’t. For the simple reason that Slave is a flat-out masterpiece and August: Osage County isn’t.

  114. Filmboymichael

    I meant tomorrow! Sorry Bryce

  115. At this point, Blanchett, Streep, and Bullock all seem locked in. (I think we’ve all agreed to collectively call bullshit on the idea of Streep getting campaigned in supporting, correct?)

    From the outside looking in, I’d say Blanchett has the best shot at the win. We all underestimate Streep at our peril, however, if she tears into the role the way Hepburn tore through Elenore of Aquitaine in THE LION IN WINTER, she could be dangerous.

    And also, can we agree Margo Martindale deserves major recognition for being one of the best damn character actors in the business? Hoping she makes it into Supporting.

  116. JULIA IS TO BE CAMPAIGNED IN THE SUPPORTING CATEGORY, MERYL STREEP BACK TO LEAD! – according to Tom O’Neil Goldderby.com

  117. I’d say the Screenplay nod is closer to a lock than you’d suggest. Early word says that the film retains many of the source’s bitchiest rejoinders. Even if the film falters in Best Picture, these big ensemble acting showcases usually get some screenplay love (think DOUBt, FROST NIXON, THE CRUCIBLE, LITTLE CHILDREN, etc.)

  118. O’Neil doesn’t make sense to me in a comment. He says at the end that Roberts may not like having to go supporting against Oprah who may very well have supporting actress in the bag. I don’t think Oprah does necessarily, but does he think Roberts would actually have a shot against Cate or Meryl or Emma or Judi?? Seems logical that Roberts is a long shot in either category but has a better shot in supporting so why not?

    Seems like Cate and Meryl are the two for sure locks. I would put Sandra, Judi, Emma, Amy Adams, and Winslet all right there in the 3-5 spots with any combo justified. At this point I see Adams not nominated for AH but for Her, and Winslet being outside looking in.

  119. Watermelons

    Could be an interesting Oscar narrative.

    -Watermelons
    #TeamWatermelon

  120. Cate’s early surge reminds me of Julianne Moore’s seemingly unstoppable train to Oscar for Far From Heaven… we all know how that ended.

    Not to say she’ll suffer the same fate, but don’t count out any of the usual suspects that could sneak ahead with some later-breaking buzz. It’ll come down to who has the heat in January.

  121. Tom O’Neil is full of shit. Julia and Meryl are BOTH co-lead actresses in the film. I feel 100% confident that this time around, the Academy is not going to play into Weinstein’s hands and denote a CLEARLY lead role to the supporting race…Roberts and Streep are just too big of stars for that and both of them are obviously leading this film.

    I’d say Streep gets in and Roberts is left off (although I am confident she will get a Globe nomination).

    As of now, Blanchett/Streep/Bullock/Dench/Thompson are my picks, although this race is so ambiguous and exciting. I am very curious to see how Exarchapoulos fares this season and whether Blue is the Warmest Color has enough buzz and “it factor” momentum to become a formidable player. She could certainly be the critics’ pick (as well as Julie Delpy, Greta Gerwig, or Brie Larson).

    I’m just not feeling Winslet, even though she has gotten great reviews. The film’s reception has been somewhat muted (at least compared to Up in the Air and for Charlize Theron’s revelatory work in Young Adult). I don’t have any idea what is up with Grace of Monaco, but this could be a big bomb. I feel like Emma Thompson is the shakiest of the five women and even though she is one of the greatest working today, and I am not confident at all in John Lee Hancock.

  122. Oh, and Amy Adams. How bizarre would it be for her to win a Lead Oscar after four supporting nominations? Something about that scenario seems off. I’ve never really bought her as a leading lady, as talented as she (can) be.

  123. Christophe

    Academy Awards Rule #6

    “The leading role and supporting role categories will be tabulated simultaneously. If any performance should receive votes in both categories, the achievement shall be placed only on the ballot in that category in which, during the tabulation process, it first receives the required number of votes to be nominated.”

    Which means Meryl and Julia could be voted in both Lead and Supporting Categories by Academy members. If Julia can’t get enough votes to enter the Lead Race, she can still make it into the supporting category. As for Meryl, it’s likely she could make the cut in both categories, so she’ll be nominated in the category where she makes the cut first.

  124. Why do people always act as if Streep were the only star who gets nominations when she doesn’t really deliver something extraordinary?

    Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age!
    Cate Blanchett – Notes on a Scandal (in SUPPORTING), come on!

    Half of Winslet’s nominations.

    Half of Dench’s nominations — Chocolat?! Mrs. Henderson Presents?!

  125. So just read some of the reviews forA.O.C the said sstreep hit it out of the park
    1.Blanchett
    2.Street
    3.Bullock
    4.Dench
    5.Larson (her performance is to good not to get nominated)

  126. David, I could tell from all your comments about Brie Larson that you really love the performance so much, but I’m afraid that its not gonna factor in the race. It could’ve landed in the top 5 last year, could’ve even won because Larson’s performance is easily the best out of any actress from last year. I did see the movie and I thought she was astounding. This year, though, is just one of those rare years that every great Hollywood actress turns in a magnificent performance with a distributor that will actually back then up. Too many names in the mix for Larson to sneak in.. I predict a few critics prizes, but no golden globe, no Sag, no Oscar.

    1. Blanchet
    2. Streep
    3. Bullock
    4. Dench
    5. Thompson
    6. Roberts
    7. Winslet
    8. Larson
    9. Adams
    10. Kidman

  127. Chris
    I totally disagree with you, its one of the best performances of this year she will get an Oscar nomination, she will get an “independent spirit award” mom that’s guaranteed.she will get a “critics choice”nom and one of either a “Sag or a “Golden globe” she will get an Oscar mom. Look at Keisha castle-hughes no one saw that nomination coming

  128. Simon Warrasch

    My question is: What has happend with Naomi Watts in “Diana”? Is she really that bad in the Movie! From the very beginning i saw her at the end with the Oscar in her hands! I’m soo sorry for her! But i don’t care. For me she is still the best Actress!

  129. Bryce Forestieri

    If it’s true (big if) then Margo Martindale is fucked. Can we get official word from the fat-ass about these placements? Ugh.

    Is this Julia Roberts taking one for the team?

    She might even win since they love co-leads gone supporting as of late

    And what is all this bullshit about this being Roberts’ career best? No way this performance is better than ERIN BROCKOVICH, I don’t need to see this movie to know that.

  130. Simon Warrasch

    I think there are probably 4 Locks right now:

    Sandra Bullock “Gravity”
    Cate Blanchett “Blue Jasmine”
    Judi Dench “Philomena”
    Meryl Streep “August: Osage County”
    ?

  131. Bryce Forestieri

    …sorry, a bit overboard here

  132. If Kate will be nominated, she will became the more young actor in History to have 7 nominations, no?

  133. Simon
    How can you say their are 4 locks? I totally disagree with that I think Blanchett and streep are the only Iocks, you probably have 7 to 8 woman battling for the last three spots:Bullock,Dench,Larson,Winslet,exarchopoulous, Kidman, watts,Gerwig

  134. Christophe

    Apparently, the movie is terrible (13%RT/33MC) and Watts is not really convincing. So I would forget about it until further notice. Better luck next time!

  135. Christophe

    Like I said right before, whatever “fat-ass” decides, Academy voters are free to vote for the same performance in both categories so it’s likely that the August fanbase will enter both performances in both categories, in which case the lead/supporting placement will be decided by arithmetics and the competitive degree of each category. Indeed, that doesn’t bode well for Martindale, unless Streep clearly goes lead, in which case it’s possible for August to do like The Help: 1 Lead Nom, 2 Supporting Noms, but given the competitive nature of the Lead Actress cat this season, it’s unlikely to have both Streep and Roberts making the cut in Lead.

  136. Christophe

    4 locks too in my mind though I would replace Dench by Thompson in Simon’s list.

  137. Christophe
    Another one saying there are 4 locks, no way Blanchett, and Streep I’ll give you but the 3 other spots are up for grabs you don’t know how A.M.P.A.S are going to vote so to say there are 4 locks is dumb so no other actress should even campaign for a nom then according to you guys there have been a lot of great performances by actresses this year
    1.Larson (will get nominated)
    2.Blanchett
    3.Streep
    4.Bullock
    5.Dench
    Has a shot to break through
    6.Winslet
    7.Kidman
    8.Watts
    9.Gerwig
    10.Paulina Garcia
    11.exarchopolous

  138. Robert A.

    Unless one of Cate’s competitors is wearing a fake nose that AMPAS can vote for, I’m optimistic that what happened to Moore won’t happen to Cate.

  139. Robert A.

    An Independent Spirit nomination does not guarantee the person will get a Critic’s Choice nomination, and therefore a Globe or SAG nomination. And just because someone gives one of the best performances of the year doesn’t mean that performance will get recognized by Oscar. Every year the Oscar race is littered with remarkable work in small films that don’t get nominations because they don’t have enough money for a campaign or get “out-buzzed” by the heavy hitters with major studios backing them. A sad reality about the Oscar race, but there it is.

    And many people did see a Keisha Castle-Hughes nomination coming, just not in Lead Actress. They were predicting her for supporting actress.

  140. Robert A.

    I agree with David on this one. I don’t think we can say four slots are “locked” at this stage in the game. I do think we can say there are probably four or five performers that the consensus seems to think have a more likely chance at a nomination than the others, but that’s different from saying a “lock.” People toss the word “lock” around way too easily. A couple of years ago, I remember how many people were breathlessly posting that Leo D. in J. Edgar was not only a “lock” for a nomination but was the likely winner.

    I would say Blanchett is a lock for a nomination, but that’s about it. Okay, it’s difficult for me to envision Streep not getting nominated as well (unless the movie completely tanks), but as for the others… Do I think Dench and Bullock have good shots at nominations? Yes. Are they “locked”? No, I don’t think so.

  141. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Every year the Oscar race is littered with remarkable work in small films that don’t get nominations

    Just ask Tilda Swinton. Ask her every year.

  142. Robert A
    Thanks for having my back for people to say there are 4 locks is crazy like I said I’ll Blanchett and Streep are probably locks,but after that the other 3 spots are up for grabs do bullock, and dench have a good shot for 2 spots absolutely does Larson have a great shot for the 5th spot yes she does but like I said there are 5 or 6 others who have a shot at the 3 other spots. Its going to be an interesting awards season

  143. deerleonard.

    Cate Blanchett is not winning. No matter how good her performance is (and it is obviously terrific, she’s Cate Blanchett), unlikeable female characters don’t win Oscars; much less if they can handle the award to:
    a) A trained and overdue granny in a tear-jerker crowd-pleaser (aka Dench)
    b) A hot (and young) leading lady in a salty role (Adams or maybe even Chastain)) -Didn’t you learn anything from Lawrence win?-
    c) A mega-super-hyper movie star (and a very likeable/bankable one) who happens to be quite decent in an also decent movie (we’re talking about Bullock here, who is apparently even more than decent in an even more than decent film)
    d) Meryl Streep

    It is a sad and unfair truth, but the truth afterall.

    As for the nominations..maybe Brie Larson can get in if the critics keep her name fresh (but given the harsh competence, i doubt it), it’s a NO for Winslet (she used the overdue card, and now she is paying the consequences, ask Susan Sarandon), I’m confident on Thompson if the film is any good…not so much on Kidman (she is my favorite out there but something in Grace just doesn’t smell good at all), nor Cotillard.

    I may be wrong but i think it’s Dench all the way.

  144. filmboymichael

    Meryl Streep will in no way, shape or form be nominated for supporting. It just won’t happen – she’s in nearly every scene and she anchors every scene. Whoever came up with that strategy should be fired. There are two leads to this film – Streep and Roberts and they are both deserving of attention.

    I just got home after seeing August: Osage County in Toronto. The theatre was electric with people who were eager to see this film.

    Luckily, a friend of ours was an usher and seated us in the reserved section – Pierce Brosnon sat behind us looking just as cool as ever.

    John Wells presented the movie – he told the crowd that he had just finished editing the previous Friday in LA. I don’t know if he was saying that as an excuse or bragging – but, I would say that he needs to go back to the edit suite and tighten things up a bit.

    The one thing to get out of the way is the towering performance of Meryl Streep – I know we all expect her to bring her A game, but I will say that she displayed some things that I have never seen from her before. Any and all recognition she receives is warranted. Those who say, she has been honoured enough, need to see this performance and try saying that. It’s that good.

    Julia Roberts – who I’ve always tolerated as a star, but have never loved – has never been better. She obviously knew that she would have to bring it if she were going to be believable with Streep and she is outstanding. Both Streep and Roberts during the dinner scene are jaw droppingly good.

    The film does fail the rest of the cast, unfortunately. I’m sure I will get some flack for this, but I felt that another screenwriter should have been hired to adapt Lett’s play. Many times, you feel the constraints of its theatricality, and that’s not a good thing.

    I also feel on film, there are characters that weren’t necessary. Juliette Lewis (who I love), is all but wasted as Karen. She acts as if she’s playing to the cheap seats instead of acting for the camera. Dermot Mulroney has little more to do than look smarmy. Poor Misty Upham’s role as Johnna has been so cut down, the character is barely necessary in the film. That being said, Margo Martindale and Chris Cooper are pitch perfect in their roles, although I do question the casting of Cumberbatch as their son, Little Charlie – those who know the play will know why.

    There will be some nominations for sure for this film, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they are only acting nods and nothing else.

    I didn’t hate this movie, but it didn’t floor me either. I was hoping that it would. I will check it out over the holidays to see if Wells has done and more tweaking to sharpen the edges a bit and make the story flow a little more fluidly.

  145. filmboymichael

    Yes Bryce – it’s a better performance….this is the most layered acting Roberts has ever given. The explosion of rage that comes from her is unbelievable.

  146. filmboymichael

    I think Tom O’Neil is reporting incorrectly. They are both leads. period. the end.

  147. Christophe

    Thank you for that substantiated analysis! Right now AOC has a lame 40% score on RT after only 5 reviews. Might be too soon to judge, but apparently its BP/BD chances are looking very grim given the high quality of this year’s competition. I guess Streep is now a firm lock for a lead actress nom, maybe even the frontrunner in this category, but I doubt Roberts can make the cut into lead given the stiff competition. Do you think it would be such an outrage for her to go supporting since I guess it’s her best shot at a nom?

  148. filmboymichael

    I don’t think the academy would go for that at all. She is a lead just as Meryl is.

  149. Tero Heikkinen

    With a lineup like Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep and Thompson I can actually see Meryl getting the 4th. Academy seems to like make history every now and then and it could be too tricky to choose the actual best from a strong lineup, especially when all of them have already won. Who else could tie with Hepburn if not the queen of acting herself? It would be a STORY, and stories go far.

    Bullock might be the only nominee in a BP nominated film, but they will not give her another trophy – at least yet. I can’t see Bullock winning – against Streep again. August: Osage County is a late December release, and has Weinstein, so it’s gonna be on every actors’ (largest branch) lips come voting time. They might feel like someone has to be given the honour from such a great cast.

  150. Bryce Forestieri

    Kudos for your assessment and take on awards prospects!

  151. I think it’s between Dench and Streep at this point. I’ve felt that way for awhile now. A bit early yet to predict though.

  152. Thanks, filmboymichael!

  153. I would love Blanchett to win the Best Actress Oscar. I loved her performance in “Blue Jasmine”.

    But I feel there are a couple of negatives in her column. Woody Allen has directed many a supporting player to an Oscar in one of his films, but only one lead, and that was Diane Keaton in “Annie Hall”. Correct me if I’m wrong, please.

    Geraldine Page was nominated for BA in “Interiors”, but lost.

    I don’t think any male, except Woody himself, was ever nominated for Best Actor in an Allen-directed film (“Annie Hall”).

    I think that’s something to consider actually in determining her chances.

  154. How about Jessica Chastain’s performance in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby? Reviews so far are great

  155. blizzards14

    The Best Actress Nominees will be like this:

    1. Cate Blanchett
    2. Meryl Streep
    3. Judi Dench
    4. Kate Winslet
    5. Sandra Bullock

    The French Girls from Blue will be invited to the Awards night, so that would be their consolation prize.

    Kidman will present some tech awards during the show, Delpy will be nominated for Screenplay and Gerwig or Adams will host the Scientific and Technical Awards.

  156. Christophe

    We heard the same thing last year abt DDL and how actors directed by Spielberg never won Oscars. It doesn’t mean a damn thing and if Diane Keaton did it, Cate Blanchett can also do it.

  157. Christophe

    I approve your lineup! methinks they are the most likely nominees right now given all we know abt possible contenders. There have been many breakthrough performances this year (Adele, Brie…) but when heavy hitters are on top of their games they usually take precedence over newbies (see best supporting actor last year). I don’t know abt Meryl’s win but it sure looks more probable than ever now after the raves from Toronto.
    As for BP, methinks SMB will also make it in. I still hope Blue Jasmine can get in too though it’s definitely not a frontrunner anymore, and if actors (as you’ve said largest branch) really dig August and its performances it might also have a slight chance at a BP nom, though these 3 films probably won’t make it all in together.

  158. I wouldn’t worry about Martindale just yet, the Academy has no problem nominating more than one supporting actress contender from the same film, if the individual work is considered that great even if the film is not (Doubt, The Help), not to mention four out of the last five years they did have two nominees from the same film in that category (Doubt, Up in the Air, The Fighter, The Help), so I think Martindale could still easily make it even with Roberts in the mix. I’m expecting this lineup at the moment :

    1. Lupita Nyong’O (Twelve Years a Slave)
    2. Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
    3. Julia Roberts (August : Osage County)
    4. Margo Martindale (August : Osage County)
    5. Amy Adams (Her)

    If Harvey can resurrect the Fruitvale-buzz, Octavia Spencer could emerge and if he can pull off a Mandela-campaign that doesn’t focus solely on Elba, Naomie Harris could be a viable threat here, too. Meanwhile I have a hunch that considering her role is extremely likable – so is she – and the film may surprise in BP/BD in the end, Jennifer Garner shouldn’t be ruled out just yet, either…and of course if American Hustle hits big (I’m doubtful), Jennifer Lawrence shouldn’t have trouble gaining traction, either.

    Having said that, if Roberts goes lead, she probably won’t even get the nomination…Streep/Roberts duo at the Globes ? Absolutely. Oscars ? Probably not…although even Academy voters may not be able to resist THAT duo.

  159. I agree, I think Cate has the “over due” factor working in her favor, plus it’s a great role, plus it’s a Woody film.

    But still… it’s only September. Who know’s what happens later on.

  160. That sounds right to me.

    Oh man… does that mean in less than ten years or so we’ll see Kate Winslet hit the double digits with nominations?

    If any actress were to do so, I’d love to see her accomplish that. Despite her usual acclaim, I feel she’s wildly underrated.

  161. Call me crazy but how about both Streep and Roberts for lead actress?

    I know the publicity machine behind the film wants to hedge bets, and separate the two ladies, but I’m so sick of the sexism that divides co-leads of the same gender.

    Same thing happened with Zeta-Jones in Chicago.. a recent example that comes to mind. She won but only because a lead role was stuffed into the supporting category.

    Pardon the mini rant, but I’m watching Terms of Endearment again on Netflix and it’s so refreshing to me when equally deserved ladies get Lead Actress noms.

  162. Christophe

    “Call me crazy but how about both Streep and Roberts for lead actress?”

    It’s a possibility that cannot be ruled out given all the praise she’s received in Toronto. But it seems unlikely to happen in such a crowded year lead-actress-wise. The campaign team (and certainly Julia herself) would much rather see her nominated for supporting than not nominated at all!

  163. Interesting tweet yesterday on August Osage County, which I tried to find this morning w/o luck to give proper credit (sorry, whoever you are).

    Essentially it said the film should receive an Oscar for “the MOST acting”.

    Tells a lot in just a few words.

  164. filmboymichael

    Trust me, there is no logical way to argue that Roberts is a supporting role. There has been category fraud in the past for sure – but this would be like Thelma going lead and Louise going supporting.

  165. filmboymichael

    Was that the tweet that called it “Performance: The Motion Picture”

  166. Christophe

    OK then I take your word for it and I guess if not a frontrunner Roberts may still be on the bubble in the lead category! It’s rather frightening to think there could be so many oscar-worthy performances this year, that some of them won’t get nominated even though they might have won the prize in a weaker year.

  167. Christophe

    “the MOST acting”

    Wait, is that good or bad? Maybe they should add a Best Ensemble category at the Oscars.

  168. Well, Weinstein wants to maximise nominations by splitting it but Academy voters may not play ball ( a la Winslet in The Reader). In which case we could see both nommed in leading, or one missing out altogether…

  169. I saw a lot of actress movies at TIFF.

    I would say Blanchett, Streep and Dench are in.

    Bullock is likely too. Unless there are stronger performances on the horizon. Film could just be nominated for its techs.

    After that there’s the unseen Thompson (if she delivers); Winslet (saw it – could be a miss for her with bigger movies and performances in play). Perhaps Adams for Hustle.

    Roberts could category fraud in supporting or might pop up in lead. But she’s fighting for the fifth spot.

    Right now I’ll guess : Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep, Thompson.

    The win will be between Blanchett and Streep. With Streep winning so recently, perhaps Blanchett can take it. Dench is wonderful in Philomena and it’s a real crowdpleaser with Harvey behind it. She’ll definitely be nominated but for a win – Blanchett and Streep’s performances are splashier.

  170. filmboymichael

    It’s funny – the premiere of Philomena kind of came and went at TIFF – until I read this, I hadn’t thought it premiered yet….and again, unless Wells goes back to the editing room (he should) and cuts a lot of Roberts out of the movie (he won’t), there is no way she can be campaigned as supporting.

  171. “With a lineup like Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep and Thompson I can actually see Meryl getting the 4th”

    Fun facts both important and less important with this lineup:

    Nominations: 5 + 1 + 6 + 17 + 4 ( in acting) = 33
    Wins: 1 + 1 +1 + 3 +1 = 7
    Double noms: Blanchett 2 and Thompson 2 = 4
    Noms for same role: Blanchett as Elizabeth I
    Nom for playing a male character: Blanchett
    Nom for acting/ writing in the same movie: Thompson
    Age: 44 / 59/ 79/ 64/ 54
    Education:
    Blanchett – Australia’s National Institute of Dramatic Art
    Bullock – East Carolina University, N.C
    Dench – Central School of Speech and Drama
    Streep – Yale School of Drama
    Thompson – Cambridge University English Literature

    Official name:
    Catherine Elise Blanchett (Upton)
    Sandra Anette Bullock
    Judith Olivia Dench
    Mary Louise Streep (Gummer)
    Emma Thompson

    Kids:
    Blanchett – 3 sons
    Bullock – 1 son
    Dench – 1 daughter
    Streep – 3 daughters 1 son
    Thompson – 1 daughter

    First nom:
    Blanchett – Elizabeth I – 29 years – 1999
    Bullock – The Blind Side – 46 years – 2010 – won
    Dench – Mrs Brown – 64 years – 1998
    Streep – The Deer Hunter – 29 years – 1979
    Thompson – Howards End – 33 years – won

  172. Christophe

    Sucks to be Bullock, apparently she’s aged 13 yrs in only 3 yrs… thx for those impressive facts, especially the stats. I’ve also read today on the daily beast that harvey weinstein’s films have totaled 321 noms and 78 wins…

  173. Tero Heikkinen

    I heard that they will not cut anything from the film, but they will use the same tactics as in the US version of Eyes Wide Shut to make Julia’s role smaller. Instead of digitally added furniture, we will see a talking bush at the dinner table. The voice will be dubbed by the same guy who played the singing bush in Three Amigos. In one scene the talking bush attacks Meryl and throws her on the floor (there is photo material available from the unedited version).

    Director felt that the film is too heavy, so he wanted to make it lighter. Everybody agreed with his decision and now Julia is going for Supporting (unless the bush beats her there, too).

  174. Because we saw the movie, not the trailer.

  175. Watermelons

    I could see this change clarifying Oscar categorization but harming the overall quality of the film. I’m not sure it’s for the best, but I haven’t seen the film (either version).

    -Watermelons

  176. Didn’t see that, but it seems to be along the same lines.

    Guess that means the film has entered the BP footrace wearing snowshoes.

  177. Blancett in “Blue Jasmine” doesn’t appear to be as popular a choice as Diane Keaton was in “Annie Hall”. Back in 1977, Keaton could do no wrong. And she also had another terrific performance that year in “Looking for Mr. Goodbar”. I don’t quite see the push for Blanchett (as yet) as Keaton had 30 years ago.

  178. I was completely stunned by Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine. She was equally impressive in both her New York & San Francisco scenes. This is the best female performance of the summer. Hopefully by January & February, this role won’t seem too ‘yesterday’s news.’ Seems with Oscar season, it’s always bells, whistles, dog & pony shows for every Oscar hopeful released in December. Very glad that a ‘February performance’ like MCotillard (LVeRose) was able to sustain its impact 1 year after its release.

  179. deerleonard.

    Cate Blanchett overdue? Are you f*cking kidding me? If someone in this line-up can be seen as overdue that’s Dench, only Dench. Can we please stop bringing up the “overdue factor” as if nothing? Peter O’Toole is overdue, Julianne Moore is overdue, Glenn Close, Michelle Pfeiffer, Donald Sutherland was overdue, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet…those are overdue performers.
    Blanchett already has an Oscar and countless (some undeserved, see 2006) nominations.How on earth is that overdue?!!?! What’s next, Jennifer Lawrence is overdue?!

  180. Bullsh#t Dench is more overdue than Cate! Cate should have won for the first Elizabeth movie instead of Paltrow – the Hollywood ‘IT’ girl at the time. Cate should also have been nominated more times for her roles in Heaven, Veronica Guerin, the Gift, Pushing Tin, Charlotte Gray, Bandits, Bejamin Button, The Missing and won for I’m not there. She was fucking nominated for SUPPORTING actress for Notes on a Scandal while Dench was nominated for LEAD when anyone with eyes and have watched the movie know BOTH were co-leads. Yeah Dench might be overdue but Cate Blanchett is also overdue. As for undeserved – which part? If you’re referring to Aviator, well I’ll rather listen to Hepburn’s friends who think highly of Blanchett’s performance than someone who doesn’t even know her. The ‘undeserved’ tag could also easily apply to Dench’s Oscar win for her 8 minute appearance in Shakespeare in Love! You sound like a hypocrite.

  181. You mean ask Julianne Moore, ask her every year don’t you? At least Tilda has an Oscar unlike Julianne – she was robbed by a celebrity actress with a fake nose.

  182. Disagreed – the fact that she’s been nominated that many times disproves the point. Others like Julianne Moore are underrated and should have been nominated more times and won at least ONE Oscar by now.

  183. Another underrated actress that should have won something by now is Annette Benning.

  184. 1) ummm…you do also realise that a lot of her potential competitors, including the ones mentioned have all won previously as well – Dench, Streep, Bullock, Roberts, Winslet, Thompson, Kidman, Cotillard?

    2) yeah, someone out there around awards time might outperform Cate, but it’s highly unlikely going to be Adams, the only person mentioned who isn’t a previous winner. She’s good but not that good – being nominated would be an achievement for her in this competitive field.

  185. ummm…NO – if her performance is Oscar worthy, then it’s Oscar worthy – regardless of whether it’s an annual event or not.

    Yeah yeah, there’s a lot of politics involved in the Oscars and that’s why some of the best performances have not necessarily been rewarded as they should have and others have received awards as belated compensation for screwing the actor/s previously….blah blah… anyway the original intent is about performance…

  186. Cate Blanchett definitely ought to win. Looking back at the winners of the last few years, there’s nothing even close to equally impressive among the ones that have been recently rewarded with the best lead actress award. Compared to Jennifer Lawrence’s Oscar winning turn last year, Blanchett is acting on a completely different level (and I don’t mean just the next level up but several levels higher).

    Granted, the competition this year is going to be tougher than it’s been in a very, very long time, which is unfortunate because many truly deserving performances could be left unrewarded – some even without a nomination – but it’s hard to imagine how anyone could top Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine. The way she inhabits the character throughout her ups and downs is nothing short of incredible.

    If someone else does win, it would most likely be due to one hell of a publicity push, but frankly, after the fiasco of giving Blanchett’s Oscar for her role in Elizabeth to Gwyneth Paltorw, the Academy still owes her that leading actress statue. If performances like the ones she’s given in Elizabeth or Blue Jasmine can’t bring her an Oscar, I don’t see what more she could possibly do to deserve one. There are many actors who have won that award for far less.

  187. To be honest, I think Streep would be lucky to get nominated. She probably will, due to being Meryl Streep, but from what I’ve seen so far, her performance in A:OC seems to be yet another version of Streep playing Streep playing a character.

  188. Bryce, what do you mean by pedestrian rx’s ?

  189. It’s true: Emma Thompson without nominations since Sense & Sensibility, 1996, it’s an scandal. The Academy can to remedy thanks to Saving Mr Banks. Otherwise, it’s an new scandal. Thompson in nomination, please.

  190. I am agree: Emma Thompson goes in nomination. It’s past very much time.

  191. Yes, Emma Thompson in nomination.

  192. Emma Thompson is very talent: actress and writer. I hope, I want this talent in nomination like Meryl Streep.

  193. My predictions are:

    Amy Adams. American Hustle.
    Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine.
    Meryl Streep, August: Osage County.
    Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks.
    Kate Winslet, Labor Day.

  194. I want Emma Thompson in nomination absolutely.

  195. Yes Emma Thompson in top five.

  196. Actor in a supporting role Tom Hanks. Saving Mr Banks to have Oscar also original score oh Thomas Newman.

  197. I answer: ? Mrs Thompson/Travers. Emma goes in nomination after much time.

  198. Hurrah Mrs Thompson.

  199. Hurrah Emma.

  200. I agree about Thompson.

  201. Christophe

    Emma… Oprah. Oprah… Emma. Wil they both meet Oscar next year?

  202. Gage Creed

    Last year was first ever in acting.

  203. it’s funny when people compare things from 30 years ago and now, matters have changed “a bit”, don’t you think? The politics alone are totally different.

    also, what Diane Keaton was in terms of body of work back in 1977 is not what Cate Blanchett is with hers in 2013.

    1) Her name alone is humongous Oscar buzz; 2) it is supported by a great performance + 3) it’s a very good film directed and written by, oops, a 4-time Oscar winner. + 4) the film will certainly hit 35 million in the US, which for a Woody film is a blockbuster.

  204. Auxerre

    Haven’t seen things that haven’t been released yet, but it would be sad if Cate Blanchett won. She’s good but hardly great.

    The best female lead performances I’ve seen this year (and not all of them are Oscar-eligible):

    1. Alanna Ubach, Us
    2. Hadas Yaron, Fill the Void
    3. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
    4. Margareth Tiesel, Paradise: Love
    5. Maria Hofstätter, Paradise: Faith
    6. Rin Takanashi, Like Someone in Love
    7. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
    8. Golshifteh Farahani, The Patience Stone
    9. Emilie Dequenne, Our Children
    10. Danai Gurira, Mother of George
    11. Amy Acker, Much Ado About Nothing
    12. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
    13. Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
    14. Rachel Mwanza, War Witch
    15. Amy Seimetz, Upstream Color
    16. Lake Bell, In A World …
    17. Andrea Riseborough, Shadow Dancer
    18. Saskia Rosendahl, Lore
    19. Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
    20. Jung Eun-Choe, Nobody’s Daughter Haewon
    21 Genevieve Bujold, Still Mine
    22. Waad Mohammed, Wadjda
    23. Geetanjali Thapa, I.D.
    24. Ilana Glazer, How to Follow Stangers
    25. Barbara Sukowa, Hannah Arendt

  205. Patrick C

    I couldn’t agree more Antoinette!!

    I just posted in the new article about the state of the race in the Best Actress category and said almost the same thing. I have seen a ton of movies in 35 years and Cate’s perfomance in Blue Jasmine is the best I have ever seen out of a woman on screen. When you see a character break down like she does (the Frisco scene at the outside table)…she doesn’t need words. I have never been a fan of Woody Allen. I think his movies tend to be over the top and for me, not that funny. But I think this is the best over all movie he has ever made and I hope that he gets recognized as well for helping Jasmine come out on screen.

  206. wtf?! Maybe for you it might be sad if Cate Blanchett won because according to you she’s ‘hardly great’. However, to those of us (and there are many) who love to watch a talented actress deliver an amazing performance when given the rare opportunity to play a complicated and incredible female role it would not only be a much awaited win, but a well deserved one for a genuinely astonishing leading female performance. If not her, then please let it be Judi Dench, another wonderful performance and much deserved leading actress Oscar winner.

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